Synopsis

On
“CROP YIELD PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING”
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the award of Degree

MASTER OF COMPUTER APPLICATIONS

of

KLE TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

By
02FE21MCA004:Aishwarya J Vantamutte.
02FE21MCA005:Aishwarya Kalyan.
02FE21MCA020:Kiran Shelake.
02FE21MCA059:Vidyashree Kambar.

Under the guidance of

Prof.Shrihari Pujar

Department of Master of Computer Applications

KLE TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY’s M S S C E T Belagavi Campus
Udyambag, Belagavi-590 008, Karnataka Academic Year 2022-23
CONTENTS

1.Abstract
2.Introduction
3. Problem Statement
4.Proposed Solution
5.Purpose
6. Scope and Limitations

7. Literature Survey

 Domain Survey
8.Existing Systems
9.Methodology
10. Tools and Technologies .
11.Feasibility Study
12.Hardware and Software Requirements
13.Functional Requirements
14. Non-Functional Requirements
15.References
ABSTRACT:
 Agriculture plays a major role in economic growth and development.
 This proposed system can change the situation of farmers and decisions making in
agricultural field in a better way.
 The parameter includes in the dataset are State Name, Crop Name, Size of the Area(Sqft),
Season and Rainfall(mm).

Problem Statement:
Farmers feel more pressured to embrace intensive farming methods and sustainable agricultural
practices as a result of the serious issues facing the agriculture industry, which will increase
expenses on both an economic and environmental level. To solve this issue, we suggested a
machine learning auto demand and yield prediction procedure. Farmers now anticipate manually
the demand of grains and vegetables hence its influence to farmers economically.

Proposed Solution:
Due to the major difficulties confronting the agriculture business, which will result in higher
costs on an economic and environmental level, farmers feel increased pressure to adopt intensive
farming techniques and sustainable agricultural practices. We proposed a machine learning auto
demand and yield prediction approach to address this problem. Farmers now manually predict
the demand for grains and vegetables, which has an impact on the economy.

Purpose :
Crop yield forecasting is meant to assist farmers, agricultural businesses, and governments in
making well-informed choices on crop management and output. Choosing what crops to plant,
when to plant them, and how to maintain them to increase production are all examples of this.
Crop yield forecasting may assist farmers in maximizing their agricultural methods and making
the most of their available resources and land. To determine which crops are most likely to be
productive in a particular year, for instance, and to modify their planting and management
techniques appropriately, farmers might utilize yield prediction. By doing so, waste may be
decreased and crop production efficiency can be improved. Crop yield forecasting is not only
useful for farmers, but it may also be used by agricultural firms and governments to plan for
future food requirements and make sure there is enough food supply to fulfil demand. This might
contribute to increased food stability and security in both wealthy and developing nations.
Overall, crop yield prediction is a crucial instrument for increasing agricultural production’s
efficiency and effectiveness and for ensuring that there is enough food to fulfil the demands.
Scope and Limitations
Crop yield forecasting is meant to assist farmers, agricultural businesses, and governments in
making well-informed choices on crop management and output. Choosing what crops to plant,
when to plant them, and how to maintain them to increase production are all examples of this.
Crop yield forecasting may assist farmers in maximizing their agricultural methods and making
the most of their available resources and land. To determine which crops are most likely to be
productive in a particular year, for instance, and to modify their planting and management
techniques appropriately, farmers might utilize yield prediction. By doing so, waste may be
decreased and crop production efficiency can be improved. Crop yield forecasting is not only
useful for farmers, but it may also be used by agricultural firms and governments to plan for
future food requirements and make sure there is enough food supply to fulfil demand. This might
contribute to increased food stability and security in both wealthy and developing nations.
Overall, crop yield prediction is a crucial instrument for increasing agricultural production’s
efficiency and effectiveness and for ensuring that there is enough food to fulfil the demands of
the world’s expanding population.

Literature Survey
Domain Survey
Machine Learning: A branch of computer science and artificial intelligence (AI) called
machine learning focuses on utilizing data and algorithms to simulate human learning processes
and gradually improve accuracy. Algorithms for machine learning have the potential to advance,
as was previously stated. Algorithm based computer processes that adhere to predefined stages
have no room for error. There are times where computers make decisions based on the sample
data that is already available, which contrasts with commands that are written to produce an
outcome based on an input. Computers may make mistakes while making choices in some
situations, just like people
Supervised Learning, Unsupervised Learning, and Reinforcement Learning are the three
categories of machine learning.

Supervised Learning :
“Machines are trained using precisely ”labelled” training data, and they are then taught to predict
the result using supervised learning methods. Data that has already been connected to the desired
result is referred to as ”labelled data.”

Unsupervised Learning:
 “Unsupervised learning is a method of machine learning that employs training data sets
without actively supervising the models. Instead, models explore the available data to find
undiscovered patterns and insights. It is similar to learning that takes place in the human brain
while acquiring new knowledge.”

Reinforcement Learning :
”Reinforcement learning is one of the branches of machine learning. It entails taking
actions that will maximize gain in a certain situation. It is used by many software programs and
computers to decide what action to take in a certain situation. Reinforcement learning, in contrast
to supervised learning, depends on the reinforcement agent to decide how to complete the task at
hand. In supervised learning, the training data provides an answer key. In supervised learning,
since the answer is already known, the model is trained using it. In the absence of a training data
set, it must learn from its mistakes.”

Existing Systems:
The amount of crops that will be produced in a particular year is predicted by a variety of
existing methods for agricultural yield prediction using machine learning algorithms and
statistical models. Farmers, agricultural businesses, and governments may utilise these tools to
make well-informed choices about crop management and productivity. The USDA’s Crop Yield
Forecast System (CYFS), which forecasts crop yields for important American crops using a combination
of machine learning algorithms and meteorological data, is one example of a crop yield prediction system.

The CYFS offers projections for a variety of crops, including maize, soybeans,
wheat, and cotton. It is updated often. The Agricultural Model Inter comparison and
Improvement Project (AGMIP), a global research initiative that utilizes machine learning
algorithms and weather data to estimate crop yields for a variety of crops throughout the world,
is another illustration of a crop yield prediction system. In order to better understand how a
variety of factors, such as weather, soil conditions, and management techniques, affect crop
yields, AGMIP comprises a number of regional and global crop yield prediction models. A
variety of smaller-scale agricultural yield prediction systems that are tailored for certain locations
or crops exist in addition to these large-scale ones. These systems may provide forecasts about
crop yields in particular places or for certain crops using a range of data sources and machine
learning methods.

Overall, there are a variety of crop yield prediction systems that are now in use
that employ statistical models and machine learning algorithms to assist farmers, agricultural
businesses, and governments in making well-informed decisions on crop production and
management. These systems may be a useful tool for increasing agricultural production
efficiency and effectiveness as well as for assisting in ensuring that there is sufficient food to
fulfil the demands of the expanding world population.
METHODOLOGY

1. Data pre-processing.

Data Preprocessing is a method that is used to convert the raw data into a clean data
set. The data are gathered from different sources, it is collected in raw format which is
not feasible for the analysis. By applying different techniques like replacing missing
values and null values, we can transform data into an understandable format.

2. Factors affecting Crop Yield and Production.

There are a lot of factors that affects the yield of any crop and its production. Factors
are those like Temperature, Rainfall, Area, Humidity and Windspeed. These are
basically the features that help in predicting the production of any crop over the year.

3. Comparison and Selection of Machine Learning Algorithm

Before deciding on an algorithm to use, first we need to evaluate and compare, then
choose the best one that fits this specific dataset. Machine Learning is the best
technique which gives a better practical solution to crop yield problem. There are a lot
of machine learning algorithms used for predicting the crop yield.

Examples are: Naïve Bayes algorithm, K neighbors Classifier, Ridge Classifier,

K-Means Clustering…
  Tools and Technologies
 Tools
System Processor : i3 4th GEN and Above.
Hard disk : 500GB
RAM : 4GB and Above.
 Technologies
Operating System : Windows 8/10 (64 bit OS)
Programming Language : Python 3.9.12
Framework : Anaconda 4.12.0
Libraries : Keras,
TensorFlow IDE : Jupiter Notebook
Frontend : Flask 1.1.2

Feasibility Study
Technical Feasibility:
It is technically possible to estimate agricultural yield using machine learning. On the basis of
input data like state name, season name, crop name, size of the area and rainfall conditions,
machine learning algorithms and statistical models may be trained on past data to produce
predictions about future crop yields.
Crop yield prediction may be done using a variety of machine learning methods, including
supervised learning methods like decision trees, random forests, and neural networks, as well as
unsupervised learning methods like clustering and dimensionality reduction. These algorithms may be
used to forecast future crop yields based on input variables like state name,season name, crop name, size
of the area and rainfall conditions and can be trained on labelled data sets of past crop yield data. Machine
learning requires a substantial amount of high-quality data in order to create correct predictions. After
analyzing this data, machine learning algorithms may be used to forecast future crop yields. Overall, there
are many algorithms and methodologies that may be utilized to create precise predictions based on a
variety of data sources, making agricultural production prediction using machine learning very technically
feasible. It’s crucial to understand that these projections have limitations in terms of their precision and
dependability, and that there is always some degree of uncertainty.

Economic Feasibility:
The agriculture sector and farmers may benefit greatly from applying machine learning to predict
crop harvests. Making educated decisions about planting and harvesting with the aid of accurate
yield projections may increase productivity and profitability for farmers. The cost of creating a
machine learning model for predicting crop yields will vary depending on a number of variables,
including the amount of data available, the resources needed for data collection and pre-
processing, the complexity of the model, and the price of the necessary hardware and software.
To develop this model, the data is gathered from Kaggle and it is for free of cost and no external
resources used for data collection and pre-processing and the software used to develop this model is
Jupyter notebook, this is a free open source software.

Operational Feasibility :
Operational feasibility refers to the practicality and ease of implementing a project. When
considering the operational feasibility of a crop yield prediction system using machine learning,
you should consider the following factors:

Data availability: To develop this model, there is a require of the data so the data set is
collected from the kaggle and there is efficient data for both training and testing the model, there
are over 70 thousand records in the data set. This data is enough to train and test the model.

Hardware and software requirements: To built this model there is a need of software and
hardware requirements. Software used to built this model is Anaconda Navigator(Jupyter
Notebook) and hardware requirements like PC with processor i3 4th generation and above, hard
disk with minimum of 500gb space and RAM with 8gb and above.

HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

 HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS:
System
 Core i3 processors.
Hard Disk
 500 GB.
Ram
 8 GB / 12 GB
Any desktop / Laptop system with above configuration or higher level
 SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS:

Operating system
 Windows 8 / 10 (64 bits OS)
Programming Language
  Python 3.9.12
Framework
 Anaconda 4.12.0
 Flask
Libraries
 Keras, TensorFlow
IDE
 Jupyter Notebook, Visual Studio code

References
1. A CNN-RNN Framework for Crop Yield Prediction by Saeed Khaki.
2. Leo Brieman, Random Forests, 2001
3. Priya, P., Muthaiah, U., Balamurugan,M. Predicting Yield of the Crop Using Machine
Learning Algorithm,2015
4. https://openweathermap.org
5. Tensor flow tutorial by W3schools.
6. Keras: the Python deep learning API