ACM -Visual time series forecasting: an image-driven approach

Authors : Srijan Sood, Zhen zing, Naftali cohen,Tucker Bolch,Manuela Veloso

To make judgments, agents need to be able to forecast time series. To forecast given previous
numerical values, conventional ways use statistical techniques. In reality, forecast reasoning is
frequently done by end users using representations like charts and graphs. We re-imagine the
subject by developing a cutting-edge framework to make visual forecasts in a manner that is
comparable to how people naturally do it, drawing on the experiences of practitioners. We
extend the subject of time series forecasting to a visual context in this work by utilising deep
learning advancements. In order to create the output image, we first collect input data as an
image.
Instead of forecasting pointwise values, this method produces distribution predictions. We look
at a variety of complex real-world and synthetic datasets. Our research demonstrates that while
visual forecasting is useful for cyclical data, it is less so for irregular data, such as stock price.
Importantly, when utilising image-based assessment criteria, we discover that the suggested
visual forecasting approach outperforms a number of numerical baselines, including ARIMA and
a numerical variant of our method. We illustrate the advantages of using vision-based methods
for forecasting tasks, showing how they can improve forecast quality as well as the metrics that
can be used to assess them.
Before employing computer vision techniques to extract local characteristics, we first convert
time series into recurrence plots. Averaging of the forecast model is done using the retrieved
features. Our tests demonstrate that forecasting based on automatically extracted characteristics,
with less manual labour and a more thorough view of the raw time series data.

ACM- SWGARCH model for time series forecasting

Authors : Mohammed zaki shber , ku Ruhana ku mahamud , Mahnod othman
The majority of prediction issues focus on one-step ahead forecasting and use linear
conventional models like auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) or generalised
auto regressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). The use of any prediction model for
multi-step or N-step ahead prediction, however, introduces two challenges as N rises. The first is
a decline in prediction accuracy, and the second is a breakdown in data dynamics or trend over
the course of the entire forecast horizon.
The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is one of the
most widely used time series models for time series forecasting. The GARCH model calculates
the long run variance, however it does not take into account the impact of the current volatility
because it uses historical data. The sliding window GARCH (SWGARCH) model, an
improvement of the GARCH model to get around the variance restriction,. The main purpose of
the sliding window method is to estimate the variance in the SWGARCH model.
SWGARCH can be utilised for time series forecasting, according to the experimental results,
which shown that it performs better than GARCH and ARIMA-GARCH.
Keywords :
A statistical model called GARCH can be used to examine a variety of financial data, such as
macroeconomic data. This model is usually used by financial organisations to determine how
volatile returns on stocks, bonds, and market indices will be.
It is discovered that the GARCH model successfully captures the volatility while the ARIMA
model is unable to do so.
The use of prior time steps to predict the next time step is called the sliding window method