Hong Kong Baptist University

Higher Diploma - Business Mathematics Name: ___________________( )

Topic 07 Forecasting (Extra worksheet)

1. The personnel department of a company is concerned about absenteeism among its shop
workforce. The mean number of absentees per day is given in the following table for each
quarter of the year 2006 to 2008 and quarter 1 of 2009.

Absentees Seasonal Diff

Year Quarter MA CMA
(a) (a – CMA)
2006 1 25.1
2 14.4
3 9.5
4 23.7
2007 1 27.9
2 16.9
3 12.4
4 26.1
2008 1 31.4
2 19.7
3 15.9
4 29.9
2009 1 34.5

(a) Plot the data on a graph (leave space for the remaining 2009 figures)

07_Forecasting_WS_extra.docx 1
Hong Kong Baptist University
Higher Diploma - Business Mathematics Name: ___________________( )

(b) Use the method of moving averages to determine the trend in the series and super impose
this on your graph.

(c) In this case, as the additive model gives smaller MSE, additive model will be used.
Complete the following table.

Quarter 1 2 3 4
2006
2007
2008
Average Sum =
Adjusted Sum =

(d) Given that the trend equation of centered moving average is y = 0.7585x + 16.092,
forecasts of the mean number of absentees there will be in the remaining quarters of 2009.

Period x Trend Forecast Absentees

2 14
3 15
4 16

07_Forecasting_WS_extra.docx 2