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The impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture: the spring 2012


floods in Somerset, England
J. Morris1 and P. Brewin2
1 School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Cranfield, UK
2 Somerset Drainage Boards Consortium, Highbridge, UK

Correspondence Abstract
Joe Morris, School of Applied Sciences,
Cranfield University, Cranfield Campus, Exceptional rainfall in spring 2012 caused widespread flooding and damage to
Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK agricultural grasslands in Somerset in south western England, much of them
Email: j.morris@cranfield.ac.uk farmed under agri-environment agreements. The seasonal timing of the flood
and its relatively long duration (in excess of 4 weeks in some areas) led to a
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12041 serious loss of grazing and winter feed in 2012. A survey of farmers, combined
with the development of a framework to estimate the impact of seasonal flood-
Key words ing, identified the effects on farm businesses and the ways that farmers coped.
Costs; damage; economics; environment;
Impacts on agri-environment outcomes were valued at the cost of funding
farming; floods; grassland.
stewardship schemes. The methods and estimates can help inform strategies to
deal with changes in flood risk in areas of agricultural and environmental
interest, whether induced by changes in catchment land use or climate.

Introduction tant by the growing and sometimes competing concerns


about food security and environmental stewardship.
Exceptional rainfall in spring 2012 caused widespread flood-
In this context, using a case study of the spring 2012
ing and damage to agricultural grasslands in the Somerset
floods in Somerset, we report on (1) the impacts of seasonal
Levels and Moors in south western England, much of them
flooding on agriculture at the field, the farm and the sub-
farmed under agri-environment agreements. While flooding
catchment scales (flooded areas as a whole); (2) how farmers
in winter is a fairly common event, flooding in spring and
coped with the floods; and (3) the impacts on farmers
early summer is unusual and much more damaging. It is at
and the economy. We also describe the methodological
this time when grassland is at its most productive, when
framework developed for this purpose. The results and the
overwintered livestock is turned out or pastures are ‘close-
approach can be compared with those of the ‘Impacts of the
up’ so that grass can be cut in the early summer for winter
Summer Floods on Agriculture in England’, previously
feed. Whereas grassland can generally tolerate flooding
reported in this journal (Posthumus et al., 2009), and the
during the winter dormant period, this is not the case in
broader assessment of the summer 2007 floods in England
spring or summer, especially for ‘improved’ agricultural
across all sectors (Chatterton et al. 2010).
grasses.
Following a description of the flood event, the methods
Agricultural areas in flood plains could face greater expo-
used are summarised, followed by a description of land use
sure to flooding in the future due to changes in catchment
and farming systems. A framework developed to assess
land use that increase run-off and also due to climate change,
agricultural impacts is explained and applied, followed
including the increased intensity of rainfall events. At the
by a high-level assessment of agri-environmental impacts.
same time, agricultural, and particularly grassland areas, are
Results are aggregated to provide estimates at different
perceived to be of low priority when it comes to public
scales. The implications for flood risk policy are considered.
funding of flood protection relative to the priority given to
urban areas. Indeed, in some areas, agricultural land is inten-
tionally used to store flood water temporarily in order to
avoid urban flooding. For these reasons, there is a clear need
The spring 2012 flood event
to understand the implications of changes in flood risk for After a period of unusually dry weather, exceptionally heavy
agricultural land as part of a coordinated approach to sus- and prolonged rainfall at the end of April 2012 caused severe
tainable flood risk management. This is made more impor- flooding land in the Somerset Levels and Moors in south

© 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140
Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture 129

west England. Exceptionally high river flows over many days the Currymoor Drainage District were interviewed, account-
overwhelmed river embankments and resulted in wide- ing for over 80% of the area. Two farmers in adjoining moors
spread flooding on about 5000 ha of farm land (Brewin, were also visited to determine whether impacts were similar.
2012). The Drainage District of Currymoor in the Tone Data on flood extent and duration were recorded by the
catchment (grid reference ST323273) was among the worst Somerset Drainage Board Consortium and the Environment
affected areas with over 650 ha flooded for more than 2 Agency. Information on agri-environment agreements was
weeks, in places to a depth of 2.5 m, and a further 150 ha obtained from Natural England.
flooded for less than 2 weeks. Across the Somerset Levels and The financial costs of agricultural flood damage incurred
Moors as a whole, an estimated 5000 ha were flooded for by farmers were estimated according to the type of impact,
more than 2 weeks, mostly in the Tone and Parrett catch- farming system and land use, and farmer coping strategies.
ments (Brewin, 2012). Costs were aggregated at the field, farm and flood area scales.
Under normal river conditions, Currymoor discharges via The loss of agri-environment benefits was also assessed in
a pumping station into the tidal River Tone, which joins the terms of the values implicit in the European Union (EU)-
River Parrett downstream at Burrowbridge. Overtopping on funded agri-environment payments and scheme administra-
the River Tone quickly filled and exceeded the 10 million m3 tion costs (Natural England, 2009). An estimate was derived
flood storage capacity on Currymoor, and waters spilled over of the cost of the flood event to the national economy which
into the adjacent moors. There was significant disruption to can be used to assess the public worth of flood risk manage-
main and secondary highways. Residential properties were ment interventions (Environment Agency, 2010). The meth-
not flooded. odology developed here, modified to suit local conditions, is
High water levels in the Parrett and Tone prevented evacu- generally suitable for the assessment of seasonal flooding in
ation of water from Currymoor for over 2 weeks, and in spite other predominantly grassland areas.
of the installation of extra pumping capacity, it took a
further 2 weeks to reduce flood level and volume signifi-
cantly. As a result, flood waters on Currymoor turned
Land use and farming systems
anoxic. When river levels dropped, pumping of anoxic water Farming and land use on Currymoor are characterised by
from Currymoor was slowed to prevent damage to fish grassland systems mainly supporting dairy production and
stocks in receiving waters, extending the duration of flood- the fattening of dairy or beef cow calves and store cattle
ing on the lowest areas of Currymoor to a maximum of (Table 1). The average area flooded per farm was 38 ha (96
6 weeks. acres), accounting for an average of 28% of farm total area,
Large areas of Currymoor remained under water for although this proportion ranged from 18% to 52%. About
between 2 and 4 weeks, in some cases longer. ‘Improved’ 47% of the flooded grass areas were associated with dairy
grassland, intolerant to non-winter flooding, was severely production and 53% with mainly fat cattle, consistent with
damaged with little prospect of recovery, confirming the the proportions of dairy and fatstock cattle numbers for this
vulnerability of agricultural grassland systems to spring/ part of Somerset (Defra, 2004). Most livestock farms in Cur-
early summer floods of longer than 2 weeks in duration. The rymoor were previously dairy farms, switching to less inten-
floods also seriously damaged habitats, wildlife (including sive suckler beef and/or the fattening of store cattle in the last
soil invertebrates) and the natural environment in this inter- 10–15 years or so, in common with general trends in the
nationally important wetland area. region.
There is concern, particularly expressed by farmers, that The flood occurred during spring when fields dry out
the capacity of the main river channels has reduced over the after the winter, and stock are turned out to grass or pas-
last 20 years due to a general cessation of dredging and tures are prepared for the conservation of winter feed.
changes in maintenance regime. It is possible that changes in For the most part, for logistical reasons, the Levels and
urban and agricultural land use in the upper catchments, Moors are mainly used for the grazing of suckler beef and
combined with greater frequency of heavy rainfall events, fatstock (6–28 months), dairy replacements (6–26 months)
serve to increase the probability of peak flows and flooding and some sheep with lambs. The conservation of winter
of the Moors, but this remains unsubstantiated. feed, mainly of baled hay and silage, is carried out in early
July.
Large parts of Currymoor are managed under Higher
Methodology Level Stewardship (HLS) (Natural England, 2010) that
Following general reconnaissance of the flooded areas, farm targets priority environmental outcomes within the national
visits and semi-structured interviews, each lasting about 2 h, programme of Agri-Environment Schemes (AES). The latter
were carried out at the end of May 2012, 4 weeks after the is supported by the Rural Development Programme for
onset of flooding. Nine farmers occupying about 880 ha in England 2007–2013 with EU funding from the European

J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140 © 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
130 Morris and Brewin

Agricultural Fund for Rural Development, part of the

cattle: hay/silage for winter feed

cattle: hay/silage for winter feed


Grazing for dairy replacements:

Grazing for sucklers and store

Grazing for sucklers and store


Common Agricultural Policy (Natural England, 2009). The

and sale. Withy plantations


AES are voluntary agreements that pay farmers and other

hay/silage for winter feed


Land use in flooded area

Including withy plantations. Two additional farms were surveyed in adjacent Moors: 1 in Northmoor (arable and livestock, size: 240 ha, 13% flooded) and 1 in Wetmoor (size 100 ha, 60% flooded).
land managers to manage their land in an environmentally
sensitive way. The Higher Level Stewardship Scheme (HLS)
agreements on Currymoor prescribe conditions for fertiliser
use, stocking rates, grazing and grass-cutting dates, and in
some cases ditch and water management level conditions. In

and sale
this respect, the Levels and Moors are managed as relatively
extensive wet grasslands within dairy and fatstock farming
systems that usually also occupy adjoining land on higher
Range %
18–27%

19–45%

21–52%
ground.
Proportion of

The impacts of flooding are felt well beyond the geo-


farm flooded

graphical boundary of the flood plain themselves and


beyond the immediate period of flooding. As a consequence,
Average %

18%–52%
the impact of the flood on farms and the strategies to cope
25%

27%

36%

with it vary considerably according to farm type and circum-


stances. Farms with a greater proportion of their area subject
to flooding are clearly more vulnerable.
16–60 (40–150)

24–60 (60–150)
29–34 (72–85)
Area flooded per farm

28%
ha (acres)
Range

Types of impact
Flood impacts on agriculture were identified at the field and
16–60 (40–150)

farm scales. At the field scale, discussions with farmers iden-


40 (100)

31 (80)

39 (97)

tified the following main impacts:


ha (acres)
Average

• emergency evacuation of livestock;


Table 1 Farm characteristics in Currymoor Drainage District and spring 2012 flood areas

• prevention of access to spring grazed pastures, requiring


animals to be housed or relocated to other flood free areas,
88–232 (220–580)

76–152 (190–380)

108–148 (270–370)

• damage to pastures and grass production in the worst


affected areas involving complete loss of grazing or silage/
38 (96)

hay making for 2012.


ha (acres)

• loss of yield, and quality on willow (Salix) plantations and


Range
Farm size*

on arable crops were affected;


• damaged drainage systems and field infrastructure;
• loss of beneficial soil invertebrates, especially earthworms,
76–232 (190–580)

increased risk of animal disease, such as liver fluke infes-


161 (403)

114 (285)

121 (303)

tation ( fasciolosis).
ha (acres)
Average

At the farm scale, farmers identified a range of impacts


comprising extra costs, lost revenue and other impacts
(Table 2). Extra costs mainly involved the replacement cost
of grass feed for grazing or winter feed, the likely need to
137 (343)
surveyed
of farms
Number

reseed pastures in the most damaged areas, and replacement


4

cost of quality willow material. Losses of revenue were asso-


ciated with reduced net income from fatstock and reduced
Overall average and range

hay sales. Even where farmers ‘saved’ the costs of hay or silage
*Owned and tenanted land.

making, these savings represented losses in income for other


Arable† and livestock

local farmers providing contractor services. Virtually all


Livestock: cattle

reported agricultural losses were not insured. This is consist-


Mainly dairy

ent with observations from the 2007 floods in England


Farm type

where less than 5% of a total loss of £50 million was covered


by insurance, mostly for damage to buildings and machinery
(Posthumus et al., 2009).

© 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140
Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture 131

Table 2 The main financial impacts on farm businesses of the Table 3 The main types of coping strategies taken or proposed by
spring 2012 in Currymoor Drainage District and surrounding areas farmers to mitigate the impacts of the spring 2012 flood in Cur-
rymoor Drainage District
Increased costs
• Costs of livestock emergency evacuation and relocation, Adjustment to livestock feeding regimes
• Additional costs of livestock housing, yard feeding and • Extended offsite housing and yard feeding of stock
bedding, including labour and machinery • Purchase of replacement feed
• Replacement cost of (1) grazed grass and (2) conserved grass • Modifications to feeding regimes and rations
(baled silage/hay and clamp silage) and associated bought Adjustments grassland management
feeds/rented keep/ modifications to diets • Substitution of grassland use within the farm, using land
• Reseeding costs on damage pastures (possible reseeding otherwise conserved for grazing
species rich grassland) • Substitution of temporary grass with late planted silage
• Repairs to farm gates, ditches and structures maize
• Extra pumping costs: pump purchase, repairs and fuels • Temporary increased inputs on non-flooded grassland
• Purchases and use of machinery to clear debris and surface • Whole crop harvesting of cereal crops for livestock feed
trash Adjustments to farm purchases and sales
• Purchases of substitute willow products to maintain supply • Modification to livestock purchase and sale regimes, including
chain contracts breeding livestock
Loss of revenue • Reduced off-farm sales of marketable surplus feeds
• Yield loss on cereal crops in some areas • Buy in replacement willow products to maintain supply chain
• Premature sales of livestock for which feed is not available obligations
• Reduced purchases of store cattle for grass fattening and Other
finishing • Increased private pumping and drainage works
• Reduced sales of hay and rented keep • Changes to farm development, to accommodate flood
• Loss of contracting work as a source of revenue impacts
Other impacts • Bank borrowing
• Reduced carrying of replacements for dairy herds, reduced
culling of older dairy cows
• Substitution of temporary leys (within and beyond flooded with a permanent loss of production or changes in land use
area) with late drilled maize to increase output
and farming system. If such flood events are perceived to
• Increased inputs on parts of farm not flooded.
• ‘Savings’ in costs associated with reduced output and
occur more frequently, however, the latter may apply.
operations, for example hay making The general formula for estimating the costs of the spring
• Impacts on revenues and costs in subsequent years associated event is:
with recovery of grassland, dairy and livestock production
C farmflood = (Dcrops − Scrops ) + (L sales − Ssales ) + E production + Omisc
where
Coping strategies Cfarmflood = costs of the flood event at the farm scale
Farmers reported a range of actual or intended coping strat- Dcrops = damage to crops and grass (e.g. loss of value of crop
egies (Table 3) taken to lessen the impact of reduced avail- yield and/or quality)
ability of grass feed. Most perceived a need to purchase Scrops = savings in avoided costs of crops or grass production
replacement feed or to use hay normally sold off farm, or to (e.g. savings in silage making costs for farm consumption)
reduce purchases or make premature sales of store cattle for Lsales = lost revenues from sales (e.g. fatstock, hay, contracting
fattening. In most cases, farmers reported a range of coping revenues)
strategies, reflecting variations in circumstances and prac- Ssales = savings in avoided costs of sales (e.g. costs of hay for
tices. The type and efficacy of measures taken to cope with sale, animal feeds)
the impacts of the flood will become more evident through Eproduction = extra production costs (e.g. animal housing,
the year. reseeding)
Omisc = miscellaneous other costs (e.g. infrastructure
damage, clean-up, financing)
Costs can be estimated at the individual farm scale and
Impact scenarios and costs grossed up for the whole flood area. The spring flood also
Impacts and coping strategies provide the basis for estimat- seriously affected the HLS conservation areas. These losses
ing the financial consequences of the spring floods. The can be valued at the cost of providing these services, as
event is treated here as a one-off extreme event that nega- explained below.
tively impacts on the farm production in 2012, with some At the time of the survey, it was not clear exactly what
possible costs associated with full recovery and reinstate- actions farmers would take to reduce the impacts of the
ment during 2013. In this respect, the flood is not associated flood on their businesses. Much depends on farm circum-

J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140 © 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
132 Morris and Brewin

stances and practices. Farmers may choose to replace lost Damage to crops and grass less savings in
grass with bought feed, reduce sales of surplus hay or reduce avoided costs (Dcrops-Scrops)
the number of fattened livestock. They may decide that a
combination of these actions is required. Loss of energy from grass and associated costs
For this reason, costs associated with each possible
response are considered separately in turn. Care must be The spring floods completely destroyed the year’s growth of
taken to avoid double counting. For example, if the entire grass in the worst affected areas. The potential energy from
loss of grass is measured in terms of replacement feed, it is grass depends on the quality of the site class for grass growth
inappropriate also to assume reduced revenue from cattle as determined by soil and weather conditions, field drainage
sales, or vice versa. Also, farmers ‘save’ the costs of employing conditions, nitrogen application and grazing/cutting
contractors to harvest their grass feed when they purchase regimes (Doyle, 1982; Thomas and Young, 1982; Doyle and
replacement feed. Allowance is made for this accordingly. Elliot, 1983; EBLEX, 2011a).
These savings are, however, a loss of revenue (net of costs) Estimates of dry matter production (tDM/ha) were
for farms providing contracting services that are no longer derived using functions reported by Doyle (1982) and
required. Thomas and Young (1982) for sites with ‘very good’ grass
The spring flood is likely to impact on the productivity of growth potential and good drainage under normal condi-
land and farm businesses beyond 2012 in those areas most tions (see Table 4 and supporting notes). This is done for the
seriously affected, depending on the rate of recovery. Con- three main observed grassland management systems that
sideration is given to these subsequent effects. The compo- differ in terms of fertiliser use (A, B, C), and whether grass is
nents of flood damage costs are considered in turn. grazed only (A1, B1, C1) or has one cut hay/silage plus

Table 4 Estimated grass energy production and loss of value for different grass management systems in Currymoor Drainage District due
to flooding exceeding 2 weeks duration in spring 2012
Land use A1 A2 B1 B2 C1 C2
Management regime HLS (Org) cut HLS (Org) grazed HLS cut HLS grazed Non-HLS cut Non-HLS grazed
Nitrogen on grass
Chemical kgN/ha 0 0 50 50 75 75
Organic kgN/ha 50 50 25 25 25 25
Total nitrogen kgN/ha 50 50 75 75 100 100
Grass yield* tDM/ha 4.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 6.2 6.2
% cut for hay/silage % area 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0%
Grass grazed† tDM/ha 1.85 4.74 2.15 5.51 2.44 6.25
Grass cut† tDM/ha 3.79 0.00 4.41 0.00 5.00 0.00
Total DM tDM/ha 5.64 4.74 6.56 5.51 7.43 6.25
Grass energy‡ MJ/ha 46 370 37 181 53 898 43 217 61 071 48 969
Stocking rate§ LU/ha 1.39 1.11 1.61 1.29 1.83 1.47
Grass energy lost % MJ 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Grass energy lost MJ/ha 46 370 37 181 53 898 43 217 61 071 48 969
Value of grass lost¶ (a) £/ha 561 450 652 523 739 592
Savings hay/silage costs|| (b) £/ha 133 0 154 0 175 0
Net cost (a–b) £/ha 428 450 497 523 564 592
Net cost: 50% cut, 50% grazed £/ha 439 510 578
Land use in flooded area % 15% 75% 10%
Av net cost weighted by area £/ha 506

Notes: HLS – Higher Level Stewardship Scheme, HLS (Org) – Organic option, Non-HLS – other. Units: N, nitrogen; tDM, tonnes dry matter; MJ, Megajules;
LU, grazing livestock unit (1 dairy cow = 1 LU equivalent).
*Estimates of grass yield tDM/ha based on Thomas and Young (1982); Doyle (1982). Assumes ‘very good’ site class for grass growth based on soil type and
climate. Assumes ‘good’ drainage conditions April to September. Grass yield (tDM/ha) = 0.0344199N - 0.000029N2 + 3.094, where N = kgN/ha chemical and
organic applied and as field dung.

DM production for single cut grass regime as a proportion of DM for grazed grass only: = 1.19, comprising 0.39 for aftermath grazing and 0.8 for cut grass
components, after Thomas and Young.

Usable energy value of grass: grazed = 11 200MJ/tDM ¥ 0.7 utilisation factor = 7840 MJ/tDM. cut grass = 10 400MJ/tDM ¥ 0.8 utilisation factor = 8400
MJ/tDM.
§
Stocking rates: 1 LU = 33 400MJ/LU required from grass at typical diets (1 dairy cow equivalent).

Replacement cost of grass energy £0.012/MJ based on barley equivalent.
||
Cost of hay/silage making £35/tDM all operations.

© 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140
Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture 133

aftermath grazing (A2, B2, C2). Farm surveys indicated that less saving in hay making costs (£123/ha), is about £400/ha.
systems A, B and C accounted for about 15%, 75% and 10%, Adding the value of aftermath grazing at £50/ha for late-
respectively, of the total farmed area subject to long-duration season rented ‘keep’ gives a total cost of about £450/ha for
flooding in Currymoor. The method can be adapted for this land use scenario.
other grassland systems. About 32 ha (80 acres) of willow plantations for charcoal
Using this method, estimated dry matter (DM) conserved and weaving products were flooded in Currymoor. Produc-
hay/baled silage yields range between 3.8 and 5 tDM/ha. This tion for the coming year has been stunted, equivalent to an
accords reasonably well with estimates provided by farmers, estimated loss of about 15% biomass according to the pro-
based on numbers and weights of bales, of 2–2.5 t wet matter ducer. As a result, there will be a shortfall in stem quality to
(WM)/acre, equivalent to 4.3–5.4 t/ha DM (although there meet charcoal grade. Replacing this loss by imported raw
was some uncertainty about the actual weights of individual material to maintain supply chain commitments will cost
bales). £16 000, equivalent to £500/ha. This is similar in magnitude
Estimated grass tDM was converted to utilisable grass to the losses incurred on grassland valued either for hay sales
energy MJ/tDM assuming grazed grass at 11 200 MJ/tDM (plus aftermath grazing) or at replacement cost of feed.
and 70% utilisation by animals, and conserved grass at
10 400 MJ/tDM and 80% utilisation. Field observations con- Loss of revenue from cattle sales
firmed the likelihood that the entire year’s grass energy pro-
duction would be lost, of which about 50% is grazed and Some farmers reported loss of revenues due to premature
50% is cut by area. sales of store cattle or reduced purchases of cattle for fatten-
Grass energy was valued at the cost of replacement barley ing and finishing. Assuming average live weight at 450 kg/
feed (£0.012/MJ as fed). Estimated damage cost ranges head, relatively strong current beef prices, average live weight
between about £440/ha and £580/ha (net of savings in gain at grass of 1 kg/day and DM/day grass consumption at
avoided hay/silage making costs), depending on potential 0.02 of body weight (EBLEX, 2011b) give a loss of margin
grass yield (Table 4). Weighting by area of grassland systems equivalent to about £780/ha net of savings in costs (Table 5),
gives an estimated average cost of just over £500/ha. ranging between about £670 and £870/ha for the land man-
agement options in Table 4. Financial returns from fattening
Lost revenues from sales less savings in avoided of store cattle, however, vary considerably according to man-
costs of sales (Lsales–Ssales) agement practices (Nix, 2011).

Loss of sales from hay and withy production Loss of revenue from contractor services

A number of farmers reported lost sales of high-quality hay Most hay/silage making in Currymoor is undertaken by con-
for the equine industry. Assuming relatively firm prices at tractors, many of whom are local farmers providing services
£90/t WM, the loss of sales at typical yields (5.8 tWM/ha), as a supplementary farm-based business. ‘Savings’ to farmers

Table 5 Estimating losses from reduced fatstock sales due to grass shortages
Grass yields (usable) a tDM/ha 5.3
Grass energy as fed b MJ/tDM 10 400
Value of replacement feed c £/MJ 0.012
Beef price d £/kglw 1.75
Average live weight e kglw/hd 450
Grass feed f kgDM/kglw/day 0.02
Feed per day g = e*f kgDM/day/head 9
Live weight gain h kglw/day 1.0
Live weight gain i = d*h £/day 1.75
Live weight gain j = i/g £/kgDM fed 0.194
Live weight gain k = j/b*1000 £/MJ 0.019
Margin over feed costs l = k/c - 1 % 56%
Other finishing costs m % beef price 15%
Adjusted grass energy value n = k*(1 - m) £/MJ 0.016
Value added (before hay making costs) o = a*b*n £/ha 876
Saved hay/silage costs (direct costs) P £/ha 93
Net margin lost q=o-p £/ha 783

Feed and live weight gain estimates based on EBLEX (2011b) for beef fatstock and financial estimates based on Nix, 2011.

J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140 © 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
134 Morris and Brewin

in expenditures on contractor services due to loss of hay/ about 1.5 LU/ha across the whole flooded area generates
silage constitute a loss of income to contractors. One farmer about £3.15/ha per grazing day lost: about £47/ha and
contractor reported a £30 000 loss of income while leasing/ £95/ha for 2 and 4 weeks loss of grazing, respectively. In
depreciation charges on equipment and staff wages remain some extreme cases, some cattle may have been yarded or
to be paid. This probably accounts for a loss of £20 000 after located elsewhere for up to 6 weeks.
allowance for reduced fuel, maintenance and repair bills.
Contractor charges typically range between about £65/ha Other costs (Omisc)
for baling only through to £150/ha for cutting and carting
clamp silage. Assuming 85% and 15%, respectively, and that Overall, farmers reported that, as far as they could tell at this
33% of costs are operating costs that can be avoided if work stage, there was limited damage to field infrastructure, such
is not carried out, this equates to a loss in contractor services as drains, ditches, culverts, fences and gateways, although
of about £52/ha per ha conserved. Assuming half the area is this is difficult to assess until flood waters have fully receded.
cut results in a loss in net income of £26/ha of grass One farmer estimated infrastructural damage at £68/ha, but
destroyed by flooding: about £17 000 over the 680 ha seri- this was an exception. Two farmers purchased new machin-
ously affected. ery to clear spoiled grass. One farmer reported private
pumping costs of about £28/ha to evacuate excess flood
water on 60 ha. Where reported, average clean-up costs were
Extra production costs (Eproduction) about £15/ha for labour, tractor and trailer.
Lost revenues and extra costs have an effect on cash flows
Costs of reseeding pastures for farm businesses, in some cases requiring extra borrow-
ing. Although circumstances vary among farms, a 5% charge
The ‘improved’ grasslands of Currymoor are intolerant to was levied to represent the opportunity cost of reduced rev-
long-duration spring flooding. It is likely that they will enues to farm business.
require reseeding, at costs of about £63/ha for contractors The spring flood caused much distress among the farming
and £155/ha for seeds: £218/ha in total. More expensive community. No additional allowance is made for this here,
species-rich seed mixtures may be required for HLS areas. but the disruption, extra time commitments and general
burden placed on farmers probably added a further 20% to
The value of lost grazing days the estimates of losses made here. This is noted but not
included in the estimates.
The spring floods prevented the turnout of stock to grass, in
some cases by up to 4 weeks, during which time they were
Flood damage in areas subject to flooding of
housed and yarded. Subsequently, many cattle were put to
less than 2 weeks duration
grass on land intended for winter feed conservation. The
costs of losing a grazing day is estimated to be about £1.5/ Short-duration flooding occurred in Currymoor on about
day/head animal of about 12–15 months old, equivalent to 148 ha of higher ground to the west and around the margins
about £2.17/day/livestock grazing unit (LU – a dairy cow of the lower, most seriously affected areas. Estimates of
equivalent) (Table 6). Assuming average stocking rates of reductions in grass energy yields due to flooding of between

Table 6 Estimated value of a grazing day by type of stock


Replacement dairy cows Suckler cows Finishing cattle
DM intake a kgDM/kglw 0.02 0.02 0.023
Live weight b kg/head 400 600 550
Required DM c=a*b kg DM/day 8.00 12.00 12.65
DM conserv costs d £/head/day 0.28 0.42 0.44
Straw e £/head/day 0.36 0.36 0.36
Labour and machinery f £/head/day 1.00 1.00 0.35
Total costs g=d+e+f £/head/day 1.64 1.78 1.15
LU Equivalent h LU/head 0.70 0.80 0.60
Total costs i = g/h £/LU/day 2.34 2.23 1.91
Cattle proportions j % of total head 46% 20% 34%
weighted estimate k=I*j £/type 1.08 0.45 0.65
Weighted average l = sum k £/LU/day 2.17

Note: assumes livestock housed/yarded, includes feeding and bedding, and extra hay making/silage costs, excludes other grass production costs, based on farmer
survey and Nix (2011).

© 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140
Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture 135

Table 7 Estimated loss of grass energy, grazing days and other costs on areas flooded for between 1 and 2 weeks in early May in
Currymoor Drainage District
Case A1 A2 B1 B2 C1 C2
Management regime HLS (Org) cut HLS (Org) grazed HLS cut HLS grazed non HLS cut non HLS grazed
Grass energy* MJ/ha 46 370 37 181 53 898 43 217 61 071 48 969
Grass energy lost† % MJ 29% 15% 29% 15% 29% 15%
Grass energy lost MJ/ha 13 447 5 577 15 630 6 483 17 711 7 345
Value of grass lost‡ £/ha 163 67 189 78 214 89
Savings hay/silage costs§ £/ha 55 0 64 0 72 0
Net cost £/ha 108 67 125 78 142 89
Total 50% cut: 50% graze 88 102 115
Extra production and other costs
Grazing days lost¶ £/14 days 0 45 0 45 0 45
Stock relocation £/ha 0 10 0 10 0 10
Clean up £/ha 12 12 12 12 12 12
Subtotal £/ha 12 67 12 67 12 67
Total £/ha 120 134 137 145 154 156
Total 50% cut: 50% graze £/ha 127 141 155
Weighted by area £/ha 140

Notes:
*From Table 4.

Based on Morris and Hess (1988) for seasonal floods.

Valued at £0.012/MJ.
§
Based on reduced tDM cut.

Loss of grazing days of stock turned out in spring and other costs based on farm survey.

1 and 2 weeks during the individual months of the year are before finishing them rather than buying feed, or possibly a
available from Morris and Hess (1988) for Somerset condi- mixture of the two approaches. It is noted that per hectare
tions. Estimates of the loss of grass energy due to a flood loss of output such as cattle sales (and hence loss of value-
occurring in the month of May are 15% and 29% of annual added) is higher than loss associated with the cost of replac-
grass energy yields for grazing and hay/silage, respectively. ing grass energy production inputs.
Most of the areas subject to short-duration flooding are For this reason, estimates of loss are presented according
farmed relatively intensively, often with temporary grass leys. to ‘loss scenarios’, whether farmers replace feed at cost,
Estimated flood damage costs, valuing loss of grass energy at reduce hay sales or reduce cattle sales. The central estimate of
replacement feed cost, is between £88/ha and £115/ha, with loss varies between about £850/ha and £1120/ha on areas
an area weighted average of £141/ha allowing for loss of subject to long-duration flooding, and between about
grazing and other costs (Table 7). This cost equates to £660/ha and £1380/ha across the range of low and high
around £23 000 for the 148 ha flooded, and about £25 000 if estimates.
additional allowance is made for generally high stocking of The range of low to high estimates in Table 8 reflects
grazing pastures in spring. It is assumed that these areas will possible variation around the central estimate, and repre-
fully recover in the following season. sents a sensitivity analysis of major assumptions on damage
costs. A range of ⫾ 25% of the central estimate is taken for
major cost items, such as grass energy costs and reductions
Summary of agricultural costs at the farm
in sale revenues, whether due to variation in physical ele-
scale (Cfarmflood)
ments (e.g. tDM/ha, LU/ha) or unit prices (e.g. £/MJ,
Table 8 summarises the main cost components for the spring £/kglw). Other cost items, such as reseeding and clean-up
2012 flood, where they apply for the range of land uses costs (£/ha), were assumed to range by ⫾ 10%.
referred to earlier. The central estimate is based on the area There was considerable uncertainty about the prospect of
weighted averages of costs referred to earlier. It is noted that grassland recovery during 2012, and the ‘knock-on’ effects
the cost items in Table 8 are not additive at the farm scale. on production costs and sales for 2013. Discussions with
Farmers may adopt a combination of responses, some of farmers in early summer suggested that a 25% reduction in
which can only be confirmed at the end of the current pro- 2013 production was likely due to reduced grass energy,
duction cycle. For example, a farmer may decide to replace especially if grass recovery or reseeding was delayed. Further-
all lost grass with purchased feed, or alternatively sell cattle more, reduced overwintering of young stock because of

J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140 © 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
136 Morris and Brewin

Table 8 Agricultural flood damage costs by type of damage and loss scenarios for 2012 spring floods in Currymoor Drainage District
Damage costs by flood duration
Flooding 2–4 weeks or more Flooding < 2 weeks
Types of flood damage Central £/ha Range* £/ha Central† £/ha
Damage to crops and grassland (D)
Loss of grass energy (D1) 506 383–638 102
Loss of sales (L)
Loss of hay sales/withy sales materials (L1) 450 338–564
Fat cattle sales (L2) 783 589–979
Contractor services (L3) 26 23–29
Extra costs (E)
Reseeding costs (E1) 218 168–273
Loss of grazing Days (E2) 95 86–105 45
Other costs (O)
Clean-up 15 13–17 7
Repairs to field infrastructure 20 18–22 5
Other 5 4–6 10
Financing 25 22–28 5
Management burden n/a n/a
Total other costs (O1) 65 59–72 27
Loss scenarios for 2012
Long-duration flooding
Grass energy loss D1 + L3 + E1 + E2 + O1 845 655–1043
Hay loss L1 + L3 + E1 + E2 + O1 789 610–968
Fat cattle loss L2 + L3 + E1 + E2 + O1 1122 860–1384
Short-duration flooding
Grass energy loss D1 + E2 + O1 174

Note:
*Range assumes: ⫾ 25% for grass energy, hay sales and fat cattle, and ⫾ 10% for other items.

Range for short-duration flooding +25%.

limited feed could reduce numbers for early turnout in 2013. affected by the 2012 spring floods in Currymoor, incurred
For these reasons, a +25% loading on losses for the high on an average 28% their individual areas, are significant by
estimate seems reasonable and possibly modest. As events any measure. Increased exposure to risk of this magnitude
transpired, extremely wet conditions in 2012 (the second would quickly render farming non-viable.
wettest summer period on record in the UK) and early onset Discussions with farmers suggested a likely mix of
of winter flooding have delayed grass recovery and reseed- responses to loss of grass energy across the area as follows:
ing, suggesting that carryover effects into 2013 will be con- about 50% (by area) would be replaced by purchased
siderable. Some of these cumulative effects, however, are not feed, 20% would take the form of a loss of hay sales, and
entirely attributable to the spring floods themselves, but to 30% would result in reduced cattle fattening and sales. On
the post-flood conditions of persistent waterlogging that this basis, the central estimate of losses on land subject
prevented recovery. It seems likely, however, that the ‘high’ to long-duration flooding is about £920/ha (Table 9).
range of cost estimates will apply to much of the worst Estimated average damage costs range between about
affected areas in Currymoor because the impacts of the £710/ha and £1130/ha, the latter equivalent to an assumed
spring flood have been exacerbated by subsequent wet carryover effect of a 25% fall in grass production and/or
summer conditions. sales into 2013. These estimates are similar in magnitude
Estimated farm scale damage costs are high relative to to average damage costs of £730/ha (in 2012 prices) on
average farm family incomes of about £500/ha and £200/ha lowland livestock farms and £1240/ha on dairy farms
for lowland dairy and livestock farms, respectively, in South- flooded in the summer 2007 floods in England (Posthumus
west England in 2010/2011. This includes average non- et al., 2009).
production single (farm) payments and agri-environment Aggregating farm scale damage costs across the affected
payments of £220/ha and £32/ha on dairy farms, respec- areas for long (649 ha at £920/ha) and short (148 ha at £174/
tively, and £219/ha and £60/ha, respectively, on livestock ha) duration flooding gives £595 000 (⫾ £140 000) and
farms (FBS, 2012). Thus, the per hectare losses on the farms £26 000 (⫾ £6000), respectively.

© 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140
Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture 137

Table 9 Estimated spring flood damage in Currymoor Drainage District according to farmer responses
Impacts characteristics Flooding 2–4 weeks or more Flooding < 2 weeks
Damage to crops and grassland (2012 only) Central Range Central*
Scenario and weighting by % of area
Grass energy loss 50% £/ha share 423 328–522
Hay loss 20% £/ha share 158 122–194
Fat cattle loss 30% £/ha share 337 258–415
Weighted loss 100% £/ha 917† 708–1130 174
Areas affected ha 649 649 148
Total for flooded areas £’000 595 459–734 26

Note:
*Range ⫾ 25% range.

Grass loss at 50% for 2013 increases costs to £1170/ha.

Table 10 Annual losses to agric environmental outcomes based on HLS areas and payments in Currymoor Drainage District
HK10 HK15 HK10 + HK19
Maintenance of wet Maintenance of Ditch As per HK10 plus
grassland for wintering habitat for aquatic winter inundation
HLS prescription waders and wildfowl flora and fauna grassland supplement Average or total
Area ha 167 327 18 512
Payment £/ha 255 130 340 178
Administration charge £/ha 51 26 68 36
Total £/ha (⫾ 25%) 306 156 408 214 (160–268)
Area total £ (⫾ 25%) 51 100 51 000 7 400 109 400 (82 000–137 000)

Loss of environmental stewardship value 2002). For this reason, a ⫾ 25% variation in the estimate is
assumed: a 25% increase in damage costs reflecting a carryo-
The spring flooding resulted in long-duration inundation by
ver effect into 2013, which seems likely. Species-rich reseed-
anoxic water of the Sites of Special Scientific Interest areas,
ing could in some places, however, provide an environmental
compromising the conditions required to sustain the envi-
enhancement. Estimated average of the environmental
ronmental features of value, namely ditch flora and fauna,
damage costs of the spring 2012 flood on the 512 ha under
habitats for breeding waders, and associated field features.
the HLS agreements are £214/ha (⫾ £54), £109 400 in total.
Field observations suggest serious damage to habitats and
It is noted that valuation based on the costs of securing
wildlife, including loss of voles, ground nesting birds, and
environmental outcomes provides a minimum order indica-
invertebrates, especially earthworms.
tion of economic costs of environmental damage. A more
From an economics perspective, the environmental loss
robust and complete estimate, which goes beyond the scope
due to flooding can be measured in terms of the annual
here, would involve ‘willingness to pay’ for site-specific
payments made to farmers under the AES agreements
wetland services (see Turner et al. 2008), or estimates of
(Rouquette et al., 2009; Natural England, 2009), which indi-
benefits ‘transferred’ from other surveyed sites (Morris and
cate the value of intended environmental outcomes for the
Camino, 2011). The permanent loss of wetland environmen-
areas affected (Table 10). The average annual costs of admin-
tal services in Currymoor due to repeat flood events would
istering the HLS agreements (excluding information tech-
require such an evaluation of benefits foregone. For the pur-
nology) was 15% of the total payments to farmers between
poses of assessing the impacts of a one-off flood, a cost-
2007/2008 and 2011/2012 (Natural England, 2012). A 20%
based approach is deemed adequate on the assumption that
charge is applied here to reflect the likely extra costs of
full recovery is achieved in a relatively short time period.
administering the HLS arrangements under the circum-
stances. There may also be some additional costs of restora-
tion with species-rich seeds, the cost of which is not yet
known (conventional grass topping and reseeding have been
Combined agricultural and
charged separately above).
agri-environment damage costs
The full extent of the damage is not yet known, and natural Combining central estimates of agricultural flood costs (at
communities will take some time to recover (Gowing et al., £621 000) and damage to agri-environment outcomes (at

J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140 © 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
138 Morris and Brewin

Table 11 Summary of the agricultural and agri-environment £370 000: about £1 million in total for agricultural costs in
related costs of the spring 2012 floods in Currymoor Drainage other Moors.1
District
Much of the long-duration flooding on other moors
Impacts Central Range occurred on areas managed under environmental steward-
Agricultural Impacts ship programmes similar to those at Currymoor, although
Long-duration flooding £’000 595 459–734 details are not known. Assuming 400 ha of long-duration
Short-duration flooding £’000 26 21–30
flooding at a similar damage cost to that at Currymoor, that
Agricultural subtotal £’000 621 480–764
is £214/ha, gives an extra agri-environment cost of about
Agri-environment impacts £’000 109 82–137
Total for Currymoor spring flood £’000 730 562–901 £86 000. On this basis, the total costs of the spring event
Average cost long-duration flooding £/ha 1085 833–1342 across the reported 5000 ha subject to spring flooding in
on 649 ha Somerset are likely to be approaching £2 million (⫾ £0.5
Average cost short-duration flooding £/ha 174 131–219 million).
on 148 ha
Average cost on total 797 ha flooded £/ha 916 705–1130
areas
Economic losses to the nation
Note: based on preceding tables, rounded for summary.
The UK Government uses three scenarios to test the eco-
nomic value of agricultural flood risk to the national
£109 400 based on scheme costs) gives an estimate for total economy and by implication the justification for public
damage costs of £730 000 (⫾ 170 000) for the Currymoor investments to alleviate it (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2005).
floods (Table 11). It is noted that carryover impacts into These scenarios involve (1) complete and permanent loss of
2013 would result in costs towards the higher estimate. agricultural land; (2) one-off, infrequent flood events; and
Combined damage cost are equivalent to about £1090/ha (3) permanent reductions in standards of flood risk man-
(⫾ £250) on the 649 ha worst affected areas, and about agement associated, for example, with increased flood
£920/ha (⫾ £210) over the total 797 ha flooded on frequency.
Currymoor. The spring 2012 event is classified under type (2) above.
The key assumptions and uncertainties throughout the Economic appraisal requires that the incremental effects of
analysis relate to (1) the counterfactual productivity and floods are identified and expressed in monetary terms, based
profitability of grassland systems (and associated prices of on costs to farmers, excluding taxes (such as value added tax)
agricultural commodities); (2) the extent of loss of annual and subsidies (such as commodity support). A change in the
grass energy production (assumed to be total here); (3) the European Common Agricultural Policy since 2005 has sim-
scope for farmer mitigation of flood impacts; and (iv) pos- plified the economic assessment. Farm subsidies are now
sible carryover effects into subsequent years. Variation in mainly incorporated in single payments received annually by
these assumptions, accommodated in the ranges shown, farmers, not linked to production. Payments received by
leads to proportionate variations in the estimates of damage Currymoor farmers are independent of flood impacts, and
costs. These sources of uncertainty are priority areas for are therefore excluded from both the financial assessment of
research to improve appraisal methods. costs to farmers as well as an economic assessment. Some
government support for the livestock industry remains, but
particularly in the light of strong international prices, these
Flooding on other parts of the Somerset are small and are not included here.
Levels and Moors Economic appraisal of flood impacts also requires adjust-
ment for the so-called additionality and substitution effects
The above estimates are indicative of the order of costs for
(HMT, 2011), recognising that some of the losses due to
similar types of flooding experienced on other parts of the
flooding in one area might be temporarily or permanently
Moors and Levels during spring/early summer 2012. As
offset by production of goods and services elsewhere. The
reported earlier, a further 4000 ha were flooded on other
economic losses from the temporary closure of a race course
Moors, much of this, probably 90% by area, for durations
or golf course due to flooding, for example, might be par-
of about 2 weeks for this particular flood event but without
tially substituted by relocation of recreational activities onto
the severe damage to grass swards observed in Currymoor.
other courses. In the agricultural case, this implies that eco-
Thus, flood damage costs are likely to be about £175/ha
nomic damage costs might be confined to losses in the costs
on 3600 ha, generating an additional total cost of about
£630 000. Assuming 10% (i.e. 400 ha) were flooded for 1
Continuous heavy rainfall during summer 2012 subjected many of these
between 2 and 4 weeks at a cost of about £920/ha, as areas to persistent flooding and waterlogging for many months, severely
observed on Northmoor for example, adds a further constraining farming throughout the season.

© 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd J Flood Risk Management 7 (2014) 128–140
Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture 139

of production (e.g. grass energy) rather than losses in the can result in very high financial costs to lowland livestock
gross value of sales (e.g. crops or cattle). systems due to loss of grass production and associated costs
In the case of floods on agricultural land however, there is of replacement feed or reduced output. The survey and esti-
limited scope to switch crops such as wheat or potatoes mation methods applied to this specific English case can
elsewhere in the same farming year. The same is probably provide a framework for assessment of flood impacts on
true for dairy production where farmers are committed to agricultural grasslands in other contexts.
target breeding, feeding and yield games, at least in the short The Somerset case shows that even in areas that are
term. There may be more scope for offsetting in the case of farmed relatively extensively under agri-environment
fatstock, possibly with farmers carrying more or heavier arrangements, ‘out of season’ flooding can cause substantial
stock, but generally, within a given production cycle, supply- losses for already vulnerable small enterprises. Flooding can
side responses will be constrained. Furthermore, the more also prevent the achievement of agri-environment objec-
widespread is the flooding (and associated waterlogging) tives: thus, both agricultural and environmental interests can
problem, the more difficult is offsetting. The farmers inter- be simultaneously compromised.
viewed here showed a range of responses, which for the most While monetary agricultural and agri-environmental
part tried to minimise damage costs by maintaining output damages are a fraction of those that would occur in an urban
levels and the value of sales, incurring additional costs in the setting, the costs of non-winter flooding, here exceeding
process. For these reasons, the estimates of financial impacts £900/ha on grassland farms, can be significant at the farm
to agriculture derived here are deemed indicative of eco- and catchment scales. Changes in the intensity and seasonal
nomic impacts of one-off infrequent flood events, such as distribution of flooding, due to changes in climate and/or
the spring 2012 floods. changes in catchment land use, will require a rethink about
There is concern, however, that the frequency of extreme the approach to the appraisal and management of flood risk
events generating non-winter flooding is likely to increase in rural areas This challenge has heightened resonance given
due to changes in land management in the catchment and current concerns about food security and rising food prices,
climatic conditions. Farmers recall that the last serious non- rural employment, and habitat protection. It is important to
winter flood in Currymoor occurred in August/September have a clear understanding of the impacts of flooding on
1968, 44 years ago. The prospect of a permanent increase on agricultural land, even where farmed extensively. Otherwise,
flood risk would switch the appraisal assessment to scenario many rural areas could become flood risk ‘Cinderellas’,
(3) above. Indeed, more frequent and widespread flooding neglected and potentially exploited.
and waterlogging may call for a review of Defra’s current
guidance that assumes that agricultural production perma-
nently lost in one place can be readily offset by relocation Acknowledgements
elsewhere. This requires a strategic assessment of flood
impacts on agriculture and food supply at the regional and Thanks to the Somerset Drainage Board Consortium for
national scales. sponsoring this enquiry, and to the farmers in Currymoor
With respect to environmental losses, valuation based on Drainage District and elsewhere for willingly participating in
the costs of securing environmental outcomes provides a the study during a difficult and challenging period.
minimum order indication of economic costs of environ-
mental damage. A more robust estimate, which goes beyond
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