Assignment on:

Agriculture and Weather

Relations and Climatic Normals
for Crop and Livestock
Production
BSc. (hons.) Agriculture 2nd year 4th Sem.
Course name: AGRO-METEOROLOGY
Course code: APA 207 Credit hours: 2(1+1)

Submitted by: Submitted to:

Shalini Shukla (Ag063/17) Dr. Pratik Sanodiya
Ved Prakash (Ag/064/17)
Agronomy
 AGRICULTURE AND WEATHER RELATIONS

Agriculture and weather are co-related with each other. Agriculture are totally depend on weather.

WHAT IS AGRICULTURE?

“Agriculture is a very broad term encompassing all aspects of crop production, livestock farming, fisheries, forestry
etc.”

WHAT IS WEATHER?
i) ‘A state or condition of the atmosphere at a given place and at a given instant of time’.
ii) ‘The daily or short term variations of different conditions of lower air in terms of temperature,
Pressure, wind, rainfall, etc.’
iii) State of atmosphere at a particular time as defined by the various meteorological elements.

 Experiences indicated above, impact of climate change on agriculture will be one of the major deciding
factors influencing the future food security of mankind on the earth. Agriculture is not only sensitive to
climate change but also one of the major drivers for climate change. Understanding the weather changes over
a period of time and adjusting the management practices towards achieving better harvest are challenges to
the growth of agricultural sector as a whole.
 The climate sensitivity of agriculture is uncertain, as there is regional variation in rainfall, temperature, crops
and cropping systems, soils and management practices.
 The tropics are more dependent on agriculture as 75% of world population lives in tropics and two thirds of
these people’s main occupation is agriculture. With low levels of technology, wide range of pests, diseases
and weeds, land degradation, unequal land distribution and rapid population growth, any impact on tropical
agriculture will affect their livelihood. Rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, soybean and barley are the six major
crops in the world grown in 40% cropped area, and contribute to 55% of non-meat calories and over 70% of
animal feed (FAO, 2006). Consequently, any effect on these crops would adversely affect the food security.
MAIN PROJECTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AT GLOBAL LEVEL:-
The projections of future climate patterns are largely based on computer-based models of the climate system that
incorporate the important factors and processes of the atmosphere and the oceans, including the expected growth in
greenhouse gases from socio-economic scenarios for the coming decades.
 The global average surface warming (surface air temperature change) will increase by 1.1 - 6.4 °C.
 The sea level will rise between 18 and 59 cm.
 The oceans will become more acidic.
 It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more
frequent.
 It is very likely that there will be more precipitation at higher latitudes and it is likely that there will be less
precipitation in most subtropical land areas.

LIKELY EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KEY SECTORS AT GLOBAL LEVEL:

The effects on key sectors, in the absence of countermeasures, are summarized as follows.
 Water: Drought affected areas are likely to be more widely distributed. Heavier precipitation events are very
likely to increase in frequency leading to higher flood risks. By mid-century, water availability is likely to
decrease in mid-latitudes, in the dry tropics and in other regions supplied by melted water from mountain
ranges. More than one sixth of the world‘s population is currently dependent on melt water from mountain
ranges.
 Food: While some mid latitude and high latitude areas will initially benefit from higher agricultural
production, for many others at lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, the increases
in temperature and the frequency of droughts and floods are likely to affect crop production negatively, which
could increase the number of people at risk from hunger and increased levels of displacement and migration.
  Industry, settlement and society: The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally
those located in coastal areas and river flood plains, and those whose economies are closely linked with
climate sensitive resources.
 Health: The projected changes in climate are likely to alter the health status ofmillions of people, including
increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.

OBSERVED CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND WEATHER EVENTS IN INDIA

 Surface Temperature:- At the national level, increase of 0.4° C has been observed in surface air
Temperatures over the past century. A warming trend has been observed along the west coast, in central India, the
interior peninsula, and northeastern India.
 Rise in Sea Level: Using the records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean for more than 40 years,
Scientists have estimated that sea level rise was between 1.06-1.75 mm per year. These rates are consistent
with 1-2 mm per year global sea level rise estimates of the IPCC.
 Annual mean surface temperature: The simulation studies by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
(IITM), Pune, estimated that annual mean surface temperature is expected to raise by the end of century,
ranges from 3 to 5° C with warming more pronounced in the northern parts of India.
 Impacts on Water Resources: Changes in key climate variables, namely temperature, precipitation and
humidity, may have significant long-term implications for the quality and quantity of water.
 Impacts on Agriculture and Food Production: Food production in India is sensitive to climate changes
such as variability in monsoon rainfall and temperature changes within a season. Studies by Indian
Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) and others indicate greater expected loss in the Rabi crop. Every 1°C
rise in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 Million 11 Tonnes.
 Impact on Pests: Some of the most dramatic effects of climate change on pests and diseases are likely to be
seen among arthropod insects like mosquitoes, midges, ticks, fleas and sand flies, and the viruses they carry.

 Microclimate:-
 Microclimate deals with the climatic features peculiar to small areas and with the physical processes that take
place in the layer of air very near to the ground. Soil-ground conditions, character of vegetation cover, aspect
of slopes, and state of the soil surface, relief forms – all these may create special local conditions of
temperature, humidity, wind and radiation in the layer of air near the ground which differ sharply from
general climatic conditions. One of the most important tasks of agricultural meteorology is to study the
properties of air near the ground and surface layer of soil, which falls under the micro climate.
 Climate classification was tried by many scientists from beginning of 19th century using many parameters.
Thornthwaite during 1931 and 1948 classified the climate using precipitation and evaporation /Potential
evaporation and was subsequently modified by Mathur (1955) for the Moisture Index (Im) and is give below
Im = 100 [(P-PE)/PE]
Where P = Precipitation, PE = Potential Evapo-transpiration
Using the moisture Index (Im) the following classification was made.

Climate classification Im Quantity

Per humid 100 and above
Humid 20 to 100
Moist sub humid 0 to 20
Dry sub humid -33.3 to 0
Semi-arid -66.7 to -33.3
Arid -100 to -66.7
The ICAR under All India Coordinated Research Project on Dryland Agriculture adopted
Classification based Moisture Deficit Index (MDI)
MDI =P – PET/P – PET*100
Where P is annual precipitation (cm) and PET is Potential Evapotranspiration. Based on MDI
the climate is divided into three regions as below.

Type of climate MDI

Sub humid 0.0 to 33.3
Semiarid -33.3 to -66.6
Arid > -66.6
 CLIMATIC NORMALS

Climate is an important factor in agriculture, commerce, industry, and transportation.

It affects many activities such as farming, fuel consumption, structural design, building site location, trade,
analysis of market fluctuations, and the utilization of other natural resources.
The national oceanic and atmospheric administration’s (NOAA’s) national climatic data center (NCDC) has
the responsibility to fulfill the mandate of congress…to establish and record the climatic conditions of United
States.
Climatic normal are three decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and
precipitation.
The normal climate helps in describing the climate and is used as a base to which current conditions can be
compared.
This product is produced once every 10 years.
The 1981-2010 U.S. Climatic normal dataset is the latest release of NCEI’s climate normal.
This dataset contains daily and monthly normal of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling
degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing degree days calculated from observations at approximately 9800
stations operated by NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Climatological normals are used as an average or baseline to evaluate climate events and provide context for
year to year variability.
Weather can be calculated for a variety of weather variables including temperature and precipitation and rely
on data from weather stations.
Variability from the 30 year averages is typical and climate variability looks at the magnitude of extremes.
What Are Climate Normals In Layman Language?

You are looking forward to taking a much deserved vacation in four months, and you want to visit a U.S. city you’ve
never been to before.so, how do you decide where to go? Perhaps you’ll consider locations where you can expect your
ideal temperatures. But at four months out, your trusted weather forecast won’t be much help in finding locations that
meet your temperature criteria. The scientists from NOAA have calculated the normal temperatures you can expect to
see each month at a magnitude of locations across the contiguous United States. We call them climatic normals, and
it is being calculated every decade.
What are climatic normals?
 Scientist traditionally define a climate normal as an average over a recent 30 year period.
 Why 30 years?
 Close to a century ago, the international meteorological organization- now known as world metrological
organization- instructed member nations to calculate climate normals using 30 year periods, beginning with
1901-1930.
 Also, a general rule in statistics say that you need at least 30 numbers to get a reliable estimate of their mean
or average.
Doesn’t climate change affect 30 year normals?
 If the climate conditions are shifting upward or downward rather than fluctuating above and below the same
constant level, it may make sense to calculate an estimate of the current state of climate in different way.
 Regarding such concerns, now the supplemental monthly temperature normals are being released that define
normal in alternative ways.

AGROCLIMATIC NORMAL:
Climatic normals means the degree of temperature, amount of rainfall, humidity, etc., which distinguish
optimum conditions from abnormal, both because of excess and insufficiency.
RICE:-
Temperature and solar radiation influence rice yield by directly affecting the physiological processes
involved in grain production and indirectly through the incidence of insects and diseases.
Temperature:
 o The difference in yield is mainly due to solar radiation received during its growing season.
o It requires high temperature, ample water supply and high atmospheric humidity during growth
period.
o A mean temperature of 22C is required for entire growing period.
o If high temperature drops below 15C during the growth phase, the rice yield is highly reduced by
formation of sterile spikelets.
o The period during which low temperature is most critical, is about 10-14 days before heading.
Solar Radiation:
o Low sunshine hours during vegetative phase have slight ill effect on grain production, whereas same
situation during reproductive phase reduce the number and development of spikelets and thereby
the yield.
o A combination of low temperature and high solar radiation during reproductive stage is good for
getting higher yield.
Rainfall:
o Rice requires high moisture and hence called as hydrophytes.
o Rice requires a sub merged condition from sprouting to milky stage.
o The water requirement is 125cm. an average monthly rainfall of 200mm is required to grow lowland
rice and 100mm to grow upland rice successfully.
WHEAT:-
Temperature:
o Optimum temperature for swing is 15-20C.
o At maturity, it requires 25C.
o At harvest time wheat requires high temperature of 30-35C and bright sunny period of 9-10 hours.
Moisture:
o One hectare of wheat consumes about 2500-3000 tons of water.
o Water deficiency at heading stage results in shriveled grains and low yield.
MAIZE:-
This crop is best suited for intermediate climates of the earth to which the bulk of its acreage is confined.
Temperature:
o Maize requires a mean temperature of 24C and a night temperature of above 15C.
o High night temperature results into low yield.
Moisture:
o Maize is adapted to humid climate and has high water requirements.
o It needs 75cm of rainfall during its growth period.
o The average consumptive use of water by maize is estimated to range between 41 and 64cm.
o From germination up to early stage, maize requires less water.
o At flowering requires more water and the requirement reduces towards maturity.

CLIMATIC NORMALS ON LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION:

 Despite uncertainties in climate variability, the IPCC fifth assessment report identified the likely range of
increase of global surface temperature by 2100, which is between 0.3 C and 4.8C.
 The potential impacts on livestock include: changes in production, quality of feed and forage, animal growth
and milk production, diseases, reproduction.
 These impacts are primarily due to an increase in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration,
precipitation variation.
 Temperature affects most of the critical factors for livestock production, such as water availability,animal
production, reproduction and health.
 Forage quantity and quality are affected by a combination of increases in temp., CO2 and precipitation
variation.
 Livestock diseases are mostly affected by increase in temperature and precipitation variation.
 1) QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF FEEDS:-
 These are affected mainly due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level and temperature.
 Increase in CO2 concentration will result in herbage growth changes, will greater effects on C3
species and less on grain yields.
 C4 species are found in warm environments, and have higher water use efficiency than C3 plants.
Temperature increase to 30C -35C could increase herbage growth, with larger effects on C4
species.
 Changes in temperature and CO2 levels will affect the composition of pastures.
 Quality of feed crops and forage may be affected by increased temperatures and dry conditions due
to variation in water soluble carbohydrates and nitrogen.
2) WATER:-
 The livestock sector accounts for about 8% of global human water use and an increase in temperature
may increase animal water consumption by a factor of two o here.
 Salination adds to chemical and biological contaminants and high concentrations of heavy metals
influence livestock production.
 Water Salination could affect animal metabolism, fertility and digestion.
3) LIVESTOCK DISEASES:-
 Increase in temperature, increases the potential for morbidity and death.
 Effect on Microbial communities, spreading of vector- borne diseases, food borne disease, host
resistance, feed and water scarcity are some of indirect effects of climate change.
4) HEAT STRESS:-
 During the day, livestock keeps a body temperature within a range of -5C to +5C.
 Animals have developed a phenotypic response to a single source of stress called acclimation.
 It results into reduced feed intake, and altered physiological functions such as reproductive and
productive efficiency and a change in respiration rate.
5) ANIMAL PRODUCTION:-
 One of the major decrease in dairy and beef industry is heat stress.
 It also impacts on milk composition and amount.
 In case of meat production, beef cattles are vulnerable to warming.
 Body size, carcass weight, and fat thickness in ruminants are reduced because of global warming.
 The poultry industry may also be compromised by low production at temperatures higher than 30 C.
 Egg quality, such as egg weight and shell weight and thickness may also be negatively affected
under hotter conditions.
6) HEALTH:-
 Prolonged high temperature may affect metabolic rate, endocrine status, oxidative status, glucose,
protein and lipid metabolism, liver functionability, non- esterified fatty acids (NEFA), saliva
production and salivary bicarbonate content.
 High energy deficits affects cow fitness and longevity.
7) REPRODUCTION:-
 Reproduction efficiency of both sexes are affected by heat stress.
 In cows and pigs, it affects oocyte growth and quality, embryo development is impaired.
 Heat stress leads to low sperm count and quality in bulls, pigs and poultry.
8) MORTALITY:-
 Warm and humid conditions can affect livestock mortality.
 Increase in temperature between 1 and 5C might induce high mortality in grazing cattles.
Thus climatic normals have a great impact on crop and livestock production. Even slight variation can cause great
damage to their production.
 REFERENCES

 www.Weather.gov>grr
 www.weather.gov>grand rapids, MI>about climate normals
 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov>data-access
 https://en.m.wikipedia.org
 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land -based-station-data
 https://www.feedipedia.org>content
 https://en.m.wikibooks.org>wiki>agrometrology
 https://www.sciencedirect.com
 csis.org
 www.thebetterindia.com
 https://wattsupwiththat.com