CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Rainfall variability has become a topical issue in recent times largely because of its impacts on

natural and human systems. Labiru (2016) noted that most frequently cited activities that are

likely to be affected by rainfall variability include agriculture, forestry, hydrology and fisheries.

Agriculture which is the mainstay of local socio- economic and National Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) in some African countries is the most vulnerable to rainfall variability. This is

because in spite of recent technological advances, weather and climate are still the most

important determinants in agricultural production. The long term crisis between farmers and

herdsmen in Nigeria is primarily attributed to climate change and rainfall variability (Labiru,

2016)

Rainfall is the leading climatic factor that influences crop growth and productivity. Rainfall

variability is increasingly becoming a source of concern, particularly in the rain fed agricultural

regions of the world, this is due to its pattern, distribution and seasonality. In a typical rain fed

agricultural region, scarcity of water and uncertainties in both the amount received and spread,

remains a major threat to agricultural development which is usually associated with significantly

poor yield and high variability in crop production on yearly basis (Agidi, 2014).Therefore a change

or unpredictable pattern of rainfall onset, cessation and length of growing season in a location

can have a negative effect on the farmers in an area that depend on rainfall for their farming

activities (Agidi, 2017). In Nigeria, rainfall variability is known to affect the rain-fed agriculture

in which many of the population depend. In this region crop lose their viability and the farmers

lose their source of income as well (Obasakin, 2011). Reason for crop yield decline may be due

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to inter- annual variation. The annual variation of rainfall particular in northern Nigeria is large,

which often results in climate hazards, especially floods and droughts with devastating effects on

food production and associated with calamities and sufferings (Osman, 2015). Despite the great

potential of Nigeria in crop production, the frequent occurrence of drought occasioned by erratic

rainfall distribution and/or cessation of rain during the growing season is the greatest hindrance

to increase production and this is more serious in the northern part of the country where most of

the tubers are produced for example Benue State.

Nonetheless, to relate rainfall variability with actual crop yield model-base simulations are not

sufficient. Modelling which offers a mechanism to integrate many scales of data developed in/for

agricultural research. Surprisingly, little systematic research has focused on the distribution

patterns of the impacts of rainfall variability in terms of mapping the spatio-temporal impact

using the modern equipment. There is no doubt that farmers and Agricultural Agencies

increasingly need detailed maps of Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to plan crops

planting schemes and to monitor yield rates (Labiru, 2016). This study of annual rainfall

variability impact begins by mapping out direct physical consequences of rainfall variables on

crop yields. Generally, the scientific evidence on rainfall variability with its significant impacts

on crop yield is now stronger than ever (Hare, 2010). One undisputable causes of 'famine' in

Guinean Savanna Nigeria is the failure of crops resulting from insufficient or untimely rainfall.

But is it true that “rainfall is the husband of crop yield” according to Nigerian slogan- that is

rainfall supply all needed resources for crop yield. Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change

(2012) has studied the inter-annual pattern in climate and particularly the magnitude of rainfall

variability impact on human activities, including to crop production. For example, Adamgbe and

Ujoh (2012) observed that over the period 1997 to 1999 the north arid zone of Nigeria

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experienced a decline in annual rainfall which led to decline in crops based farming systems. The

zonal pattern of rainfall variability, especially, in the North Central area of Nigeria is noted not

only the differences in the types of crops cultivated but also the rate of yield of such crops (Idris,

et al., 2012).

Studies on annual rainfall variability impact on crop yield used model-base simulations in their

analysis. Despite there is sufficient rain, its irregularity can affect yields adversely if rains fail to

arrive during the actual growing stage of crops (Hassan, 2013). According to Odewumi (2013), it

is clear that, of the climatic factors which influence the pattern and productivity of rain fed

agriculture in Nigeria, the availability of water to crops is by far the most important. Generally,

based on rainfall distribution, certain crops are found at a particular geographical location. (Odjugo,

2013) pointed out that rainfall distribution explains why the drought resistance crops such as millet

and sorghum are grown largely in the Northern part while crops that are more moisture demanding

such as rice, maize and cassava are grown in the North Central areas of Nigeria extensively. To

date, much of the effort to analyze rainfall pattern in Nigeria with respect to agriculture has

generally focused on the exploitation of the seasonal rainfall (Yamusa, et al., 2013).The season

distribution of rainfall and its subsequent effects on crop productivity has however received less

attention although its effects may be as important as the total seasonal rainfall. For a better

understanding of the issue of rainfall availability in tropical rain fed agriculture, much more

attention needs to be given to the quantification of season rainfall pattern (Yamusa, et al., 2013).

This will allow a prior assessment of the expected severity and duration of dry spells during the

season and provide a sounder basis for developing improved water management technique in

tropical agriculture. Most farmers in developing countries solely depend on traditional methods

of farming system which places them at a disadvantage with many alterations in nature. The

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2012) observed that, the increasing

temperature, erratic rains, drought, floods, desertification and other weather extremes have

severe effect on agriculture especially in the developing world. This explains why most

developing countries lack the capacity to predict and swiftly act in terms of extreme weather

hazards.

Agriculture is the major occupation and source of livelihood to a major proportion of Nigeria’s

populations and it is known to be the backbone sustaining the economy of Nigeria. The

significance of the agricultural sector to Nigeria’s economy cannot be overemphasized as it is

catalyst for food provision, contribution to the gross domestic product, provision of employment,

provision of raw materials for agro-allied industries, and generation of foreign earnings. Crop

production is an integral part of agricultural dealing with the cultivation, protection, harvesting

and storage of cultivated plants for man’s use. It is the sum total of all the activities involved in

producing, preparing and processing of agricultural crops (Akanbi et. al., 2014).

Yams are agronomical, annual rain fed crops which grow for 6-12 months depending on the

cultivar, ecology and soil properties in the production area. They serve as staple food in many

tropical and even sub-tropical countries. World yam production is about 30 million tons annually

with 90% grown in the yam production belts of West Africa (FAO, 2015).

Yams (Dioscoreaspp) are annual or perennial tuber-bearing and climbing plants with over 600

species out of which six are economically important in terms of food and medicine IITA, (2012).

Yam belongs to the genus “Dioscorea” and family “Dioscoreaceae”. It is an important tuber

crop of the tropics. Yam is a tropical crop with many species, which originated in South East

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Asia and was brought to West Africa in the 16th century. It is one of the principal tuber crops in

the Nigeria economy, in terms of land under cultivation and in the volume and value of

production (Bamire andAmujoyegbe, 2015). Yams are grown on 5 million hectares in about 47

countries of the world with Nigeria as the leading world producer, FAO (2015) and IITA,

(2019). In 2005, 48.7 million tons of yams were produced in the world and 97% of these were

in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for70% of world production grown on 2.83 million

hectares of land IITA, (2012). Nigeria’s yam production was 44 million tonnes in 2015 and by

2016 this increased by8% to 56.7 million tonnes

Yam is a good source of complex carbohydrate, it regulates steady rise in blood sugar levels. For

the same reason, yam recommended as low glycemic index healthy food. The tuber is an

excellent source of B-complex group of vitamins. It provides adequate daily requirements of

pyridoxine (vitamin B6), thiamin (vitamin B1), riboflavin, foliates, pantothenic acid and niacin.

These vitamins mediate various metabolic functions in the body. Fresh root also contains good

amounts of anti-oxidant vitamin; Vitamin-C. Provides about 29% of recommended levels per

100 g. Vitamin C play some important roles as anti-aging, immune functional booster, wound

healing, and bone growth. Yam contains small amounts of vitamin-A, and beta-carotene levels.

Carotenes convert into vitamin A inside the body. Both these compounds are strong

antioxidants. Vitamin A has many functions like maintaining healthy mucus membranes and

skin, night vision, growth and protection from lung and oral cavity cancers. Further, the tuber

indeed is one of the good sources of minerals such as copper, calcium, potassium, iron,

manganese, and phosphorus. 100 g provides about 816 mg of Potassium. Potassium is an

important component of cell and body fluids which helps controlling heart rate and blood

pressure by countering hypertensive effects of sodium. Copper is required in the production of

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red blood cells. Manganese is used by the body as a co-factor for the antioxidant enzyme,

superoxide dismutase. Iron is required for red blood cell formation

Food importance of yam

In the study area, yams are the staple food for households. No days go by without the yam being

consumed in the plundered form, the most common form of consumption. During certain periods

of the year, particularly during the periods of abundance just after the harvest, the yam is

onsumed two to three times a day (Akanbi et al., 2014). Accompanied by various sauces, the

yam largely meets the nutritional needs, in particular in fibber, complex carbohydrates and

mineral salts of households. Thus, the availability of yam stocks is for most producers (81%) a

guarantee of food security. According to these producers, the yam harvest marks the end of the

lean season and the elimination of hunger. With 56% of the production devoted to household

consumption against 34% for the market, self-consumption remains the major objective of

production in the study area. This self-consumption is however increasingly threatened by the

low productivity observable nowadays in the production areas and which are attributable to the

continuous reduction in soil fertility in these regions. As a result, yam stocks are no longer

sufficient for most households. Only the large producers, around 10% of producers, manage to

have sufficient stock to cover their needs until the new harvest. For most small producers, yam

stocks run out before the new season, forcing them to depend on donations from relatives or

allies to meet the rest of their needs (Akanbi et. al., 2014).

Economic importance of yam

In the past, yam had only been a food and cultural crop, over time it has acquired a market

6
Importance which nowadays also makes it a popular cash crop. Thus, the marketing of a

significant production’s part has become for most producers a specific objective clearly defined

in the overall production strategy at the start of the season. With about 34% of the annual

production intended for sale, the yam contributes for a non- negligible part to the total farm

income of households in the study area. Compared to other tubers, roots or cereal crops, yam is

consumed in all regions of Niger due to the variety of quick meals offered by its preparation.

Thus, the demand for this foodstuff consumed in fried, boiled and above all plundered form is

relatively very strong throughout the year, making yam production profitable (Akanbi et. al.,

2014).

1.2. Statement of the Problem

Over the years, despite the technological advances to crop production in Niger State such as the

introduction of high yield crops, the application of fertilizer and provision of extension services,

the yield of crops still varies in different parts of Niger State. This results in hunger and

starvation of people who solely depend on this crop for their socio- economic activities.

The length of rainy season causes a lot of problems to the farmers in their effort to put an

increase in the production of yam. Igwebuike, et al., (2014), noted that climate prediction and

analysis of past and present trends indicate that small- scale farming households in tropical and

sub- tropical areas are exposed to increased climate risk and become more and more vulnerable

to these risks resulting in the decline of crop yields. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, (IPCC, 2012), noted that yield from rain-fed agriculture in different African countries

could be reduced by up to 50 % by the year 2020. Agidi (2017) noted that the inter-annual

rainfall variability and crop yields in Nasarawa State, have resulted in the decline of crop yields

due to variability of rainfall pattern. Akpenpuun (2013) observed that the relationship between

7
tuber crop yield variations in Kwara State to climate variation. Emmanuel and Fanan (2013),

noted that rainfall is highly variable in Makurdi and maize yield. He revealed that changes in

onset and cessation are the main reason for maize yield decline in Makurdi. Nyagba (2013)

showed a comparative analysis of the distribution of rainy days in different ecological zones in

Benue State.

Apart from the hard working nature of Nigerian yam famers, rainfall play an important role in

determining the production of yam crops in the semi-arid region of Africa and particularly in

Nigeria. Rainfall distribution of the past years has greatly affected agricultural crops especially

yam production in Nigeria. Therefore this study seeks to assess the impact of rainfall variability

on yam production in Bosso LGA, Niger State.

1.3 Aim and Objectives

The aim of this research work is to assess rainfall variability and its impact on yam production.

Within this given aim, the specific objectives are to;

i. Assess the rainfall variability in Bosso LGA for the period under study (2012-2021)

ii. Evaluate the trend in yam production for the period under study (2012-2021).

iii. Examine the relationship between rainfall distribution pattern on yam production

1.4 Research Questions

i. How is the variability of rainfall in Bosso LGA from 2012 - 2021?

ii. What is the trend of yam production in Bosso LGA from 2012 – 2021?

iii. What is the relationship between rainfall and yam production?

1.5 Scope of the Study

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The scope of the study will be confined within Bosso LGA with the limits of the available data

and information at the Nigeria Meteorological Agency in Minna (NIMET) and also from the

Agricultural Development Program (ADP) Minna, Niger state. Data will be collected on yam

production for this study from a period of ten (10) years. This will be between the periods of

2011 - 2020.

1.6 Justification of the Study

Increase in the production of yam in Bosso LGA in the near future, will depend to a large extent,

on the ability to understand the atmospheric weather event that results, so as to be able to fore

warn farmers of the months that are more favourable to cultivate yam. Since this is related to

rainfall especially in its distribution in space and time, an understanding of the pattern over the

past years will offer an opportunity of knowing what is to be expected and how to go about

avoiding it.

Nothing could make this understanding possible rather than a detailed study and analysis of this

important weather element (rainfall). For this study Bosso LGA was chosen by virtue of its

importance as one of the location where yam production is very high. That is Niger state (Bosso)

is among the high producers of yam in Nigeria.

1.7 The Study Area Map

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Figure 1.1 Niger State Showing Bosso LGA
Source: Geography Department FUT Minna (2021).

1.7.1 Location of the Study Area

Bosso is a Local Government Area in Niger State. Been the study area is located between

latitude 9010’0’N, longitude 60 6’ 0’E and latitude 9050’0’N, longitude 60 10’0’E. It headquarters

is Maikunkele. It has an area of 1692km2 and a population of 203,134 as projected in 2019 using

National Population Commission (NPC) figure of 2006 with 2.5% annual growth rate. The

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postal code of the area is 920. Niger State is one of the second generation states of the Federal

Republic of Nigeria. The population of Bosso LGA of Niger State mostly comprise of the key

tribes Gwari, Nupe and Hausa. The State has 25 local government areas with Minna as its

capital. Bosso lies on a valley bed (lowland) bordered to the east by Paida hill stretching

eastwards towards Maitumbi and essentially savannah and quite conducive for farming. It

borders Wushishi and Gbako to the west, Shiroro to the North, Chanchaga to the East and Bida

to the south (Akpenpuun, 2013)

1.7.2 Climate of the Study Area

Bosso is located within the tropical hinterland and the tropical continental climate of Nigeria

(North and the sub-equatorial south climate regions). It therefore falls under the tropical

continental wet and dry climate based on the Koppen classification scheme. Bosso is invaded by

two distinct air masses, one from the north; dry and continental in origin, the Sahara air mass.

The other is from the Atlantic in the south; moist cool and equatorial Maritime in nature. The

weather depends to a large extent on the air mass which covers its area and depth. The weather

in Bosso is strongly influenced by its location within the Niger-Benue trough. It is from the high

temperatures and relative humidity of trough that the state gets its heating effect from while the

increased elevation toward the north gives it a slight cooling effect. In response to these air

masses, Bosso is characterised with two distinct weathers, namely the wet season which begins

around March and runs through October and as well as a dry season which begins from October

to March. There is a brief harmattan period of extreme dryness and dusty strong winds. This is

normally associated with the north eastern trade winds that blow over the Sahara carrying fine

dust particles. These dust particles when deposited make the land even more fertile. Rainfall in

Bosso starts in April and ends in October with the length of rainy season varying between 160 to

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200days. The mean annual rainfall ranges from between 1100mm to 1500mm in July and august

each year. Rainfall in Bosso occurs along disturbance lines in places overlaid by the warm and

humid maritime air mass originating over the Atlantic Ocean in the south. (Bosso chronicle,

1997)

Bosso has a mean annual rainfall of 1334mm (52inches) with September recording the highest

rain of 330mm (11.7inches). The mean monthly temperature is highest in March at about 30.50C

(850F) and lowest in August at 22.30C (720ºF).

1.7.3 Topography of the Study Area

The land area of Bosso is characterised by an undulating topography. The geological structure

depicts steep sloping rock outcrop on the north and eastern flank. There are also large but

isolated rock outcrops in this landscape and also some areas of scattered rocks. In other words,

land beyond the presently developed strip is suitable for development and the sediments have

undergone varying degrees of metamorphism. These sedimentary materials are underlain at

variable depth by basement complex rocks. Bosso geology can, therefore, be broad Meta-

sediments occurring in more than 7.5 per cent of the state, associated with the Niger trough.

Basement complex rocks occurring higher ground further away, particular in Bosso and the

meta-sediments are dominantly sand stone, but also contain shale, siltstone, limestone and

quartzite. Bosso lies on a valley bed (lowland) bordered to the east by Paida hill stretching

eastwards towards Maitumbi and essentially savannah and quite conducive for farming. It

borders Wushishi and Gbako to the west, Shiroro to the North, Chanchaga to the East and Bida

to the south (Akpenpuun and Chukwu, 2013).

Careful planning to keep engineering cost of culverts, bridges, embankments and drainage

works low. To the north over the hills, there are some developable lands but intersperse with
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poor land. To the south the land offers reasonable development possibilities but is curtailed by

the Chanchaga River. There is a major drainage channel fed by many minor drainage flows from

the centre of the town south-west wards. At some other locations, these drainage channels flood

large areas of low lying terrain especially after heavy downpour (Chukwu2005).

1.7.4 Soil of the Study Area

The two main types of soils in Bosso are the sedimentary belt in the southern and south western

extremities of the area and the pre-Cambrian basement complex rock which accounts for more

than 80 percent of the area. The sedimentary formation, being part of the Nupe land sandstones

with inclusions of grits, siltstone and clay lense and the basement complex consists of a wide

variety of rock types which can be classified into three broad groups. (i)The igneous rocks made

up mostly of biotite granite, rhyolite, synenite, gabbrodiorite. The granites account for most of

the rock domes and the massive hills in the north-eastern and north western parts of Bosso. (ii)

The migmatites and the gneiss complex which are metamorphic rocks consisting mostly of

migmatite, granite, gneiss and porphyritic gneiss occur on the plains. (iii) Schists, including

biotite/muscovite schists muscovite and tale schists with quartzite intrusive account for most of

the rugged landscape in the eastern and southern parts of Bosso. The migmatite, granite gneiss

and biotite granite underline the site of the area. These are rocks medium to high strength which

are not expected to present serious engineering problems and rocks of Bosso are generally

quartz-rich, acidic types which account for the generally sandy nature of the soil, especially on

the Robo and Rubochi plains. The plains have the most fertile soils and the best agricultural

lands of all the plains of Bosso while the high sand content of most soils within Bosso accounts

for the relatively high erosion status. There is however, one major advantage about the type of

rocks and soil found in Bosso because of the availability of construction materials in the form of

13
building stones, quartz and pistolitic gravel, building sands and earth for use as foundation

materials (Nwosu and Okoli 2010)

1.7.5 Vegetation of the Study Area

The vegetation of Bosso and its environs consists of open Savanna. The Fadamas of the larger

rivers support open Savanna with occasional streams covered with dense riparian wood lands

orgallery forest. It is pertinent to note the grasses are between 0.8 to 3.5 meters high. The trees

are scattered, short baled brand leafed with some up to 16.5 meters in height. Trees such as shear

butter (butyraspemumparki) tamarind (tamarind us indicia). Locust bean and the rubber climber

(land dolphiaheudelotti) are common in drier areas, vegetation consists of low archard bush with

a scatter of shade trees like baubale silk cotton and shear butter, deleb palms are common along

valleys of rivers which are identified by dense growth of woodland, the composition of the

vegetation and its character are often caused by variation in soil types, topography, ground water

saturation and human interference (Akpenpuun and Chukwu, 2013).

1.7.6 Population Characteristics of the Study Area

The three principal ethnic groups of the Bosso are the Nupe, the Gwari and Hausa. Other groups

include the Koro, Kadara, Kamuku, Pangu, Fulani, Dukawa, Gade, Godara, Ganagana,,Munchi,

Ayadi, Ingwai, Dibo, Kakanda, Gulengi, Abishiwa and Shigini. Most of the groups can be said

to have evolved and instituted a system of political leadership with either a king or chief

surrounded by other title holders. All these groups are however interspersed with and in some

cases predominated by Hausas. Bosso has an area of 1692km2 and a population of 203,134 as

projected in 2019 using National Population Commission (NPC) figure of 2006 with 2.5%

annual growth rate (Akpenpuun and Chukwu, 2013).

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1.7.7 Land Use of the Study Area

The study area is sparsely inhabited by peasant Nupe and Gbagyi farmers. They cultivate the

land for crops such as Yam, Maize, Millet, Guinea-corn, Rice and Cassava. Nomadic Fulani also

inhabited the area and graze their cattle on the land (Akpenpuun and Chukwu, 2013).

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

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 2.1. Origin of Yam and Distribution

Yams are essential horticultural wares in West Africa and New Guinea; they were initially

developed in Africa and Asia around 8000 BC. Because of their abundance and thusly, their

significance to survival, yam is exceedingly respected in Nigeria formal culture and utilized as a

part of vegetable offered amid gift. Yam in Nigeria is the most common foodstuff. It is easily

accessed as it is generally cultivated in virtually every state of the country. The price of yam is

considerably very low which makes it the most common meal in the diet of Nigerians.

Agboola (2012) stated that yams are cultivated mainly as a food crops in Nigeria but a large

number of yams also enter into local and inter-regional market. Furthermore, he said that yams

are Nigeria’s leading root crops both in terms of land under cultivation and in the value of

products. To proof the above statement, in 2017 the production of yam in the world was 78.1

million tonnes out which 96% came from west Africa the main producers being Nigeria with

71% of the world production, follow by Cote D’Ivoire with 8.1%; Benin: 4.3% and Ghana 3.5%.

In the humid tropical countries of West Africa, yam is one of the most highly regarded food

products and is closely integrated into the social, cultural, economic and religious aspect of life.

One indication that the food crop is highly cherished in Nigeria is the fact that up till date, it is of

great necessity in every traditional ceremony.

The yam tuber is a good source of energy mainly from their carbohydrate contents since it is

low in fat and protein. The yam tuber is said to contain pharmacologically active substances such

as dioscorine, saponin and sapogenin. Dioscorine, which is the major alkaloid in yam, and it is

medicinally a heart stimulant Eka (2012). Also, it has been reported that yam is a good source of

16
industrial starch whose quality varies with species. Despite this importance of yam, its

production in Nigeria has not been given necessary attention as should be (Orkwor and Asiedu,

2009).

The production of yam in Nigeria has multiplied more than three times in the past 45 years from

6.7 million tonnes in 1961 to 39.3 million in 2006 (FAO, 2007). Though large area of land is

cultivated with yam, the productivity is minimal and this has brought about maximum increase in

output (Nwosu and Okoli, 2010). Though the cultivated area to yam has increased production,

however the growth rate has declined tremendously from the average 27.5% between (1986 and

1990) to 3.5% in (1996 to 1999) . This decline in average yield per hectare has been more

drastic, from 14.9% in (1986-1990) to 2.5% between (1996-1999) as documented by FAO,

(2014). This trend may not be unconnected with inefficiency of use resourced and other

allocations Nwosu and Okoli, (2010). It may therefore, be important for yam farmers to manage

the little resources at their disposal optimally for increased yield and sustainability of yam

production, (Udoh, 2015).

Cultivated yams belong to the family Dioscoreceaeand to the genus Dioscorea, as stated by

Udoh, (2015). The most cultivated species in Nigeria are the Dioscorearotundata (white yam),

Dioscoreacayenesis, (yellow or guinea yam) and Dioscoreaalata (water yam). There are also

species of wild yam growing in Nigeria whose tubers are collected for eating in times of food

shortage. Yam belongs to the class of food carbohydrate; hence serves as a source of

carbohydrates to the people of the tropical and subtropical Africa, Central and South America,

parts of Asia, the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, Dioscoreaspp constitutes a staple food in the

tropics Amaza (2014). Yams can be prepared in various ways depending on the choice of the

17
consumer, after peeling off its skin, it can be boiled, fried, mashed, dried etc. which is also

processed into various staple, intermediate and end product forms Coursey, (2017).

The world production of yam is worth over 30million tonnes per annum, out of which Nigeria

produces about 22million tonnes per annum according to FAO, (2014). Despite this high

quantity of yam produced in Nigeria, the demand of yam is always greater than the supply.

However, about 25% of the total yield has been estimated to be lost to the infestation of pest and

disease annually,also over 50% of the yam tubers produced and harvested in Nigeria are lost in

storage (FAO, 2014).

Rainfall provides most of the needed water for agriculture in the tropics. The role of moisture in

agriculture is even more spectacular in tropics this is because of relative high temperature

throughout the year, the rate of evaporation is constantly high. On the other hand, rainfall is

highly seasonal over most part of the tropics. In the tropics, temperature is high all year round, to

ensure the growth of crops over most parts of the tropics with exception of few mountain areas,

the growing season/harvest unlike in the temperate region is determined by availability of

rainfall (Ayoade, 2003).

Yams are the important food crops in many tropical and subtropical countries. Most

advantageous is that this crop can be cultivated even by the side of the roads, homestead

gardens, houses and in the jungles, etc. No extra land is needed for yam cultivation like other

root and tuber crops, such as potato and sweet potato. Different ethnic groups cultivated yam

under shade in hill and forests in Bangladesh. No attempt was made to release any variety

considering the marginal economic importance of the crop, which is not evenly grown on a

18
commercial scale. Before the introduction of potato, the yams were used in this country as

common vegetables. This has now been replaced by potato (Zakari, 2014).

2.2. Botany/ Morphology of Yam

Yams are angiosperms or flowering plants and are monocotyledons. The genus dioscorea is by

far the largest genus within this family. The diocorea are predominantly tropical plants and are

distributed throughout the tropics except in the most arid areas. A few species inhibit the warmer

parts of the temperate zones. But these are mostly of comparatively little economic importance

Yams are rhizomes producing annual shoots which are twinning except in the warfs pieces, the

direction of twinning being specific. They have storage organs that are commonly enlarged or

modified into a cormous structure from which one or more annual tuberous organs develop. The

tuber size and shape are variable depending on the species and growing condition and may range

from 2 to 3m in length and over 50kg in weight.

The tubers of most cultivars are cylindrical in shape with some root hairs. The stem consists of a

main stem and branches, leaves, petiolate, usually correlate either simply, palmate lobed or

usually winged, wingless in trichopus and in few species of dioscoreaconsisting of hard

endosperm and marginal pockets. (coursey, 1977).

2.2.1 Yam Diseases

Yam has a range of diseases that affects its growth and preservation. These diseases are broadly

classified into two (2) major types. These include;

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The field disease and store disease. But for the purpose of this research the field disease would

only be considered.

2.2.2. Field Diseases

The field diseases are those diseases that cause economic damage to yam in the field from the

seedling stage to the point of harvest.

Below are major field diseases that affect yam production;

2.2.2.1. Yam Anthracnose Disease

This is caused mostly by the fungus Colletotrichumgloeosporioides according to IITA (2014)

reported that Glomerelacingulata (isolate number IMI W3725) was the yam anthracnose

inducing pathogen in South Western Nigeria. G. cingulata is the perfect state of C.

gloeosporioides, the form that is usually found causing field anthracnose disease. A small dark

brown or black lesion on the leaves, petioles and stems are observed on susceptible yam

cultivars as the first symptoms. The lesion is often surrounded by a chlorotic halo enlarged and

coalesces, resulting in extensive necrosis of the leaves and die-back of the stem, a scorched

appearance is seen which results from withered leaves and stem dieback of the plant hence the

name 'scorch' disease (IITA, 2014).

Previous work of Amaza, (2014) indicates that yam anthracnose is a disease complex, which has

however been associated with the activities of Colletotrichumgloeosporioides,

Curvulariapallescens, Curvulariaeragrostides, Pestalotiasp and Rhizoctoniasolani. These

associated fungi were also found to induce necrotic lesion of varying sizes on the leaves of

diascoreaalata. PANS (1984) have reported that Pestalotiaspp mainly affects

20
dioscoreaesculenta but appear to act as a secondary invader after infection by C. gloeosporioides

on dioscoreaalata and dioscoreacayenensis. Yahaya, (2014) had reported that majority of the

symptoms that causes yam anthracnose in Nigeria are probably attributed to the influence of by

R. solani often in the absence of C. gloeosporioides. However, Yahaya (2014) had reported that

interaction existed between C. gloeosporioidesandR. solaniin anthracnose disease complexes of

yam. Although the presence and the activities of the other pathogens, which are likely

responsible for the complexity of the disease, might be playing a significant role in the

development and the severity of anthracnose disease of yam. However, the activities of the other

pathogens are probably enhanced by the death of plant cells caused by toxic metabolites

produced by C. gloeosporioides (Amusa., 2014).

The phytotoxic metabolite extracted from the culture of the C. gloeosporioides and even from

the C. gloeosporioidesinfected leaves were able in the absence of the pathogen to induce similar

necrotic lesion on yam leaves and stems Amusa, (2014).The anthracnose inducing pathogen is a

ubiquitous pathogen infecting several crops. C. gloeosporioides overwinters in leaves, stems,

and seeds and in infected soil (Amusa, 2014).

2.2.4. Yam Mosaic Virus Disease

This disease is caused by an aphid-transmitted potyvirus that infects several species of

Dioscorea, particularly dioscoreaalata, dioscoreacayenensis, dioscorearotundata and

dioscoreatrifida. The symptoms observed in each host can be vein banding, curling, mottling,

green-spotting, flecking etc. (IITA, 2014). Yam mosaic virus (YMV) is considered to cause the

most severe losses in yams. It is known that the most economically important virus diseases of

yam so far characterized are caused by members of the poty virus group, but there is inadequate

21
information on the number Commelinaerecta were found to harbour the pathogen as researched

by Amusa, (2014). The effect of this disease on yield has not been investigated, but we have

observed that under severe attack yield loss of more than 50% could be obtained.

2.2.5. Other Foliage Diseases

Other foliage diseases occasionally encountered on the yam field include zonate leaf spot

induced by Curvulariaeragroistides, and Pestalotia macro trichia PANS, (1984), Amusa,

(2014). Foliar symptoms of nematode infections on food yams are occasionally observed. Early

yellowing, and leaf fall termination of vine growth have been seen on dioscorearotundata

infected with M. incognita, but infections only rarely reduces total tuber yield of these yams

(Adger et al, 2003)

2.2.6 Yam Disease Management

Yam diseases control has been extensively studied, and several measures have been

recommended. These include the use of crop rotation, fallowing and planting of healthy

materials and the destruction of infected crop cultivars (Adejuwon, et al, 2011). For soil borne

diseases such as nematodes and sclerotium diseases, the site on which yam plants are to be

cultivated are often recommended for soil testing for the presence of the pathogen Amusa,

(2014). Nematode can be controlled by the use of crop rotation and the use of nematicides such

as carbofuran granular at the planting. Dipping seeds in Nemacuron before planting also

eliminate the inoculum of the pathogen from the planting materials. Early plowing and thorough

disking which exposes the sclerotia to early germination and exhaustion before planting has also

been recommended by Amusa, (2014). Planting of yam sets with disease-free material has been

22
found very effective in reducing nematode problems. Yam sets are often treated with a

suspension of Fernasan D or two handfuls of wood ash in 4 liters of water after which the yam

sets are spread under shade for the cut surface to dry before planting. Use of virus-free planting

materials and meristem culture has been recommended in the case of controlling viral diseases.

It has been reported that the most effective and desirable means of controlling field yam diseases

is by the selection and planting of resistant cultivars. The use of anthracnose resistant cultivars

(e.g. TDA 291, TDA 297) bred and released by the international Institute of tropical Agriculture

(IITA) has been advocated (IITA, 2014). Yam like any other crop is often evaluated for disease

incidence and severity in field and green house using artificial or natural inoculation of the

pathogen. However, these screening procedures are very cumbersome and time consuming.

Screening for resistance varieties with the use of toxic metabolite of Colletotrichumspp has been

found effective, reliable and comparable to the conventional screening methods). Yam is a good

source of energy; 100g provides 118 calories. Its crunchy edible tuber chiefly composed of

complex carbohydrates and soluble dietary fiber. Dietary fibers help reduce constipation,

decrease bad (LDL) cholesterol levels.

2.3 The Effect of Manure Application and Mineral Fertilizer on Yam Production

For most farmers, the application of manure and mineral fertilizer is believed to enhance speedy

growth in plants. An experiment carried out by Adler, (2017) using manure and mineral fertilizer

gave the following result, there is an increase of about 23% in tuber biomass production under

mineral fertilizer application, 16% increase under manure application and around 10% increase

under combined application of manure and mineral fertilizer when compared to the unfertilized

control. The positive response of yam tuber to fertilization was due to a prolonged vegetative

23
growth phase leading to longer growth duration. However, the increase in tuber biomass

production is not significant. Working with Adler, (2012) found no significant differences in dry

matter yield when plots were fertilized with 0, 28, 56, 84, and 112 kg N ha-1 and attributed the

lack of response to the high level (0.06%) of total N in the soil.

2.3.1 Weeds and Their Control in Yam

In developing countries, the demand for food far exceeds the present production levels,

especially in Africa. This is due to many constraints, amongst which are inefficient management

of inputs, poor technologies and retrogressive and unstable government policies. Weeds are

among the major crop pests in the humid and sub-humid tropics where adequate rainfall,

humidity, and temperature favour their growth. Theses reduce yields by competing with crops

for light, soil, moisture and nutrients. Subsistence farmers in the tropics are often unaware of the

magnitude of damage done their crops caused by weeds. This is so because their effect is less

obviously compared to other pests and diseases. African countries have by large depended on

abundant arable land, cheap family labour and inefficient weeding method for food production.

However, with the rapid rise in human population, parallel with increasing limited and expensive

farm labour and finite production input, improvement of food production technologies input has

become necessary.

2.3.2 Health Benefits of Yam

• Being a good source of complex carbohydrate, it regulates steady rise in blood sugar

levels. For the same reason, yam recommended as low glycemic index healthy food.

24
 • The tuber is an excellent source of B-complex group of vitamins. It provides adequate

daily requirements of pyridoxine (vitamin B6), thiamin (vitamin B1), riboflavin, foliates,

pantothenic acid and niacin. These vitamins mediate various metabolic functions in the

body.

• Fresh root also contains good amounts of anti-oxidant vitamin; Vitamin-C. Provides

about 29% of recommended levels per 100 g. Vitamin C play some important roles as

anti-aging, immune functional booster, wound healing, and bone growth.

• Yam contains small amounts of vitamin-A, and beta-carotene levels. Carotenes convert

into vitamin A inside the body. Both these compounds are strong antioxidants. Vitamin

A has many functions like maintaining healthy mucus membranes and skin, night vision,

growth and protection from lung and oral cavity cancers.

• Further, the tuber indeed is one of the good sources of minerals such as copper, calcium,

potassium, iron, manganese, and phosphorus. 100 g provides about 816 mg of Potassium.

Potassium is an important component of cell and body fluids which helps controlling

heart rate and blood pressure by countering hypertensive effects of sodium. Copper is

required in the production of red blood cells. Manganese is used by the body as a co-

factor for the antioxidant enzyme, superoxide dismutase. Iron is required for red blood

cell formation.

2.3.3 Economic and Social Importance

Harvested tubers are preserved for use as planting materials, for household consumption or

preserved for market when prices are high. Yam is better than cassava from a nutritional point of

view that is; higher vitamin c and crud protein level but second to it as the most important root

25
crop. The ability of yam to store for some months after harvest ensures food security. A few

commercial products such as dry yam tuber flakes or flour from the tubers are marketed

especially in Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire or are exported outside Africa. In 2012, nearly 6million

hectares were planted with yam throughout the world FAOSTATS, (2012). More than 69 of this

total area is located in Nigeria. Bekele, et al (2017) observed that yam contributes more than 200

dietary calories per capita daily for more than 150 million people in West Africa while serving

as an important source of income for the people.

2.4 The Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Activities in Regions of Nigeria

Nigeria is an agrarian because about 70% of the population engages in agricultural production at

a subsistence level despite the fact that the country depends heavily on the oil industry for its

budgetary revenues as stated by National Report, (2002). Agricultural holdings are generally

small and scattered. Traditional small holders, who use simple techniques of production and the

bush-fallow system of cultivation, account for around two-thirds of Nigeria's total agricultural

production.

Nigeria's wide range of climate variation allows it to produce a wide variety of food and cash

crops. However, food production could not keep pace with population increase. Food shortage is

therefore linked with climate change (Adefolalu, 2008).

Generally, there are many factors influencing crop production and these include soil, relief,

climate and diseases among others. In relation to climate, rainfall is the main controlling variable

in tropical agriculture since it provides soil moisture for crops and grasses for animals.

Agriculture largely depends on climate to function. Hence, precipitation, solar radiation, wind,

26
temperature, relative humidity and other climatic parameters affect and solely determine the

global distribution of crops and livestock as well as their productivity. Akinsanaol, and Ogunjobi

(2014), described the four ways in which climate affect agricultural production; changes in

temperature and precipitation directly affect crop production and can even alter the distribution

of agro-ecological zones; increased CO2 is expected to have a positive effect on agricultural

production due to greater water use efficiency and higher rates of plant photosynthesis; runoff or

water availability is critical in determining the impact of climate change on crop production,

especially in Africa, and agricultural losses can result from climate variability and the increased

frequency of changes in temperatures and precipitation (including drought and floods).

Estimation by FAO (2014) is that by 2015, Nigeria and other West African countries are likely

to have agricultural losses of up to 4% due to climate change.

2.5 Appraisal of Reviewed Literature

For instance, in a research carried out by Ashok, et al., (2012) studied the effect of rainfall on

yam production in Kuta community with the use of linear regression and observed that there was

a continuous rise in the yield of yam coming from this area. In 2001 – 2009 a steady rise in yield

of yam was noticed until 2010 where there was a little drop. This thus shows that there was a

minimal variation in yam yield in Kuta community, Niger State Nigeria. It was also observed

that yam yield was very sensitive to rainfall variability. This probably may be due to the fact that

most agricultural productions in this area, was rain-fed and that about 95 percent of all cropland

of this zone depended on rainfall as the sole source of water supply for crop yield. In these rain-

dependent agro-ecosystems, the interaction of rainfall and other climatic elements determine the

availability of water for crop yield. They concluded that a statistically significant relationship

27
existed between rainfall variability and yam yield. This goes a long way to indicate that there is

an important relationship between rainfall and yam production. This means that rainfall is very

important for yam production. After the rains haves established it must be evenly distributed for

proper growth and enlargement of yam tubers. Consequently, yam production is indeed favoured

by moderate rainfall that is well spread.

Also, in the work of Zakari, et al., (2014) studied the impact of climate change on yam

production in Abuja Using the Pearson product-moment correlation technique to look at the

relationship between rainfall and yam yield, a correlation coefficient of 0.10 was obtained. Thus

means that 10% of the proposition of yam is explained by rainfall. Thus, concluded that a

positive relationship existed between yam production and rainfall over the Federal Capital

Territory.

Furthermore, according to Agboola and Ojeleye, (2012) in their work; Temporal Variation of

Rainfall Occurrence: The Effect On Tuber Crop Production in Niger Delta employed statistical

tools such as the co-efficient of variation and percentage as descriptive statistical tool also the

spearman rank correlation and Friedman Test were the inferential statistics that were employed.

In their work they said and I quote; Agriculture in the Niger Delta area like in the tropics

depends absolutely on climatic variables. The study explained that the most unreliable element

of climate in the tropics is rainfall. The study pointed out that annual rainfall does not affect

tuber crop production (yam and cassava) which are staple food crops. They stated categorically

that, inadequate rainfall is no problem for the areas, because the crop water requirement is

always met. Note that yam is cultivated outside vegetative zone, even in areas having little

rainfall.

28
In the study it was revealed that rainfall parameters like onset, duration and end affects tuber

crops production. This is because delay in onset of rainfall, means delay in planting of crops.

Long duration will mean delay in harvest, which will lead to rotten or dried produce. Hence,

early end in rainfall means that crop yield would be affected. Delayed end will result in delayed

harvest. Therefore, in this area due to the availability of water all year round, the necessity of

rainfall is not essential for yam production.

In addition, Nwosu and Okoli, (2010). In their research work titled How Fertilizer Affects Yam

Growth and Tuber across the Years made use of statistical tools such as analysis of variance was

performed making use of the general linear model in SAS.

They said, and I quote; the fertilizer applied in this study has significant yield. In 2006, however,

the increase in aboveground organs dry matter was not reflected in tuber dry matter increase,

probably due to possible imbalance between source (leaves) and sink (tubers) in which fertilizers

(NPKCa) had favoured leaves growth over the tubers. This physiological imbalance may be

related to bad water supply and distribution over the growth season in 2006. By contrast, D.

alatahas shown a good adaptation through the years under non-fertilization growth conditions by

producing similar yield. From these results, explanations are needed to understand source-sink

relationship in yam and investigation to clarify implication of mineral fertilizer in this important

process is warranted.

Huybers, et al., (2017), in their research work titled Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka

analysed the climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method and

five AOGCM experimental models. The model analysed the net revenue per hectare of the four

most important crops (rice, coconut, rubber, and tea) in the country. This paper focused more on

29
the precipitation effect on crop production while most literatures usually analyse the temperature

effect. It is mainly due to the greater range of precipitation across the country although the

limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts in the

study. Both the Ricardian method and five AOGCM experimental models revealed that the

effects of increase in precipitation are predicted to be beneficial to all crops tested and the

benefit ranges from 11 % to 122 % of the current net revenue of the crops in the model. On the

other hand, the impacts of increase in temperature are predicted to be harmful to the nation and

the loss ranges from−18 % to−50 % of the current agricultural productivity.

Nwosu and Okoli, (2011) have examined the impacts of climate change on agriculture in India

and Brazil. They employed three different methods for the analysis namely; the Ricardian

method, agro-economic model, and agro-ecological zone analysis. Environmental factors such as

farm performance, land value or net income and traditional economic inputs which are land and

labour, and support systems such as infrastructure were used as explanatory variables in the

models. Unlike most studies, this analysis pointed out the significance of the adaptation. They

argue that farmers will adapt to new condition due to climate change by making production

decisions which are in their own best interests. Crop choice is one of the examples of farmers’

adaptation to warmer weather in the paper. Wheat, corn, and rice are three crops as examples

since the regions in which they grow depend on the temperature. As temperature gets warmer

wheat farmers switch wheat to corn for making profits. Later, if temperature gets warmer again

enough to lose profits, farmers adapt to warmer weather thus switch to rice from corn. The

results of the Ricardian method, agro-economic model, and agro-ecological zone analysis

showed that increase in temperature will decrease the crop production especially the crops

grown in cool areas such as wheat. However, the authors argue that the result of the Ricardian

30
method suggests that farmers’ ability to adapt to new condition will mitigate the impacts of

climate change in the long run while the agro-economic model and agroecological zone analysis

would be more suitable for short run analysis since the adaptation is not included in the models.

In Nigeria, Agboola and Ojeleye (2012) examined the impact of climate change on food crop

production in Ibadan. The study adopted both primary and secondary data collection procedures.

For the secondary source of data, time series data covering 30 years were collected on climate

variables and the analysis was done with bi-variate Chi-square and ANOVA supported by

graphical illustrations. The study revealed that farmers have noted various changes in climate

conditions over the last two to three decades. It was further shown that there has been decline in

crop yields on food crop production due to reduction in rainfall and relative humidity and as well

as increase temperature.

Finally, Igwebuike i et al., (2014) examined climate change and crop production in Nigeria. The

study used three climatic variables namely temperature, rainfall and carbon in the atmosphere.

Ten crops were selected which are beans, cassava, cocoa, groundnut, maize, millet, potato, rice,

sorghum and yam. The study employed an error correction technique of analysis. The study first

examined the stationary status of the variables with the ADF-test and the PP-test and the results

revealed that all the variables became stationary after first difference except for temperature,

rainfall and output of beans production. They then proceeded to use the Johansen co-integration

test to establish long run relationship before estimating the parsimonious error model. In all, ten

models were estimated, one for each crop with the climatic variables included as explanatory

variables. Data for the study were extracted from the Food and Agriculture Organization

database online and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin on various issues. The study

31
revealed that the effect of climatic variables on crop production varies depending on the type of

crop and seasonal properties and length of days of the crop. In general, climate change effect

was found to be pronounced on the output of the crop. This is deduced from the results that some

seasonal crops that are harvested during the raining seasons were found to have been negatively

affected by rainfall. Carbon emission in the atmosphere was also found to have affected the

output of almost all the crops during the sample period. It was therefore recommended that

various mitigation and adaptation strategies necessary for increased output of these crops be

adopted by farmers. These include the use of improved crop varieties that survive adverse

climatic conditions, intercropping, soil conservation, changing planting dates in line with climate

changes, tree planting against harsh temperature and irrigation.

Among all the research work earlier carried out by the aforementioned researches, there was no

account of any who took into consideration, how the amount of rainfall for a particular growing

season could influence yam production; worthy to take note of, this research work studies the

rainfall variability pattern over the period of years, taking note of the onset of the rainfall, its

intensity and finally, rainfall cessation. This work gives an account of the reality if yam

production is higher in the peak of the rainy season or if rainfall amount is insignificant for yam

production.

32
 CHAPTER THREE

3.0 RESEARCH METHOD

3.1 Introduction

This chapter contains a detail of the materials (data) that was used and the procedures that will

be followed in the study of the effect of rainfall variability on yam production in Bosso LGA,

Niger State

3.2 Description of Materials and Data

A variety of data was used which will also be obtained from a variety of sources. These include;

3.2.1 Secondary Data

This data will be obtained from a good number of reliable sources. They will originated by the

researcher. The secondary data that was used while embarking on this research work include;

weather data, maps, past project work, thesis, journal, and relevant literatures.

Meteorological weather data was acquired and used for this research work. The data was

obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Minna (NIMET). The data acquired include

rainfall data. Also, data for crop was obtained from the Agricultural development program

Minna.

33
3.3 Data Analysis

Series of data analysis was used to achieve the objectives listed above. The following analyses

are;

3.3.1 To examine the pattern of rainfall variability

Coefficient of Variation (CV) is a measure of relative variability which comprises of mean and

standard deviation were used to determine the rainfall variability. The rainfall variability was

examined using the Coefficient of Variation CV which is given as.

CV =
[ ]
SD
RF
×100 % 3.1

Standard deviation (sd) is defined by

( RF−RF )
SD =
N

where RF = the annual rainfall for a given period of 2012-2021

RF = the average annual

N= number of variable

3.3.2 Trend analysis

To establish trends analysis of the yam crops yield in the study area. The Mann-Kendall test

(Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) model as modified by Yue (2004) was used for identifying trends

34
in time series data to determine trend analysis. According to Yue (2004) test the trend line will

show the basic long term underlying pattern.

Let x1, x2 …Xn represent n data points where Xj represents the data point at time j. Then the Mann-

Kendall statistic (S) is given by

n−1 n
S=∑ ∑ sign(x j−¿ x k ¿ )3.2 ¿ ¿
k=1 j=k +1

VAS (S) = ¿ ¿ 3.3

Where:

n = the number of data points

ti = the number of ties for the i value

m = the number of tied values (a tied group is a set of sample data having the same value)

{
S−1
=ifs>0
√VAR ( s )
Z= 0=ifs=0 3.4
S+1
=ifs <0
√ VAR (s)

The test statistic Z\will be used to measure of significance of trend. This test statistic can be

used to test the null hypothesis, H0. If | Z| is greater than Zs/2, where α represents the chosen

significance level (example: 5% with Z 0.025 = 1.96) then the null hypothesis is invalid

implying that the trend is significant.

35
The trend is said to be decreasing if Z is negative and the computed probability is greater than

the level of significance. The trend is said to be increasing if the Z is positive and the computed

probability is greater than the level of significance. If the computed probability is less than the

level of significance, there is no trend.

3.3.3 Linear Regression

The linear regression was employed to examine the relationship between rainfall and Yam

production over the period of 10 years respectively. Through the use of the linear regression on

each of these variables was analysed at a time, which is to say, their analysis was done

individually. This was used to model and analyse some variable with the aim of establishing a

relationship between dependent and independent variables. Regression analysis was helpful in

understanding how typical values of dependent variable change if a given independent variable

are altered and keeping other independent variables constant. Regression graph is plotted to give

visual relationship.

𝑦 = 𝑎1 + 𝑏 1 𝑥1 3.5

Where

Y = Independent variable (yam yield)

𝑥1 = Dependent variable (Rainfall)

36
 CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This chapter presents the results and discusses the various findings in the study. Among issues

presented are:

4.1 Examination of the Daily Rainfall Pattern at the Onset of the Rainy Season

The daily rainfall data for the month of April appears to be the beginning of the rainy season in

the study area, for the period of ten years from (2012 – 2021).

70

60

50
Rainfall Amount

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Days

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Figure 4.1 Daily Rainfall Pattern for the month of April from (2012 – 2021)
Source: Authors computation (2021).

As seen from the figure 4.1, the green line which represents 2017 appears to have the highest tip

among all others. From this, it is deduced that on the (4th) day of 2017 the highest rainfall

amount was recorded at (57.9mm) and also, the lowest amount of rainfall recorded was zero

37
which was recorded in several days of all the years. But amazingly, in all ten (10) years, there

was no rainfall from 8th – 11th throughout all the years.

4.1.1 Examination of the Daily Pattern of Rainfall for The Growing Season of Yam

For good yam production, planting at high standard density, can be carried out in the month of

(May). This gives the basis for studying the daily rainfall pattern of the month of (May) for the

period under study (2012 – 2021). Hence, Appendix (2), presents the data.

70
60
Rainfall amount

50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Days

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Figure 4.2 Daily Rainfall Pattern for the Months of May (2012 - 2021)
Source Authors computation (2021).

4.1.2 Examination of the Daily Rainfall Pattern at the End of the Rainy Season.
From the data obtained on the study area, it was carefully observed that, the last month that had

record of rainfall was October. November and December recorded no rainfall at all, with this

observation, the months of October was then chosen to represent the month which brought the

rainy season to an end. Hence, for the period under study (2012 - 2021), the daily rainfall in the

months of October shall then be considered. As seen in (Appendix 3).

38
 70
Rainfall Amount (mm)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Days

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Figure 4.3 Daily Rainfall Pattern at the end of the Rainy Season
Source Authors Computation (2021)

The figure4.3 presents the day with highest rainfall as (1st) day of October 2012 at (61.7mm) as

being represented by the dark ash colour on the chart. Next to the highest value of rainfall is

royal blue colour on the chart (10th. day of October 2018 at 55mm) and the least was recorded in

every year as zero.

4.1.3 Examination of the pattern of Yam production from (2012 – 2021)

The total yam produced for a given growing season was calculated and summed up to give the

annual yam production in (‘000 tons) for the period under study (2012 – 2021). Table 4.1 gives

the data for yam produced.

39
Table 4.1 Yam produced in Bosso from 2012 - 2021
YEAR YAM PRODUCTION
2012 2940000
2013 2987240
2014 4224800
2015 4685810
2016 5399300
2017 6236200
2018 4846110
2019 6091046
2020 14928936
2021 36101860
Source Niger State Ministry of Agriculture (2021)

40000000

35000000

30000000
Yam production (tons)

25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year

Figure 4.4 the pattern of Yam production from 2012 – 2021

Source Authors computation (2021).

As seen from figure 4.4, there was a fluctuation in the yam production. There was a steady rise in

the in the production from 2012 down to 2017. The highest production was observed in 2021 at

(36101860), and the least production was obtained in the year 2012 at (149289).

40
4.2 The trend in yam production for the period under study (2012-2021).

The trend of annual Yam production in the study area is shown in table 4.2. The table shows a

significant positive increasing trend in the study area. A significant increasing trend at alpha

value of 99 % was found in Bosso. This increase might result from deliberate efforts by

government to export yam from the State which makes it a good source of foreign income. The

entire agriculture zone in the State support yam cultivation, this implies that there are more land

for yam farming and hence the reason for the high yield across the State. Yam grows in areas of

annual rainfall around 1200mm, the mean annual rainfall across Niger state is above 1000mm;

this shows that yam farming is boosted with abundant rainfall, hence the increased in production.

Table 4.2 Trend of Annual Yam production in the Study Area

Station First Year Last Year No. of Years Test-Z Q-value

Bosso 2012 2021 10 1.82+ 2.038

***Trend is significant at α=0.001=99.9%, **Trend is significant at α=0.01 = 99%,

*Trend is significant at α=0.05= 95%, +Trend is significant at α=0.1= 90% confidence level

4.3 Examination of the Relationship Between Rainfall Pattern and Yam Production for The

Growing Season

Since yam is cultivated in the month of May, the rainfall in this period is being considered, that

is to say, the daily rainfall data for the month of May is summed up to give the monthly data.

Which is then used to compute the relationship between the two. The table below presents the

data for the two variables.

41
Table 4.3 Rainfall and Yam Production Data 2004 - 2013
Year Yam Production Rainfall

2012 2940000 151.9

2013 2987240 87.0

2014 4224800 195.0

2015 4685810 156.6

2016 5399300 146.8

2017 6236200 101.4

2018 4846110 131.5

2019 6091046 140.4

2020 14928936 204.5

2021 36101860 142.8

Source NIMET Minna (2021).

40000000

35000000

30000000
Yam production

25000000

20000000
f(x) = − 104731.213398157 x + 23065581.6673358
15000000 R² = 0.251097713078246
10000000

5000000

0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Rainfall

Figure 4.5 relationship between rainfall and yam production in Minna from 2012 – 2021
Source Authors computation (2021)

42
As seen from the figure 4.5, the year with the highest yam production was 2021 with a total

output of (36101860 tons) but the rainfall for the month of May of that particular year was

(142.8mm), furthermore, the least production of yam was obtained in 2012 at (2940000 tons),

whereas rainfall for the month of May in that year was (151.9mm). The year with the highest

rainfall was 2020 with an amount of (204.5mm) and yam production in that year was very high

(14928936). In the year 2013, there was a little rainfall in the month of May with an amount of

(87mm) and yam production in that year was low at (2987240 tons). The linear regression

analysis carried out between the two variable gave a positive relationship with a value of (R² =

0.023 and R = 0.15)

4.4 Summary of Findings

As seen from the various analysis above, rainfall in a distinctive way influences yam production

in diverse ways. As observed even though there were fluctuations in the years, that is to say, the

rainfall did not change in either an ascending or descending order all through the period under

study, there were a reasonable number of years where we saw an increase in yam production due

to an accompanying increase in rainfall amount, and also, when the yam production reduced, the

rainfall amount was also low. But just in the case of few years we observed that there was no

increase in yam production despite an increase in the rainfall.

CHAPTER FIVE

43
 SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Summary

The positive relationship exists between yam production and rainfall in the area under study. As

for the rainfall, it was observed that in 2020, where the rainfall value was maximum, the

accompanying yam production was also very high, also in 2013 when the rainfall amount was

recorded least, the yam production for that year was not much, it was observed to be the second

least among all the years. Any variation in result could be associated with the source of data and

the study areas. Summarily, it can be stated that there is an established positive relationship

between climatic data (rainfall) and the production of yam for the period under study.

5.2 Conclusion

The major objective of the research is to assess the effects of rainfall on yam production in

Bosso between (2012 – 2021). By making analysis with the use of linear regression, it shows

that rainfall affects the production of yam for the specified period of time under study.

The inability of farmers to have access to meteorological data, inconsistent training of farmers

on weather variables and inadequate extension service are major challenges confronting farmers

in their ability to cope with the effects of climate on crops. It can be concluded that there is a

positively relationship exists between rainfall and yam production. It is therefore important not

to ignore other factors of the environment like soil fertility when trying to determine how some

climatic variable affects the production of yam.

5.3 Recommendations

44
The following are recommended based on the result obtained from the research:

i. Farmers should seek better advice on the weather requirement for each crop, so as

not to assume that all crops must have excessive rainfall before they can be

cultivated, as seen from the analysis of rainfall and yam production.

ii. As seen also from the findings, at the onset of the rain (April) farmers should be

getting ready to till the soil, so that in (May), when the rain is fully established they

can then sow the yam settee into the soil so as to avoid late planting which might

affect production.

iii. As seen from the findings, rainfall is an essential element of climate that stimulates

maximum productivity of yam, hence yam cultivation should be programmed in

such a way that at the peak of the rainfall the yam settee should already be in the

soil so as to obtain high yam produce

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APPENDIX 1

Table 4.1 Daily Rainfall Pattern for the onset of Rain

48
Days 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.0
4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.3 57.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9
8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.4
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0
18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 0.0 30.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 40.5
20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 17.3 0.0 0.0 2.7
22 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 0.0 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 0.0 0.0 21.3 0.0 19.9 0.0 0.0 22.0 4.5 0.0
25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0
26 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 8.4
28 0.0 1.1 8.6 12.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0
30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
Source NIMET Minna (2021).

APPENDIX 2
Table 4.2 Examining The Daily Rainfall Pattern for The Months of May (2012 - 2021)

49
Day 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
s
1 10.4 5.6 0.0 29.6 0 0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.4
2 19.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0
4 0.0 38.4 0.0 0.0 6 16.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 0.0 20.3 0.0 0.0 12.3 TR 0.0 0.0 0.0 TR
7 0.0 16.3 37.3 33.1 0 0 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.0
8 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0 35.6 0.7 41.3 0.0 0.0
9 0.0 0.0 27.0 21.5 0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 15.5 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
11 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0 0 10.9 37.2 13.8 16.3
14 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 TR 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
15 0.0 0.0 21.5 1.1 0 0 0.0 0.0 25.6 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 TR 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 14.7 0.0 9.9 0.3 1.2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.5 5.0 20.5 0.0 20 3.8
19 0.0 0.0 36.2 0.0 0.6 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 0.0 0.0 21.0 5.7 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
21 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 16.6 0.0 0.0 14.8 0 0 0.0 16.1 0.0 9.8
23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0 40.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 TR 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0
25 30.6 1.5 22.6 4.0 60.5 20.7 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0
26 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.2 TR 0.0 4.9 1.7 0.0
27 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0 0 26.9 25.8 0.0 0.0
28 14.3 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.1 0 27.5 0.0 36.5 0.0
29 0.0 0.0 8.1 21.2 4.5 TR 0.0 1.8 41.8 2.6
30 34 0.0 TR 0.5 0 TR 0.0 3.9 39.7 0.0
31 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0 0 2.8 0.1 1.6 0.0
Source NIMET Minna (2021).

APPENDIX 3

50
Table 4.3 Daily Rainfall Data for The Month of October

Days 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1 7.2 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.8 0 0.0 0.0 61.6 0.0
2 10.9 0.0 2.4 0.0 TR 0 1.8 3.5 0.0 0.3
3 15.0 0.0 5.9 13.4 21.7 TR 1.9 0.0 0.4 0.0
4 15.7 3.3 3.4 0.0 6.7 10.2 1.6 0.0 13.8 6.6
5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 5.6 1.9 11.8 0.2 0.0 4.3
6 0.0 31.5 0.0 5.2 18.1 31.2 5.4 0.0 2.3 24.3
7 0.0 2.7 7.1 0.0 0 0.3 8.2 8.3 19.1 0.0
8 0.0 9.2 24.5 19.5 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TR
9 15.5 11.9 9.9 0.0 11.1 0 26.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
10 0.0 15.6 3.4 0.0 55 0 2.8 19.5 4.2 0.4
11 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 TR 0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 0.0 3.2 19.8 0.0 1 2.1 0.0 16.0 0.0 0.0
13 10.4 1.9 16.4 0.0 8.9 5.5 3.2 7.2 0.0 0.4
14 0.0 0.8 21.4 0.0 0 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.8
15 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 10.7 0 0.0 14.0 10.9 0.2
16 0.0 0.0 TR 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
17 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0 0.6 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 0.0 12.9 0.1 0.0 0 0 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.0
19 0.0 0.0 6.4 18.3 0 6.9 1.2 8.4 0.0 0.0
20 0.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 0.0 0.0 6.1 1.8 0 0 12.0 12.4 28.2 0.0
22 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0 5.9 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0
23 0.0 0.0 24.3 1.5 0 4.6 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 2.9 0.0 0.0 32.7 0 6.2 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 0 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0
26 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0 0 2.3 0.0 2.6 0.0
27 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0
28 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 TR 9.5 0.0 13.7 0.0
29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source NIMET Minna (2021)

51