Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Environmental Development
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envdev

Soy water footprint and socioeconomic development: An analysis

in the new agricultural expansion areas of the Brazilian cerrado
(Brazilian savanna)
João Francisco Severo dos Santos, Líliana Pena Naval *
Federal University of Tocantins, Environmental Science Département, Environmental Sanitation Laboratory, Quadra 109 Norte, Av. NS 15, ALCNO-
14, Bloco B Sala 07 Plano Diretor Norte, 77001-090, Palmas, TO, Brazil

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The objective of this study was to verify the relationship between the Water Footprint (WF) of soy
Agriculture production and the socioeconomic development of the municipalities located in the recent
Environment agricultural expansion areas of the Cerrado (brazilian savanna), between 2007 and 2016. For this
Economy
purpose, the development of soy producing and non-producing municipalities was compared,
Development
Sustainability
according to different categories of consolidation time and economic weight of this culture,
through multivariate analysis. The correlation between the development index and the absolute
WF was calculated. The results found refute the hypothesis that the development of producing
municipalities is a reflection of the economic advances provided by the soybean producer in these
areas. Those who have consolidated their soy production for over 30 years are the ones that
showed the best overall development. However, they did not show good results in the distribution
of income and employment creation. They show or register worse health rates when compared to
municipalities that do not produce soy in the same region. The size of the areas destined to the
cultivation of this conmodity is associated to local climate changes that put productive and
environmental sustainability at risk, since, for each unit of growth of the municipal development
indicator, water consumption increased 17 times and it was found the water footprint of soybeans
is inversely linked to the municipal development index.

1. Introduction

The Brazilian agricultural sector is internationally recognized for its high integration in the globalized market, with emphasis on
the production of beef, cotton, coffee and soy (IBGE, 2017). The recent expansion (from the 2000s) of soybean crops [Glycine max (L.)
Merrill] in Brazil, especially in Cerrado (brazilian savanna) - areas of states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia-, the four states
together are referred to as Matobipa. Matopiba has promoted intense national and international debates regarding economic, social
and environmental sustainability (Lovarelli et al., 2020), considering that sustainable development will be promoted when a pro­
ductive activity is economically viable, socially just and environmentally adequate (Lahsen et al., 2016; Duić et al., 2015).
Since the 1960s, about half of the Cerrado’s natural vegetation has disappeared. The Matopiba region is the only one that still has
more than 50% of the natural vegetation. However, soy continues to expand and claim new territories under the pretext of promoting

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: liliana@uft.edu.br (L.P. Naval).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100670
Received 4 August 2020; Received in revised form 7 July 2021; Accepted 29 August 2021
Available online 8 September 2021
2211-4645/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

development (Lopes et al., 2021). Data from analysis of more than 2500 satellite images, collected in the 2000, 2007 and 2014 revealed
that approximately 85% of agricultural expansion in the Cerrado of states outside Matopiba, except Mato Grosso, occurred by con­
verting pastures or other agricultural crops, but in Matopiba, 65% of this expansion occurred on native vegetation (Carneiro Filho,
2016).
The Cerrado has the largest biodiversity and heterogeneity of landscapes among the world’s savannas (Lopes et al., 2021; Sano
et al., 2019). In the Cerrado, water and temperature cycles are strongly influenced by vegetation characteristics (Strassburg et al.,
2017). The advance of monoculture has been the main motivator for the direct and indirect removal of native tree species, promotion
of fires and alteration of the chemical properties of the soil (IMAFLORA, 2018; Ayala et al., 2016). Such factors are responsible for most
greenhouse gas emissions and can affect the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, increasing the risk of water stress in some
regions (IMAFLORA, 2018; Broecker, 2017; Trenberth, 2015; IPCC, 2014).
The endogenous theory advocates that development is linked to the use, execution and valorization of local resources. In this way,
the social control of the process of accumulation of factors of production would enable the generation of growing income, through the
rational use of resources and the introduction of innovation. This would allow the generation of jobs and income, leading to the
maintenance or expansion of the welfare state (Abu-Ghunmi et al., 2016).
Assessing the socioeconomic sustainability of soy production and its interaction with the biotic and abiotic factors of the Cerrado is
an important strategy for better planning of public policies, based on evidence of opportunity cost, in relation to ecosystem services in
the region (Ritten et al., 2018; Lahsen et al., 2016; Duić et al., 2015) and the use of water footprint (WF) analysis provides water use
indicators that make it possible to map and quantify the impact of all phases of the production chain on water resources, in order to
assess sustainability (Araújo et al., 2019; Hoekstra, 2016; Porkka et al., 2016), as it is a tool built to provide support to decision making
in the field of water resources management.
Water footprint is a tool that has great potential for education of the population, in relation to the value of water and so that
decision makers can better assess the opportunity cost of each product or productive system, to promote the sustainable use of water
(Abu-Ghunmi et al., 2016; Hoekstra, 2016).
Brazilian studies on WF have focused only on calculating the resources used (Hoekstra, 2017; Lopes and Guimarães, 2016) and do
not address the interrelationship between expansion of culture and the socioeconomic sustainability of this phenomenon.
In addition, in Brazil, there are two agricultural borders: one on the edge of the Amazon and the other in Matopiba. The envi­
ronmental problems caused by the advance of agribusiness in the Amazon have great international visibility, which increases legal
control and political resistance to predatory changes (Calmon, 2020).
The Cerrado, especially in Matopiba, where there is still great coverage of natural vegetation and harmonic practices of indigenous
and quilombola (afro-descendants originated from groups of runaway slaves during the imperial period) communities, does not have
similar attention to the Amazon (Lopes et al., 2021; Calmon, 2020; INPE, 2013; Miranda et al., 2014).

Fig. 1. Territorial delimitation of this study comprises the soy producing municipalities of the northeastern states of Bahia, Maranhão and Piauí, the
entire state of Tocantins located in the northern region of Brazil.
Source: Miranda et al. (2014).

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

The destruction of Matopiba’s biodiversity seems almost invisible, although it puts the Amazon at risk due to local climate changes
that expand savanic and semi-arid formations on ecotones (Amaral e Silva et al., 2020; Lahsen et al., 2016). Furthermore, the pollution
and scarcity of water resources associated with the soy production chain and its expansion can jeopardize the environmental and
economic viability of this production in the medium term (Amaral e Silva et al., 2020; Severo Santos and Naval, 2020).
Few studies have evaluated aspects of the socioeconomic sustainability of the soy production model in Matopiba. The objective of
this study was to analyze the relationship between the water footprint of soybean production in Matopiba and the socioeconomic
development of producing municipalities.

2. Material and methods

2.1. Characterization of the study area

The study area is located between the 50◦ 45 ‘and 41◦ 45′ meridians of longitude West and the parallels 2◦ 15 ‘and 15◦ 15’ south
latitude (Fig. 1). Composed of territories of four federal units in Brazil, this region is known as “Matopiba”, a term that refers to the
union of the initial letters of the name of the member states of this new agricultural supply. The Matopiba limits were proposed by the
Strategic Territorial Intelligence Group (GITE), from the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), and encompass
Brazilian states of Tocantins (total area), Piauí (southwest, south and west), Maranhão (northeast portion) and Bahia (western
portion). Encompassing around 290 thousand agricultural establishments in 337 municipalities distributed as follows: 139 in
Tocantins, 135 in Maranhão, 33 in Piaui and 30 in Bahia (Miranda et al., 2014).
They are approximately 73 million hectares, where there are 46 conservation units, 35 indigenous lands and 781 land reform
settlements and quilombola areas. In 2016, the population of the Matopiba was estimated at 6.3 million of people, representing 3.1% of
the Brazilian population. Demographic density was 8.6 hab/km2, much lower than the national, 24.2 hab/km2. In 2010, the rural
population of Matopiba was of the order of 2 million people. This means that only 66.1% of the region’s total population lives in urban
areas, a rate well below the country, which in 2010 was 84% (IBGE, 2017; Miranda et al., 2014).

Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the physical characteristics of the study area, where: (A) biomes composition, (B) annual average rainfall volume, (C)
annual average temperatures, (D) altimetry, (E) climatic units and (F) hydrographic regions. Source: Miranda et al. (2014).

3
J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

The natural characteristics of the area delimited for the study are presented in Fig. 2. It is observed that 91% of the area is composed
of the Cerrado biome (Fig. 2A). However, there are ecotones Cerrado-Amazon (7,3%) and Cerrado-Caatinga (1,7%). In the cerrado
there is a great diversity of ecosystems with different physiognomies. About 32% are forest formations where trees above 15 m
predominate, with a virtually continuous canopy. The savanna formations, where tree and shrub species predominate, spread over a
grassy substrate, without the formation of a continuous canopy, corresponds to 61% from Matopiba. The remaining 7% of the area,
correspond to the rural formations, where the herbaceous stratum predominates, with rare tree and shrub elements distributed in a
sparse way (Sano et al., 2019; IBGE, 2001).
The annual volume of rains varies from ≈800 mm to ≈2000 mm (Fig. 2B), the west areas are wetter (cerrado-amazonia) and the
dryest east areas (cerrado-caatinga). Annual average temperatures vary from 22 C◦ to 28C◦ (Fig. 2C). Observe that the heat is more
intense in the humidest and lowest regions (Fig. 2D), forming six climate units (Fig. 2E) with different precipitation cycles that range
from the superhumid (equatorial) to the semiarides (central tropical). The hydrographic regions (Fig. 2F) are areas bathed by the main
rivers of Matopiba: Araguaia, Tocantins, São Francisco, Parnaíba, Itapicuru, Mearim, Gurupi and Pindaré. The estimated long-term
average flow in the Atlantico Nordeste Ocidental region is in the order of 2515 m3/s, in Tocantins-Araguaia is 15,432 m3/s, in Par­
naíba is 763 m3/s and in São Francisco is 3037 m3/s (Reis et al., 2020).

2.2. Water footprint estimation

The estimate of the water footprint of soybean production followed the protocol proposed by Hoekstra et al. (2011). The division of
gross fresh water consumption by the soybean productivity of a geographical or administrative unit, in tons per hectare (ton/hc), is
represented by the Relative Water Footprint (RWF) in cubic meters per ton (m3/t). The latter represents the summation of up to three
components, normally identified by the colors green (GrWF, in m3/t), blue (BWF, in m3/t) and gray (GWF, in m3/t). The green and blue
components refer to the required and the virtual water consumption, while the gray component consists of an indicator of potential
pollution.
GrWF and BWF were estimated by the ratio between crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and yield (ỵ), considering the length of the
cultivar’s growth period (cgp), from the first day of planting (d = 1), the CROPWAT 8.0 program was used for the calculation (FAO,
2010).
To calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), based on the model proposed by Allen et al. (1998), whose variables altitude,
latitude, effective precipitation, air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed are employed in the modeling (Eq. (1)). All
variables needed for the model were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology from Brazil- INMET (https://portal.inmet.
gov.br/).
900
0, 408Δ(Rn − G) + γ T+273 *μ2(es − ea)
ETo = Eq. 1
Δ + γ (1 + 0, 34 u2)

where Rn = balance of radiation at the crop surface (MJ m-2 d-1); G - soil heat flux density (MJ m-2 d-1); T - air temperature at a height
of 2 m (◦ C); u2 - wind speed at 2 m height (m s-1); es - saturation vapor pressure (kPa); ea - partial vapor pressure (kPa); Δ - slope of the
saturation vapor pressure curve (kPa ◦ C-1), and γ - psychrometric coefficient (kPa ◦ C-1).
The ETc (Eq. (2)) of the green component is obtained through the product between the ETo and the cultivation coefficient (Kc). The
Kc values for soybean ranged from 0.22 for the initial stage to 1.5 for the intermediate, and 0.39 final stage (Allen et al., 1998).
ETc = ETo*Kc Eq. 2
The characteristics of the cultivar, the crop coefficient, the type of soil, the root depth of the crop and the agricultural calendar of
the GrWF (Eq. (3)) refers to the total evapotranspiration of rainwater from crops and the water incorporated in the products (WIP). If
the ETc is less than the effective precipitation (Pref), it is assumed that the ETc is equal to Pref for the calculation of the GrWF (Hoekstra
et al., 2011; Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2011), planting location were used for the calculation of ETc.
( )/
∑cgp
GrWF(m3 / t) = WIP + 10 ETc y· Eq. 3
d=1

where cgp = duration of cultivar cultivation period (days), d = planting day, ETc = crop evapotranspiration, ỵ = crop yield and WIP =
water incorporated into the product on harvest day.
BWF (Eq. (4)) measures the sum of evapotranspirated water, above effective precipitation, in irrigated crops. Thus, it is assumed
that, if the ETc is less than or equal to Pref, the BWF was zero. However, if ETc is greater than Pref, BWF will be considered to be
different from zero (García Morillo et al., 2015).
( )/
∑cgp
BWF(m3 / t) = WIP + 10 ETc − Pref y· Eq. 4
d=1

In addition to evapotranspiration, the main variable in the calculation of GrWF and BWF, data on average yield (ỵ) and total
production for each municipal harvest, were extracted from IBGE’s Automatic Data Recovery System (IBGE, 2017) and applied
Equations 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. GWF expresses water pollution in terms of the volume needed to dilute effluents to the point of making them
harmless to the health of the biota (Leng et al., 2015). In his estimation, the leaching fraction (LF) and the rate of application of the

4
J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

agrochemical (RAA), in Kg per hectare, to the natural concentration (m3/t) of the pollutant (Cnat) and the maximum allowed by
legislation (Cmax) are considered (Eq. (5) and Eq. (6)).
Considering that only the residual flow that flows into the bodies of water (Hoekstra et al., 2011) should be adopted to calculate the
GWF, so that it is not appropriate to add the GWF of each pollutant that affects the system, but only the one that is the most critical or
that consumes the largest volume of water after calculating the GWF. In this study, the WF of a herbicide (glyphosate) was calculated
because this pollutant is present in 100% of the crops in the region. Cmax followed the standard of CONAMA Resolution 357 (Brazil,
2005), Class 2 for fresh water, and Cnat was considered zero. The LF value of 0.001% was adopted, depending on the predominant type
of soil and slope of the land (Franke et al., 2013).
[( ∑ )( ∑ )]
i si wi
LF (%) = LFmin + ∑ i [LFmax − LFmin ] Eq. 5
i wi

( )/
LF*RAA
GWF(m3 / t) = y· Eq. 6
Cmax − Cnat

where LF = leaching fraction, LFmin = minimum leaching fraction, LFmax = maximum leaching fraction, RAA = glyphosate appli­
cation rate per hectare, Cmax = maximum allowable concentration, Cnat = natural concentration of the pollutant, Sί = leaching po­
tential score (Franke et al., 2013) and Wί = weight of scoring factor for leaching potential (Franke et al., 2013).
Equation (7) was used to calculate the Relative Water Footprint (RWF).

RWF(m3 / t) = GrWF + BWF + GWF Eq. 7

3
It is estimated that approximately 4% of annual rainfall is used for agricultural activities, that is, about 117,000 km per year. In
2007, Brazil spent 31,700 km3 only with irrigated agriculture (Schneider et al., 2014; Frenken and Gillet, 2012). Although it is not
common in WF studies, we opted in this study, for the adoption of the Absolute WF (AWF), in Km3 (Eq. (8)). The Km3 unit is used by
FAO to estimate the availability and hydraulic needs of plantations in each country (Frenken and Gillet, 2012). In addition, this unit of
measurement facilitates the visualization in the comparative graphs with other indicators (eg Municipal Development Index) and
offers a better idea of the impact of AWF on the available water resources.

AWF(km3 ) = RWF*Production (in ton) Eq. 8

2.3. Evaluation of the socioeconomic influence of soy production

The evaluation of socioeconomic development was carried out by comparing the Municipal Development Index (IFDM) and the
ratio between the Municipal Gross Domestic Product and the population (GDP per capita) in the producing (N = 163) and non-

Table 1
Relative weight of the sub-indices and indicators that make up the IFDM, by dimension of development and its
data sources.
IFDM dimensions and sub-indicators Relative weight

Employment and Income (Source: Ministry of Labor and Employment Relative weights)
Employment 50%
Growth rate formal employment in base year 10%
Growth rate formal employment in the last three years 10%
Formalization of the labor market. Location1 30%
Income 50% 50%
Growth rate average income in the base year 10%
Growth rate average income in the last three years 10%
Income Gini 15%
Salary mass 15%
Education (Source: Ministry of Education from Brazil)
Kindergarten 20%
% of children aged 0–5 years enrolled in daycare centers and preschools 20%
Elementary School 80%
Age-grade distortion rate 10%
% of teachers with higher education 15%
Average daily number of class hours 15%
School dropout rate 15% 15%
Basic Education Development Index (IDEB) 25%
Health (Source: Ministry of Health from Brazil)
% of pregnant women with more than 6 prenatal consultations 25%
Proportion of deaths from ill-defined causes 25%
Death rates of children under 5 years due to preventable causes 25%
Avoidable hospitalizations for primary care 25%
1
Relationship between the stock of workers with a formal contract and the working age population of the
municipality. Source: FIRJAN (2018).

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

producing soybean (N = 173) municipalities. Palmas, capital of the state of Tocantins, was excluded from the study because it is an
administrative city and the only state capital in the region. The great concentration of resources in this city makes it an economic
outlier of the region. In addition, the impact of agricultural production on the economy of Palmas is irrelevant.
Producing municipalities were grouped into categories relating to continuous production time: <10 years (N = 55), ≥10 years (N =
62), ≥20 years (N = 25) and ≥30 years (N = 21). Another category used for the analysis was the weight of agricultural GDP in the
municipality’s economy: <20% (N = 149) and ≥20% (N = 14).
Since economic growth is not synonymous with human development, GDP per capita is limited in addressing aspects associated to
the well-being of the population. The IFDM (Municipal Development Index of the Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de
Janeiro) was adopted (Table 1). This indicator is composed of three socioeconomic dimensions that annually assess, since 2005, the
development of each Brazilian municipality in the areas of Education, Health and Employment-Income (FIRJAM, 2018).
IFDM Education quantitatively and qualitatively evaluates the provision of public services for early childhood education and
elementary education, consisting of 6 indicators (Table 1). IFDM Health aims to assess the quality of primary health care, consisting of
4 indicators. The IFDM Employment-Income assesses, through conjunctural and structural indicators, the generation of formal
employment and the absorption capacity of local labor, as well as the generation and distribution of income in the labor market
(FIRJAM, 2018). The IFDM score ranges from 0 to 1, the better the closer to 1 in each dimension that summarizes the 17 indicators of
Education, Health and Employment and Income. Thus, IFDM General represents the average performance of three sub-indices that
have the following classification ranges: 0 ≤ IFDM <0.400 (low development), 0.400 ≤ IFDM <0.600 (regular development), 0.600 ≤I
FDM ≤0.800 (moderate development), IFDM >0.800 (high development).

2.4. Data collection and analysis

The IFDM for each municipality was obtained from the Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FIRJAM, 2018) and
the meteorological information to estimate the green and blue components of the WF were extracted from the data recording systems
of the stations of the National Institute of Meteorology - INMET (2019) and the National Institute of Space Research - INPE (2013).
As there is a spatial and temporal discontinuity of climatological data, the MIROC3 global circulation model, contained in the
EdGCM software, was validated and calibrated (R2 = 0.88) for the study area according to the trends of WorldClim version 1.4 (www.
worldclim.org). The estimates generated by the model were used to correct this problem.Further details on the validation and cali­
bration of the model for Matopiba can be obtained in the study of Santos et al. (2020) and Severo Santos and Naval (2020).
Information on the soils of the areas under study was acquired from the soil maps provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics - IBGE (2001), in resolution 1: 250,000. Information on the agricultural calendar and characteristics of soybean cultivars
in the region were acquired from Evangelista et al. (2017). The amount of agrochemicals, fertilizers and soil amendments were ob­
tained from the annual reports of IBAMA (2017) and the monthly report of apparent fertilizer consumption by the National Fertilizer
Diffusion Association (ANDA, 2017).
The data of total production in tons of grain and seed, productivity in tons per hectare and planted area each year were obtained
from the Municipal Agricultural Survey - PAM through the Automated Data Recovery System - IBGE’s-SIDRA. Information on the
location and size of irrigated crops was provided by the Coordination Groups for Agricultural Statistics - GCEAs of each state from the
records of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA, coordinated by IBGE, and by the records of the National Water
Agency (ANA, 2016).
Descriptive analyzes and the Shapiro-Wilk test were performed to verify the normality of the data distribution. The 2016 indicators,
when separated into categories, did not show a normal distribution and the Kruskal-Wallis test, followed by Dunn’s post hoc test with
Bonferrone correction, was used to verify which groups had significant differences between them. In cases where comparisons were
made between 2007 and 2016, the parametric distribution of the variables was identified, and the Student t-test was applied to detect
statistically significant differences.
Correlation analyzes used Pearson’s Coefficient (R) to estimate the coefficient of determination (R2) which is a measure of pro­
portion of the variability explained by the adjusted model. To verify the existence of significant dependence between the change in
development categories and the soybean production of the municipalities, the chi-square test was used in contingency tables to
generate the contingency coefficient (C).
All analyzes used annual data for the period from 2007 to 2016 according to the variable studied. These analyzes were performed
with the aid of Microsoft office Excel 365 programs version 1708, PAST - Paleontological Statistics Software Package (Hammer, 2018)

Table 2
Municipal AWF (Km3) of soybean production, from 2007 to 2016, according to the time of consolidation of this crop.
Production time ≥30 years ≥20 years ≥10 years <10 years

N 21 25 62 55
Yearly average 0,424A 0,108B 0,041C 0,022D
Mean Standard Deviation 0,496 0119 0,104 0034
Minimum average 0,185A 0,015B 0,005C 0,007C
Maximum average 1,886A 0,526B 0,819C 0,331D

Note: The superscript letters in the averages, in each row of the table, indicate which groups differ statistically, at the level of p < 0.05 (equal letters
indicate that there is no significant difference).

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

and Quantun GIS, version 2.14.

3. Results

Significant differences were found in the average AWF for soybean production time in the municipalities (Table 2). It was found
that the longer the soybean production consolidation time in the municipality, the higher the interannual AWF average. The same
behavior was verified with the maximum AWF and this is mainly due to the larger area occupied by soybeans in the municipalities with
the longest production time.
A continuous increase in planted area and great interannual variability in yield and production was observed (Fig. 3A), as well as in
the proportion of areas occupied by soy in relation to the total productive areas of these regions, and the proportion in relation to total
value of agricultural production (Fig. 3B). There was an increase of 106% in the average and 51% in the interannual maximum
(Fig. 3C), confirmed by a very strong trend (R = 0.97) of increase in AWF in the ten years analyzed (Fig. 3D). The AWF of municipalities
with 20 years or more of production continued to tend (R = 0.57) to a less intense increase during this period. The highest AWF value of
soybeans, in the period analyzed, was 2630 km3 and occurred in 2015, in the municipality of São Desidério - BA.
The average and maximum AWFs of the producing municipalities in the studied period presented coefficients of variation (CV) of
37% and 31% respectively. The average intermunicipal CV for the period analyzed was 94.4%, but its value has dropped continuously
over time. The 2007 intermunicipal CV presented a value of 98.1% and decreased to 88.5% in 2016.
Regarding the influence of soybean culture on socioeconomic indicators, it appears that no municipality located in the study area,
except the capital of Tocantins (Palmas), presented a high level of development according to the general IFDM and the employment
and income sub-indicator (Fig. 4A). The health sub-indicator was the one with the highest proportion of high development munici­
palities. On the other hand, in terms of employment and income, most municipalities have a regular and low development.
The general development of soy producing municipalities in 2016 was statistically superior to that of non-producers (Fig. 4B). The
economic growth of producing municipalities, measured by GDP per capita (Fig. 4C) corrected by the broad consumer price index -
IPCA and converted by the dollar rate of December 30, 2019, was the variable that most influenced the overall development (R2 =
0.73). Education and health indicators in producing municipalities were slightly higher (Fig. 4D). However, the employment and
income indicator was lower than that of non-producing municipalities.
The average GDP of the municipalities increased significantly according to the category of time of consolidation of the culture, from
the ten years of continuous production of soy (Table 3). However, the income and education distribution sub-indicators do not present
significant differences between producing and non-producing municipalities.
The health sub-indicator in municipalities with 30 or more years of continuous soy production is significantly lower than that of
municipalities in other categories. On the other hand, the general indicator of municipal development (IFDM General), showed
significantly better in municipalities with less than 10 years and more than 20 and 30 years of continuous soy production.
The analysis of indicators and sub-indicators, from the categories of proportion of soybean crop in the agricultural GDP of the

Fig. 3. Interannual behavior of the planted area and soybean production (A), the proportion of this area in relation to the agricultural total (B), the
average and maximum AWF of the producing municipalities (C) and the total AWF of the soybeans each year in the region (D).

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

Fig. 4. Development indicators for soy producing and non-producing municipalities in 2016, where (A) shows the proportion of municipalities in
each IFDM classification and its sub-indicators, (B), (C) and (D) compare the general IFDM, GDP per capita and development sub-indicators of
producing and non-producing municipalities, respectively. Significant differences at level of p ≤ 0.05(*) and p ≤ 0.01(**), according to the t-test. (1)
adjusted by the IPCA and converted into dollars at the price of December 30, 2019.

Table 3
Averages of socioeconomic indicators of municipalities in the interior of the states of study area, according to the time of continuous soybean
production, in 2016.
Production Time (years) ≥30 ≥20 ≥10 <10 NP1

N 21 25 62 55 173
GDP percapta 34.912A 23.832B 14.151C 10.749D 8659D
IFDM Income 0.391A 0.428A 0.409A 0.396A 0,419A
IFDM Education 0.664A 0.687A 0.665A 0.670A 0,653A
IFDM Health 0.630A 0.682B 0.684B 0.695B 0,667B
IFDM General 0.597A 0.606A 0.588A,B 0.598A 0,573B

Note: The superscript letters in the averages, in each row of the table, indicate which groups differ statistically, at the level of p < 0.05 (equal letters
indicate that there is no significant difference). 1Non-soy producing municipalities in Matopiba.

municipalities (Table 4) revealed that the GDP per capita and the education sub-indicator of the producing municipalities is signifi­
cantly higher than that of the non-producers, when the proportion of soy in municipal agricultural GDP is greater than or equal to 20%.
However, the employment and income sub-indicator did not differ between groups.
The general development indicator and the health sub-indicator of producing municipalities, whose weight of soy in GDP is greater
than or equal to 20%, did not show a superiority in relation to non-producing municipalities. However, the group with soybean weight

Table 4
Averages of socioeconomic indicators for all municipalities in the interior of the states of study area, according to the percentage of
soybean in total agricultural production in 2016.
% Prod. Agric. (N) ≥20% (149) <20% (14) NP(173)1

GDP percapta 17.108A 11.586B 8474B

IFDM Income 0,407A 0,400A 0,419A
IFDM Education 0,672A 0,651B 0,652B
IFDM Health 0,686A 0,653B 0,666A,B
IFDM General 0,599A 0,556B 0,572A,B

Note: The superscript letters in the averages, in each row of the table, indicate which groups differ statistically, at the level of p <
0.05 (equal letters indicate that there is no significant difference).1all municipalities of the study area, except the capital of Tocantins
(Palmas).

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

less than 20%, presented general and healthier IFDM lower than that of non-soy producing municipalities.
The relationship between AWF and IFDM of all soy producing municipalities belonging to groups with ten years or more of un­
interrupted production (N = 108) is shown in Fig. 5. Regression analysis (R) was applied and revealed that in 2007 (Fig. 5A) there was
no statistically significant association between these indicators. The same occurred in 2016 (Fig. 5B), revealing more evidence that the
increase in the development index of the municipalities is not related to the WFP of soy production.
The average annual geometric growth rate of the indicators for each municipality producing soybeans was calculated for the period
between 2007 and 2016 (Fig. 5C). It was found that in 5.5% of cases AWF 2016 was lower than AWF 2007 and in 19.4% of cases IFDM
2016 was lower than IFDM 2007. In these municipalities, the average reduction in AWF was 14% while that of IFDM was 0.5%.
Approximately 95% of the municipalities that suffered a reduction in the IFDM, presented an increase in AWF (Km3). Only one
municipality registered a decrease in both indicators, the increase being more common, although the intensity of the increase is higher
than that of the IFDM. The AWF of the producing municipalities grew, on average, 17 times more than their IFDM. While the average
growth of soybean AWF in producing municipalities was 22.9%, IFDM was 1.3% on average, for the same period.
Despite the low annual development rate of soybean-producing municipalities (Fig. 5C), in the total of municipalities in the region
(337 cities), the number of those classified as low-developed has reduced by forty-one to two, between 2005 and 2016. Of those
municipalities whose analysis was possible due to the availability of data, only two maintained a low level of development in the
period. The rest migrated from the low development category to regular development. Among regulars in 2005, 83 municipalities
migrated to the moderate category. Among moderates in 2005, only one migrated to high development in 2016 (Fig. 6A and Fig. 6B).
The spatial visualization of the municipalities that migrated to higher categories of development in the study period confirms the low
correlation (C = 0.15) between changing the category of IFDM and being or not producing soybeans.
About water consumption for soy production, Fig. 6C and D reveal a substantial increase between 2005 and 2016. The multipli­
cation of areas of high consumption (dark red) was intense and formed two clusters: one in the central region of Matopiba and another
in the extreme west of the state of Bahia. Despite the continuous increase in the area dedicated to soybeans among the producing
municipalities (Fig. 3A) and the tendency to increase AWF (Fig. 3D) related to this production, about 07% of these producing mu­
nicipalities managed to reduce or maintain water consumption associated with the increase in area. This occurred mainly in the state of
Tocantins, in areas close to large irrigated agriculture projects (Fig. 6C and D).

4. Discussion

The soy production chain proved to be solid and organized, promoting the generation of business from the phase prior to cultivation
(trade in agricultural inputs, financial institutions, insurance companies, service providers) until after the harvest (transporters,

Fig. 5. Regression between AWF and IFDM in 2007 (A) and 2016 (B), as well as the average geometric rate of annual growth - GGR of these
variables in the period from 2007 to 2016 (C) in the soy producing municipalities with at least 10 years of continuous production in the Matopiba.
*The numbers correspond to the name of the municipalities.

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

Fig. 6. Geographical distribution of the IFDM classification, in 2007 (A) and 2016 (B), and the AWF of the soy producing and non-producing
municipalities, in 2007 (C) and 2016 (D).

storage companies, processing and exporters). Being linked with the expansion of tangential sectors, such as energy and telecom­
munications, and other orbital productive chains, such as the chains of animal protein and other grains. This set of positive effects to
the interiorization of Brazilian development, reflected in the HDI (Human Development Indices) of the municipalities, is significantly
correlated with the expansion of the soy chain until the mid-1990s to 2010 (Araújo et al., 2019).
However, the present study shows the continuous growth of areas occupied by soy in the region denomined Matopiba (Fig. 3A).
This reflects the effects of the Brazilian developmental policy, which is mainly focused on the production of primary goods for export
(Lahsen et al., 2016). This “commoditization” generates environmental impacts by reaching territories that host different ecosystem
services, such as temperature and humidity regulation, and promotes local climate changes, risking the sustainability of soy production
and other crops developed in these areas, since their environmental impacts affect nearby watersheds (Strassburg et al., 2017; Ayala
et al., 2016; Porkka et al., 2016; Spera et al., 2016; Duić et al., 2015).
When soybean coverage exceeds 60% of agricultural areas, in high temperature environments (Fig. 2C), water stress conditions
(Fig. 2B, E and F) may increase and there may be a reduction in the water content in the soil, which results in lower productivity for all
agricultural crops and increases the risks to food security (Sayago et al., 2017). In these areas of recent soy expansion in the Cerrado,

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

the coverage of this crop has increased from 51% in 2005 to 62% in 2016 (Fig. 3B) and the trend (R2 = 0.95) is that it will exceed 65%
from 2021 (Fig. 3D). Despite having great spatial-temporal variability, the AWF of soybeans in the studied areas (Fig. 3C), this tends to
increase as the temperature rises (Spera et al., 2016; IPCC, 2014), due to the greater need irrigation (ANA, 2016) and use of agro­
chemicals (Aldaya et al., 2010).
This study demonstrated that the soy producing municipalities have higher GDP per capita (Fig. 4C), but this is not reflected in the
generation of employment and income (Fig. 4D), regardless of the weight of the crop in the municipality’s agricultural production or
the time of consolidation (Tables 3 and 4). For each unit of advancement in the general development of the municipality, there was 17
times more water expenditure with soybean cultivation (Fig. 5C), which imposes clear limits on environmental (Spera et al., 2016) and
social sustainability, since in water scarcity scenarios, the most deprived municipalities and the most vulnerable populations are most
severely affected (Porkka et al., 2016; Duić et al., 2015; Hsiang and Burke, 2014).
The high productivity of soy in Brazil is dependent on the intensive consumption of pesticides and corresponds to approximately
52% of the total consumption of this input (Weinhold et al., 2013). In the extensive areas of monocultures, due to the high use of
pesticides, the population is at risk of contamination, as remnants of the residues of these inputs are present in hydrographic and
aquifer basins (Severo Santos and Naval, 2020; Pellicer-Martínez and Martínez-Paz, 2016).
In this context, it is noteworthy that the health sub-indicator of municipalities with consolidated soy production for 30 years or
more was significantly lower than that of non-producers despite the general IFDM being higher (Table 3). Furthermore, there are no
differences between the two groups of municipalities in time categories of less than 30 years. This can be explained by the fact that the
health IFDM is limited in time (started in 2005), while changes affecting the population’s health are cumulative and have a long-term
impact, such as the contaminating effects of glyphosate on air and air. water that appears after decades of exposure (Mekonnen et al.,
2015).
The evolution of development in terms of categorical mobility between 2007 and 2016 was great (Fig. 6A and B) due to the ed­
ucation and health sub-indicators. This is compatible with the findings of Costa and Gartner (2017), that the states with the highest
volume of spending on primary care, hospital care, prophylactic and outpatient support, in addition to early childhood education, have
managed to reduce inequalities and improve the general development index. However, all analyzes showed reduced mobility and
growth results in the employment and income sub-indicator (Fig. 3A and D).
Depending on the type of cluster and the productive model in which the municipality is inserted, income inequality negatively
affects the quality of education, delaying the results of government investments in this area (Gramani, 2017). In the case of agri­
business developed in Matopiba, exports are the main source of economic growth (Fig. 3C) (Carmo et al., 2017). The development and,
consequently, the reduction of income inequalities depend on adding value to products. This is the result of agro-industrial processes,
which are still scarce in the region.
In view of this, the federal government instituted compensatory measures: it increased the Municipality Participation Fund (FPM)
and instituted the Financial Aid for Export Promotion (AFFEx). But, the compensation mechanisms proved to be insufficient to balance
municipal losses in the collection of Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS in Portuguese) for soy production (Oliveira Junior
et al., 2018). Thus, the municipalities suffer the environmental impacts of this production (Fig. 6D) without having the necessary
economic reparation to invest in public health, education and environment policies (Fig. 6B).
It is worth clarifying that investments in education and health in Brazil are, for the most part, financed by the federal government
and executed by state and municipal governments, which explains the improvement of these sub-indicators, even with the dis­
proportionality between job creation and growth of agribusiness production (Falkenberg et al., 2014).
Inter-municipal inequalities are reflected in the adoption of a technological package and tax incentives for the exploration and use
of land, which associated with the weaknesses of environmental legislation, favor this chemical-dependent model, which is incon­
gruous with sustainable development.
Overcoming this model is relatively difficult without adequate public policies (Lopes et al., 2021; Gonzaga et al., 2019). The
generation of direct and indirect employment in the municipalities related to soy production is lower than that of other economic
activities (Buainain et al., 2017). Wage inequalities are accentuated because it is an activity that has a relatively modern technological
package and does not require unskilled labor (Lovarelli et al., 2020; Gonzaga et al., 2019; Khojely et al., 2018).
It appears that as the economy of the municipalities grows, the process of social exclusion is accentuated, although improvements
are observed in the sub-indices of employment and income, education and health (Lopes et al., 2021). Data from the 2017 Agricultural
Census (IBGE, 2019) reveal that in the region that makes up the territorial delimitation adopted in this study, the agribusiness related
to the soy complex is poorly diversified and has oligopoly characteristics. Thus, the few soy producers have a reduced capacity to boost
other sectors of the regional economy. Consequently, the movements of productive diversification are compromised and the speed of
development is slow while the environmental degradation is rapid and unscrupulous.

5. Conclusion

Despite the limitations of the IFDM, which only considers administrative records of public management to assess municipal eco­
nomic development, its use has the advantage of reducing the time spacing between measures. Thus, this indicator presents itself as a
relevant alternative for the implementation of the formative character of the evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the
success or failure, of a development strategy for a region or municipality.
Soy occupies a great territorial extension due to its success in terms of wealth generation in the areas of recent agricultural
expansion (from the 2000s) in the Cerrado of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. However, the economic growth provided by its
production model has not significantly boosted regional development, imposes environmental risks and does not generate networks of

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J.F. Severo dos Santos and L.P. Naval Environmental Development 42 (2022) 100670

local cooperation that promote increased employment and income for local actors, being characterized as a development model
exogenous.
The direct association between soy production and municipal development does not exist due to the small evolution in the levels of
supply and quality of basic education and health in the set of producing municipalities. Soybean-producing municipalities have an
increasing consumption of water due to the consolidation time and the size of the areas destined for cultivation. This reflects the
behavior of AWF between 2007 and 2016, which presented average annual geometric growth rates much higher than those of IFDM in
most producing municipalities.
The development model adopted in Matopiba needs to be rethought in order to curb the uncontrolled advance of soy areas over
native vegetation and, mainly, to seek more inclusive and beneficial alternatives for producing municipalities. In this sense, the Low
Carbon Emission Agriculture (ABC, in Portuguese) program, in Brazil, presents as a viable alternative to associate the increase in land
productivity with endogenous development. The ABC plan shows that it is possible to reduce the conflict between soy plantations,
preservation of the Cerrado and socioeconomic development if the productive diversity associated with the value chain is properly
implemented.

Author statement

All persons who meet authorship criteria are listed as authors, and all authors certify that they have participated sufficiently in the
work to take public responsibility for the content, including participation in the concept, design, analysis, writing, or revision of the
manuscript. Furthermore, each author certifies that this material or similar material has not been and will not be submitted to or
published in any other publication before its appearance in the Environmental Development.

Authorship contributions

João Francisco Severo dos Santos: acquisition of data: analysis and/or interpretation of data and drafting the manuscript; Liliana
Pena Naval: analysis and/or interpretation of data and revising the manuscript critically for important intellectual contente.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by CAPES – Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamente de Pessoal de Nível Superior/Brasil (Coordination of the
Improvement of Higher-Level Personnel/Brazil), Process nº PAEP/2017.

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