Chapter 3 – SPECIAL

Probability distribution
 Recap 1
The error involved in making a certain measurement is a
continuous random variable X with PDF

1. Sketch the graph of f(x).

2. Compute P(X>0). (0.5)
3. Compute P(-1<X<1). (0.6875)
4. Compute P(X<-0.5 or X>0.5). (0.6328)
Learning Outcome
Common Probability distributions
In Chap 2

Probability Probability
distribution for distribution for
discrete random continuous random
variables √ variables
√
SPECIAL Probability distributions
In Chap 3

Binomial Poisson Normal

probability probability probability
distribution distribution distribution
Learning Outcome
Binomial Probability Distribution
1. Understand the requirement for binomial
probability distribution.
2. Use binomial probability function to find the
probability of a discrete random variables event.
3. Use tables of binomial probabilities to find the
probability of a discrete random variables event.
4. Compute the expected mean, variance and
standard deviation of a binomial distribution.
Part A
Binomial Probability
Distribution
(bring Table A.1 to class)

10
 Binomial Distribution
Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment

1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n

identical trials.

2. Two outcomes, success (S) and failure (F), are

possible on each trial.

3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does

not change from trial to trial.
stationarity
4. The trials are independent. Thus, there is no assumption
interference between trial
 Binomial Distribution

For example, in a coin tossing

game, the same coin is tossed
successively and independently n
times. We arbitrarily use S to
denote the outcome H (heads) and
F to denote the outcome T (tails).
Then this experiment satisfies
Conditions 1–4.

→ Hence this game is call binomial

distribution
 Binomial Distribution

Our interest is in the number of successes

occurring in the n trials.

We let x denote the number of successes

occurring in the n trials.
 Binomial Distribution

Binomial Probability Function

𝒏!
𝒇(𝒙) = 𝒑𝒙 (𝟏 − 𝒑)(𝒏−𝒙)
𝒙! (𝒏 − 𝒙)!

where:
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one trial
 Binomial Distribution

Binomial Probability Function

𝒏!
𝒇(𝒙) = 𝒑𝒙 (𝟏 − 𝒑)(𝒏−𝒙)
𝒙! (𝒏 − 𝒙)!

𝑛!
𝑥! (𝑛 − 𝑥)! 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)(𝑛−𝑥)

Probability of a particular
Number of experimental
sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly
with x successes in n trials
x successes in n trials
 Binomial Distribution

Example: Evans Electronics

Evans is concerned about a low retention rate for
employees. In recent years, management has seen a
turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually.
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability of 0.1 that the
person will not be with the company next year.
 Binomial Distribution

Using the Binomial Probability Function

Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is
the probability that 1 of them will leave the company
this year?

Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
n!
f ( x) = p x (1 − p ) (n − x )
x !( n − x )!
3!
𝑓(1) = (0.1)1 (0.9)2 = 3(.1)(.81) = .243
1! (3 − 1)!
 Binomial Distribution

Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities

p
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
 Binomial Distribution

Expected Value

E(x) =  = np

Variance
Var(x) =  2 = np(1 − p)

Standard Deviation
𝜎= 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
 Binomial Distribution

Expected Value

E(x) =  = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3

Variance

Var(x) =  2 = 3(.1)(.9) = .27

Standard Deviation

𝝈= 𝟑(. 𝟏)(. 𝟗) = . 𝟓𝟐 employees

 Binomial Distribution

Another way of writing binomial distribution

X ~ Bin(n, p)

Hence, a case with X ~ Bin (15, 0.3)

meaning that there are 15 trial with 30
% of successful rate.
 Binomial Distribution

More example 1:

Find:
1. The probability that exactly 3 get cola S
2. The probability that at least 3 get cola S
3. The probability that at most 1 get cola S
 Binomial Distribution

Solution
1. The probability that exactly 3 get cola S

2. The probability that at least 3 get cola S

3. The probability that at most 1 get cola S

 Binomial Distribution

More example 2:

Find:
1. The probability that at most 8 fail the test
2. The probability that exactly 8 fail
3. The probability that at least 8 fail
4. The probability that between 4 and 7, inclusive, fail
5. How about The probability that between 4 and 7, exclusive, fail ???
 Binomial Distribution

Solution

Appendix A.1
Try verify the answer with formula method
 Binomial Distribution

Solution

Appendix A.1
Try verify the answer with formula method
 Binomial Distribution

Solution

Appendix A.1
Try verify the answer with formula method
 Binomial Distribution

Solution

Appendix A.1
Try verify the answer with formula method
 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 2

Answer
a) 0.2786
b) 0.2786
c) 0.7451
d) 0.7748
 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 2

40% of the trees planted during a tree planting

campaign can grow. If a sample of 6 trees is
chosen at random, calculate the probability
that at least one tree cannot grow.

Answer: 0.9959
 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 2

4% of the fluorescent lamps produced by a

factory are defective. From a sample of 100
lamps chosen at random, calculate
(a) Mean
(b) Standard Deviation
of the number of lamps that are defective

Answer: (a) 4, (b) 1.9596

 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 2-3

X is a discrete random variable that follows a

binomial distribution. If the mean and
standard deviation of X are 30 and 2√5
respectively, find the probability of success.

Answer: 1/3
 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 3
Twenty percent of all telephones of a certain
type are submitted for service while under
warranty. Of these, 60% can be repaired,
whereas other 40% must be replaced with new
units. If a company purchases ten of these
telephones, what is the probability that
exactly two will end up being replaced under
warranty.

Answer: 0.1478
 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 3
A fair dice has 1 red face, 2 yellow faces and 3
green faces. X is a discrete random variable
which represents the number of times of
obtaining the green face if the dice is thrown
20 times. Calculate
a) The mean of X
b) The standard deviation of X

Answer: a) 10, b) 2.2361

 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~ Level 3-4

It is known that k% of the pens produced by a

company are defective. In a sample of 100
pens chosen at random, the variance of the
number of pens that are defective is 1.96. Find
the value of k. Which value you think is valid?

Answer: 2%
 Binomial Distribution

~ Exercises ~Level 3-4

Answer
a) 0.6
b) N=4
 Common Probability distributions
In Chap 2

Probability Probability
distribution for distribution for
discrete random continuous random
variables √ variables
√
SPECIAL Probability distributions
In Chap 3

Binomial Poisson Normal

probability probability probability
distribution distribution distribution

√ 37
END of Chapter 3A