PHR454 Biostatistics and Calculus

Probability Distribution II

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

&
THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION
 Chapter Preview
• Binomial Probability Distribution
• Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
for the Binomial Distribution
• The Poisson Distribution
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Allow us to deal with circumstances in
which the outcome is dichotomous or
belong to two relevant categories with
possible outcomes as success or failure.
• The problem has the required key element
of “twoness”.
e.g.- boy/girl
- acceptable/defective
- yes/no
Binomial Probability Distribution
Definition
• A binomial probability distribution results
from a procedure that meets all the
following requirements:
1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials.
2. The trials must be independent. (The
outcome of any individual trial doesn’t affect
the probabilities in the other trials.)
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified
into two categories.
4. The probabilities must remain constant for
each trial.
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Notation
– S and F (success and failure) denote two
possible categories of all outcomes; p and q
will denote the probabilities of S and F
respectively,
P( S )  p (p  probability of success)
P( F )  1  p  q (q  probability of failure)
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Notation
n denotes the fixed number of trials.
x denotes a specific number of successes in n trials,
x can be a whole number between 0 and n.
p denotes the probability of success in one of the n trials.
q denotes the probability of failure in one of the n trials.
P( x) denotes the probability of getting exactly x successes
among the n trials.
Binomial Probability Distribution

P(x) = n! . px . qn-x for x =0,1,2, …., n

(n-x)!x!

where n  number of trials

x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q= 1-p)
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Example – Analysis of Multiple-Choice Answers
A professor of anatomy and physiology plans to give a
surprise quiz consisting 4 multiple-choice questions,
each with 5 possible answers (a, b, c, d, e), one of which
is correct. Let’s assume that an unprepared student
makes random guesses and we want to find the
probability of exactly 3 correct responses to the 4
questions.
a) Does this procedure result in a binomial distribution?
b) If this procedure does result in a binomial distribution,
identify the values of n, x, p and q.
Binomial Probability Distribution
a) This procedure does satisfy the requirements for
binomial distribution, as shown below.
1) The number of trials (4) is fixed.
2) The 4 trials are independent because a correct or wrong
response for any individual question does not affect the
probability of being correct or wrong on another question.
3) Each of the 4 trials has two categories of outcomes: the
response is either correct or wrong.
4) For each response, there are 5 possible answers (a, b, c, d,
e), one of which is correct, so the probability of a correct
response is 1/5 or 0.2. That probability remains constant for
each of the 4 trials.
Binomial Probability Distribution
b) Having concluded that the given procedure does result in
a binomial distribution, we now proceed to identify the
values of n, x, p, and q.
1) With 4 test questions, we have n = 4.
2) We want the probability of exactly 3 correct responses, so x =
3.
3) The probability of success (correct response) for one question
is 0.2, so p = 0.2.
4) The probability of failure (wrong response) is 1-p = 0.8, so q is
0.8
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Using the Binomial Probability Formula

P(x) = n! . px . qn-x for x =0,1,2, …., n

(n-x)!x!

where n  number of trials

x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q= 1-p)
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Example – Analysis of Multiple-Choice Answers
Use the binomial probability formula to find the probability
of getting exactly 3 correct answers when random
guesses are made for 4 multiple choice questions. That
is, find P(3) given that n=4, x=3, p=0.2 and q =0.8.
Solution
• Using the given values, we get
4!
P( x)  g0.23 g0.843
(4  3)!3!
4!
 g0.008 g0.8
1!3!
 (4)(0.008)(0.8)  0.0256
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Solution cont…
• The probability of getting exactly 3 correct answers out of
4 is 0.0256.
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Using Table of Binomial Distributions
– In some cases, binomial probabilities can be easily
found by simply referring to Table of Binomial
Distributions.
– First locate n and the corresponding value of x that
is desired. At this stage, one row numbers should be
isolated. Align that row with the proper probability of
p by using the column across the top. The isolated
number represents the desired probability.
Binomial Probability Distribution
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Example
Use the portion of Table of Binomial Probability
Distribution (for n = 4 and p = 0.2) shown in the margin to
find the following.
a) The probability of exactly 3 successes
b) The probability of at least 3 successes
Binomial Probability Distribution
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Solution
a) The probability of x = 3 is given by P(3) = 0.0256, which
is the same value computed with the binomial probability
formula in the preceding example.
b) “At least” 3 successes means that the number of
successes is 3 or 4.
P (at least 3)  P(3 or 4)
 P (3)  P(4)
 0.0256  0.0016
 0.0272
 Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation for the Binomial
Distribution
• Simplified formula for binomial distribution
• Mean -   np

• Variance -  2  npq

• Standard deviation -   npq

 The Poisson Distribution
• Used for describing behavior of rare
events such as
1) radioactive decay,
2) arrivals of people in a line,
3) eagles nesting in a region,
4) patients arriving at an emergency room,
and
5) Internet users logging onto a Web site.
 The Poisson Distribution
• Definition
– A discrete probability distribution that applies
to occurrences of some events over a
specified interval.
– The random variable x is the number of
occurrences of the event in an interval.
– Interval can be time, distance, area, volume,
or some similar unit.
 The Poisson Distribution
• Using the Poisson Distribution Formula

 x . e 
P (x) = where e  2.71828
x!
where           mean of distribution
x  number of occurrences of an event
 The Poisson Distribution
• The Poisson distribution has these
parameters:
1. The mean is 
2. The standard deviation is   
 The Poisson Distribution
• The Poisson distribution has the following
requirements:
1. The random variable x is the number of
occurrences of an event over some interval.
2. The occurrences must be random.
3. The occurrences must be independent of
each other.
4. The occurrences must be uniformly
distributed over the interval being used.
 Binomial vs. Poisson
• A Poisson distribution differs from a binomial
distribution in these fundamental ways:
1. Binomial distribution is affected by the
sample size n and the probability p,
whereas the Poisson distribution is
affected only by the mean
2. In a binomial distribution, the possible
values of the random variable x are 0, 1,…,
n, but a Poisson has possible x values of 0,
1, 2,…, with no upper limit.
 The Poisson Distribution
• Example – World War II Bombs
In analyzing hits by V-1 buzz bombs in World War II,
South London was subdivided into 576 regions, each
with an area of 0.25 km2. A total of 535 bombs hit the
combined area of 576 regions.
a) If a region is randomly selected, find the probability that it
was hit exactly twice.
b) Based on the probability found in part (a), how many of
the 576 regions are expected to be hit exactly twice?
 The Poisson Distribution
• Solution
a) The Poisson distribution applies because we are dealing
with the occurrences of an event (bomb hits) over some
interval (a region with area of 0.25km 2). The mean
number of hits per region is

number of bomb hits 535

   0.929
number of regions 576
 The Poisson Distribution
• Because we want the probability of exactly two hits in a
region, we let x=2 and use Poisson Distribution Formula
as follows:

P(x) = µx . e-µ = 0.9292 . 2.71828-0.929 = 0.863 . 0.395 = 0.170

x! 2! 2!

• The probability of a particular region being hit exactly

twice is P(2) = 0.170
 The Poisson Distribution
• Solution cont..
b) Because there is a probability of 0.170 that a region is
hit exactly twice, we expect that among the 576
regions, the number that are hit exactly twice is
.
576 0.170 = 97.9
 The Poisson Distribution
• V-1 Buzz Bomb Hits for 576 Regions in South London

Expected
Number of Actual Number
Probability Number of
Bomb Hits of Regions
Regions

0 0.395 227.5 229

1 0.367 211.4 211

2 0.170 97.9 93

3 0.053 30.5 35

4 0.012 6.9 7

5 0.002 1.2 1
 The Poisson Distribution
• Stop at x=5 because no region was hit more than five
times, and the probabilities for x>5 are 0.000 when
rounded to three decimal places in Poisson
distribution.
• There is very good agreement between the
frequencies predicted with the Poisson distribution as
compared to the actual frequencies.
• The Poisson distribution does a good job of predicting
the results that actually occurred.
 Questions
1. A binomial experiment is conducted with
n=13 and p=.35. Find the probability that
the number of successes is exactly 5.

P(x) = n! . px . qn-x
(n-x)!x!

n= 13; p=0.35; q= 1-0.35= 0.64

P(5) = (13)! . (0.35) 5 . (0.65)13-5

(13-5)!(5)!
= 0.2154
2. According to a survey, 37.5 percent of
a college student use a personal
computer. If 20 students are selected
randomly, what’s the expected number
who use a computer? What’s the
variance and standard deviation for this
distribution?
Expected value is E(x)= np
=(20)(.375)
=7.5 students
Variance
  npq
2

= (20)(0.375)(.625)= 4.6875
Standard deviation   npq

= 2.165 students
Question 3

An experiment consists of flipping a fair coin 8 times and

counting the number of tails.
Find the probability of seeing exactly 3 tails.
Answer

3. An experiment consists of flipping a fair coin 8 times and counting the number
of tails. Find the probability of seeing exactly 3 tails.

A) The number of trials (8) is fixed , with 8 times of flipping, we have n = 8

B) The 8 trials are independent because head or tail response for any flip of the coin
does not effect the probability of head or tail on another flip of the coin, we want
probability of exactly 3 tails, so x = 3
C) Each of the 8 trials has 2 categories of outcome: either head or tail, so success
for one flip, p = 0.5, so q = 1-0.5 = 0.5

Using the Binomial Probability formula :

P(x) = n! . px . qn-x
(n-x)!x!
Solution 3 cont…

P(x) = n! . px . qn-x
(n-x)!x!

= 8! . 0.53 . 0.58-3
(8-3)!3!
= 8! . 0.125 . 0.03125
5!3!

= (56)(0.125)(0.03125)

= 0.21875
The probability of seeing exactly three tails out of 8 is 0.21875
Question 4
A multiple choice test contains 20
questions. Each question has five choices
for the correct answer. Only one of the
choices is correct. What is the probability
of making an 80 with random guessing?
 Answer

4. A multiple choice test contains 20 questions. Each question has five

choices for the correct answer. Only one of the choices is correct.
What is the probability of making an 80 with random guessing?
a) The number of trials (20) is fixed , with 20 test questions, we have n = 20
b) The 20 questions are independent because correct or wrong response for

any individual question does not affect the probability of being correct or

wrong on another question , so x = 16

c) Each of the 20 questions has 2 categories of outcome: either correct or
wrong, so p = 1/5 = 0.2 and q = 1-0.2 = 0.8
P(x) = n!
Using the Binomial Probability formula : . p x
. q n-x

(n-x)!x!
= 20! . 0.216 . 0.820-16
(20-16)!16!

= 1.3 X 10-8
The probability of making an 80 with random out of 20 questions is 1.3 X 10-8
Question 5

An experiment consists of flipping a fair

coin 8 times and counting the number of
tails. Find the probability of seeing exactly
6 or 7 tails.
 Answer

5. An experiment consists of flipping a fair coin 8 times and counting

the number of tails. Find the probability of seeing exactly 6 or 7 tails.

Using the Binomial Probability formula

P(x) = n! . px . qn-x P(x) = n! . px . qn-x

(n-x)!x! (n-x)!x!

= 8! . 0.56 . 0.58-6 = 8! . 0.57 . 0.58-7

(8-6)!6! (8-7)!7!

= 8! . 0.015625 . 0.25 = 8! . 0.0078125 . 0.5

2!6! 1!7!

= (28)(0.015625)(0.25) = (8)(0.0078125)(0.5)

= 0.109375 = 0.03125

These are mutually exclusive events and thus,

P (x=6 or x=7) = P (x=6) + P (x=7) = 0.109375 + 0.03125 = 0.140625
Question 6

• Radioactive atoms are unstable because they

have too much energy. When they release
their extra energy, they are said to decay.
When studying cesium 137, it is found that
during the course of decay over 365 days,
1,000,000 radioactive atoms are reduced to
977,287 radioactive atoms. Find the mean
number of radioactive atoms lost through
decay in a day. Find the probability that on a
given day, 50 radioactive atoms decay
Answer

6. Radioactive atoms are unstable because they have too much energy.
When they release their extra energy, they are said to decay. When
studying cesium 137, it is found that during the course of decay over
365 days, 1,000,000 radioactive atoms are reduced to 977,287 radioactive
atoms.

a) Find the mean number of radioactive atoms lost through decay

in a day
b) Find the probability that on a given day, 50 radioactive atoms decay

a) µ = 1,000,000-977,287 = 62.2
365

b) µ = 62.2, x = 50

Using Poisson Distribution Formula

P(x) = µx . e-µ = (62.2)50 . (2.71828)-62.2

x! 50!

= 0.0156
Question 7

Coliform bacteria are randomly

distributed in a certain Arizona river at
an average concentration of 1 per 20cc
of water. If we draw from the river a test
tube containing 10cc of water, what is
the chance that the sample contains
exactly 2 coliform bacteria?
Answer
7. Coliform bacteria are randomly distributed in a certain Arizona river at
an average concentration of 1 per 20cc of water.
If we draw from the river a test tube containing 10cc of water,
what is the chance that the sample contains exactly 2 coliform bacteria?

20cc - 1 (average concentration)

10 cc - 1/20 X10 = 0.5

Using Poisson Distribution Formula

µ = 0.5, x = 2

P(x) = µx . e-µ = (0.5)2 . (2.71828) -0.5

x! 2!

= 0.0758
Question 8

A company reports that their computer is

“down” an average of 1.2 times during an
8-hour shift. What’s the probability that the
computer will be ‘down’ 3 times during an
8-hour shift?
 Answer
• µ = 1.2, x = 3

• Using Poisson Distribution Formula

P(x) = µx . e-µ = (1.2)3 . (2.71828)-1.2

x! 3!

= 0.0867
 Question 9

• The I.C.T Telemarketing group reports that

the average employee makes 5 sales in
an hour. Assuming a Poisson distribution
applies, find the probability that an
employee makes four sales an hour.
• µ = 5, x = 4

• Using Poisson Distribution Formula

• P(x) = µx . e-µ = (5)4 . (2.71828)-5

x! 4!

= 0.1755