Probability Distributions

Continuous vs Discrete Variable

If a variable can take on any value
between two specified values, it is called
a continuous variable; otherwise, it is
called a discrete variable.

Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal probability distribution

Student's t distribution
Chi-square distribution
F distribution
Discrete vs Continuous Distribution

In case of a Continuous Distribution:

The probability of a specific value is zero?

You should be looking for the probability of

a range in case of Continuous Distribution.

Normal Probability Distribution

Uniformly distributed

Long Tails / Bell Shaped

Mean/ Mode and Median are same

Normal Probability Distribution

Two factors define the shape of the curve:

- Mean
- Standard Deviation

Normal Probability Distribution

About 68% of the area under the curve falls
within 1 standard deviation of the mean.

About 95% of the area under the curve falls

within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

About 99.7% of the area under the curve

falls within 3 standard deviations of the
mean.
Normal Probability Distribution
The total area under the normal curve = 1.
The probability of any particular value is 0.
The probability that X is greater than or less
than a value = area under the normal curve
in that direction.

Normal Probability Distribution

The total area under the normal curve = 1.
The probability of any particular value is 0.
The probability that X is greater than or less
than a value = area under the normal curve
in that direction.
Normal Probability Distribution
The value of the random variable Y is:

Y = { 1/[ σ * sqrt(2π) ] } * e -(x - μ)2/2σ2

where X is a normal random variable,

μ = mean,
σ = standard deviation,
π is approximately 3.14159,
e is approximately 2.71828.

Normal Probability Distribution

Z Value / Standard Score

How many standard deviations an element

is from the mean.
z = (X - μ) / σ

z is the z-score,
X is the value of the element,
μ is the population mean,
σ is the standard deviation.
Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial probability distribution
Poisson probability distribution

Hypergeometric probability distribution

Multinomial probability distribution
Negative binomial distribution

Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal probability distribution
Student's t distribution
Chi-square distribution
F distribution
 Discrete Probability Distributions
Number of
Probability
heads
0 0.25
1 0.50
2 0.25

Binomial Distribution
A binomial experiment (also known as a
Bernoulli trial) has the following properties:
• The experiment consists of n repeated
trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible
outcomes. We call one of these outcomes a
success and the other, a failure.
• The probability of success, denoted by P,
is the same on every trial.
• The trials are independent; that is, the
outcome on one trial does not affect the
outcome on other trials.
Binomial Distribution
x: The number of successes that result from the
binomial experiment.
n: The number of trials in the binomial experiment.
P: The probability of success on an individual trial.
Q: The probability of failure on an individual trial.
(This is equal to 1 - P.)
n!: The factorial of n (also known as n factorial).
b(x; n, P): Binomial probability - the probability that
an n-trial binomial experiment results in exactly x
successes, when the probability of success on an
individual trial is P.
nCr: The number of combinations of n things, taken
r at a time.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial probability refers to the
probability that a binomial experiment
results in exactly x successes.
Suppose a binomial experiment consists of n
trials and results in x successes. If the
probability of success on an individual trial is
P, then the binomial probability is:
b(x; n, P) = nCx * Px * (1 - P)n - x
or
b(x; n, P) = { n! / [ x! (n - x)! ] } * Px * (1 - P)n - x
Binomial Distribution Properties
The mean of the distribution (μx) is
n*P

The variance (σ2x) is

n*P*(1-P)

The standard deviation (σx) is

sqrt[ n * P * ( 1 - P ) ]

Poisson Distribution
A Poisson experiment has the following
properties:
The experiment results in outcomes that
can be classified as successes or failures.
The average number of successes (μ) that
occurs in a specified region is known.
Outcomes are random. Occurrence of one
outcome does not influence the chance of
another outcome of interest.
The outcomes of interest are rare relative
to the possible outcomes.
Poisson Distribution
e: A constant equal to approximately
2.71828. (Actually, e is the base of the
natural logarithm system)
μ: The mean number of successes that
occur in a specified region.
x: The actual number of successes that
occur in a specified region.
P(x; μ): The Poisson probability that exactly
x successes occur in a Poisson experiment,
when the mean number of successes is μ.

Poisson Distribution
Poisson Formula. Suppose we conduct a
Poisson experiment, in which the average
number of successes within a given region
is μ. Then, the Poisson probability is:

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

where x is the actual number of successes

that result from the experiment, and e is
approximately equal to 2.71828.
Poisson Distribution Properties
The Poisson distribution has the following
properties:
The mean of the distribution is equal to μ .
The variance is also equal to μ .

Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal probability distribution
Student's t distribution
Chi-square distribution
F distribution
Process Capability
Ratio of the spread between the process
specifications to the spread of the process
values, (6 process standard deviations) .

Process Capability
Conditions to be met:

• Sample to represent the population

•Normal distribution of data
• The process must be in statistical control
• Sample size must be sufficient
Process Capability
LSL
USL
LCL
UCL

Cp
Cpk

Process Capability
LSL
USL
LCL
UCL

Cp
Cpk
Process Capability
Why to do Process Capability study?

- Understand the behaviors of

new/repaired/ adjusted equipment
- Review of tolerances
- Allocation of equipment

Process Capability
USL−LSL 6σ 8σ 10σ 12σ
Process Capability vs Rejections Cp 1.00 1.33 1.66 2.00
Rejects 0.27 % 64 ppm 0.6 ppm 2 ppb
 Cp vs Cpk

Pp and Ppk
Ppk is an index similar to Cpk but considers
more sources of variation in the process
over a longer period of time.
Cpk and Ppk
Cp and Cpk is based off the sample of data
you have collected.

Pp and Ppk uses the actual standard

deviation as this is data from a population.

Cpk is Short-Term
Ppk is Long-Term

Six Sigma - 1.5 Sigma Shift