Probability

 Probability is simply how likely something is to happen.

 The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics.

 Intuition – the cognitive phenomenon where organisms use data to make generalizations
and predictions about the world.
 Relative Frequency
 Law of large numbers – in the long run, as the sample size increases and increases,
the relative frequencies of outcomes get closer and closer to the theoretical (or
actual) probability value.
 Equally likely outcomes – probability of an event = (number of outcomes over the total
number of outcomes)

 SAMPLE SPACES
Sample spaces are simply sets whose elements describe all the possible outcomes
of the random experiment in which we are interested in. The sample space is denoted as S.
 Professor Gomez is making up a final exam for a course in literature of the Southwest.
He wants the last three questions to be of the true or false type. In order to guarantee
that the answers do not follow his favorite pattern, he list all possible true-false
combinations for three questions on a paper then picks one at random from a hat.
a) What is the probability that all three items will be false?
b) What is the probability that exactly two items will be true?

TTT FFF

TTF FFT P(3F) = 1/8

P(2T) = 3/8
TFF FTF

FTT TFF

An event, E, is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment.

Complement of an event
 The sum of all the probabilities assigned to outcomes in a sample must be 1.
 p+q=1 since the sum of probabilities of the outcomes must be equal to 1.
 q=1-p where p=p(successful) q=p(failure)
 For event A, the event not A called a complement of A. To compute the probability of the
complement of A, we use P(not A)=1-P(A)
Examples:

 Suppose you are going to throw two fair dice. What is the probability of getting 5 on each
die?
P(5 on both dice) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

 Compute the probability of drawing two aces from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards
if the first card is ace and is not replaced before the second card is drawn.
P(4 aces) = 4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221
 Find the probability of
P(jack or king) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 2/13
P(king or diamond) = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52 = 4/13
 Mutually exclusive events (disjoint) event that cannot occur together.
-
 The cost less clothing carries seconds in slacks. If you buy a pair of slacks in your
regular waist size without trying them on, the probability that the waist will be too tight is
0.30 and the probability that it will be too loose is 0.10, if you choose a pair of slacks at
random in your regular waist size, what is the probability that the waist will be too tight or
too loose?
0.30 + 0.10 = 0.40

TREE DIAGRAMS
An effective way of graphically describing a sample space is through the use of tree
diagrams. When a sample space can be constructed in several steps or stages, we can
represent each of the 𝑛1 ways of completing the first step as a branch of a tree. Each of the
ways of completing the second step can be represented as 𝑛2 branches starting from the
ends of the original branches, and so forth.
 Jacqueline is in the nursing program and is required to take a course in psychology and
one in anatomy and physiology (A and P) next semester. She also wants to take Spanish
II. If there are four sections of psychology, two of A and P, and three of Spanish II, how
many different class schedules can Jacqueline choose from?

 Suppose there are five balls in an urn/ They are identical except in color. Three of the
balls are red and two are blue. You are instructed to draw out one ball, note its color and
set it aside. Then you are to draw out another ball and note its color. What are the
outcomes of the experiment? What is the probability of each outcome?

EVENTS
Counting Rules And Techniques
 PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING
If a choice consists of two steps, of which the first can be made in 1 n ways and the
second can be made in n2 ways, then the whole choice can be made in n1n2 ways.
 A combination also concerns arrangements, but without regard to the order. This
means that the order or arrangement in which the elements are taken is not important. For
example, ab will be the same as ba, abc is the same arrangement as acb or bac.
4. In the design of an electromechanical product, seven different components are to be
stacked into a cylindrical casing that holds 12 components in a manner that minimizes the
impact of shocks. If the seven components are all identical, how many different designs are
possible?
 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions
 Discrete Random Variable
 When the observations of quantitative random variables can take only a finite
number of values or a countable number of values, we say that the variable is
discrete random variable.
 Continuous Random Variable
 When the observation of a quantitative random variable can take on any of the
countless number of values in a line interval, we say that the variable is a
continuous random variable.
 Discrete Random Variable
 When the observations of quantitative random variables can take only a finite
number of values or a countable number of values, we say that the variable is
discrete random variable.
 Continuous Random Variable
 When the observation of a quantitative random variable can take on any of the
countless number of values in a line interval, we say that the variable is a
continuous random variable.
 Probability Distributions
 A random variables has a probability distributions whether it is discrete or
continuous. The probability distribution is simply an assignment of probabilities to
the specific values of the random variable.
 The probability distribution of a discrete random variable has a probability assigned
to each value of the random variable.
 The sum of these probabilities must be 1.

Example
 One of the elementary tools of cryptanalysis (the science of code braking) is to use
relative frequencies of the occurrence of different letters in the alphabet to break
standard English alphabet codes. Large samples of plain text such as newspaper stories
generally yield about the same relative frequencies for letters. A sample 1000 letters long
yielded the information in the table.

Lette Frequenc RF Lette Frequenc RF

r y r y

A 73 0.07 N 78 0.07
3 8

B 9 0.00 O 74 0.07
9 4
 C 30 0.03 P 27 0.02
0 7

D 44 0.04 Q 3 0.00
4 3

E 130 0.13 R 77 0.07

0 7

F 28 0.02 S 63 0.06
8 3

G 16 0.01 T 93 0.09
6 3

H 35 0.03 U 27 0.02
5 7

I 74 0.07 V 13 0.01
4 3

J 2 0.00 W 16 0.01
2 6

K 3 0.00 X 5 0.00
3 5

L 35 0.03 Y 19 0.01
5 9

M 25 0.02 Z 1 0.00
5 1

 If the letter is selected at random from a newspaper story, what is the probability that the
letter will be a vowel?

P(Vowel) = P(a) + P(e) + P(i) + P(o) + P(u)

0.073 + 0.130 + 0.074 + 0.074 + 0.027
P(Vowel) = 0.378

Mean and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Probability Distribution


 Expected Value
 The mean of the probability distribution is often called the expected value of the
distribution.
 This terminology reflects the idea that the mean represents a central point or cluster
point for the entire distribution.
 Are we influence to buy a product because we saw an ad on TV? National Infomercial
Marketing Association determined the number of buyers of a product watched a TV
informercial before purchasing the product. The results are as follows:

 At a carnival you pay $2.00 to play a coin flipping game with three fair coins. On each
coin, one side has a number 0 and other side has the number 1. You flip the three coins
at one time and you win $1 for every 1 that appears on top. What is your expected
earnings equal to the cost to play?

Binomial Probabilities
 When a problem is characterized by the feature there exactly two possible outcomes for
each trial of interest, it is called binomial experiment of Bernoulli experiments.

Features of Binomial Experiment

 There are fixed number of trials. We denote this by the letter n.
 The n trials are independent and repeated under identical conditions.
 Each trial has only two outcomes: success (p) and failure (q). Since each trial results in
either success or failure, p+q=1 and q=1-p
 The central problem of binomial experiment is to find the probability of r successes out of
n trials.

Example
 Privacy is a concern for many users of the internet. One survey showed that 59% of the
internet users are somewhat concerned about the confidentiality of their email. Based on
this information, what is the probability that for a random sample of 10 internet users, 6
are concerned about the privacy of their email?
P = 0.59
Q = 0.41
N = 10
R=6
 A biologist studying a new hybrid tomato. It is known that the seeds of this hybrid tomato
have probability of 0.70 of germinating. The biologist plants 10 seeds.
a) What is the probability that exactly 8 seeds will germinate?
b) What is the probability that at least 8 seeds will germinate?
P = 0.70
Q = 0.30
N = 10
R=8
 The probability that Kyla will score above 90 on the math exam is 4/5. What is the
probability that she will score above a 90 on exactly three of the four test this quarter?
P = 0.80
Q = 0.20
N=4
R=3
 Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it.
What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?
P = 0.25
Q = 0.75
N=6
 R=4

ACTIVITY
1. Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it.
What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?
2. In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt to make a
telephone call. This often depended on the importance of the person making the call or
the operators curiosity. Calculate the probability of having 7 success in 10 attempts.
3. A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his pistons are
rejected because they are either oversized or undersized. What is the probability that a
batch of 10 pistons will contain a. no more than 2 rejects b. at least 2 rejects?
4. After studying a couple’s family history, a doctor determines that the probability of any
child born to this couple having a gene for disease X is 1 out of 4. If the couple has 3
children, what is the probability that exactly two of the children have the gene for disease
X?

 In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt to make a
telephone call. This often depended on the importance of the person making the call or
the operators curiosity. Calculate the probability of having 7 success in 10 attempts.
P = 0.80
Q = 0.20
N = 10
R=7

 A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his pistons are
rejected because they are either oversized or undersized. What is the probability that a
batch of 10 pistons will contain a. no more than 2 rejects b. at least 2 rejects?
 After studying a couple’s family history, a doctor determines that the probability of any
child born to this couple having a gene for disease X is 1 out of 4. If the couple has 3
children, what is the probability that exactly two of the children have the gene for disease
X?
P = ¼ = 0.25
Q = 0.75
N=3
R=2

Mean and Standard Deviation of Binomial Probability Distribution

Where n is the number of trials
P is the probability of success
Q is the probability of failure

Example
 On any given day, the probability that the entire Watson family eats dinner together is
2/5. Find the probability that, during any 7-day period, the Watson’s eat dinner together
atleast 6 times.
P = 2/5 = 0.4
Q = 0.6
N=7
R=6

Geometric and Poisson Distribution

Where n is the number of trial on which the first success occurs (n=1,2,3 …) and p is
the probability of success on each trial.

Example
 An automobile assembly plant produces sheet metal door panels. Each panel moves on
an assembly line. As the panel passes a robot, a mechanical arm will perform spot
welding at different locations. Each location has a magnetic dot painted where the weld
is to be made. The robot is programmed to locate the magnetic dot and perform the
weld. However, experience shows that on each trial the robot is only 85% successful at
locating the dot. If it cannot locate the magnetic dot, it is programmed to try again. The
robot will keep on trying until it finds the dot and does the weld or the panel door passes
out the robot’s reach
 What is the probability that the robot’s first success will be on attempts n = 1, 2 or 3?
 The assembly line moves so fast that the robot only has a maximum of three chances
before the door panel is out of reach. What is the probability that the robot will be
successful before the door panel is out of reach?
 What is the probability that the robot will not be able to locate the correct spot within
three tries? If 10,000 panels are made, what is the expected number of detectives?
P(F) = 1 - P(S)
 q=1-p
= 1 – 0.9966
= 0.0034

 Susan is taking Western Civilization this semester on a pass/fail basis/ The department
teaching the course has a history of passing 77% of the students in western civilization
each term. Let n = 1,2,3 … represent the number of times a student takes Western
civilization until the first passing grade is received.
a) What is the probability that susan passes on the first try? On the second try?

b) What is the probability that susan needs three or more tries to pass western civilization?

Hypergeometric Distribution

 The probability that an n-trial hypergeometric experiment results in exactly r successes,

when the population consists of N items, M of which are classified as successes.
 h(r;N,n,M) = (MCr)(N-M C n-r) / NCn
 N= number of items in the population
 M= number of items in the population that are classified as successes.
 N=number of items in the sample
 R = number of items in the sample that are classified as successes

Mean and Variance

 Mean = n / M/N
 Variance = nM(N-M)(N-n)/(N^2)(N-1)

1. A batch of 10 rocket cover gasket contains 4 defective gaskets. If we draw a sample size
of 3 without replacement, from the batch of 10, find the probability that a sample contains
2 defective gaskets?
2. In the manufacture of car tires, a particular production process is known to yield 10 tires
with defective walls in every batch of 100 tires produced. From a production of batch of
100 tires, a sample of 4 is selected for testing to destruction. Find:
a) The probability that the sample contains 1 defective tire
b) The expectation of the number of defectives
c) The variance of the number of defectives