Get Maths Fit!

Binomial and Probability

Distributions

Julie.crowley@mtu.ie
 What is Probability?

Get What is a Probability Distribution?

Maths Example with the Binomial

Fit
Distribution

Example with the Poisson Probability

Distribution

Disclaimer: This is not a lecture. This is a revision workshop

What is probability?
• Puts a number on how likeliness of
an event occurring

• A number between 0 and 1

What is a probability
distribution?
• Function/formula that gives the
probability of occurrence of
different possible outcomes of an
experiment

• Examples
• Binomial
• Poisson
• Normal
• Others
 Binomial Distribution
Example 1: A particular mobile phone link is known to transmit 6% of ‘bits’ of information in error. As an

engineer you might need to know the probability that two bits out of the next ten transmitted

are in error.

Example 2. A machine is known to produce, on average, 2% defective components. As an engineer you

might need to know the probability that 3 items are defective in the next 20 produced.

Binomial distribution formula: We assume that

(1). there is a fixed number of trials n
(2). there are two possible outcomes in each trial: success and failure
(3). there is a fixed probability p of success in each trial (probability q = 1
− p of failure in each trial)
(4). the outcomes of the trials are independent
Binomial Distribution

Binomial distribution formula: We assume that

(1). there is a fixed number of trials n
(2). there are two possible outcomes in each
trial: success and failure
(3). there is a fixed probability p of success in
each trial (probability q = 1 − p of failure in each
trial)
(4). the outcomes of the trials are independent
Binomial Distribution

Binomial distribution formula: We assume that

(1). there is a fixed number of trials n
(2). there are two possible outcomes in each
trial: success and failure
(3). there is a fixed probability p of success in
each trial (probability q = 1 − p of failure in each
trial)
(4). the outcomes of the trials are independent
 Binomial Distribution
5% of all components produced on a production line pass all quality control tests.
Six components are chosen at random.
What is the probability that
(i) all six pass;
 Binomial Distribution
5% of all components produced on a production line pass all quality control tests.
Six components are chosen at random.
What is the probability that
(ii) two or more pass all quality control tests?
Binomial Distribution Example
 Poisson Distribution
Examples
- in analysing traffic flow
- in fault prediction on electric cables
- in the prediction of randomly occurring accidents
 Poisson
Distribution
Example
Poisson as approximation to Binomial
• Large n and small p.
• Average =np