Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2
Price changes and welfare
1. Base weighted price indices
2. Substitution bias
3. The expenditure function price index
4. Change in Consumer Surplus (∆CS)
5. Compensating Variation (CV)
6. Equivalent Variation (EV)
7. Income effects and CV, EV and ∆CS
8. Using EV to assess the effects of a tax
3
1. Price indices measure inflation
4
How to design price indices?
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UK price indices: CPI, CPIH and RPI
• Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
• Measures the change in the cost of a representative basket of goods and services bought
by households
• Interpreted as a measure of how the cost of the standard of living is changing.
• Official inflation target 2%
Bank of England
Monetary Policy Report
August 2021
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Current CPI inflation outlook
• The CPI rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to August 2021, up from 2.0% in July
• This is the largest ever recorded increase in the CPI 12-month inflation rate
series, which began in January 1997
• Inflation is above the 2% target. Why?
• Prices were low due to lockdowns and ‘Eat Out to Help Out’.
• As countries around the world have reopened, demand has increased sharply.
• Shortages of materials used in production have made it difficult to meet demand, pushing
up costs and prices.
• Above target inflation is expected to be temporary.
• Next report: November 2021.
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Contributions to
CPIH 12-month
inflation rate
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Base weighted price indices
• The CPI is a base weighted price index, or a Laspeyres price index
• Let 𝑝!" , 𝑝#" , 𝑝$" … 𝑝%" denote the prices of the goods at date A
• Let 𝑝!& , 𝑝#& , 𝑝$& … 𝑝%& denote the prices of the goods at date B
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Base weighted price indices
!!" "!# #!$" "$# #…#!%" "%#
• 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 = !!# "!# #!$# "$# #…#!%# "%#
• The base weighted price index is a weighted average of proportionate price increases,
where the weight for good i is the proportion of expenditure spent on good i at date A.
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UK Millennials survey
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How does spending vary with age? (ONS, 2017)
All
75+
65-74
50-64
30-49
less
than 30
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If income changes in line with
the base weighted price index,
then:
A. Consumers are neither better off nor
worse off
B. Consumers cannot be worse off, but
may be better off
C. Consumers cannot be better off, but
may be worse off
D. Consumers will definitely be better off
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Let’s have a look…
• Suppose there are two consumer goods
'!" (!# )'$" ($#
• The base weighted price index:
'!# (!# )'$# ($#
• At prices 𝑝1𝐴, 𝑝2𝐴 , consumption (𝑥1𝐴, 𝑥2𝐴) is optimal and generates 𝑢𝐴;
income (and expenditure) is 𝑝!" 𝑥!" + 𝑝#" 𝑥#"
• If income changes at the same rate as the base weighted priced index it
changes to 𝑝!& 𝑥!" + 𝑝#& 𝑥#"
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2. Substitution bias
• If income increases at the same rate as the base weighted price index,
then the consumer cannot be worse off
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Can the consumer be worse off?
𝑥2
𝐴
𝑥2𝐴 ●
– 𝑝1𝐴/𝑝2𝐴
0 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
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Can the consumer be worse off?
𝑥2
𝐴
𝑥2𝐴 ●
0 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
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What if all prices rise at the same rate?
𝑥2
• If prices change at the same
rate, then 𝐵𝐿𝐴 and 𝐵𝐿𝐵 are the
same
𝑥2𝐴 ●𝐴
0 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
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3. The expenditure function price index
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The expenditure function price index
𝑥2
• 𝐸(𝑝1𝐴, 𝑝2𝐴, 𝑢" ) is the minimum 𝐸 𝑝!" , 𝑝#" , 𝑢$
expenditure needed to get 𝐵𝐿𝐶 𝐸 𝑝!$ , 𝑝#$ , 𝑢$
𝑥2𝐴 ●𝐴
• The consumer is no better off or 𝑢𝐴
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Problem with the expenditure function price index
• Requires knowledge of the expenditure function
• The expenditure function is derived from the utility function
• …but the utility function is unobservable!
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4. Change in Consumer Surplus (∆CS)
• Consider an increase in price of good 1 from 𝑝1𝐴 to 𝑝1𝐵
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Change in Consumer Surplus
𝑥2 𝑝1
Indifference map Uncompensated Demand
𝑚/𝑝2 𝑢B 𝑢𝐴 𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
𝑝!" ●𝐵 𝑢𝐵 here
𝐵 ●
●𝐴
𝑝!$ ●𝐴
𝑢𝐴 here
𝑝!" 𝑝!$
− −
𝑝# 𝑝#
0 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
0 𝑥1𝐵
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5. Compensating Variation (CV)
• Consider an increase in price of good 1 from 𝑝1𝐴 to 𝑝1𝐵
• The compensating variation for a price increase from 𝑝1𝐴 to 𝑝1𝐵 is the
amount of extra money the consumer needs to receive in order to get
the same level of utility as before the price change
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Compensating variation 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =
𝐸 𝑝!" , 𝑝#, 𝑢$
𝐶𝑉 𝑝#
𝑝#
𝐸 𝑝!$ , 𝑝#, 𝑢$
𝐵
𝑝# ●
𝑥2𝐴 ●𝐴 𝑝!$
𝑝!" 𝑢𝐴 − 𝑝
− #
𝑝#
0 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
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CV and Shephards’ Lemma
• Recall Shephard’s Lemma (topic 1.3):
𝜕𝐸 𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢
= ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢)
𝜕𝑝1
'')
C ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢)𝑑𝑝! = 𝐸 𝑝1𝐵, 𝑝2, 𝑢 − 𝐸 𝑝1𝐴, 𝑝2, 𝑢
''(
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Compensating variation
Compensated demand
curve ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢$ )
0 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
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6. Equivalent Variation (EV)
• Consider an increase in price of good 1 from 𝑝1𝐴 to 𝑝1𝐵
• The equivalent variation for a price increase from 𝑝1𝐴 to 𝑝1𝐵 is the amount
of money that needs to be taken away from the consumer (without
changing prices) that has the same effect on utility as the price change
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Equivalent variation 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =
&!#
𝑝1𝐵 𝐵 =@ ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢" )𝑑𝑝!
● &!"
Compensated demand
curve ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐵)
0 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1
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Let’s put it all together…
𝑥2 𝑝1
Indifference map Demand curves
𝐶𝑉
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐵 )
𝑝#
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐴)
𝐸𝑉
𝐵
𝑝# ●𝐵 𝑝!" ●𝐶 ●
●𝐶
𝐴
● 𝐷 𝐴
𝐷 𝑝!$ ● ●
●
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
𝑢𝐴
𝑢B
0 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
0 38
Compensating variation
𝑥2 𝑝1
Indifference map Demand curves
𝐶𝑉
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐵 )
𝑝#
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐴)
𝐸𝑉
𝐵
𝑝# ●𝐵 𝑝!" 𝐸 ●𝐶 ●
●𝐶 𝐶𝑉 = 𝐸𝐵𝐴𝐹
𝐴
● 𝐹 𝐷 𝐴
𝐷 𝑝!$ ● ●
●
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
𝑢𝐴
𝑢B
0 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
0 39
Equivalent variation
𝑥2 𝑝1
Indifference map Demand curves
𝐶𝑉
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐵 )
𝑝#
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐴)
𝐸𝑉
𝐵
𝑝# ●𝐵 𝑝!" 𝐸 ●𝐶 ●
●𝐶 𝐸𝑉 = 𝐸𝐶𝐷𝐹
𝐴
● 𝐹 𝐷 𝐴
𝐷 𝑝!$ ● ●
●
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
𝑢𝐴
𝑢B
0 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
0 40
Change in Consumer Surplus
𝑥2 𝑝1
Indifference map Demand curves
𝐶𝑉
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐵 )
𝑝#
ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐴)
𝐸𝑉
𝐵
𝑝# ●𝐵 𝑝!" 𝐸 ●𝐶 ●
●𝐶 ∆𝐶𝑆 = 𝐸𝐶𝐴𝐹
𝐴
● 𝐹 𝐷 𝐴
𝐷 𝑝!$ ● ●
●
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
𝑢𝐴
𝑢B
0 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1 𝑥1𝐶 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐷 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
0 41
Normal good: CV, EV and ∆CS
𝑝1
Demand curves
• Uncompensated demand is more ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐵 )
elastic than compensated demand ℎ1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑢𝐴)
because income and substitution 𝐵
effects work in the same direction 𝑝!" 𝐸 ●𝐶 ●
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
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Which monetary welfare measure should we use?
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Example: fuel tax
• A government imposes a fuel tax
𝑥2
• Lump sum tax of R:
𝑝1𝐴 𝑥1 + 𝑝2𝑥2 = 𝑚 − R
●𝐷
𝑝! 𝑝!
• Politically sustainable? Ethical? 𝐶
●
0 𝑥1
𝑝"# + 𝑡
−
𝑝!
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What have we achieved?
• Understanding of uses and limitations of price indices
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Review checklist:
1. What is a base-weighted price index? How is it computed? What
are its limitations?
2. What is substitution bias and when does it arise?
3. How does the CPI compare to the expenditure function price
index?
4. Define CV, EV and ∆CS.
5. Can you illustrate CV, EV and ∆CS for a price change in the case of a
normal good? How about for an inferior good?
6. How do CV, EV and ∆CS compare if there is no income effect?
7. What is the excess burden of an excise tax? Why does it arise?
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Appendix 1 - differentiation and integration
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The relationship between differentiation and integration
If y = f ( x ) y
dy f’(x)
= f ' ( x)
dx
b
0 a b x
then f(b) - f ( a ) = ò f ' ( x )dx
a
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Appendix 2 - Derivation of the formula for the fall in
consumer surplus in terms of elasticity
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How can we estimate ∆CS?
𝑝1
Uncompensated Demand
• Depends on price elasticity of demand
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
• Fall in CS =
!
𝑝!" − 𝑝!$ 𝑥!$ − # 𝑝!" − 𝑝!$ 𝑥!$ − 𝑥!" 𝑝!$ 𝐴
●
𝑥1 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
0 𝑥1𝐵
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How can we estimate ∆CS?
𝑝1
Uncompensated Demand
• If demand is approximately linear, 𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
we can estimate ∆CS using
observable prices and quantities 𝑝!" ●𝐵
• Fall in CS =
1 𝑝!$ 𝐴
●
( p1B - p1 A ) x1 A - ( p1B - p1 A )( x1 A - x1B )
2
1
» Dp1 x1 A + Dp1Dx1
2
• This crucially depends on elasticity 𝑥1
0 𝑥1𝐵 𝑥1𝐴 𝑥1
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How can we estimate ∆CS?
• Easy to estimate using the formula 𝑝1
Uncompensated Demand
𝑥1(𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑚)
• Fall in CS =
𝑝!" ●𝐵
𝑝!$ 𝐴
●
1
Dp1 x1 A + Dp1Dx1
2
æ 1 Dx1 ö æ 1 æ Dx1 p1 ö Dp1 ö
= Dp1 x1 A çç1 + ÷÷ = Dp1 x1 A ç1 + çç ÷÷ ÷
2 x ç 2 Dp x p ÷
è 1A ø è è 1 1A ø 1 ø
æ 1 Dp1 ö Dx1 p1
= Dp1 x1 A çç1 + e ÷÷ where e = < 0 = elasticity
è 2 p1 ø Dp1 x1 A
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