Date Adjusted Close Moving Average(k=3) MAD MSE

74.43
20-Apr-17 78.84 #N/A
21-Apr-17 78.41 Question:- This excel sheet contains the daily closing #N/A
24-Apr-17 79.26 prices of American Express sock for a one -year 77.23 2.03 4.13
25-Apr-17 79.44 period. 78.84 0.60 0.36
a. Using a 3 period moving average, forecast the
26-Apr-17 79.33 price of this stock for the next trading day. How well 79.04 0.29 0.09
27-Apr-17 79.14 does this method with period of 3 forecast the 79.34 0.20 0.04
28-Apr-17 78.08 known observation in this series? 79.30 1.22 1.50
b. Repeat part a with a period of 10.
1-May-17 78.06 c. Which of these two period of moving average 78.85 0.79 0.63
2-May-17 78.36 appears to be more appropriate? Justify your 78.43 0.06 0.00
3-May-17 77.67 choices. 78.17 0.50 0.25
4-May-17 77.17 78.03 0.86 0.74
5-May-17 77.16 77.73 0.57 0.33
8-May-17 77.01 77.33 0.33 0.11
9-May-17 77.28 77.11 0.17 0.03
10-May-17 77.49 77.15 0.34 0.11
11-May-17 76.77 77.26 0.49 0.24
12-May-17 76.35 77.18 0.83 0.70
15-May-17 77.17 76.87 0.30 0.09
16-May-17 76.98 76.76 0.21 0.05
17-May-17 75.24 76.83 1.59 2.53
18-May-17 75.25 76.46 1.21 1.47
19-May-17 75.67 75.82 0.16 0.02
22-May-17 75.84 75.39 0.46 0.21
23-May-17 76.06 75.59 0.47 0.22
24-May-17 75.98 75.86 0.12 0.02
25-May-17 76.30 75.96 0.33 0.11
26-May-17 76.32 76.11 0.20 0.04
30-May-17 75.95 76.20 0.25 0.06
31-May-17 75.80 76.19 0.38 0.15
1-Jun-17 77.12 76.02 1.10 1.21
2-Jun-17 77.33 76.29 1.04 1.08
 5-Jun-17 77.80 76.75 1.05 1.10
6-Jun-17 77.69 77.42 0.27 0.07
7-Jun-17 78.63 77.61 1.02 1.05
8-Jun-17 78.77 78.04 0.73 0.53
9-Jun-17 79.12 78.36 0.76 0.58
12-Jun-17 78.99 78.84 0.14 0.02
13-Jun-17 79.40 78.96 0.44 0.19
14-Jun-17 79.65 79.17 0.48 0.23
15-Jun-17 79.51 79.34 0.16 0.03
16-Jun-17 80.25 79.52 0.73 0.53
19-Jun-17 80.67 79.80 0.87 0.76
20-Jun-17 81.29 80.14 1.15 1.32
21-Jun-17 81.00 80.74 0.26 0.07
22-Jun-17 81.03 80.99 0.05 0.00
23-Jun-17 81.01 81.11 0.10 0.01
26-Jun-17 81.73 81.01 0.72 0.52
27-Jun-17 81.85 81.26 0.59 0.35
28-Jun-17 82.73 81.53 1.20 1.44
29-Jun-17 82.39 82.11 0.29 0.08
30-Jun-17 83.00 82.33 0.67 0.45
3-Jul-17 83.84 82.71 1.14 1.29
5-Jul-17 83.95 83.08 0.87 0.76
6-Jul-17 82.81 83.60 0.78 0.61
7-Jul-17 83.40 83.54 0.14 0.02
10-Jul-17 83.37 83.39 0.02 0.00
11-Jul-17 83.23 83.19 0.04 0.00
12-Jul-17 83.88 83.33 0.55 0.30
13-Jul-17 84.43 83.49 0.93 0.87
14-Jul-17 84.34 83.85 0.49 0.24
17-Jul-17 84.28 84.22 0.06 0.00
18-Jul-17 84.57 84.35 0.23 0.05
19-Jul-17 84.98 84.40 0.58 0.34
 20-Jul-17 84.41 84.61 0.20 0.04
21-Jul-17 84.64 84.65 0.01 0.00
24-Jul-17 84.06 84.68 0.62 0.38
25-Jul-17 84.47 84.37 0.10 0.01
26-Jul-17 84.36 84.39 0.03 0.00
27-Jul-17 82.92 84.29 1.37 1.88
28-Jul-17 83.86 83.92 0.05 0.00
31-Jul-17 84.29 83.71 0.57 0.33
1-Aug-17 84.30 83.69 0.61 0.37
2-Aug-17 84.36 84.15 0.21 0.04
3-Aug-17 84.59 84.31 0.28 0.08
4-Aug-17 85.02 84.42 0.60 0.36
7-Aug-17 84.90 84.66 0.24 0.06
8-Aug-17 84.99 84.84 0.15 0.02
9-Aug-17 84.74 84.97 0.23 0.05
10-Aug-17 83.63 84.88 1.25 1.57
11-Aug-17 83.36 84.45 1.09 1.20
14-Aug-17 84.53 83.91 0.62 0.38
15-Aug-17 85.83 83.84 1.99 3.98
16-Aug-17 86.42 84.57 1.85 3.43
17-Aug-17 85.14 85.59 0.45 0.21
18-Aug-17 84.44 85.80 1.36 1.85
21-Aug-17 84.36 85.33 0.98 0.95
22-Aug-17 84.36 84.64 0.29 0.08
23-Aug-17 84.34 84.38 0.05 0.00
24-Aug-17 84.42 84.35 0.07 0.00
25-Aug-17 84.53 84.37 0.16 0.02
28-Aug-17 84.47 84.43 0.04 0.00
29-Aug-17 84.48 84.47 0.01 0.00
30-Aug-17 84.74 84.49 0.25 0.06
31-Aug-17 85.15 84.56 0.59 0.34
1-Sep-17 85.19 84.79 0.40 0.16
 5-Sep-17 84.37 85.03 0.66 0.44
6-Sep-17 84.29 84.90 0.61 0.38
7-Sep-17 83.48 84.61 1.14 1.29
8-Sep-17 83.32 84.04 0.73 0.53
11-Sep-17 84.74 83.69 1.05 1.10
12-Sep-17 85.59 83.85 1.75 3.05
13-Sep-17 85.68 84.55 1.13 1.28
14-Sep-17 85.24 85.34 0.10 0.01
15-Sep-17 86.03 85.50 0.52 0.27
18-Sep-17 86.90 85.65 1.25 1.56
19-Sep-17 88.02 86.05 1.96 3.85
20-Sep-17 87.45 86.98 0.47 0.22
21-Sep-17 87.44 87.46 0.01 0.00
22-Sep-17 87.42 87.64 0.21 0.05
25-Sep-17 87.23 87.44 0.20 0.04
26-Sep-17 87.71 87.37 0.34 0.12
27-Sep-17 88.50 87.46 1.05 1.09
28-Sep-17 89.14 87.81 1.33 1.77
29-Sep-17 89.46 88.45 1.01 1.02
2-Oct-17 89.54 89.03 0.51 0.26
3-Oct-17 90.42 89.38 1.04 1.08
4-Oct-17 90.00 89.81 0.20 0.04
5-Oct-17 90.50 89.99 0.51 0.26
6-Oct-17 90.89 90.31 0.58 0.34
9-Oct-17 91.03 90.46 0.56 0.32
10-Oct-17 91.22 90.80 0.42 0.18
11-Oct-17 91.29 91.05 0.25 0.06
12-Oct-17 90.95 91.18 0.24 0.06
13-Oct-17 92.19 91.15 1.03 1.07
16-Oct-17 91.29 91.48 0.18 0.03
17-Oct-17 91.03 91.48 0.45 0.20
18-Oct-17 91.41 91.50 0.09 0.01
19-Oct-17 91.23 91.24 0.01 0.00
20-Oct-17 91.42 91.22 0.20 0.04
23-Oct-17 91.71 91.36 0.35 0.13
24-Oct-17 93.18 91.46 1.72 2.97
25-Oct-17 92.85 92.10 0.75 0.56
26-Oct-17 95.00 92.58 2.42 5.84
27-Oct-17 95.10 93.68 1.42 2.01
30-Oct-17 94.38 94.32 0.07 0.00
31-Oct-17 94.83 94.82 0.00 0.00
1-Nov-17 95.10 94.77 0.33 0.11
2-Nov-17 95.29 94.77 0.52 0.27
3-Nov-17 95.73 95.07 0.66 0.44
6-Nov-17 95.59 95.37 0.22 0.05
7-Nov-17 94.68 95.54 0.86 0.74
8-Nov-17 94.44 95.33 0.89 0.80
9-Nov-17 93.07 94.90 1.83 3.36
10-Nov-17 92.84 94.06 1.22 1.49
13-Nov-17 93.22 93.45 0.23 0.05
14-Nov-17 93.08 93.04 0.04 0.00
15-Nov-17 92.59 93.05 0.46 0.21
16-Nov-17 92.88 92.96 0.08 0.01
17-Nov-17 93.01 92.85 0.16 0.03
20-Nov-17 93.27 92.83 0.44 0.20
21-Nov-17 93.73 93.05 0.67 0.45
22-Nov-17 93.14 93.34 0.20 0.04
24-Nov-17 92.80 93.38 0.58 0.33
27-Nov-17 92.79 93.22 0.43 0.18
28-Nov-17 94.59 92.91 1.68 2.82
29-Nov-17 95.90 93.40 2.50 6.27
30-Nov-17 97.00 94.43 2.57 6.63
1-Dec-17 97.15 95.83 1.32 1.74
4-Dec-17 97.88 96.68 1.19 1.42
 5-Dec-17 98.00 97.34 0.65 0.43
6-Dec-17 97.50 97.67 0.17 0.03
7-Dec-17 97.87 97.79 0.08 0.01
8-Dec-17 97.84 97.79 0.05 0.00
11-Dec-17 98.28 97.73 0.55 0.30
12-Dec-17 98.65 98.00 0.66 0.43
13-Dec-17 97.07 98.26 1.18 1.40
14-Dec-17 96.45 98.00 1.56 2.42
15-Dec-17 97.81 97.39 0.42 0.17
18-Dec-17 98.96 97.11 1.85 3.42
19-Dec-17 98.43 97.74 0.70 0.48
20-Dec-17 97.80 98.40 0.60 0.36
21-Dec-17 97.79 98.40 0.61 0.37
22-Dec-17 98.03 98.01 0.02 0.00
26-Dec-17 97.86 97.87 0.01 0.00
27-Dec-17 98.41 97.89 0.52 0.27
28-Dec-17 98.98 98.10 0.88 0.77
29-Dec-17 98.59 98.42 0.18 0.03
2-Jan-18 98.22 98.66 0.44 0.19
3-Jan-18 98.83 98.60 0.23 0.05
4-Jan-18 100.47 98.55 1.93 3.71
5-Jan-18 100.70 99.18 1.53 2.33
8-Jan-18 99.78 100.00 0.23 0.05
9-Jan-18 100.14 100.32 0.17 0.03
10-Jan-18 100.84 100.21 0.63 0.40
11-Jan-18 100.35 100.25 0.10 0.01
12-Jan-18 100.59 100.45 0.15 0.02
16-Jan-18 99.97 100.60 0.63 0.40
17-Jan-18 100.38 100.30 0.08 0.01
18-Jan-18 99.49 100.31 0.83 0.68
19-Jan-18 97.66 99.95 2.28 5.21
22-Jan-18 97.95 99.18 1.23 1.50
23-Jan-18 97.61 98.37 0.75 0.57
24-Jan-18 98.93 97.74 1.19 1.41
25-Jan-18 99.32 98.17 1.15 1.33
26-Jan-18 99.26 98.62 0.64 0.41
29-Jan-18 99.04 99.17 0.13 0.02
30-Jan-18 98.34 99.20 0.86 0.74
31-Jan-18 99.03 98.88 0.15 0.02
1-Feb-18 99.63 98.80 0.82 0.68
2-Feb-18 96.32 99.00 2.68 7.18
5-Feb-18 91.67 98.32 6.66 44.33
6-Feb-18 93.83 95.87 2.04 4.17
7-Feb-18 93.26 93.94 0.68 0.46
8-Feb-18 88.01 92.92 4.91 24.09
9-Feb-18 91.38 91.70 0.32 0.10
12-Feb-18 94.35 90.88 3.46 12.00
13-Feb-18 94.21 91.24 2.96 8.77
14-Feb-18 95.87 93.31 2.56 6.56
15-Feb-18 96.20 94.81 1.39 1.94
16-Feb-18 96.43 95.43 1.00 1.01
20-Feb-18 96.83 96.17 0.66 0.44
21-Feb-18 97.14 96.48 0.65 0.42
22-Feb-18 96.99 96.80 0.19 0.04
23-Feb-18 98.43 96.98 1.45 2.10
26-Feb-18 101.26 97.52 3.74 14.01
27-Feb-18 99.21 98.89 0.32 0.10
28-Feb-18 97.15 99.63 2.49 6.19
1-Mar-18 94.78 99.20 4.42 19.54
2-Mar-18 95.24 97.05 1.80 3.25
5-Mar-18 96.30 95.72 0.57 0.33
6-Mar-18 95.71 95.44 0.27 0.07
7-Mar-18 95.28 95.75 0.47 0.22
8-Mar-18 96.23 95.76 0.47 0.22
 9-Mar-18 98.68 95.74 2.94 8.64
12-Mar-18 97.31 96.73 0.57 0.33
13-Mar-18 95.01 97.40 2.39 5.72
14-Mar-18 94.18 97.00 2.82 7.97
15-Mar-18 94.04 95.50 1.46 2.13
16-Mar-18 95.25 94.41 0.84 0.71
19-Mar-18 94.49 94.49 0.00 0.00
20-Mar-18 94.60 94.59 0.00 0.00
21-Mar-18 94.39 94.78 0.39 0.15
22-Mar-18 91.07 94.49 3.42 11.70
23-Mar-18 90.11 93.35 3.24 10.48
26-Mar-18 92.27 91.86 0.42 0.18
27-Mar-18 91.08 91.15 0.07 0.01
28-Mar-18 91.87 91.15 0.71 0.50
29-Mar-18 92.93 91.74 1.19 1.42
2-Apr-18 90.66 91.96 1.30 1.68
3-Apr-18 92.39 91.82 0.57 0.33
4-Apr-18 93.23 91.99 1.24 1.53
5-Apr-18 94.20 92.09 2.11 4.43
6-Apr-18 91.91 93.27 1.36 1.86
9-Apr-18 92.14 93.11 0.97 0.95
10-Apr-18 93.00 92.75 0.25 0.06
11-Apr-18 91.60 92.35 0.75 0.56
12-Apr-18 93.35 92.25 1.10 1.22
13-Apr-18 93.03 92.65 0.38 0.14
16-Apr-18 93.60 92.66 0.94 0.88
17-Apr-18 93.86 93.33 0.53 0.28
18-Apr-18 95.15 93.50 1.65 2.73
94.20 94.20 8874.27
Moving Average(k=10) MAD MSE

#N/A
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#N/A
#N/A
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78.34 0.670799999999986 0.45
78.66 1.48700000000001 2.21
78.49 1.33049999999999 1.77
78.37 1.3623 1.86
78.14 0.860699999999994 0.74
77.93 0.438000000000002 0.19
77.74 0.973799999999997 0.95
77.50 1.1593 1.34
77.33 0.158900000000003 0.03
77.24 0.267200000000003 0.07
77.10 1.8623 3.47
76.86 1.6099 2.59
76.67 1.0038 1.01
76.52 0.67710000000001 0.46
76.40 0.343800000000002 0.12
76.28 0.300600000000003 0.09
76.13 0.165199999999999 0.03
76.08 0.232499999999987 0.05
76.08 0.128500000000003 0.02
75.96 0.154399999999995 0.02
75.84 1.28279999999999 1.65
76.03 1.30159999999999 1.69
76.24 1.5667 2.45
76.45 1.23490000000001 1.52
76.63 1.9956 3.98
76.89 1.87650000000001 3.52
77.17 1.95270000000001 3.81
77.45 1.53190000000001 2.35
77.72 1.6789 2.82
78.06 1.5801 2.50
78.45 1.0579 1.12
78.69 1.5585 2.43
78.98 1.69090000000001 2.86
79.27 2.0252 4.10
79.63 1.3686 1.87
79.86 1.17110000000001 1.37
80.09 0.915499999999994 0.84
80.28 1.45629999999998 2.12
80.55 1.29940000000001 1.69
80.80 1.9311 3.73
81.11 1.2877 1.66
81.40 1.59999999999999 2.56
81.67 2.17209999999999 4.72
81.99 1.9639 3.86
82.25 0.560900000000004 0.31
82.44 0.962000000000003 0.93
82.67 0.696699999999993 0.49
82.91 0.321399999999997 0.10
83.06 0.8249 0.68
83.26 1.16590000000001 1.36
83.43 0.907200000000003 0.82
83.62 0.652900000000003 0.43
83.75 0.821699999999993 0.68
83.83 1.1545 1.33
83.93 0.47760000000001 0.23
84.09 0.555400000000006 0.31
84.21 0.152200000000008 0.02
84.28 0.183599999999998 0.03
84.41 0.0480000000000018 0.00
84.45 1.5295 2.34
84.30 0.440200000000004 0.19
84.25 0.0323000000000064 0.00
84.26 0.0412999999999926 0.00
84.23 0.129000000000005 0.02
84.17 0.428299999999993 0.18
84.18 0.834500000000006 0.70
84.22 0.677900000000008 0.46
84.31 0.682900000000004 0.47
84.36 0.383499999999998 0.15
84.40 0.772000000000006 0.60
84.47 1.1092 1.23
84.42 0.108200000000011 0.01
84.44 1.38939999999999 1.93
84.59 1.8291 3.35
84.80 0.337500000000006 0.11
84.85 0.418899999999994 0.18
84.80 0.439599999999999 0.19
84.74 0.385300000000001 0.15
84.68 0.342100000000002 0.12
84.64 0.2226 0.05
84.72 0.192700000000002 0.04
84.83 0.369399999999999 0.14
84.83 0.353400000000008 0.12
84.69 0.0491000000000099 0.00
84.52 0.623199999999997 0.39
84.53 0.661199999999994 0.44
84.60 0.234899999999996 0.06
84.60 0.314799999999991 0.10
84.59 1.11879999999999 1.25
84.51 1.19070000000001 1.42
84.40 0.343100000000007 0.12
84.42 1.1724 1.37
84.53 1.1486 1.32
84.65 0.582899999999995 0.34
84.70 1.3244 1.75
84.79 2.10639999999999 4.44
84.96 3.05330000000001 9.32
85.33 2.12429999999999 4.51
85.64 1.7978 3.23
86.04 1.38119999999999 1.91
86.45 0.782799999999995 0.61
86.70 1.0086 1.02
86.91 1.58799999999999 2.52
87.19 1.9492 3.80
87.58 1.8746 3.51
87.93 1.61150000000001 2.60
88.19 2.2274 4.96
88.43 1.5711 2.47
88.69 1.813 3.29
88.99 1.8942 3.59
89.34 1.68669999999999 2.84
89.72 1.50550000000001 2.27
90.07 1.22399999999999 1.50
90.35 0.596599999999995 0.36
90.53 1.65729999999999 2.75
90.80 0.491500000000002 0.24
90.98 0.0480000000000018 0.00
91.04 0.374300000000005 0.14
91.18 0.0542999999999978 0.00
91.25 0.169900000000013 0.03
91.31 0.404299999999992 0.16
91.38 1.80480000000001 3.26
91.57 1.2822 1.64
91.73 3.27030000000001 10.69
92.13 2.96420000000001 8.79
92.42 1.95830000000001 3.83
92.73 2.09660000000001 4.40
93.11 1.98440000000001 3.94
93.48 1.8051 3.26
93.89 1.84699999999999 3.41
94.32 1.2771 1.63
94.70 0.025100000000009 0.00
94.85 0.412999999999997 0.17
95.01 1.9418 3.77
94.82 1.9772 3.91
94.59 1.37490000000001 1.89
94.48 1.3978 1.95
94.30 1.71910000000001 2.96
94.05 1.17099999999999 1.37
93.81 0.801699999999997 0.64
93.54 0.270600000000002 0.07
93.31 0.417699999999996 0.17
93.21 0.0729999999999933 0.01
93.08 0.279899999999998 0.08
93.06 0.263099999999994 0.07
93.05 1.53890000000001 2.37
93.19 2.71190000000001 7.35
93.47 3.532 12.48
93.91 3.2393 10.49
94.34 3.53740000000001 12.51
 94.83 3.16990000000001 10.05
95.30 2.20139999999999 4.85
95.67 2.19109999999999 4.80
96.15 1.68849999999999 2.85
96.65 1.6322 2.66
97.20 1.4502 2.10
97.61 0.533799999999999 0.28
97.72 1.277 1.63
97.67 0.138599999999997 0.02
97.73 1.2251 1.50
97.84 0.590899999999991 0.35
97.88 0.0878000000000014 0.01
97.91 0.127599999999987 0.02
97.91 0.118300000000005 0.01
97.93 0.0696000000000083 0.00
97.88 0.529100000000014 0.28
97.86 1.1189 1.25
98.05 0.541299999999993 0.29
98.26 0.0412000000000035 0.00
98.31 0.523099999999999 0.27
98.29 2.18000000000001 4.75
98.50 2.20489999999999 4.86
98.79 0.987400000000008 0.97
98.99 1.1576 1.34
99.20 1.64270000000001 2.70
99.50 0.856200000000001 0.73
99.69 0.9011 0.81
99.85 0.112700000000004 0.01
99.99 0.393299999999996 0.15
100.21 0.718700000000013 0.52
100.27 2.60850000000001 6.80
99.99 2.0385 4.16
99.72 2.10149999999999 4.42
99.50 0.570400000000006 0.33
99.38 0.0609000000000037 0.00
99.23 0.0315000000000083 0.00
99.12 0.0778999999999996 0.01
98.96 0.619500000000002 0.38
98.80 0.229900000000001 0.05
98.66 0.963400000000007 0.93
98.68 2.35850000000001 5.56
98.54 6.87600000000001 47.28
97.91 4.08539999999999 16.69
97.53 4.27479999999999 18.27
96.97 8.9579 80.24
95.84 4.46020000000001 19.89
95.05 0.703199999999995 0.49
94.58 0.373999999999995 0.14
94.17 1.70350000000001 2.90
93.85 2.34829999999999 5.51
93.51 2.91999999999999 8.53
93.52 3.30699999999999 10.94
94.04 3.10000000000001 9.61
94.37 2.6203 6.87
94.74 3.6917 13.63
95.78 5.47970000000001 30.03
96.77 2.43939999999999 5.95
97.25 0.109800000000007 0.01
97.55 2.76469999999999 7.64
97.44 2.1981 4.83
97.34 1.04639999999999 1.09
97.33 1.6204 2.63
97.22 1.93790000000001 3.76
97.03 0.805599999999998 0.65
96.96 1.72110000000001 2.96
96.98 0.321100000000001 0.10
96.59 1.5754 2.48
96.17 1.99290000000001 3.97
95.87 1.83499999999999 3.37
95.80 0.545300000000012 0.30
95.80 1.31330000000001 1.72
95.62 1.02200000000001 1.04
95.51 1.1194 1.25
95.42 4.34780000000001 18.90
94.90 4.78770000000002 22.92
94.04 1.7689 3.13
93.54 2.4618 6.06
93.15 1.2813 1.64
92.92 0.0157999999999987 0.00
92.80 2.1446 4.60
92.35 0.0476000000000028 0.00
92.14 1.0938 1.20
92.00 2.20030000000001 4.84
91.98 0.0711000000000013 0.01
92.07 0.0746999999999929 0.01
92.27 0.731899999999996 0.54
92.34 0.740700000000004 0.55
92.39 0.957099999999997 0.92
92.54 0.488600000000005 0.24
92.55 1.0487 1.10
92.85 1.0147 1.03
92.99 2.15800000000002 4.66
93.18 93.184 8683.26
 Date Airline Index
19-Apr-17 112.22
20-Apr-17 113.53
21-Apr-17 112.91 The Closing value of the AMEX Airline Index for each trading
24-Apr-17 114.77 day for one year period is given in the excel file.
25-Apr-17 114.61 a. How well does the moving average method track this
26-Apr-17 113.44 series when the period is 4; when the period is 12?
b. Using the more appropriate period, forecast the closing
27-Apr-17 111.89 value of this index on the next trading day with the moving
28-Apr-17 112.12 average method.
1-May-17 111.62
2-May-17 114.40
3-May-17 115.02
4-May-17 114.50
5-May-17 114.94
8-May-17 114.00
9-May-17 114.72
10-May-17 115.17
11-May-17 114.17
12-May-17 113.68
15-May-17 115.60
16-May-17 115.82
17-May-17 112.23
18-May-17 110.97
19-May-17 112.04
22-May-17 112.28
23-May-17 112.92
24-May-17 112.88
25-May-17 115.38
26-May-17 115.28
30-May-17 113.33
31-May-17 113.22
1-Jun-17 114.45
2-Jun-17 115.58
 5-Jun-17 116.05
6-Jun-17 116.26
7-Jun-17 118.12
8-Jun-17 117.49
9-Jun-17 116.91
12-Jun-17 116.50
13-Jun-17 116.66
14-Jun-17 116.02
15-Jun-17 115.05
16-Jun-17 114.83
19-Jun-17 116.84
20-Jun-17 114.43
21-Jun-17 115.11
22-Jun-17 115.15
23-Jun-17 115.39
26-Jun-17 115.44
27-Jun-17 114.54
28-Jun-17 114.72
29-Jun-17 114.59
30-Jun-17 114.93
3-Jul-17 115.59
5-Jul-17 116.93
6-Jul-17 116.83
7-Jul-17 119.89
10-Jul-17 119.32
11-Jul-17 118.26
12-Jul-17 120.96
13-Jul-17 120.85
14-Jul-17 120.96
17-Jul-17 121.73
18-Jul-17 120.32
19-Jul-17 119.63
 20-Jul-17 118.47
21-Jul-17 117.64
24-Jul-17 116.11
25-Jul-17 115.67
26-Jul-17 115.07
27-Jul-17 111.16
28-Jul-17 111.66
31-Jul-17 110.43
1-Aug-17 111.46
2-Aug-17 111.29
3-Aug-17 111.28
4-Aug-17 111.90
7-Aug-17 111.45
8-Aug-17 110.78
9-Aug-17 110.24
10-Aug-17 108.86
11-Aug-17 108.44
14-Aug-17 109.96
15-Aug-17 110.18
16-Aug-17 110.25
17-Aug-17 106.71
18-Aug-17 106.84
21-Aug-17 107.17
22-Aug-17 106.10
23-Aug-17 103.89
24-Aug-17 102.81
25-Aug-17 106.11
28-Aug-17 105.29
29-Aug-17 105.67
30-Aug-17 105.13
31-Aug-17 105.60
1-Sep-17 106.52
 5-Sep-17 105.06
6-Sep-17 105.97
7-Sep-17 105.61
8-Sep-17 105.62
11-Sep-17 107.69
12-Sep-17 108.58
13-Sep-17 109.21
14-Sep-17 108.75
15-Sep-17 108.28
18-Sep-17 106.60
19-Sep-17 106.15
20-Sep-17 107.04
21-Sep-17 107.60
22-Sep-17 108.01
25-Sep-17 107.97
26-Sep-17 107.43
27-Sep-17 107.57
28-Sep-17 107.22
29-Sep-17 107.58
2-Oct-17 108.25
3-Oct-17 112.69
4-Oct-17 112.43
5-Oct-17 111.93
6-Oct-17 112.10
9-Oct-17 111.18
10-Oct-17 112.91
11-Oct-17 113.29
12-Oct-17 112.71
13-Oct-17 112.90
16-Oct-17 112.12
17-Oct-17 112.07
18-Oct-17 112.43
19-Oct-17 110.60
20-Oct-17 111.44
23-Oct-17 109.56
24-Oct-17 110.24
25-Oct-17 108.74
26-Oct-17 107.08
27-Oct-17 106.82
30-Oct-17 106.41
31-Oct-17 106.42
1-Nov-17 106.75
2-Nov-17 105.84
3-Nov-17 105.72
6-Nov-17 106.30
7-Nov-17 104.22
8-Nov-17 104.16
9-Nov-17 103.72
10-Nov-17 104.41
13-Nov-17 104.13
14-Nov-17 104.98
15-Nov-17 106.76
16-Nov-17 109.25
17-Nov-17 109.81
20-Nov-17 109.44
21-Nov-17 110.99
22-Nov-17 110.61
24-Nov-17 110.30
27-Nov-17 109.52
28-Nov-17 111.72
29-Nov-17 114.45
30-Nov-17 115.19
1-Dec-17 113.53
4-Dec-17 115.53
 5-Dec-17 113.91
6-Dec-17 113.65
7-Dec-17 115.29
8-Dec-17 115.60
11-Dec-17 115.64
12-Dec-17 114.71
13-Dec-17 114.68
14-Dec-17 114.56
15-Dec-17 115.07
18-Dec-17 117.14
19-Dec-17 116.74
20-Dec-17 117.27
21-Dec-17 118.16
22-Dec-17 117.90
26-Dec-17 118.04
27-Dec-17 117.52
28-Dec-17 117.63
29-Dec-17 116.72
2-Jan-18 118.51
3-Jan-18 116.85
4-Jan-18 116.76
5-Jan-18 116.61
8-Jan-18 115.48
9-Jan-18 115.04
10-Jan-18 116.97
11-Jan-18 121.53
12-Jan-18 123.62
16-Jan-18 122.81
17-Jan-18 122.53
18-Jan-18 122.61
19-Jan-18 122.69
22-Jan-18 122.25
23-Jan-18 123.00
24-Jan-18 119.34
25-Jan-18 116.53
26-Jan-18 118.06
29-Jan-18 118.17
30-Jan-18 117.95
31-Jan-18 119.06
1-Feb-18 119.62
2-Feb-18 116.48
5-Feb-18 112.29
6-Feb-18 114.09
7-Feb-18 114.92
8-Feb-18 111.80
9-Feb-18 111.80
12-Feb-18 114.18
13-Feb-18 115.48
14-Feb-18 116.42
15-Feb-18 117.59
16-Feb-18 117.37
20-Feb-18 117.88
21-Feb-18 118.77
22-Feb-18 118.45
23-Feb-18 119.43
26-Feb-18 121.65
27-Feb-18 119.05
28-Feb-18 118.68
1-Mar-18 117.96
2-Mar-18 116.80
5-Mar-18 116.71
6-Mar-18 117.05
7-Mar-18 117.37
8-Mar-18 118.92
 9-Mar-18 120.50
12-Mar-18 121.49
13-Mar-18 123.64
14-Mar-18 121.58
15-Mar-18 120.85
16-Mar-18 122.31
19-Mar-18 121.40
20-Mar-18 121.28
21-Mar-18 119.97
22-Mar-18 117.29
23-Mar-18 115.48
26-Mar-18 115.97
27-Mar-18 114.60
28-Mar-18 114.48
29-Mar-18 116.07
2-Apr-18 112.27
3-Apr-18 115.65
4-Apr-18 116.98
5-Apr-18 118.16
6-Apr-18 115.50
9-Apr-18 114.73
10-Apr-18 113.39
11-Apr-18 111.98
12-Apr-18 114.36
13-Apr-18 113.90
16-Apr-18 114.42
17-Apr-18 113.60
18-Apr-18 116.36
 Date DJIA
19-Apr-16 18054
20-Apr-16 18096 The closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for each
21-Apr-16 17983 trading day for a two period is provided in the excel file.
a. Using a period of 2, forecast the price of this index on the
22-Apr-16 18004 next trading day with the moving average method. How well
25-Apr-16 17977 does the moving average method with period of 2 forecast the
26-Apr-16 17990 known observation in this series?
b. Repeat part a with a period of 5; with a period of 15.
27-Apr-16 18042 c. Which of these three period appears to be most appropriate?
28-Apr-16 17831 Justify your choice.
29-Apr-16 17774
2-May-16 17891
3-May-16 17751
4-May-16 17651
5-May-16 17661
6-May-16 17741
9-May-16 17706
10-May-16 17928
11-May-16 17711
12-May-16 17721
13-May-16 17535
16-May-16 17711
17-May-16 17530
18-May-16 17527
19-May-16 17435
20-May-16 17501
23-May-16 17493
24-May-16 17706
25-May-16 17852
26-May-16 17828
27-May-16 17873
31-May-16 17787
1-Jun-16 17790
2-Jun-16 17839
 3-Jun-16 17807
6-Jun-16 17920
7-Jun-16 17938
8-Jun-16 18005
9-Jun-16 17985
10-Jun-16 17865
13-Jun-16 17732
14-Jun-16 17675
15-Jun-16 17640
16-Jun-16 17733
17-Jun-16 17675
20-Jun-16 17805
21-Jun-16 17830
22-Jun-16 17781
23-Jun-16 18011
24-Jun-16 17401
27-Jun-16 17140
28-Jun-16 17410
29-Jun-16 17695
30-Jun-16 17930
1-Jul-16 17949
5-Jul-16 17841
6-Jul-16 17919
7-Jul-16 17896
8-Jul-16 18147
11-Jul-16 18227
12-Jul-16 18348
13-Jul-16 18372
14-Jul-16 18506
15-Jul-16 18517
18-Jul-16 18533
19-Jul-16 18559
 20-Jul-16 18595
21-Jul-16 18517
22-Jul-16 18571
25-Jul-16 18493
26-Jul-16 18474
27-Jul-16 18472
28-Jul-16 18456
29-Jul-16 18432
1-Aug-16 18405
2-Aug-16 18314
3-Aug-16 18355
4-Aug-16 18352
5-Aug-16 18544
8-Aug-16 18529
9-Aug-16 18533
10-Aug-16 18496
11-Aug-16 18614
12-Aug-16 18576
15-Aug-16 18636
16-Aug-16 18552
17-Aug-16 18574
18-Aug-16 18598
19-Aug-16 18553
22-Aug-16 18529
23-Aug-16 18547
24-Aug-16 18481
25-Aug-16 18448
26-Aug-16 18395
29-Aug-16 18503
30-Aug-16 18454
31-Aug-16 18401
1-Sep-16 18419
 2-Sep-16 18492
6-Sep-16 18538
7-Sep-16 18526
8-Sep-16 18480
9-Sep-16 18085
12-Sep-16 18325
13-Sep-16 18067
14-Sep-16 18035
15-Sep-16 18212
16-Sep-16 18124
19-Sep-16 18120
20-Sep-16 18130
21-Sep-16 18294
22-Sep-16 18392
23-Sep-16 18261
26-Sep-16 18095
27-Sep-16 18228
28-Sep-16 18339
29-Sep-16 18143
30-Sep-16 18308
3-Oct-16 18254
4-Oct-16 18168
5-Oct-16 18281
6-Oct-16 18269
7-Oct-16 18240
10-Oct-16 18329
11-Oct-16 18129
12-Oct-16 18144
13-Oct-16 18099
14-Oct-16 18138
17-Oct-16 18086
18-Oct-16 18162
19-Oct-16 18203
20-Oct-16 18162
21-Oct-16 18146
24-Oct-16 18223
25-Oct-16 18169
26-Oct-16 18199
27-Oct-16 18170
28-Oct-16 18161
31-Oct-16 18142
1-Nov-16 18037
2-Nov-16 17960
3-Nov-16 17931
4-Nov-16 17888
7-Nov-16 18260
8-Nov-16 18333
9-Nov-16 18590
10-Nov-16 18808
11-Nov-16 18848
14-Nov-16 18869
15-Nov-16 18923
16-Nov-16 18868
17-Nov-16 18904
18-Nov-16 18868
21-Nov-16 18957
22-Nov-16 19024
23-Nov-16 19083
25-Nov-16 19152
28-Nov-16 19098
29-Nov-16 19122
30-Nov-16 19124
1-Dec-16 19192
2-Dec-16 19170
 5-Dec-16 19216
6-Dec-16 19252
7-Dec-16 19550
8-Dec-16 19615
9-Dec-16 19757
12-Dec-16 19796
13-Dec-16 19911
14-Dec-16 19793
15-Dec-16 19852
16-Dec-16 19843
19-Dec-16 19883
20-Dec-16 19975
21-Dec-16 19942
22-Dec-16 19919
23-Dec-16 19934
27-Dec-16 19945
28-Dec-16 19834
29-Dec-16 19820
30-Dec-16 19763
3-Jan-17 19882
4-Jan-17 19942
5-Jan-17 19899
6-Jan-17 19964
9-Jan-17 19887
10-Jan-17 19856
11-Jan-17 19954
12-Jan-17 19891
13-Jan-17 19886
17-Jan-17 19827
18-Jan-17 19805
19-Jan-17 19732
20-Jan-17 19827
23-Jan-17 19800
24-Jan-17 19913
25-Jan-17 20069
26-Jan-17 20101
27-Jan-17 20094
30-Jan-17 19971
31-Jan-17 19864
1-Feb-17 19891
2-Feb-17 19885
3-Feb-17 20071
6-Feb-17 20052
7-Feb-17 20090
8-Feb-17 20054
9-Feb-17 20172
10-Feb-17 20269
13-Feb-17 20412
14-Feb-17 20504
15-Feb-17 20612
16-Feb-17 20620
17-Feb-17 20624
21-Feb-17 20743
22-Feb-17 20776
23-Feb-17 20810
24-Feb-17 20822
27-Feb-17 20837
28-Feb-17 20812
1-Mar-17 21116
2-Mar-17 21003
3-Mar-17 21006
6-Mar-17 20954
7-Mar-17 20925
8-Mar-17 20856
 9-Mar-17 20858
10-Mar-17 20903
13-Mar-17 20881
14-Mar-17 20837
15-Mar-17 20950
16-Mar-17 20935
17-Mar-17 20915
20-Mar-17 20906
21-Mar-17 20668
22-Mar-17 20661
23-Mar-17 20657
24-Mar-17 20597
27-Mar-17 20551
28-Mar-17 20702
29-Mar-17 20659
30-Mar-17 20728
31-Mar-17 20663
3-Apr-17 20650
4-Apr-17 20689
5-Apr-17 20648
6-Apr-17 20663
7-Apr-17 20656
10-Apr-17 20658
11-Apr-17 20651
12-Apr-17 20592
13-Apr-17 20453
17-Apr-17 20637
18-Apr-17 20523
19-Apr-17 20404
20-Apr-17 20579
21-Apr-17 20548
24-Apr-17 20764
25-Apr-17 20996
26-Apr-17 20975
27-Apr-17 20981
28-Apr-17 20941
1-May-17 20913
2-May-17 20950
3-May-17 20958
4-May-17 20951
5-May-17 21007
8-May-17 21012
9-May-17 20976
10-May-17 20943
11-May-17 20919
12-May-17 20897
15-May-17 20982
16-May-17 20980
17-May-17 20607
18-May-17 20663
19-May-17 20805
22-May-17 20895
23-May-17 20938
24-May-17 21012
25-May-17 21083
26-May-17 21080
30-May-17 21029
31-May-17 21009
1-Jun-17 21144
2-Jun-17 21206
5-Jun-17 21184
6-Jun-17 21136
7-Jun-17 21174
8-Jun-17 21183
 9-Jun-17 21272
12-Jun-17 21236
13-Jun-17 21328
14-Jun-17 21375
15-Jun-17 21360
16-Jun-17 21384
19-Jun-17 21529
20-Jun-17 21467
21-Jun-17 21410
22-Jun-17 21397
23-Jun-17 21395
26-Jun-17 21410
27-Jun-17 21311
28-Jun-17 21455
29-Jun-17 21287
30-Jun-17 21350
3-Jul-17 21479
5-Jul-17 21478
6-Jul-17 21320
7-Jul-17 21414
10-Jul-17 21409
11-Jul-17 21409
12-Jul-17 21532
13-Jul-17 21553
14-Jul-17 21638
17-Jul-17 21630
18-Jul-17 21575
19-Jul-17 21641
20-Jul-17 21612
21-Jul-17 21580
24-Jul-17 21513
25-Jul-17 21613
 26-Jul-17 21711
27-Jul-17 21797
28-Jul-17 21830
31-Jul-17 21891
1-Aug-17 21964
2-Aug-17 22016
3-Aug-17 22026
4-Aug-17 22093
7-Aug-17 22118
8-Aug-17 22085
9-Aug-17 22049
10-Aug-17 21844
11-Aug-17 21858
14-Aug-17 21994
15-Aug-17 21999
16-Aug-17 22025
17-Aug-17 21751
18-Aug-17 21675
21-Aug-17 21704
22-Aug-17 21900
23-Aug-17 21812
24-Aug-17 21783
25-Aug-17 21814
28-Aug-17 21808
29-Aug-17 21865
30-Aug-17 21892
31-Aug-17 21948
1-Sep-17 21988
5-Sep-17 21753
6-Sep-17 21808
7-Sep-17 21785
8-Sep-17 21798
11-Sep-17 22057
12-Sep-17 22119
13-Sep-17 22158
14-Sep-17 22203
15-Sep-17 22268
18-Sep-17 22331
19-Sep-17 22371
20-Sep-17 22413
21-Sep-17 22359
22-Sep-17 22350
25-Sep-17 22296
26-Sep-17 22284
27-Sep-17 22341
28-Sep-17 22381
29-Sep-17 22405
2-Oct-17 22558
3-Oct-17 22642
4-Oct-17 22662
5-Oct-17 22775
6-Oct-17 22774
9-Oct-17 22761
10-Oct-17 22831
11-Oct-17 22873
12-Oct-17 22841
13-Oct-17 22872
16-Oct-17 22957
17-Oct-17 22997
18-Oct-17 23158
19-Oct-17 23163
20-Oct-17 23329
23-Oct-17 23274
24-Oct-17 23442
25-Oct-17 23329
26-Oct-17 23401
27-Oct-17 23434
30-Oct-17 23349
31-Oct-17 23377
1-Nov-17 23435
2-Nov-17 23516
3-Nov-17 23539
6-Nov-17 23548
7-Nov-17 23557
8-Nov-17 23563
9-Nov-17 23462
10-Nov-17 23422
13-Nov-17 23440
14-Nov-17 23409
15-Nov-17 23271
16-Nov-17 23458
17-Nov-17 23358
20-Nov-17 23430
21-Nov-17 23591
22-Nov-17 23526
24-Nov-17 23558
27-Nov-17 23581
28-Nov-17 23837
29-Nov-17 23941
30-Nov-17 24272
1-Dec-17 24232
4-Dec-17 24290
5-Dec-17 24181
6-Dec-17 24141
7-Dec-17 24211
8-Dec-17 24329
11-Dec-17 24386
12-Dec-17 24505
13-Dec-17 24585
14-Dec-17 24509
15-Dec-17 24652
18-Dec-17 24792
19-Dec-17 24755
20-Dec-17 24727
21-Dec-17 24782
22-Dec-17 24754
26-Dec-17 24746
27-Dec-17 24774
28-Dec-17 24838
29-Dec-17 24719
2-Jan-18 24824
3-Jan-18 24923
4-Jan-18 25075
5-Jan-18 25296
8-Jan-18 25283
9-Jan-18 25386
10-Jan-18 25369
11-Jan-18 25575
12-Jan-18 25803
16-Jan-18 25793
17-Jan-18 26116
18-Jan-18 26018
19-Jan-18 26072
22-Jan-18 26215
23-Jan-18 26211
24-Jan-18 26252
25-Jan-18 26393
26-Jan-18 26617
29-Jan-18 26439
30-Jan-18 26077
31-Jan-18 26149
1-Feb-18 26187
2-Feb-18 25521
5-Feb-18 24346
6-Feb-18 24913
7-Feb-18 24893
8-Feb-18 23860
9-Feb-18 24191
12-Feb-18 24601
13-Feb-18 24640
14-Feb-18 24893
15-Feb-18 25200
16-Feb-18 25219
20-Feb-18 24965
21-Feb-18 24798
22-Feb-18 24962
23-Feb-18 25310
26-Feb-18 25709
27-Feb-18 25410
28-Feb-18 25029
1-Mar-18 24609
2-Mar-18 24538
5-Mar-18 24875
6-Mar-18 24884
7-Mar-18 24801
8-Mar-18 24895
9-Mar-18 25336
12-Mar-18 25179
13-Mar-18 25007
14-Mar-18 24758
15-Mar-18 24874
16-Mar-18 24947
19-Mar-18 24611
20-Mar-18 24727
21-Mar-18 24682
22-Mar-18 23958
23-Mar-18 23533
26-Mar-18 24203
27-Mar-18 23858
28-Mar-18 23848
29-Mar-18 24103
2-Apr-18 23644
3-Apr-18 24033
4-Apr-18 24264
5-Apr-18 24505
6-Apr-18 23933
9-Apr-18 23979
10-Apr-18 24408
11-Apr-18 24189
12-Apr-18 24483
13-Apr-18 24360
16-Apr-18 24573
17-Apr-18 24787
18-Apr-18 24748
Year Revenue
1990 143.16
1991 156.36 The excel file contains the annual revenues for a covenience
1992 151.36 store. If you want to forecast revenue for the next few years
with the moving average method. What period should you
1993 158.56 use? Will any period work well?
1994 149.20
1995 171.92
1996 159.24
1997 180.60
1998 159.72
1999 194.20
2000 169.20
2001 230.80
2002 258.28
2003 228.52
2004 274.48
2005 284.16
2006 262.32
2007 313.48
2008 270.84
2009 338.04
2010 399.00
2011 395.00
2012 358.20
2013 456.40
2014 359.68
2015 415.44
2016 508.08
Month Revenue
1 10767
2 8908 The excel file contains monthly revenues or a company over a
3 8549 four year period. Use the moving average method to forecast
this company's revenue for the 12 months. What period
4 11316 seems to work best.
5 17667
6 11998
7 10800
8 11639
9 11422
10 6755
11 8921
12 13260
13 15547
14 11433
15 13704
16 11267
17 14283
18 13345
19 14521
20 15648
21 15174
22 22889
23 13025
24 12489
25 14697
26 17855
27 20704
28 18481
29 18335
30 18816
31 14235
32 19286
33 13917
34 19494
35 22090
36 21431
37 23040
38 23066
39 17850
40 19640
41 19790
42 22196
43 19979
44 19223
45 21329
46 18532
47 20682
48 24503
 Month Seasonally Adjusted Sales Seasonal Index Total Retail Sales
Jan-1992 146,913 0.893 131,193 Each value is expressed
Feb-1992 147,270 0.891 131,218 in millions of dollars.
Mar-1992 146,831 0.972 142,720
This excel file contains total m
Apr-1992 148,082 0.994 147,194 method of moving averages
May-1992 149,015 1.023 152,442 to forecast U.S. Retail sales fo
Jun-1992 149,821 1.016 152,218 performance of your model.
challenging to forecast?
Jul-1992 150,809 1.013 152,770
Aug-1992 151,064 1.011 152,726
Sep-1992 152,595 0.971 148,170
Oct-1992 153,577 1.016 156,034
Nov-1992 153,605 1.006 154,527
Dec-1992 155,504 1.226 190,648
Jan-1993 157,525 0.874 137,677
Feb-1993 156,292 0.860 134,411
Mar-1993 154,774 0.988 152,917
Apr-1993 158,996 0.996 158,360
May-1993 160,624 1.019 163,676
Jun-1993 160,171 1.018 163,054
Jul-1993 162,832 1.011 164,623
Aug-1993 162,491 1.011 164,278
Sep-1993 163,285 0.977 159,529
Oct-1993 164,711 0.995 163,887
Nov-1993 166,593 1.019 169,758
Dec-1993 168,101 1.230 206,764
Jan-1994 167,504 0.870 145,728
Feb-1994 169,652 0.861 146,070
Mar-1994 172,775 0.996 172,084
Apr-1994 173,099 0.989 171,195
May-1994 172,340 1.019 175,614
Jun-1994 174,307 1.025 178,665
Jul-1994 174,801 0.992 173,403
Aug-1994 177,289 1.028 182,253
Sep-1994 178,776 0.980 175,200
Oct-1994 180,569 0.990 178,763
Nov-1994 180,695 1.019 184,128
Dec-1994 181,492 1.224 222,146
Jan-1995 182,423 0.869 158,526
Feb-1995 179,472 0.864 155,064
Mar-1995 180,996 1.004 181,720
Apr-1995 181,702 0.970 176,251
May-1995 183,543 1.037 190,334
Jun-1995 186,088 1.029 191,485
Jul-1995 185,470 0.987 183,059
Aug-1995 186,814 1.035 193,352
Sep-1995 187,338 0.973 182,280
Oct-1995 186,546 0.988 184,307
Nov-1995 189,052 1.023 193,400
Dec-1995 190,809 1.194 227,826
Jan-1996 189,167 0.883 167,034
Feb-1996 192,269 0.904 173,811
Mar-1996 193,993 0.986 191,277
Apr-1996 194,712 0.983 191,402
May-1996 196,210 1.050 206,021
Jun-1996 196,127 1.006 197,304
Jul-1996 196,229 1.003 196,818
Aug-1996 196,215 1.040 204,064
Sep-1996 198,843 0.954 189,696
Oct-1996 200,488 1.006 201,691
Nov-1996 200,200 1.017 203,603
Dec-1996 201,191 1.182 237,808
Jan-1997 202,414 0.893 180,756
Feb-1997 204,273 0.872 178,126
Mar-1997 204,965 0.986 202,095
Apr-1997 203,372 0.984 200,118
May-1997 201,676 1.051 211,961
Jun-1997 204,666 1.007 206,099
Jul-1997 207,049 1.008 208,705
Aug-1997 207,643 1.020 211,796
Sep-1997 208,298 0.966 201,216
Oct-1997 208,064 1.008 209,729
Nov-1997 208,982 0.994 207,728
Dec-1997 209,379 1.195 250,208
Jan-1998 209,684 0.894 187,457
Feb-1998 209,532 0.877 183,760
Mar-1998 210,792 0.989 208,473
Apr-1998 213,623 0.991 211,700
May-1998 214,619 1.031 221,272
Jun-1998 216,324 1.020 220,650
Jul-1998 214,853 1.013 217,646
Aug-1998 213,669 1.016 217,088
Sep-1998 215,712 0.967 208,594
Oct-1998 219,465 1.004 220,343
Nov-1998 221,150 0.991 219,160
Dec-1998 223,226 1.198 267,425
Jan-1999 224,020 0.878 196,690
Feb-1999 226,240 0.881 199,317
Mar-1999 227,407 1.007 228,999
Apr-1999 228,978 0.995 227,833
May-1999 231,238 1.027 237,481
Jun-1999 231,926 1.021 236,796
Jul-1999 233,933 1.012 236,740
Aug-1999 236,589 1.016 240,374
Sep-1999 237,516 0.971 230,628
Oct-1999 237,560 0.982 233,284
Nov-1999 240,462 1.003 241,183
Dec-1999 245,498 1.200 294,598
Jan-2000 243,483 0.877 213,535
Feb-2000 247,133 0.915 226,127
Mar-2000 249,847 1.019 254,594
Apr-2000 245,789 0.973 239,153
May-2000 246,225 1.042 256,566
Jun-2000 248,178 1.028 255,127
Jul-2000 247,184 0.990 244,712
Aug-2000 247,601 1.040 257,505
Sep-2000 251,812 0.967 243,502
Oct-2000 251,267 0.975 244,985
Nov-2000 250,225 1.009 252,477
Dec-2000 250,603 1.172 293,707
Jan-2001 252,736 0.892 225,441
Feb-2001 252,730 0.883 223,161
Mar-2001 250,346 1.019 255,103
Apr-2001 254,759 0.974 248,135
May-2001 255,262 1.048 267,515
Jun-2001 254,020 1.021 259,354
Jul-2001 253,015 0.993 251,244
Aug-2001 254,570 1.046 266,280
Sep-2001 249,856 0.950 237,363
Oct-2001 268,072 0.988 264,855
Nov-2001 260,363 1.010 262,967
Dec-2001 256,552 1.165 298,883
Jan-2002 256,376 0.900 230,738
Feb-2002 257,677 0.883 227,529
Mar-2002 257,060 0.999 256,803
Apr-2002 261,320 0.989 258,445
May-2002 257,616 1.052 271,012
Jun-2002 259,815 1.002 260,335
Jul-2002 262,811 1.011 265,702
Aug-2002 264,975 1.046 277,164
Sep-2002 260,650 0.948 247,096
Oct-2002 262,011 0.993 260,177
Nov-2002 263,559 1.003 264,350
Dec-2002 265,802 1.162 308,862
Jan-2003 267,276 0.905 241,885
Feb-2003 263,199 0.882 232,142
Mar-2003 267,842 0.994 266,235
Apr-2003 267,240 0.992 265,102
May-2003 267,347 1.052 281,249
Jun-2003 270,432 1.001 270,702
Jul-2003 273,393 1.021 279,134
Aug-2003 277,901 1.027 285,404
Sep-2003 276,413 0.960 265,356
Oct-2003 274,779 0.996 273,680
Nov-2003 278,322 0.983 273,591
Dec-2003 277,567 1.178 326,974
Jan-2004 278,884 0.905 252,390
Feb-2004 280,966 0.901 253,150
Mar-2004 286,232 1.009 288,808
Apr-2004 282,971 1.001 283,254
May-2004 288,250 1.029 296,609
Jun-2004 284,146 1.017 288,976
Jul-2004 287,341 1.027 295,099
Aug-2004 287,909 1.022 294,243
Sep-2004 293,177 0.966 283,209
Oct-2004 295,055 0.973 287,089
Nov-2004 296,178 0.994 294,401
Dec-2004 299,766 1.188 356,122
Jan-2005 297,728 0.885 263,489
Feb-2005 299,986 0.882 264,588
Mar-2005 299,958 1.016 304,757
Apr-2005 304,710 0.996 303,491
May-2005 301,572 1.031 310,921
Jun-2005 311,171 1.023 318,328
Jul-2005 314,562 1.007 316,764
Aug-2005 309,404 1.036 320,543
Sep-2005 310,084 0.968 300,161
Oct-2005 311,034 0.968 301,081
Nov-2005 313,282 0.995 311,716
Dec-2005 313,107 1.185 371,032
Jan-2006 322,795 0.887 286,319
Feb-2006 319,887 0.884 282,780
Mar-2006 321,428 1.021 328,178
Apr-2006 322,769 0.978 315,668
May-2006 321,283 1.049 337,026
Jun-2006 322,795 1.027 331,510
Jul-2006 325,038 1.002 325,688
Aug-2006 324,913 1.040 337,910
Sep-2006 323,029 0.961 310,431
Oct-2006 322,747 0.966 311,774
Nov-2006 323,367 1.002 324,014
Dec-2006 327,600 1.160 380,016
Jan-2007 326,922 0.903 295,211
Feb-2007 327,893 0.885 290,185
Mar-2007 330,819 1.022 338,097
Apr-2007 329,256 0.977 321,683
May-2007 333,889 1.056 352,587
Jun-2007 331,164 1.021 338,118
Jul-2007 332,620 1.000 332,620
Aug-2007 333,824 1.041 347,511
Sep-2007 336,431 0.942 316,918
Oct-2007 337,090 0.980 330,348
Nov-2007 340,383 1.006 342,425
Dec-2007 336,829 1.155 389,037
Jan-2008 337,274 0.912 307,594
Feb-2008 334,469 0.923 308,715
Mar-2008 334,559 1.000 334,559
Apr-2008 336,101 0.993 333,748
May-2008 337,383 1.058 356,951
Jun-2008 338,832 1.002 339,510
Jul-2008 336,771 1.020 343,506
Aug-2008 334,481 1.017 340,167
Sep-2008 327,779 0.953 312,373
Oct-2008 314,828 0.989 311,365
Nov-2008 302,285 0.986 298,053
Dec-2008 293,959 1.169 343,638
Jan-2009 298,565 0.917 273,784
Feb-2009 297,933 0.889 264,862
Mar-2009 292,857 1.002 293,443
Apr-2009 293,419 1.000 293,419
May-2009 297,060 1.037 308,051
Jun-2009 301,671 1.013 305,593
Jul-2009 302,901 1.020 308,959
Aug-2009 309,581 1.011 312,986
Sep-2009 301,199 0.955 287,645
Oct-2009 303,962 0.988 300,314
Nov-2009 307,190 0.987 303,197
Dec-2009 308,501 1.174 362,180
Jan-2010 309,140 0.901 278,535
Feb-2010 308,807 0.892 275,456
Mar-2010 316,242 1.021 322,883
Apr-2010 318,115 1.004 319,387
May-2010 315,985 1.030 325,465
Jun-2010 315,379 1.013 319,479
Jul-2010 315,716 1.017 321,083
Aug-2010 317,501 1.010 320,676
Sep-2010 320,346 0.961 307,853
Oct-2010 324,941 0.970 315,193
Nov-2010 327,271 1.003 328,253
Dec-2010 329,974 1.176 388,049
Jan-2011 332,752 0.896 298,146
Feb-2011 334,679 0.893 298,868
Mar-2011 338,207 1.030 348,353
Apr-2011 339,991 1.000 339,991
May-2011 339,664 1.028 349,175
Jun-2011 341,859 1.017 347,671
Jul-2011 342,554 0.996 341,184
Aug-2011 342,093 1.027 351,330
Sep-2011 345,332 0.965 333,245
Oct-2011 348,631 0.967 337,126
Nov-2011 349,723 1.006 351,821
Dec-2011 349,714 1.173 410,215
Jan-2012 352,598 0.893 314,870
Feb-2012 357,278 0.927 331,197
Mar-2012 359,189 1.033 371,042
Apr-2012 356,541 0.983 350,480
May-2012 356,256 1.049 373,713
Jun-2012 352,397 1.012 356,626
Jul-2012 354,292 0.991 351,103
Aug-2012 358,479 1.040 372,818
Sep-2012 362,886 0.945 342,927
Oct-2012 362,014 0.983 355,860
Nov-2012 363,393 1.017 369,571
Dec-2012 365,669 1.143 417,960
Jan-2013 367,676 0.908 333,850
Feb-2013 372,573 0.893 332,708
Mar-2013 369,575 1.012 374,010
Apr-2013 368,614 0.996 367,140
May-2013 370,671 1.054 390,687
Jun-2013 372,894 0.994 370,657
Jul-2013 374,280 1.007 376,900
Aug-2013 372,768 1.041 388,051
Sep-2013 373,610 0.946 353,435
Oct-2013 374,196 0.990 370,454
Nov-2013 374,691 1.012 379,187
Dec-2013 377,425 1.142 431,019
Jan-2014 373,079 0.909 339,129
Feb-2014 377,749 0.892 336,952
Mar-2014 382,663 1.005 384,576
Apr-2014 386,533 0.991 383,054
May-2014 386,798 1.054 407,685
Jun-2014 387,342 0.994 385,018
Jul-2014 387,623 1.017 394,213
Aug-2014 391,162 1.023 400,159
Sep-2014 389,808 0.960 374,216
Oct-2014 390,708 0.995 388,754
Nov-2014 392,405 0.997 391,228
Dec-2014 388,894 1.161 451,506
Jan-2015 385,630 0.905 348,995
Feb-2015 383,816 0.889 341,212
Mar-2015 391,247 1.002 392,029
Apr-2015 390,624 0.994 388,280
May-2015 394,564 1.036 408,768
Jun-2015 394,465 1.009 398,015
Jul-2015 397,256 1.023 406,393
Aug-2015 397,197 1.019 404,744
Sep-2015 397,083 0.963 382,391
Oct-2015 395,853 0.994 393,478
Nov-2015 397,463 0.997 396,271
Dec-2015 398,762 1.169 466,153
Jan-2016 395,246 0.888 350,978
Feb-2016 396,930 0.918 364,382
Mar-2016 397,086 1.021 405,425
Apr-2016 399,739 0.993 396,941
May-2016 401,076 1.032 413,910
Jun-2016 405,580 1.015 411,664
Jul-2016 404,835 1.005 406,859
Aug-2016 404,897 1.031 417,449
Sep-2016 407,368 0.973 396,369
Oct-2016 410,517 0.973 399,433
Nov-2016 409,616 1.017 416,579
Dec-2016 413,796 1.176 486,624
Jan-2017 417,645 0.885 369,616
Feb-2017 416,377 0.884 368,077
Mar-2017 417,044 1.024 427,053
Apr-2017 418,413 0.977 408,790
May-2017 418,381 1.046 437,627
Jun-2017 418,025 1.020 426,386
Jul-2017 420,258 0.999 419,838
Aug-2017 419,882 1.036 434,998
Sep-2017 429,623 0.967 415,445
Oct-2017 432,584 0.973 420,904
Nov-2017 436,032 1.023 446,061
Dec-2017 435,315 1.155 502,789
This excel file contains total monthly U.S reatil sales data. Use the
method of moving averages with one or more period of your choice
to forecast U.S. Retail sales for next 12 months. Comment on the
performance of your model. What makes this time series more
challenging to forecast?