Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

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Applied Mathematics and Computation

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/amc

A mathematical model approach for tobacco control in China

Liuyong Pang a,b,⇑, Zhong Zhao b, Sanhong Liu a, Xinan Zhang a
a
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei, PR China
b
Department of Mathematics, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian, Henan, PR China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: As a tobacco victimized country in the world, China is being burdened by smoking-related
Controlling smoking illnesses. This paper concentrates on the problem of controlling smoking in China. We
Saturated incidence rate propose a mathematical model described by ordinary differential equations with a
Global stability saturated incidence rate to explore the effect of controlling smoking by setting up designed
Sensitivity analysis
smoking areas and raising the price of cigarettes. The sufficient criteria for the local and
Numerical simulations
global stabilities of the equilibria are obtained. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is per-
formed to gain insight into which factors are the most important in controlling smoking.
Lastly, we carry out numerical simulations to illustrate and verify the analytic conclusions,
and provide a control measure.
Ó 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

According to the report of the World Health Organization (WHO) on the global tobacco epidemic [1], smoking kills or dis-
ables a considerable number of people in their most productive years. Tobacco use is a known cause of deaths for cancers of
lung, oral cavity, stomach, and a probable cause of deaths for cancers of larynx, bladder, pancreas, renal pelvis and cervix.
Comparative smoking facts show that the risk of heart attack of smokers is 70% higher than that of non-smokers [2]. The
incidence of lung cancer of smokers is ten times greater than that of non-smokers and one out of ten smokers will die with
lung cancer. In Spain, it is estimated that around 55,000 deaths each year are attributable to smoking [3]. However, smoking-
related diseases are caused over 440,000 deaths in the US annually and over 105,000 deaths in UK annually. Moreover about
4 millions people die from smoking-related diseases in the world and half of all smokers die from smoking-related diseases,
but the number of new smokers continues to increase.
China confronts a daunting challenge in controlling smoking. The country grows more tobacco, produces more cigarettes,
makes more profits, and has more smokers than any other country in the world. According to the Global Adult Tobacco
Survey conducted in 2010 [4], there had been over 300 million smokers in China. By 2030 [5], China will suffer 3.5 million
deaths annually due to tobacco use. China has recently taken some important decisions to stop tobacco use. For example, the
Ministry of Health promulgated a policy that forbids smoking in indoor public places and allows only in smoking areas [6].
Smoking causes the smokers both the health and the social-economic issues. Therefore, it is very vital and significant to
study the dynamic properties of smokers so that we can take more effective strategies to control and combat this habit.
Mathematical modeling of smoking has been discussed by many scholars [1–3,7–13]. Rowe [11] has used the methods of
studying infectious diseases to analyze the smoking phenomenon. In addition, he thought that the influence of smokers on
potential smokers is an important factor which makes the potential smokers become smokers gradually. Castillo-Garson

⇑ Corresponding author at: Department of Mathematics, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian, Henan, PR China.
E-mail address: pangliuyong@163.com (L. Pang).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2015.02.078
0096-3003/Ó 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
498 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

et al. [12] and Sharomi et al. [13] have proposed two simple mathematical models with standardized incidence rate and a
constant population size to investigate the dynamics properties of smokers, respectively. Lahrouz et al. [1] have presented a
four-dimensional ordinary differential equations model with bilinear incidence rate to study the smoking behavior. Zeb et al.
[2] have studied a model of giving up smoking with square-root incidence rate. However, no one has taken into account the
effect of controlling smoking by setting up designed smoking areas in public places and increasing the price of cigarettes,
which is precisely our purpose in this paper. Hence, we put forward a model of ordinary differential equations with saturated
incidence rate to investigate the effect of controlling smoking in China. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to
find out which methods are the most effective in controlling smoking.
The rest of paper is organized as follows. A new model of ordinary differential equations is constructed to describe the
smoking phenomenon in Section 2. The sufficient criteria for the local stabilities of the equilibria are obtained in
Section 3. The global stabilities of the equilibria are considered in Section 4. In particular, the approach proposed in [14–
17] is applied to demonstrate the global stability of the positive equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations
are carried out in Section 5. Finally, the conclusions are summarized in Section 6.

2. Construction of the mathematical model

In this section, we present a mathematical model to describe the smoking phenomenon. We divide the total population
into four sub-populations: potential smokers, i.e., people who do not smoke yet but might become smokers in the future,
smokers, temporary quitters who have quitted smoking temporarily and permanent quitters who have quitted smoking
permanently, with sizes denoted by PðtÞ, SðtÞ, Q t ðtÞ and Q p ðtÞ, respectively. In order to facilitate research, we make the
following three assumptions:

(1) Assume that every smoker must go to a designed smoking area, the impact of smokers who gather in a designed area
to potential smokers is the same as that of a separate smoker.
(2) h is the contact rate and q denotes the probability of becoming a smoker for a potential smoker due to contacting with
a smoker. q is a function with respect to pr (where pr represents the price of cigarettes) and is denoted by q ¼ qðprÞ.
We call b ¼ hq as the effective contact rate.
(3) We take a saturated incidence rate bSðtÞPðtÞ
1þmSðtÞ
to describe the crowding effect of smokers in designed smoking areas and do
SðtÞ
not consider the difference of designed smoking areas, where 1þmSðtÞ
denotes the number of smoking areas at time t.
SðtÞ 1
Since the number of smokers SðtÞ is much larger than 1 when t is not too large, 1þmSðtÞ
¼ 1=SðtÞþm  m1 . Hence, 1=m is
the approximate number of designed smoking areas and m 2 ð0; 1Þ is an approximate proportion of smokers
distributed averagely in each designed smoking area.

The biological meaning of all parameters are shown in Table 1. Hence, the number of potential smokers is enhanced by
the recruitment of individuals into the potential smokers subpopulation at a constant rate K. However, potential smokers
can become smokers via effective ‘‘contact’’ with smokers [13]. This transition is denoted by the term bSðtÞPðtÞ
1þmSðtÞ
. The population
of smokers is increased when potential smokers begin to smoke and when temporary quitters revert to smoking at a rate a.
However, the number of smokers is decreased when smokers quit smoking at a rate c. The number of temporary quitters is
boosted by a fraction, 1  d, of smokers quit smoking at the rate c and is reduced by reversion to smoking at the rate a. The
population of smokers who quit smoking permanently is generated by the remaining fraction, d, of smokers who quit smok-
ing at the rate c. Furthermore, the natural death rate of all of the subpopulations is l, and the mortality due to the diseases
caused by smoking is not considered. It follows from the above analysis that flowchart of model is depicted in Fig. 1. The
transfer diagram leads to the following model:

Table 1
The meanings and estimated values of the parameters.

Parameter Description Value Source

l The mortality rate 4  105 China’s health ministry
c The ratio of smokers who quit smoking 2:74  104 Estimated
a The ratio of temporal quitters who start to smoke again 0.0014 Estimated
h The contact rate 8.2192 O. Sharomi in [13]
K The recruitment rate 0.250 Estimated
d The ratio of quitters who quit smoking permanently 0.800 Estimated
m The proportion of smokers distributed in each smoking area 0.001 Estimated
k A positive constant 680.00 Estimated
 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509 499

Fig. 1. Flowchart of system (2.1).

8 bSP
>
>
dP
¼ K  lP  1þmS ;
> dt
>
>
< dS ¼ bSP þ aQ t  ðl þ cÞS;
dt 1þmS
ð2:1Þ
>
>
dQ t
¼ cð1  dÞS  ðl þ aÞQ t ;
>
> dt
>
: dQ p
dt
¼ cdS  lQ t :

Thus, the total population size is given by NðtÞ ¼ PðtÞ þ SðtÞ þ Q t ðtÞ þ Q p ðtÞ at time t. Adding four equations of system
(2.1), we can get
dN
¼ K  lN;
dt
which yields that
K
lim NðtÞ ¼ :
t!1 l
Therefore, the biologically feasible region X ¼ fðP; S; Q t ; Q p Þ 2 R4þ : P þ S þ Q t þ Q p 6 Klg is a positively invariant set of system
(2.1). Hence, we consider solutions with initial conditions inside the region X, in which the usual existence, uniqueness of
solutions and continuation results hold.
Since the first three equations in system (2.1) are independent of the variable Q p , it is sufficient to consider the following
reduced system:
8 bSP
>
>
dP
¼ K  lP  1þmS ;
< dt
bSP
>
dS
dt
¼ 1þmS
þ aQ t  ð l þ cÞS; ð2:2Þ
>
: dQ t
dt
¼ cð1  dÞS  ðl þ aÞQ t :

3. Local stabilities of the equilibria

In this section, the basic reproductive number of system (2.2) will be calculated. The existence and local stabilities of the
equilibria of system (2.2) will be analyzed.
Apparently, system (2.2) always has one smoking-free equilibrium E0 ðKl ; 0; 0Þ. Now we calculate the basic reproductive
number of system (2.2) [18]. Let X ¼ ½S; Q t ; PT , system (2.2) can be written as
dX
¼ F ðX Þ  VðX Þ;
dt
where
2 3 2 3
bSP
1þmS
ðl þ rÞS  aQ t
6 7 6 ðl þ aÞQ  rð1  dÞS 7
F ðX Þ ¼ 4 0 5; VðX Þ ¼ 4 t 5:
bSP
0 lP þ 1þmS K

A straightforward calculation yields

" #  
bK
l 0 lþr a
FðXÞ ¼ ; VðXÞ ¼ :
0 0 rð1  dÞ lþa
We have
 
1 lþa a
V 1 ðXÞ ¼ :
lðl þ a þ rÞ þ rda rð1  dÞa1 a3 lþr
500 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

Hence, the spectral radius of the next generation matrix FV 1 is

ðl þ aÞbK
R0 ¼
l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
as found in [18]. In order to facilitate the following discussion, we bring forward a proposition.

Proposition 3.1. If R0 > 1, then system (2.2) exists a unique positive equilibrium, i.e., the smoking-present equilibrium
E ðP ; S ; Q t Þ, where P ¼ ðmKþðllÞðlþaÞþcðlþadÞ
þaÞðbþmlÞ , S ¼ lbþm
ðR0 1Þ  lcð1dÞðR0 1Þ
l , Q t ¼ ðlþaÞðbþmlÞ .

Proof. Letting the right side equations of system (2.2) be equal to zero, we have
8 bSP
< K  lP  1þmS ¼ 0;
>
bSP
þ aQ t  ðl þ cÞS ¼ 0; ð3:1Þ
>
: 1þmS
cð1  dÞS  ðl þ aÞQ t ¼ 0:
From the third equation of (3.1), we get that Q t ¼ cð1dÞ
lþa S when S – 0. Plugging Q t into the second equation of (3.1), we have

bP lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
¼ : ð3:2Þ
1 þ mS lþa
Substituting (3.2) into the first equation of (3.1), we get

ðl þ aÞbK  l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad ðlm þ bÞ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad

f ðSÞ ¼  S
ðl þ aÞb ðl þ aÞb
l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cadðR0  1Þ ðlm þ bÞ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
¼  S
ðl þ aÞb ðl þ aÞb
¼ 0:

f ðSÞ is a monotonically decreasing function, and notice that

8
< f ðKÞ ¼  l½lðlþaþcÞþcadðlþmKÞþcbKðlþKÞ < 0 and
l lðlþaÞb
: f ð0Þ ¼ l½lðlþaþcÞþcadðR0 1Þ > 0
ðlþaÞb

when R0 > 1. Hence, by the zero point theorem, the equation f ðSÞ ¼ 0 has a unique positive root. Therefore, the smoking-present
equilibrium of system (2.2) is give by
 
ðmK þ lÞðl þ aÞ þ cðl þ adÞ lðR0  1Þ lcð1  dÞðR0  1Þ
E ðP  ; S ; Q t Þ ¼ ; ; :
ðl þ aÞðb þ mlÞ b þ ml ðl þ aÞðb þ mlÞ

Since f ð0Þ ¼ l½lðlþaþðlcþÞþaca

Þb
dðR0 1Þ
 0 when R0 < 1, the equation f ðSÞ ¼ 0 does not exist positive root. h

Theorem 3.1. The smoking-free equilibrium E0 is locally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and unstable if R0 > 1.

Proof. The Jacobian Matrix at E0 of system (2.2) is

2 3
l  blK 0
6 7
JðE0 Þ ¼ 6
4 0
bK
 ðl þ cÞ a 7;
5
l
0 cð1  dÞ ðl þ aÞ
whose characteristic equation is given by
  
bK
ðk þ lÞ k þ ðl þ cÞ  ½k þ ðl þ aÞ  acð1  dÞ ¼ 0:
l
Apparently, we have k1 ¼ l < 0. Next, we consider the equation
 
bK
k þ ðl þ cÞ  ½k þ ðl þ aÞ  acð1  dÞ ¼ k2 þ a1 k þ a2 ¼ 0;
l
where
 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509 501

 
bK
a1 ¼ ðl þ cÞ  þlþa
l
 
lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad bK lþa
¼ ðl þ c þ aÞ þ l 
lþa l lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
 
lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad ðl þ aÞ½ðl þ a þ cÞ þ l
¼  R0
lþa lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
> ð1  R0 Þ;
lþa
 
bK
a2 ¼ ðl þ aÞ l þ c   acð1  dÞ
l
bK
¼ lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad  ðl þ aÞ
l
¼ ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cadð1  R0 Þ:

It follows from a1 > 0 and a2 > 0 (when R0 < 1) that the smoking-free equilibrium E0 is locally asymptotically stable. If
R0 > 1, then a2 < 0, which implies that the smoking-free equilibrium E0 is unstable. h

Theorem 3.2. The smoking-present equilibrium E ðP ; S ; Q t Þ is locally asymptotically stable If R0 > 1.

Proof. The Jacobian Matrix at E of system (2.2) is

2 bS bP 
3
l  1þmS  ð1þmS 2 0
 Þ
6 7
JðE Þ ¼ 6
4
bS bP
 ðl þ cÞ a 7
5
1þmS ð1þmS Þ2

0 cð1  dÞ ðl þ aÞ:

The characteristic equation of JðE Þ is

k3 þ A1 k2 þ A2 k þ A3 ¼ 0;

where

bS bP
A1 ¼ ðl þ aÞ þ l þ þ ðl þ c Þ 
1 þ mS ð1 þ mS Þ2
bS ðl þ aÞðl þ cÞmS þ cað1  dÞ
¼ 2l þ a þ þ ;
1 þ mS ðl þ aÞð1 þ mS Þ
cað1  dÞ bS ðl þ cÞmS
¼ 2l þ a þ þ þ ;
ðl þ aÞð1 þ mS Þ 1 þ mS ð1 þ mS Þ
 
bS bP bS
A2 ¼ ðl þ aÞ l þ þ ð2l þ aÞ½ðl þ cÞ    acð1  dÞ þ ðl þ cÞ
1 þ mS ð1 þ mS Þ2 1 þ mS
lcað1  dÞ bS ½lð2l þ a þ 2cÞ þ acdmS
¼ lðl þ aÞ þ þ ð2l þ c þ aÞ þ ;
ðl þ aÞð1 þ mS Þ 1 þ mS 1 þ mS
"   #  
lbP bS bS
A3 ¼ ðl þ aÞ  þ lþ ðl þ cÞ  acð1  dÞ l þ
ð1 þ mS Þ2 1 þ mS 1 þ mS
l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ acdmS
½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ acdbS
¼ þ ;
1 þ mS 1 þ mS
lcað1  dÞð3l þ 2aÞ bS
A1 A2  A3 ¼ lð2l þ aÞðl þ aÞ þ þ ½lð4l2 þ 4a þ cÞ þ a2 þ acð1  dÞ
ðl þ aÞð1 þ mS Þ 1 þ mS
mS lc2 a2 ð1  dÞ2
þ fðl þ aÞ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ acd þ lðl þ cÞð3l þ 2aÞg þ
1 þ mS ðl þ aÞ2 ð1 þ mS Þ2
cað1  dÞð3l þ c þ aÞbS cað1  dÞ½lð3l þ 3c þ aÞ þ acdmS ð2l þ c þ aÞb2 S2
þ þ þ
ðl þ aÞð1 þ mS Þ2 ðl þ aÞð1 þ mS Þ2 ð1 þ mS Þ2
ð4l2 þ 5lc þ 2la þ c2 þ ca þ acdÞmbS ðl þ cÞ½lð2l þ 2c þ aÞ þ acdm2 S2
2
þ þ :
ð1 þ mS Þ2 ð1 þ mS Þ2

It is easy to see that A1 > 0, A2 > 0, A3 > 0 and A1 A2  A3 > 0. Hence, by Routh–Hurwitz criterion, the smoking-present equi-
librium E ðP ; S ; Q t Þ is locally asymptotically stable. h
502 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

4. Global stabilities of the equilibria

We investigate the global stabilities of the smoking-free equilibrium E0 and the smoking-present equilibrium E in this
section.

Theorem 4.1. The smoking-free equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable in the positively variant set X if R0 < 1.

Proof. Consider the following Lyapunov function

VðxÞ ¼ ðl þ aÞS þ aQ t :
dVðtÞ
Calculating derivative dt
along the solutions of system (2.2), we obtain that
dVðtÞ dS dQ
¼ ðl þ aÞ þ a t
dt dt dt 
bPS
¼ ðl þ aÞ þ aQ t  ðl þ cÞS þ a½cð1  dÞS  ðl þ aÞQ t 
1 þ mS
bP
¼ S½ðl þ aÞ  ðl þ aÞðl þ cÞ þ acð1  dÞ
1 þ mS
bP
¼ S½ðl þ aÞ  lðl þ c þ aÞ  acd
1 þ mS
< S½ðl þ aÞbP  lðl þ c þ aÞ  acd
K
< S½ðl þ aÞb  lðl þ c þ aÞ  acd
l
¼ S½lðl þ c þ aÞ þ acdðR0  1Þ:

Provided that R0 < 1, then dV

dt
< 0, which indicates that the smoking-free equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable.
In the following, we use the geometric approach presented by Li and Muldowney in [14–17] to explore the global stability
of the smoking-present equilibrium E . A simple sufficient condition is derived to guarantee that the smoking-present
equilibrium E is globally asymptotically stable. To begin with, we give a brief outline of this geometric approach. Consider
the autonomous dynamical system
dx
¼ f ðxÞ; ð4:1Þ
dt
n n 1
where f : D ! R ; D  R , open set and simply connected and f 2 C ðDÞ. Denote by xðt; x0 Þ the solution to system (4.1) such
that xð0; x0 Þ ¼ x0 . Let x be an equilibrium of system (4.1), i.e., f ðx Þ ¼ 0. Suppose that the following hypotheses hold [19]:
ðH1 Þ There exists a compact absorbing set K  D .
ðH2 Þ System (4.1) has only one positive equilibrium x in D.
Next, in order to illustrate our main results, we introduce some definitions and lemmas. h

Definition 4.1. [14,17]. A Bendixson criterion is a condition satisfied by f ðxÞ which precludes the existence of non-constant
periodic solutions of system (4.1).

Definition 4.2. [14,17]. A point x0 2 D is wandering for system (4.1), if there exists a neighborhood U of x0 and T > 0 such
that U _ xðt; UÞ ¼ ; for all t > T .

Lemma 4.1. [19]. Suppose that assumptions ðH1 Þ and ðH2 Þ hold. Assume that system (4.1) satisfies a Bendixson criterion that is
robust under C 1 local perturbations of f ðxÞ at all non-equilibrium non-wandering points for system (4.1). Then x is globally stable
in D provided it is stable.
Let pðxÞ be a C 2n  C 2n matrix-valued function that is C 1 on D. Assume that p1 ðxÞ exists and is continuous for 8x 2 K. A
quantity q is defined as
Z t
1
q ¼ lim sup sup lðBðxðs; x0 ÞÞÞds;
t!1 x2K t 0

where

B ¼ Pf P1 þ PJ½2 P 1 :
Hence, the matrix P f is

ðPij ðxÞÞf ¼ ð@Pij ðxÞ=@xÞT f ðxÞ ¼ rPij f ðxÞ:

 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509 503

And the matrix J ½2 is the second additive compound matrix of the Jacobian matrix (JðxÞ ¼ Df ðxÞ). Let lðBÞ be the Lozinski
measure of B with respect to a vector norm j j in Rn , N ¼ C 2n , and be defined by
jI þ hBj  1
lðBÞ ¼ limþ :
h!0 h
The following global stability result is proved in Li and Muldowney [14].

Lemma 4.2. [19]. Suppose that D is simply connected and that the assumptions ðH1 Þ and ðH2 Þ hold. Then the unique equilibrium
x of system (4.1) is globally stable in D if q < 0 .
According to the above lemmas, we can get the following conclusion.

Theorem 4.2. The smoking-present equilibrium E ðP  ; S ; Q t Þ of system (2.2) is globally asymptotically stable in X if R0 > 1 and
b < 2clK.

Proof. From Proposition 3.1 and Theorem 3.1, it is obvious that R0 > 1 indicates the existence and uniqueness of the smok-
ing-present equilibrium E ðP  ; S ; Q t Þ. In addition, E ðP  ; S ; Q t Þ, if exists, is locally asymptotically stable. From Theorem 3.1,
the smoking-free equilibrium E0 is unstable if R0 > 1. The instability of E0 and E0 2 @ X implies the uniform persistence, that
is, there exists a constant const > 0, such that
lim inf xðtÞ > const; x ¼ ðP; S; Q t Þ:
t!þ1

The uniform persistence, because of boundedness of X, is equivalent to the existence of a compact set in the interior of X
which is absorbing for system (2.2) [20]. Hence, the condition ðH1 Þ is satisfied.
Now, the second additive compound matrix J ½2 is given by
2 bS bP 3
2l  c  1þmS þ ð1þmSÞ 2 a 0
6 bS
2l  a  1þmS bP 7
J ½2 ¼4 cð1  dÞ  ð1þmSÞ 2 5:
bS bP
0 1þmS ð1þmSÞ2
 2l  a  c
n o n _ _
o
_ _
Let pðxÞ ¼ pðP; S; Q t Þ ¼ diag 1; QSt ; QSt such that pf p1 ¼ diag 0; SS  QQ tt ; SS  QQ tt , and
 
B11 B12
B ¼ pf p1 þ pJ½2 p1 ¼ ;
B21 B22
where
 Q
T
bS bP
B11 ¼ 2l  c  1þms þ ð1þmsÞ 2 ; B12 ¼ a S ; 0 ; B21 ¼
t
cð1  dÞ QSt ; 0 ;
2 _
3
S_
S
 QQ tt  2l  a  1þmS
bS bP
 ð1þmSÞ2
B22 ¼4 _
5:
bS
1þmS
bP
ð1þmSÞ 2  2 l  a  c þ SS_  QQ tt

Suppose that the norm L1 is jða1 ; a2 ; a3 Þj ¼ maxfja1 j; ja2 j þ ja3 jg, where ða1 ; a2 ; a3 Þ is a vector in R3 . Denote by l the Lozinski
measure with respect to this norm. It follows from the notation in [21] that we have
lðBÞ 6 supðg 1 ; g 2 Þ ¼ supfl1 ðB11 Þ þ jB12 j; l1 ðB12 Þ þ jB21 jg;
where jB12 j; jB21 j are matrix norms with respect to the L1 vector norm and l1 ðB11 Þ,l1 ðB22 Þ denote the Lozinski measure with
respect to the L1 norm. Then
g 1 ¼ l1 ðB11 Þ þ jB12 j
bS bP Q
¼ 2l  c  þ þa t
1 þ mS ð1 þ mSÞ2 S
S_ mbPS þ bS þ mbS2
¼ l 2
S ð1 þ mSÞ
S_
6  l;
S
g 2 ¼ l1 ðB22
(Þ þ jB21 j
S_ Q_ 2bP
¼ max  t  2l  a; 2
S Qt ð1 þ mSÞ)
_S Q_ S
2l  a  c þ  t þ cð1  dÞ
S Qt Qt
!
S_ 2bP
¼  l þ max 0;  c :
S ð1 þ mSÞ2
504 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

It follows from Theorem 4.2 and P < Kl that

2bP K 2bK  lc
 c < 2bP  c 6 2b c¼ 6 0:
ð1 þ mSÞ2 l l
Hence,

S_
g 2 ¼ l1 ðB22 Þ þ jB21 j 6  l;
S
which leads to,

S_
lðBÞ 6 supðg 1 ; g 2 Þ ¼  l:
S
Along each solution ðPðtÞ; SðtÞ; Q t ðtÞÞ of system (2.2) with ðPð0Þ; Sð0Þ; Q t ð0ÞÞ 2 K, where K is the compact absorbing set, we
have
Rt
q ¼ lim sup sup 1t 0
lðBðxðs; x0 ÞÞÞds 6 t!1 SðtÞ
lim sup sup 1t log Sð0Þ  l 6 2l < 0:
t!1 x2K x2K

cl
As a consequence, if R0 > 1 and b < 2K, then the smoking-present equilibrium E ðP ; S ; Q t Þ of system (2.2) is globally
asymptotically stable in X. h

5. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations

In this section, we will analyze which factors are the most important in controlling smoking so that we can take the most
effective measures to control and combat the smoking behavior. Further, we carry out numerical simulations to explain and
verify the mathematical conclusions, and provide a control measure.
We first estimate proper parameter values so as to perform sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations.

5.1. Parameter estimation

Assume that the average age of people is 70 years old, then we take the death rate l ¼ 1=ð365  70Þ  4  105 person
per day. The average duration of smoking for smokers is estimated as 10 years. Thus, the quitting rate of smokers is
c ¼ 1=ð365  10Þ  2:74  104 person per day. The average time-span for temporary quitters from the time quitting
smoking to the time starting smoking again is about 2 years, then a ¼ 1=ð2  365Þ  0:0014 person per day. We take the
value of the contact rate h ¼ 8:2192  104 in [13]. The remainder parameters are estimated as follows: the price of
cigarettes pr ¼ 10 yan per pack, the recruitment rate of potential smokers is K ¼ 0:25 person per day, the ratio of quitters
who quit smoking permanently d ¼ 0:8, the approximate proportion of smokers distributed in each smoking area
m ¼ 0:001 and k is appraised as k ¼ 680. We list each parameter value of system (2.2) in Table 1 to provide a quick reference.

5.2. Sensitivity analysis

Assume that q ¼ qðprÞ satisfies qð0Þ ¼ 1 and qðþ1Þ ¼ 0. According to the demand theorem of economics, we suppose
1
qðprÞ ¼ 1þkpr (where k is a positive constant). Hence, we get the effective contact rate b ¼ hq ¼ 1þkpr
h
. Furthermore,

ðl þ aÞKh
R0 ¼ :
lð1 þ kprÞ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
Calculating the partial derivative of R0 with respect to pr (the price of cigarettes) yields
@R0 kðl þ aÞKh
¼ < 0:
@pr lð1 þ kprÞ2 ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad

From the decreasing property of R0 , it is true that smokers will be eliminated gradually as long as R0 ¼ lð1þkprÞ½ðllþðlaþÞKahþcÞþcad < 1,
that is,
ðl þ aÞKh  l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
pr > :
kl½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad
Similarly, the partial derivatives of R0 with respect to c (the quitting rate), d (the ratio of quitters who give up smoking
permanently) and h (the contact rate) are obtained as follows
 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509 505

@R0 ðl þ aÞðl þ adÞKb

¼ < 0;
@c l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad2
@R0 ðl þ aÞKbac
¼ < 0;
@d l½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad2
@R0 ðl þ aÞK
¼ > 0:
@h lð1 þ kprÞ½lðl þ a þ cÞ þ cad2
Obviously, R0 is also a monotonically decreasing function with respect to c and d, respectively, while R0 is a monotonically
increasing function with respect to h. Hence, corresponding measures are taken to increase c and d so as to contribute to
reducing the number of smokers gradually. For example, the relevant government departments should provide the public
service advertising to propagate that smoking is very harmful to health. Meanwhile, institutions for public interest provide
specific help to facilitate tobacco cessation, etc. In addition, decreasing the contact rate h in various ways is constructive to
improving the tobacco use. For instance, it is setting up designed smoking areas that makes potential smokers be segregated
from smokers, which diminishes the contact chances between smokers and potential smokers. For this reason, in theory, it is
an imperative and effective step for controlling smoking to set up designed smoking areas in public places.
However, R0 is independent of m, which means that changing the proportion of smokers distributed in each smoking area
does not affect the basic reproductive number. Even so, the purpose of controlling smoking is same achieved if the number of
smokers stabilizes within an acceptable threshold e, that is,
lðR0  1Þ
S ¼ < e;
b þ ml
or equivalently,
lðR0  1Þ  eb
m> :
lb
Therefore, raising sufficiently the cluster degree of smokers can also achieve the aim of controlling smoking.
Further, to find out which factors contribute the most significantly to determining the final number of smokers S and the
value of the basic reproductive number R0 , we will perform sensitivity analysis (a standard approach is to fix all parameter
values but one, and then to increase or decrease that one parameter by a certain percentage, and examine the effect on the
model endpoints.). Now pr; h; d; c and m are chosen as perturbed parameters. Each parameter is perturbed from its estimated
value by 10%. The corresponding percent changes of S and R0 are listed in Table 2, where the initial parameter values are
K ¼ 0:25, pr ¼ 25, k ¼ 680, h ¼ 8:2192  104 , l ¼ 4  105 , a ¼ 1:4  104 , c ¼ 2:74  104 , d ¼ 0:8 and m ¼ 0:001, then
S ¼ 72, R0 ¼ 1:1589. While the parameter values after being perturbed are pr 1 ¼ 27:5, h1 ¼ 7:3973  104 ,
c1 ¼ 3:014  104 , d1 ¼ 0:88 and m1 ¼ 0:0011 respectively. From Table 2, we can see that pr and h are the most sensitive,
namely, raising the price of cigarettes and decreasing the contact rate are very significant in controlling smoking.

5.3. Numerical simulations

To find out clearly the effect of controlling smoking by increasing the price of cigarettes, we only change the value of pr.
By calculating, the effective contact rate b, the basic reproductive number R0 , the number of each sub-population in stable
state and the stable equilibrium corresponding to the different prices of cigarettes are listed in Table 3, respectively.
In addition, let us substantiate the analytical results obtained above by simulations (we only change pr and let the others
parameter values remain unchanged.).

When pr ¼ 15, then R0 ¼ 1:9315 > 1. The variations of PðtÞ, SðtÞ and Q t ðtÞ with time are shown in Fig. 2.

When pr ¼ 30, then R0 ¼ 0:9658 < 1. The changes of PðtÞ, SðtÞ and Q t ðtÞ with time are depicted in Fig. 3.

When pr 2 ½10; 50, the corresponding variations of R0 and S (the number of smokers in the steady state) are displayed in
Fig. 4.

When pr ¼ 10, m 2 ð0; 0:9Þ, the corresponding change of S (the number of smokers in the steady state) is exhibited in
Fig. 5.

Table 2
The percent changes of S and R0 .

pr1 h1 c1 d1 m1

Si 25.5000 20.6000 31.0000 32.3000 69.0000

Ri 1.0536 1.0430 1.0685 1.0714 1.1589
S Si 64.58% 71.39% 56.94% 55.14% 4.44%
S
R0 Ri 9.09% 10.00% 7.80% 7.55% 0.00%
R0
506 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

Table 3
The influence of pr on R0 , P, S, Q t , Q p at the steady states respectively.

The price pr The contact rate b Basic reproductive number R0 P S Qt Qp Stable equilibrium

10 1:2000  10 7 2.8971 3175 471 17 2585 E

14 8:6320  108 2.0694 4042 338 12 1855 E
18 6:7140  108 1.6096 4766 227 9 1247 E
22 5:4900  108 1.3170 5379 133 5 731 E
26 4:6500  108 1.1144 5905 52 2 289 E
28 4:3166  108 1.0348 6141 16 0 92 E
30 4:0288  108 0.9658 6250 0 0 0 E0
34 3:5549  108 0.8522 6250 0 0 0 E0
38 3:1800  108 0.7625 6250 0 0 0 E0
45 2:6859  108 0.6439 6250 0 0 0 E0
50 2:4173  108 0.5795 6250 0 0 0 E0
60 2:0145  108 0.4829 6250 0 0 0 E0

6000 500

5500 400
P(t)

S(t)
5000 300

4500 200

4000 100
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (day) x 10
4 Time (day) x 10
4

100
80

60
Q (t)

Q t(t)

50
t

40

20
0
0 500
0 2 4 6 8 10
4
0 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
x 10 S(t)
Time (day) P(t)

Fig. 2. Pictures show the changes of PðtÞ, SðtÞ and Q t ðtÞ with time when pr ¼ 15 and the others parameters values are the same as in the Table 1.

6400 150

6200 100
P(t)

S(t)

6000 50

5800 0
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Time (day) x 10
5 Time (day) x 10
5

60
100
40
Qt (t)

Q t (t)

50
20

400
0 0 200
0 1 2 3 2000 4000 6000 0
8000 S (t)
Time (day) x 10
5
P(t)

Fig. 3. Pictures exhibit the variations of PðtÞ, SðtÞ and Q t ðtÞ with time when pr ¼ 30 and the others parameters values remain unchanged.

Figs. 2 and 3 indicate that the smoking-free equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, and the smoking-
present equilibrium E ðP ; S ; Q t Þ is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. The increase in the price of cigarettes can make
the effective contact rate b, the basic reproductive number R0 and the number of smokers decrease dramatically as shown in
Fig. 4 and Table 3. That is, increasing the price of cigarettes can control smoking epidemic effectively. We also find out, from
 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509 507

The reproductive
number: R 0
2

0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
The price of cigarettes: pr

600
The number of
smokers: S 0

400

200

0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
The price of cigarettes: pr

Fig. 4. Pictures show the decrease of R0 and the number of smokers in the steady state as pr increases, where pr 2 ½10; 50.

700
the number of smokers: S

600
*

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
m

Fig. 5. Picture shows the decrease of S as m increases (m 2 ð0; 0:9Þ), where pr ¼ 10 and the others parameters values remain unchanged.

8
x 10
3.5
The number of smokers: S(t)

3
The number of current smkoers: S(0)=3.0 × 10 8

2.5

1.5

1 Control objective: S(0) × 10%=3.0 × 10 7

0.5

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Time (year)

Fig. 6. For control measure provided in this paper, picture shows the variation of the number of smokers with time. The number of smokers will be reduced
to 10% of current smokers.
508 L. Pang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 259 (2015) 497–509

Fig. 5, the number of smokers decreases markedly as m increases, which implies that improving the proportion of smokers
distributed in each smoking area can make the number of smokers stabilize within an acceptable threshold e.

5.4. Design of control measure

In order to provide a clear guidance for decision-markers, we design a control measure. The facts indicate that currently
the total population is 1400 million and there is about 300 million smokers in China [4], that is, Pð0Þ ¼ 1:100  109 and
Sð0Þ ¼ 3:000  108 . We take the strategies of increasing the price of cigarettes, strengthening the publicity of the dangers
of smoking and setting up designed smoking areas to control smoking. Further, our goal is to decrease 90% of the number
of current smokers within 20 years. By numerical calculations, we get a control measure (pr ¼ 30 yuan; c ¼ 1:29  103
and m ¼ 0:0001) (see Fig. 6). That is, to reduce the number of smokers to 10% of the number of current smokers within
20 years, we should increase the price of cigarettes to 30 yuan, set up about 10 000 special smoking areas and strengthen
the publicity of the dangers of smoking to shorten the duration of smoking to about 2.2 years (1=ð1:29  103 Þ
¼ 775 days  2.2 years and 1=0:0001 ¼ 10 000).

6. Further discussions and conclusions

In this paper, we mainly investigate the effect of controlling smoking by setting up designed smoking areas and raising
the price of cigarettes in China. We establish a mathematical model of the ordinary differential equations with saturated
incidence rate to describe the dynamic properties of smokers. Based on the above analysis, we can see that the smoking-free
equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, while the smoking-present equilibrium is globally asymptotically
stable if R0 > 1. For this paper, the conditions of the local stabilities of the smoking-free and the smoking-present equilibria
also ensure their global stabilities. That is, whatever state each subpopulation is in, if we decrease b or increase pr or c by
setting up designed smoking areas, increasing the price of cigarettes and strengthening the publicity of the dangers of smok-
ing to make R0 < 1, then the smoking epidemic can be controlled effectively. Otherwise smoking will become one of the
enduring problems of society.
By parametric analyzes, the basic reproductive number R0 is a monotonically decreasing function with respect to pr, c and
d, respectively. In other words, by taking some strategies to increase these parameter values, we can eliminate smokers ulti-
mately. As shown in Section 5, the number of smokers and the basic reproductive number decrease markedly as the price of
cigarettes increases. In particular, if the price of cigarettes is not less than 30 yuan per pack, then smokers will be eliminated
ultimately (see Fig. 3). In addition, although the basic reproductive number is independent of m, the increase of m can make
the number of smokers decrease observably. That is, it is by increasing the cluster degree of smokers that we can also make
the number of smokers stabilize within an acceptable threshold e as shown in Fig. 5.
Through parameter sensitive analysis, we know that the price of cigarettes pr and the contact rate h are the most sensi-
tive, which shows that raising the price of cigarettes and decreasing the contact rate are the most effective methods in con-
trolling smoking. Finally, we obtain a control measure. That is, to decrease the number of smokers to 10% of the number of
current smokers within 20 years, we should increase the price of cigarettes to 30 yuan, set up about 10 000 special smoking
areas and shorten duration of smoking to 2.2 years by strengthening the publicity and facilitating smoking cessation.
In conclusion, improving the price of cigarettes and setting up special smoking areas are very effective measures in con-
trolling smoking. However, it’s worth noting that, by the numerical simulations, system (2.2) will take quite a long time
(about 300 years) to reach a steady state. Based on this, we can draw a conclusion that there is a long way to go to control
tobacco use. Despite introducing the two factors into the model proposed, we do not consider the impact of mortality due to
diseases caused by smoking and the impact of second-hand smoke to non-smokers. Next step, we will discuss the harmful-
ness of smoking to individuals, society and economy and the impacts of the other factors, such as the health resources con-
sumption of the patients caused by smoking in our future work.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank editors and anonymous reviewers for their very valuable comments and suggestions which
improve the presentation of this work. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.
11071275, 11228104 and 11371164) and NSFC – Talent Training Fund of Henan (U1304104).

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