Trend Management How To Effectively Use Trend-Knowledge in Your Company (Jörg Blechschmidt)

Jörg
Blechschmidt
Trend
Management
How to Effectively Use
Trend-Knowledge in
Your Company
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Jörg Blechschmidt
Trend Management
How to Effectively Use
Trend-Knowledge in Your Company
Jörg Blechschmidt
Zornheim, Germany
ISSN 2731-4758 ISSN 2731-4766 (electronic)

Business Guides on the Go
ISBN 978-3-662-64702-8 ISBN 978-3-662-64703-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5
Translation from the German language edition: Quick Guide Trendmanagement by Jörg Blechschmidt,
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Preface
The future is an exciting topic. We are fascinated by the infinite possibil-

ities that may arise. We are shocked as well by the incredible threats that
could become reality. Entire industries thrive on the hopes and fears that
people associate with the future. While many of these hopes and fears
do not stand up to sober examination, others are entirely justified and
should not be ignored.
When we talk about the future, however, we don’t just mean the world
10 or 20 years from now. Virtually, every one of our very personal deci-
sions today is based on often unconscious assumptions about the future.
We buy a new piece of clothing because we are firmly convinced that
we will wear it often and with pleasure, only to discover a year later that
it has been hanging in our closet the whole time. We decide to take an
apprenticeship on the assumption that it will set us on a promising career
path, only to find ourselves in a completely different job a few years later.
Many of the small decisions are not so important to examine them inten-
sively beforehand. For some of them, you later regret not having done
so.
v
vi Preface
This is exactly the situation we find in companies every day. There,

projects are started or stopped, divisions are established or sold, people
are hired or fired. Many of these decisions cannot be reversed, but they
have an enormous impact on the economic success of the company
and on the personal fates of many employees. And all these decisions
are based on assumptions about future developments in the markets
in which the company operates, the society from which the company’s
customers come, and the technologies used in production or on which
the products are based. Thus, it is not surprising that companies put
a lot of effort into understanding future developments. For this reason,
trend management has established itself as an important element in many
companies.
Trend management directs the view from the company to the outside.
It analyzes developments in the economic environment and interprets
them with respect to the company’s individual situation. Since strategic
decisions influence the direction of a company for many years to come,
trend management must also look similarly far into the future—a future
that is not even determined today. Trend management therefore works
in tension between soft images of the future and hard business decisions.
An uncertain future meets fact-oriented managers. It is a great challenge
to unite these two worlds.
Good trend management requires a solid understanding of basic
concepts and methodological approaches. Dealing with fuzzy informa-
tion, alternative development paths, and the threat of yet unknown,
surprising events requires a special approach. In this book, practical tips
from real use complement the theory. After all, trend management has
only fulfilled its task when it has led to positive changes.
The book starts with a brief introduction to basic terms and char-
acteristics of trends and provides an overview of the tasks for which
trend knowledge can be used in a business context. After explaining
the procedure for researching and analyzing relevant information, the
book introduces the essential result formats of trend analysis with the
trend study and the trend radar. At the end of the book, you will learn
how systematic trend management can be established in companies. You
will gain a broad understanding of all the fundamental aspects of trend
management and should be able to analyze trends yourself or install
Preface vii
systematic trend management in your company. The transfer-to-practice

notes at the end of each chapter will guide you through the process.
But to curb the euphoria: The future remains uncertain. It will
always surprise us, both positively and negatively. Even after reading
this book, you will not be able to predict the future. Nevertheless, your
recommendations and decisions will lead to better results.
This book is based on the author’s own experience in a real business
context as well as many conversations with other trend managers. Both
the interested newcomer and the experienced trend manager should be
able to take away a variety of impulses and thus be able to evaluate
trends (even better) and derive concrete results. However, since there is
no approach that fits all companies equally well, you will have to find
and establish your specific working method yourself.
I wish you every success in this endeavor!
Zornheim, Germany Jörg Blechschmidt

Contents
1 About Trends in General 1

1.1 The Future 1
1.2 Diffusion of Innovations 3
1.3 Gartner Hype Cycle 6
1.4 Trends 8
1.5 Trend Recognition 12
1.6 Trend Types 14
References 19
2 Excursus: Dealing with Fuzzy Information 21
3 Trend Analysis in Companies 25
3.1 Business Decisions 25
3.2 Application Areas 27
3.3 Organizational Anchoring 35
4 Trend Research: Collecting Trend Information 37
4.1 Research 37
4.2 Time Horizons 41
References 49
ix
x Contents
5 Trend Analysis: Understanding Effects 51

5.1 Analysis 51
5.2 Temporal Development 57
5.3 Interpretation 62
6 Excursus: Thinking Traps in Trend Analysis 67
References 73
7 Trend Study: In-Depth Analysis of a Trend 75
7.1 Concept 75
7.2 Implementation 77
7.3 Documentation 78
8 Trend Radar: Overview of Relevant Trends 85
8.1 Concept 85
8.3 Documentation 95
References 98
9 Trend Management as a Corporate Function 99
9.1 Tasks 99
9.3 Bringing About Decisions 106
9.4 Practice Tips 109
10 A Word in Closing 115
Reference 116
1
About Trends in General
What You Take Away from This Chapter

• Why we deal with the future.
• What trends are.
• How trends develop over time.
• The different types of trends.
1.1 The Future

The future is the time after the present. It exists today only as an idea
in our heads. Therefore, there is no one future. Due to his individual
situation, his past, his knowledge, his cultural background, and many
other factors, each person has a different idea of the future. We only
know what the future will really be like when it has become the present.
Therefore, there can be no objectively correct statements about the
future. We form our picture of the future on ideas, assumptions, and, in
the best case, concrete forecasts. These are always based on assumptions,
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022 1

J. Blechschmidt, Trend Management, Business Guides on the Go,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_1
2 J. Blechschmidt
which can be right or wrong, inaccurate, or incomplete. And unexpected

events can render forecasts obsolete that once seemed realistic.
The occurrence probability of forecasts depends on the type of field
under consideration. Some fields change very slowly and are stable to
external influences. Good knowledge of the basic mechanisms can then
lead to high forecast reliability. Then there are highly dynamic domains
that are difficult to predict due to their complexity or their sensitivity
to external influences. From chaos theory, we know systems in which
the smallest change in initial values leads to enormously large changes in
long-term behavior, the so-called butterfly effect. For example, strongly
regulated markets are sluggish in the face of change, but the field of
new digital technologies is highly dynamic and correspondingly less
predictable.
It would certainly be easiest to take the future as it comes. However,
we are constantly faced with a choice and have to make decisions that will
not only change our personal future but can also influence the future of
many other people. We usually make decisions in such a way that they
lead to a more positive future for us. In any case, we deal with the future
consciously or unconsciously.
All decisions are based on assumptions about the future.
When we choose an apprenticeship, we assume that we will be able to

take up a job that we will enjoy and that pays attractive wages. When a
company makes an investment decision, the management assumes that
the financial and human resources invested will bring the company an
attractive financial return within a defined period. In the lottery, we bet
that the combination of numbers we have chosen is more likely to be
drawn in the next draw than other numbers—even though we know
rationally that this cannot be the case.
The future cannot be predicted. The high complexity and the many
imponderables involved in dealing with the future make a reliable
forecast difficult. And hardly any forecast will come true exactly. Never-
theless, a methodically sound approach leads to a good assessment of
possible futures and can significantly improve today’s decisions.
We deal with the future in order to make better decisions in the present.
In particular, in a corporate context, it is usually a matter of concrete

questions that are to be answered considering possible future develop-
ments. The complexity of the consideration is thus reduced to those
aspects that are relevant for the respective decision. The accuracy of the
required consideration can also be determined by the given problem.
Often, no exact forecast is required. The future consideration must only
be good enough to enable the intended decision. Only by reducing
complexity in this way does dealing with the future become manageable
at all.
1.2 Diffusion of Innovations

As uncertain and dynamic as the future may be, there are various devel-
opment patterns that can repeatedly be found. One example is the
diffusion model (Fig. 1.1) developed by Everett Rogers [1]. It describes
the spread of innovations in a society. It focuses on the reaction of
people to change, regardless of the innovation type. This can be not only
product innovations, but also a change in product usage, new attitudes
toward life, behaviors, and much more. The decisive factor is that the
change is perceived as new by the individuals in question. The diffusion
model thus describes a fundamental mechanism of many trends.
In the diffusion model, the innovators are the first group of people to
adopt an innovation. They are curious, willing to take risks, and open to
change. Through their supraregional networks, they recognize innova-
tions early and consider them for themselves. On the one hand, they
accept a product that is not yet fully developed; on the other hand,
they can deal with occasional setbacks. The special role of innovators
4 J. Blechschmidt
100%
Laggards (16%)
84%
Late Majority (34%)

Adoption
50%
Early Majority (34%)
16%
Early Adopters
(13.5%) Innovators (2.5%)
2.5%
Time
Fig. 1.1 Diffusion model by Rogers, own illustration according to [1]
is to bring an innovation into a new environment. They thus make its

dissemination possible in the first place.
Early adopters tend to be regionally oriented. They recognize innova-
tions in their immediate environment and orientate themselves to the
experience of the innovators. They are more selective and less willing to
take risks. They consider innovations only when a relative added value
compared to the status quo becomes apparent. Through their regional
networks, they act as multipliers in their specific environment.
The increasing visibility of the innovation increases the interest of the
early majority. Although they are open to innovations, they first wait for
proof of concrete benefits. For them, theoretical understanding is not
enough; they are much more likely to be convinced by the example of
early adopters and personal recommendations.
With these three groups, about half of the potential users have been
won over, which puts the late majority under pressure to act. This group
of people is skeptical of innovations and has little intrinsic motivation to
change ingrained behaviors. At this point, however, they find themselves
at a steadily increasing disadvantage compared to the early majority, so

that they, too, must become active at some point.
Laggards are satisfied with the status quo. They often reject inno-
vations across the board because they see no need for change. They
represent the last group of people to adopt an innovation, often because
of external pressure. For example, sticking to old ways of doing things
can become more expensive over time as volumes shrink. Or standards
and regulations adapt to the new circumstances and push back the old
status quo.
The mechanism behind the diffusion model is founded in the commu-
nication of the innovation between the individual actors. They need to
deviate from the learned and proven procedure and overcome the uncer-
tainty associated with an innovation. In the diffusion model, the various
groups of people differ essentially in the way they deal with uncertainty.
Thus, every innovation always develops through its interaction with and
between people. Even very specific technology trends can therefore never
be viewed solely in terms of technology.
Individuals do not always belong to the same group. For example,
technology-savvy people can be early adopters or even innovators in the
case of technological innovations but take the role of laggards with social
innovations. Moreover, market penetration does not necessarily affect the
whole society, but only the relevant part, such as a particular country or
a specific social class. Innovations in mechanical engineering will have an
impact on manufacturers and users of machines and only indirectly, for
example, via lower manufacturing costs and thus more favorable prices,
on a larger share of the population.
In its basic form, the diffusion model assumes a single innovation.
It also considers the fact that further innovations emerge around the
original innovation or that the original innovation develops further with
time. Both can lead to accelerated penetration, whereby the basic shape
of the curve remains unchanged. Instead of individual innovations, one
then talks about innovation clusters.
The spread of innovations described by the diffusion model is a
fundamental mechanism of many trends. In addition to the triggering
innovation, which does not necessarily have to be technical in nature,
communication between the individual players plays a decisive role. The
6 J. Blechschmidt
development of the future is thus always an interplay of a wide variety of

factors. In the case of trends, however, a regular course as described by
the diffusion model is the exception.
1.3 Gartner Hype Cycle

Gartner [2] has developed the Hype Cycle (Fig. 1.2) to describe the
spread of technologies; Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic repre-
sentation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications,
and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems
and exploiting new opportunities. The Gartner Hype Cycle method-
ology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve
over time, providing a sound source of insight to manage its deployment
within the context of specific business goals.
In contrast to the diffusion model, the focus is not on market pene-
tration, but rather the expectations of the public that are met by a
technology. The model is based on the observation that many technolo-
gies go through a phase of excessive expectation, a hype, before they gain
Peak of
Inflated Expectations
Expectations
Plateau of
Productivity
Slope of
Enlightenment
Innovation
Trigger
Trough of
Disillusionment
Time
Fig. 1.2 Gartner Hype Cycle, own illustration according to [2]

broad acceptance. A technology can be assigned a position on the Hype

Cycle using easily accessible information, and the maturity of different
technologies can be compared with one another.
The Hype Cycle is divided into five key phases, which Gartner
describes as follows:
1. Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things

off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger signif-
icant publicity. Often, no usable products exist and commercial
viability is unproven.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number
of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some
companies take action; many do not.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and imple-
mentations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or
fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve
their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can
benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely
understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from tech-
nology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative compa-
nies remain cautious.
5. Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off.
Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined.
The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly
paying off.
As in the diffusion model, the interaction between technologies and

society is evident in the Gartner Hype Cycle. A technology does not
develop out of itself, but depends on the acceptance of society and users,
the psychology of the masses, the assessments of financiers, political
decisions, and many others.
It is important to note that many new technologies fail. Often, the
expected benefit cannot be realized. Or other, better technologies with
a higher level of utility may develop, displacing the older ones. It is
8 J. Blechschmidt
not uncommon for inferior technologies to gain acceptance, when they

receive higher financial support or whose providers have stronger market
power. In particular, the difficult situation in the Trough of Disillusion-
ment often leads to the rejection of a technology. Technologies then
disappear from the Hype Cycle.
Gartner expressly points out the simplifications of the hype cycle.
Nevertheless, the Hype Cycle is considered a good abstraction for inter-
preting the state of a technology and thus allows conclusions to be drawn
about further development.
1.4 Trends
We know trends from fashion, the financial world, and mathematics, for
example. Regardless of the context, they always describe changes that
continue over a certain period of time. But there is no universally valid
definition for trends. Even in common usage, the meaning of the term
is unclear.
Often, trends are seen as real developments that are first discov-
ered, then described, and analyzed. In practice, however, it is apparent
that different trend institutes describe changes through different trends,
group them differently, and often arrive at different findings. This raises
the question of which institute has detected the real trend and which
institute has done a poor job—a senseless discussion. For our purpose,
we want to depart from the concept of “real” trends and take a pragmatic
approach.
A trend is a theoretical construct to simplify dealing with the future.
A trend is thus a methodical tool for making complex changes

manageable. For this purpose, it combines many individual observations
into an overarching development. Each individual observation on its own
has little significance and may perhaps be a random event. The sum of
many similar observations gives a change a more fundamental meaning.
It reduces the possibility of coincidence and allows the derivation of a

larger pattern. Summarizing as a trend thus reduces the complexity of
individual observations to an overarching development.
Generally, it does not matter over what time span this development
continues. Here, too, a pragmatic approach is appropriate, which is
derived from the objective of the analysis. If we are interested in the
fashion colors of the next season, then trends over periods of months are
of interest. If the task is to realign a company, then trends lasting for
years and decades become significant.
By postulating a trend, one assumes that the multitude of individual
observations are interrelated and that the presumed pattern can in prin-
ciple be extrapolated into the future. Even the description of the trend
is already an interpretation regarding the expected future. It may well be
that individual observations become less significant in a specific context,
others may become more relevant, or unexpected ones may be added. In
the course of time and based on many further observations, the inter-
pretation of a trend can change up to the realization that the originally
postulated trend is not a trend after all.
For trend analysis, it would be ideal if all trends were independent
of each other. Then each trend could be analyzed on its own and its
effects on a company could be considered separately from other trends.
However, this is usually not the case. The diffusion model and the
hype cycle are examples of the intensive interaction between innova-
tions or technologies and society. Real observations reflect a variety of
different mechanisms. These interactions are essential components of
trend dynamics. Trends interact with each other and with the envi-
ronment, have spurts, hypes, and stalls. Occasional regressions are not
uncommon.
Opposing trends can also exist in parallel. The trend of urbanization,
i.e., the growth of the urban population due to an influx from rural
regions, is countered by the trend of urban escape, in which people leave
the hectic life of the city to relocate to quieter, sparsely populated areas.
While urbanization is a strong, global trend, urban flight refers to specific
regions and groups of people.
10 J. Blechschmidt
Even trends that are beyond a company’s direct influence, such as

global warming, lead to changes in society’s behavior, new regulations,
and laws, and, in turn, to accelerated technological developments that
can ultimately have a direct impact on a company—which then retroacts
on the course of global warming itself.
For this reason, we understand a trend not only in terms of its core
content—a new technology, an innovation, a societal or natural change,
etc.—but also in terms of its complex development in interplay with
other factors.
A trend is a simplified description of an overarching development that

results from the interactions of a content core with its environment and
persists over a period of time of relevance in the respective context.
In the sense of this trend definition, innovations whose spread is

described by the diffusion model and technologies whose courses follow
a hype cycle are trends, since they include interactions with society.
However, they represent only a small section of the variety of trend types.
To observe the course of a trend, concrete measurable parameters are
required that are derived from the respective trend. For practical reasons,
these should be easily accessible for analysis. These can be sales figures
of certain products, statistics, or survey results. Often, it is the combi-
nation of different variables that describes a trend well and allows its
development to be understood.
With Google Trends, the company Google provides extensive, easily
researchable data on terms searched for on the Internet via Google’s
search engine. Search behavior on the Internet can be interpreted as the
strength of interest in a topic and thus as an indicator of trend strength.
The example of virtual reality (Fig. 1.3) shows that the term had been
of interest to many Internet users for many years. The introduction of
the first virtual reality glasses Oculus Rift in a developer version did not
change the overall interest significantly. However, people often searched
for the specific product Oculus Rift. The term must therefore have been
100
80
March 2016
Oculus VR Consumer Version
60
40 March 2013
Oculus VR Developer Kit
20
0
2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01
Virtual Reality Oculus Rift Virtual Reality Glasses
Fig. 1.3 Virtual reality Internet searches. Data source Google Trends [3]
known to these people by name, which suggests they were developers

and interested professionals.
With the announcement and after the launch of the consumer version,
interest in virtual reality increased dramatically. However, searches for the
specific product decreased. Instead, the first search queries for the general
term virtual reality glasses appeared.
This development suggests that private individuals were now also
interested in virtual reality. It also explains the significant increase in
search queries every year in December (Christmas!). It is also interesting
to note the apparently continuous decline in interest since the initial
hype after the market launch.
The data from Google Trends are not absolute figures, but values
normalized to certain factors, so that interpretation is not always easy.
In addition, the methodology of data collection is intransparent, and the
trends shown vary with the time of data access, among other factors
[4]. Nevertheless, it becomes clear that the seemingly simple theoret-
ical models turn out to be much more complex in reality. Consider
for a moment who the innovators and early adopters are in the virtual
reality trajectory described. You surely recognized the peak of inflated
expectations. Did you?
12 J. Blechschmidt
Evolution as a Thought Pattern for Trends
A nice mental picture for the development of trends is the natural

evolution, in which many random mutations repeatedly open new devel-
opment paths in the most diverse directions. Many of them turn out to
be unsuitable. However, the developments with the most advantageous
characteristics for the respective environment prevail after some time. In
addition to the main branch, secondary branches with divergent proper-
ties may form, especially if they develop in environments with divergent
requirements. Some paths also end after some time. In retrospect, the
paths of evolution can often be traced very well. At the beginning of the
process, however, it is difficult to see the future.
1.5 Trend Recognition

Trend research is the starting point of all trend activities. It identifies
developments that cannot be explained by known patterns, summarizes
them as new trends, determines their characteristics and developments,
and describes them. Early recognition of new trends enables important
developments to be considered early on in business decisions and a well-
thought-out, planned approach. Surprises are avoided. A head start over
market competitors leads to a strategic advantage.
Trend research is the process of deriving trends from the observation of

change.
Early definitions of the term limit trend research to the observation

of social changes. As already described, practically every trend shows
an interaction with society, which influences its development. For prac-
tical application, however, it is important to also consider environmental
trends, such as species extinction, or technologies that are initially only
visible in an academic environment. With a focus on society, such trends
are not visible early on, but may already be highly relevant for certain
companies.
Identifying new trends requires a certain number of observations that
allow a common interpretation. The younger the trend, the fewer signs
there are and the more blurred is the overall picture. According to
Ansoff, the early precursors of a trend are called weak signals [5]. They
show punctual manifestations of a new development without the larger
development already being recognizable. Each weak signal by itself has
little significance. Only the increasing occurrence of similar weak signals
enables the identification of new trends. Once a trend has been recog-
nized as such, it is usually possible to find further early signs that can
be assigned to the trend in retrospect, but whose relevance was not
recognized at the time of their occurrence.
Of particular relevance for trend research are highly rare events that
are discovered by chance or in a different context, so-called black swans.
The term was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb [6] in analyzing often
extreme consequences of rare or unlikely events. It is a metaphor for
the discovery of the first black swan, previously unknown in Europe, in
1697 in Australia. Until its discovery, the widespread assumption was
that there were only white swans. The accidental discovery of America in
search of a new shipping route to India is also such a black swan, which
dramatically changed the world.
In terms of trend analysis, black swans are important signals with
great influence on the future but are difficult to find even by system-
atic analysis. Thus, there is always the danger of overlooking important
information and therefore not being able to take it into consideration.
In the context of trend analysis, a black swan refers to a highly rare or

unlikely event with a disruptive impact on the future.
While trend research is concerned with understanding the changes

themselves, trend analysis interprets them in terms of their impact. While
trend research seeks to understand trends comprehensively, analysis is
14 J. Blechschmidt
concerned with identifying specific influences, in our case on a company

and its environment.
Trend analysis analyzes the influence of identified trends on a defined

area of impact, for example, on a company.
Trend research usually takes place in specialized companies, such as

trend consultancies and research institutes. For companies outside the
trend industry, the effort is usually not worthwhile. They typically focus
on analyzing identified trends and deriving individual findings and activ-
ities. Large companies occasionally supplement external trend research
with specific observations in their core fields or other areas of particular
interest.
There are countless trend researchers and trend companies, consul-
tants, and authors dealing with the future. The variety of methodological
approaches is correspondingly large. They range from experience-based
gut feeling to a stringent scientific approach. The great differences
in quality call for appropriate caution when using the results. Not
everything that has been written is a reliable basis for business decisions.
1.6 Trend Types

Trends can describe any overarching change that persists over a certain
period of time. For practical work, it is helpful to classify the various
trends into a logical structure.
In 1982, the book Megatrends [7] written by John Naisbitt was
published, which became a bestseller, popularized futures research, and
incidentally coined the term megatrend . Naisbitt understood megatrends
as major social, political, or technological changes that last for many
years, such as globalization and digitalization. He thus defines mega-
trends by their scope in terms of time and content. These two criteria
can be found in almost all categorizations of trends, with megatrends
often representing the top category, which is expanded by subcategories

(Fig. 1.4).
A comprehensive systematics of trends has been introduced by the
Zukunftsinstitut [8], one of the early German companies in trend and
futures research, whereby the Zukunftsinstitut emphasizes that there are
no hard boundaries between the individual trend categories.
In the systematics of the Zukunftsinstitut, megatrends describe large,
comprehensive changes. The criteria for a megatrend are a duration
of several decades, influence on all areas of society, globality, and
complexity. The Zukunftsinstitut focuses on the enormous impact of
megatrends on change as a criterion for distinguishing them from other
trends. Through their broad impact on many areas of life, they lead to
fundamental, sustainable change in the world.
Below the megatrends, there are
• Socio-cultural trends that have a duration of around 10 years and

describe social and technical change.
Trend
Megatrend
Impact
Trend
Trend
Megatrend
Time
Fig. 1.4 Trends and megatrends

16 J. Blechschmidt
• Consumer and zeitgeist trends lasting up to 8 years.

• Product and fashion trends, some of which last only a few months and
represent the shortest trends in the Zukunftsinstitut’s system.
The Zukunftsinstitut defines metatrends as a level above megatrends.

Metatrends describe fundamental natural changes on time scales of
millions of years. They thus form the framework in which all other trends
develop.
An alternative system can be found at TrendOne, which follows
a bottom-up approach [9]. TrendOne identifies so-called micro-trends
worldwide—concrete innovations that challenge existing approaches and
offer intelligent new solutions. Micro-trends are singular observations,
possibly weak signals. By our definition, they are no trends. However, as
we will see later, micro-trends are very useful for various applications in
trend management.
Thematically related micro-trends are grouped together in the Tren-
dOne systematics to form macro-trends, which describe overarching
changes and are thus real trends according to our definition. The next
highest level is represented by megatrends, which in turn form a bracket
over several macro-trends.
In this system, it is intuitively understandable that micro-trends can
have a high dynamic. Individual micro-trends may not prevail. Others
will come along. Macro-trends are much more stable since the elimi-
nation of individual micro-trends has a limited impact on them. Only
when many micro-trends cease to exist or change significantly will the
macro-trend also be affected. The same applies to megatrends, which
only change when major changes occur at the level of the macro-trends.
This makes the megatrends the most stable trends, but they too can
change over time or even disappear altogether.
The examples from Naisbitt, the Zukunftsinstitut, and TrendOne
show a similar understanding of megatrends, which is essentially founded
on their enormous impact, both in terms of thematic and geographic
breadth as well as a long time span.
Megatrends are long-lasting social, technological, economic, ecological, or

political changes with global significance.
In our very interconnected world, the parameters of duration, theme,

and geography are of course not independent of each other, so that a
more academically precise definition of megatrends would be possible.
For practical application, however, it is relevant to be aware of these three
dimensions during analysis and to consider them appropriately.
Even if there is a similar understanding of the term megatrend
across the board, no uniform cut or designation exists. Table 1.1 shows
megatrends of selected consulting companies. Some megatrends can
only be found in a single source (e.g., Silver Society and New Polit-
ical World (Dis)Order). Others, however, can be found under similar
Table 1.1 Megatrends of selected consulting firms (as of May 2020)

Zukunftsinstitut
[10] TrendOne [9] Z_punkt [11] EY [12]
– Knowledge – Artificial – Demographic – Industry redefined
Culture Intelligence Change – Future of work
– Urbanization – Attention – Anthropogenic – Super consumer
– Connectivity Economy Environmental
– Behavioral design
– Connected World Pollution
– Customization – Adaptive
– Data Era – Social Disparities
– Neo-Ecology regulation
– Distrust Society – New Political
– Globalization – Remapping
World (Dis)Order
– Gender Shift – Food Culture urbanization
– Urbanization
– Health – Future Work – Innovating
– Digital communities
– New Work – Healthstyle
Transformation
– Individualization – Health reimagined
– Mobility – Global Power
– Industry 4.0 – Food by design
– Silver Society Shifts
– Outernet – Molecular
– Safety – Biotechnical
economy
– Seamless Transformation
Commerce – Differentiated
– Sustainability Living
– Transhumanism Environments
– Urbanization – Changed
– Virtual Working
Experiences Environments
– Volatile Economy
– Business
Ecosystems
18 J. Blechschmidt
names in several sources, such as New Work/Future Work/Changed

Working Environments/Future of Work or Health/Healthstyle/Health
reimagined.
The different naming often emphasizes a particular aspect of the
development. Likewise, the specific interpretation of the change can be
different, so that only the accompanying explanation gives a trend its
meaning.
It is not uncommon for the selection and definition of megatrends to
be influenced by the focus of the respective editors’ work. This is easy to
understand, as a trend is a theoretical construct to simplify dealing with
the future, so usability is an important aspect in trend definition. For a
company, however, it also means that it will probably not be sufficient to
rely on the trends of a single institute for its own work.
From a company’s perspective, not all trends are equally interesting.
The focus is usually on developments in the company’s specific industry.
IT companies are concerned with digital trends, logistics companies with
logistics trends, etc., although the groupings can overlap. When taking an
overall look at all trends, the division into the areas of society, technology,
economy, ecology, and politics already mentioned in the megatrend
definition is often found. It originates from a common method for envi-
ronmental analysis STEEP (derived from S ociological, T echnological,
E conomic, E cologic and P olitical Change).
For trend analysis, the classification of trends brings some structure to
the multitude of developments and facilitates the selection of trends that
are relevant for the purpose at hand and therefore should be considered.
In practice, an early definition of a classification scheme suitable for the
company in question is recommended that should then be consistently
maintained.
Your Transfer into Practice
• Look at the last major changes in your industry: Who were the inno-
vators and early adopters in terms of the diffusion model? You should
monitor these groups regularly to catch on to further changes at an
early stage.
• What trends have you been involved with recently? How would you
classify the trends? If technology trends were among them: Where
would you place them on the Hype Cycle?
• Consider which five megatrends from Table 1.1 have the greatest
impact on your company and why? These trends could be candidates
for a systematic trend analysis.
References
1. Rogers, E. M. (1962). Diffusion of innovations. Free Press.
2. Gartner Methodologies. (2020). Gartner hype cycle. https://www.gar
tner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle. Accessed 31 May
2020.
3. Google, Inc.. Google Trends. https://www.google.com/trends. Accessed 09
May 2020.
4. Behnen P. et al. (2020). Whitepaper: Auftreten, Ausmaß und Muster
systematischer Inkonsistenzen in Google Trend Daten. https://doi.org/10.
13140/RG.2.2.33370.98247.
5. Ansoff, H. I. (1976). Managing surprise and discontinuity. Strategic
Responses to Weak Signals. ZfbF., 1976 (28), 129–152.
6. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan. Random House.
7. Nasbitt, J. (1982). Megatrends. Warner Books.
8. Zukunftsinstitut. Trends—Grundlagenwissen. https://www.zukunftsinst
itut.de/artikel/trends-grundlagenwissen. Accessed 31 May 2020.
9. Trendone. Mega-Trends. https://www.trendexplorer.com/en/trends.
Accessed 31 May 2020.
10. Zukunftsinstitut. Megatrends. https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/dossier/
megatrends. Accessed 31 May 2020.
20 J. Blechschmidt
11. Z_punkt. Der neue Blick auf die globale Dynamik des Wandels. https://
www.z-punkt.de/themen/artikel/megatrends. Accessed 31 May 2020.
12. EY. What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption. https://www.meg
atrends2018.com/#megatrends. Accessed 31 May 2020.
2
Excursus: Dealing with Fuzzy Information

• What fuzzy information is.
• Why it cannot be avoided.
• And what this means for trend analysis.
We need trends as a methodological tool to make complex changes

manageable. Without such abstractions and simplifications, the multi-
tude of changes would not be analyzable at all. After all, trends are merely
based on a smaller or larger number of observations. There may be many
relevant developments that have not been seen at all in the process, whose
weak signals have not yet been observed or understood.
Especially in its early phases, a trend is based on a few, mostly qualita-
tive observations. Examples include the gradual change in user or buyer
behavior, the rise of certain political currents, or the first appearance
of a new technology in a scientific publication. Many of these signals
cannot be precisely measured in terms of their impact. There is yet no

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22 J. Blechschmidt
history from which to extrapolate and no set of figures to back up the

presumed development. Only later will statistics and longer term obser-
vations be able to concretize and quantify the changes. Until then, it
remains unclear whether the observed signs were just random events or
really mark the beginning of a new development.
Moreover, weak signals can in principle appear anywhere, geograph-
ically as well as in different markets and industries. We do not have
equally good access to all areas and sufficient understanding to recog-
nize weak signals as such. Thus, much remains unseen. Since trends do
not spread everywhere simultaneously and with the same characteris-
tics, even opposing signals are often found. Depending on the specific
circumstances or specific situations, seemingly contradictory effects can
be observed, which can lead to misinterpretation. Thus, working with
the future is always based on incomplete, abstract, and simplified infor-
mation. This leads to ideas, assumptions, and forecasts based on implicit
or explicit assumptions.
Even if all the information were available with high accuracy and a
clear picture of the future emerged from it, unexpected events can occur
the very next day. Business decisions need a lead time until implementa-
tion and their effects last many years. Investments in the construction
of a new production line, for example, take months to years until
production starts and are only amortized several years later. During this
time, developments will occur that were not foreseeable at the time of
trend analysis. Maybe the competition will not be idle and may also
invest in a production line for similar products. Perhaps, the economic
environment, financing conditions, or markets will change unexpect-
edly. A technological leap could enable significantly more cost-effective
competing products. Decisions made by the company’s own suppliers
and customers also have a concrete impact on the future of the company.
And finally, the company’s own future can be shaped to a considerable
extent by its own decisions.
This poses three fundamental problems for trend analysis.
• The information underlying a trend analysis is never unambiguous.
• The information underlying a trend analysis is never complete.
• Future developments are influenced by decisions and events that
cannot be foreseen at the time of the analysis.
2 Excursus: Dealing with Fuzzy Information 23
The problems mentioned do not stem from poor working practices or

the lack of resources. They cannot be avoided in general. In contrast,
the influence of one’s own decisions—used correctly—represents an
opportunity, not a problem, and can actively shape the future.
In practice, there is also the problem of limited time resources. It
is practically impossible to gather all relevant information. Even the
distinction between relevant and non-relevant information is difficult. In
addition, the sheer volume of information would be impossible to eval-
uate in any meaningful way. The high complexity requires the reduction
to a manageable number and level of detail of the factors to be consid-
ered. This is where the circle closes because this is exactly what trend
analysis attempts to do.
Trends are the attempt to identify and bring to attention the impor-
tant developments from the multitude of changes. They reduce the
complexity of the real world to a manageable level and enable analytical
work with the future via the emerging structure.
Trend analysis must consider the inevitable fuzziness in its method-
ology, both when making statements about the future and when deriving
recommendations. It provides important impulses and brings new, often
surprising aspects to attention. In this way, it triggers important discus-
sions. In the case of specific questions, trend analysis must provide
answers with sufficient confidence and must not conceal the inherent
uncertainty.
Statements about the future are never final answers. They always require
regular review.
• Be aware that trend analysis does not allow mathematically exact

conclusions.
3
Trend Analysis in Companies

• How trend analysis supports business decisions.
• The kind of business tasks that profit from trend analysis.
• That trend analysis must set different priorities depending on its
intended use.
• Company units where trend analysis can be located.
3.1 Business Decisions

Every day, countless decisions are made in a company. Most of them have
a small scope and a limited impact. This may be the purchase of a new
computer or the allocation of tasks in a team. Other decisions, however,
have an impact on the company as a whole or on larger parts of it. They
actively shape the future of the respective company. Since such decisions
are usually not easy to reverse, a good basis for decision-making is of
great importance.

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26 J. Blechschmidt
Trend Analysis Supports Business Decisions by

• identifying foreseeable changes in the business environment,
• identifying opportunities and risks for the company, and
• identifying potential decision-making needs at an early stage.
Strategic decisions such as entering new markets, launching new prod-

ucts, and building up new manufacturing capacities have long lead times
and incur high costs that are not amortized until many years later. For
this period, the important base conditions must be estimated with suffi-
cient certainty, otherwise, the profitability of the planned activities is at
risk.
Early recognition of changes in the environment leads to the iden-
tification of new opportunities and possible threats. Opportunities can
be exploited earlier than the competition; threats can be mitigated by
appropriate strategies. Both lead to greater long-term business success.
Since every company knows its specific business environment very
well, many decisions, especially when they affect a company’s core
markets and products, are made without trend analysis. The assump-
tion is that the relevant environment will not change surprisingly in the
period concerned. However, the longer the period, the more unrealistic
this hypothesis becomes. It is not uncommon to find out in retrospect
that one has been surprised by events that had been foreseeable for a long
time.
Business decisions are often made by several people who, based on
their individual knowledge and experience, have different assumptions
about future developments. Discussing trend insights leads to a joint
picture of the future and enables sound decisions shared by all individ-
uals. This includes understanding the risk that the future could, after all,
develop differently than assumed in today’s forecasts.
The insights attained through trend analysis also enable subsequent
reviews in case of new events. The basis for decision-making is docu-
mented and transparent. If these assumptions later turn out to be
incorrect, the decisions based on them must also be reassessed and revised
if necessary.
3.2 Application Areas

A solid picture of the future is helpful for every long-term decision a
company makes. Accordingly, the benefits of trend analysis are manifold.
Use of Trend Analysis in Companies

• Strategic corporate alignment,
• Strategic planning,
• Product innovation,
• Strategic innovation,
• Investment decisions,
• Stimulating impulses, and
• Risk management.
Depending on the specific purpose, there are two basic approaches to

trend analysis. The outside-in approach starts with the analysis of one or
more trends and derives implications for the company. In the inside-out
approach, the focus is on a specific issue, which is then examined from
the perspective of individual trends. Depending on the task, one or the
other approach is more advantageous.
Strategic Corporate Alignment
The strategic orientation of a company sets the fundamental course for

its future development. The results are usually formulated as a mission
(corporate purpose) in conjunction with a vision (concrete corporate
goal). Corporate values and guidelines set the framework for operational
implementation.
The overarching corporate purpose, the mission, describes the general
task of the company in terms of a benefit that the company wants to
create and may remain unchanged for decades. The mission is formulated
in a general and technology-neutral way and should be independent of
technological and social change. Conversely, if the business environment
changes, the mission should provide direction as to how the company
28 J. Blechschmidt
should adapt to the change. Accordingly, trends play a subordinate role

in the formulation of the mission.
A vision, on the other hand, refers to a specific point in time in the
future well beyond the usual planning cycles. Five to ten years are typical
time horizons. Industries with long investment cycles, such as in the
chemical or energy sectors, often think in much longer time frames. In
the case of software or electronics companies with significantly shorter
product life cycles, the vision lies occasionally only 2–5 years in the
future.
The vision is a milestone of the mission. It formulates qualitative and
often quantitative goals for a target year but does not specify how to get
there. A good vision usually carries much of the current company along
and sets priorities for further development. However, it leaves a lot of
leeway for entrepreneurial implementation.
Since the vision aims at a desirable state in the future, it must neces-
sarily be based on a detailed understanding of future developments.
Otherwise, a state could be pursued that seems desirable today but turns
out to be less attractive in the future. Accordingly, trend analysis brings
clarity to the future business environment and the associated oppor-
tunities and risks. It looks beyond today’s focus and brings previously
unknown development opportunities to attention.
A clear picture of the future with all its opportunities and risks is an
important basis for strategic corporate alignment. However, the develop-
ment of a coherent overall picture consisting of mission, vision, values,
and guidelines requires much more than just a sound picture of the
future. Trend analysis must therefore be combined with other methods
of mission and vision development.
Strategic Planning
With strategic planning, companies determine the main fields of action

and budgets for the coming years. Typically, a period of 3 years is consid-
ered, but only the first year is planned out in detail. The planning process
takes place annually at most companies.
The starting point for strategic planning is an analysis of the business

environment and the company’s own positioning in the market: market
growth and segmentation, customer demands and behavior, product
offerings in the market, competitors, strength/weakness profiles (e.g.,
SWOT analysis), portfolio analysis, and much more. In addition to the
markets in which the company is currently active, markets and market
segments in which it plans to enter are considered.
Moreover, the company’s operational setup is analyzed, production
and sales processes, geographic positioning, innovation activities, etc.
The company’s organizational structure is also examined. In addition
to any necessary adjustments to the organization, in particular the
upcoming investment requirements are determined.
Trend analysis supports strategic planning with fundamental insights
into changes in the business environment. Social trends, for example,
show how customer behavior is changing. Market trends provide indi-
cations of optimal sales positioning. Technology trends lead to new
possibilities for production or the optimization of internal processes. The
time horizon of the trend analysis is derived from the selected plan-
ning period and is thus shorter than in the case of strategic corporate
alignment.
Smaller companies often have no or only a very lean institutional-
ized planning process. Strategic planning takes place on an ad hoc basis,
for example, in the run-up to major investments or larger changes. Due
to the lower complexity in terms of product variety, markets served,
and regional positioning, there are significantly fewer factors to be
considered. Accordingly, trend analysis can be carried out with stronger
focus.
Product Innovation
In order to remain competitive, companies must constantly evolve their

range of products and services. On the one hand, customer demand and
requirements change, and on the other, competitors compete in the same
markets. In addition to the actual product and its properties, product
innovations also include changes in handling, design, service, and accom-
panying service offerings. Innovations to improve production, logistics,
30 J. Blechschmidt
and other corporate processes are also included. These are also “prod-
ucts”, just at a different stage of the value chain—which is immediately
understandable if they are applied to manufacture a supplier’s product.
Market and social trends show how the wishes and needs of today’s
customers are changing and which new customer segments will emerge.
This makes it possible to anticipate needs for which market offers do not
yet exist. The analysis of technical trends reveals opportunities to serve
these customers with innovative products or to produce existing products
more cost-effectively using new methods. This makes trend analysis a
powerful source of inspiration for the innovation process.
Young, fast-growing market segments represent a particular opportu-
nity, in which a company can position itself with attractive products early
on to occupy a strong position right from the start. Trend analysis is
a suitable tool for recognizing emerging markets at an early stage and
identifying business and innovation potential there.
Identification of New Fields of Innovation
Trends show future developments and provide indications of previously

unknown needs and opportunities. By combining several trends, it is
possible to identify starting points for potentially new innovation fields.
For example, the combination of the megatrends knowledge culture,
health, and aging society suggests that an attractive market for senior
education could develop around health issues. In the future, older people
may not only want to passively seek advice from a doctor, but increas-
ingly build up their own understanding. This target group could now be
addressed with an offer specifically tuned to their needs.
Initially, this is only a hypothesis that needs to be substantiated by
further research. Tracking down the first innovators or early adopters in
the sense of the diffusion model would substantiate the hypothesis. A
concrete opportunity would be identified!
The observation period of trend analysis can be derived from the life
cycle of typical products of the company, from the start of development
to market launch and final discontinuation. This way, it generates an
understanding of the trend developments over the complete economi-
cally relevant time span of a new product development.
For product innovation itself, concrete approaches are sought which

can be realized in a timely manner and which must also be matched by
demand. Thus, the analysis focuses on the more short-term aspects of a
trend. In practice, impulses identified via trend analysis, such as micro-
trends, weak signals, and already existing, highly innovative products
from other companies, are used as concrete inspiration for the innovation
process and are discussed in the context of one’s own company.
Strategic Innovation
While product innovation is about new offerings for markets in which

the company is already active, or at best for adjacent markets, strategic
innovation focuses on fundamentally changing the offering. A company’s
business shall not just be improved but shall become fundamen-
tally different. Accordingly, the search focus of trend analysis is on
major, possibly disruptive changes. Therefore, the search is deliberately
conducted outside the known corporate environment.
For example, it is searched for new markets that are not yet visible or
are very small today but will grow strongly in the future driven by trends.
Technology trends can enable new product classes that were previously
impossible or too difficult to manufacture. In addition, new options for
internal corporate processes can emerge, for example, for production,
administration, or sales. New pricing, service and business models could
also become possible. The increase in platform business models is even
understood as a trend in its own right. Identified starting points are then
systematically analyzed for their relevance to the company’s business.
Likewise, threats and risks are explicitly sought. This enables the
company to react at an early stage should a threat become reality.
However, proactive action can also open up new opportunities, for
example, through the early realignment of threatened business parts or
even the sale of a business unit at a time when its market value is still
high.
32 J. Blechschmidt
Every change contains opportunities and risks. The earlier these are recog-
nized, the more advantageously opportunities can be exploited and risks
avoided.
Investment Decisions
An investment is the use of financial resources for a long-term purpose,

such as the construction of a building, the purchase of a production line,
the development of a new product, and the entry into a new market.
In the process, high expenditures are initially made, which costs plus
a premium must be earned back by the investment object during the
following years. The premium is made up of the financing costs, a reason-
able profit, and a risk markup depending on the type of investment. The
payback period is the period in which the capital invested, including the
premium, flows back to the company.
To make an investment decision, management must be convinced
that the investment will pay off in the long term. Therefore, invest-
ment calculations are carried out based on assumptions about the future
development of key parameters, such as markets, value chains, energy
prices, and political conditions. The trend analysis focuses on the condi-
tions relevant to the investment project in question, analyzing their
development and identifying possible risks. It provides the fundamental
assumptions on which the investment calculation is based.
Practice Tip
In the practice of investment calculations, the decisive parameters are

often considered in isolation and without a systematic trend method-
ology. If energy prices are an important cost factor of the investment,
for example, the increase in energy prices might be extrapolated linearly
into the future in a basic scenario. To assess the risk, a pessimistic scenario
with sharply rising energy prices and an optimistic scenario with less rising
prices are also calculated. For short investment periods, this approach
may be sufficient. For long payback periods, there is a risk of signifi-

cantly larger changes that only become apparent when external factors
are considered.
Stimulating Impulses
Trends that are expected to have a major impact on the company are
analyzed independently of specific issues. First, the trend is considered in
the diversity of its developments, irrespective of the company’s industry
and business purpose. The specific situation of the own enterprise is to be
ignored, in order not to sort out relevant information hastily. Only after
the research has been completed are the findings interpreted in terms
of the specific company concerns. Emerging opportunities and risks are
derived, whereby all aspects of the company such as products, markets,
processes, technologies, and workforce are examined.
Since the results are likely to contain suggestions for many areas
within the company, they are often summarized in the form of a trend
report and communicated within the company. Significant findings are
presented individually to the relevant departments and concrete activities
are initiated.
Risk Management
Companies such as stock corporations and limited liability companies

are legally obliged to manage their risks. Even for companies that do not
fall under this legal obligation, the requirement to deal with possible risks
within an appropriate framework is derived from the legal duties of care.
In addition to the identification and assessment of risks, risk manage-
ment also includes the derivation of avoidance strategies and adequate
actions in the event of occurrence.
Trend analysis can contribute important insights, particularly in the
identification and assessment of long-term, fundamental threats; it can
also point at possible countermeasures at an early stage. Some risks are
triggered by individual events that are difficult to predict. For this, it is
34 J. Blechschmidt
less important to look at trend developments than to analyze a company’s

weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
In practice, trend monitoring is rarely initiated by risk management.
However, the findings of trend analyses flow into risk management as
one source of information.
A Word About Start-Ups
Many new trend developments are exploited by start-ups, which often

develop innovative products and services much earlier than established
companies can. Their business models are specifically geared to a newly
identified opportunity right from the start. Unlike established compa-
nies, they do not have to take existing structures and business relation-
ships into account. Even more so, they can position themselves outside
established value chains and, in the long term, perhaps even disruptively
change an existing market as a result. Also, the initial business potential
is usually small and thus not very attractive for established companies.
However, many start-ups fail because they misjudge developments or
rely on a technology that is still immature. If start-ups are successful,
however, they can occupy a market niche early on and, with a market
growing strongly driven by a trend, occupy a strong position from the
start that they can defend even when established companies enter the
market later.
In most cases, however, it is not a systematic trend analysis that leads to
the founding of an innovative start-up. New start-up ideas are regularly
based on specific experiences and knowledge of the key people behind
the start-up. More important than a general understanding of trend
developments is the ability to develop and successfully launch concrete
offerings and implement suitable (innovative) business models. However,
the backing of the business idea by strong trends is a frequent investment
criterion of major financiers.
For established companies, systematic observation of the start-up
scene is an element of trend analysis. Successes and failures as well as
the behavior of venture capitalists provide very concrete information on
young trends—an important basis for established companies to decide
about their own entry into a new market.
Even though trend analysis creates added value in all the applica-
tion areas mentioned, the focus can differ significantly from company
to company. Particularly when introducing a systematic approach, it is
advisable to initially focus on the areas where the greatest benefit is
expected.
3.3 Organizational Anchoring

Trend analysis is a strategic activity. It is independent of the day-to-day
operational processes of a company and is therefore regularly a task of
the strategy department. Bigger companies maintain dedicated individ-
uals or teams. In large corporations, one occasionally finds independent
corporate foresight departments.
Medium-sized companies often do not have large strategy depart-
ments. The task of trend analysis is then assigned to other departments.
Companies that operate close to the end customer focus on market and
social trends. Accordingly, trend analysis is often located in the marketing
department. In technology-based companies, responsibility regularly lies
in technical areas such as research or pre-development units.
Many companies also do not deal with trends throughout the year,
but only in the run-up to strategic planning or on an ad hoc basis in
connection with upcoming major decisions. The analysis takes place in
the form of a project, with the acting people being drawn together or
involved from different parts of the company.
Companies often have only limited resources for trend work, and
resort to trend studies and external service providers for this purpose.
In this way, a great deal of trend knowledge can be brought into the
company. However, the interpretation of the information to the specific
situation of the company can only be done by people who are very
familiar with all company specifics. Things to be considered are described
in Chap. 9.
For the sake of simplicity, the persons carrying out the trend analysis
are in this book referred to as the trend team, irrespective of how many
people they are, where they are located in the organization, and whether
they work together permanently or only for a limited time.
36 J. Blechschmidt
• Consider in which past decisions a better understanding of future

developments would have been useful.
• In which application areas of your company do you expect trend
analysis to add the most value?
• Determine the organizational anchoring of trend analysis in your
company.
4
Trend Research: Collecting Trend
Information

• A wide range of possible research sources.
• The classification of the researched information into time horizons.
• An assessment of how the future might change in each time horizon.
4.1 Research
Every trend analysis starts with the search for information. Initially, the
broadest possible information is researched and collected. An interpreta-
tion of the information is deliberately postponed in order not to focus
on a specific picture at an early stage, which would inevitably lead to a
bias in the further search.

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38 J. Blechschmidt
Typical Research Sources

• Classical media (newspapers, magazines, technical literature …);
• Scientific publications;
• Websites of trend and consulting companies;
• Databases of trend and consulting companies;
• Free Internet search;
• Start-ups and innovation leading companies;
• Company announcements and financial announcements;
• Patent applications;
• Fairs, conferences, and seminars;
• Futures conferences;
• Study trips;
• Internal and external networks.
A good place to start your research are publications and websites of

trend and consulting companies. Much basic information is provided
free of charge, while others can be purchased. Many other companies
also publish their trend studies as part of corporate marketing. Even
though these documents are written from the specific perspective of the
publisher, they are a good starting point for your own research.
For each megatrend and many smaller trends, relatively extensive,
freely available material can thus be found on the Internet. This initial
information base generates many keywords that can be used to research
further information that is accessible via the Internet but is no longer
directly linked to the trend name.
Still, the classic media such as newspapers, magazines, and specialist
literature are productive sources of information. Scientific publications
serve as a source of the latest developments. Research can be conducted
into start-ups, company and financial announcements, patent appli-
cations, and much more. It is worthwhile to look more closely at
companies that are profiting from the trend in one way or another or
already have a corresponding offering on the market.
Some trend consultancies offer fee-based databases with structured
trend information. Modern databases use automated searches supported
by artificial intelligence (for example [1]). They offer a logical structure
and many options for targeted searches. The spectrum ranges from quali-
tative trend impulses to quantitative information. For many topics, good
databases can significantly simplify one’s own research and thus save a
lot of time. In particular, they provide a quick initial overview of the
variety of trends (see, for example, Table 1.1) as well as a useful classifi-
cation scheme, such as the classification into megatrends, macro-trends,
and micro-trends by the company TrendOne presented in Sect. 1.6.
Not all sources of information are immediately available. Participation
in trade fairs, conferences, or seminars with thematic proximity to the
trend often provides a compact introduction to a little-known topic. The
timing of the events does not always fit the schedule of the trend analysis.
Nevertheless, shortly after the selection of the trend, it is worthwhile to
check the events of typical organizers for suitable offers. Conversely, one
of these events can be the starting point for an analysis.
Futures conferences cover a broad range of topics and investigate the
more distant future. The content is often visionary and provocative,
bringing surprising and unusual developments to attention. Engaging
with the thoughts and ways of thinking of futurists and futurologists
broadens one’s own horizon and opens the eyes to unconventional possi-
bilities. Futures conferences do have specific focuses, but the relevant
information for a specific trend is often limited.
There is a big difference between reading and hearing reports about
innovations and having seen them with one’s own eyes. Each report
is already only a part of the truth by the selection of facts that are
mentioned or remain unmentioned. With the goal of trend analysis
for the own company, one would probably ask different questions and
interpret the answers from a different perspective. Therefore, to substan-
tiate important findings—where possible—it is recommended to gain
your own impression. Traveling to regions where signs or effects of the
trend can be directly observed or visiting companies that are considered
pioneers in the topic deepens one’s own understanding and enables better
interpretation of secondary research. Why not try a technical innovation
yourself? Or at least talk to someone who has already used it?
Often, a lot of knowledge about a trend already exists within the
company. It’s worth involving progressive divisions and departments that
may already be dealing with individual aspects as part of their job. Even
if their focus is on current and, compared to a trend analysis, rather
short-term developments, valuable knowledge can easily be absorbed.
40 J. Blechschmidt
A great deal of knowledge is also contained in the heads of individual

employees, many of whom might be involved with potentially relevant
topics outside of their business tasks. This may be an employee with
a technical education who keeps up to date in his or her former area
of expertise. Or people who, due to their private background, have a
particular affinity for a specific trend development. Because the special-
ized knowledge of these individuals is often not visible in the professional
environment, they are difficult to identify. Through a call for support at
the start of a trend analysis, such people can get in touch with the trend
team.
Over time, a network builds up within the company that can repeat-
edly be used for subsequent trend analyses. Hence, the contacts must
be regularly cultivated, for example, by inviting them to internal events
and providing them with interesting trend information. The more closely
the individuals feel connected, the more helpful the network is for the
analysis.
Practice Tip
In addition to collecting information, an internal company network

anchors the trend analysis broadly within the company. This increases its
acceptance and enhances the subsequent effectiveness of the results.
In addition to internal company networks, external networks play a

special role in trend research. They enable an exchange between different
companies and industries. Since each participant brings a different
perspective specific to his or her situation, surprising insights with high
added value for trend analysis often emerge. Trend analysts are often
broadly connected beyond their own company, not least due to their
frequent participation in external events where contacts are made.
External networks focus on overarching developments in which the
business competition among the participating companies does not yet
play a role, so that a free exchange of ideas is possible. It is only when
the specific findings are interpreted that appropriate caution is advised in
discussions with other companies that might become competitors.
Some consultants bring companies together in trend networks and

take care of the organization and professional exchange. Examples
include the Future Circle of the Zukunftsinstitut [2] and the Rulebreaker
Society [3]. In addition, there are self-organized networks of trend teams
from different companies that maintain a regular exchange and often
meet several times a year. The organization of the meetings is usually
rotated among the participants so that the effort is evenly distributed.
Equally important are the informal, personal networks that often build
up over years and have no fixed organizational framework.
When trend research begins, the trend team starts with easily accessible
information sources that have proven themselves in the past. This quickly
establishes an initial basic understanding, which is then deliberately
expanded. Structuring the information reveals gaps in knowledge, which
are then researched in more detail. Some sources cannot be accessed
immediately because relevant events take place at a later time or impor-
tant people in a network cannot be reached. Assumptions will turn out
to be wrong or insignificant. Increasing understanding will lead to loops
and iterations. Important technical papers will need to be reread, initial
conversations further explored. As the research process can be structured
in the beginning, it will later be driven by the interplay between gaining
understanding and the need for further information.
4.2 Time Horizons

In most cases, the focus of trend analysis is on a period of up to 10 years.
On the one hand, this covers most of the time scales relevant for a
company. On the other hand, reliable statements about a more distant
future are difficult. The longer the time, the more unpredictable events
will influence the future that are not visible by any signal today and
thus cannot be researched. Statements about the distant future must
necessarily remain qualitative.
For the purpose of analysis, the future can be roughly divided into
four time horizons, as shown in Table 4.1. As will be explained later, the
drivers of change within these time horizons originate primarily from
different areas, with the range of possible influencing factors becoming
42 J. Blechschmidt
Table 4.1 Time horizons of trend analysis

Risk of
Future Period Main driver of change disruption
Near <3 years Direct environment Low but
present
Medium 3–5 years Additionally: foreign Moderate
environment
Distant 6–10 years Additionally: all known High
factors
Far distant >10 years Additional: unknown Probable
factors
increasingly larger over time. In addition, the risk of disruption increases,

i.e., the probability of surprising events with major effects that cannot be
anticipated analytically.
The period figures are to be understood as a rough guide, which
may vary depending on the general pace of change in an industry and
many other factors. Nor are there any sharp boundaries between the
time periods. Rather, they represent a mental grid to classify the possible
effects of various influencing factors in terms of time to ensure a balanced
analysis across the time horizons. Figure 4.1 assigns the various sources
of information to the time horizons.
Present and Near Future (<3 Years)
When we look at the future, we look for the new, perhaps the one devel-
opment that will change the world. But we should always be aware that
Internal and external networks

Trend and consulting companies
Start-ups, innovation leaders
Study trips
Patent applications
Internet, classical media
Scientific publications
Fairs, conference, seminars
Company announcements Futures conferences
Near future Medium future Distant future Far distant future

Today 3 years 6 years 10 years
Fig. 4.1 Research sources according to temporal focus

the next few years will not be much different from the present. The
new car model will be on offer unchanged for a few years. Even if only
electric cars were bought from tomorrow onwards, there will still be gas
stations for many years to supply the remaining conventional cars with
fuel. And cars with classic engines will continue to dominate the road
for the time being. So, the future as a whole will not change immedi-
ately. For the specific future of the automotive industry, however, such a
scenario would be disruptive.
The near future is essentially fed by existing developments.
Tomorrow’s innovative products are already in development today, broad
social changes are already in place on a small scale, and political decisions
are being discussed in committees. In the big picture, these changes are
not yet noticeable and are therefore not yet the present for most people
until they start to surface and become increasingly visible. A detailed
understanding of the present in the variety of its facets thus provides a
good glimpse into the near future.
Only developments with a short implementation time influence the
near future. If the lead time becomes too long, they fall out of the period
under consideration. They may already be visible, but they change events
only insignificantly. Therefore, the most relevant changes originate from
the direct environment of a company, its customers, its business partners,
the countries in which it operates, etc. In some respects, the company
could even be a pioneer itself. For this reason, trend logic mixes the
present state of a trend with the near future.
In the sense of the diffusion model according to Rogers described
earlier, the behavior of the early adopters enables an assessment of the
near future. This is where innovations emerge that can soon lead to
changes on a broad scale. Since this group of people already accounts
for a significant 12.5% of the total population, information about their
behavior is visible in many places and can be found in suitable sources.
Identified developments can usually be projected into the future
for short periods of time. Fundamental conditions will not change so
quickly. Thus, the near future can be described well. But of course,
important signals may simply not have been discovered. Innovative
companies also like to keep their developments secret from their
44 J. Blechschmidt
competitors. Despite the relatively short period of time, surprising

influences can therefore never be ruled out completely.
Medium Future (3–5 Years)
The medium future is the continuation of the near future, but not neces-
sarily in a linear way. Science fiction author William Gibson put it in
the words “The future is already here. It’s just unevenly distributed” [4].
Somewhere, every trend appears for the first time. What is already a
reality for pioneers is yet to come for others. The challenge is to identify
the interesting regions or industries that are ahead of the trend curve.
The longer time frame implies that research can no longer be limited
to one’s own environment. One must look across industry and country
boundaries.
We look to Silicon Valley in the U.S. to avoid missing the next big
digital trend, or to Japan to understand the impact of an aging society.
We see innovative smartphone-based business models in Africa and how
outer space is getting in the focus of governments and increasingly
private companies internationally. The key is to analyze whether and how
the developments we see will impact our business environment.
In the sense of Rogers’ diffusion model, the focus now shifts to the
small group of innovators. These must be identified, and their ideas and
solutions analyzed. Today’s start-ups can change established industries
in 3–6 years if they are successful, as is currently happening through
Fintechs in the financial sector. Concrete business models and inno-
vations that challenge existing approaches and offer intelligent new
solutions are possible starting points of major changes. However, not
every innovation is adopted by larger parts of the population. Many
things remain in the niche or disappear again. The uncertainty of the
forecast increases.
But even the medium future will not be all that different from the
present in many respects. It is true that there are sectors or areas that
are characterized by high dynamics. Others, however, are developing
slowly. They may only be influenced by secondary effects. To stay with
the example of the financial industry, Fintechs are directly changing the
financial industry. However, the innovative financial products that are
emerging are also influencing consumers’ payment behavior and will be

changing the retail sector as a result.
Distant Future (6–10 Years)
The further we investigate the future, the greater the uncertainties

become. If the medium future was already influenced by factors outside
the immediate environment, changes are now increasingly occurring that
are not even foreseeable today. Within 10 years, things can arise that we
cannot yet imagine. Who would have thought in the days of corded tele-
phony that a few years later we would be reachable everywhere in the
world under the same phone number? And now we “text” and “chat”
rather than making phone calls—words that didn’t even exist in that
context back then.
We know from the past that major events regularly occur that change
the world to a greater extent. Financial and economic crises can challenge
basic economic systems, countries can open up or close off politically,
and another pandemic changes social coexistence. Such developments
can have dramatic consequences for some companies, while others
benefit from the change. The probability of disruptive events is also
increasing over time. It is highly likely that we will see disruptive events
in a time horizon of 10 years. We just can’t tell yet what they will look
like and whether they will have an impact on our company.
Nevertheless, to gain a picture of the distant future, on the one hand,
already recognizable changes must be researched. On the other hand, the
probability of disruptive events must be considered during analysis. How
to deal with disruptions is explained in Sect. 5.1. At this point, we want
to focus on the detection of early signals.
Early precursors in the field of technologies can be found in university
environments and the research laboratories of large companies. Especially
in basic research, most companies work closely with academia, so that
many impulses can be taken from scientific publications. This requires
specialist expertise, which is usually not available in the required breadth
within the company but can be bought in externally.
The translation of scientific findings into future applications is also
difficult. The path from a research result to its application does not run
46 J. Blechschmidt
in a straight line and is influenced by a wide variety of factors. Realization

times are also highly uncertain. Thus, usually only very general findings
can be obtained, but their significance can be considerable.
In the period of the distant future, attention is generally focused on
overarching changes. For example, the desire for individual mobility
will very likely continue to increase in the distant future. The current
dynamics in the technical development of autonomous driving, the
increasing coordination of mobility chains, and an ever easier access of
the traveler to a variety of different mobility solutions already sketches
a pretty good picture. Nevertheless, political decisions, cost and income
developments, possible technological leaps, and much more will change
the setting. It would therefore be daring to try to forecast which vehi-
cles—from trains to private or shared cars, buses, cabs, bicycles, and
e-scooters—will be available and to what extent.
Many of these overarching changes have already been described in
terms of trends. In the time frame of the distant future, interactions
among the trends are very likely. The known trends can be examined for
their potential influence, and secondary mechanisms of action should
also be considered. For example, a social trend can change consumer
habits, which can affect the demand for certain product categories and
thus accelerate or slow down a technology development.
To identify probable (and improbable) interactions, a creative
approach is recommended in which a wide variety of possibilities, even
those that initially seem crazy, are first collected and in a second step
tested for their meaningfulness. A creative approach helps to break
through thought patterns based on the past, which may no longer be
valid in the future, but prevent us from recognizing the whole range of
possible developments.
Because of many future decision points, research on the distant future
always provides a spectrum of possibilities instead of a single picture.
Many aspects can no longer be researched but must be derived argumen-
tatively from other information. Understanding the dependencies and
mechanisms is an important research result and helps to evaluate possible
alternative trend developments.
For the distant future, the picture of the medium future forms the
starting point for the newly researched impulses. The developments iden-
tified for the medium future will continue to a large extent but must
be combined with the new findings and merged into an overall picture.
In the process, several possible images of the future will emerge, repre-
senting equally valid answers to the question of how the distant future
will be like.
Far Distant Future (>10 Years)
The far distant future develops out of the distant future, which is
already fraught with great uncertainties. We must additionally reckon
with factors that do not even exist today and that we would possibly
consider absurd if we knew them. Much of this cannot be identified
during research. Accordingly, it is difficult to develop a concrete picture
of the future.
Even if the details of the distant future cannot be predicted, basic char-
acteristics can certainly be derived. Megatrends, which last much longer
than 10 years, provide a rough framework. A company whose business
is based on offerings around a specific megatrend will therefore operate
in an attractive market also in the long term. If several megatrends come
together, the probability of a positive environment increases further.
In addition to megatrends, other sources also provide good indica-
tions. In September 2015, the United Nations agreed on 17 “Sustainable
Development Goals” to be achieved by 2030 [5]. The mere fact that
these goals have become the focus of governments means that we can
expect increased activity in these areas that will shape the future. Polit-
ical agendas or targets set by global institutions thus provide indications
of likely changes.
UN Sustainable Development Goals [5]
• No poverty;
• Zero hunger;
• Good health and well-being;
48 J. Blechschmidt
• Quality education;
• Gender equality;
• Clean water and sanitation;
• Affordable and clean energy;
• Decent work and economic growth;
• Industry, innovation, and infrastructure;
• Reduced inequalities;
• Sustainable cities and communities;
• Responsible consumption and production;
• Climate action;
• Life below water;
• Life on land;
• Peace, justice, and strong institutions;
• Partnerships for the goals.
The distant future will be very different from the present in many
respects. But not everything will change. Many basic conditions, such
as the culture and values of a society, will evolve only slightly even
over a decade. Also, basic human needs and motivations, such as those
described by Maslow’s pyramid of needs [6], will provide guard rails for
future developments within which the future will play out.
• Create a good base of information sources for trend research that

adequately covers all time horizons.
• Seek contact with trend analysts from other companies and futurolo-
gists and start building your own network.
• Network with other units in the company that have or need futures
knowledge for their work.
• Use the information sources now available to research an initial trend.
To do this, first select a popular trend for which there is a lot of
information.
• Are you satisfied with the results of your research? If not, expand your
research sources.
References
1. Itonics. Scout—Mit KI-basierter Recherche zu relevanten Erkenntnissen.
https://www.itonics-innovation.de/itonics-scout-umfeldscanning/. Accessed
30 Aug 2020.
2. Zukunftsinstitut. Future circle. https://www.onlineshop.zukunftsinstitut.de/
future-circle/. Accessed 30 Aug 2020.
3. Rulebreaker Society. Rulebreaker society. https://www.rulebreaker-society.
com/. Accessed 30 Aug 2020.
4. Süddeutsche Zeitung. (2019). Neues wagen. https://www.sueddeutsche.de/
kolumne/sz-werkstatt-neues-wagen-1.4532028. Accessed 05 Aug .2020.
5. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Sustainable
development goals. https://www.sdgs.un.org/goals. Accessed 21 July 2021.
6. Maslow A. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review,
50 (4).
5
Trend Analysis: Understanding Effects

• A pragmatic methodology for structuring trend information.
• A procedure for analyzing a trend with its mechanisms of interaction.
• How the signs of a trend can be systematically thought forward into
the future.
• How the findings can be applied to the specific situation of a company.
5.1 Analysis
The analysis puts the researched information obtained from research
into an overarching context and creates a cohesive, consistent picture.
However, since we are dealing with the future, there is no objective
right or wrong. The assessment of information quality is now joined
by implicit or explicit assumptions about its influence on the future.
Chapter 6 explains some typical thinking errors that can occur during
this process.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_5
52 J. Blechschmidt
In practice, a wide variety of approaches can be found for analyzing

the researched information. The methodology presented here leads to
a holistic, comprehensive approach to trend analysis and, via this, to a
largely neutral view of the future. Human idiosyncrasies such as an overly
optimistic view of developments that one personally considers desirable
are avoided, and the eye for signals that are today still difficult to see is
sharpened.
The depth and scope of the analysis depend on the objective. Some
trend analyses are content with identifying impulses for the innova-
tion process. Others aim at concrete recommendations for management
action and are the starting point for important strategic decisions. In the
latter, the analysis phase is as time-consuming as the research. In addi-
tion, the need for further information often arises during analysis, so that
research and analysis influence each other.
Practice Tip
A coherent methodology is an important quality feature of trend analysis.

A lot is written about the future, but not all of it is a good basis for
business decisions.
To develop a coherent picture of the future, the large amount of infor-

mation collected must be structured and brought into a logical context.
One way of doing this is to use the trend microcosm presented here (◉
Fig. 5.1).
It contains five categories: the trend itself and the four shaping
elements: drivers, demand , framework conditions, and disruptors, to which
the researched information is assigned. The arrows between the categories
symbolize mutual influence.
• The center contains the selected trend at the time of analysis.
• Drivers lead to new or changed manifestations of the trend.
• Demand describes the benefit and the need for the trend.
• Framework conditions define the boundaries within which the trend
can develop.
Disruptors
Drivers Trend Demand
Framework conditions
Fig. 5.1 The trend microcosm
• Disruptors are surprising events that can destroy established mecha-

nisms.
Category Trend
In the trend category, the selected trend is described in its current state.
All identified signs and characteristics are collected here. Initially, this
does not involve a formulated description, but rather the pure assign-
ment and structuring of the available information. The basis for this is a
clear definition and delimitation of the trend under consideration.
Category Drivers
Drivers directly influence the trend. This category collects all factors that
have a direct impact on trend development. These can be supporting
technologies, the availability of skilled personnel, favorable cost devel-
opments, and much more. Many drivers have already been identified
54 J. Blechschmidt
during the research. Others can usually be derived from the signs and
manifestations listed in the trend category.
For a neutral trend evaluation, however, not only the positive factors
but also the negative, inhibiting drivers are collected. This enables the
weighing of both types later and prevents the overestimation of the trend
development in the analysis.
For drivers, the key questions are: What enables the trend? What is
driving it? What inhibits it?
Category Demand
The demand category is about groups of people and areas that benefit
or suffer from trend development, since any change inevitably leads to
losers who will oppose trend development. These groups can promote a
trend, block it, or steer it in a different direction. The demand in these
groups can also increase or decrease or change qualitatively. The demand
category thus corresponds to the desire for the trend.
The decisive factor here is the perceived added value compared to the
previous state, which can be perceived differently by different groups.
Rogers’ diffusion model shows that the perception as added value is an
important prerequisite, but only represents the beginning of the diffusion
curve. The temporal component must be appropriately considered in the
analysis.
Key questions in the demand category are: Who or what benefits?
Who or what loses?
Category Framework Conditions
A trend cannot be viewed in isolation from its environment. The existing

framework conditions limit the possibilities for its development. They
define the playing field and lay down the rules of the game. Framework
conditions can be beneficial to trend development or stand in the way of
it.
The framework conditions include all factors of the environment that
are stable compared to the dynamics of the trend development. These
include laws and regulations, the political environment, and the social
acceptance of certain changes. Technical, but also social, cultural, and

religious norms are included, values and basic beliefs. These factors
often show strong regional differences, which can lead to different trend
developments in different countries and cultures.
The distinction from the category drivers comes from the stability of
the factors over time. For a short time span, for example, the political
environment can be considered stable. For longer time horizons, elec-
tions can change the political environment so that it no longer represents
a fixed framework condition. Accordingly, when considering compara-
tively short time periods, even megatrends can be part of the framework
conditions as overarching changes in the environment.
Key questions of the framework conditions are: Which framework
conditions are supportive? Which constrain?
Category Disruptors
The categories drivers, demand, and framework conditions provide an

analytical approach to deriving a probable trend development. The
researched information can be found there, supplemented by further
factors resulting from other considerations. However, the future can only
be partially derived analytically.
With the disruptors, surprising events come into focus that would
disrupt this seemingly stable development. They comprise influencing
factors whose occurrence is possible but not certain, but which would
significantly change the course of the trend if they occurred.
Key questions are: Which unlikely events would push the trend?
Which would destroy it?
Practice Tip Disruptors
The challenge in identifying disruptors is that they are rather unlikely,

often appear surprisingly, and sometimes come from areas that initially
do not necessarily seem to be linked to the trend. As a result, they are
difficult to detect in the context of standard searches.
56 J. Blechschmidt
A methodological approach to this problem is the analysis of the

shaping elements in the trend microcosm. It involves identifying the
elements with the greatest influence on the trend progression and
considering which unlikely events could significantly disrupt these factors.
Procedure
The trend microcosm worksheet from ◉ Fig. 5.2 can be used to structure
the work. In the research process, the collected information is already
assigned to the individual categories in a list. During analysis, these
are then condensed and prioritized into overarching statements. Finally,
the most significant findings are transferred to the trend microcosm
worksheet.
As a result, the worksheet contains only the most important signs and
most influential factors. These are the factors that significantly influ-
ence the trend development. Section 5.2 explains how the trend can
be thought analytically into the future starting from the now focused
overview of the trend microcosm.
What pushes? Disruptors What destroys?

What enables? Today´s signs Who benefits?
What inhibits? Who loses?
What supports? What constrains?
Fig. 5.2 Trend microcosm worksheet

What pushes? Disruptors What destroys?

Sudden availability of low-cost, easy-to-integrate AI solutions AI falls into disrepute
Industry disruption by AI-focused company with huge economic benefits Wrong decisions by AI lead to high economic damage
… Legal prohibition of automated, poorly explainable decisions
…
Drivers Increasing use ofTrend

self-learning algorithms Demand
in enterprise applications
What enables? Today´s signs Who benefits?
Increasing number of available AI modules First productive applications in image recognition, Business processes
Easy integration into common programming languages speech recognition, text recognition, chatbots, - Increasing process efficiency
Ecosystem of service providers is establishing itself customer data analysis ... Company
Further development of important basic technologies Trials of new applications: Decision-making assistance, - Mitigates skilled workers shortage
(cloud, computing power, etc.) real-time analysis of streaming data ... - Improved profitability
… Only 25% of German companies are open to AI (2019). …
Market volume of AI applications > €3 billion (Europe,
What inhibits? 2019).
Who loses?
Poor quality of available training data Employees:
…
Lack of interaction between applications - Way of working is changing
Availability & cost of AI experts - Fear of job loss
Lack of understanding of decisions made by AI Management:
… - Lack of AI competence
…
What supports? What constrains?

AI applications are established in the consumer environment (voice control, General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) sets strict limits on the use of
chatbots, etc.) personal data
Diverse research activities and funding opportunities Ethical concerns about what machines are allowed to decide
… …
Fig. 5.3 Example: trend microcosm of an AI trend
The steps of condensation and prioritization can also be done well in

a workshop setting using the trend microcosm worksheet. An example
of a completed worksheet on an artificial intelligence (AI) trend can be
found in ◉ Fig. 5.3.
5.2 Temporal Development

For a complete picture of the trend development, in addition to the
analysis of the trend content, its course over time must be realistically
assessed. The timing of important events and their dynamics are particu-
larly important for business decisions, for example, when it comes to the
question of whether investments in a project can be recovered at all or at
what point in time a new project should be started.
However, estimating realistic timelines is a major challenge and repeat-
edly leads to grossly inaccurate forecasts. Even in the case of more
dynamic technological developments, such as the history of the smart-
phone shown in ◉ Fig. 5.4, the speed of change is often overestimated.
The first iPhone, and thus the beginning of the app economy, was
launched in 2007 after 3 years of development. Even though the hard-
ware and variety of applications have developed significantly since then,
58
J. Blechschmidt
Annual sales of > 10 Mio. iPhones

Annual sales of > 100 Mio. iPhones
US sales launch Annual sales of > 200 Mio. iPhones
Announcement of iPhone
Start of development New product category: Apple Watch
2004 2007 2008 2012 2015
Fig. 5.4 Technology development timeline of the iPhone

the smartphone itself is already more than 10 years old and will probably
be with us for some more years.
The beginning of artificial intelligence also dates back to 1956! After
the first rapid advances, however, the necessary computer technology was
lacking for many decades, which only in recent years has led to dramatic
advances and a new hype in artificial intelligence.
Practice Tip
Human perception of large time spans is not very reliable and must be
supported by a meaningful approach. Possible aids are
• Extrapolation of the historical trend;

• Comparison with trends of the same category;
• Comparison with the diffusion curve according to Rogers;
• Comparison with the Gartner Hype Cycle;
• Comparison with known timelines of similar changes.
Of course, there are always individual factors that influence the course
of a trend. However, these starting points provide a solid initial estimate
that can subsequently be adjusted based on reasonable arguments.
To understand the development of a trend over time, the course of

time is first divided into individual stages and the trend is successively
projected from the present into the following stages. For this purpose,
the time horizons already introduced—the near, medium, distant, and
far distant future—can be used as a grid. However, it is also possible
to proceed in other temporal intervals, with their lengths based on the
dynamics of the trend under consideration. The number of iterations
depends on how far into the future one wants to look as well as on the
length of the time intervals.
The starting point of the analysis is the completed trend microcosm
with the current characteristics of the trend. From this basis, the near
future is now inferred. First, the category trend is considered, and the
state of the trend is described for the next time interval under the influ-
ence of the shaping elements. In the case of older trends, it is sometimes
worthwhile to look at the past to classify the trend in the scheme of the
60 J. Blechschmidt
diffusion model or the hype cycle to gain a feeling for the state of the
trend and its rate of change.
Next, the drivers, demand, and framework conditions are adjusted.
Lastly, the disruptors are again identified. The picture of the future thus
developed is assigned to an estimated year. The trend microcosm in the
new time interval is thus completed and the next iteration can start.
In this way, the trend is developed further into the future (see ◉
Fig. 5.5), with each newly generated future image of the trend being
fully described in the structure of the trend microcosm and assigned to
an estimated year.
Many factors will remain largely unchanged from interval to interval,
with framework conditions remaining relatively stable. However, the
further a trend develops into the future, the more likely it is that influ-
encing factors will become relevant which do not affect the trend in the
present. As already outlined in ◉ Table 4.1, factors are successively added
Alternative future
Disruptors
Present
Disruptors
Disruptors
Drivers Trend Bedarf
Disruptors
Drivers Trend Bedarf
Drivers Trend Demand etc.
Near future
Medium future
Fig. 5.5 Iterative procedure of trend analysis

in all categories that are not included in the original trend microcosm.
Other factors become weaker or even insignificant and drop out.
Practice Tip
In practice, the (distant) future is often inferred directly from the current
state of the trend, which leads to quick but inaccurate, possibly even
wrong results in the case of larger time jumps. This approach may be
sufficient for simple questions. However, important decisions absolutely
require a systematic approach with solid, well justifiable assessments as
the result.
During implementation, it quickly becomes clear that there can

be different development paths. This reflects the reality of the yet
undetermined future. The alternative development paths discovered are
important findings of the trend analysis. They reveal imponderables that
must be countered through entrepreneurial actions. Understanding the
factors behind the imponderables enables early and appropriate, possibly
proactive, action.
In addition to the most probable development path, the alterna-
tive paths with high probabilities and those with a major influence
on business should be considered further and, if necessary, developed
into the future in a separate line of trend microcosms. Thus, the
result will provide alternative futures in addition to the probable trend
development.
◉ Fig. 5.6 roughly assigns typical business tasks of trend analysis to
the various time horizons and illustrates how far a trend must be devel-
oped into the future in each case to gain useful insights. Many questions
do not require a far-reaching view into the future and accordingly suffice
with only a few iterations of the trend microcosm.
The systematic approach based on the trend microcosm does not
consider a trend alone but includes its interactions with the environment
in its temporal extrapolation. The understanding of both the supporting
and the inhibiting mechanisms leads to a better temporal assessment of
the trend development. Moreover, the emerging pictures of the future
can be qualitatively argued. The result gains acceptance!
62 J. Blechschmidt
Risk management
Stimulating impulses
Investment decisions
Strategic innovation
Product innovation
Strategic planning Strategic corporate alignment (vision)
Near future Medium future Distant future Far distant future
Today 3 years 6 years 10 years
Fig. 5.6 Assignment of time horizons to business tasks
Scenario Technique
The scenario technique is a frequently used method of strategic plan-

ning in which several different future scenarios are developed for a
specific issue. Each scenario must be plausible and realistic. Its proba-
bility of occurrence is initially irrelevant. A probability is assigned to each
scenario at a later stage. By showing different possible futures, the aspect
of uncertainty is highlighted.
The detailed design of the individual future scenarios also confronts
decision-makers with unattractive or surprising but possible developments
that are otherwise often hastily ignored. The goal is to draft a strategy
that is attractive in the most likely scenario and is at least acceptable in
the other futures.
In contrast to trend analysis, scenarios describe comprehensive pictures
of the future and are thus not limited to a single trend. Findings
from trend analyses often serve as the basis for developing the various
scenarios.
5.3 Interpretation
The analysis of the researched trend information results in a picture
of the future as shaped by the trend under consideration. It describes
the changes to which the respective company is exposed and applies
equally to other companies. To make use of the gained understanding,
the specific effects on the company’s own business are now determined.
Here, too, the trend microcosm serves as a basis.
Category Trend
The information collected in the trend category describes the state of

the trend either in the present or at a defined point later in time. In
this way, they indicate changes in the corporate environment to which
the company must respond to benefit from them or at least not to be
adversely affected. A comparison with the current setup and the ongoing
and planned activities of the company provides indications of necessary
or advantageous activities to be optimally positioned in the future.
The characteristics of the trend provide a wide range of starting points
for almost all areas of trend analysis applications, from strategic corporate
alignment, innovation activities, and investment decisions to impulses
for a wide range of corporate units. Only risk management relies on other
categories of the trend microcosm in its work.
Category Drivers
Drivers are the essential elements that lead to the further development of
the trend and thus change the future. Many of these factors are beyond
the company’s control. Continuous monitoring of these elements makes
it possible to check whether the trend is developing as predicted. Other
factors can be influenced by the company through deliberate activities.
By this, the trend development can be accelerated or delayed, depending
on whether the development is beneficial or detrimental. However, the
individual influence of a company on a trend is typically small.
Understanding the elements contained in the drivers category is
particularly important for longer term decisions, such as strategic corpo-
rate alignment, strategic planning, and investment decisions. In addition,
they provide clues for risk management.
Category Demand
The demand contains the groups of people and areas that benefit from
the trend development. Does your company benefit from the trend or is
it rather on the losing side? Or are there at least some units within the
64 J. Blechschmidt
company that can benefit? What needs to be done to take advantage of

the opportunities and minimize the risks?
Again, the longer term strategic decisions benefit from understanding
the category need. For risk management, the focus lies on the groups
of people who have the most to lose. They will want to stop the trend
development, potentially changing the expected future and thus change
the basis for important business decisions.
Category Framework Conditions
For most decisions, the framework conditions are unchangeable vari-

ables that must be known and complied with. Only in the case of very
long-term decisions, such as the strategic direction of the company or
major investment decisions, do changes have to be considered. Some
framework conditions can be actively shaped, for example, through
participation in industry associations or political organizations. Changes
to the framework conditions require a long lead time and must therefore
be started early.
Category Disruptors
The surprising influencing factors collected under the disruptors are

important pillars of risk management and long-term strategic decisions.
They enable the estimation of the impact should the future develop
significantly differently than assumed. Would the complete company be
thrown into turmoil, or would the impact be manageable? How flexible
is the company to react appropriately in the event of an occurrence?
In addition to establishing an early warning system, the analysis of
disruptors can also influence upcoming decisions. In the case of long-
term contracts, for example, suitable exit clauses can be added. Also,
strategic alternatives can be kept open to enable the change of course
at short notice if necessary.
Recommendations for Action
The comparison of the categories of the trend microcosm with the

specific company situation leads to a variety of starting points for
possible activities, which then result in concrete recommendations for
action. Where can the company act proactively to take advantage of the
emerging opportunities and avoid risks? How must it be positioned to be
able to react optimally in the event of developments beyond its control?
The resulting recommendations then form the basis for business deci-
sions and thus bring about change in the company as a result of trend
analysis.
• Fill the trend microcosm with the trend information from your initial
research.
• Do all categories contain multiple entries for both positive and nega-
tive aspects? If not, selectively research more information until you
have a good picture of the trend in its current state.
• Extrapolate the trend into the near future, considering the mechanisms
of interaction between each category.
• Repeat the process for the medium and distant futures. Are there other
conceivable development paths besides the probable one?
6
Excursus: Thinking Traps in Trend Analysis
• How the functioning of the human brain influences our analyses.

• Which thinking traps arise as a result.
• And what this means for trend analysis.
As rationally thinking people, we are convinced of our analytical

abilities. Unfortunately, the future cannot be derived exactly. Many
assessments and evaluations must be made and incomplete information
has to be supplemented by assumptions. In doing so, we often fall back
into coined thought patterns, which often lead to wrong conclusions.
Some of the thinking traps frequently encountered in practice are
listed below. Many of them have their cause in the functioning of the
human brain, as it has been described, for example, by Daniel Kahneman
[1] and whose book served as an inspiration for this excursus. Uncon-
scious thought patterns lead to results that we are fully convinced are
correct, but which do not stand up to closer scrutiny.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_6
68 J. Blechschmidt
Moreover, these thought patterns make our work easier because they
deliver fast results. Critical questioning means additional effort—a major
reason why we willingly fall for them. For good results, however, only
the “hard way” remains, which begins with knowing and understanding
possible pitfalls.
Available Information
Former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld once said:
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also
know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some
things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there
are things we do not know we don’t know [2].
According to this, there are three types of knowledge:
• Things we know.
• Things we know we don’t know.
• Things we don’t know that we don’t know.
So, we are aware that we never have all knowledge at our disposal. We
do not even know what knowledge could still be relevant. Nevertheless,
we like to assume at the moment of analysis that we have all the impor-
tant information available. It is enough for us if these seem coherent
and logical to stop searching for further facts. Aggravatingly, we do not
always remember all the researched facts when we need them, even if
they were present shortly before. Psychologist and Nobel laureate Daniel
Kahneman coined the phrase “What you see is all there is” to describe
this situation [2]. Only the knowledge present at the moment of analysis
flows into the decision-making process.
Experts
We like to base our judgments on expert opinions and often treat their
statements as truth. Yet, experiments show that experts are often no
better than the average person in their predictions in complex situations.
When faced with complex information, people are generally inconsistent

in their judgments, and the same person’s interpretations can vary while
facts stay the same.
To make matters worse, it is unclear who even is an expert on the issue
at hand and what qualifies him as an expert on that issue. Statements
by well-known opinion leaders are considered reliable, sometimes solely
because of a high media presence.
In addition, contradictory expert opinions are often found, not least
because experts are also shaped by their specific background. The indi-
vidual selection of the opinions considered thus influences the trend
analysis. Experts who are aligned with one’s own opinion are uncon-
sciously preferred.
However, experts are often characterized by unconventional ways
of thinking and a broad information background. Their assessments
are thus important sources, but which must be used with appropriate
caution.
Complexity
Reality results from the interactions of many different trends and devel-
opments. It is influenced by the decisions of manifold actors, who some-
times decide rationally, but very often spontaneously and irrationally.
And not infrequently, chance plays a major role.
We cannot capture these complex interactions in their completeness,
let alone analyze them. Therefore, we reduce our questions to essential
partial aspects and subsequently expand them to an overall picture. In
the necessary simplification, important aspects can get lost or the wrong
questions can be asked, which affects the quality of the results.
Apparent Truth
For analysis, we have to decide which information we can trust, and

which should be treated with caution. This is not easy either, because the
intuitive truth assessment depends heavily on the way in which informa-
tion is presented—an art that politics and advertising, for example, have
perfected.
70 J. Blechschmidt
This way, repetition generates credibility; familiar answers appear

truer. Information cited in many sources appears more correct, even if
the sources are not independent of each other or quote each other.
The context of the information, its wording, and comprehensibility
are further factors. A (subjectively) good story is readily believed even
when the facts are thin, especially if it is presented with high emotional
intensity. Even non-events can be exaggerated by the media, for example,
when trivial events are turned into catastrophes by exaggerated reporting.
In general, we like to believe statements and try to avoid persistent
questioning.
Chance
Even if we trend analysts don’t like to hear it, not everything makes
sense, many things are just coincidences. Due to the human desire for
causality and explainability, a meaning is ascribed to many occurrences
in retrospect. What has no explanation is explained.
The stories of the past shape our understanding of the world, even
if they are flawed. We believe that we understand the past and can
recognize the future through it. The illusion of a predictable future is
created.
Statistics
Many events are subject to a statistical distribution. If rain is forecasted

for the next day, there may be places that remain dry after all, and others
with above-average rainfall. If a trend will increase, there will be areas
with large effects and others where the effects will be less or delayed.
Our minds love causal thinking. Thus, when events of interest occur,
we automatically look for possible reasons. We want to understand the
connections and learn from them. If we see strong signs of a develop-
ment, we assign a high significance to them, even though they may only
be statistical outliers. Similarly, we want to explain the absence of signs.
In the sense of statistics, however, extreme examples must always exist.
There is no further information in them, no explanation is needed for
them. But we recognize patterns where there are none.
Since trend research specifically looks for signs and effects of a trend,
there is a danger of generalizing the examples found instead of trying to
determine an average value as a suitable measure of a trend development.
Thus, the strength of a trend and its progress over time are systematically
overstated.
We also like to overestimate the probability of specific but rare events,
which can lead to erroneous conclusions, especially when dealing with
disruptors. In this context, we assign a higher probability of occurrence
to identified opportunities than to risks. We are only too happy to believe
that we are on the positive side of statistics.
Experience Background
Information is automatically matched with the world we know. We inter-

pret it in the context we know and accept, thus narrowing our perspec-
tive. We mentally supplement fundamental properties automatically with
suitable information. We even blank out unsuitable information to keep
our world coherent.
Intuition requires special care. It extrapolates our personal experi-
ence into the future and usually fails in unknown contexts and during
dynamic changes. Unfortunately, the world is different almost every-
where. It already starts in the neighboring town or in another social
milieu, let alone in another industry or in a foreign country. Particu-
larly when it comes to new trends, we should therefore not be too hasty
in relying on experience.
Interpretation
Jumping to conclusions is a classic mistake in trend analysis. At the same

time, we love the confirmation of our own expectations. Our evaluation
becomes more positive when we desire a certain scenario, especially when
we are emotionally involved. And which trend analyst is not emotionally
involved when he has spent many weeks with “his” trend?
During analysis, at some point an initial interpretation emerges and
sticks in our mind. It thus becomes an anchor of our thoughts and is
difficult to get away from it later. Every new interpretation must compete
72 J. Blechschmidt
against “our”, now already established, explanation. Therefore, it has a

harder time than the first one for no reason.
In extrapolating a trend, we then work our way analytically into the
future, step by step. We outline a likely trend based on the informa-
tion we know. In general, concrete, identified options are overestimated,
while unknown and diffuse risks are underestimated. We know from our
own experience that something unforeseen will always happen, even if
we cannot yet say exactly what it will be. Also, no trend development
will run in a straight line.
What does This Mean for Trend Analysis?
In practice, we will always succumb to some of these thinking traps.

Being aware of this danger helps to avoid gross errors. And at the end of
their work, trend analysts also need to reduce the complexity of reality to
a few core messages and describe their results with simple, emotionally
activating images to anchor them in the minds of decision-makers.
The thinking traps that hinder us at the beginning can even be useful
at the end!

• Go through the listed thinking traps one by one: Can you think of
situations in the past where you may have been misguided by them?
• Check the entries in the trend microcosm you have created. How
confident are you in your conclusions? Where might thinking traps
have struck? Mark each entry with high, medium, or low depending
on your confidence in the statement.
• Would you still assume the same evolution of the trend over time? In
which aspects would you be more cautious now?
References
1. Kahneman, D (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. Doubleday Canada.
2. Youtube Donald Rumsfeld Unknown Unknowns!. https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk. Accessed: 12.06.2020.
7
Trend Study: In-Depth Analysis of a Trend
• How a trend study is developed.

• How the trend study document is structured.
• What should be considered to impact the company with the findings of a trend
study.
• Corporate tasks that use trend studies.
7.1 Concept
Trend studies are an established results format when dealing with the
future. They focus on a specific trend, analyze, and describe it. The
trend is first considered comprehensively and afterwards interpreted with
regard to a specific question. Some trend studies are limited to anal-
ysis and description, for example, if they have been prepared by a trend
research institute and are intended to address a broad, inhomogeneous
group of interested parties. In the corporate context, however, only the
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_7
76 J. Blechschmidt
interpretation provides the desired added value and is thus an essential

part of the study.
A trend study is the analysis and description of a trend and its impact on
a selected area, such as a company or its markets, products, or internal
processes.
The typical procedure of a trend study is shown in Fig. 7.1. In practice,

the individual work steps are intermingled, as findings regularly emerge
that require renewed research or an adjustment of the analysis. At the end
of the process, the finished study serves as documentation of the results
and as a basis for further discussions and activities.
Trend research and consulting companies offer ready-made studies on
selected trends, and others can be commissioned. This avoids in-house
effort and ensures an independent analysis from an external perspective.
Trend selection
Research
Near future
in case of ambiguities
Medium future
Far future
in case of ambiguities
Analysis
Near future
Medium future
Far future
Interpretation
Finalization
Fig. 7.1 Typical process of a trend study

However, the specific interpretation of the results and the derivation of

concrete recommendations for action require a good knowledge of the
company and are therefore always carried out with the involvement of
company employees.
A comprehensive trend study, which typically involves 4–6 months of
work, is not worthwhile for every issue. In practice, therefore, lean, and
focused approaches can be found alongside comprehensive studies.
7.2 Implementation
The first step in trend analysis is the selection of a trend. In the simplest
case, the trend team is given the task of evaluating a trend that is consid-
ered relevant for the company. Often, there is an overarching question
that does not initially relate to a specific trend. In this case, it is neces-
sary to check which trends could be relevant for answering the question.
If a trend radar (Chap. 8) for the company is already available, the listed
trends serve as the basis for selection. Otherwise, the known trends of
relevant publications can serve as starting points.
Far more frequently, the trend selection is the responsibility of the
trend team, which is expected to observe all trends relevant to the
company, to analyze them regularly, and to quickly take newly emerging
trends under observation. One task of the trend team is therefore the
continuous search for new trends, for example, in publications by trend
and consulting companies. Many service providers regularly bring out
trend publications that provide an overview of new trends and devel-
opments and can form a basis for trend selection. While working with
trends, the trend team also keeps noticing new developments, which
can be collected and evaluated at regular intervals to determine whether
further analysis would be important for the company.
Due to limited resources, not all trends can be worked on with the
same intensity. Focus must be set. To find the important trends, the
selection should be based on appropriate selection criteria. One criterion
is usually the assumed relevance for one’s own company at the current
time. However, topics can also be picked up that are newly appearing in
public reporting, but whose significance for the company is still unclear.
78 J. Blechschmidt
Here, a trend study can provide the desired clarity. Depending on the
company’s current objectives, the focus can also lie on a specific trend
category, such as technology trends. The selection criteria should reflect
these considerations.
Before starting the actual trend analysis, the scope of consideration
must be defined. What exactly does the trend encompass? How is it
differentiated from other developments? Since trends interact intensively
with their environment and other trends, the transitions are often fluid.
A clear definition and delimitation of the trend set the focus for the
research. If the trend is taken from a known source, the given definition
can be adopted. As already described, however, there are no univer-
sally valid trend definitions, so that definition and delimitation can vary
depending on the source. A suitable definition should then be selected
for one’s own work and adjusted if necessary.
The understanding of a trend will increase as the study progresses.
Thus, findings may emerge that make it appropriate to adjust the defini-
tion. Thus, the trend definition should initially be viewed as a working
version. Toward the end of the study, the trend will be finally defined
and delimited.
Depending on the subsequent use of the results, the time horizon of
the trend study must be defined. Section 3.2 provides guidance on this.
The limitation to short time spans can significantly reduce the amount
of work of the trend study.
The result of trend selection is a clearly defined trend with a
delimited scope and time horizon.
Now the research and analysis of the trend follow, as described in
Chaps. 4 and 5. The trend definition and the time span to be consid-
ered set the frame for the search field. The focus of the interpretation is
given by the trend study objective.
7.3 Documentation
The results of research, analysis, and interpretation are finally docu-
mented clearly and conclusively. Form and content are determined by
the group of people for whom the study is intended as well as from
the objective of the communication. The requirements for internal and

external communication are different, which affects not only the content
but also the form of the document.
If the trend study is prepared exclusively for the company’s internal
clients, it often consists only of a series of presentation slides for internal
presentation and discussion. In that case, it is particularly important to
sharpen the findings to the internal concerns of the company and to
focus on the statements that are relevant to the company. Information
that is not directly relevant is documented but is not included in the
final presentation.
If the trend study is aimed at external addressees, general findings that
are not specific to the company are also of interest. A trend report is
often distributed to a wide circle of interested parties as part of corporate
marketing and made available for access on the company’s website, for
example. Care must be taken to ensure that the report does not contain
any confidential or sensitive company information. A professional layout
and editorial preparation become increasingly important.
Exemplary Structure of a Trend Report
• Foreword,
• Management summary,
• Explanation of the main findings,
• Description of trend development,
• Presentation of alternative developments and possible disruptions,
• Deep dives of particularly interesting aspects,
• Selected impulses (best practices, micro-trends, etc.),
• Description of the methodology,
• Contact information, and
• References
Often, a comprehensive basic document is prepared that comprises

the entirety of findings and serves as general documentation. Based on
this, addressee-specific excerpts encompassing the relevant findings and
recommendations are created and suitably prepared. In this way, the
specific requirements of internal as well as external interested parties can
be served individually.
80 J. Blechschmidt
For a meaningful trend study, various aspects must be considered,

irrespective of the group of addressees:
Appealing Title
The title is the first thing that is perceived from a trend study. On
the one hand, it provides information about the trend under consid-
eration. On the other hand, it should encourage people to read the
study. For example, a study on autonomous driving may simply be called
“Autonomous Driving”. This should make the focus of the study clear
to most people. Autonomous driving, however, says nothing about the
actual trend, which describes a change. A title such as “The emergence
of autonomous vehicles in private transport” puts the trend develop-
ment in the focus and delimits the content more precisely. This sober
title could be emotionalized by highlighting a provocative core thesis:
“The disruption of the automotive industry by autonomous individual
transport”.
Comprehensibility
The final trend study should be coherent and easy to understand for the
target group. After weeks of working on a topic, the trend team has a
lot of information and ideas in their heads that make it seem self-evident
what was unknown when the analysis started. The reader lacks this back-
ground knowledge. He may be dealing with the trend for the first time.
When preparing the trend study, therefore, attention must be paid to a
clear presentation and argumentation of the findings.
Management Summary
The management summary summarizes the key messages of the trend

study. It enables decision-makers to quickly absorb the information rele-
vant to them and to consider it in their work without having to read
the entire study. It should therefore contain all the important state-
ments and be comprehensible even without reference to other parts of
the study. Depending on the target audience, the management summary
may contain different messages. What is of interest to the public will
usually differ from the individual company’s perspective.
Precise Formulations of the Key Messages
The core messages are the essence of a trend study and are thus part of the
management summary, where they are often additionally highlighted.
They comprise the derived recommendations or build the starting point
for them. They serve as the basis for business decisions and thus find
entry into company activities. To be able to guide action, they are boiled
down to precisely formulated core statements.
Practice Tip
An important factor in core messages is the way they are formulated.

Easily acceptable statements trigger little pressure on the reader to take
actions; they are taken note of but are often not considered further.
A polarizing or even provocative wording, on the other hand, leads to
intensive engagement with the statement. This increases the chance of
real change.
Connection to Business
A trend study only delivers value if it provides the reader with insights
that are relevant to him. The purpose of trend analysis is to identify
developments outside the immediate corporate environment that will
become relevant for the company in the future. These are usually not
yet in the view of the decision-makers, and their future influence on
the company is not yet known. For a trend study, it is crucial to show
the connection to today’s business in a very concrete way and point out
82 J. Blechschmidt
its significance. A trend study that is too abstract will bring about little
change.
Clear Structure
Only few people read extensive trend studies in full. Many decision-
makers have little time for dealing with the long-term future. A clear
structure helps the reader to quickly find the parts relevant to him and
to quickly absorb the important information. A uniform structure for all
trend studies is helpful for orientation.

Since the trend study is intended to provide a basis for business decisions,
the interpretation must always relate to the specific issue. Depending
on the objective, different aspects are brought into focus, others lose
importance.
The strategic orientation of a company requires a broad view of the

future. A single trend study is not sufficient. Overviews of several trends,
such as a trend radar, are better suited for this purpose. Although the
trend radar provides a good overview of future developments, it is less
detailed in terms of content. Significant trends should be analyzed in
detail by more in-depth trend studies to supplement the trend radar.
Strategic Planning
For the annual strategy process, studies on trends with a direct influence
on the company’s core business areas are of particular interest. Due to
the time focus of typically 3–5 years, the emphasis is on short-term trend
developments with the aim of deriving concrete recommendations that

can already be implemented in the present.
Product Innovation and Strategic Innovation
Trend studies provide a variety of impulses for innovation activities,

both for product developments and for strategic innovations. Iden-
tified developments, best practices of start-ups and other companies,
new technologies, and much more can serve as a source of inspiration
within the framework of usual innovation methods. For this purpose, the
most interesting and inspiring impulses in the corporate context must
be selected and prepared for application within the framework of an
innovation methodology.
Trend studies form the basis for the assumptions of an investment calcu-
lation, for example, on the state of markets, technologies, or price and
cost developments. The type of investment thus determines the trends to
be considered.
During a trend study, many insights arise that are not directly relevant to
the original objective. However, especially in large and diversified compa-
nies, there are often units for which these findings can be of interest.
As part of the interpretation, such information can also be put into the
appropriate context and must be actively communicated to the respective
business unit.
Risk Management
In particular, trend studies with a wider view into the future often iden-
tify fundamental threats to a company, its products, and markets, which
84 J. Blechschmidt
are important for a company’s risk management. In practice, however,

risk management is rarely the initiator of a trend study, but merely
benefits from its findings.
• Draft the concept of your first trend study. First, focus on what you
consider to be the key elements.
• Fill the concept with the results of your first trend analysis by inserting
the essential information and statements in the respective sections as
key phrases. Pay attention to the notes in this chapter.
• Formulate the key messages of the trend study. How confident are
you in the reliability of these findings? If necessary, research additional
supporting information.
• What supplementary elements of the trend study can clarify and
support the core messages to convince the reader?
8
Trend Radar: Overview of Relevant Trends
• Information that is presented in a trend radar.

• Evaluation criteria used in the trend radar.
• How a trend radar document is structured.
• For which business questions a trend radar is used.
8.1 Concept
In addition to the trend study, the trend radar is the second, widely
used result format of trend analysis. While the trend study focuses on
a specific trend, the trend radar provides an overview of the multitude
of different trends. The individual situation and the current issues of
a company are reflected in the selection of the trends, for example, by
focusing on a certain industry or on specific technology fields. In this
way, the trend radar presents all trends relevant to a company according

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_8
86 J. Blechschmidt
to selected criteria and brings important findings to the attention of

decision-makers.
The trend radar is the high-level view of all trends considered relevant
for a specific area, such as a company or its markets, products, or internal
processes.
The Classic Trend Radar
By far, the most common representation of a trend radar is the abstracted

form of a radar screen (Fig. 8.1). Here, the trends arrange themselves
around the center of a circle. The distance from the center is a measure
of the importance of a trend. The greater the significance, the closer the
trends are located to the center. Often, only a circle section such as a
semicircle is used for visualization.
To structure the various trends, the trend radar is often divided into
several circle segments, each containing trends of a certain category.
Cat
yB ego
egor ry C
Cat
Cat
ry A
ego
ego
ry D
Cat
Trend relevance
Fig. 8.1 Classic trend radar

Additional information can be visualized by different colors of the trend

points or varying diameters. Occasionally, the angle to the vertical also
has a meaning.
In the radar visualization, the essential information about the trends
shown is the distance from the center point. As on a real radar, it is
intuitively clear to the viewer that the closer to the center, the greater
the significance of the trends. Thus, the evaluation of the trend signif-
icance is essential. Usually, information on the expected influence of a
trend on the company (trend relevance) and its stage of development
over time (trend maturity) are combined for this purpose. Depending
on the objective of the trend radar, however, individual criteria can also
be selected.
Rough recommendations are assigned to the different distance ranges.
A typical choice is a division into observe, evaluate, test, and apply (in
the order from outside to inside). The further handling of a trend thus
results from the assessment of its significance.
• Observe: The trend must be monitored further.

• Evaluate: The trend should be evaluated in detail regarding its impact
on the company.
• Test: The possibilities of the trend need to be tested out.
• Apply: The possibilities of the trend must be transferred into applica-
tion.
The visualization in the form of a radar is supported by a variety

of software products. Commercially available software programs also
offer interactive elements such as the selective fade-in of additional
information or the visualization of dependencies and changes in trend
positions.
Portfolio Representation
The representation of the trend radar in the form of a radar screen is

the most popular form of visualization and the reason for its naming.
Occasionally, however, other types are also used.
88 J. Blechschmidt
One alternative is the two-dimensional portfolio representation

(Fig. 8.2), which is frequently used in portfolio management. In
portfolio management, this representation supports the allocation of
resources to a set of projects. Similarly, in trend management, existing
resources must be distributed among projects for a variety of trends. The
portfolio representation is thus particularly suitable for deriving strategic
decisions in the sense of prioritizing activities. Trend management as
well frequently involves the allocation of resources to a variety of trend
activities.
The two-dimensional representation enables the simultaneous visual-
ization of two independent parameters. As in the radar display, trend
relevance and trend maturity are often used, but now as separate criteria.
This increases the information depth of the visualization. It is thus easier
to distinguish whether a trend is relevant but still immature, or mature
but not relevant.
watch understand consider implement
proactiv
high
Trend relevance
equal level
medium
opportunistic
low
emerging volatile maturing established

Trend maturity
Fig. 8.2 Portfolio representation of a trend radar

Concrete recommendations can also be derived from the portfolio

representation, which can be more detailed than in the radar image
due to the two-dimensionality. For this purpose, each axis is divided
into segments that allow a meaningful classification of the trends. In
the example shown, the trend maturity axis is divided into emerging,
volatile, maturing, and established . Each category can now be assigned a
recommendation:
• Emerging: The trend is newly formed and its further course is still
largely unclear. It should be observed further.
• Volatile: The trend has been confirmed and is stabilizing. It is time to
understand it in more detail and to identify initial opportunities.
• Maturing: The trend has solidified. Its impact should be systematically
considered in decisions.
• Established : The trend is effective across the board. The company must
consistently exploit its opportunities and minimize the risks.
The trend relevance axis is categorized as low, medium, and high.

Recommendations could be.
• Low: The chances of the trend are estimated to be low. An oppor-

tunistic approach is recommended.
• Medium: The opportunities of the trend are attractive. They should
be evaluated on an equal footing with other comparable alternatives,
such as other projects or investment opportunities.
• High: The opportunities of the trend are very large and can change the
company in the long term. Proactive investments should be made in
the trend and competencies should be built up.
Combining both axes, the portfolio representation segments into

twelve fields, each with different recommended actions that serve as
starting points for decision-making.
90 J. Blechschmidt
Evaluation Criteria
As mentioned above, trend maturity and trend relevance are commonly

used criteria for ranking trends on the trend radar. Trend maturity eval-
uates the current state of the trend independent of the company. Trend
relevance is a measure of the importance of the trend to the company
in question. For application, both terms must be defined according
to criteria that are as objective as possible and can be evaluated in
the context of trend analysis. Otherwise, there is a risk that subjective
evaluations lead to wrong trend assessments.
Trend maturity can result from the position of the trend in the Gartner
Hype Cycle or the diffusion model. Sometimes, the classification can be
taken from the literature. In most cases, however, an own assessment
is required, which necessitates a detailed analysis. In this case, the eval-
uation parameters must be tied to observable variables, which can be
evaluated using a point system, for example, according to the following
scheme:
• 0 points: The trend is only discussed.

• 1 point: First signals or developments of the trend are present.
• 2 points: First signs of the trend are visible in everyday life.
• 3 points: The trend is visible in a wide variety of places.
• 4 points: The trend is established and taken for granted.
The example illustrates the basic approach to the evaluation of qualita-

tive parameters and is usually more detailed in practice. For example, the
maturity of technology trends can be determined by parameters such as
the number of research projects, existence of resulting products, degree
of standardization, number of companies in the field, and much more.
The individual parameters are then evaluated separately and the points
are added up, sometimes using weighting factors.
Trend relevance relates to the company in question and can easily be
determined based on economic indicators, such as the revenue or effi-
ciency potential created by the trend. Negative effects of a trend are then
evaluated accordingly by the size of the threatened revenue or profit.
Here, the key figures can either be estimated qualitatively or calcu-

lated quantitatively via concrete future use cases. Other possible reference
parameters can be derived from the strategic goals of the company, such
as the contribution of the trend to a planned company diversification
or the achievement of environmental policy goals. If several parameters
flow into the evaluation, they can again be combined into an overall
evaluation using a point system.
It is advisable to precisely formulate the evaluation methodology and
to adhere to it strictly. It should lead to the same assessment regardless of
the person and the time of the assessment, given the same information.
In addition, the accuracy of the results must enable a clear and repro-
ducible positioning on the trend radar. The more precisely the assessment
criteria are formulated, the better this will succeed.
The trends shown on the trend radar are already preselected according
to relevance for the company. Trends identified as unimportant do not
even appear. Trends that have previously been analyzed in a trend study
can easily be placed on the radar because their relevance for the company
is well understood. Typically, an initial assessment based on the defined
criteria is sufficient for a trend whether to appear on the radar or not.
8.2 Implementation
The first step in creating a trend radar is to clarify the objective. Often,
there is a desire in a company to have a view of future developments;
management wants to be informed about new opportunities and risks
at an early stage. With such a general objective, the trend team is
responsible for designing the trend radar.
Nevertheless, it is advisable to specify the requirements in more
concrete terms. Ultimately, the trend radar should be a basis for business
decisions. Therefore, it must provide the necessary information basis,
use meaningful evaluation criteria, and create a comprehensible visualiza-
tion. The more precisely the objective is known, the more purposefully
the trend radar can be developed. The objective determines both the
information presented in the trend radar as well as the trend evaluation
criteria.
92 J. Blechschmidt
Creation of a Trend Radar
• Determination of the objective;

• Development of the methodology;
• Selection of the graphical representation;
• Coordination with future users;
• Elaboration of the trend radar content;
• Design of the trend radar document.
The trend selection is derived from the objective of the trend radar.
Are generally all trends of interest or can they be confined to a specific
industry (e.g., logistics trends) or a trend category (e.g., social trends)?
Are mega-, macro-, or micro-trends relevant or a mix of them? A sensible
focus reduces the workload but must not compromise the objective of
the trend radar.
If the subsequent use of the trend radar is known, the evaluation
criteria can be derived from it so that they encompass the relevant infor-
mation for upcoming decisions. The criteria are formulated as tangible
and comprehensibly as possible and provided with an evaluation scheme.
Supplementary information on how to handle the evaluation scheme is
helpful. Precise specifications ensure that the same information leads to
the same evaluation, regardless of the evaluator.
Evaluation criteria of the DB Digital.Trend.Radar of DB Systel [1]
DB Systel is Deutsche Bahn’s (German´s national railroad company) digital

partner and, as an internal service provider, is driving forward the digiti-
zation of Deutsche Bahn. The DB Digital.Trend.Radar serves as the basis
for the strategic development of DB Systel’s product portfolio. The task is:
Which digital products, services, and competencies must DB Systel provide
in order to be an innovative partner of Deutsche Bahn, both today and
in the future?
The measure of trend relevance is the DB Business Value. It answers the
question: How important is it for Deutsche Bahn to address the trend? For
this purpose, opportunities, and risks of future application scenarios for
Deutsche Bahn are evaluated on a ten-year horizon. The assessed criteria
are.
• Revenue potential,
• Efficiency potential,
• Threat of disruption, and
• Regulatory aspects.
The measure of the state of the trend is maturity. It answers the question:
How easy is it today to exploit the opportunities resulting from the trend?
Maturity is subdivided into the evaluation criteria:
• Market strategy,
• Market availability,
• Interoperability,
• Ecosystem, and
• Status of the peer group.
The evaluation scheme is then tested for its applicability on a first

trend. This often reveals practical difficulties, for example, if the typical
quality of available information is not sufficient for an evaluation or if
an evaluation criterion is understood differently by different evaluators.
The best scheme is of no use if it fails in practice. Then it must be revised
and retested for applicability.
Based on the content requirements, the visualization type of the trend
radar—radar chart or portfolio presentation—and its structure are deter-
mined. What information should be shown about the individual trends
and how should it be depicted? What should the design and color scheme
be? What explanatory information should be included in the legend?
If trend radar software (such as Itonics [2] and TrendOne [3]) is used
for the presentation, many parameters are already predefined. When
selecting the software, care must be taken to ensure that existing limi-
tations do not impair the intended benefit. In the design, trend radars
from other companies can be used as orientation and modified to suit
one’s own purpose.
In the next step, the trend radar is filled with initial trends on an
exemplary basis, whereby neither completeness nor depth of detail is
important. The overall picture that emerges is used to check the subse-
quent procedure for discussing and deriving recommendations. Is the
overall appearance of the trend radar positive and professional? Is the
94 J. Blechschmidt
essential information easy to perceive? Does it succeed in deriving mean-

ingful recommendations? Then it is time to discuss the trend radar and
the planned procedure with the target group.
The later users of the trend radar now see the whole picture for the
first time and can familiarize themselves with the procedure. These initial
discussions generate acceptance and align expectations with the real-
istic possibilities of a trend analysis. No decisions must be made yet.
However, it must be ensured that the trend radar provides a good basis
for later decisions. Requirements that have not yet been considered in
the concept will emerge. At this stage, change requests can still be consid-
ered without any problems. Once the trend radar has been filled with all
trends, further changes will cause a lot of additional work.
The time required for the development of the methodology up to the
matching with the later users can take 2–3 months. If software is used
for visualization, the time required for selection and procurement must
be added. Only then are all requirements met. The process of filling the
trend radar with content can begin.
In order to deliver an initial result within a reasonable period of
time, one usually starts with a reduced version of the trend radar that
is limited to selected trends that are considered to be particularly impor-
tant. Not every trend assessment has to be based on a comprehensive
trend study for this purpose. A conscientiously executed initial assess-
ment is sufficient at first. The scope and detail of the trend radar can
then be successively expanded in subsequent cycles. In order not to create
a false impression, the compromises in the preparation of the first trend
radar should be agreed with the clients or clearly communicated when
the result is presented.
Once the completion of the first trend radar is foreseeable, the subse-
quent usage must be coordinated. How can the original objective be
achieved? To whom must the trend radar be presented for this purpose
and in what format? How are recommendations derived and what must
be prepared so that these can be implemented?
Usually, the trend radar is presented to the clients in the form of
a presentation and the results are then discussed. Sometimes, there is
an information session with an overview of the overall picture and a
high-level discussion, followed by one or more workshops or follow-up
meetings to derive specific actions. Usually, the document is made widely

available within the company and actively communicated. A possible use
of the trend radar in external communication is typically a task of the
marketing department.
8.3 Documentation
A trend radar is usually understood as the graphical representation of
trends in a radar chart or an alternative visualization. However, this repre-
sentation alone is not sufficiently comprehensible and must therefore be
enriched with further information and explanations.
Thus, at least a definition or short description of each trend must
be available so that findings can be derived at all. In most cases, each
trend is defined, described, and provided with further information in
the form of a more or less detailed trend portrait. It may contain facts
and figures about the trend, application examples, the listing of associ-
ated companies, start-ups, and much more. These details enable readers
to understand the trend and illustrate key developments.
In addition, the main arguments that led to the assessment of the trend
are listed. For example, high revenue potential may be the key driver of
a positive evaluation, or low technical reliability the reason for a negative
evaluation. Often, several factors together are decisive for the assessment
and are then all listed.
The influence of a trend on the company, as well as emerging opportu-
nities and risks, is described. Information on relevant activities within the
company or existing product offerings related to the trend is particularly
useful for the subsequent derivation of recommendations.
Sample Outline of a Trend Radar Document
• Foreword,
• Description of the main findings,
• Graphical representation of the trend radar,
• Trend portraits of all trends,
96 J. Blechschmidt
• Description of the methodology,

• Contact information, and
• References.
As with the trend study, a typical trend radar document also contains
other elements such as:
• a summary of the main findings to help the reader interpret and

quickly absorb the important information.
• the explanation of the methodology and research procedure to convey
the soundness of the approach to the reader.
• a general section with authors and contact information, references,
publisher’s details, etc.
If the trend radar is also communicated outside the company, this

basic structure is usually enriched with further contributions such as a
foreword, expert interviews, images, quotes, and project examples as well
as the company’s product range with respect to the individual trends. In
addition, a professional layout is important.
Many tips and practical advice for finalizing a trend study (Sect. 7.3)
apply equally to a trend radar document and are not repeated here.

In contrast to trend studies, which focus on a specific development,
the trend radar generates an overall picture of the changes expected in
the future. It thus provides a good basis for the overall orientation of a
company.
The trend radar provides orientation for the development of mission and
vision and supports long-term strategic corporate alignment by creating
an overview of the important changes in the corporate environment. It
is a good starting point for discussing the direction in which a company

should develop in the long term.
Strategic Planning
A frequent field of application of the trend radar is the annual strategy

process. It starts with an overall assessment of the current state of the
company and the main developments in the environment. At this point,
the trend radar and other findings from trend analysis serve as a starting
point for discussions. Comparing the positions of the trends on the radar
with the activities in the company reveals possible deficits. Compar-
ison with the previous version of the radar draws attention to rapidly
developing trends.
Product Innovation and Strategic Innovation
Due to its high abstractness, the trend radar provides little input for
innovation activities. Trend studies are much more productive here.
However, the trend radar can be used to set innovation priorities and
distinguish important from less important innovation fields.
In the context of investment decisions, the trend radar provides an over-

arching view of future developments and enables an assessment to which
extent investment shall flow into a promising field. However, the trend
radar is too vague to allow any further statements to be made.
The overview of the various trends supports a holistic view of a wide

variety of topics, which can certainly broaden the horizon of thought.
However, a variety of concrete impulses, such as those provided by a
trend study, cannot be expected from the trend radar.
98 J. Blechschmidt
Risk Management
The systematic discussion of the trend radar leads to high transparency of

trend-related fundamental risks and enables the determination of appro-
priate proactive or reactive measures. While trend studies identify the
risks of individual trends, the trend radar offers a broad view of all
trend-related risks.

• Consider what characteristics you would use to determine the trend
maturity and trend relevance of a selected trend.
• Draw up a scale from 0 (immature)–4 (mature) and describe the char-
acteristics that must be achieved at each level. Assign a corresponding
rating to the trend.
• Sketch different forms of representation of the trend radar and insert
the evaluated trend. Which representation suits your company and
seems to be a good basis for further discussions?
References
1. Blechschmidt J. et al (2019). Digital.Trend.Radar 2020. DB Systel GmbH
2. Itonics. Trendradar - Software für Trendmanagement. https://www.itonics-inn
ovation.de/trendradar. Accessed: 30.08.2020
3. TrendOne. Trendradar - Die Basis für ein systematisches Trendmanagement.
https://www.trendone.com/beratung/trendradar. Accessed: 30.08.2020
9
Trend Management as a Corporate
Function
• Activities included in trend management.

• How trend management is implemented in a company.
• How the trend team brings about decisions.
• What the trend team must observe to successfully change a company.
9.1 Tasks
Trend studies and trend radar are the two core products of trend manage-
ment. In addition to these, there are often other result formats that
display the findings of trend analysis in a different form and to a different
extent, each for a specific application purpose. One example is the
trend impulse, which concisely explains a specific trend aspect. Another
example is the trend pitch, which describes a trend compactly and memo-
rably, for example, as a workshop impulse. All these formats derive from
the respective purpose and differ from company to company. Based on
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_9
100 J. Blechschmidt
the conducted trend research, they are easy to create with the methods
described so far.
Practice Tip
The development of new formats is easily done along the following lines:
• Objective: What should be achieved with the format?

• Information: What information is required for this purpose?
• Preparation: How must this information be prepared so that it is usable
for this purpose?
• Form: Which format is suitable for the intended use?
With these products, the trend knowledge is documented in a compre-

hensible way and prepared for use. Now it must be ensured that the
findings are seriously considered in the company. To do this, they must
be deliberately linked to the (strategic) corporate processes. This is also a
task of trend management.
Trend management comprises the research, analysis, and company-specific

interpretation of trend information, combined with the deliberate initia-
tion of changes.
The trend team are the people behind trend management, which can
consist of one or more people depending on the company and work
either continuously or only temporarily on this task. It is responsible for
the overall process of trend analysis and usually carries out a large part
itself. Trend management comprises five core tasks.
Key Tasks of Trend Management
• Establish a trend methodology,

• Conduct trend analysis and interpretation,
• Generate impact,
• Conduct proactive activities, and
• Support with trend knowledge.
Establish a Trend Methodology
The fundamental element of trend analysis is a reasoned methodical

concept for trend evaluation, from research up to the incorporation of
the results into the company’s decision-making processes. This includes:
• the design of trend radar, trend study, and other result formats;
• the working methods for trend analysis;
• operational tools such as software programs and data repositories;
• access to information sources;
• participation in networks.
When setting up trend management, one of the first tasks is to work

out the methodology. This process is never really finished in practice, as
many aspects must adapt to changes in the company and its processes.
Trend Analysis and Interpretation
Once the methodological foundations have been laid, the content-related

work begins with information gathering, analysis, and the derivation of
company-relevant findings. This includes:
• the targeted procurement of information;

• the evaluation and analysis of the information;
• interpretation to the specific needs of the company;
• precise formulation of company-relevant findings;
• the derivation of recommendations.
In the early phase of trend management, the main task is to obtain

relevant information. Since the collection and evaluation of information
requires a great deal of time, the focus later shifts to the efficiency of the
work. For example, operational aspects such as the optimization of the
information database, the type of collaboration and communication in
the trend team, and a standardization of expert interviews are dealt with.
102 J. Blechschmidt
Generate Impact
The best trend analysis is useless if no insights are derived from

it, no measures are decided and implemented in the company. This
requires more than just a good methodology and thorough analysis. This
includes:
• the purposeful communication of the results;

• systematic dovetailing with corporate processes;
• acceptance by users and decision-makers.
To generate sustainable positive change in a company, the recom-

mendations must be successfully transferred to the company’s standard
organization and processes. For this, sometimes quite trivial things must
be considered, which are examined in more detail in Sect. 9.4.
Proactive Activities
Trend analysis is not always commissioned by people outside the trend

team, who later incorporate the results into their work. In particular, the
units that are strongly involved in operations often lack the time to deal
intensively with external changes. In practice, therefore, even without
a direct assignment, specific research is conducted into trends with an
impact on core processes, products, and technologies to later spread the
findings in the company. Tasks here are:
• the selection of trends relevant to the company;

• the proactive triggering of trend discussions;
• the implementation of suitable formats (e.g., workshops, lectures,
and communication channels) to bring trend knowledge to relevant
company functions.
Understanding the specific situation of the company as well as the

strategic challenges is an important prerequisite for successful proac-
tive activities. This requires a regular exchange with all key areas of the
company.
Support with Trend Knowledge
Over the course of time, the trend team accumulates a great deal of inter-
esting and helpful knowledge on a wide variety of future topics. A team
that is known and accepted within the company is therefore repeatedly
asked for support on a wide variety of occasions, such as for:
• Impulse presentations on future topics as part of internal and external

company events;
• Supporting sales at customer events, for example, with presentations
and workshops;
• Participation in innovation or strategy workshops as well as various
boards;
• Participation in (strategic) decision-making bodies;
• Selective research on specific topics;
• Assessment and evaluation of planned measures.
The trend radar as a big picture of the future is a popular starting point
for communicating desired changes, because it can justify the importance
of activities at a high, generally understandable level. A trend team that
can present its findings in an inspiring and entertaining way is often and
gladly involved.
9.2 Implementation
To set up trend management, the young trend team first starts by
agreeing on their objectives. For this purpose, discussions must be held
with all important stakeholders, at least with the main client. Typically,
there is a desire to first obtain an overview of the company-relevant
trends. The focus is thus on creating a trend radar.
First Trend Radar Cycle
In the first few weeks, the work focuses on defining the methodology
and approach, which frequently takes 2–3 months, especially if the trend
104 J. Blechschmidt
radar is to be supported by software, which must first be selected. Deci-

sions are made about the possible involvement of external consultants,
with whom several meetings must be held. Should the company decide
to engage external consultants, some of the steps described below will no
longer be carried out by the trend team itself. The team’s scope of work
will be reduced depending on the type of assignment. However, the work
steps remain essentially unchanged.
Now, the first trends are first roughly evaluated, and the procedure is
tested on them. In parallel, the result documents are drafted. The depth
of the assessment depends on the information required to classify the
trends on the trend radar. The focus is initially on the generally known,
major trends where the relevance for the company is obvious. Based on
this, an initial trend radar is created and published.
When the trend radar is completed, the first attempt is made to derive
company-relevant findings. Specifically, the trend assessments in the
radar are compared with the situation in the company. Is the company
already adequately positioned according to the classification of the trends
on the radar? If the current company situation corresponds to the assess-
ment, the company is properly positioned from a trend perspective and
no further activities are required. Deviations indicate a need for action,
which is discussed and, if required, leads to concrete measures.
The discussion focuses on mature trends where the need for action is
timely and obvious. Since trend analysis was a previously unaddressed
field, these trends already provide many starting points. It is also not
difficult to define concrete measures. The company may lack suitable
structures to operationalize some of them. However, solving this problem
is not the task of the trend team.
Second Trend Radar Cycle
Now trend management has gone through the first trend radar cycle and
the focus of the work is shifting. Methodically, concepts and working
methods must be optimized by the feedback received and the deficits
identified. Operationally, the evaluation of further trends comes to the
fore. Trends are analyzed in increasing content detail, and the first trend
studies are produced. The results not only flow into the trend radar but
are also communicated independently within the company.
The completion of the second trend radar cycle brings new challenges.
This time, it is possible to look back and see how the findings of the first
cycle have impacted the company. If it turns out that little has changed,
the relationship of trend management to the other corporate processes
must be improved. However, expectations should not yet be too high.
Establishing a new task in a company is a learning process that will not
succeed perfectly the first time.
The content of the new trend radar will not have changed completely.
For many trends, relevance and maturity do not change much from year
to year. Trends for which the measures decided on in the previous cycle
are now effective in the company do not need to be discussed as much
in the current cycle. The focus shifts to the (few) trends with major
movements on the radar and, of course, to the newly added trends.
Continuous Further Work
Over time, independent teams will develop within the company with
activities based in particularly on relevant trends. They will accumulate
a great deal of knowledge and experience through the implementation
of the decided measures. It is possible that a portfolio of products and
services will develop in line with the trends and will be continuously
refined. Trend management has thus achieved important changes and
can increasingly turn its attention to other trends.
For example, the trend team is increasingly devoting itself to younger
trends that do not yet have a direct impact on the company and therefore
will not be dealt with by any existing division. These remain the respon-
sibility of the trend team until they have further matured, and concrete
approaches have been identified.
As a trend is operationalized, members of the trend team occasion-
ally move to the group that is operationalizing the topic. In addition to
interesting professional development options for the employee, this also
ensures seamless knowledge transfer.
In this way, trend management continues to develop from cycle to
cycle. It must, because although the introduction of a trend radar and
106 J. Blechschmidt
trend studies attracted a lot of attention in the beginning, the allure of

the new quickly fades. The quality of the content is the only thing that
remains and justifies the trend work.
The process described here can often be found, even though the indi-
vidual design will be specific for each company. Other approaches also
occur, especially if there are already trend activities in the company that
can be used as a starting point.
9.3 Bringing About Decisions

The discussion in the circle of decision-makers is the point at which
the findings from the trend work find their way into the company. The
challenge here is to reduce a large number of relevant findings to a few,
decisive core statements or, in the case of impulses, to focus on the really
significant or surprising topics. No matter how much work is involved
in trend analysis, these core statements are the crucial basis for business
decisions. Accordingly, a lot of attention must be paid to their identi-
fication and wording. All other details serve to provide argumentative
support for the core statements.
To avoid a false sense of security, the uncertainties that are inseparably
linked to the future must be clearly mentioned. This can be achieved
by listing supporting and opposing evidence for each core statement,
resulting in a rough classification of the confidence level (such as high,
medium, and low). In the case of differing opinions, such a listing can
support the line of reasoning.
The great value of trend analysis lies in the recognition of future devel-
opments that are not in attention during normal day-to-day business.
Since they are not yet visible and most people are not yet aware of them,
these results may initially meet resistance in the circle of decision-makers.
The fact that people like to seek confirmation of their worldview occa-
sionally leads to difficult discussions. A transparent methodology of trend
analysis, combined with clear argumentation of the findings, can give
statements about the future a high degree of persuasiveness. Only when
the key people are convinced will decisions not only be made but also
implemented.
For this process to work, different challenges must be specifically

addressed:
Individual Experience Background
Most decision-makers are familiar with trends from a wide variety of

sources and have already formed their own opinions, which occasion-
ally differ significantly from the assessment of the trend team. Differing
opinions among decision-makers can lead to lengthy discussions about
the “correct assessment” of a trend, with no clear answer due to the fuzzy
information base. At worst, it can lead to a general questioning of the
usefulness of trend evaluation.
To avoid this situation, the trend analysis methodology that leads
to the evaluation of each trend must be understood and accepted by
decision-makers. With confidence in the sound methodology as well as
in the trend team conducting the assessment, results that deviate from
one’s own opinion are more readily accepted. The trend evaluation thus
becomes an accepted information source for decision-making.
Acceptance of Recommendations
Once the methodology has been accepted and the result is consid-
ered valid, the question arises as to what concrete measures are to be
derived from it. The general recommendations of the trend analysis
provide the basic direction, but at the same time limit the decision-
makers’ room for maneuver. Therefore, the methodology for deriving the
recommendations must also be transparent and accepted.
Comparison with the Status in the Company
A concrete recommendation for action requires a comparison with the

status of the company for the topic under consideration. In particular in
large companies, there are often numerous ongoing activities. Findings
from previous projects are relevant to the recommendations in various
forms but are usually very scattered and not always transparent. The
108 J. Blechschmidt
current company situation forms the basis on which the recommenda-

tion must be built. Therefore, existing activities must be systematically
identified and evaluated, which is often done by the trend team itself.
Particularly in large companies, transparency of ongoing activities is
a great added value, even independently of the actual decision-making
process. Sometimes, it connects actors who previously knew nothing
about each other. In addition, people are identified who, due to their
previous experience, can play an important role in implementing the
decisions.
Derivation of Concrete Measures
In addition to pure trend analysis, many other factors play a role in

strategic decisions:
• Company perspective: Many things that look promising from the

perspective of trend analysis may be less interesting from an over-
arching point of view. For example, a product opportunity can
be dispensed with if it would create a competitive situation with
important business partners or if the accompanying investments, for
example, in setting up the necessary sales and service structures, would
be too big. This might include a deliberate restriction to certain
parts of the value chain, such as foregoing the end-customer market.
As a result, trend developments that initially appear interesting lose
relevance.
• Current situation: Findings from trend analysis come up against an
existing company situation with a wide range of projects and activi-
ties, competencies, machinery, and equipment. The better the existing
situation matches the identified opportunities, the shorter the imple-
mentation time and the higher the probability of success. Such
insights are therefore much more attractive and should be prioritized
accordingly.
• Competitive situation: Entrepreneurial decisions also depend on the
specific competitive environment. The strengths and weaknesses of
competitors compared to one’s own company, as well as their posi-

tioning and activities, must be considered when evaluating the find-
ings. Other companies may be so far ahead technologically that it
would be difficult for an own offering to be successful. They may
also have better access to key suppliers, raw materials, or market
segments. An advantageous positioning of a company should lead to
a preferential approach to certain trend insights.
• Economic situation: Not all insights can be implemented immedi-
ately, as a company’s financial and human resources are limited.
Prioritization and the spread of activities over time are necessary. In
difficult economic times, the available budgets become tighter and
fewer projects can be carried out. A different yardstick then applies to
the remaining activities, such as a fast return on investment. Projects
must deliver a quick contribution to results; longer term or uncertain
opportunities are put on hold.
These examples show that a business decision cannot be made solely

from a trend perspective. They always require matching with the current,
specific situation of the company. All relevant information should come
together in the circle of decision-makers so that high-impact strategic
decisions can ultimately be made.
9.4 Practice Tips

Extensive research, precise analyses, systematically derived findings, and
well-argued recommendations are important prerequisites for future-
proof management decisions. However, due to the uncertainty associated
with an undetermined future, no consequences that are correct in a
mathematical sense can be derived from trend analyses. To neverthe-
less be successful as a trend team and bring about positive changes in
a company, the following practice tips are helpful. Some of them have
already been mentioned in the previous chapters but will be summarized
again here.
110 J. Blechschmidt
The Trend Team is Responsible for the Trend Assessment
The trend team has sovereignty over the evaluation system and ensures
that the trend analysis is as objective as possible. The knowledge and
assessment of individual persons are included as information in the eval-
uation process, but then critically scrutinized like any other information.
This avoids the subjective distortion of the evaluation by individual
opinions.
Collect Knowledge from Inside the Company
With each new trend, the trend team must familiarize itself with another,
previously unknown topic. Particularly in larger companies, knowledge
about almost all trends already exists in the heads of various employees,
even if these are not always easy to identify. Picking up on existing knowl-
edge not only makes trend analysis easier but it also avoids these people
later speaking out against the results because they feel left out or even
ignored. Conversely, due to their existing knowledge, these individuals
can be helpful in implementing decided measures later.
Practice Tip
In practice, one often finds the aspiration to involve as many people as

possible in the trend evaluation and thus to tap the knowledge available
in the company and to increase the acceptance of the results. The effort
required is low if appropriate software is used.
With this approach, there will always be a range of assessments due to
the different knowledge and perspectives of the individual persons, which
mitigates extreme assessments through purely statistical effects. This leads
to less incisive statements, can mask high pressure for action, and create
false security. Individuals with little knowledge of the respective topics
will also give subjective opinions and thus dilute the weight of well-
founded assessments by the (few) specialists.
It is therefore advisable to have trends evaluated only by people with
professional experience in this topic. In addition, the trend team must
have the opportunity to question individual assessments and subsequently
adjust them if necessary.
Findings Are Not Yet Recommendations
In the first step, a trend analysis looks outside the company and provides
important insights into the development of a trend and its influence
on the company. However, the actual benefit of the analysis only arises
when it is compared with the specific situation of the company, for
which detailed knowledge of the individual divisions, their strengths and
weaknesses, and current activities is required.
This comparison is not necessarily the task of the trend team.
However, the team must be the driver of the process and ensure that the
company-specific interpretation takes place. Only the concrete measures
derived from trend analysis justify the effort and thus the existence of the
trend team.
Decision-Makers Decide, Not the Trend Team
The effectiveness of a trend analysis depends on how well the respective

decision-makers can be convinced of the findings. This requires good
interaction between the trend team and the decision-makers as well as
an argumentation specifically tailored to the decision-makers’ objectives
and criteria. Expected inquiries can already be addressed in the reports
in advance.
Create Acceptance Early
For recommendations to be seriously considered, the findings of the

trend analysis must not be doubted. In every company, there are persons
of elevated importance. These can be decision-makers and other opinion
leaders, due to their agreed competence and company network. The early
involvement of these people in the process of trend evaluation increases
the later acceptance of the results. In the best case, the result of the anal-
ysis is already supported by several units of the organization when it is
published.
112 J. Blechschmidt
Reconcile Recommendations for Action
Recommendations for action are suggestions of concrete tasks and activ-

ities that the company should carry out. In this way, they influence the
work of employees or departments that will later be tasked with execu-
tion. To promote smooth implementation, these units can be involved
in the drafting of the recommendations at an early stage. In addition
to increased acceptance, this also ensures that the recommendations are
realistic and can be implemented within the scope of existing company
capabilities. However, the core statements of the trend analysis must not
be watered down by the self-interests of the respective employees and
departments.
Addressee-Specific Communication
Trend study and trend radar are typical products of trend management
and document the main findings. For specific questions, however, only
certain excerpts and results are relevant. The information is therefore
tailored to the specific target group and communicated individually to
the relevant units.
No Fear of Polarizing Statements
Some findings of a trend analysis will contradict common opinions in the

company. Developments that challenge established ways of seeing and
doing things are difficult to accept, and their influence is downplayed.
Possible disruptive developments may be ignored due to their low prob-
ability of occurrence. It is then difficult to be heard as a trend team.
This makes it even more important to communicate the findings clearly.
Polarizing and even provocative formulations can have a shaking-up
effect and trigger discussions. Particularly in the case of major changes,
early acceptance of the new is the best prerequisite for a successful future.
Create Structures for the Implementation of Recommendations
Not every recommendation can be implemented with the company’s

existing capabilities. The more the current positioning of a company
is called into question, the less suitable the established structures are
for implementation. Suitable ways of implementation must be created
for such issues. Often, these are new teams that initially drive disrup-
tive developments to a defined level of maturity detached from the
current business. Enabling meaningful framework conditions is the task
of management. In its role, the trend team must point out the necessity
and initiate the process.
In summary, trend analysis must be methodologically sound, compre-
hensible, and transparent. It must be relevant to the company and
focused on bringing about positive change. The results are clear, realistic,
and company-specific recommendations to the relevant decision-makers.
Trend management has only achieved its goal when its recommendations
are implemented.

• Identify company units that would benefit from systematic trend
management and start talks to define the objective.
• Form a trend team appropriate to the objective and create the
necessary framework conditions for its work.
• Define an initial interim goal, such as the creation of a trend radar,
and give the trend team sufficient time to work. Keep in mind that
the development of the first draft requires several iterations.
• Work in an agile manner and discuss intermediate results of the
methodology and elaboration regularly with various people.
• This will get the trend management started. It can then evolve
continuously.
10
A Word in Closing
It is a great challenge to make future-proof decisions in a dynamic,

complex world, especially since the future is strongly influenced by
chance, and insights that seem logical today may already be wrong
tomorrow.
But if this is the case, what exactly is the benefit of trend manage-
ment? Why do we believe that we can make better decisions today by
dealing with the future? It is the open view of future-influencing factors
that makes opportunities and risks clearer, expands the thinking space of
corporate leaders, and enables early initiative.
Psychologist and Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman put it this
way:
It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpre-

dictable world. However, it seems fair to blame professionals for believing
they can succeed in an impossible task [1].
Trend analysis is not about attempting the impossible, but about

exhausting the possible. To do this, trend analysts must be experts in
methodology to avoid thinking traps and craft errors. Trend managers
must also master the art of making the highly uncertain insights from
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64703-5_10
116 J. Blechschmidt
future observations applicable for a company to bring about positive

change.
The future remains uncertain, but your own future is getting better.
Reference
1. Kahneman, D (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. Doubleday Canada.

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More information about this series at

ISSN 2731-4758 ISSN 2731-4766 (electronic)

The future is an exciting topic. We are fascinated by the infinite possibil-

This is exactly the situation we find in companies every day. There,

systematic trend management in your company. The transfer-to-practice

Zornheim, Germany Jörg Blechschmidt

1 About Trends in General 1

5 Trend Analysis: Understanding Effects 51

What You Take Away from This Chapter

1.1 The Future

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022 1

which can be right or wrong, inaccurate, or incomplete. And unexpected

All decisions are based on assumptions about the future.

When we choose an apprenticeship, we assume that we will be able to

In particular, in a corporate context, it is usually a matter of concrete

1.2 Diffusion of Innovations

Late Majority (34%)

Early Majority (34%)

Fig. 1.1 Diffusion model by Rogers, own illustration according to [1]

is to bring an innovation into a new environment. They thus make its

at a steadily increasing disadvantage compared to the early majority, so

development of the future is thus always an interplay of a wide variety of

1.3 Gartner Hype Cycle

Fig. 1.2 Gartner Hype Cycle, own illustration according to [2]

broad acceptance. A technology can be assigned a position on the Hype

1. Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things

As in the diffusion model, the interaction between technologies and

not uncommon for inferior technologies to gain acceptance, when they

A trend is a theoretical construct to simplify dealing with the future.

A trend is thus a methodical tool for making complex changes

It reduces the possibility of coincidence and allows the derivation of a

Even trends that are beyond a company’s direct influence, such as

A trend is a simplified description of an overarching development that

In the sense of this trend definition, innovations whose spread is

Virtual Reality Oculus Rift Virtual Reality Glasses

known to these people by name, which suggests they were developers

Evolution as a Thought Pattern for Trends

A nice mental picture for the development of trends is the natural

1.5 Trend Recognition

Trend research is the process of deriving trends from the observation of

Early definitions of the term limit trend research to the observation

In the context of trend analysis, a black swan refers to a highly rare or

While trend research is concerned with understanding the changes

concerned with identifying specific influences, in our case on a company

Trend analysis analyzes the influence of identified trends on a defined

Trend research usually takes place in specialized companies, such as

1.6 Trend Types

often representing the top category, which is expanded by subcategories

• Socio-cultural trends that have a duration of around 10 years and

Fig. 1.4 Trends and megatrends

• Consumer and zeitgeist trends lasting up to 8 years.

The Zukunftsinstitut defines metatrends as a level above megatrends.

Megatrends are long-lasting social, technological, economic, ecological, or

In our very interconnected world, the parameters of duration, theme,

Table 1.1 Megatrends of selected consulting firms (as of May 2020)

names in several sources, such as New Work/Future Work/Changed

Your Transfer into Practice

What You Take Away from This Chapter

We need trends as a methodological tool to make complex changes

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022 21

history from which to extrapolate and no set of figures to back up the

The problems mentioned do not stem from poor working practices or