The Future of Knowledge Work

Andy Hines and Chris Carbone

scenarios for our clients, and readers will

K nowledge work is being reshaped by a
variety of social and technological forces
that together will alter how it is distributed,
find a description of implications following
each scenario organized according to these
organized, and performed in coming years. six activities. We originally broke out learning
Although it is rather straightforward to imag- as a separate activity but decided that it is so
ine what knowledge work will look like if essential to knowledge work that it permeates
present trends continue, other futures are all the activities.
possible. This article examines the future
of knowledge work over the next decade. USE OF THE SCENARIO ARCHETYPE
It is based on a research project that used PLANNING METHOD
scenario planning to explore four possible
futures for knowledge work and was con- Our experience in running scenario-planning
ducted on behalf of 17 corporate sponsors.1 exercises over the years indicates that orga-
Those original findings are updated here. nizations are routinely most creative when
they are presented with a set of scenarios that
DEFINING KNOWLEDGE WORK challenge widely held assumptions. Once the
scenarios are accepted as possible futures,
Davenport suggests, “Knowledge workers people begin to think outside the standard
have high degrees of expertise, education or “what’s-worked-in-the-past” mind-set
experience, and the primary purpose of their and develop truly transformative insights and
jobs involves the creation, distribution or ideas. A well-constructed, challenging sce-
application of knowledge.”2 In framing the nario process can provoke an organization to
topic for our study, we considered how four rise to the challenge of “extraordinary think-
areas of knowledge work are changing: work- ing.” And given the many forces of change
ers, work spaces, work tools, and work models. acting on the world of work today, there is
These broad areas were further broken down no better time than the present to call on this
into subcategories, as shown in Exhibit 1. This capacity.
domain map guided our research, in which Bishop, Hines, and Collins noted that there
we identified more than 120 trends influenc- are more than two dozen ways to create sce-
ing the future of knowledge work. narios.3 This study employed the archetype
We also considered the principal activities approach. The basic idea behind this approach
that are conducted by knowledge workers, is that when one looks across several decades
which are summarized in Exhibit 2. of scenario planning and foresight work, four
These work activities were especially valu- common—or archetypal—patterns of change
able in exploring the implications of the four tend to emerge: continuation, collapse, a

© 2013 WileyPeriodicals,
2013 Wiley Periodicals,Inc.
Inc. 1
Published online
Published onlineininWiley
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OnlineLibrary (wileyonlinelibrary.com).
Library DOI 10.1002/ert.XXXXX
(wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI 10.1002/ert.21394
Employment Relations Today

Exhibit 1. Knowledge-Work Domain Map

Exhibit 2. Knowledge-Work Activities

2 Andy Hines and Chris Carbone

Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert

Continuation
Collapse
New
Equilibrium
Transformation
Exhibit 3. The Four Archetypal Scenario Patterns
“new equilibrium,” or a transformation. (See
Exhibit 3.) By employing the archetype
method, it is possible to rapidly generate four
plausible—and sharply different—views of
the future. In the descriptions that follow, it
is useful to think of the “system” as the “cur-
rent ways of doing things.”
MILESTONES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
KNOWLEDGE WORK
To help ground readers and to provide con-
text to how we arrived at where we are
today, key milestones in the development
of knowledge work are highlighted in the
timeline in Exhibit 4. Although the con-
cept was introduced as early as 1959, key
enabling developments such as telecommut-
ing and personal computing kicked off in the
1970s. Outsourcing was a key development
of the 1980s. The launch of the web was the
most significant development of the 1990s,
although several other important develop-
ments that hit their stride in the 2000s begin
in the 1990s: smart devices, e-commerce,
and virtual collaboration. The emergence
of various social media stands out as a key
The Future of Knowledge Work
Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
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The system moves forward along its current trajectory. It is “present
trends continued”; usually considered most likely to happen.
The system falls apart under the weight of “negative” driving forces
and typically reverts back to an earlier form.
The system reaches a balance among competing forces that is
significantly different from the current balance. There can be
significant change, but it is within the framework of the current
system.
The system is discarded in favor of a new one with a new set of
rules.
development in knowledge work over the last
decade.
Drivers of Change in Knowledge Work
Our team explored over 120 key business
and technology trends and shifts in consumer
values in the first phase of our project. These
elements were brought together and synthe-
sized into 17 catalysts, or drivers of change,
that we believe will shape the future of
knowledge work. We then analyzed how each
catalyst might play out under each of the four
archetypes and used this analysis to create a
narrative description of each scenario. The 17
catalysts are described in the list that follows.
1. Performance Enhancement. Knowledge
work demands new skill sets and new
performance-evaluation tools that assess
individual creative contributions and
their impact on the bottom line. Employ-
ers are being measured in new ways, too,
as knowledge workers tend to have more
nonmonetary job expectations than in
the past: engagement, camaraderie, and
fulfillment.
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Milestones in the Development of Knowledge Work

Industrial Revolution

• Late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries: Work meant “going to work”; the
Industrial Revolution created the clear separation between work and home.

Knowledge Workers

• 1959: Peter Drucker coined the term knowledge workers. “Knowledge workers require
that the demands be made on them by knowledge rather than by people. They require a
performance-oriented organization rather than an authority-oriented organization. . . .”a

Telecommuting

• 1970: Jack Niles coined the term telecommuting in response to the realization that the
world’s fossil fuels were finite and that energy conservation was necessary.
• 1990: The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 required the nation’s most polluted
regions to reduce the number of single-occupant vehicles by up to 13 percent.
• 2000: The number of US workers teleworking more than eight hours per week hit
6 million.
• 2009: The number of US workers teleworking more than eight hours per week hit
14 million.

Personal Computing

• 1977: Release of Apple II.

• 1981: Release of IBM PC “5150” and MS-DOS.
• 1987: Release of PowerPoint.
• 1992: Release of IBM ThinkPad 700 laptop.
• 1993: Release of Intel’s Pentium chip processor.

Outsourcing

• Thomas Friedman noted, “The PC, the Internet, and fiber-optic cable had created
the possibility of a whole new form of collaboration and horizontal value creation:
outsourcing.”b
• 1980s: Outsourcing started with blue-collar jobs.
• 1990s: Outsourcing expanded to white-collar jobs.

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Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
 Spring 2013

World Wide Web

• 1990: Tim Berners-Lee developed the World Wide Web.

• 1994: Release of Mosaic Netscape browser.
• 1994: AOL 2.0 featured USENET and Web access.

Smart Devices

• 1996: Palm popularized “PDAs.”

• 1999: Release of BlackBerry handheld e-mail device.
• 2007: Release of first iPhone.
• 2008: Release of code for and first phone based on the Android open-source mobile
software platform.
• 2010: Release of first iPad.

E-Commerce

• 1995: EBay was founded.

• 2001: Napster was shut down, ending “free” music.
• 2003: Amazon posted first net profit.
• 2003: iTunes store opened.

Virtual Collaboration

• 1990s: Development of Groupware (e.g., Lotus Notes) applications.

• 2004: Release of web-based project management tools (e.g., Basecamp).
• 2006: Cisco’s Telepresence linked two separate physical rooms.
• 2007: Second Life membership reached 10 million.
• 2011: IBM’s Smarter Computing framework and Apple’s iCloud were launched.

Social Media

• 2003: Release of del.icio.us for social bookmarking.

• 2003: Launch of LinkedIn for professional networking.
• 2004: Launch of Flickr for image sharing.
• 2004: Launch of Facebook.
• 2006: Launch of Twitter.
• 2011: 156 million public blogs in existence.

Exhibit 4. Timeline of Milestones in the Development of Knowledge Work

a Drucker,
P. (1959). The landmarks of tomorrow. New York, NY: Harper & Brothers.
b
Friedman, T. (2005). The world is flat. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

The Future of Knowledge Work 5

Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
Employment Relations Today
2. Transparency and Big Data. Knowledge
work is increasingly conducted, stored,
and shared via digital technologies—offering
the opportunity to analyze content—and
even worker behavior—and improve pro-
cesses. Transparency-enabling technolo-
gies, fueled by “Big Data,” allow real-time
feedback features to monitor, analyze, and
improve ongoing knowledge work. Yet with
nearly every aspect of life open to scrutiny,
the protection of privacy, confidentiality,
and proprietary information—governmen-
tal, business, and personal—becomes ever
more challenging.
3. Outsourcing to Consumers. Companies
are increasingly outsourcing portions of the
value chain—from R&D and content devel-
opment to marketing and advertising—to
A globally connected, virtual culture is emerging
as more and more of the world’s social, busi-
ness, and consumer interactions take place
somewhere online.
consumers, gaining benefits along the way
(cost, loyalty, increased personalization of
products, etc.). In some cases, companies
are entering what look more like partner-
ships with their consumers than simple
producer–consumer relationships.
4. Generational Shifts. Boomers are mov-
ing toward and into retirement or encore
careers, while Gen Xers and millennials
fill the ranks of US business, bringing with
them different expectations, goals, and
work styles more closely associated with
being digital natives. By 2020, the next
generation (Gen Z, born after 1999) will be
poised to enter the knowledge workforce—
bringing their new perspectives with
them.
6 Andy Hines and Chris Carbone
5. Rise of the Emerging-Market Knowl-
edge Workforce. New middle classes are
emerging around the world—from China
to Brazil to South Africa—and these work-
ers are hungry for the opportunities long
enjoyed by their counterparts in the more
developed world.
6. Dharma by Design. The design of office
space and general working conditions
increasingly takes into account such
issues as environmental sustainability,
energy efficiency, and worker comfort as
the relationship between environment
and productivity becomes easier to mea-
sure and optimize.
7. My Space. The new knowledge economy
provides workers and consumers alike
with increasing opportunities to custom-
ize and personalize their workspaces,
the tech tools they use, and even where,
when, and how they work. The BYOD
(bring your own device) trend is chang-
ing the tools and devices that knowledge
workers use on the job.
8. Setting Limits. Work/life blur, debt,
heightened job competitiveness, and time
pressure are causing increased stress.
This is causing some people to seek
greater balance and embrace simplicity
and balance. The idea of “digital detox”
has come into vogue, even among some
key members of the tech community.
9. Blurring Life Boundaries. The prolif-
eration of smartphones, tablet comput-
ers, laptops, and always-on connections
means colleagues and family are never
out of reach—making it ever more dif-
ficult to escape intrusions of work into
family life (and vice versa).
10. Virtual Teaming. A globally connected,
virtual culture is emerging as more
and more of the world’s social, business,
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and consumer interactions take place
somewhere online.
11. Sharing. Sharing is becoming a more
important aspect of business—and
personal—life in the digital age. It is now
possible to eschew ownership of physical
assets (offices, hard drives, cars, etc.), yet
still gain necessary access to these things
through collaborative consumption, cloud
services, open innovation, and other
novel arrangements.
12. Value Capture. The more open nature of
the knowledge economy poses challenges
to traditional business models. The abil-
ity to share information quickly, easily,
and widely makes it increasingly difficult
to protect intellectual property (IP), and
consumer expectations for what should
be “free” continue to escalate.
13. Workforce of One. With knowledge
workers leaving corporate employment to
stake out their own claims as free agents,
and companies increasingly farming out
knowledge work to outside agencies, both
domestic and abroad, new project-based
models for workflow management are
emerging.
14. Integration of Virtual and Real. New
technologies, including virtual-world
applications and contextual and seman-
tic resource software, allow knowledge
workers to automate many support tasks
and optimize their communications.
This compels companies to develop new
frameworks for assigning workflows that
seamlessly integrate the virtual and real
and minimize information overload.
15. Competing with Complexity. The intri-
cacies of navigating the modern global
system have never been more daunting.
Resource scarcity and market homog-
enization, to name just two, are trends
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generating greater complexity and uncer-
tainty in today’s knowledge-based econ-
omy.
16. AI Gets Real. Artificial intelligence (AI)
and expert systems are growing more
capable and will increasingly be inte-
grated into commercial and consumer-
facing applications.
17. Rise of the Cloud. The move to cloud
computing—data storage, applications,
platforms, computing power, and man-
aged services being delivered over the
Internet rather than hosted on personal
computers—is under way.
Exhibit 5 illustrates how the catalysts
emerged out of the domain map.
FOUR SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF
KNOWLEDGE WORK
A set of scenarios for the future of knowledge
work was developed based on variations—aka
options—of the 17 catalysts. These options
were analyzed to provide the best fit for
each of the four classic scenario archetypes
described earlier (continuation, collapse, new
equilibrium, and transformation). The options
that told the most compelling story for each
archetype are integrated into a narrative that
describes what knowledge work would look
like under each scenario. The key building
blocks of each scenario are summarized in
Exhibits 6, 7, 8, and 9, organized along the
four categories of the domain map—workers,
work space, work tools, and work models—as
well as two additional categories that were
added to provide a more nuanced view: the
work environment and the overall business
context.
Each scenario, thus, is described with
a summary, a brief scenario narrative, the
key building blocks, and a discussion of the
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Employment Relations Today
Exhibit 5. Catalysts Shaping Knowledge Work
implications for the six key knowledge work
activities listed in Exhibit 2.
Scenario 1: Virtual Teams Collaborating
(Continuation)
Work is increasingly virtual, but progress is evolu-
tionary rather than revolutionary. Thorny issues,
such as transparency intruding on privacy, slow
the introduction of new technologies and prac-
tices. The result is that work in 2020 is far more
decentralized and different in many respects, but
the transition to the world of knowledge work in
2020 is manageable.
8 Andy Hines and Chris Carbone
As the millennial generation makes up a
greater percentage of the workforce, they
drive changes in the overall work environ-
ment. Companies seek to capitalize on digital
natives’ skills and habits and create work
processes and spaces that maximize their per-
formance. Advances in sensing and data ana-
lytics provide workers continuous feedback,
and new, more accurate measures of perfor-
mance affect everything from promotions and
salaries to how people are valued and market
themselves to prospective employers.
Continued efforts to hold down cost in
the wake of the Great Recession mean a rise
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in telecommuting, virtual teams, and a new
wave of freelance knowledge workers—all
of which steadily decentralizes knowledge
work. All of this happens, though, at a pace
that makes it feel much more like an evolu-
tion than a knowledge work revolution, and
many firms still try to skate by using twenti-
eth-century work models.
Implications for Knowledge Work
❏ Content Creation and Management.
Organizations have to continue to become
more and more comfortable with the ideas
of open innovation.
❏ Work Processes. To maintain efficiency,
organizations will need to simplify work
processes and adopt tools that have little
to no learning curve, due to the increased
use of freelancers and other “outsiders.”
❏ Collaboration. Collaboration between
employees and the “network” is a key to
success and suggests that organizations
need to cultivate a more open, collabora-
tive culture to succeed even in this—the
most conservative, business-as-usual—
scenario.
❏ Decision Making. As work is done by a
more diverse band of employees, network
partners, and other freelancers, organi-
zational charts will become incredibly
complex. Add into this the fact that team
members may never actually see each
other face to face, and it will become more
critical to clearly define and vividly com-
municate lines of authority and where
decision-making powers lie.
❏ Communications. Organizational invest-
ments in collaboration and information
technology (IT) tools will need to rise
under this scenario as work becomes
increasingly virtual and distributed.
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❏ Management and Leadership. Managers
are challenged to maximize the efficiency of
both internal and external resources as work
becomes more collaborative and virtual
under this scenario. One can imagine a new
strategic role for “chief collaboration officer”
becoming more common under this sce-
nario and sitting somewhere between HR,
IT, and Operations. Human resource profes-
sionals will face new rising concerns related
to privacy and performance evaluation
workers and contractors alike, as new mea-
surement and accountability tools emerge.
Scenario 2: Back to Basics (Collapse)
Innovative approaches to knowledge work are put on
the back burner as tough economic times and high-
profile security breaches call new modes of work into
question. “Back to basics” becomes the mantra.
Organizations have been through a lot:
the Great Recession (and a slow recovery);
adjusting to new generations in the workplace
and the conflicts this causes; and the need
to integrate a constant stream of new tech
tools—which often fail to provide a return on
investment. To make matters worse, a series
of high-profile security breaches in 2013–14
call into question recent investments in cloud
computing. Decision makers begin to feel as
though the benefits of “living and working in
the cloud” may have been hyped, and the shift
to new modes of work pursued too aggres-
sively given the state of Internet security.
Organizations begin to let their contractor
agreements expire and instead hire locally,
although on a limited basis. Management
also begins to exert more control on informa-
tion and decision making, further refocusing
operations on the traditional office. There is
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Building Blocks
Category Summary
Workers Millennials and the oldest members of Gen Z flood the workforce, but many
operate as freelancers.
Work Space Knowledge work is increasingly decentralized, thanks to ubiquitous connec-
tivity and an increase in telecommuting.
Work Tools Knowledge-based companies embrace transparency, feedback, and the as-
yet unrealized promise of virtual integration as tools with the potential to
improve their ability to navigate the rising flood of data and information.
Work Models An age in which information wants to be free opens up new channels for
innovation in all aspects of knowledge work—from R&D to manufacturing to
marketing—but challenges old ways of doing business.
Work Knowledge-based organizations aim to optimize performance through work-
Environment place measurement tools, while knowledge workers aim for more balanced
lives by gaining greater control over the way they work.
Business The recovery continues—but is slower in the developed world than in emerg-
Context ing economies, presenting continued challenges to the developed world’s
economic leadership.
Exhibit 6. Scenario 1 Building Blocks

less of an appetite for experimenting with user-generated and customer co-creation

virtual teams and work—and frankly less of a
need as physical workspaces and teams come
back into vogue.
However, there is a silver lining. People
have risen to the challenge of scarcity and
are coming up with new and creative ways
to use what they have. They are embracing
the concept of “enoughness” and in the pro-
cess renewing their care for others and the
environment. Money is wisely spent, if not
at a slower and more cautious rate than in
the past. New industries are being developed
around these emerging and growing value
changes.
Implications for Knowledge Work
❏ Content Creation and Management.
Organizations that have come to rely on
would need to find ways to improve secu-
rity and protect the wellspring of their
innovations—or risk losing access to it
under this scenario.
❏ Work Processes. Work becomes a more
tightly managed and controlled process in
this scenario—and this could be a harsh
wake-up call for those used to the current
environment. If virtual work were to be
curtailed, organizations might face more
conflict in the office. As people are fearful
of losing their jobs, they are willing to do
what is expected—putting in long hours
and making work their top priority. The
work environment is not a pleasant place
to be.
❏ Collaboration. Information is still
power in this environment, but the pen-
dulum would swing back and also make

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Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert

face-to-face relationships and collaboration
important elements of success as virtual
work is curtailed in this scenario. Busi-
nesses could hedge for this scenario by
maintaining some of their training and
professional development focused on these
“old economy” skills.
❏ Decision Making. Centralized decision
making slowly returns to most organiza-
tions under this scenario, which could
cause friction between management and
workers who may be accustomed to voic-
ing their opinions and a generally more
collaborative, egalitarian model of decision
making.
❏ Communications. IT departments would
be under significant pressure under this
scenario. First, they may be blamed for
security breaches, and, second, they would
likely see budgets reduced and refocused
as work becomes less virtual and the
physical office environment becomes more
important again.
❏ Management and Leadership. Manage-
ment and leadership will be challenged
under this scenario to operate in a global-
ized world—but do so in an era refocused
on face-to-face collaboration, physical
offices, and the like. Security issues will be
a management preoccupation, and manag-
ers will need to carefully choose where
the return warrants taking on the risk of
virtual work.
Scenario 3: Socially Centric Work (New
Equilibrium)
Digitization and the rise of social networks cre-
ate new opportunities for collaboration and for
new roles and relationships, as insiders, freelanc-
ers, and even customers routinely work together.
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Although there were challenges during the transi-
tion, they were overcome and work has effectively
reshaped around these new dynamics.
Under the influence of cheap mobile
computing, ubiquitous connectivity, and the
transparency provided by social networks,
the nature of work changes dramatically. It is
driven not by hierarchies or credentials but by
transparency and social networks that effec-
tively match the right people to the right proj-
ects. Companies take advantage of reduced
overhead costs offered by having a virtual
workforce, while workers take advantage of
the convenience of working virtually or the
freedom of freelancing to the highest bidder.
But this change was not seamless, as many
workers—especially boomers and older Gen
Xers—struggled to adapt to this new world of
work. Businesses struggled, too, and were pre-
occupied during the years from about 2012 to
2016 with lingering concerns about intellectual
property leakage, corporate security, competi-
tors poaching freelancers, and other related
issues. Thankfully, these issues are all dealt
with in turn. For example, companies rely on
performance-feedback technologies, which
help mitigate concern about the productiv-
ity and contributions of virtual workers and
freelancers. And a host of new businesses and
services are created to support the burgeon-
ing freelance workforce: co-working centers,
expanded “third-space” options, and digital
guilds that help provide businesses with a
sense that their freelancers are “credentialed,”
while also helping to provide an entity to pro-
tect and fight for the rights of its members.
Implications for Knowledge Work
❏ Content Creation and Management.
Companies begin to make some content
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Building Blocks
Category Summary
Workers Economic pressures prevent boomers from leaving the workforce, resulting
in multiple generations working together and frustrating the Gen X and mil-
lennial ambitions for promotions.
Work Space Workers return to the physical office, which provides more security and con-
trol and reduces risk of failures from the virtual environment.
Work Tools The development of tools for virtual and online collaboration slows, as com-
panies refocus on the physical. The focus is on making do with the tools
that are in place and seeing whether they can be reused in different ways to
offset the complexity and problems that have arisen.
Work Information is held closely, and intellectual-property rights are reasserted.
Models Companies prefer to build internal capacity and limit use of freelancers, sub-
contractors, and consumer cocreation.
Work Work-life balance has tilted toward work, where anxious workers struggle
Environment with an overload of data, complex and incompatible technologies, and
reduced resources.
Business Economic challenges and the renewed focus on local hiring in lieu of virtual
Context teams minimize the impact of emerging-market knowledge workers. Lim-
ited investment funds are spent on internal R&D, building the capacity of
employees, and optimizing existing investments in technology.
Exhibit 7. Scenario 2 Building Blocks

public and reusable, via systems like Cre-
ative Commons. This remixed content is
then brought back in-house for use in proj-
ects. Enforcing intellectual-property rights
becomes more difficult in an open, sharing
world, so most content is openly shared
and there are stringent rules on protect-
ing what is kept proprietary. This scenario
would present significant challenges to
organizations and their IP practices.
❏ Work Processes. Organizations have to
invest further in collaborative platforms
to accommodate the diverse, distributed
teams envisioned by this scenario.
❏ Collaboration. Policies and practices
allowing for remote work mean that tal-
ent can be sourced worldwide. HR would
likely become an increasingly strategic
function within the organization under
this scenario. Organizations would also
need to experiment more with new busi-
ness models (e.g., sharing of profit result-
ing from collaborations).
❏ Decision Making. Questions of balance
and fairness will be at the forefront of
most decision-making criteria under this
scenario, as its openness and diversity of
participants will likely lead to more of a
consensus style of decision making.
❏ Communications. The diversity of an
organization’s workforce (on-site and virtual
employees, freelancers, customer-partners,
etc.) will require HR and other policies to
be amended. Because this scenario implies

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constant connectivity and 24-hour work
cycles, it will also be critical that organiza-
tions establish norms around when it’s OK
not to answer e-mails or be available.
❏ Management and Leadership. Due
to global talent sourcing implied by this
scenario, all managers will be global
managers. Understanding of and attention
to cultural issues will be required of all
managers. Leaders must also effectively
manage—and meld—two organizations:
physical on-site employees and a dynamic
cadre of freelancers and virtual employees.
Scenario 4: Personalized Professions:
Work-Life Blending (Transformation)
Successful new organizational and business
models emerge around knowledge work that frees
workers to personalize their contributions. Work
is a thing one does—largely driven by personal
interest—rather than a place that one goes to,
such that all workers are now thought of as
knowledge workers.
Organizations become more fluid and open
to keep up with workplace virtualization—
and become more like “platforms” that con-
tinually morph than static institutions. New
business models also emerge to acknowledge
this shift—profit-sharing models, licensing
arrangements with DIYers (do-it-yourselfers)
using 3D printers for distributed production,
and so on. The spread of knowledge is so
great that the distinction between knowledge
workers and manual workers has largely dis-
appeared—all workers can be thought of as
knowledge workers in this scenario.
Knowledge workers have unprecedented
flexibility in determining both the nature and
the context of their employment—and most
The Future of Knowledge Work
Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
Spring 2013
knowledge workers now act as free agents.
Sophisticated online marketplaces emerge to
help match employers with potential workers
based on the relative value of their unique
skill sets and detailed work histories. Organi-
zations are able to source perfectly matched
teams on-demand, but with work now domi-
nated by free agents companies are forced to
reevaluate the nature of key elements of their
operations—from IP to compensation and IT
investments.
Businesses use sophisticated information-
monitoring technologies like contextual/
location awareness and complex event pro-
cessing to map contributions within and
across virtual teams and have developed
novel revenue streams for capitalizing on the
knowledge they produce. These market con-
ditions have seen significant changes: new,
product-specific, profit-sharing models; DIY
production processes licensing to consumers
with 3D fabrication labs; and niche consulta-
tion services. Boomers “un-retire” as these
new market conditions enable them to gener-
ate revenue by providing a personal touch in
supporting knowledge processes and hyper-
personalized customer-service offerings.
Implications for Knowledge Work
❏ Content Creation and Management.
Collaboration has become the primary
engine for content development, with
whole companies, departments, and proj-
ect teams linked together through wide
social networks and a variety of tools and
platforms—such as advanced AI, crowd-
sourcing, and virtual reality. Keeping these
networks running smoothly will present
challenges in putting teams together that
have a compatible mix of capability and
skill operating across these environments.
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Building Blocks
Category Summary
Workers The workforce is a mix of office-based employees and telecommuters/
freelancers and heavier on virtual workers than Scenario 1. Employees—
especially those who work virtually—have traded privacy for freedom and
are regularly monitored to assess their contribution.
Work Space The demand for office space has dropped drastically. To match the free-
dom of remote workers, office workers have more leeway in personalizing
their workspace. Office spaces are more adaptable, allowing them to create
more common space when needed. Advances in green design and engi-
neering have made the spaces more environmentally and ergonomically
healthier. For those outside headquarters, the office is wherever a table and
Internet connection can be found.
Work Tools Virtual teaming is routinely used, and there is less distinction made
between virtual and face-to-face meetings. These tools help keep all team
members in the loop, and workers and organizations approve. There have
been no major security breaches to derail the continued push toward vir-
tual work.
Work Online workflow systems facilitate the complex interplay between in-house
Models and outside talent. Detailed tracking of contributions help overcome the
stigma that virtual workers are less productive than on-site employees.
Work The need for the office to exert some control clashed with the idea that
Environment freelancers and teleworkers are free, but these tensions are largely resolved
through more effective virtual environments. Not sharing physical space
has hurt camaraderie, particularly among older workers, but, as virtual
environments improve, organizations find new ways to promote “whole-
staff bonding.”
Business Managers have either learned to accommodate the influx of remote work-
Context ers, including emerging-market team members, or they are no longer man-
agers. The trend to freelancers and consumer-generated content was too
strong to permit old practices, such as monitoring how many hours instead
of the actual results of the project.
Exhibit 8. Scenario 3 Building Blocks

❏ Work Processes. Contextual and loca-
tion-aware technologies automate many
basic work processes, from research
to operations to project management,
thus freeing them from many low-level
and administrative tasks. This will cre-
ate continually changing job and project
requirements, challenging the design
of requirements as well as evaluating
performance.

14 Andy Hines and Chris Carbone

Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert

❏ Collaboration. Organizations will need
to build their capabilities in matchmaking
between the needs of projects, employ-
ees, partners, and work teams, as greater
collaboration means sharing and evalu-
ation of more information such as work
histories, skill set reports, employee-vol-
unteered information, employer/coworker
input, personality tests, and the like.
❏ Decision Making. Market transparency,
decentralized workforces, personalized
working conditions, and collaborative busi-
ness models are flattening and democratiz-
ing organizational authority structures and
decision making. Although this empow-
erment facilitates creativity and innova-
tion and more rapid responses to market
conditions, it could also create potentially
contradictory decisions—or at the other
extreme, a leadership vacuum, as it’s dif-
ficult to determine “who’s in charge.”
❏ Communications. Organizations will be
challenged to create a common platform
for communications, with myriad options
and technologies available, such as virtual
worlds, social networks, telepresence, IM
(instant messaging), e-mail, VoIP (voice
over Internet protocol), and video chat.
❏ Management and Leadership. Manag-
ers will need to balance the freedom given
to their workers with more transparent
oversight so they can more closely monitor
output to ensure progress and productiv-
ity on projects—but not be seen as overly
intrusive. In an age of high-value freelance
employees, decentralized work environ-
ments, and free-flowing information,
inspiring and visionary leadership will
likely be needed to bring cohesion, direc-
tion, collective purpose, and definitive
strategy to these more nebulous and fluid
business enterprises.
The Future of Knowledge Work
Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
Spring 2013
CONCLUSION
Knowledge work is emerging as the central
focus of developed economies, with emerg-
ing markets making forays into it as well.
The research began by describing knowl-
edge work in a domain map (Exhibit 1) and
a breakdown of key activities (Exhibit 2).
They provide a framework for the analysis.
Seventeen catalysts, or key drivers of change,
emerged from combining trends that popu-
lated the domain map (Exhibit 5). Different
outcomes for these catalysts were projected
using a framework of four common arche-
types of change—continuation, collapse,
new equilibrium, and transformation—that
resulted in the four scenarios for the future
of knowledge work (Exhibit 3). The four
scenarios provide a range of different views
of how knowledge work may evolve over the
next decade. The implications of each sce-
Knowledge work is emerging as the central
focus of developed economies, with emerging
markets making forays into it as well.
nario were analyzed by how they affected the
six activities of knowledge work (Exhibit 2).
The scenarios suggest a range of plausible
outcomes for knowledge work out to 2020.
Virtual Teams Collaborating suggests a future
most similar to today, where present trends
continue and strengthen and enable a quite
manageable transition to a greater reliance
on knowledge work. Back to Basics, on the
other hand, presents a plausible picture of
how a greater reliance on knowledge work
is not a given, as tough economic times and
security concerns compel a retreat to a world
of work more like the past than the present.
Socially Centric Work also presents a series
15
Employment Relations Today

Building Blocks
Category Summary
Workers The very idea of work itself is beginning to take on an entirely new
context as the collection and analysis of personal data creates new
opportunities to pair workers with projects, coworkers, and organiza-
tions that naturally fit the particular skill sets and personality traits
of each worker. In this sense, work becomes tied more directly to
each employee’s unique sense of identity and purpose.
Work Space The era of the generic office cubicle is over. Home offices abound
and largely reflect the personality of the user, focusing on per-
sonal comfort and preferred work conditions. Office virtualization
and 24/7 connectivity mean spaces can be digitally reconfigured to
accommodate a wide variety of work preferences.
Work Tools Tools for organizing information quickly, securely, and effectively
are in the highest demand. With work environments becoming more
connected and virtual, technologies that improve worker efficiency
by optimizing communication virtualization and integration, filtering
data flows, and managing work schedules have become essential.
Work Models Work models are designed to promote and facilitate collaboration.
Technologies assisting in document-sharing protocols, task priority
and assignment, knowledge-exchange processes, and data collection
enable ad hoc team networks and help to customize work models
based on the demands of each assignment and the needs of those
working on it.
Work Environment The office has gone virtual, with the vast majority of workers’ activi-
ties taking place online. Technologies that monitor worker behavior
and aptitude have a new dual role, providing managers with targeted
tools for remote oversight and giving virtual communication applica-
tions added depth and realism.
Business Context Personalization technologies also enable organizations to optimize
people allocations, automate operation tasks, and reduce infrastruc-
ture costs significantly. Liberated from these logistical burdens, orga-
nizations develop a stronger focus on customer communications and
innovation strategies, benefiting product and service development
greatly.
Exhibit 9. Scenario 4 Building Blocks

16 Andy Hines and Chris Carbone

Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
 Spring 2013

of challenges to knowledge work, but in this
scenario they are successfully resolved, rely-
ing on a much greater integration of social
networking tools to manage the transition
to the world of knowledge work that goes
deeper than Virtual Teams Collaborating.
Finally, Personalized Professions presents a
more provocative view of knowledge work
that has a transformative effect on how work
is done, leading to a future in which all work-
ers are thought of as knowledge workers.
Human resources professionals can use
these scenarios, and the analyses on which
they are derived, to expand their perspective
and evaluate their long-term strategies against
a range of plausible outcomes. In reality, the
future will likely include elements of all four
of the scenarios described here. As such, HR
professionals who use these scenarios as a
strategic tool will be better prepared to thrive
regardless of the exact nature of knowledge
work in 2020 and beyond.
NOTES
1. Abbott, Boeing, Brown-Forman, FedEx, Herman Miller,
InterContinental Hotels, Hasbro, Kellogg’s, Kraft, Mary
Kay, Nissan, Shell, State Farm, Steelcase, Tekes, UPS, and
Walmart.
2. Davenport, T. (2005). Thinking for a living: How to get
better performance and results from knowledge workers.
Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press; p. 10.
3. Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current
state of scenario development: An overview of techniques.
Foresight, 9(1), 5–25.

Andy Hines, PhD, is lecturer and executive-in-residence at the University of Houston’s

Graduate Program in Futures Studies and consults through his firm Hinesight. His
20-plus years of professional futurist experience include a decade’s experience work-
ing inside first the Kellogg Company and later Dow Chemical, and consulting work
with Coates & Jarratt, Inc. and Social Technologies. His books include ConsumerShift:
How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape, Thinking about the
Future, 2025: Science and Technology Reshapes US and Global Society, and the just-
released Teaching about the Future. He may be contacted at ahines@uh.edu.
Chris Carbone oversees Innovaro, Inc.’s trend and foresight practice and manages its
Global Lifestyles and Technology Foresight research projects. He has worked in futures
research and consulting since 1996, and during this time has authored and overseen the
creation of dozens of trend and scenario reports on subjects ranging from the future of pet
care to future energy technologies. He may be contacted at chris.carbone@innovaro.com.

The Future of Knowledge Work 17

Employment Relations Today DOI 10.1002/ert
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