Unit 10 Probability 8 The numbered cards are shuffled, A card is chosen at random. AaB E Work out the probability of choosing a square number, a prime number or a multiple of 6 For 3 or more mutually exclusive events, P(A or B or C or...) = P(A) + P(B) + PIC) + The probabilities of an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive events sum to 1. 9 Problem-solving The table gives the probability of getting each of 1, 2,3 and 4 on a biased 4-sided spinner. Number ij2]3 Probability | 4x | 3x | 2x | x ‘Work out the probability of getting a 2or4 b lor2or3. Porod For mutually exclusive events A and not 4, P(not A) = 1~ P(A). A and not A are always mutually exclusive ee ‘Abag contains 20 counters. 7 of the counters are red. A counter is taken at random from the bag. Work out the probability that the counter will be a red b notred a Pred) number of successful outcomes Py total number of possible outcomes b P(notred)= 1 -Plred) 10 Modelling A fair 6-sided dice is rolled. Work out the probability of rolling, al b not. 11 Modelling A standard pack of cards is shuffled and a card is chosen at random. Find the probability of choosing a aheart b nota heart. 12. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.88. Work out the probability that it will not rain tomorrow. > a Tals bn The preity te wll F203 oar nine Score i 2 aaa re s [6 Probability | 0.15 | 0.25 | 020 | 0.10 | 0.15 Work out the probability that the dice will land on 6, @ marks) Nov 2011, 02, 2381/6B 311Unit 10 Probability 14 Reasoning Anne hes 2 boxof chocolates nthe box . there re mil pain an white choclaes i the cae ern ere ratio 4:3:2. Anna doesn't like white chocolates. Work out the probability that she will pick a P(not white) chocolate that is not white. 15. Aand Bare two mutually exclusive events, P(A) =0.25 and P(A or 8) = 0.6 Work out the value of P(B) 16 Problem-solving Cand D are two mutually exclusive events. P(D) = 0.4 and PC or D) = 0.78 Work out P(not ©) Q15 hint For two mutually exclusive events, P(A or B) = P(A) + PIB) Mout 312 1 Work out a 50x03 b 200x027 © 210%} d 1504 2 Write the correct sign, < or >, between each pair of fractions. a tand? b Sand © ands ad Sand? 3. Ella dropped a drawing pin on the table lots of times. It landed either point up or point down. She recorded her results in a frequency table. anion an LEST Point up 3 | BY oe Point down 7 a Work out the total frequency. b Work out the experimental probability of the drawing pin landing i pointup ii point down. She drops the drawing pin 100 times. How many times do you expect it to land point up? Discussion When you repeat an experiment, will you get exactly the same results? Why is experimental probability only an estimate? How can you improve the accuracy of the estimate? Ina probability experiment a trial is repeated many times and the outcomes recorded. The relative frequency of an outcome is called the experimental probability frequency of outcome total number of trials Experimental probability of an outcome = Active Carn Homework, practice and support: Higher 10.3Unit 10 Probability ‘Abraham and Betty havea biased dice. —- ‘They each want to find an estimate for the ty probability that the dige wil land on a six. Abraham is going to roll the dice 60 times. He will record the numberof sixes he gets. Betty is going to roll the die 600 times. She will record the number of sixes she gets. Who is more likely to get the beter estimate? Give a reason for your answer, (1 marky March 2012, O4, 2381/68 , Pore Theoretical probability is calculated without doing an experiment. Josh uses this spinner for a game. ‘a What is the theoretical probability that the spinner will land on the letter B? Josh is going to spin this spinner 300 times. b_ Estimate how many times the spinner will land on the letter B. a PC) 6 Simplify fractions where possible. Lily pe b }x300 ———| Expected number of outcomes = number of trials x probability 00 times 5 Modelling Mia makes this &-sided spinner for an experiment. ‘a What is the theoretical probability that the spinner will land on blue? Mia is going to spin this spinner 400 times, b_ Estimate how many times the spinner will land on blue. 6 Modelling There are red, blue and yellow counters in a bag in the ratio of 5:6:1. a What is the probability of choosing a red counter? A counter is picked at random from the bag and then replaced. This is done 180 times, b How many times would you expect a red counter to be picked? 7 The probability of England losing their next football match is 0.28 The probability of England drawing their next football match is 0.36 Work out an estimate for the number of times England will win over their next 50 football matches. ‘As the number of experiments increases, the experimental probability gets closer and closer to the theorectical probability. 313Unit 10 Probability 8 Modelling The table shows the results of Ranga roeAIe Ce ee a Copy and complete the table, calculating il 5 the relative frequency for each outcome. b- What is the experimental probability of a fe rolling a 6? 3 2 © When the dice is rolled 500 times, how many 4 18 times would you expect to get a6? 5 Is the dice far? Give a reason for your answer. 6 9 Modelling The table shows the results of spinning a five-sided spinner. Number i [2 3 [4 [5 Frequency | 46 [39 [37 [40 [38 Is the spinner fair? Give a reason for your answer. | 10 Modelling Holly flips two coins and records the result. She does this 160 times. } One possible outcome is (tail, tail). Estimate the number of times she will get two tals 11 Modelling The probability of winning a prize in a raffle is stg. Sarah says that if she buys | 200 tickets she will win a prize. |s she right? Give a reason for your answer. 12 Modelling Ben rolls two dice 180 times. How many times would you expect to get a total | a oft2 b off that is a prime number? | 13 Modelling A dentist estimates that the probability a patient will come to see him needing a filling is 0.235. Of the next 160 patients who come to see him, 25 needa filing. How good is the dentist's estimate of this probability? Explain your answer. 1 Work out these calculations; give your answers in their simplest form. 7 3,2 a xs bo5xt © 7% d o4x02 © 06x07 fF 055 x08 Pe) ‘A frequency tree shows two or more events and the number of times they occur 314 Active LCaln Homework, practice and support: Higher 10.4Unit 10 Probability 2 Ina football tournament 20 matches were played. In 8 of the matches Team A scored the first goal. In 5 of these matches they also scored the second goal. Team B scored the first two goals in 3 of the matches. Copy and complete the frequency tree for the 20 matches played. ‘st goal 2nd goal Team A Teama_—~8 Team B 2 Team A Team B Team 3 Agarage records the MOT test results on 40 cars. Pass Of the 40 cars tested, 15 of them are less than 5 years old. <5 years 11 of the cars under 5 years old passed. a Eat 28 cars passed altogether. Pass, a Copy and complete the frequency tree. = 5 years b Work out the probability that a car fails its MOT. Fal 4 STEM. 80 people with similar symptoms were tested for a virus using a new trial medical test. 19 of the people tested showed a positive result. The virus only developed in 11 of the people who tested positive. ‘Atotal of 67 people did not develop the virus at all developed virus positive result no virus developed negative ws result no virus 2 Copyand complete the frequency tree. b Work out the probability that a person develops the virus. Two events are independent if one event does not affect the probability of the other. For example, flipping heads with a coin has no effect on rolling an even number with a dice, so they are independent events. To find the probability of two independent events, multiply their probabilities. P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) Connor and Ryan compete against each other over a 100 metre sprint and over a 100 metre swim, The probability that Connor will win the sprint is 03 The probability that Connor will win the swimming is 0.8 Assuming that the two events are independent, work out the probability that Connor will win both races. 315316 Unit 10 Probability 6 Reasoning There are two sets of traffic lights on Matthew's car journey to school. The probability that he has to stop at the first set of traffic lights is 0.45, The probability that he has to stop at the second set of traffic lights is 0.35. Work out the probability that he will & not stop at the first set of traffic lights b_ mot stop at the second set of traffic lights not stop at either set of trafic lights. Discussion What assumption did you make? A card is taken at random from each of two ordinary packs of cards, pack A and pack B. Work out the probability of getting a ablack card from pack A and a black card from pack B a heart from pack & and a spade from pack B a queen from pack A and an even-numbered card from pack B an ace from pack A and an ace of clubs from pack B a queen of hearts from each pack. ee Joe plays a spin-the-wheel game at the fair. The probability that he wins is 3 Calculate the probability that he wins three successive games, eae tree diagram shows two or more events and their probabilities. This fair five-sided spinner is spun twice. 2 Draw tree diagram to show the probabilities. b What is the probability of both spins landing on red? ¢ What is the probability of landing on one red and one blue? a tetepin 2nd spin 3 5 Red a Red BI 2 Bue Write the probability on each 5 branch of the diagram. 3 > 5 Red 5 Bw 2 ‘Blue 5 b PIRR)=2: Go along the branches for Red, Red, The 1st and 2nd spins are independent, so multiply the probabilities © PRB)=2 — ] Blue, Red. reR)=3 Go along the branches for Red, Blue and Blue, PRBorB.R)= 7 The outcomes Red, Blue and Blue, Red are mutually exclusive, so add the probabilities of their outcomes.10 11 wz Unit 10 Probability On a hook-a-duck game at a fundraising event you win a prize if you pick a duck with an its base. Aaron picks @ duck at random, replaces it and then picks another one 8 Copy and complete the tree diagram to 1st game 2nd game show the probabilities. 1 b- What is the probability of a ae i winning two prizes, i Lose on li_ winning nothing iii. winning one prize iv winning at least one prize? 8 pr wh Q9b iv hint Winning’at least one’ Lose means winning one or more. Lose Megan has two bags of counters, labelled A and B. BagA BagB In bag A there are 3 red and 5 green counters. a show the probabilities. b Work out the probability of choosing Red | two counters the same colour oon i one red and one green counter eo ino red counters iv at least one red counter. Discussion How did you calculate P(at least one red)? Is there another way? In bag B there are 1 red and 5 green counters, i) Copy and complete i 20e[) ii 1eC] 100€[]NL]_ | Qtibhint 50¢ A means 50 isan element of A ‘and P{blue) = } and there are half as 1. Design a set of counters so that P(red) = P(green) = many yellow counters as red ones. 2 Problem-solving Two players are playing a card game with these sets of cards. Player A HEBER Player B (2) Sl A) 8 SC) Both players shuffle their cars and turn over the top card. Make up a rule for each player to win so that the game is fai. Use probability to show that the game is fair. eres four-sided spine. = Roe 7 The table shows the probabilities that the spinner will ye land on a or on a3, ‘Number | cae | Probability | 0.2 on ‘The probability that the spinner will land on 2s the same as the probability that the spinner will land on 4. 4 Work out the probability that the spinner will land on 4. (@ marks) Shunya is going to spin the spinner 200 times. b_ Work out an estimate for the number of times the spinner will land on 3 (@ marks) March 2013, Q4, IMAO?2H 333334 Unit 10 Probability 4 Finance The number of FISE 100 company : share prices that went down from the aera ae ay previous day were recorded for 50 days. enc Estimate the probability that on 120 3 the next day Per 5 {41-60 share prices will go down ii more than 60 share prices will go down, 41-60 12 Give your answers as percentages. a 7 bb The London stock exchange trades for 253 days in a year. On how many days 81-100 7 would you expect fewer than 41 share prices to fall? Estimate the probability that fewer 4 communication hint The largest 100 than 41 share prices will fall on each companies on the London stock market are called the FTSE 100, Each day, their share prices can go up, down or stay the same. of two consecutive days. Give your answer as a percentage. ‘There are 17 girls and 14 boys in Mr Taylor’ class. Mr Taylor is going to choose at random 3 children from his class ‘Work out the probability that he will choose exactly 2 girls and | boy. (4 marks) March 2012, 04, 2381/64 (Q5 strategy hint Start by writing down the probability of choosing a gir. Problem-solving Ali has a bag of red, yellow and blue counters in the ratio 2:1:3. Brad has a bag of red, yellow and blue counters in the ratio 4:3:1 Ali and Brad have 12 red counters each. Ali takes a counter out of his bag and puts it into Brad's bag, Brad then takes a counter out of his bag at random, Work out the probability that they both choose a counter of the same colour. Reasoning Tom has a bag with these shapes in. ( © na © A ‘Tom drops the bag and two shapes fall out. 3 Work out the probability that the two shapes are not regular polygons. b Work out the probability that the two shapes have an interior angle sum of 540°. © Work out the probability that the one of the shapes has an interior angle sum of 360° and the other has an interior angle sum of 540°. Reasoning The fair 12-sided dice is rolled and the fair ‘eight-sided spinner is spun. The numbers rolled by the dice are used for the -e-coordinates, and the numbers spun by the spinner are C377 used for the y-coordinates. ~ Find the probability that the point generated by the two numbers lies on each of the following lines. a a2 b xty=9 © yat3 do yekx-110 Fry Unit 10 Probability Problem-solving There is an 85% chance that a battery will last longer than the advertised life of the battery. ‘The batteries are sold in packets of two. A shop has 200 packets of the batteries in stock. Find an estimate for the number of packets that will have exactly one battery that lasts longer than the advertised life of the battery. Reasoning Mike is a stamp collector. The Venn diagram shows information about his stamp collection. iC & = (Mike's full collection of 720 stamps} {stamps from the 20th century} itish stamps} A stamp is chosen at random, é Itis from the 20th century. Work out the probability that itis British Use set notation to describe the shaded area in each Venn diagram. arr s] aay 8 © Asample space diagram shows all the possible outcomes of two events. 1 + Mastery lesson 10.1 ‘Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time, R stery lesson 102 © When two events are mutually exclusive you can add thelr probabilities. The probabilities of an exhaustive set of mutually excusive events sum to. = Mastery lesson 102 For mutually exclusive events, Pinot A) = 1 - P(A) « Mastery lesson 102 © If there are m outcomes for one event and m outcomes for another event, the product rule states that the total number of outcomes for the two events is mn. . Mastery lesson 103 © Expected number of outcomes = number of trials x probability frequency © Relative frequency = ——“SAUENY_ eee ney ~Fotal number of trials © As the number of experiments increases, the experimental probability gets closer and closer to the theorectical probability. Mastery lesson 103 on 103 s+» Mastery le Mastery lesson 10.3 A tree diagram shows two or more events and their probabilities, ..... bastery lesson 104 © Two events are independent if one happening does not affect the probability of the other. . - Mastery lesson 104 335Unit 10 Probability To find the probability of two independent events multiply their probabilities, P(A and B) = P(A) = PIB) ... © The probability for a repeated independent event is the probability multiplied by itself, P(A and A) = P(A) x P(A), P(A and Aand A) P(A) % P(A) » P(A), eC. covsssseccnnnnere © Aconditional probability is when one outcome affects another outcome. P(A. B) means the probability of the intersection of 4 and B. P(A U B) means the probability of the union of Aand B. . so+ Mastery lesson 10.6 © P(AU B) = P(A) + P(B)- PAM B) P(A 1 B |B) means the probability of the intersection of A and Bgiven B. . aes + Mastery lesson 104 Mastery lesson 10.4 jastery lesson 105 «Mastery lesson 10.6 - Mastery lesson 10.6 fastery lesson 10.6 \Wirite down a word that describes how you feel before a maths test. during a maths test after a maths test. Beside each word, draw a face, (3) or (2) to show its 2 good ora bad feeling Discuss with a classmate what you could do to change (3) feelings to (¢5)feetings Hint Here are some possible words: Ok, worried, excited, happy, focused, panicked, calm, Log how you did on your ‘Student Progression Chart. Riki has a packet of flower seeds. ‘The table shows each of the probabilities that a seed taken at random will grow into a flower that is pink or red or blue or yellow. Colour pink [ red | blue | yellow | white Probability | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.16 a Work out the probability that a seed taken at random will grow into a white flower. @ marks) ‘There are 300 seeds in the packet. All the seeds grow into flowers 1b Work out an estimate for the number of red flowers. (@ marks) March 2012, 09, 1380/41 2 Acompany launches a new smartphone. The phone is made in five different colours with three different storage capacities. a How many combinations are there? (2 marks) b One of the phones is pink with 16Gb of memory. What is the probability that this combination is bought? (2 marks) 3. Ina football tournament at group stage there are five football teams ina group, Brazil, England, Scotland, Argentina and France. Each team plays every other team in their group. There are ten matches altogether, Two teams are picked at random to play the first match. Work out the probability that the first game will be played by a European team and a South American team (3 marks) 336 Active Learn Homework practice and support: Higher 10 Unit test10 Unit 10 Probability Problem-solving A and B are two mutually exclusive events. P(A) = 0.35 and P(A or B) = 0.8. Work out P{not B), (2 marks) State whether each pair of events is independent or dependent. a Randomly taking two sweets from a bag. (mark) Spinning a five-sided spinner three times. (mark) Randomly taking a marble from a bag and then taking another one. (mark) Randomly taking a marble from a bag, replacing it, and then taking another one. (mark) ‘Tom plants 3 seeds. ‘The probability tht a sed wil germinate is a Calculate the probability that all 3 seeds will germinate. (2 marks) b Calculate the probability that at least one of the seeds will germinate, G marks) ‘Mareh 2010, OS, 2381/6B ‘There are 11 small jars ona table. ‘Three of the jars contain honey. Eight ofthe jars contain jam. Rosie takes, at random, to of the jars for her breakfast. Work out the probability that she takes atleast one jar of honey. (4 marks) Nov 2010, 05, 2381/68 The Venn diagram shows the numbers of people who chose 3 5 baguettes (B) and soup (5). (4 marks) Use the Venn diagram to ind a P(B) b PIS) ro) 3 A © PENS) d P(BUS) The Venn diagram shows customers’ choice of ‘sausages (S), Ss B bacon (8) and egg (E) fillings for an all-day-breakfast sandwich ina cafe, 2 How many people chose all three fillings? (1 mark) Ww customer is chosen at random. Work out (Za b i PIBNE) (1 mark) PISMBME) (2 marks) iii PISNEIS) (2 marks) £ 2 Problem-solving A class of 27 students is spit between boys and girls inthe ratio of 5:4, Work out the probability that two students chosen at random are both boys. (marks) 33338 Unit 10 Probability Sample student answer 2 What is missing from the tree diagram? b What is missing from the calculations on the right of the tree diagram? © What else is missing from thelr response? Sally has a bag of 9 sweets. In the bag, there are 3 orange flavoured sweets 4 strawberry flavoured sweets and 2 lemon flavoured sweets Sally takes, at random, two of the sweets ‘She eats the sweets. Work out the probability that the two sweets Sally eats are of of the same flavour. (4 marks) Mock paper, 023, IMAO/IH ‘Student answer peewee 9"*8° 72 32.6 a*8" 72 é 2, fd 3 9" 8° 72 6 4 3 2 B 2 © 8 ire 72Stiletto heels can damage wooden floors. The pressure exerted on the floor is worked out force @ Because the stiletto heel reduces the area of shoe in contact with the floor, the pressure on the floor ‘due to the weight of the person increases. This can lead to deep dents being made in the floor surface. Sophie's weight is SOON, She wears flat shoes with an area of 130cm? in contact with the floor stiletto heels with an area of 1.6cm? in contact with the floor, What is the difference in the pressure Sophie applies to the floor in N/cm?? using the equation pressure Numerical fluency 1 3 metres of material cost £1.56 Work out the cost of 5 metres of the same material 2 Connor is paid £54 for 8 hours work in a supermarket. How much is he paid for 10 hours work? 3 An orchestra of 10 people takes 5 minutes to play a song. = How long will it take 20 people? 4 recipe for 6 people uses 750g of mince. How much mince is needed for 16 people? 5 Milk is sold in two sizes of bottle Adcpint bottle of milk costs £0.98, A.G-pint bottle of milk costs £1.44. Which bottle of milks the best value for money? Show all your working. 6 3 men build a wall in 2 days How long will it take a Iman ? b 2men Pa The ratio 1m:1.¢m = 10:1. Copy and complete. a 1kg:ig-[ 1D) 1em:1mm=[]L] Llitre:1ml=[_}-{"] 1 minute:1 second = [7:7] thour:1 minute= [FL] Copy and complete. a 180cm=[]m b 28000em=[Jm © 54600m =[ Thm 1 inches = 1 foot, 3 feet = 1 yard. Use this to work out a 4feet in inches b Syards in feet © 58 inches in feet and inches. 20 fluid ounces = 1 pint, 8 pints Use this to work out a 4pints in fluid ounces b 5 gallons in pints © 20 pints in gallons and pints. gallon 5 miles = 8km, Use this to work out 2 40 miles inkm —4Bkm in miles. 339Unit 11. Multiplicative reasoning 12. Copy and complete. a Whours=[_]minutes b 50 minutes =[_]seconds ¢ 225 minutes =[_] hours [_] minutes Challenge 17 Doyou know on which day of the week ‘you were born? You can use Zellers algorithm to work it out from your date of birth, An algorithm is a sequence of precise instructions to solve a problem. Example 15 May 1999 Let: day number=D —D=15 monthnumber=M — M=5 and year = ¥ ¥=1999 ‘When Mis 1 or2 add 12toM ‘M=5 (no change) and subtract 1 from Y= 1999 (no change} 13 _Jess goes on holiday to New York. The exchange rate of £:US dollars is 1:1.613. ‘a She changes £500 into US dollars. How many US dollars should she get? b After her holiday, Jess changes 80 dollars back into pounds. The exchange rate is the same. How much money should she get? Give your answer to the nearest penny. 14 Copy and complete. tem=[Jmm im=[Jem Let C be the first two erase digits of Y c=19 | im? =[ Jem? 2 and ¥" be the last two | tem? =[_Jmm? yi=99 im =[ Jem? 5 Add together the | integer parts of: Algebraic fluency (26xM-539), 15. Change the subject of each formula tothe (Y'+4and(C+4, T+24+4 | letter given in brackets. then add on D and ¥" a veutat Eo andsubtract2C. +15+99-38=111 b ™ Find the remainder B when this quantity is 111 +7 = 15 remainder 6 c Pee 4) 5 divided by 7. When the { remainder sun, 15 May 1999 was @ | 16 a v=u+at 1 Mon, 2 Tue, ... Saturday Work out the value of v when w= 20, a=10andt=3 b seut+ iat ‘Work out the value of s when u = 10, a=8andt=4 ‘Q17 hint The integer part of a number is the whole-rnumber part, eg. the integer part of { 19.75is 19 340 Active Learn Homework, practice and support: Higher 11.1