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Persistent top-performer Mental models. Urgency and humility versus complacency and inevitability; Business metrics.

Lead and lag, with market is declining and independents are pulling out of adjacent stages à Do not vertically integrate unless absolutely necessary, too
innovation focus; Multi-dimensional strategy. Foot in today and foot in tomorrow (pipeline of future bets); Organizational capabilities. expensive, risky, and difficult to reverse
Focus on challenge, collaboration, and learning Firm Performance Measures Operating profit – no consideration of investment required to deliver that profit ROE – susceptible to how
Strategic Decisions = important in terms of the actions taken, the resources committed, or the precedents set Decision = a choice between expenses are classified, ignores the contribution of debt investors, highly sensitive to the debt-to-equity ratio ROA + removes the
two or more alternatives that involves an irrevocable allocation of resources distorting effect of gearing, commonly used in top-tier journals – susceptible to how expenses are classified, required some adjustments
Outcome = function(decision, chance) Decision quality should be judged on the decision making process (Outcome vs. Process) ROIC + improves in ROA and ROE – suffers some inflationary and accounting distortions Cash Flow return on investment + improves on
Intuition Conditions for intuitive expertise: Stable, linear environment, Numerous learning opportunities, Swift feedback ROIC by reserving inflationary and accounting distortions – Proprietary in its implementation Economic profit + takes account of returns
Competitive Advantage Fades away faster than any time before; half-life is only one year; reimagination is new execution; winners change to debt and equity investors in excess of their cost of capital – dependent on an accurate measure of WACC, which is not easily available
business mix à refresh strategy with data-driven process à high-quality reliable strategic decisions Sustainable economic profit + measures returns in excess of cost of capital on a sustained basis – proprietary in its implementation,
Overconfidence Overprecision causal effects, actionable in strategic decisions, corporate finance capabilities, investment strategies dependent on an accurate measure of WACC Market-based measures + measures shareholder´s actual return in their investment –
Porter Strategy Operational Effectiveness, creation of unique/valuable position, different sets of activities, choosing what not to do. influenced by many factors beyond the manager´s control
Differentiation through choice of activities (basic unit of c.a.)&how they are performed. Efforts to grow risk blurring uniqueness, creating Gap Analysis Desired performance: Stakeholder expectations; Market outlook; Strategic diagnosis, Projected performance: Current
compromises, reducing fit, undermining c.a. Porter Strategic Positioning different activities/ways as competition: variety-, needs-, access- strategy; Strategic diagnosis, Gap: desired minus projected
based Generic Strategies Cost Leadership leader in low-cost production à higher profit margins or lower price for consumer to increase Corporate Strategy About the overall scope of the organisation and how value is added to the constituent businesses, Scope (how broad
market share (new entrants efficient) Differentiation separating product/service from others, focus on value proposition to customer with to make portfolio), Portfolio matrices (which SBUs to invest in) Corporate parenting (how should parent add value)
unique feature (speed, durability, innovation) Cost Focus focus on niche market producing lower cost Differentiation Focus meet Growth Cube Core Business Optimization increase market impact of existing product (increased cross-/-up selling rate, improved pricing
unrecognized needs in niche market Alternative Generic Strategies Product Leadership (Product Differentiation, best product), Customer schemes, increased frequency of use Portfolio expansion new product to increase share in existing market (product variations, extended
Intimacy (Customer responsiveness, best total solution), Operational Excellence (Operational competence, best total cost) value chain coverage via product adoptions/innovation) Customer Segment expansion new positioning of existing product to attract new
5 Forces reveal industry profitability, provide baseline for assessing firm´s strengths and weaknesses, standardize (easier to swtich) (S), segment marketing innovation, application transfer/diffusion) Business Expansion new product for new customer withing current geogr.
expand service (C), invest in diff. products (R), elevate fixed cost (N.E.), offer better value through wider accessibility (S) focuses on drivers Footprint (product/service or business model innovation, entry into new business area) Geographic Expansion exisiting product to exsiting
of industry profitability and explains industry average price/cost Value Chain = set of activities that an organization carries out to create customer in new geography (establishment of local sales&distribution presence, build-up of local production/supply facilities) Geographic
value for customers, focuses on systems, how inputs are changed into outputs Primary Activities Inbound Logistic (receiving, storing, Customer Segment Expansion New positioning of existing product to new customer in new geography (localized marketing strategy,
distributing internally), Operations (transformation activities to change inputs into outputs), Outbound Logistics (deliver product to application transfer/diffusion) Geographic Business Expansion new product new customer new geography (localized product variations,
customer), Marketing&Sales (persuade clients to purchase from you, communicate offer), Service (maintaining value of product to geography-specific product/service/business model innovation BCG Matrix: Stars (high market share, high market growth), Question
customer) Support Activities Procurement (to get resources needed), HRM, Techn. Dev. (manage/process information, protect Marks (low market share, high market growth), Dogs (low market share, low market growth), Cash cows (high market share, low market
knowledge) Infrastructure (support system/functions to maintain daily operations, accounting, admin, legal/general management) à growth)
Create Margin = value created and captured – cost of creating that value focuses on differences in activities and explains relative price/cost Internationalization Drivers Market Drivers similar customer needs ,global customers, transferable marketing Cost Drivers scale
Value System set of inter-organizational links and relationships necessary to create product/service economies, country-specific differences, favorable logistics Competitive Drivers interdependence between countries, competitors global
Mintzberg Strategy pattern in stream of decisions, keep organization going in straight line, resolves big issue à people focus on detail, strategies Government Drivers trade policies, technical standards, host government policies
problem: change 5 P´s (approaches to develop strategy) Plan (deliberate exercise) overall direction, course of action, top-down, adopt Internationalization Strategies Aggregation (R&D to Sales) economies of scale through standardization of regional or global operations
brainstorming options and plan how to deliver them Position particular products in p. markets, fit between organization and environment, Adaptation (Advertising to Sales) books revenue and market share by maximizing firm´s local relevance Arbitrage (Labor to Sales) exploit
outside-in Pattern consistent behavior, emerges from past org. behavior, intended realized(deliberate) unrealized(abandoned) emergent differences between markets by strategic location of parts of the supply chain
strategies Perspective way org. does things, patterns of thinking/how target audience and market place perceive org shape perspective, Red Ocean Compete in existing market, Beat the competition, Differentiation OR low cost, Competitive advantage, Segment existing
inside-out Ploy (deliberate exercise) maneuver to outwit/disrupt competition, threat of being disruptive Strategies Emergent responses customers, Exploit existing demand
to unexpected problems/opportunities from ext. env.. Occur at implementation stage of strategy, take place in absence of intentions, Blue Ocean Create uncontested space, Make competition irrelevant, Differentiation AND low cost, Value innovation, Attract non-
unplanned actions/initiatives in organization, more flexible in adjusting, emerges while working Realized combination of emergent and customers, Create new demand → created from within a Red Ocean when a firm alters the boundaries of an existing industry, rejects the
intentions Intended framed by top management Deliberate previous intentions are realized tenet that a trade-off exists between value and cost (Reduce, Eliminate, Cerate, Raise)
Rumelt Strategy cohesive response to important challenge, coherent set, figuring out how to advance organization´s interests, must Business Model Describes the business logic of an enterprise including the domains of value creation, value configuration, and value
identify challenge and design way to respond Good Diagnosis Defines or explains the challenge, Links facts into patterns, Simplifies the capture What CVP (help customer get job done important to nail precisely), profit formula (value creation for itself), key resources and
complexity of reality, Provides a judgment about the meaning of facts, Often uses a metaphor or analogy, Suggests a domain of action, If processes (assets to deliver CVP à repeat & scale) How determine opportunity to satisfy real customer who needs job done, construct
especially insightful, transforms one’s view of the situation, Serves as a means to evaluate strategy Guiding Policy Overall approach to blueprint on how you will fulfil need at profit, compare to existing to see what needs to change to capture opportunity Components Value
address the diagnosis, Explicitly attends to the challenge in the diagnosis, Channels actions, without being too prescriptive, Not vision, Creation what is offered to what segment? Customer needs and problems: value&benefit, target customer & market segment, value of
goals, or some desired end-state, Draws on sources of advantage, Usually an approach deemed successful in some past situation Coherent other participants Value Capture why does model generate margin? Revenue streams & payments, cost structure and drivers, apportion
Actions Feasible coordinated policies, resource commitments, and actions designed to carry out the guiding policy, To have punch, actions of value between stakeholders Value Configuration Composition and selection of resources and activities, Linkages between system of
should coordinate and build upon one another, focusing organizational energy, Strategic actions that are not coherent are either in conflict activities, Identifies what participants perform what activities
with one another or taken in pursuit of unrelated challenges Bad Fluff gibberish masquerading as strategic concepts/arguments, big The dynamics of disruption The digital business model features: Access to assets, not ownership of assets. Cocreation with
words, illusion of high-level thinking Failure to face the challenge wrong definition of c. à no evaluation/improvement of strategy customers(feedback, data). Always-on and mobile. Capital-light ecosystem business models. It works because: Consumers are now happy
Mistaking goals for strategy statement of desire, no plan of overcoming obstacles Bad strategic objectives fail to address critical to purchase hard goods online. Almost everything can be sold as a service. Excess capacity is a consumer asset Incumbent response:
issues/impractical à execution problems due to confusion between strategy and goal setting Ignore: the classic Christensen trap. Overreact. Make gradual, modest investments
Uncertainty Courtney Clear enough future define single forecast, deterministic r.u. (Traditional) Alternate Futures define limited set of Build internal development a firm undertakes on its own to create value by recombining existing capas or developing new ones internal
possible futures, probabilistic r.u. (Decision Analysis, Use of real options) Range of Futures define range of futures, prob. r.u. (Scenarios, exploratory environment independent space where teams can experiment with new ideas, resources, business models Risk over-reliance
d.a., u.o.r.o.) True Ambiguity can´t forecast future, ambiguous r.u. (Analogies, non-linear dynamic models, u.o.r.o.) Strategic Response on internal growth à slow to acquire new resources needed to survive in fast moving environment Advantages knowledge and learning,
Shaping Aim to drive industry to new structure of their own devising Adapting Take industry as given, react to opportunities Reserving spreading investment over time, no availability constraints, strategic independence, culture management
right-to-play Use real options to put firm in privileged position à best: nor regrets, supplement shaping bets with real options Borrow contract arm´s length agreements to use existing products/services from third parties alliance ongoing collaborative partnerships
Uncertainty Challenges assume that trends continue, underestimate likelihood of outlying events, can´t imagine extreme events where two or more partners agree to commit resources to work together for a period while retaining strategic autonomy (equity and
Strategy Development Process Lafley Frame a choice à Generate possibilities à specify conditions à identify barriers à design tests à nonequity joint ventures, corporate VC investments, franchises) Risk relying too heavily on licenses, contracts, alliances à vulnerable to
conduct tests à make choice Uncertainty: is unavoidable, seldom treated properly, need to know porspects of strategy, should select partner´s shifting priorities Franchising = cloning of successful business concept, franchisees want to see it works before investing,
strategy with best prospects franchisor likely to have to start own outlets before, large initial investment, time to develop concept/achieve first franchise sale
Intergrated Cascade of Choices: What is our winning aspiration? Where will we play? How will we win? What capas mus be in place? What Franchisor Advantage rapidly lock in a market position, Initial fees and ongoing royalty payments, Require less management than
management system are required? company-owned, Franchisees are more motivated, Often have good local market knowledge Disadvantage Dealing with complaints,
Martin Plan vs. Strategy strategy must be coherent & doable: customer is customer, don´t control them, don´t control revenues, planning Misalignment of interests, e.g. quality, Need to monitor and control, Risk of trust breakdown, Challenges in selecting good franchisees
has no coherence: you control costs, are the customer, comfortable à lay out strategy logic clearly, short&simple, accept fear Franchisee Advantage Training and support, Brand name, reputation, image, Lesser and more efficient use of capital, Bulk purchasing and
Who are the firm’s stakeholders? Strategic decisions influenced by stakeholder expectations, (Economic, Regulatory, Technological, negotiating, Marketing and brand development, New product introductions Disadvantage Imposition of controls / methods, Restrictive
Community / society, Internal) Organization ←→ Owners/Shareholders, Financial community, Activist groups, Customers, Managers, contracts, Initial fee and royalty payment risks, Brand damage risk from other franchisees
Unions, Employees, Trade associations, Competitors, Suppliers, Government, Political groups Buy acquisition firm purchases at least a controlling interest in another firm to obtain unfettered use of its resources Risk too many
Principle-Agent Model relationship between asset owner/principle and agent/person contracted to manage asset on owner´s behalf, acquisitions à organizational incoherence and fragmentation Rational to Buy Strategic (extension, consolidation, resource and
problem: knowledge imbalance, monitoring limits, misaligned incentives capabilities) Financial (fin. Efficiency, tax efficiency, asset stripping or unbunding) Managerial (personal ambition, bandwagon effects)
Shareholder vs. Stakeholder governance shareholder owns part of public company through shares of stock, stakeholder has interest in M&A what are they doing vs. what they are going to give à if you see value, others will have seen it too à bidding war (overpayment)
performance for other reasons (greater need for long-term success) Attention: time horizon, risk appetite, return expectations DDP offers a lower-risk way to move a product forward in the face of “what is unknown, uncertain, and not yet obvious to the competition”
Strong board: Long term focus: Strategic clarity – avoid quarter discussions focus on the future, Demonstrated leadership: finance, talent, so that firms can “learn as much as possible as cheaply as possible” while pursuing new ventures. New ventures (less predictable, require
strategy, Characteristics: Devil’s advocate – the devil is in the details, Compliance specialist – procedure is important, Network – provide a different set of planning and control tools). A methodology focused on converting assumptions into knowledge in the quickest and
resources and open doors, Specialist – knowledge about the industry/business, Active – candid, transparent, and thoughtfully ruthless. lowest-cost fashion. Suited to high-potential projects whose prospects are uncertain at the start. DDP core principles address biases to
The obsession with quarterly earnings impedes boards’ ability to plan for the long term improve Innovation ROI Traditional approach to high uncertainty prospects are plagued by biases: High uncertainty initiatives are avoided,
4 justifications to regard the society: Moral – “do the right thing” Sustainability – environmental / community stewardship License to Untested assumptions are taken as facts, Too much funding up front, Little opportunity to redirect when new information was found,
operate – tacit / explicit permission Reputation – strengthen brand / avoidance of damage Senior executives so besotted with the project that they refused to take in disconfirming information; Discovery-driven planning principles
→ But all focus on the tension between business and society, rather than on their interdependence; It can be source of opportunity, help to counter biases: Opportunity portfolio framework, Real options “the right, but not the obligation” - Reverse financials, Explicit
innovation, and competitive advantage: “The most important thing a firm can do for society is contribute to a prosperous economy”: assumption testing Steps No assumption should go untested, Critical assumptions should be revisited several times, Always be reducing
Creates → Expanding demand for business Depends on → Job creation; Wealth and innovation; A productive workforce; Efficient the assumption: knowledge ratio, In high uncertainty contexts, the only way to plan is to plan to learn, At checkpoints assumptions will
utilization of resources; Good government and regulation be revealed to be correct or not, The first competitive response should be put in as a checkpoint too, This approach gives people
Purpose Why do we exist?(100) outward focus, Addresses fundamental need, motivational and unifying; How would the world be permission to learn instead of having them feel obliged to justify differences between what was planned and what the reality is → As the
different if we didn't exist? If we had all the resources we needed, what would we accomplish? What would we do if we weren't afraid plan unfolds, your assumption ranges should narrow or the project should be shut down. DDP Opportunity Portfolio Matrix: Positioning
of failure? Values What do we hold dear?(100) timeless non-negotiable principles, intrinsic value to the people inside the organization, Options à high execution/technology uncertainty low-medium marked/demand uncertainty: small technical tests to learn about
moral compass; What are the non-negotiables?What would never be acceptable to us? Vision do we seek to become(5 -10) Defines what different ways to deliver offering; Adjacencies à medium both: growth opportunities that are adjacent to the core business, requiring
we want to be known for, Presents a vivid description of the desired future, North Star; What business are we in? Who are our target going into new markets and/or deploying new capas; Core Enhancement à low both: projects to improve profitability or growth of core
customers, which of their needs do we strive to meet, with what products and services? What are we good at? What are the competencies business; Stepping stones à high both: test on small market with a defined problem, where customer will pay; Scouting Options à
that will make us stand out as being better than the competitors? What are our future intentions? What is the organization’s aspiration, medium-low execution/techn uncertainty and high market/demand unc. : small, contained market tests which allow you to learn about
or long-term goal? → Important: “The company’s mission and objectives stand apart from, and guide, strategy” what to offer to different markets
Scenarios vivid compelling story about tomorrow, helps make better decisions, range of possible future (no predictions), framework to Options investing principles Fail fast, fail cheap, learn, and move on: All investments to have high upside potential (if you succeed, it will
recognize/adapt to change over/ahead of time à see broader range of possibilities Scenario Development Approach Agree focal question be worthwhile), Investment to determine the potential is relatively small, There is a means to stop making further investments (shut
à Scan horizon for trends/forces à define key forces à develop scenario framework à describe scenarios à evaluate strategies under options down), A portfolio approach to investments (expect many to fail), Funding staged and subject to regular review of investments
scnearios à improve preferred strategy using risk mitigation methods à define signposts/flags to monitor Real Options Investment Convert assumptions into knowledge in the quickest and lowest cost fashion: Define Success à Benchmark à
Industry Structure Monopoly one firm, unique product/service, very high entry barriers, very low 5 forces Oligopoly few competitors, Specify operational assumptions à simulate/analyse sensitivity à plan to learn at key checkpoints
product and service differences varies, high entry barriers, 5 forces varies Perfect Competition many competitors, very similar products Ways to make target company more competitive 1. Smarter provider of growth capital: In less-developed capital markets; consolidate a
or services, low entry barriers, very high 5 forces fragmented industry to achieve economies of scale 2. Better managerial oversight: Provide target with better strategic direction,
Steps Industry Analysis Determine underlying factors/total strength of each force à Assess recent and expected future changes for each organization, and process disciplines 3.Transfer (or share) of valuable skills: Transfer a specific skill, asset, or capability, possibly through
force à Assess the overall industry structure and attractiveness à Determine how to position your business in relation to the five forces deployment of key individuals
Industry Life Cycle Development: Low rivalry, High differentiation, Innovation key, Unknowns: Product risk, Market acceptance, Market McKinsey 7S Structure give people roles, responsibilities, lines of reporting System provide movement and coherence Style leadership
share, Mature market size, Maturity period, Maintenance of market share, rate of eventual decline, Key capabilities: Insight & foresight, styles (collaborative, participative, directive, coercive) Staff people in organization, how they develop Skills how skills are embedded in
Demand creation, Standards setting → Shaping the future Growth: Low rivalry, High growth, weak buyers, low entry barriers, Growth and captured by organization as a whole Superordinate Goals overarching goals/purpose Strategy à emphasizes fit between all elements
ability key Unknowns: Market share, Mature market size, maturity period, maintenance of market share, rate of eventual decline, Key but making everything fit tightly together makes it hard to adapt to specific needs
capabilities: Opportunity identification, Speed, Agility → Adapt the fastest Shake-out: Increasing rivalry, Slower growth, some exits, Planning & Control // Parenting Advantage Portfolio Manager small office, downward, investing and intervening (Financial Control Bus
Managerial and financial strength key Maturity: Strong buyers, Low growth, standard products, higher entry barriers, Market share and set their strategic plans, after negotiation with corporate center, then held strictly accountable for results) Synergy Manager large office,
cost key, Unknowns: Maturity period, Maintenance of market share, rate of eventual decline, Key capabilities: Real options investing → across, facilitating cooperation (Strategic Control more consensual development of strategic plan and moderate levels of BU
reserve the right to play Decline: Extrem rivalry, Typically many exits, price competition, Cost and commitment key, Unknows: Rate of accountability) Parental Developer large office, downward, providing parental capas (Strategic Planning strong planning influence on
eventual decline strategic direction from corporate center with relaxed performance accountability for Bus)
Confirmation Bias Our tendency to look for information that confirms our views and not seek (or disregard or discount) information that Mindshifts for implementing strategy 1. Implementation is twice as difficult as creating strategy 2. Most people are open to change when
contradicts our views communicated right way 3. Take right actions 4. Staff members must know what actions they need to take 5. New strategies are needed
Profit Perspective Costleader with parity Offer the same with lower costàmore profit Costleader with proximity offer at lower priceàless every 2/3 years 6. Review strategy twice/month
Resources what we have Capabilities what/how we do, c.a. arises from capabilities, ways in which (in-tangible) resources are deployed, Strategy top-performance-gap 63% of strategy’s promised value realized: Rarely (<15%) track performance against long-term plans,
needed to survive/thrive, need to be at minimum level to meet customer requirements, ticket to play Distinctive Capabilities required for Dislocated resource allocation – leads to “Venetian blinds” effect, Value is lost in translation, Performance bottlenecks are frequently
c.a. & core competence, provides access to wide variety of markets, makes significant contribution to perceived customer benefits, invisible to top management, Fosters a culture of underperformance Recommendations 1. Keep it simple. Be clear on what will (not) be
difficult for competitors to imitate, need to be VRIO Dynamic Capabilities ability to renew/recreate resources/capas to meet needs of done 2. Challenge assumptions (not forecasts) (High performing companies ensure that the assumptions underlying their long-term plans
changing environments (R&C are imitated over time), can create, extend, modify existing ordinary capabilities: Sensing, Seizing, reflect the real economics of their markets and the performance experience of their company relative to competitors) 3. Speak the same
Reconfiguring (erfassen, ergreifen, umgestalten) language 4. Discuss resource deployments early 5. Identify priorities 6. Continuously monitor performance 7. Develop execution ability
VRIO Valuable: Do resources and capabilities exist that are valued by customers/enable organisation to respond to environmental Strategy Maps leverage intangible assets for sustained value creation, intangible improvements affect financials via chains of casual
opportunities/threats? of value when: Take advantage of opportunities and neutralise threats, Provide value to customers, Are provided relationships, value is potential and depends on alignment with strategy, value arises when assets are combined effectively. Links:
at a cost that still allows an organisation to make an acceptable return Rare: Do resources and capabilities exist that no (or few) Financial, Customer, Internal Processes, Learning & Growth (Objective > Measure > Target > Initiative BSC) Financial Traditional metrics
competitors possess? Rare resources and capabilities are those possessed uniquely by one organisation or only by a few others. (unique of financial value creation Customer Value Proposition for targeted customer, Internal Processes critical few processes expected to have
technology or process, supremely talented people, powerful brand.) Rarity could be temporary (technology/ process get dispersed and greatest impact Learning & Growth Intangible capital required to support internal process
patents expire, key individuals can leave or brands can be de-valued) Inimitable: Are resources and capabilities difficult and costly for OKR (Objective > Key Result include quantifiable targets) OGSM (Objective > Goals > Strategies (covers initiatives) > Measures) MBO
competitors to obtain and imitate? competitors find difficult and costly to imitate, obtain, substitute. Barriers to entry reduce imitability: (management by objective (monitored with measures and quantifiable targets))
Monopoly, Intellectual property rights, First mover advantage, Network effects/user base, Mega investment Organized: Is the SMART (for target and goal setting) Specific, Measurable, Attainable (after weighingspro/cons), Relevant, Timely
organisation appropriately organised to exploit the resources and capabilities? The organization must be suitably organised to support Diamond (Hambrick & Fredrickson) = central, integrated, externally oriented concept of how the business will achieve its objectives:
the valuable, rare and inimitable resources / capabilities that it has Arenas where will be active? Vehicles How will we get there? Differentiators How will we win? Staging What will be our speed and
Sustained C. A. when it has a value-creating strategy that its rivals do not have, It is a s.c.a. when rivals are unable to duplicate the benefits sequence of moves (strategic actions)?
of this strategy, s.c.a. does not refer to the period of calendar time of c.a., does not imply that it will “last forever”, c.a. is sustained if it SAFE Suitable: Does a proposed strategy address the key opportunities and threats an organization faces? Acceptability: Does a proposed
still exists after efforts to duplicate the advantage have ceased, Possibilities for s.c.a. if its rests on distinctive capabilities that are VRIO strategy meet the expectations of stakeholders? Is the level of risk acceptable? Is the likely return acceptable? Will stakeholder reactions
Vertical Intergration The market is too risky and unreliable—it "fails", Companies in adjacent stages of the industry chain have more be positive? Feasibility: Would a proposed strategy work in practice? Can the strategy be financed? Do people and their skills exist or can
market power than companies in your stage, Integration would create or exploit market power by raising barriers to entry or allowing they be obtained? Can the required resources be obtained and integrated? Evaluation: Which of the strategies that are suitable,
price discrimination across customer segments, market is young and the company must forward integrate to develop a market, or the acceptable, and feasible satisfies the best three requirements?

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