Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FRUITS PRODUCTION
INVESTMENT PROPOSAL
PROJECT LOCATION:
OROMIA REGION, EAST WOLLEGA ZONE,
Guto gida WOREDA, lugo Kebele
Finfinne, Ethiopia
MARCH, 2017
Table of Contents
Executive Summary..............................................................................................................................................................3
1. Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................4
2. Background.................................................................................................................................................................5
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 1
2.1 Ethiopia’s Current Economic Situation..............................................................................................................5
2.2 The Agriculture Sector........................................................................................................................................6
2.3 Development and socio-economic objectives.....................................................................................................6
2.4 Income distribution and poverty.........................................................................................................................7
3 Project Objectives and Rationales..............................................................................................................................7
4 The project Area.........................................................................................................................................................8
4.1 Physical Features................................................................................................................................................8
4.1.1 Location and Accessibility.........................................................................................................................8
4.1.2 Drainage.....................................................................................................................................................8
4.1.3 Climate...............................................................................................................................................................8
4.1.4 Soils...................................................................................................................................................................8
4.2 Economic Base....................................................................................................................................................9
4.2.1 Crop Production.................................................................................................................................................9
4.2.2 Livestock............................................................................................................................................................9
4.2.3 Land Use Pattern................................................................................................................................................9
4.2.4 Input Supply and Product Markets....................................................................................................................9
4.3 Infrastructure and Institutions..................................................................................................................................10
5 The Project................................................................................................................................................................10
5.1 Project Description............................................................................................................................................10
5.2 Project Objectives.............................................................................................................................................10
5.3 Types of technology Use..................................................................................................................................10
5.4 Production Capacity..........................................................................................................................................10
5.5 Land Use Plan and Action Plan........................................................................................................................11
6 Market Prospects.......................................................................................................................................................11
6.1 Demands and Main Customers.........................................................................................................................11
7 Organizations and Management...............................................................................................................................12
7.1 Business Form...................................................................................................................................................12
7.2 Organization Structure of the Project...............................................................................................................12
7.3 Manpower Requirement with Qualification.....................................................................................................12
8 Financial Study.........................................................................................................................................................13
8.1 Financial Requirements....................................................................................................................................13
8.1.1 Project Capital Costs................................................................................................................................13
8.1.2 Project Operating Costs...........................................................................................................................16
8.1.3 Project Working Capital..........................................................................................................................17
8.1.4 Total Financial requirements...................................................................................................................17
8.2 Forecasted Production.......................................................................................................................................18
8.3 Forecasted Sales Revenues...............................................................................................................................18
8.4 Depreciation calculations..................................................................................................................................18
8.5 Loan Repayment Schedule and Interest Expense.............................................................................................18
8.6 Forecasted Income Statement...........................................................................................................................19
8.7 Forecasted Cash Flow Statement......................................................................................................................19
8.8 Forecasted Balance Sheet.................................................................................................................................19
8.9 Overall Financial Assessment...........................................................................................................................19
9 Environmental Impact Analysis................................................................................................................................21
10 Conclusion and Recommendation............................................................................................................................22
Annex.................................................................................................................................................................................23
Executive Summary
Project Title: This project may be named as “Biru Gidi Vegetables and Fruits Production Project”.
Project Owner: Mr, Biru Gidi Lemessa
Project Description: The project adopts irrigation production system: starting from its first year of
operation, the promoter is expected to fully develop the land 30 ha with irrigation system.
Project Components:
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 2
The project consists of productions of fruits (40 percent of the land to be covered by oranges,
bananas, papaya, and avocado); vegetables crop production (30 percent of the land to be covered
by pepper and tomatoes); root cops production (26 percent of the land to be covered by onions and
garlic). Most of these crops are high valued products which fetch high foreign exchanges for the
country on one hand and inadequately supplied even in the domestic market on the other hand.
Project Location: The project is located Oromia region, at East Wollega Zone, Guto Gida Woreda,
Lugo kebele. The land size is estimated to be 50 ha.
Project Beneficiaries: The project will benefit those local people both in the form of providing
employment opportunities and modern agricultural technology supplies. The project is expected to
create employment opportunities for more than 23 permanent employees and more than 3,210
casual workers per year. In addition the country as a whole will be benefited from the project as it
is expected to generate substantial foreign currencies through producing exportable commodities at
higher quality.
Project Cost: During its first year of operation, the total project costs is estimated to be Birr
8,193,756.00 consisting of Birr 6,589,342 as project fixed costs, Birr 1,481,527.00 as operating
costs and Birr 1, 228, 88.00 as working capital cost. Please refer to page 17 of this report for
further information.
Source of Fund: The above specified project cost is supposed to be financed as : 70 percent (Birr
5,735,629 on a medium term 10 years bank loan from Development Bank of Ethiopia at 8.5 percent
simple interest rate and the remaining 30 percent ( Birr 2,458,127) to be fully financed by the
project promoter.
Statement of Feasibility: - the project was found to be viable on all aspects of the study.
Recommendation: - considering the viability of the project, as aforementioned, the project is
recommended for implementation.
1. Introduction
Since 1994, Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) has long been the central pillar
of successive national development and poverty reduction plans of Ethiopia. It remains so under the
current Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) of economic policy of Ethiopia. With
implementations of a series of agricultural and rural development polices which are anchored to this
ADLI, the economy of Ethiopia in general and to some extent, the agricultural sector has
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 3
performed well over most of the last decade, although there is still substantial potential to improve
productivity and production in the agriculture sector. Despite the good performance of the
economy, however, the share of agriculture sector in the GDP has been steadily declining owing to
the stronger performance in the service sector. The share of agriculture in GDP has dropped from
fairly above 51 percent in 1999/00 to 41 percent in 2010 whereas the contribution of the service
sector during the same period has changed from 32 percent to 46 percent.
However, the small contribution of GDP by the agriculture sector to the Ethiopian economy is more
valuable than the largest contribution by the service sector mainly due to the following reasons.
Firstly, agriculture has more forward and backward linkages with other sectors of the economy and
hence development in the agriculture sector drives development in the other sectors as per the
concept of ADLI. Secondly, majority of the rural population (fairly above 84 percent) directly or
indirectly make their living from the agriculture sector and hence development in this sector is more
broad-based than the service sector. Finally, GDP contribution originating from the agriculture
sector has more power of poverty reduction than other sectors (a one percent GDP growth rate
originating in agriculture sector has more potential for poverty reduction than two percent GDP
growth rate originating from the service sector).
Recognizing these facts, the Ethiopian government has demonstrated its continued strong
commitment to the agriculture and rural development through the issuance of GTP, the success of
which hinges on the doubling of production and productivity of the agriculture sector. Thus,
although increasing productivity in smallholder agriculture is one of the top priority areas of the
government, greater private sector participation is also encouraged, both in commercial agricultural
production and in marketing, agro-processing and farm input supply chains. The GTP envisages
that some 3.3 million hectare will be developed for extensive commercial agriculture during the
first five years of the Policy and Investment Framework 1 (PIF) period. According to the PIF, around
USD 3-4 billion (which is equivalent to 52.56 to 70.08 billion Birr at the current exchange rate) of
private investment would be required to reach this target. In addition, following the issuance of PIF
and GTP II, there has been a call for shifting from low value land extensive production to high
value and land intensive form of agriculture is made. Accordingly, this Vegetables crop production
project is proposed by visionary emerging domestic investor Mr.Biru Gidi Lemessa.
It is against this background that this project study is being undertaken to assess the profitability of
the project so as to provide the investor and Oromia Investment Commission with a tool to use in
determining the feasibility of enterprises and monitoring its performance. In making this project
feasibility study, the consultant team has devoted a great deal of time in searching and collecting
information on specific aspects of the project. The information was collected by reviewing both
print and electronic documents from research publications (library and on-line reprints and
databases).
1
PIF provides a clear statement of the goal and development objectives of the country in sustained and coordinated manner spanning the next ten
years (as a minimum) which has broad consensus support amongst government, development partners and other stakeholders.
Although the government’s priority attention is still on increasing the productivity and production
by the smallholder farmers, recognizing the high prevalence of rural poverty and the large
productivity gap, due recognition is now given to the private commercial firms in the agriculture
sector. This is reflected in the Policy and Investment Frame work (PIF) objective of the country
which states “to contribute to Ethiopia’s achievement of middle income status by 2020”. The
Development Objective aims to “sustainably increase rural incomes and national food security,
which embodies the concepts of producing more, selling more, nurturing the environment,
eliminating hunger and protecting the vulnerable against shocks. Investments are also directed
towards expanding the extension system, irrigation development, and rural commercialization and
agro-processing. The government is complementing its efforts in food-insecure areas with an
increased commitment to raise national food production by investing in areas with high agricultural
potential, including efforts to attract private agricultural investment in areas with under-utilized land
and water resources.
The owner/promoter: Biru Gidi is the farmer for long period of time. The promoter is a model
farmer and awarded at different times by the officials during the past years. Currently the promoter
is initiated to upgrade and invest on his own land which is under his own possession for many
years.
2.1 Ethiopia’s Current Economic Situation
As a development strategy, Ethiopia has issued Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) in 2002 and has
been implementing it through issuance of a series of congruent economic policies including Sustainable Development
and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (SDPRSP 2002-2005), Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to
End Poverty (PASDEP 2005-2010) and the currently issued the Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II
2015/16-2019/20). Agriculture is the nucleus of all these series of policies. ADLI it is supposed to enhance the
industrialization process of the country as well as to widely diffuse its benefits to the poor due to its backward and
forward linkages. It is expected not only for facilitating industrialization in the Ethiopian context but also for a
development strategy that aims to ensure that the benefits of development are widely shared so that growth is pro-poor.
Following the framework set in ADLI, agriculture used to lead the economy of Ethiopia for the past decade. However,
since 2009 onwards, it seems lost its leading role to the service sector.
As shown by the above chart and the underneath data, the role of service sector in GDP contribution
has been increasing over time whereas the contribution of the industrial sector seems to remain at
around 13 percent while the contribution of agriculture has been steadily declining from fairly
above 51 percent in 1997/98 to just 41 percent in 2009/10.
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2.2The Agriculture Sector
In spite of disproportionately high employment in the sector (fairly above 84 percent of the rural
population) and high poverty reduction power of the sector, the contribution of the agriculture to
GDP of the nation has been declining. Such declining role of the sector is explained mainly by the
small sizes (land holding share of 83 percent by smallholders farming setup less than 2 hectares and
the average size of the small farms is 1.25 hectare) characterized by low utilization of agricultural
inputs, dependence on inconsistent, uneven & unpredictable rains, poor irrigation system, low
technology, little access to know-how (risk management, technology, skill, etc), limited capital,
fragmented plots hampering economic scale production and productivity, that is vulnerable to
natural and man-made changes.
About a third of rural households farm less than 0.5 hectares which, under rain fed agriculture at
current yield levels, cannot produce enough food to meet their requirements. Most agricultural
production is used to meet household consumption needs and, for a very large number of
households, there is a prolonged hunger season during the pre-harvest period. This period is also
characterized by rising in food item prices. When there are surpluses, smallholder farmers are
often constrained by lack of access to markets, and hence sale their outputs at very depressed prices.
Owing to these characteristics of smallholder farmers and the related constraints, crop production
couldn’t keep in pace with the growing demand for such outputs for food and as input for industrial
sector for industrial sector. As a result, Ethiopia has been net importer of cereals and fruit products
despite of decades unreserved government effort to increase the productivity and production of the
smallholder agriculture sector. Hence, food security remains a critical issue for many households,
and for the country as a whole. Moreover, expansion of the cropped area to more marginal lands has
led to severe land degradation in some areas. To fill such growing gap between the supply of crop
products and demand for such items, the government has declared its commitment to increase the
national food production by directing investment in areas with high agricultural potential, including
efforts to attract private agricultural investment in areas with under-utilized land and water
resources.
The development and social objective of the Ethiopia is compressive and consistent. In addition to
the well articulation of these in the Second national plan (GTP II), it is also reflected in the Policy
and Investment Frame work (PIF) objective of the country which states “to contribute to Ethiopia’s
achievement of middle income status by 2020”. The Development Objective aims to “sustainably
increase rural incomes and national food security”. This objective involves the concepts of
producing more, selling more, nurturing the environment, eliminating hunger and protecting the
vulnerable against shocks; all of which are embodied in various national policy instruments, and are
expressed in terms of four main themes, each with its own Strategic Objective summarized as
follows:
Disaster Risk Management and To achieve universal food security and protect vulnerable
Food Security households from natural disasters.
Thus, the objective of this investment project proposal is well anchored to, and aligned with the
national socioeconomic development of the country. The detail project rational and objectives are
explained under section three “rationale and Objectives of the project”.
4.1.2 Drainage
In this district, there are few rivers that continuously drain through the year which are perennial
with catchment area of 696 hectare, namely; Laga Harre, Horo Alalitu and Loko with high volume
and consistent flows. In addition to the above rivers there are some streams which area seasonal and
perennial used for drinking and irrigation and others are flowing permanently to the major rivers of
the environment.
Natural surface drainage facilities are generally excellent to excessive. Excess surface water will
quickly find a natural drainage channel for return to the river. However, such surface wastes could
cause serious erosion problems unless suitable erosion control drop structures of well-grassed
drainage ways are provided. Because of the slope and generally permeable nature of the soil in
association with suitability of natural drains with proper out fall, control of a water table under
irrigation should be easy.
4.1.3 Climate
As the district profiling by the East Wollega Finance and Economic Development Bureau shows,
the district is situated at an altitude above 1350 to 2450 meters above sea level the dominant
climatic condition is a sub tropical type. As a result this area is experienced mean annual
temperature of slightly greater than 150c and mean annual rainfall of 1600 mm to 2000 mm. The
climate of the area is categorized under hot-semi-arid climate.
4.1.4 Soils
As the district profiling by the East Wollega Finance and Economic Development Bureau shows,
the district has different types of soils which are suitable for agriculture. Clay loam is among the
soil types found in the district i.e it covers 16.33% of the total land of the district which has. Sandy
soil covers 55,734.60 hectares of land which is about 23.06% of the total land of the district. The
other soil type exist in the district is loam soil, dominantly found in the district, which good
potentiality for agriculture and covers 42.80 % of the total land of the district.
The dominant economic activity in the district is smallholder agriculture. In the district, there is
neither state farm nor large scale commercial private farms. Agricultural inputs are believed to be
the most important factor to attain food self-sufficiency. Without chemical fertilizer, high yield is
not expected & feeding a family of large size would be impossible.
Agricultural calendar of the district differ according to the weather condition of the districts’ in the
zone. The major crop production season in this district is Mehar. Land preparation extends from
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 8
the month of March to May whereas the appropriate sowing (planting) extends from May to July
and harvesting is between October and January. The Belg season is not suitable for production in
this district. In addition, there are some constraints on the productivity of agriculture even for the
Mehar season. Among these constraints uneven distribution of rain fall from beginning crop
cultivation, crop diseases and soil conservation problem and insect diseases exist.
4.2.2 Livestock
Like in most peasant smallholder societies in the Oromia region, livestock play a key role in day-to-
day life of the Guto Gida woreda society. They provide meat & milk, transport, manure, skin &
hide & furnish regular and easily realizable cash income. But in contrast to the size of the livestock
population, physical and value productivity are low.
Deforestation is highly practiced by the local farmers through which they gain an income by selling
charcoal, firewood and different lumbering materials. The greatest portion of fuel wood
consumption of the capital town is obtained from this district, in which the major area in the district
where fuel wood possibly comes at large to the town is expected from these forests. As a result, the
Natural forest of the district covers merely total area of 2,723.5 hectares of land. However, there has
been promising initiatives to recover some forest areas. Manmade type of forest is planted to solve
the problem of environmental problem such as soil erosion, desertification, deforestation, and etc.
With the aim of satisfying one of the millennium development goals of United Nations the
inhabitants of the district were participated on the planting and protecting the trees. The area
covered by manmade forest in Guto Gidda district is 930 hectare.
The project aims at employing technologies which are environmentally friendly and which can be
effectively utilized by locally existing know-how with the exceptions of some machineries and
equipment which should be imported if there is no domestic source of supply. The project aims at
utilizing locally available technologies so as to encourage the backward and forward linkage of the
project and hence contribute towards the realization of Agricultural Development Led
Industrialization (ADLI) strategy of the country.
For each crop types proposed, the project aims at producing the maximum output per hectare as
proved to be achievable at the research stations. The project promoters aim at utilizing the
technologies and practices as per the recommendations of the expertise so as to produce the
maximum output per hectare. Accordingly, the projected output per hectare for each crop will be
presented under sub-section 9 (projected output per hectare).
As the above table shows, the total farm land is allocated to production of various high valued items
such as: Productions of fruits 40 percent and vegetables 56 percent. The construction plots are
expected to cover only 1 hectares and the remaining land at least 2 percent of the allotted land for
investment as per the Oromia Rural Land use and Administration Proclamation No. 130/ 2007,
which will be 1 hectare).
6 Market Prospects
General Manager
Administration
Horticulturist
Fig.1: Organizational Structure of Biru Gidi Vegetable and fruits crop production
Note that this organizational structure depicts the overall flows of accountability and reporting
structure of the project staffs.
Table 2. Manpower Requirement (with qualifications, number and estimated monthly salaries in
Birr)
S.No Position Quantity Monthly Total Total yearly
Salary Monthly
1 General Manager 1 6000 6000 72,000.00
2 Marketing Manager 1 4500 4500 54,000.00
3 Financial Manger 1 4500 4500 54,000.00
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4 Agronomist 1 3000 3000 36,000.00
5 Horticulturalist 1 3000 3000 36,000.00
6 Tractor Operators 1 4000 4000 48,000.00
7 Secretaries 1 2000 2000 24,000.00
8 Accountants 1 3000 3000 36,000.00
9 Cashiers 1 2500 2500 30,000.00
10 Irrigation experts 1 2500 2500 30,000.00
11 Store keepers 1 2500 2500 30,000.00
12 Purchasers 1 2500 2500 30,000.00
13 Janitors 1 600 600 7,200.00
14 Driver 1 1500 1500 18,000.00
15 Guards 4 600 2400 28,800.00
16 Water pump operator 1 1500 1500 18,000.00
17 Forman 4 600 2400 28,800.00
Total Human Resource 23 44800 48400 580,800.00
Requirement (permanent)
Note that the employees’ salary is expected to increase by a minimum of five per cent each year.
8 Financial Study
In this section, both the cash outflow requirements and the projected inflows are projected and
analyzed.
Construction costs: - these include expenditures related with the constructions of Residential
house, store and bath room, offices, cafeteria etc. The following table shows just the summaries of
the construction items and their respective costs.
Investment on farm machineries and equipments: - The following table shows the specifications
of the selected machineries from the proforma invoices attached to this report.
Table 4. Summaries cost of the project farm machineries (in Birr)
S.N0 Descriptions of the Items quantity Unit costs Total costs
1 New John Deere 6100D Mfwd Tractor (Mexico 1 930,228.64 930,228.64
Origin)
2 Mounted Four Disc Plough (Make: Nardi, Model: 1 160,000.00 160,000.00
QD 70/E)
3 Mounted Tandem Disc Harrow (Make: Nardi, 1 185,725.00 185,725.00
Model: 28 HOP 56)
4 Nardi Mounted Ridge (Model: PT70/5A45R) 1 103,500.00 103,500.00
5 Toyota Land Cruiser 1 960,000.00 960,000.00
6 Trailer 1 312548 312,548.00
7 ISUZU FSR (Japan Origin) 6 cylinder 24 valve 1 1,450,000.00 1,450,000.00
7790cc SOHC
Estimated machineries (in Birr) 4,102,001.64
Farm tools: - In addition to the above mentioned farm machineries, the following farm tools are
also identified with their respective current unit prices. However, as these items are diverse in kind
and in significant in terms of cost per unit, the costs are forecasted based on the current market price
without the need to collect proforma invoices.
Table 5. Farm tools with their respective per unit cost and quantities needed
S.No Items Quantity Units cost Total cost
1 Chemical Sprayer 12 400 4,800.00
2 Sickles 60 60 3,600.00
3 Axes 30 100 3,000.00
4 Rake 20 90 1,800.00
5 Water can 60 60 3,600.00
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6 Tape meter (100 m) 1 450 450.00
7 Wheel borrow 1 3,500 3,500.00
8 Shovel 3 180 540.00
9 Weighing scale 2 30,000 60,000.00
10 Thresher 2 45,000 90,000.00
11 Saw 10 60 600.00
12 Cutlass or Machete 3 40,000 120,000.00
13 Spade hoe 10 900 9,000.00
14 Local hand hoe 20 70 1,400.00
15 Spade 30 98 2,940.00
16 Digging fork 50 400 20,000.00
17 Trovel 4 500 2,000.00
18 Penknife 20 98 1,960.00
19 Pruning knife 20 80 1,600.00
20 Budding knife 20 90 1,800.00
21 Secateurs 10 4,000 40,000.00
= Estimated cost of farm tools (in Birr) 372,590.00
Office Equipments: - The following table shows the prices of office equipments at the time of preparing
this project proposal.
Table 6. Summaries of the office equipments’ costs (in Birr)
S.No Items Unit Units needed Units cost Total cost
1 Desk top Computers N0 1 13,450.00 13,450.00
2 Printers N0 1 8,300.00 8,300.00
3 Shelf N0 2 3,800.00 7,600.00
4 Managerial Chairs N0 2 6,500.00 13,000.00
5 Secretarial Chairs N0 2 1,000.00 2,000.00
6 Guest Chairs N0 10 1200 12,000.00
7 Guest tables N0 1 1200 1,200.00
8 Computer tables N0 1 2,200.00 2,200.00
9 Conference Chairs N0 10 900 9,000.00
10 Conference Tables N0 1 2,000.00 2,000.00
= Estimated cost of Office equipments (in Birr) 70,750.00
8.1.2 Project Operating Costs
Here, the operating costs refer to these costs which are not included in the project capital costs and
hence are not subjected to periodical depreciation. These costs include such costs as labor costs;
costs for equipment operations and maintenance such as fuel cost and repair and maintenance costs;
depreciation costs; utilities expenses such as water bills, electricity bills and telephone charges;
employees salaries; and others miscellaneous expenses.
Labor costs: - In order to determine the periodical labor cost of the project, first we need to
determine labor required to cultivate a hectare of each crop in each project year. Accordingly, the
following are our procedure to determine the labor requirement of the project:
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 15
1. First, we started from our land use and cropping pattern proposd throughout the life of the
project as depicted by table 1 land use plan of 50 hectares specified above.
2. Second, we have determined the labor requirements of each crop per hectare per year by the
types of operations throughout the project life as shown by table 7 (annexed). Labor
requirement is expressed in terms of work-day, which is to mean the time devoted by one
person during one day (usually eight hours).
3. Thrid, we have determine the total labor requirement of each crop per year by multiplying the
labor requirement of per hectares by their corresponding total hectares of land planned to plant
each crop (table one). This is represented by table 7 (annexed).
4. Fourth, we have summed the total labor requirement of each crop in each year so as to
determine the annual total labor requirement of the project.
5. Finally, the average wage per day of labor is multiplied by the total labor requirement of the
project for each year. We have taken Birr 50.00 as the average wage per day per worker
applicable to the project location. The average wage per work-day is projected to increase by
minimum of 5 percent each year. This is determined by considering the change in the labor
markete price over the past few years.
Supplies costs: - such costs include costs for technological inputs such as fuel cost for the tractors,
fertilizers, seeds, office supplies and other chemicals. Table 9 & 10 (annexed) shows the detailed
calculations of these cost items, the summary of which is Birr 201,640.00 annual supplies cost. As
usual, we expect these cost items to increase by a minimum of 5 per cent per year. This is presented
by table 12 (annexed).
Repair and maintenance costs: - Operating costs for operations and maintenance of machineries
and equipment is taken to be 2 percent of the initial investment costs starting from its second year
after acquisition until it’s the end of tenth year, after which the rate would be 10 percent.
Accordingly, table 8 (annexed) shows the detailed calculation of this cost item which is summarized
to be Birr 131,786.83 starting from the second year of the project operation to tenth year. This is
presented by table 13 (annexed).
Utilities expenses: - these include such periodical costs as incurrence of liabilities (payments of
cash) for water bills, electricity bills, fuel consumptions and telephone expanses. Although such
types of expenses are changing with the volumes of operations, it is forecasted that a minimum of
Birr 250,000.00 forecasted for the first year of project operation, which is expected to increase by a
minimum of 5 percent per year. This is presented by table 14 (annexed).
Miscellaneous Expense: - are other operating expense for which it is neither economical nor
convenient to give specific account code and hence should be merged together under
“miscellaneous expense” includes entertainment expense, employee benefits, litigation expense and
others. Similar to the utilities expense, such expense are estimated to be Birr 292,287.00 for the first
year and expected to increase at least by 5 percent per year. This is presented by table 14 (annexed).
Note that the projections are based on the expert opinions in the field as well as per the
recommendations of east Wollega zone agriculture office. In essence, if the project is to be
implemented and run in accordance with the recommendations of the experts, these projections are
supposed to be achievable. Here, it is expected that as the project operates for more number of
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 17
years, there is advantage of getting lessons from the past years and hence the latter years’ output per
year is expected to increase accordingly.
Net Present Value (NPV):- is the sum of present values of all the cash flow both positive and
negative that are expected to occur over the life of the project. The formal selection criterion for the
NPV measure of project worth is to accept all independent projects with a positive NPV when
discounted at the opportunity cost of capital. In this project case, given the project has positive
value of Birr 276,018,768.21; it means that the project would contribute Birr 276,018,768.21
towards the wealth maximization of the owner’s wealth and hence it is viable.
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR):- The benefit-cost ratio is defined as the ratio of the discounted values of
benefits to the discounted value of costs. A ratio of at least one is required for acceptability and the
ratio of one indicates that the NPV of zero at a particular discount rate. In our case BCR of Birr
2.36 shows, for every one Birr invested in this project, the return would be 2.36 Birr, which is
highly remarkable figure.
Net Benefit Cost Ratio (NBCR):- this ratio is defined as the ratio of net present value to the present
value of cost. A ratio greater than zero (0) is needed for the project to be financially acceptable; in
our case the ratio of 1.36 is in excess of the hurdle rate required to make the project financially
viable (the project is magnificent in terms of this criteria also).
Internal Rate of Return (IRR):- is the maximum interest that a project could pay for the resources
used if the project is to recover its investment and operating costs and still break even. It measures
opportunity cost of capital tied up in the investment. In this project case, IRR is 52 percent which is
recommendable with the minimum cost of capital of 8.5 per cent. Hence, we can safely conclude
that the IRR of the project is extraordinary high and hence indicates project viability.
It should be recalled that the various investment decision criterion we have considered above
involve predicting values for each of the various elements entering into the definition of volume of
output sold, selling price, required investment, labor costs per unit; maintenance costs of machines,
profit, and so forth. However, as these values are based on certain assumptions, they may change in
unfavorable direction thereby making projects less attractive than when it was planned. Thus,
switching value measures the value an element of a project would have to reach as a result of a
change in an unfavorable direction before that project no longer meets the minimum level of
acceptability as indicated by one of the measures of project worth. In this case we ask, by how
much an element would have to change in an unfavorable direction before the project would no
longer meet the minimum level of acceptability as indicated by one of the measures of project
worth. In other words, in sensitivity analysis, we ask how sensitive is the project’s estimated
financial and economic benefits to increase in costs, fall in price and extension of implementation
periods?
In our case, since BCR is 2.36, it means that cost can rise by 36 percent at which the BCR will
become exactly 2.0 and hence the decision will be indifference. However, any rise in cost beyond
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 20
36 percent keeping sales revenues constant will lead the BCR to be below 2.0 and hence the
decision will be to reject the project on this ground. But, it is unlikely to expect such increase in
operating costs keeping selling prices of these products constant. Thus, the 83 percent margin of
safety is large enough to guarantee for the stability of the above decision criteria.
which is roughly equals to 57 percent, keeping the cost elements constant. Any drop in sales by
more than 57 percent may lead the project to rejection region. However, given the past few year
trends, the price of these items have been increasing at increasing rate and hence expected to
increase over the next many years partly due to increasing demand to these outputs and partly due
to increasing general trend in commodity prices. Overall, when evaluated both in terms of cost and
revenue, the project has sufficient margin of safety to guarantee the stability of the determined
investment decision criteria above. Thus, it is can be safely concluded that the project is financially
viable.
Planting 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Weeding (2X) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Harvesting 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
Planting 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Weeding (2X) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Harvesting (2X) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
Planting 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Weeding (2X) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Harvesting (2X) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
Planting 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Weeding (2X) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Harvesting (2X) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
Planting 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Weeding (2X) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Harvesting (2X) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Total 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68
Planting 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Weeding (2X) 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Harvesting (2X) 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
Total 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
Onion Land clearing & preparation 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Planting 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Weeding (2X) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68
Garlic Land clearing & preparation 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Planting 6 6 6 10 6 6 6 6 6 6
Weeding (2X) 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Harvesting 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Total 74 69 69 73 69 69 69 69 69 69
Note that the labor requirement is determined by assuming twice production per year for vegetables with irrigation
Labor requirement is expressed in terms of work-day, which is to mean the time devoted by one person during one day (usually eight hours).
Table 8. Estimated yearly repair and maintenance expenses Repair and maintenance
Items costs Rate Value
1 Residential houses construction (for workers) 250,000.00 0.02 5,000.00
2 Office & cafeteria construction 150,000.00 0.02 3,000.00
3 Water Pump, 600,000.00 0.02 12,000.00
4 Generator 94,000.00 0.02 1,880.00
5 Store and bathing room 950,000.00 0.02 19,000.00
6 New John Deere 6100D Mfwd Tractor (Mexico Origin) 930,229 0.02 18,604.57
7 Mounted Four Disc Plough (Make: Nardi, Model: QD 70/E) 160,000 0.02 3,200.00
8 Mounted Tandem Disc Harrow (Make: Nardi, Model: 28 HOP 56) 185,725 0.02 3,714.50
9 Nardi Mounted Ridge (Model: PT70/5A45R) 103,500 0.02 2,070.00
10 Toyota Land Cruiser 960,000 0.02 19,200.00
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 25
11 Trailer 312,548 0.02 6,250.96
12 ISUZU FSR (Japan Origin) 6 cylinder 24 valve 7790cc SOHC 1,450,000 0.02 29,000.00
13 Chemical Sprayer 4,800.00 0.02 96
14 Sickles 3,600.00 0.02 72
15 Axes 3,000.00 0.02 60
16 Rake 1,800.00 0.02 36
17 Water can 3,600.00 0.02 72
18 Tape meter (100 m) 450.00 0.02 9
19 Wheel borrow 3,500.00 0.02 70
20 Shovel 540.00 0.02 10.8
21 Weighing scale 60,000.00 0.02 1200
22 Thresher 90,000.00 0.02 1800
23 Saw 600.00 0.02 12
24 Cutlass or Machete 120,000.00 0.02 2400
25 Spade hoe 9,000.00 0.02 180
26 Local hand hoe 1,400.00 0.02 28
27 Spade 2,940.00 0.02 58.8
28 Digging fork 20,000.00 0.02 400
29 Trovel 2,000.00 0.02 40
30 Penknife 1,960.00 0.02 39.2
31 Pruning knife 1,600.00 0.02 32
32 Budding knife 1,800.00 0.02 36
33 Secateurs 40,000.00 0.02 800
34 Desktop Computer 13,450.00 0.02 269
35 Printers 8,300.00 0.02 166
36 Shelf 7,600.00 0.02 152
37 Managerial Chairs 13,000.00 0.02 260
38 Secretarial Chairs 2,000.00 0.02 40
39 Guest Chairs 12,000.00 0.02 240
40 Guest tables 1,200.00 0.02 24
41 Computer tables 2,200.00 0.02 44
42 Conference Chairs 9,000.00 0.02 180
43 Conference Tables 2,000.00 0.02 40
Total Repair and Maintenance costs 131,786.83
Table 17. Forecasted production of each crop over the first 10 years
Table 15. Operating and working capital costs needed
Crops 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oranges Land area in Ha 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Employee salaries 580,800 609,840 640,332 672,349 705,966 741,264 778,328 817,244 858,106 901,011
Output per Ha (quint) 0 0 0 25 120 130 130 130 130 130
Labor cost (table 10) 158,650 165,533 173,809 183,426 191,625 201,206 211,266 221,829 232,921 244,567
Total Output (quint) 0 0 0 125 600 650 650 650 650 650
Repair & maint. (table 13) 0.0 131786.8 138376.2 145295.0 152559.7 160187.7 168197.1 176607.0 185437.3 194709.2
Bananas Land area in Ha 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Utilities costs (table 14) 250,000 262,500 275,625 289,406 303,877 319,070 335,024 351,775 369,364 387,832
Output per Ha (quint) 10 50 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Supplies cost (table 12) 201,640 211,722 222,308 233,424 245,095 257,349 270,217 283,728 297,914 312,810
Total Output (quint) 50 250 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750
Miscellaneous cost (table 290,437 304,959 320,207 336,217 353,028 370,679 389,213 408,674 429,107 450,563
Papaya Land area in Ha 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
14)
Total OperatingOutput per Ha (quint)
1,481,527 0
1,686,340 01,770,657 1501,860,116200 1,952,149
250 2,049,757
250 250
2,152,245 250
2,259,857 250
2,372,850 250
2,491,492
Total Output
Increase in Operating costs (quint) 0 0204,813 0 84,317 750 89,459
1000 1250
92,033 1250
97,607 1250
102,488 1250
107,612 1250
112,993 1250
118,642
Avocado Land
Working capital area in Ha 122,888
needed 5 50,590 5 53,675 5 55,220 5 58,5645 5
61,493 5
64,567 5
67,796 5
71,185 5 0
Output per Ha (quint) 0 0 25 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
Total Output (quint) 0 0 125 375 375 375 375 375 375 375
Pepper Land area in Ha 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Output per Ha (quint) 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Table 18. Projected selling price of (at the farm gate price in Birr per quintal)
Crops Total Output
1 (quint)2 753 80 4 85 5 85 90
6 95 7 100 8 105 110
9 11510
Tomatoes
Oranges Land area
800in Ha 840 10
882 10
926.10 10 972.41 10 10
1021.03 10
1072.08 10
1125.68 10 10
1181.96 10
1241.06
Bananas Output 700 735
per Ha (quint) 771.75
150 810.34
200 200850.85 200 893.40200 938.07
200 984.97 200 1034.22
200 200 1085.93
200
Papaya Total Output
600 (quint)
630 661.5
1,500 694.58 2,000
2,000 729.30 2,000 765.77
2,000 804.06
2,000 844.26 2,000
2,000 886.47
2,000 930.80
2,000
Avocado
Onions 600
Land area in Ha 630 661.5
9 694.58
9 9 729.30 9 765.779 804.06
9 9844.26 9 886.47
9 930.80
9
Output per Ha (quint)
@ Biru Gidi 200 250 crops production
vegetable & Fruit 300 investment
350 proposal 350 350 350 28 350 350 350
Total Output (quint) 1,800 2,250 2,700 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150
Garlic Land area in Ha 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Output per Ha (quint) 100 150 160 170 170 170 170 170 170 170
Total Output (quint) 400 600 640 680 680 680 680 680 680 680
Pepper 2800 2940 3087 3241.35 3403.42 3573.59 3752.27 3939.88 4136.88 4343.72
Tomatoes 300 315 330.75 347.29 364.65 382.88 402.03 422.13 443.24 465.40
Onion 600 630 661.5 694.58 729.30 765.77 804.06 844.26 886.47 930.80
Garlic 3000 3150 3307.5 3472.88 3646.52 3828.84 4020.29 4221.30 4432.37 4653.98
Table 19 Projected annual Sales revenues from each Crop (at the farm gate price in Birr)
Crops 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oranges Price (Birr) 800 840 882 926 972 1021 1072 1126 1182 1241
Production (quint) 0 0 0 125 600 650 650 650 650 650
Sales (Birr) 0 0 0 115763 583443 663666 696850 731692 768277 806691
Bananas Price (Birr) 700 735 772 810 851 893 938 985 1034 1086
Production (quint) 50 250 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750
Sales (Birr) 35000 183750 578813 607753 638141 670048 703550 738728 775664 814447
Papaya Price (Birr) 600 630 662 695 729 766 804 844 886 931
Production (quint) 0 0 750 1000 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250
Sales (Birr) 0 0 496125 694575 911630 957211 1005072 1055325 1108092 1163496
Avocado Price (Birr) 600 630 662 695 729 766 804 844 886 931
Production (quint) 0 0 125 375 375 375 375 375 375 375
Sales (Birr) 0 0 82688 260466 273489 287163 301522 316598 332427 349049
Pepper Price (Birr) 2800 2940 3087 3241 3403 3574 3752 3940 4137 4344
Production (quint) 75 80 85 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
Table 20. Estimation of annual depreciation expenses Economic Life Depreciation rate Depreciation expenses
Items costs
Residential houses construction (for workers) 250,000.00 40 0.025 6250.00
Office & cafeteria construction 150,000.00 40 0.025 3750.00
Water Pump 600,000.00 40 0.025 15000.00
Generator 94,000.00 40 0.025 2,350.00 51,100.00
Store and bathing room 950,000.00 40 0.025 23,750.00
New John Deere 6100D Mfwd Tractor (Mexico Origin) 930,229 7 0.142857 132,889.67 385,307.33
Mounted Four Disc Plough (Make: Nardi, Model: QD 70/E) 160,000 7 0.142857 22,857.12
Mounted Tandem Disc Harrow (Make: Nardi, Model: 28 HOP 56) 185,725 7 0.142857 26,532.12 334,207.33
Nardi Mounted Ridge (Model: PT70/5A45R) 103,500 7 0.142857 14,785.70
Toyota Land Cruiser 960,000 7 0.142857 137,142.72
Trailer 312,548 7 0.142857 44,649.67
ISUZU FSR (Japan Origin) 6 cylinder 24 valve 7790cc SOHC 1,450,000 5 0.2 290000
Chemical Sprayer 4,800.00 5 0.2 960
Sickles 3,600.00 5 0.2 720
Axes 3,000.00 5 0.2 600
Rake 1,800.00 5 0.2 360
Water can 3,600.00 5 0.2 720
Tape meter (100 m) 450.00 5 0.2 90
Wheel borrow 3,500.00 5 0.2 700
Shovel 540.00 5 0.2 108
Weighing scale 60,000.00 5 0.2 12000
Thresher 90,000.00 5 0.2 18000 356,518.00
Saw 600.00 5 0.2 120
Cutlass or Machete 120,000.00 5 0.2 24000
@ Biru Gidi vegetable & Fruit crops production investment proposal 30
Spade hoe 9,000.00 5 0.2 1800
Local hand hoe 1,400.00 5 0.2 280
Spade 2,940.00 5 0.2 588
Digging fork 20,000.00 5 0.2 4000 378,668.00
Trovel 2,000.00 5 0.2 400
Penknife 1,960.00 5 0.2 392
Pruning knife 1,600.00 5 0.2 320
Budding knife 1,800.00 5 0.2 360
Secateurs 40,000.00 5 0.2 8000
Desktop Computer 13,450.00 5 0.2 2690
Printers 8,300.00 5 0.2 1660
Shelf 7,600.00 5 0.2 1520
Managerial Chairs 13,000.00 5 0.2 2600
Secretarial Chairs 2,000.00 5 0.2 400 22,150.00
Guest Chairs 12,000.00 5 0.2 2400
Guest tables 1,200.00 5 0.2 240
Computer tables 2,200.00 5 0.2 440
Conference Chairs 9,000.00 5 0.2 1800
Conference Tables 2,000.00 5 0.2 400
Total yearly depreciation 763,975.33
Assets
Current asset
Cash (cumulated) 516,873 1,697,241 3,989,174 7,100,687 10,893,358 14,857,824 19,099,204 23,530,031 28,264,037 33,390,141
working capital (cumulated) 122,888 173,478 227,153 282,374 340,938 402,431 466,998 534,794 605,979 605,979
Total current assets 639,761 1,870,720 4,216,327 7,383,060 11,234,296 15,260,255 19,566,202 24,064,825 28,870,016 33,996,120
Fixed asset
Project construction costs 2,044,000 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461 16,333,461
Projected accu. depren (408,337) (816,673) (1,225,010) (1,633,346) (2,041,683) (2,450,019) (2,858,356) (3,266,692) (3,675,029) (4,083,365)
Projected farm machine cost 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003 6,009,003
Projected accu. depren (588,415) (1,176,831) (1,765,246) (2,353,661) (2,942,076) (3,530,492) (4,118,907) (4,118,907) (4,118,907) (4,118,907)
projected farm tools cost 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590 372,590
Projected accu. depren (326,558) (653,116) (979,674) (1,306,232) (1,632,790) (1,632,790) (1,632,790) (1,632,790) (1,632,790) (1,632,790)
projected office equipments 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350 254,350
Projected accu. depren (50,870) (101,740) (152,610) (203,480) (254,350) (254,350) (254,350) (254,350) (254,350) (254,350)
Total fixed assets 7,305,763 20,221,044 18,846,864 17,472,685 16,098,505 15,101,753 14,105,001 13,696,665 13,288,328 12,879,992
Total assets 7,945,524 22,091,764 23,063,191 24,855,745 27,332,801 30,362,008 33,671,203 37,761,490 42,158,344 46,876,112
Liability
Bank Loan 5,162,067 4,588,504 4,014,941 3,441,378 2,867,815 2,294,252 1,720,689 1,147,126 573,563 -