OCT 10

PM'S China Visit

Positive movement in Kashmir Issue.

Arbitrary change of status of Kashmir, useful both for Pakistan and China.

Worthy of Emulation works: Education, before communist party 15 to 20 pc now

over 90 pc. Poverty: 850 million people out of it. Brought an element of multi
polarity to world to prevent US becoming a global hegemon.Khan’s visit to Beijing
marks his third to the Chinese capital in a year. The Pakistani leader is meeting
not only Xi and Premier Li Keqiang but also several top business leaders as he
seeks to shore up his country’s finances. Khan’s visit to Beijing will be closely
watched in New Delhi, with Indian officials mindful of China’s recent agreement
to send its cutting-edge J-16 fighter jets to train Pakistan’s air forces. India was
also miffed this month when it was refused permission to celebrate Mahatma
Gandhi’s birth anniversary at a public park in Beijing. China has its frustrations
with India, too, from recent Indian military exercises along its borders to the
upgrading of the U.S.-Japan-Australia-India “Quad” alliance to a ministerial level.

Belt and Road Initiative

Dragon awaken https://dailytimes.com.pk/483667/dragon-awaken/

Napoleon once said to an English official in St. Helena that “When China wakes
up, the World will shake”. Sleeping Dragon as it is rightly known, China has
incorrectly been understood as the one sleeping. If at all it was sleeping, it is now
surely pandiculating stretching its arms from Africa to Europe. Incredible changes
in its growing economy, share of global developments in technology, science,
education, agriculture and unprecedented spread of influence around the world
all together indicate that the beast is awake and conscious.

During the last decade, China has started and completed huge projects on an
unprecedented rate in a very short period of time. It has developed huge
infrastructure projects across the length and breadth of our globe. China has
invested on strategically vital anchorages, transit corridors and ensuring presence
of Chinese companies wherever an economic opportunity was observed. Despite
its investment scattered all around the world, China it is keeping focus on Asia,
being its home-continent. While United States is still in control of the region and
selling weapons world over, probably due to political bindings, economic
conditions and foreign policy dictations by United States, countries do not feel
like trading with United States. Countries like Pakistan which previously looked
towards F-16s sealed in the bone yards of Tucson in Arizona, have now happily
switched towards China which is offering better and less costly alternatives.
Although United States’ military competencies still dictate countries and
governments in Asia, but China has also started to exercise growing economic
leverage to exert its self in the region. It is doing so aggressively yet persuasively
even attracting longtime American allies like Indonesia and Philippines.

Every country in the world and particularly those in Asia now trade more openly
with China while United States feels its growth being outperformed. This
insecurity on behalf of United States frequently manifestsin form of over issues
related to Chinese companies e.g. Huawei. Belt and Road Initiative estimated
between five to eight trillion US dollars has given more relevance to China. With
about 152 countries sharing the stakes in BRI, several other countries, big and
small, are trying to get attached with Chinese BRI opportunity. Even BRI suits
Russians as Vladimir Putin sees this project perfectly aligned with the goals of
Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. It seems that any resistance, for instance
like that of the “The Quad” i.e. anti- Chinese alliance that includes India, Australia
and United States seem not to be working at all.

China is continuously exerting its soft power. President Xi’s is now exploring India
willingness and eagerness to reap benefits of CPEC. His visit to India was long due
since President Xi cannot ignore not only a huge market in neighborhood but also
cannot disregard the beautiful length of “Golden Quadrilateral” (Sagar Maala)
perfectly aligned with the CPEC route running almost parallel on other side of
fence. Even a blind can see that India has deliberately left a protruding length of
this expressway stretched towards Wagah-Atari border in case Pakistan and China
decide one day agree to connect CPEC length with Sagar Maala. China is also
interested in Nepal and has already shared a plan to stretch a road from Nepal to
Tibet. While Srilanka’s Hambatota is fully controlled by Chinese, India is virtually
surrounded by Chinese BRI and CPEC presence. Iran is already on board and
despite sanctions by United States China has been purchasing oil from Iran. Now
China seems interested in developing Chabahar port as well to support logistic
operations at Gawadar and also as alternative port.

In nutshell, China is seriously perusing its economic goals and bringing countries
in region to share takes in its promising projects. China is promising a good
economic future in the region

China has also marked its significant presence in Afghanistan. It has not sneaked
through the narrow passage of Wakhan corridor rather it has flooded Afghanistan
through its companies encouraging Chinese companies to invest in Afghanistan.
To stop this Chinese onslaught, these companies were even alleged for playing a
generous role in aiding the Taliban, which China strongly rejected. However, these
accusations made by India could not harm Chinese presence in Afghanistan. With
the passage of time China did establish that it had gained trust with Afghans
particularly Talibans. Actually China had begun its contact with the Taliban shortly
after the nationalist violence in its Xinjiang autonomous region surged in 1998.
China saw this as a major threat and suspected the terrorist camps in Afghanistan
responsible to fueling the insurgency by Uighurs. Having reached an
understanding with Taliban meant that China was successful in securing its own
security and economic interests. Pakistan by virtue of its strategic partnership
with China and leverages over Taliban, probably played its positive role. Since
Pakistan also considered extremist elements such as Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan, East Turkistan Islamic Movement and ISIS a potent threat to CPEC
overtures, thus it was important to mitigate the threat. On the other hand Taliban
found Chinese supporting them on diplomatic fronts. At this time of the US-
Taliban negotiation course, China is seen receiving Taliban delegations in Beijing
and playing role of a mediator to bring both Taliban and United States on dialogue
table once again. In one way, China is favoring United States since it agrees to US-
Taliban deal as a decent framework for the peaceful solution of the Afghan issue.

In nutshell, China is seriously perusing its economic goals and bringing countries
in region to share takes in its promising projects. China is promising a good
economic future in the region. Pakistan is one of the main beneficiaries of
President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative and CPEC is definitely a game changer for
Pakistan. It would be wise for Pakistan to view CPEC and Chinese other economic
initiatives in the region as opportunities to propel Pakistan economy. It needs to
be understood that CPEC is not a threat but in order to benefit from the
promising economic prospects, lot of seriousness would be required from
Pakistan to harvest the benefits from this historic partnership with China.

Between Wuhan and Chennai

Jawed Naqvi | October 15, 2019

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

THE Chinese are inscrutable in the nuanced practice of diplomacy, and utterly
ferocious when their core interests are challenged, a potent blend of Marx and
Confucius. The Dalai Lama, Taiwan, the Spratly Islands are non-negotiable and
evidently Ladakh too. They plan decades in advance and are mostly brilliant in
anticipating the rival’s responses.

The Chinese can send a message in a subtle way, but can be absolutely rude if
needed. That’s what they did with Nehru who they had begun to see as a
collaborator with their imperialist bête noires, precisely choosing to strike at a
time when the world was riveted to the Cuban missile crisis. There was no time
for the Soviets or the Americans to respond to the short but bloody incursion.

The fact that Modi was filmed picking up rubbish from the beach at the temple
town of Mahabalipuram spoke also of the lack of preparation in detail that usually
goes with highlevel visits. Be that as it may, the ‘Wuhan Spirit’ assumed the avatar
of ‘Chennai Connect’. Wuhan was where Mao performed the famous swimming
feat, and it was where Xi won his communist epaulets as a formidable leader.

CPEC
Introduction
CPEC is the first major economic venture in Pakistan and China’s “all-weather”
friendship, which for decades was focused on defense and strategic ties.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a development programme to connect

Gwadar Port in southern Pakistan to China’s north-western region of Xinjiang via
highways, railways and pipelines to transport oil and gas. Economic corridor is not
only the road to economic prosperity for Pakistan, it can also be termed as future
of the world. It is estimated that about 3 billion people from China, South Asia
and Central Asia, would benefit from the economic corridor. The project has the
potential to empower half of the world’s population living in Asia. This is probably
the most important agreement signed between Pakistan and China till now and it
will expand the depth and breadth of our bilateral strategic relations.

What is a Corridor?

Economic corridors are integrated networks of infrastructure within a

geographical area designed to stimulate economic development. Corridors may
be created to link manufacturing hubs, areas with high supply and demand, and
manufacturers of value-added goods. When implemented, the economic
corridors are often one of a package of different measures including
infrastructure development, visa and transport agreements and standardization.

Geography of Pak-China Economic Corridor

The corridor is about 533 km from Karachi and 120 km from the Iranian border
and 380 km northeast of the nearest point in Oman across the Arabian Sea.
Gwadar Port is located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, just outside the Strait of
Hormuz, near the key shipping routes in and out of the Persian Gulf. It is situated
on the eastern bay of a natural hammerhead-shaped Peninsula protruding into
the Arabian Sea from the coastline.

Project Details
This 107-km long track will be built with 50 bridges over beautiful lakes and
tunnels across different mountains. By this project, 5 million commuters will be
benefited annually. Pakistan is also working on Karachi-Lahore motorway. This
1160-km long motorway will connect Karachi, Hyderabad, Dadu, Sukkur, Rohri,
Pannu Aqil, Ghotki, Obara, Rahim Yar Khan, Sadiqabad and Multan. This six-lane
road will be built over terrain composed of mainland, mountains and plateaus.
Three bridges will also be constructed over River Sindh, Sutlej and Ravi. These
mega-projects along with several others will help Pakistan stable its economy in
order to execute these projects.

Effects on the Region

At the regional level, India is not very happy with growing Pak-China military and
diplomatic ties. During his visit to India, the Chinese president announced $20
billion of Chinese investment in India over the next five years while it has
promised to invest over $42 billion in Pakistan; a strong Pakistan-Chinese alliance
is a grave threat to India. China has also increased its trade with Southeast Asian
countries including Vietnam, Philippines, Myanmar, Singapore and Malaysia to
balance increased US influence in the region under its Asia-Pacific policy. China is
spending heavily on its navy and building its seaports in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and
Pakistan as a part of its “String of Pearls” strategy.

Strategic Importance

When the corridor is completed, it will serve as a primary gateway for trade
between China and the Middle East and Africa. In particular, oil from the Middle
East could be offloaded at Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which is located just outside
the mouth of the Persian Gulf, and transported to China through the Balochistan
province. Such a link would vastly cut the 12,000-kilometre route that Mideast oil
supplies must now take to reach Chinese ports. Gwadar is located on the shores
of the Arabian Sea it is in Pakistan’s western province of Balochistan.

Importance for Pakistan

Despite its economy being hit hard by flawed economic policies, political chaos,
and a spate of terrorism, Pakistan has made a significant breakthrough on the
economic front as well as against terrorist outfits. With the military going all out
in North Waziristan Agency and adjoining areas to dismantle the operational
infrastructure and hideouts of terrorists, the PML-N government has achieved a
landmark goal by signing numerous agreements with the Chinese government.

Agreements and MoUs

Though the amount for all agreements and MoUs, a part of the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor, is around US$34 billion, around 22 agreements have already
been signed between the friendly neighbours. These include bilateral agreements
for Economic and Technical Cooperation; Government’s Concessional Loan
Agreement for Construction of Cross-Border Optical Fibre Cable System between
China and Pakistan; Signing of Minutes of the 3rd JCC Meeting of CPEC; Signing of
MoU on the Outline of Long Term Plan of CPEC; Signing of MoU on Capacity
Building for Development of CPEC; Framework Agreement for Construction of
Cross-border Optical Fibre Cable System between China and Pakistan; MoU on
Cooperation of Textile Garment Industrial Park Projects in Pakistan; and some
other projects.

In energy sector, MoU on Surface Mine in Block-II of Thar Coal Mine and the
Engro Thar 2X330 MW Coal Fired Power Plant between Sindh Engro Coal Mining
Company and China Development Bank Corporation have been signed.
Others included MoUs for development of Thermal Power Assets for Pakistan,
HUBCO Power Company Limited (2 x 660MW including Jetty); Memorandum of
Facilitation between Port Qasim Electric Power Company Private Limited and
Government of Pakistan (2X660); Memorandum of Facilitation Agreement
between Govt. of Punjab and M/s Huaneng Shandong Rui Group, China for
Development of 1320 (2×660) MW Coal Fired Power Project at Qadirabad,
Sahiwal; Signing of Framework Facility Agreement on Sukhi-Kinari Hydro Power
Project; Memorandum of Facilitation Agreement between Govt. of Punjab and
M/s China Machinery Engineering Corporation China (CMEC) for 1×660 MW
Coal Fired Power Plant at Muzaffargarh.

In Gwadar, agreements have been made to construct Gwadar New International

Airport; Gwadar Eastbay Expressway; Hospital at Gwadar; Technical & Vocational
Training Institute; Water Supply and Distribution; Infrastructure for Free Zone &
EPZs port related Industries and Marine works.

Infrastructure Projects

The infrastructure projects planned included Karakorum Highway (KKH) Phase II

(Raikot-Islamabad); Karachi-Lahore Motorway (KLM) – (Multan-Sukkur Section);
Expansion & Reconstruction of existing Mail Railway Line (ML-1); Peshawar to
Karachi; Construction of Havelian Dry Port; Orange Line Project at Lahore; and
Cross Border Optical Fiber Cable system project.

Energy Projects

Significant Energy Projects are being installed of around 10,400 megawatts. Those
projects included the Port Qasim Electric Power Company (2X660) 1320
megawatts; Engro Thar Coal-fired Power Plant 660 megawatts; Sindh Sino
Resources Power Plant of Thar Coal (Block-1) 1320 megawatts; Gwadar Coal
Power Project 300 megawatts; Rahimyar Khan Coal Power 1320 megawatts;
Muzaffargarh Coal Power 1320 megawatts; Sahiwal Power Plant 1320 megawatts;
Suki Kinari Power Project 870 megawatts; Karot Hydro Power Station 720
megawatts; UEP Wind Power Project 100 megawatts; Sunec Wind Power Project
50 megawatts; Sachal Wind Power Project 50 megawatts; Dawood Wind Power
Project 50 megawatts; Quaid-e-Azam Solar 900 megawatts; and Quaid-e-Azam
Solar 100 megawatts.

Making Corridor Operational

For the purpose of making the economic zone operational, the Chinese
government has been involved in constructing a multi-billion-dollar New Kashgar
City, where Kashgar Special Economic Zone is being constructed. With its
proximity to Pakistan (approximately 500 kilometres) and a flying time of around
one hour, Kashgar-Gawadar Economic Corridor may prove to be a game-changer
for development in Pakistan, India and beyond.

The Chinese government plans to complete this economic zone by year 2020, and
industrialists have been offered tax-free zone and other government concessions.

This economic zone would prove to be the linchpin for trade between China,
Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and eight other central Asian states.

The integrated project has been designed under a holistic approach to link
modern means of communication including rail, road links with trade and
economic opportunities not only for both China and Pakistan but for the entire
South Asia.
The early harvest projects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would be
completed within a span of two to three years. These include laying of rail, road
networks besides several long and short term energy projects.

Strategic Importance for China

This trade initiative has strategic importance for China as well as Pakistan as it
would provide an opportunity to reach out to the Central Asian states through
Pakistan and Afghanistan.

There is an integrated communication network which would not only benefit

Pakistan but also China to help open a new vista of trade with the rest of the
world in a short period of time. Chinese trade through this route would grow
manifold.

In order to operationalise China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Chinese

government has set up a special economic zone in the historical city of Kashgar,
which is the border city between China and Pakistan.

The New Kashgar Economic Zone is spread on 6600 acres of land and various
provincial governments of China and some private firms are developing their own
projects within the tax free zone.

All necessary civic facilities are available in Kashgar New City Project where the
preservation of farms is also being ensured. In the eastern part of the Kashgar
New City, residential areas, hospitals, parks and other civic facilities are being
made available. Since Kashgar borders eight countries, a business city has been
named after each country of the region.
Conclusion

The business community of the entire region may benefit from the ambitious
project designed to share and expand the trade opportunities for progress and
development of South Asia. This would not only help regional governments to
fight poverty, illiteracy and religious fanaticism, but would also bring
development and prosperity of the people of around ten developing states.

The Other Side of the CPEC

June 25, 2018 in CSS Special, June 2018

Materialization of Chinese dream or a game-changer for Pakistan?

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has been called a game-changer or even a

fate-changer by its overly enthusiastic proponents. CPEC is a well-thought-out and
well-crafted concept to unleash the process of meaningful cooperation between
the two neighbouring countries – Pakistan and China – with a greater aim of
bolstering socioeconomic conditions of the region. It has four basic perspectives:
historical, economic, cultural and geo-political. The very concept of the corridor is
based on building a network of roads, highways, railways, power-generation
plants and industrial parks, all the way from Khunjerab to Gwadar.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is simply the revival of the ancient
Silk Road that had played a key role in the promotion of economic ties and
cultural linkages all across the globe. Now, Pakistan and China have made bold
efforts to revive this ancient route. It will reduce the distance between China and
big markets of its goods in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Pakistan also
stands to prosper from this gigantic plan.

CPEC and Pakistan’s Expected Gains

The CPEC is a $62 billion multi-purpose project with shares reserved for
infrastructure development, power–generation, industrial zones and mass transit
schemes. No doubt, CPEC will effect an economic breakthrough in Pakistan, and if
it works out as planned, it would generate three to four times the initial $62
billion investment.

a half billion tonnes per annum. Tourism industry will also get a much-needed
boost. With peace and stability, especially in country’s northern areas, tourists
from around the globe will flock in these areas blessed with picturesque beauty.
Moreover, it will raise Pakistan’s $274 billion GDP by over 15 percent.

CONCERNS
Pakistan has a casino economy with people investing in real estate, stocks, etc., in
anticipation of high returns; thus manufacturing is on decline, imports are
increasing and balance of payment is lopsided.

The next economic crisis could be at the doorstep as Pakistan’s economy, unable
to pay such huge loans back after 2020, may go into recession. Furthermore,
Chinese are bringing their own coal dumping into Pakistan, though the country is
already rich in coal mines. This coal will produce electricity at much higher cost
and more shocking is that it will be compulsory for Pakistan to buy that electricity,
and this will again worsen the situation regarding the taunting circular debt. In
addition, Chinese companies are bringing their own manpower. Hence, the
multiplier effect of infrastructure will benefit Chinese more than the locals. This
will escalate poverty, exploitation and unemployment in Pakistan. Furthermore,
expenses on the security of the route will also be borne by Pakistan. The
environmental concerns are also very alarming with Chinese using emissions-
belching technologies, clearing and destroying agrarian lands. The use of coal, a
19th century technology to produce electricity with high carbon emissions and
heavy consumption of water as its prerequisite, will be dreadful for Pakistan’s
environment. Over-construction of dams on the Indus will affect agriculture in
downstream areas and thousands of people will be displaced and flow of silt will
be halted as well. Lastly, the introduction of Chinese language as well as the
Chinese culture in the curriculum as a compulsory subject will burden the already
struggling students and will also create certain socio-religious issues as Chinese
language and culture directly contradicts our religion, traditions and social fabric.

Materializing the Chinese Dream?

China’s dilemma of Malacca Strait will be easily overcome because the Strait is
not too deep for large vessels to pass through. Secondly, since some pro-US
nations in Southeast Asia like Malaysia and Singapore control the Strait and they
can impose blockade on Chinese vessels – to the detriment of the Chinese
economy – the CPEC is an ever-reliable substitute. With CPEC, China can dent the
US’s Pivot to Asia Policy and make an economic bloc of emerging economies in
Central and South Asia and manipulate the markets in the respective countries.
CPEC also gives a useful alternate to utilization of Chinese labour to their own
benefit. Chinese companies have bought 40 percent shares Pakistan Stock
Exchange, enabling themselves to reshape the Pakistan’s economy to their
utmost benefit. Moreover, China will also become an important stakeholder in
Afghanistan and will try to diminish US existence in this part of the world.
Similarly, China could threaten Indian claims of Tibet region by exploiting the
Kashmir issue. It’s a win-win situation for China in any case.

Other than security expenditures, infrastructure costs are also borne by Pakistan
and now NEPRA has diverted security cost of CPEC to taxes on the locals. After a
couple of years when Pakistan will have to return the loan, there will be outflow
of money and profit remittances to Chinese companies. This might endanger
Pakistan’s already depleting forex reserves. Pakistan has done no planning how
revenue will be generated for these payments and that may compel the country
to return to the IMF.

In a nutshell, there are a lot of unanswered concerns. We cannot afford to let US

imperialism be replaced with a Chinese variety or let the Chinese take the role of
new East India Company because it will paralyze our nation forever or make
Pakistan a dummy state in the hands of China that is always able to pull out
money and knock Pakistan into economic depression. We do not want
development at the expense of sovereignty as no Chinese naval base in Gwadar
will be acceptable in the long run. Most importantly, we will have to devise an
indigenous economic policy so as to guarantee Pakistan’s stability and economic
growth.

The Gwadar free zone has so far attracted direct investment of about $474
million from some 30 companies involved in business ranging from logistics to fish
processing.

on October 7, the President of Pakistan issued an ordinance for formal creation of

the authority.Why Pakistan needs efficient structuring of the ‘CPEC Authority’.
The CEO has been given great autonomy in decision making and implementation.
It has also given power to develop budget for the authority. The CEO will be
directly reporting to the Prime Minister, which is a good strategy to ensure the
autonomy and efficacy of the authority. BACK TO TOP

PAKISTAN

Why Pakistan needs efficient structuring of the ‘CPEC Authority’

BY CRSSBLOG

October 9, 2019

Leave a Commenton Why Pakistan needs efficient structuring of the ‘CPEC

Authority’

Shakeel Ramay

In August this year, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that the China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) Authority had been established to improve the
efficiency of CPEC-related interventions. Therefore, on October 7, the President of
Pakistan issued an ordinance for formal creation of the authority. The authority
will be headed by the Prime Minister of Pakistan and assisted by a Chief Executive
Officer (CEO). The CEO will be assisted by two executive directors for policy
research and operations. It will also include six members, who will play a role in
finalizing the projects and their execution.

The proposed structure seems good, as it is focusing on the vision (research) and
implementation (operations). However, the final structure and Terms of
Reference for the CEO and other officers will provide us with a better picture of
authority and its functions. As the authority has just been created, therefore, it is
good time to discuss the working and functions of the CPEC authority.

First, the overall structure of the authority, which has been proposed in the
ordinance, seems to have been developed after solid good research. Building on
the proposed structure, a sketch of CEO’s office is developed. On the basis our
analysis, we tried to add new layers under the executive directors (Fig-1 below).

The CEO of the authority would then be assisted by two executive directors, as
prescribed in the ordinance, with the mandates of research and operations. The
CEO has been given great autonomy in decision making and implementation. It
has also given power to develop budget for the authority. The CEO will be directly
reporting to the Prime Minister, which is a good strategy to ensure the autonomy
and efficacy of the authority. However, it is suggested here that the authority
should also have some linkages with National Development Council (NDC). As
NDC is the highest decision making body in present context.
The Executive Directors (EDs) will assist the CEO and would be responsible for
setting vision through research and efficient implementation of programs. Our
analysis suggests that four dedicated departments should be created under two
Executive Directors. The office of Policy and Research’s Executive Directors should
have departments; a) Policy and Research and b) business development. The
second Executive Director should also be assisted by two departments; a)
Implementation and b) M&E.

The Policy and Research department should focus on three areas (see Fig-2
below).

First, it should provide legal cover and services for the activities of authority by
adopting an appropriate policy framework. The policies should be developed on
the basis of the evidence provided by research and engagement. Moreover, the
department should also devise skill development policy for implementation. Skill
development policy should not only focus on industrial needs, but also
agricultural, social sector needs and most importantly the capacity of government
and business officialsThe authority will be headed by the Prime Minister of
Pakistan and assisted by a Chief Executive Officer (CEO). The CEO will be assisted
by two executive directors for policy research and operations. It will also include
six members, who will play a role in finalizing the projects and their execution.
Promulgation of an ordinance creating CPEC authority... a sign of it's intention to
fast track the building of the corridor. Second phase of project, standstill for two
years which includes a railway project ML1, a multi billion dollar project. Free
Trade Agreement FTA and Security cooperation has received a boost from the
meeting. Bloomberg reports that Chinese foreign direct investment into Pakistan
has declined by 77 percent in the last fiscal year.
The second phase of construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
will focus on industrial cooperation, agricultural cooperation, and construction of
Gwadar port and socio-economic development, of which 27 new projects will be
launched during the year.

After more than four years of joint efforts, the first phase of the investment of US
$ 19 billion in 22 projects have been completed and put into operation, and some
are nearing completion. These major projects, mainly related to energy and
transport infrastructure, were completely alleviated by Pakistan's long-standing
power supply shortage and partially created a smooth highway network, thus
setting the stage for a rapid track for Pakistan's future socio-economic
development. the Qasim Port coal-fired power station is a priority
implementation project in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which has
contributed US $167 million to the Pakistani government's tax revenue in the past
year or so. the government's tax contribution to the Pakistani government is likely
to reach nearly US $ 10 billion.

Concerns

CPEC was projected to stimulate an 8 to 10 percent increase in Pakistan’s GDP by

2030, but some Pakistani experts fear a debt trap. Since it launched in 2015, the
project’s total cost has increased from about $45 billion to $62 billion, with
Pakistanis expecting new roads and railways, industrial zones, and local jobs.
While there has been an increase in infrastructure jobs for Pakistani workers,
most of the top-level technical jobs have gone to Chinese workers, with an
estimated 10,000 Chinese working in Pakistan.

The new Pakistani government does not seem as enthusiastic about CPEC as its
predecessor.

Under Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was elected in 2018, CPEC projects have
begun to stall. Official data released this week shows that foreign direct
investment from China has plunged by 77 percent in the last fiscal year. The
slowdown is in part due to Pakistan’s economic problems: In May, Pakistan
accepted a $6 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund—its 13th IMF
bailout package since the late 1980s.

The slowdown has come amid other threats to CPEC projects and to China’s
public image in Pakistan, particularly in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan
province.The development of the port of Gwadar—CPEC’s backbone—is
underway in Balochistan, where a separatist insurgency operates. The Baloch
nationalists accuse the Pakistani authorities of exploiting their natural resources,
and they have a long history of launching attacks against outsiders—whether
settlers or foreign investors. With the arrival of Chinese companies, the Baloch
have now labeled the Chinese as exploiters, too.Violent extremist groups such as
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the Afghan Taliban also operate in Balochistan. In the
future, Pakistani jihadis may increasingly target Chinese interests in retaliation for
China’s treatment of the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang region, Siegfried O. Wolf
notes in his book The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road
Initiative. “Jihadists increasingly identify CPEC projects and other Chinese
endeavors—especially other economic corridors under the [Belt and Road
Initiative]—as targets,” Wolf writes.

Complaints of uneven distribution of CPEC investment within Pakistan have fueled

tensions. For example, officials in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces
have claimed that Punjab province has been favored for major projects. In
November 2018, an unprecedented terrorist attack hit the Chinese consulate in
Karachi, killing seven people. The separatist Balochistan Liberation Army claimed
responsibility, describing China as an oppressor that wanted to “destroy the
future of Balochistan.”

In recent months, Chinese residents in Pakistan have been accused of sex

trafficking, violating labor laws, and bank fraud, revealing the potential limits of
the special relationship.

Labor issues have also fostered resentment among Pakistani workers. Laborers
working on infrastructure projects under Chinese supervisors and engineers have
complained of 10-hour workdays and harsh treatment, in violation of Pakistani
labor law.

CPEC and the wages of mismanagement

By durdana najam Oct.16,2019

Originally it was a $46 billion project which has now gone to $60 billion. The current CPEC
portfolio consists of 43 projects, of which 22 are under implementation. Another 157 projects
of the corridor will be gradually completed in the next 12 years. Though this vast infrastructural
network of the project would lift a substantial number of people from poverty, it is difficult to
perceive as to how this corridor alone will pull Pakistan out of its economic woes, such as the
low tax-to-GDP ratio and dwindling export, without the government changing its way of
managing the economy. Unless Pakistan has decided to become China’s client state, CPEC alone
should not be the only economic issue concerning Pakistan. The CPEC is a recent phenomenon
in the Pakistan-China relationship spanning 70 years. And appallingly, during these seven
decades, except Pakistan, almost every country in the region has benefited from China’s rising
stature as the economic power. The bilateral trade between India and China has reached $7.70
billion in 2019. Philippines’ trade volume with China is three times higher than that of Pakistan.
Vietnam, which is half of Pakistan’s economy, has four times higher bilateral trade with China.
Bangladesh’s export to China has been recorded at $3.3 billion in July 2019, as compared to
Pakistan’s that stands at $1.9 billion.

Foreign Policy

Belt and Road Tests China’s Image in Pakistan

As China’s presence in Pakistan grows, the countries’ special relationship could be
strained.
The Chinese diplomat’s use of the everyday Arabic term mashallah was
deliberately casual. On a diplomatic level, China has managed to maintain its
image as a credible friend to Pakistan despite cultural gaps. But that’s largely
been because of a lack of real contact.

"Robust defence of CPEC " by Tribune

Editorial

- https://tribune.com.pk/story/2105906/6-robust-defence-cpec/?amp=1

Pakistan leapt into the fray to mount defence of the lucrative, multi-billion-dollar
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project a day after an uncommon
slugfest between Washington and Beijing on the question of who stands to
benefit most from the latter’s signature scheme. On the United States’ concern
over ‘burdensome loans’ from Chinese state-owned enterprises potentially
‘hamstringing Prime Minister Imran Khan’s reform agenda’, Pakistan issued a
robust rebuttal, with newly-inducted Planning and Development Minister Asad
Umar quashing the notion that Islamabad was destined to slip into a ‘debt trap’.

He was at pains to nullify the suggestion that Beijing was the sole beneficiary of
its corridor project and asserted that the country’s relations with China within the
scope of the grand scheme will never cool. Umer was responding to a speech
made by US Acting Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs, Alice
Wells, at an event in Washington two days previously. She had launched a
blistering attack on China’s international development projects and lending
practices under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The planning and development minister, in his rejoinder, said that CPEC would
not prove to be a burden for the country but help in providing a strong basis for
industrial growth in the years ahead. To Wells’ assertion that the multi-billion-
dollar project is ‘certain to take a toll on Pakistan’s economy’ at the time of
repayment of the debt and dividends in the coming years, Umer pointed out that
the bilateral commercial debt from China would start declining in two to three
years. He was unequivocal in his avowal that Pakistan would neither back out
from the CPEC nor would it become a ‘collateral damage’ of any conflict between
major powers.

Speaking about what he claimed was an ‘organized campaign’ against the CPEC
both from in and outside the country, he said he could not say whether the US
was behind that campaign or not. ‘What I can say is that we cannot step back
from our friends especially from those who helped us out when we were at the
deepest crisis of our history.’ We cannot agree with the minister more.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 25th, 2019.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all
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New Cold War?

By M ZIAUDDIN on November 27, 2019

https://www.brecorder.com/2019/11/27/548017/new-cold-war/

Both Pakistan and China have given a fitting reply to the uncalled for and ill-
informed US criticism of and objection to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC). But more than the CPEC, the US appears to be too wary of China's One
Belt One Road (OBOR) project which proposes to bring world markets exceedingly
closer to each other, in physical terms, thus curtailing drastically the commercial
reach and cost of transportation.

And this wariness of the US appears to be arising out of its fear of losing its
primacy in world affairs to China. In other words, the US seems to have been
sucked into what is called the Thucydides Trap which means that war between a
rising power and an established power is inevitable: Thucydides, the Greek
historian, had claimed that “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this
instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable."

Not that a war seems inevitable between the US and a rising China. But the
ensuing bitter competition for world markets between the two is likely to cause a
lot of disruption in the world in coming months and years.

Indeed, up until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, the Western model of
liberal, democratic, and presumably meritocratic capitalism seemed all but
unchallenged from an ideological point of view. The system that US promoted
was presumably based on rule of law; limits on the absolute power of the state;
free speech; freedom of worship; equal justice; respect for women; religious and
ethnic tolerance; and respect for private property.

Many nations, with different histories and cultures, facing different

circumstances, were seen successfully incorporating these core principles into
their own systems of governance.

However, the events and aftermath of the GFC and the consequent Great
Recession (2007-9) have in the meanwhile caused widespread political rage,
undermining the political legitimacy of Western democracies.

Not surprisingly, it was precisely in the wake of the GFC that questions first
started to get asked whether “the China Model" might come to replace the
western one. Over the last decade, the fear in the West has risen steadily that
China is eating ‘our lunch'.

What America has belatedly realized is that it is finding itself locked in a profound
struggle not with some Communist power slowly democratizing, but rather with a
rival, authoritarian brand of capitalism, firm in its own vision of politics, with
neither need nor intention of converging with the US model.

Indeed, if anything, the illiberal turn in western democracies over the last decade
suggests that insofar as convergence is happening, it is via more fragile liberalizing
democracies becoming more authoritarian rather than the other way around. At
this point even the Chinese believe that the best the Western democracies can
hope for is to “maintain a mutually beneficial collaboration while managing a
benign rivalry.
According to Nils Gilman (China, Capitalism, and the New Cold War – review of
Branko Milanovic's book Capital, Alone published in The American Interest
magazine in its November Edition) while central planning imploded in the 1980s
and 1990s as a credible alternative to capitalism, there have now emerged two
(broadly stylized) ideological alternatives within capitalism, which is referred to as
“Liberal Meritocratic Capitalism" (an abstracted version of contemporary
American capitalism) and “Political Capitalism" (whose primary exemplar today is
China).

Gilman maintains that the greatest threat to liberal meritocratic capitalism comes
not from any direct challenge from political capitalism, but from the widespread
sense that the liberal meritocratic order has betrayed its promises.

“Widening inequality in the West, and the willingness and ability of the elite to
game the system to benefit their friends and offspring, have led many to feel that
the meritocracy is sham, which in turn has fuelled populist illiberalism on the right
and neo-socialism on the left.

“Political capitalism is a form of market-based political economy in which the

government, as opposed to civil society, retains ultimate authority over major
economic decision-making. There are three defining features of political
capitalism. First, “a highly efficient and technocratically savvy bureaucracy" is put
in charge of the system, with a mandate to realize high economic growth. Second,
while capitalists and entrepreneurs may make huge amounts of money under
political capitalism, “capitalists' interests are never allowed to reign supreme, and
the state retains significant autonomy to follow national-interest politics." Third,
the state retains ultimate control over the capitalists because the “rule of law" as
such is absent. While the system is meritocratic in that the bureaucrats are
appointed and promoted based on objective criteria, the political echelon retains
final and arbitrary power.

“In the present case, the tension is between two variants within capitalism, rather
than between two kinds of modernism, namely capitalism and communism. But if
the two systems of capitalism, the liberal-meritocratic and the political, stand less
far apart in their operating principles than did Communism and Capitalism, this
need not mean the competition will be any less fierce."

In terms of the viability of their system as a model for the Global South to
emulate, the looming fact, according to Gilman, is that China is an economic
success story. China's system of political capitalism, for all its flaws, has lifted
more people out of poverty than have all the Western development programmes
of the last half-century.

While more a slogan and a vision than a definite set of plans, it is clear from the
book that the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) represents an effort by China to export
its surplus capital and know-how in infrastructure development to countries
throughout its periphery, with the evident ambition of turning China into the
central trading hub of the 21st century.

While the United States habitually pressures other countries on their internal
politics, the Chinese tend, in the opinion of Gilman, in fact, to be studiously silent
on the internal politics of other countries. China's commitment to respecting the
political sovereignty of other countries to this extent feels sincere.

One crucial difference between the first Cold War and this new one, observes
Gilman is that whereas the Soviet and the American economies were separate
from one another, the Chinese and the American ones are deeply
interdependent, almost placentally so. Because the economies of the two
countries are, at least for now, so intertwined, the new Cold War is less a matter
of ideological competition than a struggle for economic ascendency.

“In a nutshell, what we are facing is not an ideological Cold War, or even a trade
war, but in fact a tech war-that is, a war for control over technological standards
and the commercial spoils that go with that. Arguably, the greatest geopolitical
risk today is thus that “tech may trip the Thucydides trap," observed Gilman.

“Overall, the evidence suggests that growing Chinese influence over how
countries organize their political economies is the result less of any effort on
China's part to export their ideological model than of the eagerness of leaders in
the Global South to exercise the kind of social and political control enabled by
these technologies, which the Chinese are happy to sell to them. China's motives,
in short, are commercial rather than political. The central question facing
American foreign policymakers is how to promote the liberal values associated
with meritocratic capitalism in a world of growing de facto support for the
political capitalism that China symbolizes," wonders Gilman.

Milanovic, the author of the book offers several recommendations that he

believes can help restore the meritocratic promises of liberal capitalism. First, it is
essential to equalize access to high-quality education. In the United States today,
in particular, the educational system at every level is intensely stratified, and
incumbent elites have largely reserved access to the best institutions for their
own class. Massive renewed investment in public education is thus one critical
leg.
Second, because income from capital grows more quickly than income from labor,
abating growing inequality requires a broader distribution of access to capital.
This suggests a renewed commitment to spreading access to capital, by ensuring
that shares in enterprises are owned broadly, not confined to a narrow class of
rentiers and executives. The goal should be to “reduce the concentration of
wealth and income from capital" and increase inter-generational income mobility.
To achieve these objectives, Milanovic proposes increases in the taxation of the
rich, especially a return to high taxation of inheritance with the explicit goal of
reducing the concentration of wealth in the hands of the rich.

If liberal meritocratic capitalism can address the betrayal of its own ethical
operating principles, or perhaps even evolve into some more mutualistic form of
“people's capitalism," then it may well be able to renew its long-term appeal to
the Global South. Conversely, if China's style of political capitalism can avoid the
besetting sins of previous authoritarian regimes, namely the tendency to generate
bad policies and social outcomes that benefit only political insiders, and instead
continue to deliver higher rates of growth, efficient administration, and an ability
to address perceived social challenges, the appeal of the Chinese system may only
grow.

In the end, Milanovic doubts whether either the political or liberal meritocratic
variants of capitalism is likely to achieve total global victory. For one thing, neither
the United States nor China is going to embrace the other's system for
themselves.

The answer, according to Milanovic, is that the competition is to win the hearts
and minds (or, as we will discuss, at least the pocketbooks) of the leaders of what
used to be called the Third or developing world, and which is now generally
referred to as the Global South.
SEZ commitments

EditorialNovember 27, 2019

THE new phase of CPEC that is set to begin, and which the government is
defending vigorously as the central pillar of the crucial corridor project, has as its
centrepiece the creation of Special Economic Zones that will offer critical
incentives to all industries that opt for locating their plant within them. But while
this commitment is repeated regularly in public remarks, those businessmen who
have invested in existing SEZs are lining up to say that they regret their decision
because the government has reneged on its key pledges. Only recently, we saw
the government impose a 1.5pc turnover tax on all enterprises including those
located in the SEZs, even though the SEZ Act of 2012 specifically exempts them
from such impositions. When delegates from these SEZs met the government and
tax officialdom to take up their concern, their request was denied with special
objection from the FBR that invoked the strict revenue targets being chased by
the government as one of the justifications. Beyond that, enterprises that have
begun operations in the three main SEZs of the country — Bin Qasim Industrial
Park, the Korangi Creek Industrial Park and Khairpur Special Economic Zone —
have also found that the government commitment to providing infrastructure
has not been met, with some of them having to run on power connections on a
temporary basis, the tariff of which is far higher than what they were told it
would be.
This does not make for an edifying sight. Many of those who feel shortchanged by
these commitments — of infrastructure provision and tax-free status — are
foreign investors. If the commitments made to investors in the existing SEZs are
not being met, the government cannot credibly extend the same to new
investors in another round of SEZ construction. It is important that the
government, whether provincial or federal, sit down and remove the concerns of
investors in the three main SEZs before making further fresh commitments to
SEZs under CPEC.

"US on CPEC" by Dawn Editorial

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1530024?ref=whatsapp

HIGH-level engagements between the US and Pakistan on Tuesday resulted in

some interesting outcomes. Meeting Prime Minister Imran Khan in Davos,
President Donald Trump, who called Mr Khan his “friend”, said that Pakistan and
the US had never been as close as they were now. But though this camaraderie is
welcome, speaking in Islamabad, Alice Wells, the State Department’s senior
official looking after the South Asia file, delivered yet another critique of CPEC. Ms
Wells made some very serious allegations, claiming that firms blacklisted by the
World Bank had got CPEC contracts, adding that Pakistan was walking into a debt
trap laid by China. She also urged the government to be more “transparent”
about the flagship scheme, described as a game changer by the state. On
Wednesday, the Chinese embassy in Pakistan released a rejoinder to the
American official’s criticism. While observing that Beijing would be “more than
glad” to see the deepening of Pakistan-US ties, it dismissed the American criticism
as “negative propaganda”. It also pointedly asked what Washington had done for
Pakistan.

Some background is necessary here. During the Trump administration, ties

between China and the US have been especially frosty, and Ms Wells’s critique of
CPEC must be seen in this geopolitical perspective. However, while good advice
from our foreign friends is always welcome, they should avoid giving Pakistan
lectures on how to conduct its foreign policy. True, there are some concerns
regarding CPEC, and this paper has always called for all projects under the scheme
to be made more transparent, and to benefit Pakistan in the long run. But for the
Americans to wholly dismiss this giant collaborative effort between Pakistan and
China is unacceptable. Also, the relationship between Islamabad and Beijing is
decades old and has a strategic dimension, and Pakistan can ill afford to ditch an
ally simply to please another foreign friend. This country values its relationship
with the US, but as the Chinese have rightly pointed out, what has Washington
done of recent to help uplift Pakistan economically, and stand by it in
international forums?

Concerning Mr Trump’s comments, while the US president is prone to making

hyperbolic statements, his newfound fondness for Pakistan should be
appreciated. As for ties between the states being at an all-time high, this claim is
debatable. After all, the US and Pakistan were quite close when it came to
dislodging the Soviets from Afghanistan under Gen Zia’s watch — though history
will judge whether that endeavour was the wisest move to make for this country.
Moreover, in the aftermath of 9/11, Gen Musharraf was walking in lockstep with
Washington in the ‘war on terror’. If Mr Trump really wants to take the bilateral
relationship to new heights, then let the US offer this country trade, investment
and assistance. Moreover, if Washington values Pakistan’s friendship, let it
publicly back this country’s stance on India-held Kashmir, FATF and other critical
matters.
"Economic diplomacy" by Haroon Sharif

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1533152?ref=whatsapp

AFTER China opened up a vast landscape of economic cooperation with Pakistan,

global political influences seem to be overshadowing the country’s attempted
transition towards a new framework of economic diplomacy. While this was being
noticed with the slowing down of progress on the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), it became more evident after Pakistan’s decision to stay away
from the Kuala Lumpur summit. Having taken a clear position on promoting
strategic economic partnerships as a policy priority, the leadership is now
spending most of its time on damage control due to lack of delivery on its
promises.

It can be argued that a country with weak economic fundamentals, political

instability and fragmented institutions will struggle to take a leadership role in
economic diplomacy. A serious shift towards increasing trade and investment
stakes of regional partners may well be the only answer to reviving growth and
stability. It is a real test for the leadership to maturely and sensibly manage this
transition from a security-led engagement to leveraging regional economic
potential for shared prosperity and the possibility of catching up with the income
levels of emerging Asia.

Economic diplomacy is a diverse practice and an evolving subject which generally

involves three kinds of negotiations — trade, investment and development
cooperation. The meaning, forms and ways of economic diplomacy vary from
nation to nation, depending on their levels of economic development. At the
same time, each country is redefining its economic value proposition in the
rapidly changing dynamics of economic gravity towards a multipolar setting that
tilts towards Asia. The dynamics of globalisation and emerging regional markets
have challenged traditional diplomatic practices by forcing countries to increase
their sphere of influence through engaging with a wide range of partners.

In addition to the state, the most important actors of economic diplomacy include
regional organisations, financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds, private
companies and non-governmental economic bodies. Most recent literature
closely links economic security with national security priorities where the role of
economic diplomacy becomes crucial in neutralising the security threats emerging
from weak economic fundamentals.

Signalling a progressive way of engagement to investors is the first step towards

economic diplomacy

In the case of Pakistan, an economic diplomacy strategy should focus on an in-

depth partnership framework with China and regional players, a private sector-led
model to undertake large commercial transactions, revamping of the ministries of
foreign affairs and economic management and a new way of engaging with
multilateral and regional financial institutions.
First, this requires clear ownership of the revival of economic growth at the top
and the prime minister needs to appoint a professionally competent leader to
convene a series of dialogues with researchers, government officials, the private
sector and international institutions. It is pertinent to note that it will have to be a
change-management exercise led by indigenous resources capable of using
evidence to lay the foundations of sustainable growth. No wonder that a country
of over 200 million people is struggling to come up with a serious growth policy
with an inexperienced conflicted team of generalists.

The point is simple: without creating space for top-class economists, sector
experts and people of international standing, a mindset shift will not happen.
When I proposed this idea a year back, I faced a rather hostile pushback from
those looking to secure their comfort zones and to maximise resources rather
than looking at systemic flaws.

Moving ahead, Pakistan needs to demonstrate its capability to undertake a few

large-scale trans-actions to give confidence to interested investors. The prime
minister did a great job by opening doors for future investment from China, Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, Malaysia and Turkey. The challenge was to quickly come up with
a professional response to fast-track decision-making on these commitments. It
was a big mistake to hand over these projects to the usual bureaucratic structure
which has been perpetually failing to structure transactions linked to
privatisation, state-owned enterprises or foreign direct investment. The purpose
is not to criticise but to reflect on how to strengthen the capacity to match the
expectations of countries looking for investment stakes in Pakistan.

In my opinion, the only short-term answer is to insulate priority investment

projects from the current system and hand over to a group of top professionals to
fast-track the structuring of these transactions. Signalling a progressive way of
engagement to investors is the first step towards economic diplomacy.

A serious debate has started on the future of multilateralism and new models of
economic engagement with an increasingly multipolar world. Pakistan’s recent
response to CPEC implementation and strategic engagement in Kuala Lumpur
summit has not been up to the mark. It will be prudent to pick up small doable
transactions with key economic partners and avoid big talk until our economic
realities and state structures are ready to deliver on promises. It is crucial to show
pragmatism in our approach towards economic diplomacy by leveraging the low-
hanging fruit in a proper manner.

The Foreign Office needs to review incentive structures to send its best envoys to
countries with a promise to engage on economic terms. Major investment will be
required to groom the skills of diplomats specialising in economic diplomacy. At
the institutional level, there are too many cooks dealing with investors; this needs
to be urgently streamlined. Several countries have merged the functions of trade
ministries with foreign missions where ambassadors have been given clear targets
regarding the delivery of commercial deals.

Finally, a crucial component of economic diplomacy strategy is to effectively

manage relationships with IFIs and sovereign wealth funds. There are multiple
pockets of regional resources that could be tapped rather than solely banking on
the post-colonial World Bank or Asian Development Bank for financing all
development projects. Pakistan has the weakest representation dealing with
international financial institutions handed over to retired bureaucrats and junior
officials resulting in unnecessary policy influencing by IFIs. It is time to revisit the
approach towards key appointments in international institutions with clear
targets to align with the country’s growth priorities. Economic diplomacy requires
visible signals of a new approach to reposition Pakistan in a rapidly changing
world.

The writer is a senior economic policy thought leader and served as minister of
state and chairman of the Board of Investment in Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, February 8th, 2020

Uighure Woes

A deafening silence

Irfan Husain | Updated October 26, 2019

IMAGINE a scenario in which a Western country locks up hundreds of thousands

of Muslims in internment camps. Here, they are ‘re-educated’ to adopt liberal
values that include a change of language and lifestyle.
Had such a deliberate effort to brainwash an entire Muslim community been
attempted, there would be riots and protests across the Islamic world. Embassies
of the country responsible for this outrage would be attacked, and its businesses
boycotted. We know from experience that this sequence of events is pretty much
standard operating procedure whenever real or perceived acts of state-organised
violence against Muslims take place.

Also read: In China's Xinjiang, Big Brother moves into Uighur homes as 'family' So
why the deafening silence across the Islamic world when around 1.5 million
Muslims in China’s Xinjiang province have been forced into vast ‘re-education
centres’? Even before this policy was launched, Uighur culture was under attack,
with beards and headscarves strongly discouraged by an increasingly harsh
Chinese administration. It is now virtually impossible to find books in the Uighur
language in bookshops. Around half the province’s population of 24m is Sunni,
and largely follows the Sufi tradition.

Apart from Uighurs, there are Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Hui and other minorities in
Xinjiang. Ever since the government in Beijing began its policy of moving Han
Chinese to the province to dilute the Muslim presence, Uighur separatist groups
have resisted and staged sporadic attacks. As often happens, the state has
countered with tough action and policies. The ummah’s response to the Uighurs’
plight is puzzling.

The aim of the Chinese government is to ‘transform through education’. For

thousands of years, the Chinese ruling class has sought to build a stable society
free of tension between various ethnic groups. So when a handful of Uighur
resisted the attempt to integrate them into mainstream Han culture, they were
accused of separatism and subversion. One such group is the Uighur mother-
tongue movement: the authorities have dubbed it the ‘fourth evil’ after
separatism, religious extremism and terrorism.

One example of China’s historic policy of standardising rules across the country is
that despite spanning five time zones, it only has a single standard Beijing time.
This leads to anomalies such as Kashgar in the west having to follow the same
time as the capital. So the sun can be shining while the clock shows 9 pm.

While the policy of brainwashing the Uighur has been widely criticised in the west
as ‘cultural genocide’, Muslims have been largely silent. One reason for this
hypocritical approach is the clout China wields. For Pakistan, China has been the
bedrock of our foreign policy, as well as our economic saviour. It is also an
important importer of Saudi and Iranian oil. And other developing Muslim
countries have benefited from Chinese aid and loans. All these factors have
served to mute criticism of Beijing’s assault on Uighur religion and culture.

But just as important is the pivotal role Xinjiang is expected to play in China’s Belt
and Road Initiative. Roads and railway lines from various points around the world
will carry thousands of containers, and China is nervous about any disruption
caused by separatist groups. It has already seen how such terrorism can affect
infrastructure projects in Balochistan.

China denies that it is trying to brainwash the Muslim population of Xinjiang, but
government spokesmen have admitted to a policy of training and educating the
young. In many cases, children have been separated from parents to be placed in
these centres where they are indoctrinated and forced to learn Mandarin
Chinese. More and more, a single, monolithic Han culture is being forced on
minorities. Muslims, in particular, are at the sharp end of this policy.

Xinjiang means ‘new frontier’, and was given this name when the vast region was
conquered by the Qing dynasty in the 18th century after a series of bloody
battles. However, this conquest was resisted by warlords who regained control of
various areas from time to time. In fact, for a short time, they set up the Republic
of East Turkestan.
Since then, there has been friction between Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, and
Beijing. And as the stakes have risen, so has the level of repression. Electronic
surveillance has been a key element in this crackdown. Locals have been forced to
hand over mobile phones so that their sim cards can be read by the police.
Security forces at innumerable check posts stop and search locals and foreigners
alike, and CCTV cameras check their photographs against a central databank.

The victims of these human rights violations have no right of appeal. China is a
one-party dictatorship. In its long history, there hasn’t been a single period when
democracy was practised. To a large extent, people accept a strong central
government that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty in a single
generation.

But the attitude of the ummah is surprising: both on the left and right, Muslims
have been like the proverbial ostriches.

Exposing the gulag

The Economist 26th October 2019

American state-funded radio has shone a light on mass detentions in Xinjiang.

Such reporting needs more backing.

In2017 word started to emerge from China’s far west that thousands of people
were being sent to a new gulag of “re-education” camps for no reason other than
their Muslim religion and their Uighur ethnicity. The government kept denying
that such camps existed, even as accounts of the horrors became more dramatic
and estimates of the gulag’s population surged to over 1m.

When it at last acknowledged that it had indeed built the facilities, it said that
they were merely vocational-training centres
that would help turn Uighurs away from religious extremism. Rarely since the
enormities unleashed by Mao Zedong has China seen so egregious an attempt to
whitewash an abuse of human rights.

Alongside academics and human-rights groups, Radio Free Asia (rfa), a station
funded by the American government, played a vital role in exposing Xinjiang’s
horrors (see China section). By employing Uighur-speaking journalists, rfahas
gained something that cash-strapped commercial media would find hard to
replicate: a reporting team that is able to penetrate China’s wall of secrecy in
Xinjiang by pumping local sources for information, using their own language. This
has put rfa at the forefront of newsgathering in the region. Western foreign
correspondents have often taken their cues from its coverage of the camps,
where inmates are sent without any judicial process and spend weeks, months or
even longer periods undergoing what official documents, uncovered by Western
academics, describe as an attempt to “wash clean” the Uighurs’ brains.

Such state-backed journalism sounds anachronistic. During the cold war, Lech
Walesa, the leader of Poland’s Solidarity movement and eventually its president,
once credited “Radio Free Europe and the Holy Father” for his country’s liberation
from communism. In 1989 protesters in Tiananmen Square held aloft a banner
saying “Thank you bbc”. Today waging ideological war through the airwaves
sounds more the kind of thing that the Russian or Chinese governments indulge
in, and that the West should seek to avoid.

Yet news from difficult places is at a premium these days. The newsgathering
operations of global media companies are being squeezed—in some parts of the
world by commercial pressure, in others by increasingly repressive governments.
Publicly funded operations such as rfa have gained a new importance.

They do not just provide the outside world with information about troubled
regions; they also provide succour to those inside such places. rfa is the only
broadcaster outside China that uses the Uighur language. It does so online, by
satellite and through short-wave radio. Remarkably, given China’s strenuous
efforts to prevent the spread of news from this “enemy” service by means of
jamming and internet censorship, at least some of Xinjiang’s 10m Uighurs still
manage to receive it. In 2018 a survey by rfa of Uighurs who had recently moved
to Turkey found about a fifth had been regular consumers of its news when they
were living in Xinjiang.

The benefits of such spending may also be reaped closer to home. Many
consumers of Chinese-language news from rfa and stations like it, such as the bbc
World Service, are Chinese people living in the West. They badly need
independent news in their own language as China’s propagandists buy up the rest
of the world’s commercial Chinese-language outlets.

A bill in Congress would double the American government’s annual allocation for
rfa’s Uighur-language service, from $2m to $4m. That seems a worthy—and
cheap—investment. rfa’s total annual budget of $44m, which also provides
broadcasts in eight other languages including Tibetan, is small change compared
with the country’s overseas aid of around $20bn.

There is little the West can do to persuade China to dismantle the camps in
Xinjiang. Western governments have remonstrated, to no avail. America this
month imposed sanctions on Chinese officials and businesses implicated in the
mass internments, but the gesture was little more than symbolic. The Communist
Party may be embarrassed, but it will not be badly hurt. The West may not be
able to determine the fate of places such as Xinjiang, but it can at least help tell
their stories.

"The Chinese version" by Muhammad Amir Rana

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1522359?ref=whatsapp

TENSIONS between China and the US have escalated after the House of
Representative’s Uighur Human Rights Policy Act, 2019. The move is of a piece
with the allegations of many international media and human rights organisations
that China is persecuting the Uighur community and violating their rights —
allegations that Beijing has denied. Calling the US action a political move aimed at
damaging its international image, China says it is running a deradicalisation
programme to mainstream its communities.

The Chinese claim has not been verified by independent sources and mystery
shrouds its deradicalisation or re-education programme. China needs to
demonstrate to the international community that it has inserted human rights
safeguards in its deradicalisation measures.

On their part, the Chinese say that they are countering violent extremism (CVE)
with a strategy that has been designed after a careful examination of CVE
approaches in the West and in the Muslim world which also employ
deradicalisation programmes. The Chinese view has been challenged by those
who point out that standard global CVE practices are different from those
espoused by China, and that global CVE practices are mostly conceived when
countering terrorism perspectives.

Secondly, the Chinese definition of extremism is complicated as it hardly

differentiates between religious, ethnic, linguistic, and cultural grievances. Nor
does this definition describe separately the different sociopolitical manifestations
of extremism, of both the violent and nonviolent variety. The Chinese
deradicalisation programme is also a massive exercise in the sociocultural
engineering of its minority communities.

Beijing has established Islamic centres to prepare imams for preaching the
‘Chinese version’ of religion.

China’s communist party states that ‘harmony’ is the core driver of state policies
as exemplified in its Belt and Road Initiative vision. The idea of ‘harmony’ or
‘harmonisation’ could have been conceived as a substitute for the regular
democratic process, but has, instead, become a driver of legislative and
administrative reform, including ‘re-education’ strategies. However, China is still
striving to generate a framework for ‘harmonising’ its ethnic and religious
communities. Chinese scholars believe that adopting a muscular approach to
‘harmonising’ minority communities is the fastest way to make the autonomous
and administrative regions trouble-free.

Uighur Muslims complain they are paying a huge cost for this ‘harmonisation
process’, which is causing them to lose their religious, ethnic, and cultural
identities. They find only a few voices being raised in their support in the Muslim
world. The Muslim leadership, which is greatly concerned by Islamophobia, has
apparently shut its eyes to the Uighur issue. Their silence is rewarded with
Chinese economic assistance and diplomatic support on international forums.

Though Chinese authorities believe they will be able to achieve their envisioned
sociocultural transformation, they are nervous about their global image. This
year, China opened one ‘re-education’ centre for international visitors in Kashgar,
inviting diplomats, academics and journalists to visit it, in an attempt to counter
international perceptions. But so far, such attempts have not impressed foreign
visitors. While the centre seemed different from the images that appeared in the
international media, the well-articulated responses of the trainees there created
doubts in the minds of visitors. Secondly, Chinese authorities do not provide the
exact number of deradicalisation centres, but according to the international
media, at least 85 such centres have been set up in parts of the country, mainly in
the Xinjiang region.

One component of China’s counter-extremism framework is to challenge radical

narratives, which is resulting in attempts to forge a new ethnic and cultural
identity for Xinjiang’s Uighur community. They are reinterpreting the history of
Xinjiang and Muslims in China. According to some books and booklets, provided
by the authorities to visitors, Chinese historians and scholars are making efforts to
convey to their Muslim populations that they have been a part of the Chinese
civilisation for thousands of years. Their emphasis on cultural integration is part of
a multi-layered strategy.

A booklet titled Historical Matters Concerning Xinjiang and published by the State
Council Information Office in 2019 rejects the idea that Xinjiang has ever been
referred to as ‘East Turkestan’; saying that there has never been any state with
this name. According to the booklet provided by the state authorities, at the turn
of the 20th century, terms such as ‘pan-Turkism’ and ‘pan-Islamism’ “made
inroads in Xinjiang” and “separatists in and outside China politicised the
geographical concept and manipulated its meaning, inciting all ethnic [Muslim]
groups speaking Turkic languages ... to join in creating the theocratic state of East
Turkestan”.

Chinese language courses are compulsory for Muslims because of communication

barriers with Uighur and other Muslim communities, according to the Chinese
authorities. An unusual aspect of this exercise is that the authorities are
attempting to introduce a local, Chinese version of Islam on the pattern of its
previous exercise of nurturing socialism with Chinese characteristics. For this
purpose, Beijing has established Islamic learning centres to prepare imams, or
prayer leaders, who can preach the ‘Chinese version’ of Islam. The curriculum of
Islamic centres includes Chinese language, history, constitution, law, and culture
apart from religious knowledge. These centres are not allowed to collaborate with
other Islamic institutions in Muslim countries.

At a centre in Urumqi, the principal argued that religious institutions in Muslim

countries focus on religious education and are divided along sectarian lines, but
that the centres in China had adopted the values of socialism and developed
compatibility between religion, patriotism and social cohesion. The principal told
a group of international writers, including this writer, that “Chinese Islam has no
space for the evils like extremism and separatism”.

The Chinese authorities complain that Uighur Muslims are not law-abiding
citizens. A booklet titled Vocational Education and Training in Xinjiang, published
by the State Council Information Office, provides insights into the Chinese view of
the issue when it claims that extremist forces act in accordance with “fabricated
religious law” and “domestic discipline”, and defy the country’s constitution and
laws.

It is interesting that at a time when exclusionism, supremacism, and hyper-

nationalism tendencies are globally on the rise, China has decided to launch its
own version of ‘harmonising’ society. This thinking might appear to negate the
global trends but in essence, its objectives are similar, and it has little space for
accepting diversity.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, December 15th, 2019

*CHINA PAKISTAN Economic

CORRIDOR (CPEC)*

*OUTLINE*

1⃣ Introduction
2⃣ Development of Gwadar

3⃣ Previous project: Silk Road

4⃣ Projects

5⃣ Fruits for Pakistan

6⃣ The Concept of One Belt and One Road

7⃣ Different routes

8⃣ Agreement of bilateral trade and economic ties

9⃣ Geostrategic location of Gwadar

🔟 Challenges for Pakistan

• Internal

• External
1⃣1⃣ Counter Indian influnce

1⃣2⃣ Economic gains from this project

1⃣3⃣ Removal of social problems due to CPEC

1⃣4⃣ Balance of power in South Asia

1⃣5⃣ Effects of the projects

1⃣6⃣ Conclusion

*🌹-----Essay-----🌹*

ESSAY

The CPEC is a 3,000-kilometre network of roads, railways and pipelines to

transport oil and

gas from Gwadar Port to Kashgar city, northwestern China's Xinjiang Uygur
autonomous region,
China Daily reports. China and Pakistan have agreed to build One Belt One Road
project more

commonly known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is expected to bring about

both peace and

prosperity in South Asia. This corridor will link between Kashgar in north-western
China to Pakistan's

Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea near the border with Iran via roads, railways and
pipelines. There are

many internal and external challenges for Pakistan government to implement this
multi-dollars

project. However, it is a game changer project which will transforn1 the fate of
Pakistan and will help

Pakistan modernize. It will improve the economy and trade, enhance regional
connectivity, overcome

energy crises, develop infrastructure and establish people to people contacts in

both the countries.
Proposed by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during his visit to Pakistan in May 2013,
the CPEC

will act as a bridge for the new Maritime Silk Route that envisages linking three
billion people in

Asia, Africa and Europe.

The project links China's strategy to develop its western region with Pakistan's
focus on

boosting its economy, including the infrastructure construction of Gwadar Port,

together with some

energy cooperation and investment programmes. It also involves road and railway
construction

including an upgrade of the 1,300-km Karakoram Highway, the highest paved

international road in the

world which connects China and Pakistan across the Karakoram mountains.

The CPEC will reduce China's routes of oil and gas imports from Africa and the
Middle East
by thousands of kilometres, making Gwadar a potentially vital link in China's
supply chain.

With the support of China, Pakistan has gained significant importance not only in
the region

but the entire world. In recent years, both China and Pakistan have been making
concerted efforts to

revive the historic Silk Road which is one of the oldest known trade route in the
world and will

provide a route for trade from Kashgar (China) to Gwadar (Pakistan). China-
Pakistan Economic

Corridor plan will help Pakistan to become one of the most strategically important
countries in the

region. It will also provide an opportunity to China to build a naval base on

Gwadar port that will

increase influence of China in the region and also counter US influence in the
Asia-Pacific region. The
CBS News quoted some Western diplomats on Pakistan-China partnership.
According to them,

China's increasing economic engagement with Pakistan should be seen in the

context of Beijing's

"efforts to counter the US efforts to deepen alliances around the Asia-Pacific

region."

The "One Belt One Road" concept has international strategic importance. The One
Belt One

Road initiative covers countries and regions with a total population of 4.4 billion
and a total economic

volume of US$ 21 trillion, 63 % and 29 %, respectively of the World.

According to the assessment of the Corridor, the plan is involved in laying the
foundation for

regional cooperation, improving economic growth, offering trade diversifications,

investing in
transportation, mining and energy sectors and creating political flexibility. It is a
vision with world-.

changing implications, an unfolding plan that would weave much of Asia, Europe,
Africa, Oceania

and the Middle East much more closely together through a patchwork of
diplomacy, new

infi\structure and free trade zones.

The "One Belt one Road" Project consists of three routes, southern, central and
northern route. The

southern corridor bogins from Guangzhou, which is the third largest city of China
in South Central China. This route moves towards western parts of China and
connects Kashgar with Pakistan at

Kunjarab - a point from where China wants to link to Gwadar port in the Arabian
Sea. It is the

shortest and the most feasible option for China.

The second Chinese option is the Central Corridor that starts from Shanghai and
links the

country to Tashkent, Tehran and onwards to Bandar Imam Khomeini Port oflran
on the Persian Gulf.

One of its branches goes up towards Europe. This is the longer route but could be
an option, if

Pakistan does not deliver on the timelines of completing its road network to
become a beneficiary of

the New Silk Road Economic Belt. The third Chinese option is the Northern
Corridor that starts from

Beijing, passes through Russia, and links it to European cities.

Recognizing the fact that regional integration is an inevitable measure to meet

the demands of

economically globalized world, the notion of Silk Road was reformulated and
rephrased by China in
2013 under 'one road, one belt' initiative, i.e., economic belt along the Silk Road
and the Maritime

Silk Road.

Pakistan is a significant partner for China as it links China to the Central Asia,
Southern Asian

region and Middle East and its major deep-sea port Gwadar offers direct access to
the Indian Ocean

and beyond. Both countries have been working on enhancing their coordination
and strategic

communication to safeguard common interests. China-Pakistan Economic

Corridor (CPEC) represents

a new model of Pakistan and China cooperation which will serve against the
backdrop of complex and

changing regional and international situations.

China and Pakistan have developed strong bilateral trade and economic ties and
cooperation
over the years. China has gradually emerged as Pakistan's major trading partner
both in terms of

exports and imports. Bilateral trade and commercial links between the two
countries were established

in January 1963 when both signed the first bilateral long-term trade agreement.
Both countries signed

Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on November 24, 2006 and implemented from July I,
2007. Later on,

both signed the FT A on Trade in Services on February 21, 2009 that became
active from October 10

that year.

CPEC is an under-construction mega-project which will achieve the political and

economic

objectives through trade and development and will also strengthen the economic
and trade
cooperation between the two countries. This corridor will also be helpful in
creating regional

stability in South Asia.

After completion of the corridor, it will function as a primary gateway for trade
between China

and Africa and the Middle East. It is expected that this corridor will help cut the
12,000-kilometre

route which Middle East oil supplies must now take to reach the Chinese ports.

This project will run through most of Pakistan starting from Gwadar in Balochistan
and ending

in Kashgar in western China, while passing through parts of Punjab, Sindh,

Balochistan, Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan in northern Pakistan to reach the

Khunjrab Pass and

beyond to China.
Pakistan has prepared a plan to construct three corridors after active consultation
with the

Chinese authorities; these are the eastern alignment, the central alignn1ent and
the western alignment.

The eastern alignment of the corridor originates from Gwadar, travels parallel to
the Makran

Coastal Highway eastwards (towards Karachi), and then after passing through
parts of interior Sindh,

and southern, central and northern regions of Punjab, it reaches Islamabad. From
Islamabad, it extends

to Haripur, Abbottabad and Mansehra districts of the relatively peaceful Hazara

Division in KP - this part of the corridor will also run through Muzaffarabad, the
capital of Azad Jammu and Kashmir - and

reaches Khunjrab after passing through Diamer and Gilgit areas in northern
Pakistan. The corridor

will also run through the Pamir Plateau and Karakoram mountains. A link from
Taxila through
Peshawar and Torkhum will connect the eastern alignment of the corridor to
Jalalabad in Afghanistan.

Regional connectivity with India through the eastern alignment is designed to be

provided through the

Hyderabad-Mirpurkhas-Khokhrapar-Zero Point link and the Wagha border,

Lahore.

Western alignment was the original alignment which the government says has
been deferred

until the eastern alignment of the corridor is completed. According to the western
alignment plan, the

economic corridor (highway and railway) starts from Gwadar and runs through
some southern and

eastern districts of Balochistan (Khuzdar and Dera Bugti, respectively), and some
districts in south

Punjab to reach D. I. Khan in KP. From D. I. Khan, it further extends to Islamabad

and Abbottabad
and from there onwards, the route is the same as in the eastern alignment. The
western alignment will

have an additional regional connectivity link to Afghanistan through Chaman and

will connect with

Iran through Quetta-Kho-e-Taftan link.

Following are the challenges for Pakistan.

Pakistan faces several challenges in the implementation of the China-Pakistan

Economic

Corridor (CPEC) project. These challenges can be identified as external and

internal. The Vice

Director General of Policy Research Office at the International Department of the

Central Committee

Communist Party of China, Dr. Luan Jianzhang is of the view that political unrest,
security situation

and administrative issues are some of the greatest challenges in the way of
successful completion of
the corridor.

The construction of the corridor has been defined by many as a strategic moment
such that

Pakistan has assumed the position of economic pivot for the whole region. This
paradigm shift in

circumstances is a cause of great worry for the enemies of Pakistan both within
and outside. India,

Israel and the US are unhappy. For India, CPEC is a thorn in its paw. They have put
their heads

together to work out new strategies to block the project forward march. RAW has
opened a special

office in Delhi and has been allotted $300 million to disrupt CPEC. Already one can
notice sudden

upsurge in the acts of terror in the three restive regions and activation of certain
NGOs and think tanks
all trying to air misgivings and create fear psychosis.

In Pakistan, some political parties like ANP, Ba loch nationalists, PkMAP raised
serious

objections to the CPEC project. Even PT! and JUI (F) showed inclinations to climb
the bandwagon of

anti-CPEC forces. Objections were being raised despite assurances by the

government that this project

will provide equal opportunities to all the provinces.

Security concerns have been the most critical challenge to the CPEC and both
Pakistan and

China have been trying to meet these. An arc of militancy stretches from Xinjiang
to Gwadar

consisting of groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Tehreek-e-
Taliban Pakistan

(TTP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Daesh (ISIS), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA),

Balochistan
Liberation Front (BLF) and the militant wings of some political parties. Most of
these groups may not

have an enn1ity with China itself but rather intend to attacks the Chinese
interests like the CPEC as a

means to deal with the Pakistani state.

Gwadar is the tail of the Silk belt, which will connect at Kashgar through different

communication networks. The security of the whole corridor and Gwadar is a real
concern for China.

After the military operation in different parts of Pakistan, the terrorist

infrastructure still exists inside

and outside of the borders which will continue to pose a threat. The support of
American CIA, IsraeliMossad and Indian RAW has continuously been assisting the
militant groups and sub-nationalists in

all the provinces to conduct subversive acts - and using terrorist elements in the
whole country to
threaten the Pak-Chinese plans of developing the CPEC. In the past few years,
they kidnapped and

killed many Chinese nationals in Pakistan despite Pakistan's efforts to provide best
possible security.

The army has announced the creation of I 0,000 man special force for protecting
the development

projects. The new force, named the Special Security Division, will comprise nine
army battalion and

six wings of paramilitary forces, the Rangers and the Frontier Corps.

As an economic enterprise, for the CPEC, the greatest challenge comes from
competitors. The

most significant is the Iranian port of Chabahar. India intends to invest

significantly ($85 million) in

the development of Chabahar, which lies a few miles away from Gwadar and is
part of its efforts for
access to land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing rival Pakistan.
Chabahar will

effectively be a way station for energy imports coming from the Gulf region and
destined for

Afghanistan and Central Asia. It will also be a gateway to the Middle East, and
possibly Europe, for

exports originating from Afghanistan and Central Asia. While the Chabahar
project has not yet been

started due to the ongoing talks on the Iranian nuclear issue, the Gwadar port has
already become

functiollal. However, there is no need for contention between these two ports.
Iran has a stake in the

CPEC \hrough the proposal to link the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline with China, which
has been

described as a "common interest" between the three countries.

Indian involvement in Chabahar is linked to Pakistan's refusal to allow India access
of transit

to and from Afghanistan, so India sees Iran as the next-best option. If Pakistan
extends transit facilities

to India, and then India may not be interested in building up Chabahar. In recent
years, India has been

particularly active in engaging Central Asian states for the sake of pursuing energy
deals. India can be

easily accommodated via the CPEC itself through eastern interface in Punjab and
Sindh and

transformed into a stakeholder in the success of both Gwadar and the CPEC.

The dice of connectivity loaded by China has left India confused and bewildered.
India is also

concerned about China's huge investment in Pakistan, particularly its recent

decision to fund for
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China is also helping Pakistan in producing
plutonium at the

Chinese built Kyushu reactor and will also sell eight submarines worth $5 billion,
which will give a

quantum jump to Pak Navy's sea capability.

After the completion of CPEC, Pakistan may become a trade hub in the region
after Gwadar

Port starts functioning fully and duty-free economic zones are set up. Many
Central Asian states have

also expressed interest in becoming part of the corridor. This strategic partnership
between Pakistan

and China has upset India that openly voiced its opposition and even premier
Narendra Modi pressed

the president of China during his visit to Beijing to drop the plan of developing the
corridor. However,
China did not cave in to the pressure and vowed to push ahead with work on the
project.

India is also not happy with the handing over of Gwadar Port development and its
operations to

China. There have long been reports that Delhi is fuelling insurgency in
Balochistan, which is rich in

oil and gas resources, but poor law and order conditions have halted work on
exploration activities

there. Experts believe the India-UAE nexus will try to fail the Gwadar Port
development project and

create hurdles in the way of exploration activities in Balochistan.

With Chinese clout growing and Russia flexing muscles to regain control over
Central Asia,

India is struggling to make some headway and spread its sphere of influence in
the region. Delhi has
bet on Iran and Afghanistan to reach the Central Asian states via land route as
Pakistan and China

have control over many land links that provide access to the resource-rich region.
India hopes it will be able to reach Central Asia through the Iranian port of
Chabahar and build a north-south corridor

that will run to Afghanistan and eventually stretch to Central Asia.

Pakistan has been playing a significant role in South Asia. After the completion of
ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor economic, conunercial as well as geostrategic
environment will improve in

Pakistan. It will help Pakistan in dealing with the problems of poverty,

unemployment and inequities of

undeveloped provinces. During his meeting with President Xi Jinping, President

Mamnoon Hussain said

the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would prove to be a game-changer in the

whole region by

generating massive trade and economic activity and opening new vistas of
progress and prosperity for
the people of the two countries and about three billion people of the region.

CPEC from all counts will prove a game changer and will make China a real
stakeholder in

Pakistan's stability and security. It is a win-win situation for both. It will greatly
expand the scope for

the sustainable and stable development of China's economic development.

Investments by China will

boost Pakistan's $274 billion GDP by over 15 %. Corresponding progress and

prosperity in Pakistan

and China's patronage will help Pakistan in getting rid of the decade old labels of
'epicentre of

terrorism', 'most dangerous country' and a 'failing state'. Pakistan enjoys a more
favourable fiscal

situation compared to India by reducing its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP in 2014
(as against India's
7%) and Pakistan is both competitive and cheaper as an emerging market. China's
economic and

military assistance will help Pakistan a great deal in narrowing its ever widening
gap in economicmilitary-nuclear fields with India and in bettering its defence
potential.

Ambassador of China to Pakistan Sun Weidong while talking about the corridor
said that the

setting up of energy, transport, infrastructure and industrial projects under China-

Pakistan Economic

Corridor (CPEC) would benefit all the provinces of Pakistan. He said that the CPEC
was not limited

to just a road but it will connect the country with a number of motorways and
infrastructure projects.

He explained that infrastructure projects included Gwadar port, the second phase
of the upgrading

project of Karakoram Highway, motorway project between Karachi and Lahore,

Thakot-Have!ian
motorway, Gwadar port expressway, Gwadar international airport and Karachi-
Sukkur motorway,

adding further that the project will increase collaboration in areas of energy,
finance, commerce,

banking, industry and education.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will help build a robust and stable economy in
Pakistan and

will create a significant opportunity for Pakistan to revive its industry and advance
its economic

interests. It will also help in overcoming the psychological barriers to flows of

foreign investment

from other sources. Despite its restrictive economic regime, over 150 private
equity funds, foreign and

domestic, are active in India. Only three or four such funds are dedicated to
investing government,
with the participation of the private sector, to encourage foreign direct
investment in Pakistan is

indispensable. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said war phobia can also be defeated
through economic

development. Peace and prosperity can be achieved with economic

advancement.

This project will go beyond regional ambits to bring about enormous changes not
only to

the national economies of the benefiting states but also to the economics of the
people at the grass

roots level.

CPEC is the crown jewel in the new Pakistan economic paradigm because Pakistan
has the

opportunity to act independently of the western influence especially the US

influence as it has proved
of late, an irritant factor. CPEC project will also bring an opportunity to Pakistan
for normalization of

ties with India, Iran and Afghanistan which will keep balance, strengthen
prospects of peace and

improve socio-economic status of the people of the region.

CPEC is a game changer project which will lift millions of Pakistanis out of poverty
and

misery. The project embraces the construction of textile garment, industrial park
projects, construction

of dams, the installation of nuclear reactors and creating networks of road,

railway line which will

generate employment and people will also take ownership of these projects. Fully
equipped hospitals,

technical and vocational training institutes, water supply and distribution in

undeveloped areas will

also improve the quality of life of people.

CPEC is not only the name of road, port and railway system but a multi-dollars
mega project

which will bring peace and prosperity in all the provinces of Pakistan. The
chairman of the Gwadar

port, Dostain Khan Jamaldini said that the CPEC would not only benefit
Balochistan but also prove

beneficial for the country's three other provinces.

CPEC - All you need to know

1- CPEC:

Establishment of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was first proposed by

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during his visit to Pakistan in May 2013. The proposed
project of linking Kashgar in northwest China with Gwadar Port on Arabian Sea
coastline in Baluchistan was approved on July 5, 2013 during the visit of PM
Nawaz Sharif to Beijing, which included construction of 200 km long tunnel.
2- China’s Investments:

In December 2013, China committed $6.5 billion for the construction of a major
nuclear power project in Karachi. In May 2014, another agreement was signed to
supplement Orange Line metro train project in Lahore worth $1.27 billion. In
November 2014, the two countries signed 19 agreements related to CPEC. In
addition, Chinese firms started work on six mega power projects in Gilgit-Baltistan
such as Dassu, Phandar, Bashu, Harpo, Yalbo to tackle Pakistan’s energy crisis.

3- Quest for Warm Waters:

Mindful of the under development of its western provinces which are its soft belly
and ongoing Uighur movement, China wants speedy modernisation of Xingjiang
and other under developed provinces to bring them at par with eastern
provinces. For the accomplishment of these dreams, China needs access to warm
waters in Arabian Sea through Gwadar since this route to world markets is the
shortest and the cheapest. This access was never granted to Russia.

4- Visit of President Xi Jinping:

With this objective in view, President Xi Jinping visited Islamabad on April 20-21,
2015 and raised the level of investment from $ 26 billion to $ 46 Billion. He signed
51 agreements/MoUs worth $28 billion, with $17 billion in pipeline spread over
15 years. His visit achieved the milestone of the groundbreaking of historic 3,000
km-long strategic CPEC.

5- Projects in Hand:
It includes $ 33 billion worth energy projects such as coal, solar, hydroelectric
power projects which will inject 10,400 MW electricity in the national grid by
2017/18, and hydro power projects. Other projects are fibre optic cable from
Xingjiang to Rawalpindi, 1240 km long Karachi-Lahore motorway, metro and bus
service in six major cities, up gradation of 1300 km long Karakorum Highway,
oil/gas pipelines to connect Kashgar to the seaport of Gwadar, 1,800-km railway
line, commercial sea-lanes, special economic zones, dry ports and other
infrastructure.

6- Routes:

Three routes have been marked:-

I- Western route originating from Gwadar will pass through Turbat, Panjgur, Naag,
Basima, Sohrab, Kalat, Quetta, Qila Saifullah, Zhob DIK, Mianwali, Hasanabdal,
Isbd.

II- Central route will originate from Gwadar, Quetta, and reach DIK via Basima,
Khuzdar, Sukkar, Rajanpur, Liya, Muzaffargarh, Bhakkar, DIK.

III-Eastern route will include Gwadar, Basima, Khuzdar, Sukkar, RYK, Bwp, Multan,
Lahore/Fsbd, Isbd, Mansehra.

7- Importance of Gwadar:
Gwadar is one of the least developed districts in Baluchistan province. It sits
strategically near the Persian Gulf and close to the Strait of Hormuz, through
which 40 per cent of the world’s oil passes. Work on Gwadar deep-seaport had
started in 2002 with China’s investment. In 2013, management of the seaport
which was in the sloppy hands of Singapore PSA International was handed over to
China’s Port Holdings. It is planned to develop Gwadar into free trade zone with a
modern airport on the model of Singapore or Hong Kong and a gateway to CPEC.
It will be largest, deep seaport, overshadowing Chahbahar and Dubai seaports.

8- Views of Analysts:

Some analysts perceive Gwadar seaport turning into China’s naval base in the
Indian Ocean, enabling Beijing to monitor Indian and American naval activities
and thus frustrating their ambition to convert the ocean into exclusive Indian lake.
Modernization of Pak Navy by China is seen as a step in that direction.

Analysts say the projects conceived under CPEC will ease Pakistan’s energy
shortages and make a substantial difference in the long term.

Some experts opine this initiative can bring greater cohesion in South Asia, one of
the world’s least economically integrated regions. It is also feared that clashing
geo-economic interests may lead to unhealthy competition.

9- Gains for China:

While the CPEC may be ‘monumental’ for Pakistan, for China it is part of more
ambitious plans to beef up the country’s global economic muscle. Chinese officials
describe the corridor as the “flagship project” of a broader policy — “One Belt,
One Road” — which seeks to physically connect China to its markets in Asia,
Africa, Europe and beyond. The New Silk Road will link China with Europe through
Central Asia and the Maritime Silk Road to ensure a safe passage of China’s
shipping through the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. CPEC will link China
with nearly half of the population of the world.

Access to Indian Ocean via Gwadar will enable China’s naval warships and
merchant ships to bypass Malacca Strait and overcome its “Malacca Dilemma”.

Development of Gwadar seaport and improvement of the infrastructure in the

hinterland would help China sustain its permanent naval presence in the Gulf of
Oman and the Arabian Sea.

At the same time, the new silk roads are bound to intensify ongoing competition
between India and China –and to a lesser extent between China and the US – to
invest in and cultivate influence in the broader Central Asian region.

10- Indian Concerns:

Modi is at the horns of dilemma; whether to bow to RSS agenda of Hindutva and
remain captive to entrenched interest groups and lobbies in India with hardened
mindset who are doggedly resisting any paradigm shift in relations with rising
China and cling to the myth of Mahabharat. The dice of connectivity loaded by
China has left India confused and bewildered, whether to remain tied to the
aprons of declining super power which is not in a position to make big
investments, or to hitch the bandwagon of ascending power which promises a lot.
Modi’s position will become more vulnerable when Pakistan starts politically
stabilizing and economically shining and Lahore turning into a regional capital and
he unable to fulfill the development agenda.

India is also concerned about China’s huge investment in Pakistan, particularly its
recent decision to fund a new batch of nuclear reactors. Pakistan plans to add
four new nuclear plants by 2023, funded by China, with four more reactors in the
pipeline (adding up to a total power capacity of 7,930 MW by 2030). China is
helping Pakistan in producing plutonium at Chinese built Khushab reactor and will
also sell 8 submarines worth $5 billion, which will give a quantum jump to Pak
Navy’s sea capability.

Possibility of India making another somersault after finding the dicey US Asia-
Pacific pivot less attractive and China’s policy of peace and friendship more
beneficial cannot be ruled out. However, this strategic shift will take place only
when China agrees to give preference to India over Pakistan (as had happened in
1990 when the US ditched Pakistan and befriended India).

11- Pakistan’s Travails:

Pakistan has remained under a dark star for a long period. It has bravely sailed
past the period of trials and tribulations but at a very heavy cost. Pakistan has
acted as the frontline state against the Soviets and against global terrorism and
suffered enormously, but in the process it allowed China 35 free years to develop
and prosper unobtrusively.

12- Changing Geo-Political Environment:

Geo-political scenario is fast changing and things are brightening up for Pakistan
after its long rocky journey. China has entered into a new era of geo-economic
relationship with Pakistan and plan to boost two-way trade from current $12
billion to $20 billion. Pak-Afghan relations have dramatically improved. ISI and
NDS have inked intelligence sharing agreement. Afghanistan and China no more
listen to India’s song of terrorism emanating out of Pakistan.

Pakistan wisely deciding not to take part in Yemen war has helped in improving
Pak-Iran relations. Possibility of revival of IPL project and its extension up to China
has brightened up after gradual lifting of US sanctions on Iran. Russia is warming
up to Pakistan and establishing military ties with it. China and Russia are strategic
partners and boosting their respective strategic ties with Iran. Pakistan is likely to
be inducted as member of the SCO and possibly member of BRICS.

Internally, Pakistan economic indicators and GDP are improving; foreign exchange
reserves are rising and inflation is down. Railway has gone in profit for first time.
Energy crisis is being tackled earnestly. The leaders and the led are on one page to
deal with scourge of terrorism on war footing. The world is fast changing its
negative opinion about Pakistan and it is now being looked at with respect.
Pakistan flags are being routinely hoisted in occupied Kashmir; IDPs are returning
to South and North Waziristan, and so are Afghan refugees.

China has risked investing so much of amount in Pakistan since it is convinced of

the genuineness of the Pakistani claim of a paradigm shift in its approach to
terrorist groups. This change has come as a consequence to across the board
Operation Zarb-e-Azb in FATA and spectacular successes achieved against
terrorists of all hues including the Uyghur.
The Silk Road Economic Belt will not only connect and develop China and Pakistan
but also the regional countries for the first time and promote peace. This
phenomenon will be against India’s aggressive chemistry.

13- Pakistan’s Expected Gains:

a. CPEC has opened vista of great opportunities for Pakistan and will greatly help
in overcoming poverty, unemployment, inequities of smaller provinces and help
Pakistan in becoming the next Asian tiger.

b. CPEC from all counts will prove a game changer and will make China a real
stakeholder in Pakistan’s stability and security. It is a win-win situation for both. It
will greatly expand the scope for the sustainable and stable development of
China’s economic development.

c. Investments by China will boost Pakistan’s $274 billion GDP by over 15 %.

d. Corresponding progress and prosperity in Pakistan and China’s patronage will

help Pakistan in getting rid of the decade old labels of ‘epicentre of terrorism’,
‘most dangerous country’ and a ‘failing state’.

e. Given the solid foundations of friendship at the people-to-people level between

China and Pakistan, Chinese influence in Pakistan is destined to endure the test of
time.
f. Pakistan seems to have found a saviour in China, which has promised to stand
by the country in its dark hour. Once Pak-China connectivity strike roots,
Pakistan’s geo-strategic security interests whenever threatened will be guarded
by China.

g. China’s investment surpasses all foreign investments in Pakistan in the past.

Win-win cooperation is based on trust, confidence and convergence of interests.
The Chinese influence in Pakistan has touched an unprecedented high level and it
has surpassed the US which has remained the most preferred ally since 1954.

h. The US which has repeatedly betrayed Pakistan and is widely disliked by the
public will have to negotiate with Pakistan harder than ever from now onward.
The elites under the magic spell of the US are also inclined to change their
western oriented mindset and change their orientation.

j. Pakistan enjoys a more favorable fiscal budget situation compared to India by

reducing its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP in 2014 (as against India’s 7%) and
Pakistan is much cheaper as an emerging market.

k. China’s economic and military assistance will help Pakistan a great deal in
narrowing its ever widening gap in economic-military-nuclear fields with India and
in bettering its defence potential.

l. Keeping strategic parity with India has now become an achievable goal for
Pakistan.
m. Revival of economy in the coming period is bound to make Pakistan an
attractive destination for foreign investors and will greatly help in removing socio-
economic inequities of smaller provinces and in squeezing the space for anti-
Pakistan elements.

n. The success of the Sino-Pak partnership is critically linked to the success of

stabilization of the Afghan situation. China and Pakistan have a shared interest in
the stabilization of Afghanistan, because the main threat to the realization of the
“Belt and Road” projects in Pakistan come from the terrorist groups operating out
of the Af-Pak region.

o. Pakistan is far more comfortable with China as a facilitator of the Afghan peace
talks than it is with the US, whose intentions are highly suspect.

p. China’s investment in Pakistan has conveyed a big message to the other South
Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal to hurry and climb on board
the Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative” to derive growth benefits.

q. Pakistan’s gravitation in the direction of China and Russia at this juncture

underscores a strategic realignment in the making.

r. China is uniquely placed to pull the key regional states – Russia, Iran, Central
Asian states to its side.

14- Efforts to Scuttle CPEC:

Strategic economic moment for Pakistan has arrived and interesting part is that
Pakistan has assumed the position of economic pivot for the whole region. This
paradigm shift in circumstances is a cause of great worry for the enemies of
Pakistan both within and outside. India, Iran, UAE, Gulf States, Israel, US are
unhappy. For India, CPEC is a thorn in its paw

They have put their heads together to work out new strategies how to block the
forward march. RAW has opened a special office in Delhi and has been allotted
$300 million to disrupt CPEC. Already one can notice sudden upsurge in acts of
terror in the three restive regions and activation of certain NGOs and think tanks
all trying to air misgivings and create fear psychosis.

ANP, Baloch nationalists, PkMAP raised serious objections on the routes of CPEC
and alleged these have been changed. Even PTI and JUI-F showed inclinations to
climb the bandwagon of anti-CPEC forces. Objections were being raised despite
assurances by the government that no change has been made.

15- Controversies Raised in CPEC:

Eastern route benefits Punjab and Sindh and bypasses major portion of
Baluchistan and KP.

In their view, western route is original route, conceived in 2006 and is shortest.

CPEC not transparent and kept under wraps.

Three-route theory is a cover story to hide change of route.

Eastern route is six-lane motorway.

Western route is 1-2 lane roads.

Orange Line Train project is from CPEC allocations.

Special Economic Zones are inequitably distributed.

Eastern route is unsafe being close to Indian border.

16- Government’s Stance:

No original route in existence before 2013.

CPEC project director Maj Gen Zahir Shah stated that no document is in existence
showing original route; hence changing of original route doesn't arise.

Western route will be developed as motorway by extending Kashgar-Karakorum

Highway.

Work on three routes has started simultaneously.

15 year project has short/mid/long term projects.

Government and China wished to first develop eastern route due to factors of
security, better infrastructure and early completion.

Western route will be a long term project since it is uninhabited, insecure, time
consuming.

Provincial capitals will be nodes of CPEC.

Orange Line project is Punjab project funded by Punjab govt.

Proposed 16 industrial zones not yet finalised.

Development of backward provinces is high priority of govt.

Power projects are more in KP, followed by Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan
respectively.

17- Ramifications:
Political consensus, security and law and order are pre-requisites for early
completion of CPEC

China has other options to exercise if Pakistan fails to deliver.

Pakistan cannot afford to lose this golden opportunity.

Successive govts will have to remain focused and committed to completion of

projects in hand.

Provinces should focus on industrial parks, energy projects instead of routes.

Trade routes are not developed on basis of ethnicity but on basis of convenience
and requirements.

There is skepticism that administrative, technical and operational capacity of

workforce and staff of Pakistan employed in CPEC may not match the Chinese
efficiency/commitment, and also fail to absorb huge investment productively.

18- Actions in hand:

Operations in restive areas have been geared up.

Agenda of NAP has been expedited, although not satisfactorily.

10,000 strong Special Security Division has been created to provide foolproof
security.

APC was held on May 13 to remove misgivings on CPEC. Another meeting was
held on May 28 and in this consensus was achieved after PM agreed to develop
western route first.

Special Parliamentary Committee has been formed to address complaints.

Working groups will be formed in July and economic zones decided in

consultation with provinces.

No funds will be transferred from CPEC allocations for Orange Line project. China
will however gift additional funds to complete this project in two years.

19- Conclusion:

The CPEC connected to Gwadar has the potential to radically alter the regional
dynamics of trade, development and politics. CPEC is a game changer for the
entire region. It will uplift the lives of about 3 billion people across China, Central
Asia, South Asia and the Middle East.
The time and tide is not in favor of the detractors. They will die their death in the
hurricane of CPEC since China is determined to make Pakistan a success story. $46
billion economic package is Chinese gift for people of Pakistan.

2020
by Fozia Sadiq Khan

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/619270-cpec-and-the-state-of-the-economy

There are loud noises over the perceived mismanagement of the economy by the
present government. In this environment, it is worthwhile to review the relevant
literature.

Economist Shahid Javed Burki’s Institute (the Burki Institute of Public Policy) has
recently launched its 12th annual report on ‘The State of Economy’. It has some
chapters written by Burki himself and others by his co-authors. We are going to
refer to certain parts of this report in this article.
The report in the beginning gives credit to the PTI government for being different
from “patron-client and dynastic politics” (that is debatable), yet it states that the
government’s accountability drive and its financial austerity measures are the two
“unwritten policies” that have resulted in a decline of private and public
investment in the country. These policies have affected the economy negatively
and GDP growth has gone below 3 percent from slightly over 5 percent in FY2018
(before the PTI government took over).

The PML-N government was able to grow the economy on average around 5
percent, yet this growth did not lead to better human development outcomes in
terms of social sectors such as health and education. The PML-N government also
supervised decline in exports – despite the availability of GSP Plus – and an
increasing current account deficit.

In the PTI government, inflation has risen as the consumer price index (CPI) is
likely to increase to 7.3 percent from 3.9 percent in FY2018. Similarly, both the
public and private fixed investment will go down to 13.8 percent from 15.1
percent in FY2018. Fiscal management is not looking promising either with an
expected budget deficit of 8.9 percent of the GDP having increased from 6.6
percent the year earlier.

The only achievement that the government can claim is reduction in current
account deficit to 4.8 percent of GDP from FY2018’s 6.3 percent and it has been
done by containing imports. In other words, Pakistan “is grappling with soaring
inflation, a crippling balance of payments crisis, a depreciating currency and poor
export performance”.

However, a real contribution of the report is its continued focus on CPEC. It has
also comprehensively discussed various aspects of CPEC and its relevance to the
economy. Five out of nine chapters of the report analyze CPEC, written by various
co-authors.

One strong point made in the last chapter on CPEC is that the government has
reserved information on CPEC and there is a veil of secrecy around CPEC. There is
a dire need for an effective communication strategy. If the government wants to
build investor confidence and wants Pakistani entrepreneurs to be active
collaborators in Special Economic Zones (SEZs) as part of CPEC, then its needs to
provide timely information and maintain transparency. This sharing of
information needs to be done in a systemized and planned manner.

CPEC is also analyzed from the Chinese point of view. The overall message is that
the Chinese government is pursuing a policy to develop its western regions. China
is moving people from its over-crowded eastern part to the sparsely populated
western part. China’s western provinces (geographically close to Pakistan) do not
have adequate potential to meet its food needs. Pakistan can export vegetables,
fruits, animal products, and dairy to help them meet their demand.

The report recommends some short, medium, and long-term measures for the
government of Pakistan to tap the CPEC potential fully, considering that CPEC is
enlisted to go on till 2030. In the short term (2020-2022), Pakistan should focus on
exporting horticulture, high value crops and livestock. The focus should be on
“production and processing” facilitated by the development of technology and
jointly conducted research.

In the medium term (2022-2025), the Pakistan government should develop its
agro-industry and focus on industrialization through the avenue of SEZs. It should
integrate with the global value chain at the regional level, and speed up income
generation through the commercialization of agriculture.
In the long term (2025-2030), Pakistan needs to focus on joint ventures and
investments and expand into corporate farming. There is further need to
integrate with global value chains and facilitate relocation of the ‘traditional’
manufacturing sector of China to Pakistan.

The Preferential Trade Agreements are useful if both sides have equal access to
each other’s markets, and they help to deepen economic integration. In the
immediate future, Pakistan can for example concentrate on the cultivation of
Chinese rice that has increasing demand.

Similarly, an improved governance structure is needed to develop global value

chains. Farmers in Pakistan need to be given an incentive to work on ‘climate
smart’ agriculture. There is also the need to take into account the nature of global
value chains as some of them require more intensive contracting work that may
be complex to handle.

Looking beyond CPEC, the report – like other economic analyses – recommends
increasing domestic investment to around 25-30 percent of national income as it
is way too low right now. This increase in domestic savings and investment is
needed for a higher growth of the economy. Moreover, there is a need to develop
new sectors of the economy. There is equal emphasis to increase exports based
on production. Another message is to focus on the development of urban areas.
Pakistan is believed to under-count and not fully develop its urban areas.

There is a need to focus on high-value crops in agriculture, turn the SME sector to
be part of global supply chains, and train the large young population in the
modern sectors of information technology, healthcare, finance, higher education,
and tourism.

The writer is an Islamabad-basedsocial scientist.

Humane authoritarianism, anyone?

FOR many visiting functionaries, today’s China is a source of awe.

Notwithstanding the irresistible charm of the country’s authoritarian rule
(specifically for political elite) and growth, it’s worth discussing what policy
lessons it holds for countries that aim to mirror its economic growth in the
coming decades. Beware, when it comes to lessons, some can be learned whereas
some must be unlearned.

Many Western analysts denigrate China’s economic achievements under the

premise of the extractive nature of its institutions and suggest that the
Communist Party rule and sustained economic growth will ultimately prove
mutually exclusive. And those who celebrate its sizzling GDP growth want the
developing world to emulate this model of state-led growth. Naturally, the latter
comprises mainly of politicians representing dysfunctional, developing states. For
that, they believe, is a recipe for success and, when given the “right
environment”, they can pull off a great growth miracle.
However, when the heads of representative democracies bemoan the
nonexistence of the ‘Chinese model’ in their country, it represents their craving to
wield power on the lines of the Communist Party of China (CPC). They may think
that their poor governance is rooted in an inability to turn things round on a whim
while, in fact, the opposite is often true. The impunity of our former rulers —
most attributable to the nonelected lot — encouraged them to take steps that
impaired the nation-building exercise badly.

The foundational principles of the state of Madina delegitimise authoritarian rule.

For our country, with its fragile institutions, the desire for the Chinese model is far
from ideal. It draws on a rudimentary understating of China’s success in poverty
alleviation — not necessarily synonymous with human development — and the
number of officials jailed on corruption charges. It’s chilling for its disregard of our
sociopolitical realities, which must be the foremost priority of a democratic setup.
Most worryingly, it underlines the ruling elite’s failure to comprehend a basic
lesson from our history: Every time a ruler forced an intervention from outside
the constitutional framework, it caused insurmountable harm.

China may have some lessons for economies around the world, more so the
Global South. It is, however, important for those nations to be cognisant of their
own needs and limitations. They ought to understand contemporary China in the
context of its economic and political institutions and its compatibility with their
indigenous modes of governance. Pakistan’s current rulers, who aspire to emulate
the state of Madina, may ponder how exactly the foundational principles of that
state and authoritarianism would play out together.
In China’s institutional setting, the CPC holds ultimate supremacy and has
economic institutions as its subordinates. Broadly speaking, the performance of
the latter can be categorised in two phases. The first under Mao’s chairmanship,
during 1949-1976, and the second as post-Mao era. Maoism boosted the national
economy from $60 billion in 1960 to $154bn in 1976 but is marred with the dire
consequences of political decisions to introduce the Great Leap Forward and the
Cultural Revolution. This phase is characterised by multiple cycles of boom-and-
bust and human tragedies.

Despite widespread miseries, dissent wasn’t tolerated within the CPC, let alone
from the outside. Deng Xiaoping, a decorated military general, fell out of Mao’s
favour and was targeted by the radical Red Guards for suggesting economic
alternatives outside the Marxist-Leninist mould. Mao’s death in 1976 created a
vast power vacuum since he had accumulated enormous authority. A power
struggle ensued within the CPC and at this defining moment in China’s history,
Deng prevailed over the Maoists.

In the following years, Deng spearheaded sweeping economic reform, which were
embraced by Western democracies. In the backdrop of the Cold War — and due
grossly to a distorted worldview on their part — Western leaders argued that
economic prosperity will drive the country out of the communist fold. That hope
was nipped in the Tiananmen Square in 1989 but, unsurprisingly, Western
corporations lobbied their governments into oblivion within a matter of few
years. The global capitalist establishment flocked communist China in its pursuit
of cheap, frail labour and imperfect environmental regulations. Since the CPC had
a firm grip over economic resources, namely land, labour and capital, Western
openness helped the party extract more value and solidify its iron grip further.

China’s growth story is incomplete without contextualising external factors that

helped catalyse it. Secondly, the probability of Maoists outmanoeuvring Deng was
same in which case the CPC, and hence the Chinese nation, would have stayed the
Maoist course. Thirdly, perhaps most importantly, authoritarianism is fraught
with fragilities. Its unipolar view of human society considers dissent as a ‘force of
evil’ and justifies suppression. It draws legitimacy from conformism, as defined by
a select few, rather than empathy. Its playbook lacks tools to deal with diversity
of thoughts and beliefs. Today’s Hong Kong and Xinjiang offer befitting case
studies in this regard.

We Pakistanis shall find these lessons easy to grasp. For instance, Ayub’s aid-
fuelled growth enriched the political and business elites of West Pakistan but
fostered a sense of alienation in East Pakistan. The legitimacy of their demand for
provincial autonomy and democratic rule was enshrined in the very movement
for a separate homeland for the subcontinent’s Muslims. Ayub’s authoritarian
measures yielded the most painful chapter of our history in no time. Despite a
commendable job of salvaging national dignity and placing Pakistan among the
leaders in the Muslim world during the 1970s, Bhutto’s authoritarian instincts
orchestrated his misadventures in Balochistan and resentment towards political
opposition from across the country.

Quite frankly, we remain devoid of resilient institutions that uphold values of

equity, justice and accountability, which partly explains our rulers’ disoriented
views about governance and economic policy. More than anything, we should
cultivate a development discourse within the framework provided by the
Constitution and strengthen our elected institutions at local, provincial and
national levels. Maybe that road to redemption is long. But it’s the one that offers
sustainable solutions and may lead us to reflect some traits of the enviable state
of Madina, whose rules weren’t written in the language of compulison, but
compassion.

The writer is an analyst.

Twitter: @sohaibrmalik

Published in Dawn, October 28th, 2019

China’s HR record

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1514162?ref=whatsapp

Dawn Editorial

HUMAN rights should be beyond politics, as conscientious individuals must call

out abuse anywhere in the world regardless of political proclivities. Unfortunately,
it is the cold calculations of realpolitik that actually determine how states react to
human rights situations. The recent UN debate on human rights in China,
particularly in its Xinjiang region, is a prime example of how politics can shape
stances on fundamental rights. Twenty-three states, mostly Western countries,
slammed Beijing for its alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang targeting the
region’s native Uighur population, as well as other Muslim groups. A British
statement urged China to refrain from “the arbitrary detention of Uighurs and
members of other Muslim communities”. In reaction, geopolitical allies of China,
including this country, shot back praising Beijing’s “remarkable achievements in
the field of human rights”. Over 50 states supported China, praising it for
“promoting human rights through development”. It is true that many Western
states quickly pounce on geopolitical rivals, yet remain considerably muted when
allies are accused of rights abuses. On the other hand, China’s allies are willing to
look the other way just to benefit from the economic clout of the People’s
Republic.

Beyond politics, the fact is that rights abuses anywhere must be condemned
unconditionally. This country has rightly highlighted Indian atrocities in India-held
Kashmir, though many Muslim states have kept quiet just to curry favour with
New Delhi. Similarly, the situation in Xinjiang needs the attention of Muslim
states. China is indeed an ally, therefore diplomatic channels need to be used to
communicate the fact that the people of Xinjiang must be able to freely practise
their faith. Perhaps delegations from Muslim states and international human
rights groups should tour Xinjiang to see first-hand how the Uighurs are treated.
Moreover, China itself would greatly benefit by opening up Xinjiang and letting
the Uighurs and other Muslim communities take part in their religious and
cultural practices freely. Terrorism is a legitimate concern, but cracking down
unnecessarily on people’s way of life will only breed more alienation.

Published in Dawn, November 1st, 2019

"Chinese papers" by Dawn Editorial

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1517710?ref=whatsapp

IT’S there in black and white, 403 pages of a chilling prescription to erase the
identity and ‘reprogramme’ the thinking of Chinese Muslim minorities — a
dystopian ‘1984’ playing out in real life. Even more unfortunate, it now seems
clear the strategy emanates from the very pinnacle of the Chinese government. A
trove of internal documents from within the secretive Communist Party of China
shared with the New York Times by an anonymous whistleblower has thrown a
spotlight on the thought process that underlies the brutal repression of Muslim
ethnic minorities, mainly Uighurs, and their mass detentions in ‘re-education
camps’. They reveal a government that conflates extremists with peaceful,
observant Muslims in China — religious persecution in its purest form. Among the
pages are texts of secret speeches allegedly by President Xi Jinping laying out the
security offensive against extremism in Xinjiang province. In one of them, “a
period of painful, interventionary treatment” for those “infected” by “extremism”
is advocated; in another to “…show absolutely no mercy”. The leaked documents
also contain a guide for officials to use when dealing with queries from anxious
Uighur youth when they find their family members missing: their relatives, the
officials are instructed to say, were “infected” by the “virus” of Islamist radicalism
for which they were required to be quarantined and cured. Moreover, Uighurs
unwilling to accept the ‘official’ version of the situation should be cautioned their
behaviour could prolong the detention of their family member/s.

For some time, accounts have been appearing in the Western media of a Uighur
community under siege, and the detention camps in which as many as a million of
them may be incarcerated. The stories have often been downplayed or dismissed
as propaganda, usually by countries with high stakes in the world’s second-largest
economy. China has denounced the exposé as an attempt to discredit its efforts
against extremism which it has portrayed as a resounding success in Xinjiang —
presumably as a result of a policy that is indeed entirely lacking in mercy.
Significantly, however, it has not disputed the documents’ veracity. That makes it
much more difficult to affect ignorance about the atrocities being inflicted on the
Chinese Muslims. Like many other countries, Pakistan too has a spotty human
rights record, but when it can speak out against the human rights violations of the
Kashmiris and the Rohingya, can it stay silent about the Uighurs?

Published in Dawn, November 20th, 2019

"Looking forward to a new chapter of China-

Pakistan friendship" by Yo Jing

- https://tribune.com.pk/story/2129264/6-looking-forward-new-chapter-china-
pakistan-friendship/?amp=1

Time flies and we are in the year 2020. At this wonderful moment of welcoming
the third decade of the 21st century, I, on behalf of the embassy of the People’s
Republic of China in Pakistan, would like to extend my sincere New Year greetings
to all Pakistani friends.
The year 2019 is of great historical significance for China’s development. Over 1.4
billion Chinese people celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC.
Over the past 70 years, under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of
China, we have adhered to the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and
have scored remarkable achievements. China’s GDP has broken the threshold of
90 trillion yuan ($13.6 trillion USD) in 2018, a great leap forward from over 60
billion yuan ($12.3 billion USD) in 1949. The GDP per capita has increased from
119 yuan (23 dollars) to 64644 yuan (9732 dollars). China now stands firmly as the
world’s second-largest economy. Over 700 million people have been lifted out of
poverty.

In 2019, China fulfilled its international responsibility and injected positive energy
into the international community. With major changes occurring in the world,
China adheres to the principles of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation,
holds high the banner of multilateralism, stabilises relations with major powers,
vigorously promotes mutually beneficial cooperation with neighboring and
developing countries, continues to lead the global governance process and
actively promotes regional peace and stability.

China successfully hosted the second ‘Belt and Road’ forum for international
cooperation and advocated for open, green, and inclusive development with a
view to achieving high-quality and high-standard cooperation under the ‘Belt and
Road Initiative’ keeping the people’s well-being in focus. On the international
stage, China has become the mainstay for maintaining world peace and stability,
and the main force for promoting global development and prosperity.

2019 was also a year of the great development of Pak-China relations. This year
Prime Minister Imran Khan visited China twice and met with President Xi Jinping
three times. The two sides exchanged experience and ideas on building a strong
Pak-China community with a shared future in the new era as well as jointly
constructing the Belt and Road with high quality and made a series of significant
achievements.

Over the year of 2019, we have strengthened our mutual trust, mutual
understanding and supported each other on issues related to our core interests.
China firmly supports Pakistan in safeguarding its national sovereignty, territorial
integrity and security, and highly commends Pakistan’s efforts to combat
terrorism and extremism. China and Pakistan jointly safeguard the important role
of the UN Charter in international relations, oppose unilateralism and bullying,
uphold international justice, and promote regional peace and stability.

Over the year, we have deepened bilateral cooperation in various fields and
connected the Belt and Road Initiative with the ‘Naya Pakistan’ vision. The China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has progressed smoothly. We focused on
social-economic, industrial and agricultural cooperation. We have finalised 27
priority projects of social development under the CPEC of which 17 will be
launched in the first half of 2020. The second phase of the Free Trade Agreement
between China and Pakistan comes into effect on January 1, 2020, and Pakistan’s
exporting products such as leather, cotton and garment products will enjoy zero-
tariff entry into China’s market. A large number of Chinese enterprises have
actively invested and established branches in Pakistan, covering textile
processing, tire manufacturing, motorcycle production, agricultural plantation,
steel and etc. It will help Pakistan to enhance its manufacturing and exporting
capacity, and bring more job opportunities.

Over the year, we have promoted people-to-people exchanges and continued to

strengthen the foundation of friendship between the two countries. 2019 is the
year of Sino-Pak local cooperation and we have established 16 local-to-local
partnerships. We have imported Pakistani films like ‘Parwaaz Hai Junoon’,
provided training to the Pakistani table tennis team in China and invited the
Pakistani cricket team to visit China. At present, 5 universities in Pakistan have
established Confucius Institutes and 58 universities have joined the CPEC
University Consortium. Nearly 30,000 Pakistani students are studying in China
with more than 7,000 scholarships.

2020 will be a landmark year of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
China will complete its thirteenth Five-Year Plan, eliminate absolute poverty
completely and build a moderately prosperous society in all respects. 2020 will
also be a historical year to usher in a new chapter of win-win cooperation
between China and Pakistan. As an iron brother, Pakistan will always be the prior
partner in China’s external relations.

China and Pakistan will strengthen mutual support and strategic cooperation. As
good neighbors, good friends, good partners and good brothers who share weal
and woe, we will continue to build upon our mutual trust with the guidance of
high-level exchanges, deepen coordination and cooperation on major strategic
issues, promote exchanges of governance experience, support each other on
issues involving our respective core interests and major concerns and firmly
safeguard sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national dignity.

China and Pakistan will enhance cooperation to achieve common development.

We continue to promote the high-quality development of the CPEC. We will
deepen cooperation in trade and investment, support the development of
manufacturing industry in Pakistan, increase employment and expand exports,
and help Pakistan to accelerate integration into the international industrial chain.
China would like to increase technology transfer to Pakistan and expand
cooperation with Pakistan in areas such as environmental protection, climate
change, and water resources management.
China and Pakistan will encourage more people-to-people contacts. In 2020,
China will provide 1,800 training opportunities to Pakistan, help build and
upgrade more than 50 schools, 50 vocational training centers and 30 hospitals in
all areas of Pakistan. We will provide 20,000 scholarships for Pakistan students in
the next 3 years. Both sides will hold the 2nd Forum on local-to-local Cooperation
between China and Pakistan and carry out more cultural activities. China
welcomes more Pakistani friends to visit China, learn more about Chinese culture
and promote mutual understanding between two civilisations.

China and Pakistan will consolidate international cooperation to work for regional
peace. The two countries will strengthen coordination and cooperation on major
international and regional issues, jointly safeguard the purposes and the
principles of the UN Charter, support multilateralism and win-win cooperation,
and highlight the representation and voice of developing countries on
international affairs.

Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan once

observed that only through united efforts can we turn our ideas into reality.
Today, China and Pakistan both shoulder the historic mission of achieving national
rejuvenation while realising the great dream of building a prosperous country and
a better society. Let’s work together to seize the opportunities, overcome the
challenges, pursue common development and build upon the Pak-China all-
weather strategic cooperative partnership towards a community of a shared
future.
"Sell more to China" by Hassan Khawar

- https://tribune.com.pk/story/2131615/6-sell-more-to-china/?amp=1

The beginning of the year 2020 marks a new turn in China-Pakistan economic
relations, with the operationalisation of the second phase of the China Pakistan
Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA-II). The agreement has immediately abolished
tariffs for Pakistan on 313 products, while a total of 75% of the tariff lines will be
liberalised over the next decade. This will significantly improve access to the
Chinese market for Pakistani exports. A wide variety of products are covered
under these concessional tariffs including textiles, garments, seafood, meat,
leather, chemicals, plastics and footwear. In addition, the FTA has improved
safeguard mechanisms for protection of the domestic industry in Pakistan,
introduced a safety valve against future balance of payment crises, and included
enforcement of electronic data exchange to avoid mis-declaration and under-
invoicing of imports from China.

Pakistan is an exports-starved country, running huge trade and current account

deficits that in turn have pushed it to repeatedly seek IMF bailouts. Trade deficit
with China alone contributed 34% to Pakistan’s overall trade deficit in 2018-19
and was equivalent to 78% of the country’s current account deficit. Now the
world’s largest import market, which happens to share a border with us, has
provided us competitive access to the majority of its two trillion dollar export
market. Shouldn’t this be a game changer for Pakistan? The candid answer is “it
depends”.
Let’s first look at what happened with the first phase of Pak-China Free Trade
Agreement that was signed in 2006. The exports to China did increase thereafter,
but not as much as the imports, leading to Pakistan’s swelling trade deficit with
China.

Was it a badly negotiated agreement? Well, it could have been negotiated better.
For instance, only one product from Pakistan’s top 20 garment exports was given
category-1 concession with 0% tariff, whereas none of Pakistan’s top exports was
covered under category-2, with tariffs of 0-5% in five years.

But that was not the only problem. The FTA did offer 0% tariff on 35% of the
products in five years. Yet by 2012, Pakistan’s exports to China concentrated only
on 6% of the products enjoying 0% tariff, depicting marginal use of this
competitive access owing to a narrow export base. Moreover, soon after the FTA
was signed, the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area was created, granting much more
lucrative concessions to ASEAN countries, thereby eroding Pakistan’s comparative
advantage. Lastly, the non-tariff barriers also prevented exports in many
categories.

While the CPFTA-II is much better negotiated, without substantial domestic

efforts many of the granted concessions will at best result in export diversion
rather than an absolute export increase. What we need is an increase in
manufacturing capacity, coupled with enhanced competitiveness, trade
facilitation and information dissemination. In many cases, the non-tariff barriers
would have to be worked out as well. Besides new capacity, we also need to aim
for export sophistication, moving on to higher value-added products. Moreover,
the free trade agreement should not be looked at in isolation and rather in
conjunction with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Not only has CPEC
improved connectivity with China, but the special economic zones, under the
CPEC, should also be used to attract investment in targeted sectors and products
for which the FTA is expected to boost demand.

The private sector also has to play its part. Building a new market requires
exploring new customers, investing in research and development, overcoming
language barriers and making new partnerships. With entrepreneurs as
trailblazers, the government should follow the private sector’s lead and address
technical barriers to trade in promising areas.

If we are serious about benefitting from the FTA and CPEC, the industrial, trade
and investment policies should all have a single focus: how we can sell more to
China.