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From mid-May 2021, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in updated public RTDs
2,044,374.1
health guidance, announced that fully vaccinated people no longer needed to wear a
face mask or social distance from others in most settings. Exceptions when people Spirits
2,171,439.4
should still wear masks included in a healthcare setting or at a business that requires
them as well as on planes, buses, trains and other public transportation. Wine
3,124.3
From late 2020, vaccines were being approved and rolled out in the US. Although this -5% 25% 50%
process will take some time to complete, it is expected to help bring the virus under CURRENT % CAGR % CAGR
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 30,248.1
increasingly better control during 2021. Many states began to reduce restrictions as a YEAR % 2015-2020 2020-2025
result. As of 23 May 2021, half of US citizens had received their first vaccination, with GROWTH
40% having received both vaccinations.
Chart 3 Alcoholic Drinks Impact of Soft Drivers on Off-Trade Volume Sales: 2018-2025
Chart 4 Alcoholic Drinks Impact of Soft Drivers on On-Trade Volume Sales: 2018-2025
MARKET BACKGROUND
Legislation
Legal purchasing age and legal drinking age
The legal purchasing age for alcohol in the US is set at 21 in all 50 states.
Establishments that serve alcohol to underage drinkers face stiff penalties, ranging
from fines to the loss of their selling licences. As a result, most establishments
enforce strict age verification policies for all consumers deemed to be 35 years old or
younger. However, youngsters frequently circumvent this practice by acquiring fake
identification, buying these documents on the black market, or by having older
individuals purchase their alcohol for them. The Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) have estimated that a 10th of all alcohol consumed in the US is by
those under the age of 21.
All 50 states have set their legal purchasing age at 21, although nearly all have at
least some exemptions. They fall into eight major types: on private, non-alcohol-
selling premises, with parental consent (29 states); on private, non-alcohol-selling
premises without parental consent (six states); for religious purposes (26 states); for
medical purposes (16 states); for government work-related purposes (four states);
for educational purposes (11 states); when reporting medical need due to underage
drinking for another minor (17 states); and on alcohol-selling premises with parental
approval (10 states).
While any state is technically free to change its drinking age, since President Ronald
Reagan signed a law in 1984 threatening any state that moved its age lower than that
with a loss of federal highway funding none has done so. A movement known as the
Amethyst Initiative gained traction and headlines in 2008 for proposing moving the
drinking age back down to 18, but, after some initial publicity, it all but died out.
There is now no serious prospect of the drinking age moving below 21 in the near
future.
Drink driving
Drink-driving legislation is set at the state level so, as with most aspects of American
Advertising
The alcohol industry largely regulates itself when it comes to advertising. The
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has regulatory authority over the industry’s
marketing, but rarely steps in unless an advertisement makes an untruthful claim.
States have the ability to restrict alcohol advertisements, but a 1996 Supreme Court
case has set the precedent that states cannot restrict truthful advertising claims
made by the alcohol industry, which has kept their ability to do so in practice
limited. State-level attempts at regulation have been tried in the years since, but
federal courts have struck down laws in California and Missouri recently on First
Amendment grounds, showing the difficulty that states have in this area. That means
that the industry is mostly governed by the ethical standards set out by the Beer
Institute, Wine Institute or Distilled Spirits Council, depending on the product in
question.
Spirits marketing, for example, is based on the Distilled Spirit Council’s “Code of
Responsible Practices”, a detailed and regularly updated document regarding
permissible and impermissible advertising practices. A key theme is the “71.6%
standard”, which is the percentage of adults of legal drinking age who should be in
the intended audience of any advertisement, whether it be a television commercial,
print advertisement or at a public venue (this figure represents the percentage of
the US population that was of legal drinking age as of the most recent national
census). Marketing near schools, using cartoon characters or with actors not at least
25 years of age are also all forbidden.
Other generally taboo practices include associating alcohol consumption as
necessary for social inclusion, depiction of visibly intoxicated individuals, overly
sexual content, and any form of health claims. As these guidelines are somewhat
vague it is not unusual for advertisements to push the established boundaries.
The informal ban on making health claims is one that is coming under pressure from
changes in the industry. As health and wellness trends become more important to
consumers, brands are seeking to set themselves apart by positioning themselves as
healthier options. This has begun to generate some pushback. The US Alcohol and
Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) issued a newsletter in August 2020 expressing
concern with the rise in the number of health-linked alcohol advertisements. Hard
seltzers and so-called “clean wine” have been at the forefront of this issue, although
the problem touches on all major categories. The emerging hard kombucha space is
in a particularly difficult spot as brands try to position their products as a healthier
option at the bar without making any overt and specific health claims suggesting
their product is objectively healthy and therefore running afoul of any government
agencies.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has also become involved. Consumer
groups also wrote a letter to the FDA in early 2021 accusing Molson Coors’ new hard
seltzer Vizzy of violating FDA guidance put out in 2015 that states alcoholic drinks
fortifying their products with added nutritional content is inappropriate
(advertisements for Vizzy prominently tout that the seltzer contains Vitamin C). The
FDA has not taken any action yet, but even if Vizzy does not have to modify its
advertisements it is unlikely to be the last brand to run into trouble.
Another issue that will grow in the coming years is a changing social media
landscape. The industry has largely worked out how to advertise on larger platforms
like Facebook and Instagram without infringing any standards, but the most
explosive growth of any major social media platform in recent years is TikTok, which
currently bans any alcohol marketing because of its young user base. The number of
adults on the platform is rising though and may eventually cross the 71.6% threshold,
potentially opening it up to alcohol marketing. Snapchat’s decision, another youth-
orientated platform that gradually became more mainstream, to open up to alcohol
advertising proved difficult to navigate. This experience may keep enthusiasm for
Smoking ban
Currently, 27 states have state-wide bans on smoking in public places that cover all
workplaces, including bars and restaurants, and all 50 have at least some level of
restrictions on indoor smoking. Only 12 states allow smoking in bars without any
significant restrictions and even fewer allow it in restaurants. These laws are
increasingly being updated to include e-cigarettes. A total of 16 states now include
these devices in their general smoking bans. This is one of the few updates being
made to these laws and no state has passed a new general ban on public smoking for
nearly a decade.
Federal regulations on public smoking in the US are limited primarily to a smoking
ban on flights. In addition, smoking is not permitted in federal buildings or in
childcare facilities that receive federal funds.
Opening hours
On-trade establishments
Excise tax
Beer
Beer from a domestic Firs t 60,000 Over 60,000 up
brewer that brews hectolitres to 2,000,000
2,000,000 barrels or less hectolitres
per calendar year
USD2.98 USD13.64
Firs t 6,000,000 Over 6,000,000
hectolitres hectolitres
Sparkling Wine Firs t 300 Over 300 up to 1,300 Over 1,300 up to Over 7,500
hectolitres hectolitres 7,500 hectolitres
hectolitres
Artificially Sparkling USD60.76 USD63.40 USD73.04 USD87.18
Naturally Sparkling USD63.40 USD66.04 USD75.69 USD89.82
Hard Cider Firs t 300 Over 300 up to 1,300 Over 1,300 up to Over 7,500
hectolitres hectolitres 7,500 hectolitres
hectolitres
Derived from apple/pear USD4.33 USD4.49 USD5.10 USD5.97
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Contraband/parallel trade
Contraband trade is virtually non-existent in the US. With the exception of
“moonshining” – illegal distilling which is still prevalent in the American Deep South
– the US government does not recognise or prosecute any significant contraband
alcohol trade. As of 2007, formerly illegal absinthe has been approved for sale in the
US if the product is classified as thujone-free, ie measuring less than 10ppm thujone.
COVID-19 has not resulted in any notable growth in contraband alcohol in the US.
Duty free
Duty-free sales of alcoholic drinks are minimal compared to total US sales of
alcoholic drinks. Duty-free purchases are limited primarily to duty-free shops in the
international terminals of large airports, or at border crossings. These retail spaces
are significantly smaller in both size and selection than those found in Europe, Asia
Pacific and Latin America. In addition, there are no large duty-free zones readily
available to Americans in the way that Andorra and various international ferry lines
are to Europeans. Due to decreased border crossings during the pandemic, many
duty-free stores in airports and at land border crossings experienced closures. Duty-
free sales fell as a result.
Cross-border/private imports
Parallel trade in the US is negligible due to fairly similar tax and price levels across
the country. Some parallel trade occurs on a private level between neighbouring
states, where one state has a restricted distribution environment, and between
Mexico – where prices are generally lower – and border states.
Outlook
The US alcoholic drinks industry has seen widespread innovation driven by consumer
desire for new flavours, the rising importance of health and wellness, and a
premium craft positioning. One of the most dynamic categories is RTDs, with hard
seltzers in particular absorbing increasing share within the market. 2020 saw further
adoption of the trend by major manufacturers. Some of the most popular brands
within this product area have been standalone offerings, but, with hard seltzers
encroaching on light beer sales, major manufacturers have come out with seltzer
brand extensions of popular beers such as Coors Light and Bud Light.
A similar trend can be seen within non-alcoholic beer. This category has also seen
high growth rates, attracting consumer interest as a health-focused alternative that
does not compromise on flavour. Non-alcoholic beer was revitalised as a category by
smaller producers and recently popularised by the launch of Heineken 0.0. Now,
major manufacturers are catching onto the trend, with Budweiser and Sam Adams
releasing non-alcoholic brews.
In spirits, most new product launches rely on premium position and a story-based
advertising campaign. Celebrity endorsements have also proved a popular tactic to
drive a brand’s story. In 2020, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson launched Teremana
tequila with great success.
DISCLAIMER
Forecast and scenario closing date: 3 May 2021
Report closing date: 25 May 2021
Analysis and data in this report give full consideration to the impact of COVID-19 on
consumer behaviour and market performance in 2021 and beyond. However, the
situation continues to develop rapidly, and the influence and severity of the pandemic
are constantly evolving. For the very latest insight on COVID-19 and its impact on
industries and consumers, at both global and national level, readers can access strategic
analysis and updates on www.euromonitor.com and via the Passport system, where
new content is being added on a systematic basis.
SOURCES
Sources used during the research included the following: