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Probability Trees

Probability trees are used to display probabilities along branches to show different outcomes of random events. They differ from standard tree diagrams in this way. To calculate probabilities on a probability tree: - Multiply probabilities along branches using the product rule - Add probabilities for different ways to get the same outcome using the addition rule

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Joseph Histon
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628 views7 pages

Probability Trees

Probability trees are used to display probabilities along branches to show different outcomes of random events. They differ from standard tree diagrams in this way. To calculate probabilities on a probability tree: - Multiply probabilities along branches using the product rule - Add probabilities for different ways to get the same outcome using the addition rule

Uploaded by

Joseph Histon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
  • Introduction to Probability Trees: Introduces the concept of probability trees, highlighting the difference from tree diagrams and setting the foundation for understanding probabilities along branches.
  • Probability Trees With Replacement: Explains how probability trees work with replacement, using tree diagrams and probability examples to simplify understanding and prediction of outcomes.
  • Probability Trees Without Replacement: Describes the method of using probability trees without replacement, demonstrating changes in calculation and outcome predictions with diagrams.
  • Examples of Probability Calculations: Provides step-by-step probability calculations for various scenarios using probability trees to calculate specific events or outcomes.

Probability Trees

Probability trees are different to Tree diagrams as they display


probabilities along the branches.
Probability trees
▪ A probability tree differs from a tree diagram in that the relevant probabilities are written
along the branches.
▪ We must multiply probabilities along the branches to find P (E ), this is the product rule.
▪ We must also add the different ways of getting the same P (E ), this is the addition rule.
Consider again choosing 3 balls at random from a bag containing two red balls and one blue ball:

Tree diagram With replacement Probability tree With replacement


R RRR
• P (RBR)
2
R R
B
RRR
RRB 3
R RRR
R
R
R
RRR
RRR
• P (RBR) = 4 2
R B = 212
R B
R
RRB
RBR 27
3 1
3
RRB
3 3 3
B
R RBR
R 2 4
B
R
RBB
RRR
• P (3same) =
9 2 3 R RBR =
27
R R RRR
27 3
1
B
3
B
B RRB
1
1
RBB
=
R RRR

R
3
R R
B
RRR
RRB 3 2 • P (same)
R RBR 2 3
R BRR
B R
B
RBR
RBB
1
3 3 R = P (RRR)+ P (BBB)
R BRR
B 1
B BRB
R
(3
= 222 + 111 ) (3 )
R BRR 3
B BRB

B
2
R
R BRR
1 3
R BBR 3 3 3 3
B
R BRR
3
=1
B BRB
R BBR
B R
B
BBR
BBB
1
3 B BBB 3
Consider again choosing 3 balls at random from a bag containing two red balls and one blue ball:

Tree diagram Without replacement Probability tree Without replacement

1
B RRB
R • P (RBR) = 2
1
1
R B RRB 2 1 1
R B R RBR
6 2
• P (RBR) = 3  2  1
=1 2
R 1
R B RRB 3 1 1
R =1
R
3
2 B RBR 3
B R RBR • P (same) = 0
• P (same) = 0
1
R R BRR
B 3
B R R BRR
2
R R BRR 2
1
1

▪ The probability tree is distinguished from a tree diagram by the probabilities on the branches.
▪ The successive probabilities are often written as raw fractions though final probabilities are
expressed as fractions in simplest form.
▪ As we can see, the use of a probability tree, rather than a tree diagram, often simplifies the
process of setting out the different outcomes of the sample space.
Examples
1. One card is drawn from each of two packs.
Use a probability tree diagram to find the probability that:
(a) both cards are picture cards,
(b) neither card is a picture card,
(c) one card is a picture card and the other is not.

• There are 4 × 3 picture cards = 12 picture cards.


• Thus, 52 cards – 12 picture cards = 40 other cards.

12 9
52
12 12

52 52
= 9
169
(a) P(PP) = 169
12
100
52
40 12 40
 = 30
(b) P(PP ) = 169
52 52 52 169
START (c) P(one picture card)
= P( PP) + P(PP )
12
52
40 12
 = 30
52 52 169
40 30 30
52 = 169 + 169
40 40 40
 = 100 60
52 52 52 169 = 169
2. A bag contains 3 red, 4 white and 7 blue marbles.
Two marbles are simultaneously drawn at random from the bag:
Find the probability of drawing out a red and a white marble in these cases.

Drawing two marbles simultaneously implies without replacement.

2 R RR
13

R
4
W RW ∴ P(a Red and a White)
13
3
14
7
13 B RB = P(RW) + P(WR)
( 14 ) ( 14 )
3
13
R WR = 34 + 43
4 3 13 13
START W 13
W WW
= 6 + 6
14
7
13 B WB 91 91
7
= 12
3
14 13
R BR
91
4
B 13
W BW
6
13 B BB
3. A bag contains six white marbles and four blue marbles. Three marbles are drawn in succession.
At each draw, if the marble is white it is replaced, and if it is blue, it is not replaced.
Find the probabilities of drawing:
(a) no blue marbles, (b) one blue marble,
(c) two blue marbles, (d) three blue marbles.

6 27
10 W WWW 125
6
10
W 18 (a) P(no blue marbles) = P(WWW)
4
10
B WWB 125
27
6
W 6 4 = 125
10 4
9 W WBW 25
10 B 2
3 B WBB
START
9 25 (b) P(one blue marble)
6
= P(WWB) + P(WBW) + P(BWW)
8
9 W BWW 45
6 W 18 4 8
4
10
9 3
9
B BWB
4
45
= 125 + 25 + 45
B 6 1 542
3
8 W BBW 10 = 1125
9 B 1
2 B BBB 30
8
3. A bag contains six white marbles and four blue marbles. Three marbles are drawn in succession.
At each draw, if the marble is white it is replaced, and if it is blue, it is not replaced.
Find the probabilities of drawing:
(a) no blue marbles, (b) one blue marble,
(c) two blue marbles, (d) three blue marbles.

6 27
10 W WWW 125
6
10
W 18 (c) P(two blue marbles)
4 B WWB
W
10
6
125
= P(WBB) + P(BWB) + P(BBW)
6 4
10 4
9 W WBW 25 = 2 + 4 + 1
10 B 2
25 45 10
3 B WBB
= 121
9 25
START
6 8 450
9 W BWW 45
4
6
9
W 4
3 B BWB
(d) P(three blue marbles) = P(BBB)
10 45
9
B 6 1
3
8 W BBW 10 = 1
9 B 1
30
2 B BBB 30
8

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