Probability Tree

Diagrams
 What is a Probability Tree Diagram?

A probability tree diagram shows all the possible events.

The first event is represented by a dot.

From the dot, branches are drawn to represent all possible outcomes of the event.

The probability of each outcome is written on its branch.

Example
Probability

Branch
0.5 Head

0.5
Tail Outcome
Example
We can extend the tree diagram to two tosses of a coin

Head
0.5

0.5 Head
0.5 Tail
0.5 Head
0.5
Tail

0.5
Tail
A coin is tossed twice, what is the
probability that:
a. It lands on head twice
b. It lands on tail at least once.  
𝑃 ( 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 h𝑒𝑎𝑑 )=0.5 ×0.5
c. It lands on a head and a tail  
𝑃 ( 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 h𝑒𝑎𝑑 )= 0.25

Head
0.5  
𝑃 ( 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 )=1 − 𝑃( 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 h𝑒𝑎𝑑)
0.5 Head  
𝑃 ( 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 )=1 − 0.25
0.5 Tail  
𝑃 ( 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 ) =0.75
0.5 Head
0.5
Tail
 
𝑃 ( h 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡 ) = 𝑃 ( h ,𝑡 ) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 (𝑡 , h)
0.5
Tail
𝑃 ( h 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡 ) =( 0.5 ×0.5 ) +(0.5× 0.5)
 

 
𝑃 ( h 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡 ) =0.5
A box contains 4 red and 2 blue chips. A chip is drawn at
random and then replaced. A second chip is then drawn at
random. Show all the possible outcomes using a probability
tree diagram. Calculate the probability of getting:
a. At least one blue
b. one red and one blue
  2
c. two of the same colour
3
Red 𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑏 ) =1− 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑 )
 

  2
Red  
2 2
3
  23
1  
Blue (
𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑏 ) =1− ×
3 3 )
Red
  5
  1 3 𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑏 ) =
Blue 9
3
  1
Blue
3
A box contains 4 red and 2 blue chips. A chip is drawn at
random and then replaced. A second chip is then drawn at
random. Show all the possible outcomes using a probability
tree diagram. Calculate the probability of getting:
a. At least one blue
b. one red and one blue
c. two of the same colour 𝑃 ( 1𝑟 ∧1 𝑏 ) =𝑃 ( 𝑟 ,𝑏 )+ 𝑃 (𝑏 , 𝑟 )
 

  2
Red
3  
2 1 1 2
  2
3 Red (
𝑃 ( 1𝑟 ∧1 𝑏 ) = × + ×
3 3 3 3 )( )
1  
Blue
  23   4
3 Red 𝑃 ( 1 𝑟 ∧1 𝑏 ) =
  1 9
Blue
3
  1
Blue
3
A box contains 4 red and 2 blue chips. A chip is drawn at
random and then replaced. A second chip is then drawn at
random. Show all the possible outcomes using a probability
tree diagram. Calculate the probability of getting:
a. At least one blue
b. one red and one blue
c. two of the same colour 𝑃 ( 2 𝑜𝑓 𝑡h𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟 )=𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) + 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒)
 

  2
Red
3  
2 2 1 1
  2
3 Red (
𝑃(2 𝑜𝑓 𝑡h𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟 )= × + ×
3 3 3 3 )( )
1  
Blue
  23   5
1 3 Red 𝑃 ( 2 𝑜𝑓 𝑡h𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟 )=
 
Blue
9
3
  1
Blue
3
Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are black. If three balls are drawn at
random, without replacement, represent this information on a probability tree and calculate
the probability that:
a. All balls withdrawn are black
b. Two red balls and one black ball is withdrawn.
c. No black balls are withdrawn

0/8 Red
Red
1/9
8/8 Black   8 7 6
2/10 Red Red 𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 ) = 10 × 9 × 8
1/8
8/9 Black Black  7
1/8
7/8 𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 ) =
2/9 Red Red 15
8/10
Black 7/8 Black
7/9 2/8 Red
Black
6/8 Black
Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are black. If three balls are drawn at
random, without replacement, represent this information on a probability tree and calculate
the probability that:
a. All balls withdrawn are black
b. Two red balls and one black ball is withdrawn.
c. No black balls are withdrawn

0/8 Red
Red 𝑃 ( 2 𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑏 ) =𝑃 ( 𝑟𝑟𝑏 )+ 𝑃 ( 𝑟𝑏𝑟 )+ 𝑃 (𝑏𝑟𝑟 )
 
1/9
8/8 Black
2/10 Red Red
1/8
8/9 Black
  1
Black 𝑃 ( 2 𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑏 ) =
1/8
7/8 15
2/9 Red Red
8/10
Black 7/8 Black
7/9 2/8 Red
Black
6/8 Black
Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are black. If three balls are drawn at
random, without replacement, represent this information on a probability tree and calculate
the probability that:
a. All balls withdrawn are black
b. Two red balls and one black ball is withdrawn.
c. No black balls are withdrawn

0/8 Red
Red
1/9
8/8 Black
 
𝑃 ( 𝑛𝑜 𝑏 ) = 𝑃 (𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑 )
2/10 Red Red
  2 1
1/8 𝑃 ( 𝑛𝑜 𝑏 ) = × ×0
8/9 Black Black 10 9
7/8
2/9 1/8 Red  
𝑃 ( 𝑛𝑜 𝑏 ) =0
8/10 Red
Black 7/8 Black
7/9 2/8 Red
Black
6/8 Black
 Alan,Ben and Carl fire one shot each at a target, their probability of hitting the target are
respectively. If they Fire together, find the probability that:
a. All three shots hit the target
b. Only Carl’s Shot hits the target
c. At least one shot hit the target
d. Exactly 2 shots hit the target
Carl
Ben 1/3 Hit
Alan Hit
1/4
2/3 Miss   1 1 1
1/5 Hit Hit 𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑙𝑙 h𝑖𝑡 ) = × ×
1/3 5 4 3
3/4 Miss Miss
2/3   1
1/4 1/3 Hit 𝑃 ( 𝑎𝑙𝑙 h𝑖𝑡 ) =
4/5 Hit
Miss
60
2/3 Miss
3/4 1/3 Hit
Miss
2/3 Miss
 Alan,Ben and Carl fire one shot each at a target, their probability of hitting the target are
respectively. If they Fire together, find the probability that:
a. All three shots hit the target
b. Only Carl’s Shot hits the target
c. At least one shot hit the target
d. Exactly 2 shots hit the target
Carl
Ben 1/3 Hit
Alan Hit
1/4
2/3 Miss
 
𝑃 ( 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝐶 h𝑖𝑡𝑠 )= 𝑃 ( 𝑀𝑀𝐻 )
1/5 Hit Hit
1/3   4 3 1
3/4 Miss Miss 𝑃 ( 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝐶 h𝑖𝑡𝑠 )= × ×
2/3 5 4 3
1/4 1/3 Hit
4/5 Hit
Miss 2/3
  12 1
Miss 𝑃 ( 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝐶 h𝑖𝑡𝑠 )= 𝑜𝑟
1/3 60 5
3/4 Hit
Miss
2/3 Miss
 Alan,Ben and Carl fire one shot each at a target, their probability of hitting the target are
respectively. If they Fire together, find the probability that:
a. All three shots hit the target
b. Only Carl’s Shot hits the target
c. At least one shot hit the target
d. Exactly 2 shots hit the target
Carl
Ben 1/3 Hit
Alan Hit
1/4
2/3 Miss
 
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 h𝑖𝑡 ) =1− 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠)
1/5 Hit Hit
1/3
3/4 Miss
 
4 3 2
1/4 Hit
1/3
2/3
Miss
Hit
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 h𝑖𝑡 ) =1− (
× ×
5 4 3 )
4/5
Miss 2/3 Miss
  36 3
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 h𝑖𝑡 ) = 𝑜𝑟
3/4 1/3 Hit 60 5
Miss
2/3 Miss
 Alan,Ben and Carl fire one shot each at a target, their probability of hitting the target are
respectively. If they Fire together, find the probability that:
a. All three shots hit the target
b. Only Carl’s Shot hits the target
c. At least one shot hit the target
d. Exactly 2 shots hit the target
Carl
 
Ben 1/3 Hit
Alan Hit
1/4
2/3 Miss  

1/5 Hit Hit

1/3
3/4 Miss Miss
2/3
1/4 1/3 Hit
4/5 Hit   2 3 4
Miss 2/3 Miss 𝑃 ( 𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 2 h𝑖𝑡𝑠 )= + +
60 60 60
3/4 1/3 Hit
Miss   9 3
2/3 Miss 𝑃 ( 𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 2 h𝑖𝑡𝑠 )= 𝑂𝑅
60 20
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability of one event occurring with some
relationship to one or more other events.

 
Raymond either walks to college or goes by the bus. Which he does depends on the
weather. If it rains the probability that he take the bus is Whereas if its fine the
probability that he takes the bus is The probability of rain on any particular day is What is
the probability that:
a. It rains and he takes the bus.
b. On a day chosen at random he takes the bus.

 
Note: is the probability of A occurring given the
condition of B
 Raymond either walks to college or goes by the bus. Which he does depends on the
weather. If it rains the probability that he take the bus is Whereas if its fine the
probability that he takes the bus is The probability of rain on any particular day is What is
the probability that:
a. It rains and he takes the bus.
b. On a day chosen at random he takes the bus.

B  
𝑃 ( 𝑅 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝑅 )× 𝑃 (𝐵 ∨ 𝑅 )
4/5

1/6 R
  1 4
𝑃 ( 𝑅 ∩ 𝐵 )= ×
1/5 B’ 6 5
1/4 B
  4 2
5/6 𝑃 ( 𝑅 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑂𝑅
R’ 30 15
3/4
B’
 

Note
 Raymond either walks to college or goes by the bus. Which he does depends on the
weather. If it rains the probability that he take the bus is Whereas if its fine the
probability that he takes the bus is The probability of rain on any particular day is What is
the probability that:
a. It rains and he takes the bus.
b. On a day chosen at random he takes the bus.

4/5
B  
𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) = ( 𝑃 ( 𝑅 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵|𝑅 ) ) +¿
R
 
1 4 5 1
1/6
1/5 B’
𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= (
6
×
5
+
6
×) (
4 )
1/4 B
  41
5/6 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )=
R’ 120
3/4
B’
 

Note