STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Module #2

Name:
Grade Level and Strand:

Lesson Title: Probability of a Random Variable

Lesson Objectives: At the end of the lesson, students will be able to know:
1) Illustrate the properties of discrete random variables.
2) Compute probabilities corresponding to a discrete random variable; and
3) Illustrate the probability mass function of a continuous variable.
Reference: De Guzman, D. (2017). Statistics and Probability. C & E Publishing Inc.

Course Notes:

Properties of Discrete Random Variable

A discrete random variable is defined by its probability density function.
Outcome of an experiment Probability of each outcome
𝑥1 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥1)
𝑥2 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥2)
𝑥3 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥3)
𝑥4 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥4)
The sum of the probabilities of a discrete random variable is always equal to 1. That is,
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖) = 1.

Illustrative Examples:
1. Below is a discrete probability distribution.
𝑿 1 3 4 5 10
𝑃(𝑥) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.25
a. What is the range of the variable 𝑋?
The range of 𝑋 is {1,3,4,5,10}. The probability is 1; that is;
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) + (𝑃(𝑋 = 10)
= 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.15 + 0.25
= 1.0
b. What is 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2)?
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 0.3
c. What is 𝑃(3 < 𝑋 < 6)?
𝑃(3 < 𝑋 < 6) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = 0.1 + 0.15 = 0.25

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Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution is a probability distribution with only two possible outcomes: success
and failure.
Let 𝑝 be the probability of success, 𝑞 be the probability of failure, and 𝑛 be the number of trials
performed during an experiment of getting 𝑥 successes. The probability of getting 𝑥 successes out of
𝑛 trials is given by
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ⋅ 𝑝𝑥 ⋅ 𝑞𝑛−𝑥
The probability mass distribution function of a binomial distribution is given by
𝑿 Success Failure
𝑷(𝒙) 𝑝 𝑞
where 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1.

Illustrative Examples:
1. Consider tossing 6-sided die three times. Determine the probability that 4 will turn up:
a) 0 times
b) Once
c) Twice
d) Thrice
Solution:
1
Let 𝑝 = probability that 4 will turn up, 𝑝 = ;
6
5
𝑞 = probability that 4 will not turn up, 𝑞 = ; and
6
𝑛 = 3 tosses
a) 0 times
Since 𝑥 = 0, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶0 = 1.
Using the formula 𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ⋅ 𝑝𝑥 ⋅ 𝑞𝑛−𝑥,
1 0 5 3−0 125 125
𝑃(0) = 3𝐶0 ( ) ( ) = (1)(1) ( )=
6 6 216 216
b) Once
3!
Since 𝑥 = 1, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶1 = = 3.
1!(3−1)!
1 1 5 3−1 1 25 75
𝑃(1) = 3𝐶1 ( ) ( ) = (3) ( ) ( ) =
6 6 6 36 216
c) Twice
3!
Since 𝑥 = 2, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶2 = 2!(3−2)! = 3.
1 2 5 3−2 1 5 15
𝑃(2) = 3𝐶2 ( ) ( ) = 3( )( ) =
6 6 36 6 216
d) Thrice
Since 𝑥 = 3, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶3 = 1.
1 3 5 3−3 1 1
𝑃(3) = 3𝐶3 ( ) ( ) = 1( )(1) =
6 6 216 216
Note that the total probability is equal to 1, that is,
125 75 15 1 216
𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) = + + + = =1
216 216 216 216 216

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 This confirms one of the properties of discrete random variables—that the sum of the
probabilities must be equal to 1.

2. A basketball team has to play three games during the elimination round of a tournament.
What is the probability that they will win:
a) games
b) 1 game
c) 2 games
d) All 3 games
Solution:
1
Let 𝑝 = probability of winning the game, 𝑝 = ;
2
1
𝑞 = probability of not winning the game, 𝑞 = ; and
2
𝑛 = 3 games
a) Winning 0 games means 𝑥 = 0.
Since 𝑥 = 0, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶0 = 1.
Using the formula 𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ⋅ 𝑝𝑥 ⋅ 𝑞𝑛−𝑥,
1 0 1 3−0 1 1
𝑃(0) = 3𝐶0 ( ) ( ) = (1)(1) ( ) =
2 2 8 8
b) Winning 1 game means 𝑥 = 1.
3!
Since 𝑥 = 1, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶1 = = 3.
1!(3−1)!
1 1 1 3−1 1 1 3
𝑃(1) = 3𝐶1 ( ) ( ) = (3) ( ) ( ) =
2 2 2 4 8
c) Wi
3!
Since 𝑥 = 2, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶2 = 2!(3−2)! = 3.
1 2 1 3−2 1 1 3
𝑃(2) = 3𝐶2 ( ) ( ) = 3( ) ( ) =
2 2 4 2 8
d) Thrice
Since 𝑥 = 3, 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 3𝐶3 = 1.
1 3 1 3−3 1 1
𝑃(3) = 3𝐶3 ( ) ( ) = 1 ( )(1) =
2 2 8 8
Note that the sum of the probabilities is equal to 1. In symbols,
1 3 3 1
∑𝑃(𝑥) = + + + = 1
8 8 8 8

3. Five friends attended the volleyball varsity team tryouts. What is the probability that only 3 of
them will be selected if 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠) = 60% and 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒) = 40% for each of them?
Solution:
Let 𝑛 = 5 and 𝑥 = 3.
5!
Using 𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ⋅ 𝑝𝑥 ⋅ 𝑞𝑛−𝑥, where 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 5𝐶3 = 3!(5−3)! = 10, we have
𝑃(3) = 5𝐶3𝑝3𝑞5−3 = (10)(0.6)3(0.4)2 = 0.3456 or 34.56%

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Probability Density Function of a Continuous Random Variable
Unlike the discrete random variable, a continuous random variable takes on an infinite number
of values, thus making it impossible to present in tabular form.
For continuous random variables, a formula and a graph of probability mass (or density, in this
case) function are utilized to illustrate the probability values.
The probability histogram that graphically represents the probability mass function of a discrete
random variable is replaced by a shaded, smooth curve graphically represents the probability density
function of a continuous random variable. Like the combined areas of the bars in the probability
histogram, the area bounded by the curve above the 𝑥-axis is equal to 1 responding to probability of
100%.
The following are examples of graphs of probability density function.

Illustrative Examples:
2𝑥+1
1. In a given continuous random variable, its probability density function is 𝑓(𝑥) = where 0 ≤
42
𝑥 ≤ 6.
a. Find the area between 𝑥 = 3 and 𝑥 = 6.
b. Find the probability of getting 4 or lower.
Solution:
2𝑥+1
a. If 𝑓(𝑥) = , then
42
2(3)+1 7 2(6)+1 13
𝑓(3) = = and 𝑓(6) = =
42 42 42 42

Thus, the problem can simply be solved by getting the area of the shaded trapezoid.
1
Area = (sum if heights)(base)
2
1 7 13
= ( + ) (3)
2 42 42
5
= or 71.43%
7

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 b. To get 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 4) we first get 𝑓(4).
2(4)+1 9
𝑓(4) = = .
42 42
2(0)+1 1
Since 𝑓(0) = = , then 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 4) is
42 42
1 1 9
Area = ( + ) (4)
2 42 42
10
= or 47.62%
21

Notes:
1. The range of 𝑥 is from 0 to 𝑛, that is,
0≤𝑥≤𝑛
The least possible value of 𝑥 is 0 and the greatest value of it is 𝑛.
𝑛!
2. The combination formula is just equal to 𝐶 = .
𝑛 𝑥 𝑥!(𝑛−𝑥)!

3. For the factorials (!), 𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1) … (2)(1). For example, 5! = 5(4)(3)(2)(1). You will
continuously multiply decreasing numbers until you reach 1. But note that 0! = 1.

4. For the probability density function of a continuous variable, if the given function is linear, then
the bounded region will be a shaded trapezoid. To solve for its probability, you will only solve
for the area of the shaded trapezoid.

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Activity
Direction: Find what is asked. Write your answers in a separate sheet of paper and show your
complete solution.

1. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare deadly disease is 40%. If 15 people are
known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
a. Exactly 10 will survive?
b. At most 10 will survive?
c. At least 10 will survive?

2. Find the probability that in tossing a balanced coin three times,

a. No head will appear
b. Three heads will appear
𝑥+5
3. Consider the probability density function defined by 𝑓(𝑥) = , 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 10.
100
a. Find 𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 5)
b. Find 𝑃(7 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 10)

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