STA 308: Chapter 4

PROBABILITY

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Outline

Basic Concepts

Marginal and Joint Probabilities

Conditional Probability

Independence

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Basic Concepts

Experiment

I Experiment is a process that results in a single outcome.

I The outcome that occurs cannot be predicted with certainty.

Sample Space
The sample space of an experiment, denoted S, is the set of all possible
outcomes of that experiment.

Example
I Coin toss: S = {head, tail}
I Die toss: S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
I Dow Jones Index: S = {Increase, Decrease, Same}

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Event
A sub-collection of distinct outcomes of that experiment, denoted by a capital letter
such as A.
Actual outcome can not be predicted in advance, but can assign probabilities to
(possible) outcomes.

Probability
A generalization of the concept of percentage

Probability of event A = P(A)

fA
=
N

where fA is the number of outcomes in event A and N is the total number of events in
sample space S.

Example
Dow Jones doesn’t increase: A = {Decrease, Same}

2
P(A) =
3

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Summary

Math Concept Probability Concept

∅ Empty set Impossible event
S Sample Space Certain event (sure to happen)
Ac Complement A does not occur
A occur, or B occur, or
A∪B Union
both A and B occur
A∩B Intersection Both A and B occur
Disjoint or If A occurs, then it is impossible
A∩B =∅
mutually exclusive for B to occur, and vice versa

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Venn Diagram
A sample space together with selected events is often displayed with a
Venn diagram, where
I Sample space - depicted as a rectangle
I Events - disks inside the rectangle

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Example
Tossing a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Event A: Even numbers → A = {2, 4, 6}
Event B: Less than or equal to 3 → B = {1, 2, 3}

I Complement event of A → Ac = {1, 3, 5}

# outcomes in Ac 3
P(Ac ) = = = 0.5
# outcomes in S 6
I A union B → A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} Same value (2) occurs once!!

# outcomes in A or B 5
P(A ∪ B) = = ≈ 0.83
# outcomes in S 6
I A intersect B → A ∩ B = {2}

# outcomes in both A and B 1

P(A ∩ B) = = ≈ 0.17
# outcomes in S 6

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Mutually Exclusive
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they do not have
outcomes in common.

A ∩ B = {} = ∅

I A intersect Ac → A ∩ Ac = {} = ∅

# outcomes in both A and Ac 0

P(A ∩ Ac ) = = ≈0
# outcomes in S 6

events A and Ac are mutually exclusive.

I A union Ac → A ∪ Ac = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

# outcomes in A or Ac 6
P(A ∪ Ac ) = = ≈1
# outcomes in S 6

A ∪ Ac is ALWAYS the sample space.

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Some Rules of Probability
1. Probabilities are between 0 and 1inclusive!!

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

2. Probability of sample space is 1 and that of an impossible event is 0.

P(S) = 1 P(∅) = 0

3. General Addition Rule

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive (P(A ∩ B) = 0), then the general addition
rule can be simplified to

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

4. Complement Rule

P(A) = 1 − P(Ac ) or P(Ac ) = 1 − P(A)

rule 2 always rule 3

hint: 1 = P(S) = P(A ∪ Ac ) = P(A) + P(Ac )

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Example
As reported in Employment and Earnings, the age distribution of employed persons 16
years old and over is
Age Frequency Event
16-19 6500 A
20-24 12,138 B
25-34 32,077 C
35-44 35,051 D
45-54 25,514 E
55-64 11,739 F
65 & over 3,690 G
Total 126,709 (N)

An employed person is selected at random. Let the following events be defined

W = the person is between 20 and 64
Y = the person is under 65
Describe each of the following events in words and determine the probabilities.

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a. (not Y)
is the event that the person selected is at least 65 years old.

P(not Y) = P(Y c )
= P(At least 65)
= P(G )
= 3690/12709 = 0.0291

b. (Y)
is the event that the person selected is under 65 years old.

P(Y ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C ) + P(D) + P(E ) + P(F )?

Correct but too complicated! Use the complement rule.

P(Y ) = 1 − P(Y C )
= 1 − 0.0291 = .9709

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c. (not W)
is the event that the person selected is either under 20 or over 64.

P(W c ) =P(A or G )
=P(A ∪ G )
=P(A) + P(G ) A and G are mutually exclusive
=6500/126709 + 3690/126709
=.0804

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Outline

Basic Concepts

Marginal and Joint Probabilities

Conditional Probability

Independence

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 I So far, we focused on data obtained by observing values of one variable (eg.
age).
I Data obtained by observing values of two variables on the same unit are called
bivariate data.
I Frequency distributions of bivariate data is called a contingency table.

Example
Below is a contingency table providing the number of institutions of higher education
in the US by region and type.

Ri : Events associated with Region, for i = 1, 2, 3, 4.

Tj : Events associated with Type, for j = 1, 2.
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a. How many cells does this contingency table have?
#columns × #rows=2×4=8

b. What is the total number of institutions of higher education in the US?

3274 (Adding all values in the body table in blue)
c. How many institutions are in the Midwest? (R2 )
row sum: 359+504=863

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d. How many are public? (T1 )
column sum: 266+359+533+313=1471

e. How many are private schools in the South? (R3 ∩ T2 or T2 ∩ R3 )

the value in the intersection cell of row South and column Private: 502

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f. What is the probability that the higher education institution is in the Midwest?

#Midwest 863
P(R2 ) = = ≈ 0.2636
#Total 3274

P(R2 ) is called marginal probability as it only involves one variable.

g. What is the probability that the higher education institution is in the public?

#Public 1471
P(T1 ) = = ≈ 0.4493
#Total 3274

P(T1 ) is called marginal probability as it only involves one variable.

h. What is the probability that the higher education institution is in the public in
the Midwest?

#Public and Midwest 359

P(T1 ∩ R2 ) = = ≈ 0.1097
#Total 3274

P(T1 ∩ R2 ) is called joint probability as it involves more than one variable.

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Outline

Basic Concepts

Marginal and Joint Probabilities

Conditional Probability

Independence

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Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of A given that B has occurred is defined to
be
P(A ∩ B)
P(A|B) = ,
P(B)
provided P(B) > 0, which we will always assume in this class.
Important!!
I We know P(A ∩ B) = P(B ∩ A) and P(A ∪ B) = P(B ∪ A)
I But P(A|B) and P(B|A) are DIFFERENT!

The event before | is the event of interest

The event after | is the condition event which has happened

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Example
A joint frequency distribution for the number of injuries in the US by circumstance
and age is as shown in the following contingency table. Frequencies are in millions.

Si : Events associated with Region, for i = 1, 2.

Cj : Events associated with Type, for j = 1, 2, 3.

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a. Fill in the two empty cells
9.3 -8.0 = 1.3
21.4 -11.6 = 9.8
b. How many cells does the contingency table have?
3×2=6
c. Find the probability that an injured person was hurt at work. (C1 )
9.3
P(C1 ) = 61.4 ≈ 0.1515 marginal probability
d. Find the probability that the injured person is over 40 years old . (S2 )
25.8
P(S2 ) = 61.4 ≈ 0.4202 marginal probability
e. Find the probability that the injured person is over 40 years old and was hurt at
work.(S2 ∩ C1 )
1.3
P(S2 ∩ C1 ) = 61.4 ≈ 0.0212 joint probability
The two events are NOT mutually exclusive since P(S2 ∩ C1 ) > 0

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f. f. Given that an individual was hurt at work (C1 ), what is the probability that
the person is over 40 years old (S2 ). Obtain this probability directly from the
table.
Event of interest: S2
Condition event: C1
1.3
P(S2 |C1 ) = 9.3 ≈ 0.1398

conditional probability
g. Obtain P(S2 |C1 ) using the conditional probability rule and your answers from
part (c) and (e).
1.3
P(S2 ∩ C1 ) 61.4 1.3
P(S2 |C1 ) = = 9.3
= ≈ 0.1398
P(C1 ) 61.4
9.3

conditional probability

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Outline

Basic Concepts

Marginal and Joint Probabilities

Conditional Probability

Independence

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Independency
Two events A and B are said to be independent if

P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)

h. Are S2 and C1 independent? Explain.

From g, P(S2 |C1 ) ≈ 0.1398.
From d, P(S2 ) ≈ 0.4202
Since P(S2 |C1 ) 6= P(S2 ), the two events are not independent.

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By the conditional probability rule

P(A ∩ B)
P(A|B) =
P(B)

Multiplying both sides by P(B)

P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B) × P(B)

If A and B are independent, P(A|B) = P(A). Thus, we have the following alternative
way to check independency

Independency
Two events A and B are said to be independent if

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

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i. Obtain P(S2 |C1 ) using the multiplication rule and your answers from parts (c)
and (f).
P(S2 ∩ C1 ) = 0.0212
P(S2 ) × P(C1 ) = 0.4202 × 0.1515 = 0.0638
Since P(S2 ∩ C1 ) 6= P(S2 ) × P(C1 ), the two events are not independent.

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