Año Trimestre Utilidad neta (mill Promedio MovPMC FEP FTP

1 T1 34
2 2017 T2 41
3 T3 38 39.75 42.5 89.4117647 55.3846154
4 T4 46 45.25 47.625 96.5879265 53.8658217
5 T1 56 50 52.5 106.666667 52.347028
6 2018 T2 60 55 57.625 104.121475 50.8282343
7 T3 58 60.25 59.125 98.0972516 49.3094406
8 T4 67 58 55.75 120.179372 47.7906469
9 T1 47 53.5 52 90.3846154 46.2718531
10 2019 T2 42 50.5 48.375 86.8217054 44.7530594
11 T3 46 46.25 43.375 106.051873 43.2342657
12 T4 50 40.5 38.5 129.87013 41.715472
13 T1 24 36.5 35 68.5714286 40.1966783
14 2020 T2 26 33.5 32 81.25 38.6778846
15 T3 34 30.5 35.875 94.7735192 37.1590909
16 T4 38 41.25 46.625 81.5013405 35.6402972
17 T1 67 52 56.75 118.061674 34.1215035
18 2021 T2 69 61.5 66.25 104.150943 32.6027098
19 T3 72 71 31.0839161
20 T4 76 29.5651224
21 T1
22 2022 T2
23 T3
24 T4
a 59.9409965 1.03037389 50.041544118
b -1.51879371 -0.00374285 -0.183272059

FC Parcial FT Final Tabla de FEP

T1
2017
0.76736111 49.4917279 2018 106.666666666667
0.88414134 49.3084559 2019 90.3846153846154
1.00292227 49.1251838 2020 68.5714285714286
1.13372028 48.9419118 2021 118.061674008811
1.19906045 48.7586397
1.16654625 48.5753676 FEP Parcial 90.3846153846154
1.12379333 48.3920956 FEP Final 98.525641025641
1.08093169 48.2088235
1.00325516 48.0255515 Factorde ajuste Parcial 1.01142161872678
0.92291896 47.8422794 FA Final 1.00
0.87071871 47.6590074
0.82734618 47.4757353 I de T1 0.914169540003049
0.9742311 47.2924632 I de T2 0.87813349842945
0.97048825 47.1091912 I de T3 0.992176809913795
0.96674539 46.9259191 I de T4 1.21552015165371
0.96300254 46.7426471
0.95925969 46.559375
0.95551683 46.3761029 Pronostico Pronostico con Ciclicidad Pronostico sin Ciclicidad
46.1928309 45.65 30.1555335691247 31.192839155611
46.0095588 44.06 27.5703116754289 28.629531606357
45.8262868 44.32 29.5842792919005 30.840740699768
45.6430147 49.62 34.3384104343761 35.9370020361079

MAD
Tabla de FEP
T2 T3 T4
89.4117647058824 96.5879265
104.12147505423 98.0972515856237 120.179372
86.8217054263566 106.051873198847 129.87013
81.25 94.7735191637631 81.5013405
104.150943396226

86.8217054263566 98.0972515856237 120.179372

95.4715902402933 96.4353853746934 108.383649

I de T1 Final 0.99
I de T2 Final 0.96
I de T3 Final 0.97
I de T4 Final 1.09

Error con Ciclicidad Error sin Cimplicidad

36.8444664308753 35.807160844389
41.4296883245711 40.370468393643
42.4157207080996 41.159259300232
41.6615895656239 40.0629979638921

40.5878662572925 39.349971625539
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.61623969
Coeficiente d 0.37975136
R^2 ajustado 0.3177265
Error típico 7.34006743
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 329.863008 329.863008 6.12256658 0.0328574
Residuos 10 538.765898 53.8765898
Total 11 868.628906

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 59.9409965 5.63121481 10.6444166 8.94213E-07 47.393868 72.488125 47.393868
Variable X 1 -1.51879371 0.61380727 -2.47438206 0.0328574 -2.88644154 -0.15114587 -2.88644154
Superior 95.0%
72.488125
-0.15114587
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.09391648
Coeficiente d 0.0088203
R^2 ajustado-0.09029766
Error típico 0.15003935
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 0.00200328 0.00200328 0.08898795 0.77157403
Residuos 10 0.22511808 0.02251181
Total 11 0.22712136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 1.03037389 0.11510846 8.95133096 4.34468E-06 0.77389627 1.28685152 0.77389627
Variable X 1 -0.00374285 0.01254692 -0.29830848 0.77157403 -0.03169914 0.02421343 -0.03169914
Superior 95.0%
1.28685152
0.02421343
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.08910986
Coeficiente d 0.00794057
R^2 ajustado-0.06292082
Error típico 10.0951969
Observacione 16

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 11.4201402 11.4201402 0.11205774 0.74277598
Residuos 14 1426.78201 101.913001
Total 15 1438.20215

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 50.0415441 6.27824432 7.97062707 1.42933E-06 36.5760493 63.507039 36.5760493
Variable X 1 -0.18327206 0.54748892 -0.33475026 0.74277598 -1.35751901 0.99097489 -1.35751901
Superior 95.0%
63.507039
0.99097489