INVESTIGATION

Predicting Patterns
Parkfield, California, is located on the San Andreas
Fault and is known as the Earthquake Capital of the
World. It is the most highly monitored fault site in the
United States. The Parkfield Experiment is a long-term
project dedicated to understanding the region's
earthquakes and to finding ways to accurately predict
future events.

Observe the data below. This time line shows dates of significant Parkfield
earthquakes.

2004

1. What patterns can be observed from this data?

Students should observe that for this particular city, past

data indicates that an earthquake occurred approximately
every 20–30 years.

2. Another earthquake occurred in Parkfield after the 1966 earthquake. Analyze and
interpret the data given. Make a prediction about when the next earthquake in
Parkfield occurred.

According to this history, students may predict that the next

earthquake will have happened before 1996.
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3. Research when the next earthquake occurred in Parkfield after 1966 and record
the data on the timeline.
4. What does this data tell you about predicting earthquakes?

The specific time that an earthquake will occur is not

predictable. However, scientists can use data from past
earthquakes to predict the location of where an earthquake
may occur. Knowing the likely location does not reveal
the timing.

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warranty as to the effectiveness or safety of the activities if the full instructions, as set forth in the activities, are not followed as directed.
TEACHER SUPPORT
INVESTIGATION
Predicting Patterns
Prep: 5 min | Class: 15 min

Patterns
Students use a time line to find patterns in earthquake data.

Purpose
To investigate whether earthquakes can be predicted

Guide the Investigation

• If students have difficulty recognizing a pattern in the data, suggest that they focus on the
time interval between each earthquake.
• Point out that the time line shows the dates of significant Parkfield earthquakes. ASK: What
other information would be helpful for making a prediction about earthquake patterns in
Parkfield? Sample answer: data about the strength of past earthquakes, data about any
movement or activity along the fault
• After students make their predictions in question 2, tell them that the next earthquake
occurred in 2004. You could also choose to have students research to find this information.
• Students will find that the next earthquake after 1966 occurred in 2004.
• Invite volunteers to summarize their results. ASK: If another earthquake does not occur in
Parkfield for 50 years, can scientists assume that the area has a low risk of earthquakes?
Why or why not? Sample answer: Scientists cannot assume the area is no longer prone to
earthquakes because its past history indicates that it is in an earthquake zone and will likely
experience earthquakes in the future.

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Hill
McGraw-Hill Education cannot assume responsibility for changes made to these instructions. McGraw-Hill Education can make no representation or
warranty as to the effectiveness or safety of the activities if the full instructions, as set forth in the activities, are not followed as directed.