91037

910370
1
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Level 1 Mathematics and Statistics 2022

91037 Demonstrate understanding of chance and data

Credits: Four

Achievement Achievement with Merit Achievement with Excellence

Demonstrate understanding of chance Demonstrate understanding of chance Demonstrate understanding of chance
and data. and data, justifying statements and and data, showing statistical insight.
findings.

Check that the National Student Number (NSN) on your admission slip is the same as the number at the
top of this page.

You should attempt ALL the questions in this booklet.

Show ALL working.

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Check that this booklet has pages 2 – 20 in the correct order and that none of these pages is blank.

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YOU MUST HAND THIS BOOKLET TO THE SUPERVISOR AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION.

© New Zealand Qualifications Authority, 2022. All rights reserved.

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QUESTION ONE

(a) NIWA, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, has been collecting data on the
weather since 1992.
The November daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Auckland recorded in 2009 and 2019
are displayed below.

Auckland November Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

°C in 2009 and 2019
30

2009 2019

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Day

` (i) Using the data provided, what was the date when the daily temperature recorded was the
coolest?

(ii) Based on the 2019 data, what is the probability that there was a minimum temperature lower
than 10 °C on a randomly selected day in November?

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(iii) Compare the daily temperatures in 2009 and 2019.

• Clearly identify any significant features in this graph.
• Discuss any trends and unusual features that you notice in the graph.
• Provide evidence from the graph to back up your statements.
• Justify your answer using statistical reasons, giving at least THREE different supporting
statements.

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(b) The table below shows the daily average temperatures recorded in Auckland in 2019.

Less than Between More than

Total
17 oC 17 °C and 20 oC 20 oC

November 13 14 3 30
December 2 18 11 31
Total 15 32 14 61

(i) If one day in November and one day in December 2019 is randomly selected, find the
probability that both days were more than 20 °C.
Give your answer as a fraction or a decimal correct to 4 decimal places.

(ii) Based on this data from 2019, NIWA claims that the average temperature in November 2022
and December 2022 will be similar.

Comment on NIWA’s claim.

Justify your answer using statistical reasons, giving at least TWO different supporting
statements.

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QUESTION TWO

(a) The average annual temperature in New Zealand between 1909 and 2019 is recorded on the graph
below.
The average temperature from individual years is compared to the long-term average temperature.
The long-term average temperature is the average temperature between 1961 and 1990.
A year with its average temperature in red means that its average temperature was above the long-
term average.
A year with its average temperature in blue means that its average temperature was below the long-
term average. For example, in 1992, the average temperature was 1 °C below the long-term average
temperature.

New Zealand average temperatures each year

°C compared to the long-term average temperature
1.00

Average
temperatures
ABOVE the
long-term average
0.50

Baseline average
0.00
temperature
1961–1990

Average –0.50
temperatures
BELOW the
long-term average

–1.00

–1.50
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

(i) Based on the data displayed above, identify in which 10-year period the average temperatures
were all below the long-term average.

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(ii) Many newspaper articles have been published in recent years regarding the concern that
temperatures in New Zealand are rising.
Identify features from the graph that can be used as evidence to support this claim.
Justify your answer using statistical reasons, giving at least THREE different supporting
statements.

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(b) The graph below displays the relationship of average temperatures in °C between Wellington and
Auckland.
Each dot represents the average temperature for one year (in °C).

Average temperature from 1966 to 2019

14.0
13.8
Wellington temperature (°C)

13.6
13.4
13.2
13.0
12.8
12.6
12.4
12.2
12.0
11.8
14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6
Auckland temperature (°C)

(i) The highest average temperature for Wellington was recorded in 2019.

State the average temperature for Auckland in 2019.

(ii) The graph shows the average temperatures for the 54 years between 1966 and 2019.

If two years are randomly chosen between 1966 and 2019, what is the probability that the
Auckland average temperatures in both years are above 16 °C?
Show your working clearly.
Give your answer as a fraction or as a decimal correct to 4 decimal places.

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(iii) Describe and interpret at least two different features visible in the graph of “Wellington
Temperature” versus “Auckland Temperature” shown on the facing page.

(iv) How useful is this graph to predict the weather in Wellington and Auckland?
Justify your answer using statistical reasons, giving at least TWO different supporting
statements.

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QUESTION THREE

(a) The graph below compares the annual average temperatures recorded in Dunedin before 1980 and
after 1980.
Each dot represents the average temperature for one year (in °C).

Number of
Period Minimum LQ Median Mean UQ Maximum pieces of
data

After 1980 10.17 11.05 11.33 11.33 11.69 12.17 40

Before 1980 10.75 11.09 11.28 11.31 11.53 12.08 31*

*1952 has been removed from this dataset because no data of the average temperatures were
recorded for that year.

Dunedin Annual Average Temperature from 1948 to 2019

After 1980
Period

Before 1980

10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2
Temperature (°C)

(i) Calculate the Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) for the Dunedin average temperatures for “After
1980”.
Comment on how this value could be used in an analysis.

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(ii) Compare the distributions of the Dunedin average temperatures, before and after 1980.
Note any similarities and differences considering centre, shift, shape, spread; and provide
numerical evidence where appropriate.
In your answer, describe at least THREE different key features.

Question Three continues

on the following page.

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(iii) One Dunedin community group claims that New Zealand has not become hotter, since the
median temperatures before 1980 and after 1980 are very similar.

Comment on this claim, based on the sample of temperatures provided.

Justify your answer using statistical reasons, giving at least TWO different supporting
statements.

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(b) The graph below is from a 2020 story on the website of Radio New Zealand using data provided by
NIWA.
January February March April May June

July August September October November December

2020 Monthly Temperatures below average above

Compared to the Average
Adapted from: www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/434389/2020-new-zealand-s-seventh-warmest-as-weather-anomalies-continue

The story has the heading “NIWA figures show temperatures were well-above average”.

Comment on this claim, based on the information provided in this graph.

Justify your answer using statistical reasons, giving at least TWO different supporting statements.

Question Three continues

on the following page.

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(c) A weather forecast predicts the chance of rainfall for the following week in the table below.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Chance of
rainfall 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

(i) What is the probability that it will rain on both Saturday and Sunday?

(ii) What is the probability that it rains on either Monday or Tuesday, or both days?

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QUESTION
NUMBER

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QUESTION
NUMBER

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QUESTION
NUMBER

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QUESTION
NUMBER

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QUESTION
NUMBER

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Extra space if required.

Write the question number(s) if applicable.
QUESTION
NUMBER
91037

Mathematics and Statistics 91037, 2022