Scarlett Oliva

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk

Dusty Brooks
10/26/22

On October 26, 2022, I attended a math presentation at a zoom meeting that was
intended to take place at Sonoma State, but the presenter was unable to make it. Dusty
Brooks described the sort of math she works on as a mathematician in her presentation.
Dusty Brooks stated that dealing with Mars is the most important project she has been
assigned to, she was working on the Mars 2020 Launch Safety Analysis. There was a
mission that was different from the other missions because it was enabled by a
radioisotope thermoelectric generator. What's fascinating about it is that it allows for
in-depth research into our solar system. The issue with these missions is that they are
all nuclear missions, and the fuel power is the danger with dismission. The power
decays at different rates, and the ones that decay quickly are not as hazardous,
because they don't linger around. And the ones that degrade slowly provide little of an
issue. The most dangerous fading speed is in the middle since it is fast enough to do
damage but slow enough to remain around and cause problems. This has the potential
to cause the rocket to explode. Dusty Brooks' rule in this mission was to quantify the
mission's risk, and if the risk was too great, they couldn't launch it, therefore math is a
critical component in this operation. She accomplished this by dividing the mission into
six phases, constructing accident scenarios within each phase, grouping accident
environments into RASs, and combining data from each RAS into phases and overall
outcomes based on relative likelihood.
They were able to quantify the risk with this mission by breaking it down into
individual elements for which they have data, or by using modeling to try to estimate it.
They use a probability that they have for example one of the probabilities that she listed
was the probability of a consequence greater than a certain threshold, like plant
contamination. The government allows a certain level of plant contamination, and the
government needs to know the likelihood of what they will reach. First, they determine
the likelihood of an accident by calculating how many times it has failed in the past,
followed by the number of times it has launched. When there is an accident, they find
out how many times nuclear material has leaked. But after you find out all the numbers,
they need to find out how many times there were consequences because of that nuclear
release. They must consider all of the possible outcomes. They analyze more by having
several teams that have codes and models, and they combine all of their data to create
a mathematical summary of risk and uncertainty that summarizes all of the important
work that the teams have done.
This conference was different from the others I had attended because I was used
to them focusing on science, but this one was more centered on math, which I found
interesting. I'd always heard about how much math is in science, but I'd never seen it,
so I didn't think much of it; now I know that math is a big part of science. Dusty Brooks
introduces a space project that is dependent on the math data collected by her team,
demonstrating the importance of mathematics. What I also found fascinating was how
much effort goes into something as simple as determining the risk of something. We
don't realize how much work goes into our safety; we normally dismiss it as insignificant,
but it takes a lot of time and effort, so I'll be more grateful now. Although I found some
things interesting, most of the time I was confused by what Dusty Brooks was saying; it
is a difficult concept to grasp, and by attending this presentation, I learned a little more
about the works of uncertainty quantification and risk, as well as the process that people
go through to obtain it.
NASA
Published NOVEMBER 24, 2019
Public Safety Analysis of Mars 2020 Rover Launch Accident

The article is about the missions that Dusty Brooks was a part of. When NASA
was preparing for the summer 202 launches of its Mars 202 rover from Florida, they had
to test a lot and safety was their main focus before the launch. There was an analytical
team to ensure that this launch proceeded well and that it was safe for the environment
and humans. They found out the risk by examination of the possible radiological
dangers that are connected with the launch of the spacecraft. Not just a normal launch
but a spacecraft fueled by a radioisotope thermoelectric generator. And according to
their teachers, the likely outcome of the Mars 2020 trip is a successful launch. With all
of these calculations and research, it would be rare to have trouble during the launch,
and the risk of a radioactive material spill is also rare too.
There was a public meeting on the launch that was held in the Cape Canaveral
area, which was also online, during the week of November 11, 2019. This was a
meeting where people of the public could comment on the mission and the safety of this
mission. It was stated that the power system that NASA was using for this mission was
a research instrument that is basically a nuclear batter, which is why they are trying to
be extra safe about the mission. They are also being extra safe about this mission
because there have been missions like this in the past that exploded and was unsafe for
the environment, and could be unsafe for the public. It uses the natural radioactive
decay of plutonium dioxide as a heat source to generate energy and heat interior
systems. NASA has a lengthy and effective track record with these power systems.I
think that this article goes very well with what Dusty Brook was talking about. It is
essentially the same information but from and well thought out, NASA perspective.