Module VI-Cours - EN

Online Courses:
MACROECONOMIC MODELLING FOR

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Birahim Bouna NIANG

Full Professor
University Cheikh Anta Diop
NATIONS UNIES
INSTITUT AFRICAIN DE DÉVELOPPEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE ET DE
PLANIFICATION
UNITED NATIONS
AFRICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING
MODULE VI: AFRICAN ECONOMIES AND SDGS:

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN DATA AND
MODELLING
SUMMARY OF MODULE VI
Module VI deals with the challenges of SDGs, the capacity of African countries to
follow up on the 2030 agenda and the trends in SDGs observed. It also presents
a strategy to address the data gap on MDG indicators.
Online Course: Macroeconomic Modeling for Sustainable Development Planning
Pedagogical objectives of Module VI
The main objective of Module VI is to take stock of the state of play of the
Agenda 2030 information system in Africa.
Specifically it is about :
i) to identify the challenges of SDGs,
ii) to highlight data gaps,
iii) to present a strategy likely to fill the identified gap.
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Table of Contents
1- Agenda 2030: rationale and principles
2- Challenges of SDGs
3- Lessons learned from the MDGs and country capacities to inform MDG indicators
4- Evaluation of SDGs, targets and indicators
5- Baseline situation and projection of SDG indicators
6- Elements of a strategy to bridge the data gap
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1- Agenda 2030 : rationale and principles

The Agenda 2030 that was adopted by the international community, following the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs), was born out of an awareness of the deleterious effects and the
problem of sustainability of the growth and development model in progress since the
industrial revolution:
- overexploitation of natural resources,

- environmental degradation,
- Rising inequality and disasters (industrial and natural),
- perverse effects of climate change,
- etc.
Therefore, the new agenda should imperatively constitute a continuity solution of the
business as usual scenario. The 2030 agenda is therefore based on a certain number of
principles and criteria, in particular :
i) the universal nature of the new programme, which concerns both developing and
developed countries,
ii) the perspective of sustainable development in its economic, social and

environmental dimensions and the coverage of fields not included in the MDGs
(environmental issues, sustainability of consumption and production patterns,
resilience to disasters, etc.),
iii) good governance and the establishment of strong institutions,
iv) the implementation of monitoring-evaluation tools,
v) the inclusive nature of programme formulation and implementation and respect

for the principle of "leaving no one behind".
Agenda 2030 has 17 DOs, 169 targets and 232 indicators. Agenda 2063, which was set by the
African Union, has 63 key indicators, 40 of which are identical to those of the MDGs.
The 17 SDGs of the 2030 agenda are presented in Table 1 below:
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Table: the 17 sustainable development objectives
2- Challenges of SDGs
In order to achieve the goals set out in Agenda 2030, African countries would need to
address a multitude of challenges (UNECA, 2013):
i) structural transformation and the new growth model: this is a break with the
commodity-based rent-based economy. The resulting low level of diversification
does not guarantee strong, sustainable, job-creating and fairly distributed growth.
The structural transformation is manifested in greater diversification and a shift of
labour from low-productivity sectors (agriculture) to high-productivity sectors
(manufacturing). The new growth model should reconcile economic and social
progress with environmental protection;
ii) climate change: it manifests itself through perverse effects in the form of soil
degradation, loss of plant cover, water deficit and temperature increase. These
various effects have a negative impact on agricultural production and jeopardise
food security. They call for the definition and implementation of appropriate
adaptation strategies;
iii) peace and security: many African sub-regions are plagued by conflict and there is
a rise in insecurity and terrorism. Such a context does not allow for economic and
social progress. African countries should, with the support of the international
community, find appropriate responses that create the conditions for harmonious
development;
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iv) Good governance and transparency: Corruption is endemic in Africa. It creates

additional costs and is a hindrance to economic growth and development. Reforms
should be implemented to strengthen institutional capacities, improve the
management of public affairs and promote an inclusive and equitable decision-
making process;
v) Coherence between the DOs and national policies: the alignment of public policy
reference documents with the DOs is an imperative. This exercise is a prerequisite
for the implementation of economic and social development policies;
vi) information system and decision support tools: the intelligence of the MDG
indicators requires the collection of a large amount of data at both national and
sub-national levels. The data collected should meet several criteria: quality,
timeliness, accessibility, disaggregation. In addition, monitoring-evaluation tools
measuring progress and gaps should be available to inform decision-makers and
enable them to make adjustments to current policies.
3- Lessons learned from the MDGs and country capacities to inform MDG indicators
The implementation of the MDG agenda has led to significant social progress illustrated by
the following stylized facts (United Nations, 2015):
i) the number of people living in extreme poverty has more than halved in most
developing countries, from 1.9 billion in 1990 to 836 million in 2015,
ii) the proportion of undernourished people in developing regions has fallen by

almost half since 1990, from 23.3% in 1990-1992 to 12.9% in 2014-2016,
iii) The net enrolment rate increased by 20% in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000
and 2015 compared to 8% between 1990 and 2000.
Several lessons can be drawn from the implementation of the MDGs:
1- the importance of having quality data that meets the criteria of availability,
accessibility, timeliness and disaggregation,
2- the need for a monitoring-evaluation system to measure progress and guide the
decision-making process of those responsible for economic and social policy,
3- the adoption of a participatory approach including the different actors (central and
local administrations, private sector, civil society) and promoting ownership of the
programme,
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4- the use of an appropriate methodology going beyond the measurement of averages

to address the issue of inequalities (income, gender, regions, etc.),
5- the data revolution to create the conditions for the programme's success.
Developing countries face relatively acute problems in reporting and monitoring SDG
indicators. In the case of Senegal, a survey of data producers and users was conducted to
assess the capacity of the statistical system to monitor MDGs (IPAR, 2016).
The results of the survey (see tables 2 and 3 below) reveal that, as far as producers of statistical
data are concerned, the resource constraint is best shared among the nine areas considered.
With regard to the area of governance, the greatest constraint is the collaboration of
respondents followed by the administrative protocol. For the "energy/hydraulics" domain, the
administrative protocol appears to be the most tightly constrained.
On the side of data users, the lack of collaborators is one of the strongest constraints for
"agriculture", "governance" and "energy/hydraulics". In addition, the lack of analytical tools is
perceived as a constraint for "environment" and "governance".
As a result of the many constraints, the Senegalese statistical system only provides
information on around two-thirds of the SDG indicators (see Table 4). The gap is greater in the
economic and environmental fields, where the indicator coverage rate is 62% and 67%
respectively. The social sector is best covered with a rate of 78.5%.
Table 2: Main obstacles encountered by data producers
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Table 3: Main obstacles encountered by data users
Table 4: Information on SDG indicators
Source: Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Planning
The same problems of capacity in the national statistical system can be found in North Africa
(UNECA, 2020a). Figure 1 below shows the average statistical capacity score of North African
countries in 2017. The score is considered indicative of low capacity if it is between 20 and 50.
Capacity is considered medium if the score is in the range 51-75. It is considered high if the
score is between 76 and 100.
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With a score of 22.2% Libya has a low capacity. Algeria, Mauritania, Tunisia and Sudan are
ranked among the medium capacity countries. Only Egypt and Morocco appear as high
capacity North African countries with a score of 83.3% and 76.6% respectively.
It thus appears that the score is not necessarily GDP or GDP per capita. Countries such as
Algeria and Libya have a relatively low score given their level of development. This is due to
political will and the choices made by public decision-makers.
With a score of 60.5% Africa south of the Sahara has an average statistical capacity.
Chart 1: Indicators of statistical capacity (percent), 2017
Source: ECA (2020a): 'The data revolution in North Africa: putting data at the service of
structural transformation'.
Statistical capacity is hampered by several persistent constraints (UNECA, 2020a) :
i) limited and unstable budgets,
ii) Inappropriate human resources,
iii) the provision of inadequate equipment and infrastructure,
iv) low sensitivity to quality.
The Covid 19 pandemic is an additional constraint that has had a negative impact on the
activities of national statistical institutions in Africa. For example, a survey conducted in 2020
(UNECA, 2020b) on a sample of 34 African countries revealed that 25% of planned surveys
were interrupted or suspended and 48 surveys were postponed.
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In addition, in countries where activities are ongoing, a low response rate of respondents and
low sample coverage has been observed.
The results of the survey also highlighted needs related to the impact of the health crisis:
- technical assistance and capacity building,
- financial support
- support in the deployment of collaborative solutions.
4- Evaluation of SDGs, targets and indicators

The implementation of the SDG programme is assessed here in the light of the Senegalese
experience. A small group was set up for the purposes of the SDG evaluation. It includes the
Office of the Prime Minister, departments attached to the Presidency of the Republic, the
Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning, the National Statistics Agency, technical ministries
(education, health, environment) and civil society.
The evaluation focuses to a large extent on the coherence between the 2030 agenda and the
emerging Senegal Plan (PSE) which was adopted in 2014 and which constitutes a reference
framework for public policies.
4.1- Assessment of the alignment of PSE and sectoral policies

The evaluation of the PSE strategic framework (Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning,
2018) shows that there is coherence between the orientations of the PSE and the 17 SDGs:
o Axis 1 of the PSE which is dedicated to wealth creation and poverty eradication is
consistent with five MDGs (1, 2, 7, 8 and 9);
o Axis 2 relating to "human capital, social protection and sustainable development" is in

line with nine SDGs (3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15);
o Axis 3, which deals with "governance, institutions, peace and security", is consistent
with three DOs (10, 16 and 17).
Sectoral policies cover nearly 77% of the MDG targets during the first PSE (2014 - 2018).
4.2- Evaluation of the alignment of the monitoring framework of public policies and
SDG indicators
The Senegalese national statistical system provides information on two-thirds of the SDG
indicators (Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning, 2018). However, this capacity to
inform indicators varies according to the dimensions (economic, social, environmental,
governance).
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The most informative indicators are the economic and social indicators that were monitored
with the MDGs. Their coverage rates are 78.5% and 74.5% respectively (see Table 5). However,
once sustainability and inequalities are taken into account, the capacity to report on these
indicators decreases from 74.5% to 62%.
Indicators related to the environment and governance are the least well informed. Their
coverage rate is 66.7%.
Table 5: Senegal's capacity to fill in SDG indicators
SDG 6, which has 11 indicators, is the only one with a 100% intelligence capacity using national
data.
With regard to MDGs 8, 3 and 7 on growth, decent work, health and well-being, access to
energy services for vulnerable groups, the intelligence capacity is over 80%.
The intelligence capacity of OOD 2, 9, 4, 17 and 5 is over 70%.
The weakest intelligence capability is found with SDG 13, 12 and 10. It is below 43%
4.3- Evaluation of the articulation of the OOD and PSE targets

The capacity of PSE to reach SDG targets was simulated with the T21 model adapted to
Senegal (T21-iSDG-Senegal model). The scenarios considered are the following (Ministry of
Economy, Finance and Planning, 2018):
o baseline scenario or Business as Usual (BAU): it describes the evolution of socio-

economic variables under the assumption that public policies are unchanged ;
o PSE scenario: it is based on the assumption that the PSE priority action programme
(PAP) will be implemented over the 2014-2018 period.
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In the LOW scenario the level of achievement of the MDGs is 27%. This result is linked to weak
growth (4.2% in 2030), increasing inequalities and the weakness of MDGs 1 and 10. However,
a better performance is noted for MDGs 3, 6, 12 and 14.
In the PSE scenario there is a clear improvement in the levels of realisation of the MDGs. The
average performance is 22 points higher than in the BAU scenario. The 1GDP growth rate over
the period 2015-2030 is 7.3%. Growth is driven by public investment, improved governance
and foreign direct investment. In addition, there is a reduction in inequalities and a good
performance of MDGs 1 and 10. Compared to the LOW scenario, the best performances
concern MDGs 2, 11 and 13.
5- Baseline situation and projection of SDG indicators

The analysis of SDG trends in Africa was carried out using a methodology proposed by SDSN
and the development of an index and a dashboard (SDSN, 2019).
5.1- Methodology
An SDG index has been constructed to estimate the progress of African countries in
achieving SDGs. The score assigned to a MDG can be interpreted as the percentage of
achievement. The difference between 100 and a country's score therefore measures the
distance in percentage points needed to reach the MDGs.
The same battery of indicators is used to rank countries. However, it should be noted that
differences in the ranking may be related to small differences in the overall score.
The SDG Scoreboard provides a visual representation of country performance by SDG to

identify priorities for action. The colour scheme of the "traffic light" (green, yellow, orange,
red) is used to illustrate a country's status for a given SDG. The colour green indicates the
achievement of the goal. It is only assigned to a country if all indicators have the required
value. The colours yellow, orange and red indicate the distance to the achievement of the
target.
The MDG Trend Scoreboard shows the extent to which a country is on track to achieve a
particular target by 2030 based on recent indicator performance. Indicator trends are
aggregated at the MDG level to obtain an overall trend and measure progress towards the
overall target.
The Index and Scoreboard report uses data from a survey covering six strategic areas:
1- national strategies and the reference scenario,
2- the budgetary operations carried out,
1
The acronym SDSN stands for Sustainable Development Strategy Network. It is a network of academics that
aims to implement project solutions to the challenges of sustainable development in all regions of the world.
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3- stakeholder engagement,
4- coordination units,
5- legislative actions,
6- the main implementation challenges.
5.2- The SDG index in Africa

The index calculated in 2019 ranks 52 African countries on the basis of 97 indicators covering
the 17 MDGs. The index score indicates a country's position between the worst (0) and the
best (100) situation.
In 2019, the highest ranked country is Mauritius with a score of 66.19. This means that this
country is 66% of the way towards achieving the MDGs. Among the top 5 countries are Tunisia
(2), Algeria (3), Morocco (4) and Cape Verde (5).
The worst performing countries are fragile states, which are characterised by a high
prevalence of poverty and conflict within their borders. They include Southern Sudan, Central
African Republic and Chad with scores of 29.2, 36.7 and 38.7 respectively.
5.3- the scorecard and SDG trends

The Scoreboard is a snapshot of the challenges Africa faces in achieving the MDGs. From Table
7 below, it can be seen that the colours orange and red are dominant in the Scoreboard. This
means that the majority of countries are not on track to achieve the 17 MDGs. The colours in
the Scoreboard indicate that the greatest challenges for African countries are :
i) At SDG 3 (good health and well-being), 87% of countries are in the red,
ii) SDG 9 (infrastructure) with 80% of countries having the colour red,
iii) SDG 16 (pax, justice, strong institutions) with 78% having a red colour.
The SDGs for which Africans perform best are SDG 163 (climate action) and SDG 12
(responsible consumption and production) with 19% and 26% respectively of the countries
that are green.
The worst trends are recorded by MDGs 4, 11 and 16. With regard to these MDGs, countries
are treading water.
On the whole, the most frequent situation is stagnation precisely for DOs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and
16.
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Table 6: SDG index ranking in Africa
Source: SDSN (2019)
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Table 7: Scoreboard and trends in SDGs in Africa
Source: SDSN (2019)
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The data gap is glaring. It was not possible to make a trend analysis for MDGs 10 and 12 due
to the lack of time series (see Table 8). 43% of the countries do not have data for trend analysis
for SDG 8 and 37% of the countries do not have sufficient data for SDG 11.
Table 8: Trends of 15 out of 17 ODEDs in Africa
Source: SDSN (2019)
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6- Elements of a strategy to bridge the data gap

To fill the data gap an effective strategy should be implemented. It is based on the following
measures:
i) use the data revolution (ECA, 2020a). The aim is to significantly increase the
volume of data by relying on new technologies (mobile, Internet of Things,
geospatial methods, etc.),
ii) make transversal data accessible and usable (Van Belle et alii, 2018),
iii) use open licenses to remove constraints on data dissemination,
iv) promote public-private partnership in the data collection activity,
v) strengthen the human and technical capacities of data producers (staff capacity
building, setting up appropriate tools and equipment) at both central and local
levels,
vi) use traditional and unconventional data sources (quality data, citizen data,
perception data),
vii) Establish a culture of quality and accountability,
viii) set up a system for measuring progress,
ix) promote data credibility (robustness of methodology, timeliness, reliability,

accuracy).
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Bibliographical references
ECA (2020a) "The Data Revolution in Africa: Putting Data at the Service of Structural
Transformation".
Economic Commission for Africa
ECA (2020b) "Rapid assessment of the impact of COVID-19".

ECA (2013) "Africa Regional Report on Sustainable Development Goals".

IPAR (2016) "Evaluation of SDG monitoring capacities in Senegal".

IPAR August
Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning (2018) "Voluntary National Report".

MEFP June
United Nations (2015) "MDG Report 2015".

United Nations
SDSN (2019) "SDG Index and Dashboards Report".

SDG Center for Africa
Van Belle et alii (2018) "2018 Report on the Data Revolution in Africa. Emerging Status and
Impacts of Open Data in Africa".
UNDP - ECA
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Online Courses:

MACROECONOMIC MODELLING FOR

Birahim Bouna NIANG

MODULE VI: AFRICAN ECONOMIES AND SDGS:

Pedagogical objectives of Module VI

i) to identify the challenges of SDGs,

ii) to highlight data gaps,

iii) to present a strategy likely to fill the identified gap.

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

1- Agenda 2030: rationale and principles

4- Evaluation of SDGs, targets and indicators

5- Baseline situation and projection of SDG indicators

6- Elements of a strategy to bridge the data gap

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

1- Agenda 2030 : rationale and principles

- overexploitation of natural resources,

ii) the perspective of sustainable development in its economic, social and

iii) good governance and the establishment of strong institutions,

iv) the implementation of monitoring-evaluation tools,

v) the inclusive nature of programme formulation and implementation and respect

The 17 SDGs of the 2030 agenda are presented in Table 1 below:

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

Table: the 17 sustainable development objectives

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

iv) Good governance and transparency: Corruption is endemic in Africa. It creates

ii) the proportion of undernourished people in developing regions has fallen by

Several lessons can be drawn from the implementation of the MDGs:

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

4- the use of an appropriate methodology going beyond the measurement of averages

Table 2: Main obstacles encountered by data producers

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

Table 3: Main obstacles encountered by data users

Table 4: Information on SDG indicators

Source: Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Planning

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

Chart 1: Indicators of statistical capacity (percent), 2017

Statistical capacity is hampered by several persistent constraints (UNECA, 2020a) :

i) limited and unstable budgets,

ii) Inappropriate human resources,

iii) the provision of inadequate equipment and infrastructure,

iv) low sensitivity to quality.

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

- technical assistance and capacity building,

- support in the deployment of collaborative solutions.

4- Evaluation of SDGs, targets and indicators

4.1- Assessment of the alignment of PSE and sectoral policies

o Axis 2 relating to "human capital, social protection and sustainable development" is in

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

Table 5: Senegal's capacity to fill in SDG indicators

The intelligence capacity of OOD 2, 9, 4, 17 and 5 is over 70%.

4.3- Evaluation of the articulation of the OOD and PSE targets

o baseline scenario or Business as Usual (BAU): it describes the evolution of socio-

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

5- Baseline situation and projection of SDG indicators

The SDG Scoreboard provides a visual representation of country performance by SDG to

1- national strategies and the reference scenario,

2- the budgetary operations carried out,

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

6- the main implementation challenges.

5.2- The SDG index in Africa

5.3- the scorecard and SDG trends

IDEP  +221 33 829 55 00 idep@unidep.org

Table 6: SDG index ranking in Africa