1.

Background of the issue

A brief summary of USSR:

Soviet Union, in full Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.), former
northern Eurasian empire stretching from the Baltic and Black seas to
the Pacific Ocean and, in its final years, consisting of 15 Soviet Socialist
Republics (S.S.R.’s): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia
(now Belarus), Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirgiziya
(now Kyrgyzstan), Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia
(now Moldova), Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The
capital was Moscow, then and now the capital of Russia.

The country's roots lay in the October Revolution of 1917, when the Bolsheviks,

under the leadership of Vladimir Lenin, overthrew the Russian Provisional
Government that had earlier
replaced the House of Romanov of the Russian
Empire. The Bolshevik triumph led to the
creation of the Russian Soviet Republic, the first
socialist state with constitutional guarantees.
The Russian Civil War resulted from escalating
domestic conflicts. By 1922, the Bolsheviks, led
by Vladimir Lenin, had triumphed and created
the Soviet Union. After Lenin's death in 1924,
Joseph Stalin took over. Stalin started a phase
of rapid industrialization and coerced
collectivization that significantly increased the
country's economy but also contributed to the
famine that killed millions of people in 1930–
1933. The labour camp system of the Gulag was
also expanded in this period. Stalin conducted
the Great Purge to remove his actual and perceived opponents. After the
outbreak of World War II, Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The majority of
Allied force losses were attributable to the combined Soviet civilian and military
casualty count, which is believed to be over 27 million people. In the aftermath
of World War II, the territory taken by the Red Army formed various Soviet
satellite states.

The beginning of the Cold War saw the Eastern Bloc of the Soviet Union

confront the Western Bloc of the United States, with the latter grouping
becoming largely united in 1949 under NATO and the former grouping
becoming largely united in 1955 under the Warsaw Pact. Following death in
Stalin's 1953, a period known as de-Stalinization occurred under the leadership
of Nikita Khrushchev. With the first artificial satellite, the first human
spaceflight, and the first probe to land on another planet (Venus), the Soviet
Union gained an early advantage in the Space Race. The Soviet Union and the
United States experienced a brief détente in the 1970s, but tensions returned
in 1979 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In the mid-1980s, the last
Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, sought to reform the country through his
policies of glasnost and perestroika. In 1989, during the closing stages of the
Cold War, various countries of the Warsaw Pact overthrew their Marxist–
Leninist regimes, which was accompanied by the outbreak of
strong nationalist and separatist movements across the entire Soviet Union. In
1991, Gorbachev initiated a national referendum—boycotted by the Soviet
republics of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova—that
resulted in the majority of participating citizens voting in favour of preserving
the country as a renewed federation. In August 1991, hard-line members of the
Communist Party staged a coup d'état against Gorbachev; the attempt failed,
with Boris Yeltsin playing a high-profile role in facing down the unrest, and the
Communist Party was subsequently banned. All of the republics emerged from
the dissolution of the Soviet Union as fully independent post-Soviet states.

The Soviet Union produced many significant social and technological

achievements and innovations. The Soviet Armed Forces made up the largest
standing force in the world and had the second-largest economy in the world.
An NPT-designated state, it possessed the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in
the world. It was one of the five permanent members of the UN Security
Council and a founder member of the United Nations. Before the dissolution,
the country had maintained its status as one of the world's two superpowers
through its hegemony in Eastern Europe, military and economic strengths, aid
to developing countries, and scientific research.

Dissolution and aftermath:

The dissolution of the Soviet Union was the process of internal disintegration
within the Soviet Union (USSR) which resulted in the end of the country's and
its federal government's existence as a sovereign state, thereby resulting in its
constituent republics gaining full sovereignty on 26 December 1991. It brought
an end to General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev's (later also President) effort
to reform the Soviet political and economic system in an attempt to stop
a period of political stalemate and economic backslide. The Soviet Union had
experienced internal stagnation and ethnic separatism. Although highly
centralized until its final years, the country was made up of fifteen top-level
republics that served as homelands for different ethnicities. By late 1991, amid
a catastrophic political crisis, with several republics already departing the Union
and the waning of centralized power, the leaders of three of its founding
members declared that the Soviet Union no longer existed. Eight more
republics joined their declaration shortly thereafter. Gorbachev resigned in
December 1991 and what was left of the Soviet parliament voted to end itself.
The process began with growing unrest in the Union's various constituent
national republics developing into an incessant political and legislative
conflict between them and the central government. Estonia was the first Soviet
republic to declare state sovereignty inside the Union on 16 November
1988. Lithuania was the first republic to declare full independence restored
from the Soviet Union by the Act of 11 March 1990 with its Baltic neighbors
and the Southern Caucasus republic of Georgia joining it in a course of two
months.
In August 1991, communist hardliners and military elites tried to overthrow
Gorbachev and stop the failing reforms in a coup, but failed. The turmoil led to
the government in Moscow losing most of its influence, and many republics
proclaiming independence in the following days and months. The secession of
the Baltic states was recognized in September 1991. The Belovezh Accords
were signed on 8 December by President Boris
Yeltsin of Russia, President Kravchuk of Ukraine,
and Chairman Shushkevich of Belarus, recognising each other's independence
and creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to replace the
Soviet Union. Kazakhstan was the last republic to leave the Union, proclaiming
independence on 16 December. All the ex-Soviet republics, with the exception
of Georgia and the Baltic states, joined the CIS on 21 December, signing
the Alma-Ata Protocol. On 25 December, Gorbachev resigned and turned over
his presidential powers—including control of the nuclear launch codes—to
Yeltsin, who was now the first president of the Russian Federation. That
evening, the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin and replaced with
the Russian tricolour flag. The following day, the Supreme Soviet of the USSR's
upper chamber, the Soviet of the Republics formally dissolved the Union.
In the aftermath of the Cold War, several of the former Soviet republics have
retained close links with Russia and formed multilateral organizations such as
the CIS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Eurasian Economic
Union (EAEU), and the Union State, for economic and military cooperation. On
the other hand, the Baltic states and most of the former Warsaw Pact states
became part of the European Union and joined NATO, while some of the other
former Soviet republics like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have been publicly
expressing interest in following the same path since the 1990s.
With the euphoria of the early 1990s gone, we can now make a more sober
assessment of the Soviet Union’s disintegration and the reasons for it. We can
also define the direction in which that process continues to develop and
perhaps make better predictions about its future. One thing is immediately
obvious: post-Soviet space has disintegrated into more than a dozen smaller
polities that move to their own drumbeats, often in different directions.
History, in particular pre-Soviet history, played an important role in defining the
post-Soviet developments in the region. 

With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, one of the most encouraging features
of its collapse was the absence of large-scale wars between the republics. The
scenario that concerned many in the West, “Yugoslavia with nukes,” never
materialized. 
The presence of nuclear weapons on Soviet territory should be credited not
only with the peaceful end of the Cold War but also with the relatively peaceful
dissolution of the Soviet Union, where four republics, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus,
and Kazakhstan, found themselves in possession, although not always in
control, of nuclear weapons. The United States worked hand in hand with
Russia to bring about nuclear disarmament, forcing Ukraine and the other
republics to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances.
These turned out to be worthless once Russia invaded Ukraine in the spring of
2014.

Post-Soviet background

Regional organizations:

 Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine founded the Commonwealth of Independent

States (CIS) in December 1991. It was conceived as a successor organization
to the USSR, and in December 1993 it included 12 of the 15 former Soviet
republics (except the three Baltic states). It currently consists of nine of the
15 former Soviet republics, with one associate state (Turkmenistan).
Georgia withdrew from the CIS in August 2008, while Ukraine stopped
participating from the CIS in May 2018.
 The three Baltic states have not sought membership in any of these post-
Soviet organizations, seeking and achieving membership in the European
Union and NATO instead, although their electricity and rail systems remain
closely connected with former Soviet organizations. The sole exception to
 the above has been their recent membership in the Community of
Democratic Choice.
 The Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
and Uzbekistan (as well as Belarus) are members of the CIS and participate
in several regional organizations that have Russia as a primary mover. Such
organizations are the Eurasian Economic Community (later merged
with Eurasian Economic Union, which Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are not
members of), Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation. The last two groups only became distinct once
Uzbekistan withdrew from GUAM and sought membership in EurAsEc and
CSTO (which it subsequently withdrew from in 2008 and 2012, respectively).
 Armenia, besides its membership in CIS participates in Collective Security
Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union.
 Moldova and Azerbaijan participate in the CIS but other than that they
mostly cooperate within regional organizations that are not dominated by
Russia. Such organizations are GUAM and the Community of Democratic
Choice. Although Ukraine is one of the three founding countries of the CIS,
it is legally not a member because it has never ratified the 1993 CIS Charter.
 Turkmenistan is an associate member of CIS (having withdrawn from full
membership in August 2005) and a member in the Economic Cooperation
Organization; it has not sought closer integration in any of the other
Western or post-Soviet organizations.
 In 2008, Georgia notified the CIS executive bodies of its decision to leave
the regional organization, and according to the CIS Charter (sec. 1, art. 9)
this decision went into force 12 months after the notification date.

Eurasian Economic Community:

The Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC or EurAsEC) was a regional
organisation between 2000 and 2014 which aimed for the economic
integration of its member states.  The organisation originated from
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on 29 March 1996, with the
treaty on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community signed on 10
October 2000 in Kazakhstan's capital Astana by Presidents Alexander
Lukashenko of Belarus, Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, Askar
Akayev of Kyrgyzstan, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Emomali
Rahmon of Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined the community on 7 October 2005, but
later withdrew on 16 October 2008.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization:

Three former Soviet states are members of NATO: Estonia, Latvia,
and Lithuania. Georgia, where both public opinion and the ruling government
favor NATO membership, is in the Intensified Dialogue program with NATO.
Ukraine also declared joining NATO as its geopolitical goal once again in 2017
(the first time being right after the Orange Revolution and in the beginning of
presidency of Viktor Yushchenko), after the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych,
during which the government officially declared neutrality and ceased to seek
NATO membership.

Other states in the Partnership for Peace and Individual Partnership Action

Plan program include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

GUAM:
Four member states, namely Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova,
established the GUAM group that was largely seen as intending to counter
Russian dominance in the region. Notably, these four nations do not participate
in any of the other regional organizations that sprang up in the region since the
dissolution of the Soviet Union (other than the CIS).

Union State:
The Union State of Russia and Belarus was originally formed on 2 April 1996
under the name Commonwealth of Russia and Belarus, before being tightened
further on 8 December 1999. It was initiated by the president of
Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. On paper, the Union of Russia and Belarus
intends further integration, beyond the scope of mere cooperation, including
the introduction of the Rouble as a common currency.

Political integration and security alliances:

 Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe (SPforSEE) with Moldova (similar in

structure to CEFTA, but does not focus on economy but security, for those
countries that are not NATO members); this organization largely cooperates
 with NATO, and is related to the group of observers at Western European
Union (WEU).
 The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), for Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, and Central European countries that have also joined the
EU (the EU membership includes also WEU membership because they
follow the Common Foreign and Security Policy and European Security and
Defence Policy policies shared now by the EU, the WEU and all European
NATO members).
 The other remaining countries are those part of the former Yugoslavia, but
their recent conflict and political tensions still does not allow them to
cooperate efficiently for their political integration and for their mutual
security; in addition, they still do not have full sovereignty in this domain
(some of them are still under surveillance by EU or NATO, as mandated by
UNO). They still need to find an internal stability and they can collaborate
economically with the help of other organizations focusing on economy or
political cooperation and development. However a more limited
cooperation for security is possible through their membership to the
larger Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
 The only exception is Belarus (whose post-soviet democratic transition did
not occur) that still rejects political integration, and all security alliances
with NATO, OSCE, WEU or other countries in Europe other than Russia
(which the process of reintegration of Belarus has been tightened in almost
all domains).

Politics:
Regarding political freedom in the former Soviet republics, Freedom House's
2021 report listed the following:

 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as "free" countries.

 Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine were listed as "partly free".
 Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenista
n, and Uzbekistan were listed as "not free".
Similarly, the Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders in
2022 recorded the following as regards press freedom:

 Estonia — "Good situation"

 Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova — "Satisfactory situation"
 Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine — "Problematic situation"
 Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan — "Difficult situation"
 Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia, Turkmenistan — "Very serious situation"
It has been remarked that several post-Soviet states did not change leadership
for decades since their independence, such as Nursultan Nazarbayev in
Kazakhstan until his surprise resignation in 2019, and Islam Karimov in
Uzbekistan, until his death in September 2016. All of these had originally more
limited terms but through decrees or referendums prolonged their stay in
office (a practice also followed by Presidents Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus
and Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan). Askar Akayev of Kyrgyzstan had likewise
served as President since its independence until he was forced to resign as a
result of the Kyrgyz revolution of 2005. Saparmurat Niyazov in Turkmenistan
ruled from independence until his death in 2006, creating a personality
cult around himself. His successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, has
maintained a personality cult of his own that has replaced the worshipping of
Niyazov.
The issue of dynastical succession has been another element affecting the
politics of some post-Soviet States. Heydar Aliyev, after constructing
an extensive and ongoing cult of personality, handed the Presidency of
Azerbaijan to his son, Ilham Aliyev. Theories about the children of other leaders
in Central Asia being groomed for succession abound. The participation of
Akayev's son and daughter in the 2005 Kyrgyz parliamentary elections boosted
fears of dynastic succession being used in Kyrgyzstan as well, and may have
contributed to the anti-Akayev climate that led to his overthrow.

Post-Soviet nostalgia:
Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union a certain number of people
(predominantly people around the age of 55–80, which is most likely due to the
USSR's peak performance in the time of Brezhnev) have expressed a longing for
the Soviet period and its values. The level of post-Soviet nostalgia varies across
the former republics. For example, certain groups of people may blend the
Soviet and post-Soviet experience in their daily lives.
A 2009 Pew Research Center poll showed that 62% of Ukrainians felt that their
lives were worse off after 1989, when free markets were made dominant. A
follow-up poll by Pew Research Center in 2011 showed that 45% of Lithuanians,
42% of Russians, and 34% of Ukrainians approved of the change to a post-
Soviet market economy.
According to July 2012 polling in Ukraine by RATING, 42% of respondents
supported the formation of a unified state of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus;
earlier in 2012 this support had been 48%.
A 2016 poll of Russian citizens conducted by Levada Center showed that the
majority viewed the collapse of the USSR negatively and felt that it could have
been avoided, and an even greater number would openly welcome a revival of
the Soviet system. A 2018 poll showed that 66% of Russians regretted the
collapse of the USSR, setting a 15-year record. The majority were people older
than 55. A 2019 poll found that 59% of Russians felt that the Soviet
government "took care of ordinary people". Joseph Stalin's favorability also hit
record highs that same year

2. Current Situation

A quarter of a century has passed since the disintegration of the Soviet

Union, yet the fundamental character of relations between the former Soviet
states remains contested. There is no agreement on what is legitimate in
relations between these states, and the limits and constraints on the exercise
of sovereignty by the former Soviet republics. The post-Soviet ‘space’ remains
precisely a politically undetermined area, with questions raised over whether it
represents a coherent region at all. It is not even clear what to call this part of
the world, since the use of the prefix ‘post’ by definition accentuates what
came before, rather than focusing on what the region now is or what these
countries could become.
The question of what is legitimate in post-Soviet Eurasia is fundamentally
contested, and reflects broader divisions about the end of the Cold War, the
security promises made at that time and, ultimately, conceptualization of the
‘imperial’ character of the Soviet Union and its continuer state, Russia. The
concept of legitimacy is always relational, dependent on understanding the
broader political context, the character of historical time and a country’s
relative position in a power system. Equally, sovereignty is rarely absolute but
part of a broader dynamic of international relations.

Russo-Ukrainian War
Most current example for the territorial integrity in post-soviet states is
Russo-Ukrainian war. It has been ongoing since February 2014. Following
Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and
supported pro-Russian separatists in the war in Donbas against Ukrainian
government forces; fighting for the first eight years of the conflict also
included naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and heightened political tensions. In
February 2022, the conflict saw a major escalation as Russia launched a full-
scale invasion of Ukraine. (As the Academic team we suggest you to research
the history of this war way more detailed. If you struggle to find news and
speeches in favour of Russia, I as the academic advisor recommend you to
watch ‘Putin’s address to the nation on 21 February’, this speech will help you
understand the point of view of Russia better. We will start this guide from
February, 2022)

Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022):

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine began on the morning of 24
February,  when Putin announced a "special military operation" to
"demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. Minutes later, missiles and airstrikes hit
across Ukraine, including Kyiv, shortly followed by a large ground invasion
along multiple fronts. Zelenskyy declared martial law and a general
mobilisation of all male Ukrainian citizens between 18 and 60, who were
banned from leaving the country.
Russian attacks were initially launched on a northern
front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a north-eastern
front towards Kharkiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a south-eastern
front from Luhansk and Donetsk. In the northern front, amidst heavy losses and
strong Ukrainian resistance surrounding Kyiv, Russia's advance stalled in March,
and by April its troops retreated. On 8 April, Russia placed its forces in southern
and eastern Ukraine under the command of General Aleksandr Dvornikov, and
some units withdrawn from the north were redeployed to the Donbas. On 19
April, Russia launched a renewed attack across a 500 kilometres (300 mi) long
front extending from Kharkiv to Donetsk and Luhansk. By 13 May, a Ukraine
counter-offensive had driven back Russian forces near Kharkiv. By 20
May, Mariupol fell to Russian troops following a prolonged siege of
the Azovstal steel works. Russian forces continued to bomb both military and
civilian targets far from the frontline. The war caused the largest refugee
and humanitarian crisis within Europe since the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s;
the UN described it as the fastest-growing such crisis since World War II. In the
first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled
Ukraine; this subsequently rose to over 7,405,590 by 24 September, a
reduction from over eight million due to some refugees' return.
Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south in August, and in the
northeast in September. On 30 September, Russia annexed four oblasts of
Ukraine which it had partially conquered during the invasion. This annexation
was generally unrecognized and condemned by the countries of the world.
After Putin announced that he would begin conscription drawn from the
300,000 citizens with military training and potentially the pool of about 25
million Russians who could be eligible for conscription, one-way tickets out of
the country nearly or completely sold out. The Ukrainian offensive in the
northeast successfully recaptured the majority of Kharkiv Oblast in September.
In the course of the southern counteroffensive, Ukraine retook the city
of Kherson in November and Russian forces withdrew to the east bank of the
Dnieper River.
The invasion was internationally condemned as a war of aggression. A United
Nations General Assembly resolution demanded a full withdrawal of Russian
forces, the International Court of Justice ordered Russia to suspend military
operations and the Council of Europe expelled Russia. Many countries imposed
new sanctions, which affected the economies of Russia and the world, and
provided humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. In September 2022, Putin
signed a law that would punish anyone who resists conscription with a 10-year
prison sentence resulting in an international push to allow asylum for Russians
fleeing conscription.
 Many observers speak of a return of the Cold War to the now redefined
Eastern Europe, consisting of the former Soviet republics of the USSR’s western
and, in part, southern periphery. But in reality, the new Cold War started there
as soon as the original one was over. What is truly unprecedented in the
developments of the last decade is the emergence of new international actors
in the post-Soviet space.

The scale of the new Cold War is much smaller than that of the old one.
The Iron Curtain has fallen, and people are free to travel. The dictates of
communist ideology are gone, along with its social experiments and the Gulag.
No one is forcing farmers to join collectives by starving them to death, nor is
anyone killing writers to arrest the development of non-Russian cultures. Most
of the post-Soviet countries are much freer today than they were even during
Gorbachev’s perestroika, to say nothing of Stalin’s murderous dictatorship. The
rule of law is slowly making progress in the region, and the vast majority of
post-Soviet economies have grown since 1991, with concomitant
improvements in the standard of living. All this allows us to look to the future
without the euphoria of 1991, but with cautious optimism.
BİBLİOGRAPHY:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/06/30/whose-rules-whose-sphere-russian-
governance-and-influence-in-post-soviet-states-pub-71403
https://www.hnmun.org/specpol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union
https://www.britannica.com/place/Soviet-Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union
https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/fall-of-soviet-union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-
Ukrainian_War#A_stable_line_of_conflict_(2015%E2%80%932022)
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2016/12/russia-question-sovereignty-and-legitimacy-
post-soviet-eurasia
https://huri.harvard.edu/news/return-history-post-soviet-space-thirty-years-after-fall-
ussr
https://coldwarsites.net/country/estonia/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_states#Economy

USEFUL LİNKS:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/06/30/whose-rules-whose-sphere-russian-
governance-and-influence-in-post-soviet-states-pub-71403

QUESTİONS TO CONSİDER:

What exactly does Russia want in Ukraine and the other post-Soviet states, and
how does it seek to influence the political development of its immediate
neighbors? 
How can it be ensured that the military build-ups in regions are only for
security purposes and that a war situation does not occur?
Does Russia aim to form the USSR back?