See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/355146017

BACKGROUND, CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE TIGRAY CONFLICT IN

ETHIOPIA THAT STARTED ON NOVEMBER 4, 2020

Article · July 2021

CITATIONS READS

0 1,877

1 author:

Philippe Pellet
Research Institute for Religion and Society
6 PUBLICATIONS   1 CITATION   

SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Study of the ongoing Tigray's war in Ethiopia View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Philippe Pellet on 08 October 2021.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 BACKGROUND, CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE TIGRAY CONFLICT
IN ETHIOPIA THAT STARTED ON NOVEMBER 4, 2020
By Philippe Pellet, Research Institute for Religion and Society, Budapest, Hungary
July 1st, 2021

TABLE OF CONTENT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ i
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1
2. HUMAN, POLITICAL, AND GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT ..................................................................... 1
Population .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Geography .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Political system................................................................................................................................... 2
Religions ............................................................................................................................................. 3
3. KEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DATA OF THE COUNTRY ...................................................... 6
4. SOME ELEMENTS ON ETHIOPIA’S HISTORY .................................................................................... 7
The kingdom of Aksum and the birth of Christianity in the Horn of Africa ......................................... 7
Evolution of Ethiopia from the 19th century to the present day........................................................ 8
19th century - mid 20th century..................................................................................................... 8
1970 - 1991 .................................................................................................................................. 11
1991 - 2018 .................................................................................................................................. 11
2018 - 2020: Abiy Ahmed comes to power and political and ethnic tensions escalate ................ 13
5. CHRONOLOGY OF THE CONFLICT ................................................................................................. 14
6. CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONFLICT .............................................................................................. 16
Control of the Tigray territory .......................................................................................................... 16
Exactions against civilians and clerics, looting .................................................................................. 19
Situation of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) ......................................................... 20
Situation regarding pre-existing refugee camps ............................................................................... 21
Major humanitarian crisis ................................................................................................................ 21
Growing tensions between ethnic groups ........................................................................................ 23
7. CURRENT RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS - NEEDS..................................................... 23
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The conflict
The military offensive unleashed on November 4, 2020, by the central government in Addis Ababa
against Tigray regional State is the culmination of escalating political tensions between Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed, in power since 2018, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
During the month of November, federal Ethiopian troops, supported by military forces from the
Ahmara regional State as well as the Eritrean army, quickly occupied the main cities of Tigray, including
its capital Mekelle, so that on November 28, 2020, the Prime Minister announced the end of the
military confrontation. The reality was quite different: Tigrayan forces still controlled large territories,
especially in the hard-to-reach mountain regions, so the fighting continued for many months. In June
2021, Tigray armed forces retook the main towns in Tigray, including its capital Mekelle, leading the
central government to announce a unilateral ceasefire on 28 June 2021.
Humanitarian consequences
In May 2021, Abune Mathias I, Patriarch of the Tewahedo Orthodox Church of Ethiopia, declared that
genocide was underway in Tigray. This statement, although not endorsed by the Holy Synod of the
Tewahedo Orthodox Church, seems to be confirmed - at least in part - by numerous reports of serious
abuses and massacres committed against civilians and clerics by the Ethiopian and Eritrean occupation
forces, as well as the destruction and looting of numerous infrastructures, in particular hospitals,
schools, factories, agricultural infrastructures, drinking water facilities, and even holy places. According
to international humanitarian aid agencies, this conflict has resulted in a major humanitarian crisis in
Tigray: amongst the 6 million inhabitants of this regional State, 5.2 million are reportedly in need of
emergency humanitarian aid, and several hundred thousand people in a situation described as
catastrophic due to malnutrition, disease, and famine. Many international agencies and non-
governmental organizations (NGOs) are on the ground to provide the emergency aid needed in Tigray,
but the delivery of humanitarian aid is hampered by continued fighting and limitations on access to
Tigray imposed by the Ethiopian government. The announcement of the ceasefire on June 28, 2020,
brought hope that massive humanitarian aid can finally be delivered, but recent statements by Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed, denying the existence of famine in Tigray and accusing humanitarian aid
organizations of trying to support Tigrayan rebels, raise concerns that the government's strategy may
be to maintain a blockade of Tigray with the objective to topple the TPLF leadership. Such blockade
would further exacerbate an already catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Background of the conflict
Today's Ethiopia is a mosaic of a large diversity of people and languages with more than 80 ethnic
groups, composed of historically very different territories. The origin of Ethiopia goes back to the
kingdom of Aksum which emerged in the 1st century in the highlands region, whose kings adopted
Christianity in the 4th century, which was the origin of the Tewahedo Orthodox Church gathering today
almost half of the Ethiopians. The highlands region, which covers only a third of Ethiopia's present
territory, is the historical heart of the country. The remainder of present-day Ethiopia comprises
peripheral regions that only became part of the Ethiopian state in the late 19th century, previously
composed of several States and a multitude of non-state societies with strong traditions of self-
governance.
Historically, Ethiopia has always been organized as a federation of kingdoms under the sovereignty of
an emperor called the "King of Kings”. It was not until the 19th century that Addis Ababa became the
capital and Menelik II (emperor from 1889 to 1913) imposed centralism under the predominance of
the Amharic culture and language, breaking with the long tradition of federal governance of kingdoms
and autonomous communities. Emperor Haile Selassie (who ruled from 1930 to 1974) and the military-
communist dictatorship of Colonel Mengistu from 1974 to 1991 continued the same logic of
authoritarian centralism. After the overthrow of the Mengistu regime in 1991, the new government,
composed of an alliance of several ethnic political parties dominated by the Tigrayans of the TPLF,
decentralized the country by establishing a federation of peoples, thus reviving the historical tradition

-i-
of federalism, after decades of centralizing and authoritarian policies had failed. The Tigrayan TPLF
party, which had played the leading role in overthrowing the communist dictatorship, dominated
political life but over the past decade has gradually transferred positions to representatives of other
ethnic groups, for example Hailemariam Desalegn, who is from the Wolaytta ethnic group, became
Prime Minister in 2012 following the death of Tigrayan Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. In 2018, faced
with growing protests fueled by the demands of the country's majority Amhara and Omoro ethnic
groups, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, and parliament elected Abiy Ahmed, of
Amhara origin on his mother's side and Oromo on his father's, as a way out of the crisis.
Abiy Ahmed said he wanted to unify Ethiopians by running the country in a centralized manner in order
to eliminate inter-ethnic tensions. He also implemented liberal economic reforms, breaking with the
previous economic policy based on state intervention. This led to escalating tensions with the TPLF:
the signing of a peace and cooperation agreement with neighboring Eritrea, which gave back territories
of North Tigray to the Eritreans, corruption trials targeting Tigrayan leaders, reorganizations in the
government coalition, renamed the "Prosperity Party", with increased internal tensions that resulted
in the departure of Tigrayan members, postponement of the 2020 national elections due to the COVID
crisis, which was contested by Tigrayan leaders who saw it as a maneuver by Abiy Ahmed to stay in
power, and the holding of elections in Tigray regional state against the decision of the central
government. This escalation led to a complete breakdown in relations between Addis Ababa and the
Tigray leaders, and then to the armed conflict that began in early November 2020.
The deep origins of the conflict
The conflict between the central government and the Tigray leaders has a much deeper origin than
the sequence of events since 2018: an ideological confrontation over how Ethiopia should define itself,
that is the sharing of power between the central government and local authorities. Two approaches
have been in competition in Ethiopia for more than a century: a federal approach based on the
country's multi-ethnic tradition and history, leaving a large degree of autonomy to the different
peoples and communities under the aegis of a central government that manages these different
autonomous units. This is the approach advocated by the TPLF, although its leaders probably did not
give enough room for the other ethnic political parties when they were at the head of the governing
coalition. The other approach, implemented by Abiy Ahmed, defends the vision of a unified State
around a central government based in Addis Ababa as a solution to eliminate inter-ethnic conflicts,
based on an imaginary ideal of a unified historical Ethiopia. It appears this ideology leads to the
opposite of what is intended, namely the disintegration of the society.
Perhaps the lessons of the conflict in Ethiopia should be a source of reflection for the leaders of the
European Union, which is the scene of ideological confrontations that have certain common points
with Ethiopia, even though the historical and human contexts are of course completely different.

- ii -
1. INTRODUCTION
This document presents the context, causes and consequences of the civil war in Ethiopia that broke
out in November 2020, between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Tigray Defense
Forces (TDF) in the northern national regional State of Tigray1.
A preliminary analysis of the human, political, geographical, and historical context of Ethiopia is
necessary to understand the causes, stakes, and consequences of this conflict.

2. HUMAN, POLITICAL, AND GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT

Population
Ethiopia is a multi-ethnic and multilingual country with more than 80 ethnicities. It is the second most
populous country on the African continent after Nigeria. In 2020, its population was estimated at
approximately 114 million. Ethiopia's 80 ethnic groups are extremely unequal in numerical and
territorial importance. Based on the 2007 census, the Oromos and the Amharas, representing 34.5
percent and 26.9 percent of the population, respectively, are the most important demographic
entities. Somalis (6.2%), Tigrays (6.1%), Sidamas (4.0%) Gurages (2.5%), Welaytas (2.3%), Hadiyas
(1.7%), Afars (1.7%), and Gamos (1.5%) together account for 26% of Ethiopians.2 The remaining 13%
comprises a multitude of ethnicities. In the South of the country, the regional State called "Southern
Peoples, Nationalities and Nations" is by itself a federation of over 45 ethnic groups.3
Until recently, the country was a factor of regional stability, surrounded by countries at war or in crisis:
the two Sudanese states to the West, Eritrea to the north and Somalia to the Southeast. It is the second
largest contributor of troops to the United Nations. Ethiopia is the second largest host country for
refugees in Africa. At the beginning of 2020, it was hosting more than 735,000 refugees, of which
100,000 arrived in 2019. 99% of the refugees are from the four neighboring countries: South Sudan
(329,000), Somalia (191,600), Eritrea (139,300) and Sudan (42,300). 4
Geography
Ethiopia, with an area of 1,106,000 km2, is "the roof of Africa": the Ethiopian-Eritrean highlands form
two vast expanses separated by the great East African Rift Valley. The western part of the highlands is
divided into two rainfall regimes: in the North (where Tigray is located), between 600 and 800 mm of
rainfall that falls between June and September, and in the South, between 1 and 2 m per year, spread
over eight to ten months. A steep 2,000-meter escarpment marks the boundary between the highlands
to the West and the Afar Triangle to the East, an arid depression. To the Southeast lies the Ogaden

1
According to the well-established rules of official nomenclature, "National Regional State" is the official name
of the autonomous territories that make up the Federal State of Ethiopia. For simplicity, the term "regional
State" is used in this paper. The terms "Region" or "Province" often used in publications about Ethiopia are
incorrect. (source: interview with Dr. Wolbert G.C. Smidt, specialist in ethnohistory and socio-political
structures of ethnic groups in Ethiopia and Eritrea).
2
Republic of Ethiopia, Population Census Commission, “Statistical Report of the 2007 Population and Housing
Census”, p. 16 [online], 2008. december, [2021.06.16]. URL:
https://www.ethiopianreview.com/pdf/001/Cen2007_firstdraft(1).pdf
3
Groupes interparlementaires d'amitié France – Pays de la Corne de l’Afrique, « Le fédéralisme
ethnolinguistique en Éthiopie », [online], 2016.04.01, [2021.06.10], Source: Senat.fr.
URL: https://www.senat.fr/ga/ga132/ga132_mono.html#toc26
4
UNHCR, « UNHCR seeks support for refugees and hosts in Ethiopia », [online], 2020.01.24, [2021.06.10],
URL: https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing/2020/1/5e2ab8ec4/unhcr-seeks-support-refugees-hosts-
ethiopia.html#:~:text=UNHCR%2C%20the%20UN%20Refugee%20Agency,million%20Ethiopian%20hosts%20in
%202020.

-1-
plateau, a vast semi-desert area (less than 250 mm of annual rainfall). North of the Blue Nile, the
highlands fall sharply on an arid depression of the Sudanese confines. 5
Ethiopia is a landlocked country. Prior to 1991, Ethiopia had access to the Red Sea, which it lost
following the independence of Eritrea.

Reliefs of Ethiopia

Political system
Ethiopia has been a federal republic since 1994, with the official name "Federal Democratic Republic
of Ethiopia," subdivided into nine ethnically based regional States ("Killil"), each with a large degree of
autonomy, and two autonomous cities with regional state status (Addis Ababa, Dirre Daoua). More
information on the circumstances and reasons for the creation of this administrative in 1994 is
presented below in Chapter 4 on the history of Ethiopia.

5
Jean CHAVAILLON, Jean DORESSE, Éloi FICQUET, Alain GASCON, Jean LECLANT, Hervé LEGRAND,
Jacqueline PIRENNE, R. SCHNEIDER, « ÉTHIOPIE », [online], [2021.06.10], Source: Encyclopædia Universalis.
URL: https://www.universalis.fr/encyclopedie/ethiopie/

-2-
 Administrative division of Ethiopia into regional states
(Source: Atlas Encyclopædia Universalis)

Contrary to the usual view provided by many historians, and notably taught in the country's schools
and universities6, Ethiopia until recently was never a state organized around a central power based in
Addis Ababa. Historical Ethiopia was composed of a multitude of autonomous regions and
communities, under the sovereignty of an emperor called "King of Kings”. Addis Ababa was only
founded in 1881 and only became the capital of Ethiopia at the end of the 19th century. It was the
desire of national sovereignty’s recognition and the need for the government to assert its centrality
that contributed to the dynamic development of the city. 7
Even today, the various ethnic communities living outside the major cities, which make up about 80
percent of Ethiopia's population, organize a significant part of their lives according to their own local
laws and customs, in a hybrid relationship with the laws of the Federal State, sometimes in conflict
with them, other times in balance. The Ethiopian state is composed of historically very different
territories, with the highlands region that constituted historical Ethiopia (only one-third of today's
Ethiopia) and the southern and southwestern regions that were occupied by the Ethiopian State in the
late 19th century, where there were several former States and a significant number of non-state
societies with strong traditions of self-governance. 6
Religions
Religion is very important in Ethiopia, with about 98% of the population claiming a religious affiliation.8
The distribution of religions is as follows based on the 2007 census 9:

6
Interviews with Dr. Wolbert G.C. Smidt, specialist in ethnohistory and socio-political structures of ethnic
groups in Ethiopia and Eritrea, and Dr. Balázs Szélinger, historian specialist in Ethiopia.
7
Serge Sergedewel, « Histoire d’Addis-Abeba », [online], 2019.01.02, [2021.06.10]. URL:
https://aresae.hypotheses.org/1634
8
Aid to Church in Need, « Religious Freedom in the World, Report 2021 », [online], [2021.06.10]. URL:
https://acninternational.org/religiousfreedomreport/reports/et/
9
Republic of Ethiopia, Population Census Commission, “Statistical Report of the 2007 Population and Housing
Census”, p. 17, [online], 2008. december, [2021.06.16]. URL:
https://www.ethiopianreview.com/pdf/001/Cen2007_firstdraft(1).pdf

-3-
 • Christians: 62.8% of the population, broken down as follows: 43.5% Orthodox, 18.6% Evangelical
and 0.7% Catholic
• Muslims: 33.9%, mostly Sunni
• Traditional religions: 2.6%
• Other: 0.6%
According to more recent data in the 2021 report on Religious Freedom published by Aid to the Church
in Need, 59.8 percent of Ethiopians are Christians, 34.4 percent are Muslims, and 5.6 percent are
followers of traditional religions.10
The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church is not only a religious organization, but also an institution
whose origins date back to the 4th century, very closely linked to the history of the country and to
Ethiopian identity in the highlands region that constitutes the historical part of Ethiopia (see Chapter 4
on the history of Ethiopia).11
The evangelicals appeared from the 19th century onwards and have made significant progress since
1984. 12
Catholicism, despite several attempts to introduce it since the 16th century, has only been firmly
established since the 1830s, with French and Italian missionaries playing a key role in its
establishment.13
The presence of Muslims has existed since the 7th century at the beginning of Islam, when some of
Mohammed's followers fled to the kingdom of Aksum because of persecution of the first Muslims by
the polytheistic chiefs of Mecca. Sufism has a long tradition, but the conservative Salafi movement
was established in 1930 and has been spreading since the 1960s. 14
Under a law introduced in February 2009, called the Charities and Societies Proclamation, all religious
denominations are considered charitable organizations and as such must renew their application for
registration with the Ministry of Justice every five years in order to be recognized as a legal entity.
However, the Orthodox Church and the Ethiopian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs are exempt from
this requirement, as they are recognized as official religions.10
The Ethiopian Orthodox Church is particularly dominant in the regional States of Tigray and Amhara
and in parts of Oromiyaa. Sunni Muslims are dominant in Oromiyaa, Somali and Afar regional States.
Evangelical and Pentecostal Christians are mainly present in regions outside the historical part of
Ethiopia, particularly in the Southwest.10 The Catholic Church is organized into 13 eparchies 15 spread
throughout the country.13 A large proportion of the Catholics are in the South of the country. Northern
Tigray has a relatively large Catholic community in the Addigrat region, where the only Catholic eparchy
in Tigray is located. In the "Woreda" (District) of Irob in the far North of Tigray, there is an ethnic
community of the same name of about 30,000 people, most of whom are Catholics, and whose
territory lies in the Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute zone.16

10
Aid to Church in Need, « Religious Freedom in the World, Report 2021 », [online], [2021.06.10]. URL:
https://acninternational.org/religiousfreedomreport/reports/et/
11
Republic of Ethiopia, Population Census Commission, “Statistical Report of the 2007 Population and Housing
Census”, p. 17, [online], 2008. december, [2021.06.16]. URL:
https://www.ethiopianreview.com/pdf/001/Cen2007_firstdraft(1).pdf
12
Serge Dewel, « Mouvement charismatique et pentecôtisme en Ethiopie, Une progression fulgurante ? »,
[online], 2014, [2021.06.10], Source : Afrique contemporaine 2014/4 (n° 252), pages 140 à 142. URL :
https://www.cairn.info/revue-afrique-contemporaine-2014-4-page-140.htm
13
Interview with a representative of the Catholic Church in Ethiopia
14
Open Doors, « Ethiopia, Country Dossier », [online], 2020. 12, [2021.06.10]. URL:
https://www.opendoorsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Ethiopia-WWL-2021-Country-dossier.pdf
15
In the Eastern Churches, eparchy means diocese
16
« Muruts Beyene: vivre dans la frontière entre l'Éthiopie et l'Erythrée » [online], 2019.09.17, [2021.06.11].
Source: Al Jazeera. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbML2sFbJpc

-4-
The following maps illustrate the proportion of major religions in each of the regional states, based on
the 2007 census.
Geographical distribution of the main religions

-5-
3. KEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DATA OF THE COUNTRY

Chiffres clefs concernant la population de l’Ethiopie

Number of inhabitants (2020 68,7 million

114,96 million Christians
estimate) (59,8%)

39,5 million
Urban/rural distribution (2018) 20% - 80% Muslims
(34,4%)

Internal Displaced People (2019, 6,4 million

3,1 million Traditional religions
before Tigray crisis) (5.6%)

0,2 million
Refugees 0,735 million Other
(0,2%)

GDP per capita at purchasing power 2 318 USD

Population growth 2,6%
parity (2019) 172nd out of 189 countries

Literacy rate 51,7% Human Development Index* (2020) 0,485

173rd out of 189 countries

* The Human Development Index (HDI) is a measure created by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). It is measured
on the basis of three main criteria: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, life expectancy of citizens and level of education
measured from age 15.

Human Development Index by regional States

Source: Global Data Lab, [online], [2021.06.03],

URL: https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/shdi/

-6-
 Population Growth
(million inhabitants)
120.

110.

100.

90.

80.

70.

60.

50.

40.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Graph established from the data from « UNFPA World Population Dashboard,
Ethiopia », [online], [2019.06.08], URL: https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-
population/ET

4. SOME ELEMENTS ON ETHIOPIA’S HISTORY

The kingdom of Aksum and the birth of Christianity in the Horn of Africa
The kingdom of Aksum was an important state in the Horn of Africa, which was formed from the 1st
century around the city of Aksum and continued until the 10th century. The Aksumite kingdom was
concentrated in the highlands of Tigray and Eritrea. Territorial control was highly variable, and
sometimes included territories in northern Sudan, Yemen and for a long period some entry points
along the Red Sea coast. Around the year 440, the Axumite king Ezana adopted Christianity and
subsequent kings were also Christians. This adoption of Christianity by the kings was probably decided
to strengthen ties with the Byzantines who were their main allies.17

The Christianity adopted by the kingdom of Aksum, which is at the origin of today’s Eritrean and
Ethiopian Orthodox churches, became "monophysite" 18 following the Council of Chalcedon (451).
The principle of the double divine and human nature of Christ confirmed by the Council of Chalcedon
was not accepted by several Christian currents, in particular by the monophysite current among the
Christians of Armenia, certain communities of the Near East, as well as the Coptic Christians of Egypt,
with whom the Church of the Kingdom of Aksum was in relation.19

17
Interview with Dr. Wolbert G.C. Smidt, specialist in ethnohistory and socio-political structures of ethnic
groups in Ethiopia and Eritrea.
18
Monophysites assert that Jesus Christ has only one nature and that it is divine, the latter having absorbed his
human nature. This doctrine was condemned as heretical at the Council of Chalcedon in 451, according to
which Jesus Christ is both true God and true man in "one person and two natures, without confusion”. (Source:
https://eglise.catholique.fr/glossaire/monophysisme/)
19
Hervé LEGRAND, « CHALCÉDOINE CONCILE DE (451) », Encyclopædia Universalis [online], [2021.06.10]. URL :
https://www.universalis.fr/encyclopedie/concile-de-chalcedoine/

-7-
Aksum is also the presumed location of the Ark of the Covenant. According to legend, the Ark was
brought to Aksum and deposited in the Church of St. Mary of Zion by Menelik, the legendary son of
King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba according to Ethiopian tradition. 20
This Christian heritage explains the current richness of the Orthodox heritage in the highlands area of
Ethiopia, especially in Tigray, where there are a large number of ancient churches and monasteries
sometimes perched on high cliffs. The highlands region remained independent and protected from
outside influences over the centuries even after the extinction of the Aksum Kingdom, which allowed
the preservation of the original specificities and traditions of the Ethiopian Orthodox religion, still alive
today.
Evolution of Ethiopia from the 19th century to the present day
19th century - mid 20th century
The progressive colonization of the African continent during the 19th century by the European powers
involved the entire African continent, except Ethiopia, which was the only area of Africa not to have
been colonized, apart from a short period of Italian occupation between 1935 and 1941. During this
period, Mussolini's Italy faced fierce resistance, which in 1941 regained control of the country with the
help of the British.
Ethiopia in its current borders is a relatively modern creation. Historical Ethiopia was about one-third
the size of present-day Ethiopia and covered the geographical territory of the highlands between Addis
Ababa and Asmara (capital of Eritrea), including Tigray. It was not until the end of the 19th century
that Ethiopia, through the conquests of Emperor Menelik II, began to colonize the peripheral regions
constituted as independent sultanates or kingdoms, which were gradually absorbed by Ethiopia.21 The
borders of Ethiopia in 1941 were almost identical to those of today. In 1962, Eritrea was also annexed
to Ethiopia, until its independence in 1993.

20
Bernadette Arnaud, „Cachée en Éthiopie ? Dérobée par les Templiers ? Le mythe de l'Arche d'Alliance est
encore bien vivace”, 2019.01.04, [online], [2021.06.10], Source: Sciences et Avenir. URL:
https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/archeo-paleo/le-mythe-de-l-arche-d-alliance-encore-bien-vivace_130438
21
Interviews with Dr. Wolbert G.C. Smidt, specialist in ethnohistory and socio-political structures of ethnic
groups in Ethiopia and Eritrea, and Dr. Balázs Szélinger, historian specialist in Ethiopia.

-8-
 Evolution of Ethiopia's borders22

Source : The history of Africa every year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzKejJIwieE)

The historical Ethiopia of the highlands has always been very diverse, organized in a sort of federation
of kingdoms, under the sovereignty of the "King of Kings". It was not until the reign of Menelik II that
the creation of a centralized state was initiated. The will to modernize of Menelik II and later of his
successor Haile Selassie took the form of an imposed centralism, under the predominance of the
Amharic culture and language.23

22
The coastal part that later became Eritrean was originally Egyptian and was transferred by the British to the
Italians around 1885
23
Groupes interparlementaires d'amitié France – Pays de la Corne de l’Afrique, « Le fédéralisme
ethnolinguistique en Éthiopie », [online], 2016.04.01, [2021.06.10], Source: Senat.fr.
URL: https://www.senat.fr/ga/ga132/ga132_mono.html#toc26

-9-
 THE QUESTION OF ERITREA
In 1952, a confederation between Eritrea and Ethiopia was created under the aegis of the United
Nations and placed under the sovereignty of the Ethiopian crown. The creation of this confederation
put an end to the British administration of Eritrea, which had been in force since the end of the
Second World War.
However, the centralizing will of Emperor Haile Selassie gradually led to greater and greater control
of Eritrea by the Ethiopian central power, which ultimately led in 1962 to the annexation of Eritrea
to Ethiopia, judged illegal by several political actors in the region and some specialists in
international law, who considered that this annexation was not in compliance with the 1952 UN Act.
This annexation exacerbated the demands of separatist movements, including the Eritrean People's
Liberation Front (EPLF). In May 1991, the EPLF led by Isaias Afewerqi took control of Eritrea. Isaias
Afewerqi installed an interim government until the 1993 referendum, in which Eritreans voted
overwhelmingly for independence. Eritrea was declared an independent country in April 1993, and
the independence was immediately recognized by the government in Addis Ababa. However,
relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia deteriorated rapidly. In May 1998, skirmishes on the border
with Eritrea in small, disputed areas (Badme and, further east, Alitena, Zalanbessa and Bure)
degenerated into violent aerial shelling (in Mekelle and Addigrat by the Eritrean air force, and on a
military base in Asmara by the Ethiopian air force). According to some sources, the main reason for
this war was not the border dispute, but rather economic tensions, as well as relations of mistrust
and jealousy between the leaders of the two countries, which had their origins in the old rivalries
during the years of the maquis under the Mengistu dictatorship. 24 The war lasted two years and
claimed between 70,000 and 100,000 lives. On December 12, 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a
peace agreement in Algiers, but despite this, Ethiopia did not recognize the borders established in
2002 by the Boundary Commission created following the Algiers agreements, and the two countries
remained enemies until the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
Since taking power, Isaias Afewerqi has imposed a dictatorship considered one of the most repressive
in the world, where basic human rights are not respected. Amnesty International cites the figure of
10,000 political prisoners. In its global index on Christian persecution, Open Doors ranks the country
sixth in terms of the level of persecution against Christians. Despite the government's official
recognition of three Christian denominations (Eritrean Orthodox Church, Catholic Church, and
Lutheran Church) in addition to Sunni Islam, the government constantly intervenes in their affairs to
limit and direct their activities.25
Many Eritreans have fled this dictatorship, particularly to Ethiopia, including the four main refugee
camps in Tigray of May Ayni, Adi Harush, Shimelba and Hitsats, where in 2020, according to the
UNHCR, nearly 100,000 Eritreans were living. 26 One of the motivations of Eritrean refugees is to
escape the compulsory military service that has been in place for an indefinite period since the
beginning of the military conflict with Ethiopia in 1998. The indefinite national service is tearing apart
many families and destroying the social network of the country. Young girls are married off early to
avoid conscription and many children grow up without both parents. Indefinite military service has
been maintained despite the signing of the peace agreement with Addis Ababa in 2018. 27

24
Jean CHAVAILLON, Jean DORESSE, Éloi FICQUET, Alain GASCON, Jean LECLANT, Hervé LEGRAND,
Jacqueline PIRENNE, R. SCHNEIDER, « ÉTHIOPIE », [online], [2021.06.10], Source: Encyclopædia Universalis.
URL: https://www.universalis.fr/encyclopedie/ethiopie/
25
United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, « Annual Report 2021 », p 20, 2021. April,
[online], [2021.06.22]. URL: https://www.uscirf.gov/sites/default/files/2021-
04/2021%20Annual%20Report_0.pdf
26
UNHCR, „Urgence Tigré/Ethiopie”, 2020.11.30, [online], [2021.06.10], Source: UNHCR. URL:
https://www.unhcr.org/fr/urgence-tigre-ethiopie.html
27
Reuters Staff, « Eritrea's military service still 'repressive' despite peace deal », 2019.08.09, [online],
[2021.06.22]. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eritrea-rights-idUSKCN1UZ090

- 10 -
 The fact that the Eritrean people are under a brutal dictatorship inevitably leads to personal trauma
and psychological distress, which, coupled with the fact that the Tigrayans are considered long-time
enemies of the Eritreans, likely explains how Eritrean soldiers were able to commit the atrocities
described by many testimonies during the occupation of Tigray beginning in November 2020. The
testimonies suggest that the atrocities were not committed spontaneously but were ordered by
Eritrean military commanders in charge of implementing the strategy of the Eritrean dictatorship.
1970 - 1991
The reign of Emperor Haile Selassie, who had ruled the country since 1930, came to an end with the
1974 revolution, which was taken over by the DERG military junta quickly controlled by Colonel
Mengistu Haile Mariam, who imposed a Marxist dictatorship on the country for almost 20 years,
continuing the same logic of authoritarian centralism.
In the face of this dictatorship, regional nationalist movements were organized, among which the
Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) played the
main role in the resistance to the regime and later its overthrow in 1991. In 1989, under the initiative
of the TPLF, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was formed from an
alliance of four parties: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the Oromo People's Democratic
Organization (ODPO), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) and the Southern
Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEDPM).28
1991 - 2018
In 1991, rebel forces overthrew Mengistu and the EPRDF came to power. The new EPRDF government
broke with the centralizing policy that had been in place for decades, creating the Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia. The new constitution of 1994 reorganized the administrative division of Ethiopia
into eight regional States and two autonomous cities with regional state status, Addis Ababa and Dirre
Daoua. It was the clear failure of the centralizing and authoritarian policy around a dominant ethnic
group, the Amharas, that led the country's new leader, Meles Zenawi, from the Tigray ethnic group, to
decentralize the country into a federal republic, with the motto "managing unity in diversity".28 Since
1994, the EPRDF coalition has always won elections.
This federalism is based on ethnicity and language, with each regional State being named not by a
geographic term but by the name of an ethnical group (except for the southern regional State, which
is referred to as "Southern Peoples, Nationalities and Nations"). The ethnic criterion on which the
redrawing of the Ethiopian administrative map was based may be considered artificial, since none of
the regional States is ethnically homogeneous. However, this administrative redrawing reflects the
new government's desire to create a federation of peoples.28 The 1994 constitution also provides that
regional States have the right to self-determination and secession.28

28
Groupes interparlementaires d'amitié France – Pays de la Corne de l’Afrique, « Le fédéralisme
ethnolinguistique en Éthiopie », [online], 2016.04.01, [2021.06.10], Source: Senat.fr.
URL: https://www.senat.fr/ga/ga132/ga132_mono.html#toc26

- 11 -
 Regional States created in 1994

Administrative division of Ethiopia into Provinces until 1993

The difference between the boundaries of the new Tigray Regional State and those of the former
Tigray Province is useful to understand some aspects of the Tigray conflict that began in November
2020. The overlay of the pre- and post-1994 administrative maps, shown in the map below, shows
that Tigray Regional State (green) extends further West than the pre-1994 Tigray Province, into
territory formerly occupied by Begmender Province (Zone 1), and the southern end of present-day
Tigray includes territory called "Raya" formerly included in Wello Province (Zone 2). The border
region around Badme, traditionally administered by the Tigrayan authorities but attached to Eritrea
in 2002 by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission, is also visible on this overlay (Area 3). In
addition to the Badme border region, the 2002 Boundary Commission ruled on other territories in

- 12 -
 Tigray disputed between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which are too small to be shown on the map below,
but can be seen on a more detailed map in Chapter 6.
Tigray Province before 1994 was the result of an artificial administrative division made by the central
State. It included Afar territories that had never been governed by the Tigray. It was for this reason
that in 1994 the TPLF decided to return these territories to the Afar. On the other hand, Haile Selassie
had subjected the western territories to the multi-ethnic Begemder province, but in 1994 it was
decided to attach them to the Tigray regional State, because these territories were Tigrinnya-
speaking.
Overlay of administrative boundaries before and after 1994

Since the Tigrayans played the main role in overthrowing the communist dictatorship in 1991, the TPLF
dominated political life, although they did not exclude the other ethnic parties of the EPRDF, to whom
they gradually transferred some positions, especially over the past ten years. Nevertheless, the TPLF
ensured that it retained control of the security forces, the police and the army, which was largely made
up of Tigrayan soldiers.29 The fact that the Tigrayans make up only 6 percent of the Ethiopian
population was a source of tension with representatives of other ethnic groups.
In 2012, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had led the country since 1991, passed away. He was
replaced by his Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. The new Prime Minister was from the
Wolaytta ethnic group; this is a good example of the transfer of responsibilities to other ethnic parties
intended by the TPLF.
2018 - 2020: Abiy Ahmed comes to power and political and ethnic tensions escalate
The government led by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn faced growing protests fueled by
demands from the country's majority Oromo and Amhara peoples. The protests were harshly
repressed, with a state of emergency declared in February 2018. On February 15, Hailemariam
Desalegn resigned. On April 2, parliament elected Abiy Ahmed, the leader of the Oromo People's
Democratic Organization, as Prime Minister. 30 Abiy Ahmed is a Pentecostal Christian, of Oromo origin
on his father's side and Amhara on his mother's. Abiy Ahmed says he wants to unify Ethiopians and
run the country in a centralized manner to eliminate inter-ethnic tensions. This approach amounts to
a return to the centralist politics of pre-1991.

29
Groupes interparlementaires d'amitié France – Pays de la Corne de l’Afrique, « Le fédéralisme
ethnolinguistique en Éthiopie », [online], 2016.04.01, [2021.06.10], Source: Senat.fr.
URL: https://www.senat.fr/ga/ga132/ga132_mono.html#toc26
30
« ETHIOPIE, chronologie contemporaine », [online], [2021.06.10], Source: Encyclopædia Universalis. URL:
https://www.universalis.fr/chronologie/ethiopie/

- 13 -
After Abiy Ahmed came to power, tensions between the new Prime Minister and the TPLF began to
escalate inexorably:
• In July 2018, Abiy Ahmed signed an Agreement on Peace, Friendship and Comprehensive
Cooperation with Eritrean President Isaias Afewerqi that ended the state of war between the
two countries, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize a few months later. Addis Ababa
unconditionally recognized the borders established in 2002 following the Algiers agreements.
The peace treaty is barely more than a page long and makes no mention of the details and
modalities of the creation of the new border.31 This signing means that several territories
North of Tigray will eventually have to be returned to Eritrea.
• In late 2018, several members of the "old guard," military and senior government officials,
were arrested and prosecuted for corruption and human rights violations. The TPLF saw this
as a move to attack the Tigrayan elite.33
• In December 2019, the EPRDF coalition was reorganized and its name changed to the
"Prosperity Party" (PP), comprising the four former EPRDF parties, joined by parties from the
other five regional States that had previously been allied with the EPRDF but were not part of
it. Abiy Ahmed's goal was to unify the nation and break with the previous state-controlled
economic policy by implementing liberal economic reforms, leaving more room to the private
sector. As a result of increasing internal tensions, the TPLF left the reorganized coalition,
believing that the federal policy they had implemented since 1991 was a better way to deal
with the country's deep ethnic divisions.32 The TPLF also felt that the liberal outlook of the
Prosperity Party was at odds with their approach to economic development based on State
intervention, which they believed had helped ensure Ethiopia's economic growth. 33
• The government postponed the August 2020 elections 34, officially because of the COVID
pandemic. The TPLF did not accept the postponement, seeing it as a move by Abiy Ahmed to
stay in power. The election was however maintained in Tigray, won overwhelmingly by the
TPLF and its leader Debretsion Gebremichael. This situation led to each side considering the
other illegitimate: the Addis Ababa government did not recognize the result of the Tigray
election organized against the central government’s decision, and the TPLF considered the
Addis Ababa government to be illegitimate because it had overstayed its official term. This led
to a breakdown in relations between the central government and the Tigray leadership. TPLF
representatives no longer participated in the work of parliament.
This escalation of tensions inevitably led to the outbreak of armed conflict in early November 2020.

5. CHRONOLOGY OF THE CONFLICT

It is difficult, if not impossible, to know which protagonist "fired first”. In fact, it does not really matter,
as the outbreak of the conflict was the culmination of two years of growing tension between the two

31
Marsai Viktor, Polgárháború Etiópiában: a 2020-as tigráji válságról, 2020.12.11, [online], [2021.05.30],
Source: Stratégiai Védelmi Kutatóintézet. URL: https://svkk.uni-nke.hu/document/svkk-uni-nke-hu-
1506332684763/SVKI_Elemz%C3%A9sek_2020_25_Polg%C3%A1rh%C3%A1bor%C3%BA%20Eti%C3%B3pi%C3
%A1ban_a%202020-as%20tigr%C3%A1ji%20v%C3%A1ls%C3%A1gr%C3%B3l_(Mars%20ai%20V.).pdf
32
« Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: Debretsion Gebremichael, the man at the heart of the conflict », 2020.11.22,
[online], [2021.06.15], Source: BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54972908
33
Kalkidan Yibeltal, „Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed gets a new ruling party”, 2019.11.22, [online], [2021.06.15], Source:
BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/afrique/region-50524566
34
The elections were finally held on June 21, 2021, but as of the date this document was finalized (July 1, 2021),
the election results had still not been published.

- 14 -
parties. According to some sources, the Amhara armed forces had been preparing since 2018 to
intervene militarily in western Tigray. 35
What is known is that on November 3, 2020, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) attacked several federal
military bases of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). Debretsion Gebremichael said this was
a preemptive operation36 in response to the regrouping of federal troops on Tigray's southern border37
and the central government's plan to launch a military operation to arrest Tigray's leaders 38.
In response to the attacks on the armed bases, Abiy Ahmed declared a six-month state of emergency
in Tigray on November 4 and announced the launch of a military operation. 36 On November 5, the
federal army began to conduct air strikes.
According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), the Tigray authorities, led by the dominant political
party TPLF, have a large military force, estimated to be around 250,000 men combined 39. This includes
(1) the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), which is the regional State’s army commanded by Gen Tsadqan
Gebretensae, a military strategist who led the fight against the Mengistu dictatorship, (2) well-trained
village militias, and (3) the regional police force that has joined the TDF. 40 In addition, the TPLF enjoys
significant support from the six million Tigrayans. Indeed, the TPLF is deeply rooted in the people of
Tigray, as it is not only a political party, but also an organization that has implemented many
development programs in Tigray over the past 30 years and has defended the interests of the
Tigrayans.41
These large Tigrayan military forces, which were hardened during the rebellion against the Mengistu
dictatorship and by the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea, probably explain that the Amhara armed forces
and the Eritrean army joined the Ethiopian army in the land occupation of Tigray, the federal army
being probably weak compared to the Tigrayan forces. In addition, many Tigrayan soldiers left the
federal ENDF and joined the Tigrayan forces in November 2020 at the start of the conflict.
The Ethiopian and Eritrean governments initially denied that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) had
entered Tigray, but it was not until more than five months later, on April 17, 2021, that Eritrean
President Isaias Afewerqi finally acknowledged the presence of Eritrean troops while announcing that
they would soon be withdrawn, a few weeks after Abiy Ahmed admitted that Eritrean soldiers were
present in Tigray.42
On November 12, 2020, the Ethiopian government claimed to have seized the western part of Tigray.
In the following days, the main towns in Tigray were gradually occupied by Ethiopian and Eritrean
forces:

35
Nerea Berhan and Saba Mah’derom, “Ethnic Cleansing in Western Tigray by Amhara Forces”, May 2021,
[online], 2021.07.01, Source: Omna Tigray. URL: https://omnatigray.org/ethnic-cleansing-in-western-tigray-by-
amhara-forces/
36
« Tigray crisis: How a soldier survived an 11-hour gun battle », 2020.12.10, [online], [2021.06.15], Source:
BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55215431
37
« Tigray crisis: Ethiopia orders military response after army base seized », 2020.11.04, [online], [2021.06.15],
Source: BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088
38
According to unverified oral sources, military aircraft flew from Addis Ababa to Tigray on November 3 with
orders to arrest the Tigray leaders.
39
« Clashes over Ethiopia’s Tigray Region: Getting to a Ceasefire and National Dialogue », 2020.11.05, [online],
[2021.06.15], Source: CRISIS GROUP, URL: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/ethiopias-
clash-tigray-getting-ceasefire-and-national-dialogue
40
“Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae: Ethiopia's Tigray rebel mastermind”, 2021.07.01, [onlines], [2021.07.01], Source:
BBC News. -URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57583208
41
Interview with Dr. Balázs Szélinger, historian and specialist on Ethiopia
42
« L'Érythrée reconnaît à son tour la présence de ses soldats au Tigray et promet de les retirer », 2021.04.17,
[online], [2021.06.15], Source: France 24. URL: https://www.france24.com/fr/afrique/20210417-conflit-au-
tigr%C3%A9-l-%C3%A9rythr%C3%A9e-reconna%C3%AEt-la-pr%C3%A9sence-de-ses-soldats-et-promet-de-les-
retirer

- 15 -
 • On November 23, the Ethiopian government announced that its forces controlled most of
Tigray regional State and were advancing toward the capital city of Mekelle.
• On November 28, the federal army announced it had taken control of Mekelle, and Abiy
Ahmed declared the military confrontation over.
The reality was quite different: the TDF still retained control of large areas, especially in the hard-to-
reach mountain areas, so that fighting continued over much of Tigray.43
On May 1, 2021, the Ethiopian government classified the TPLF as a terrorist organization44, suggesting
that the authorities of Addis Ababa have no intention of seeking a political solution to the crisis.
In June 2021, Tigrayan troops launched the "Alula" offensive. The TDF regained ground, in particular
Addigrat was recaptured on June 22, as well as Mekelle on June 28. On the same day, the ENDF military,
together with the Tigray interim administration that had been appointed by the federal government
in December 2020, fled the regional capital, and the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral
ceasefire in Tigray until the end of the farming season, which it had always refused to do until then.
This ceasefire was rejected on June 29 by the TPLF. 45 Therefore, it is to be expected that the TDF will
continue to reclaim the Tigray territories.
Based on several facts46, as well as recent statements made in late June 2021 by Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed himself, it seems likely that the government's strategy for the coming months is to maintain a
blockade of Tigray regional state, despite the ceasefire announcement. 47

6. CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONFLICT

Control of the Tigray territory
The maps below are a simplified representation of how control of Tigray has evolved in the aftermath
of the conflict, between November 2020 and May 2021. The actual situation is much more complex,
as many areas of Tigray are disputed between the TDF and Ethiopian and Eritrean forces (ENDF, EDF),
particularly in northern and central Tigray.
Eritrea took advantage of the conflict to annex areas of northern Tigray that the border commission
established under the Algiers agreements had granted them, particularly the Badme region and
northern Irob District, which until then had not been returned to them despite the signing of the July
2018 peace agreement between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afewerqi. But Eritrean forces have also
invaded northern and central Tigray far beyond this border line. By the end of June 2021, in the face
of the TDF's Alula offensive, Eritrean troops were reported to have withdrawn from central and

43
Agnes Aineah, „Catholic Priest in Troubled Tigray Region Says Ethiopia’s Situation Worsening Day by Day”,
[online], 2021.02.18, [2021.06.15], Source: Association for Catholic Information in Africa. URL:
https://www.aciafrica.org/news/3343/catholic-priest-in-troubled-tigray-region-says-ethiopias-situation-
worsening-day-by-day
44
« L'Éthiopie classe le TPLF et l'OLF-Shene comme organisations terroristes », 2021.05.01, [online],
[2021.06.16], Source: Anadolu Agency. URL: https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/afrique/l%C3%A9thiopie-classe-le-tplf-
et-lolf-shene-comme-organisations-terroristes/2226819
45
Maria Malagardis, « Éthiopie : «Alula», l’opération militaire qui a soudain fait basculer la guerre au Tigré »,
2021.06.29, [online], [2021.06.29], Source : Libération. URL :
https://www.liberation.fr/international/afrique/ethiopie-alula-loperation-militaire-qui-a-soudain-fait-basculer-
la-guerre-au-tigre-20210629_IJCIMWYERNCI7K6S2FZH3XA6JE/
46
George Monbiot, “The looming famine in Tigray is an avoidable catastrophe”, 2021.06.30, [online],
[2021.07.01], Source: The Guardian. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/30/famine-
tigray-ethiopia-war-crimes
47
Daniel Alemayehu, “Premier speaks out on some aid agencies hidden agenda”, 2021.06.26, [online],
[2021.07.01], Source: Ethiopian Herald. URL :
https://www.facebook.com/epaEnglish/photos/a.420894541816571/939985023240851

- 16 -
northern Tigray to the border areas near Eritrea. 48 They may seek to remain in northern Tigray beyond
the border established in 2002.
In the initial phase of the conflict, the Ethiopian army, with the support of Amhara military forces, took
control of the western part of Tigray, which before 1993 was part of the Amhara-dominated Begemder
Province, causing more than 60,000 people to flee to neighboring Sudan.49 In some towns, the Tigrayan
administration was expelled and replaced by Amhara administrations. The situation is similar in the
Raya-Rayuma region of southern Tigray, occupied by Amhara Fanno militias, where a new Amhara-
dominated administration has been established.50 In late June 2021, Amhara Regional State
authorities declared their intention not to evacuate these areas currently controlled by Amhara
Regional State Special Forces. 48 It is therefore to be expected that Tigrayan forces will seek to recover
these territories occupied by the Ahmara since November 2020.

48
« Ethiopia - Tigray Region Humanitarian Update - Flash Update (1 July 2021) », 2021.07.01., [online],
[2021.07.01], Source : OCHA. URL : https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-
update-flash-update-1-july-2021
49
« Many Tigray refugees entering Sudan with nothing but their clothesnews », [online], 2021.01.18,
[2021.06.15], Source: UN News. URL: https://news.un.org/en/audio/2021/01/1082402
50
Daniel Passport, « Where the Tigray conflict changed borders », 2021.02.01, [online], [2021.06.14], Source:
Passport Party. URL: https://passportparty.ch/2021/02/01/where-the-tigray-conflict-changed-borders/

- 17 -
Simplified maps of the evolution of the control of the Tigray from November 2020 to May 2021

SOURCES
Pre-November 2020 Map - Source: „Daniel Passport,
Tigray’s border conflicts explained”, 2020.11.20,
[online], [2021.06.14], Passport Party. URL:
https://passportparty.ch/2020/11/11/tigrays-border-
conflicts-explained/

January 2021 map – Source: “Where the Tigray

conflict changed borders”, 2021.02.01, [online],
[2021.06.14], Passport Party. URL:
https://passportparty.ch/2021/02/01/where-the-
tigray-conflict-changed-borders/

May 2021 map - Source: “Map of the conflict in the

Tigray region which started on 4 November
2020”,[online], [2021.06.29], @EthiopiaMap. URL :
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1
ukq3h-
fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&hl=en&ll=13.65873
1415399114%2C38.798856026833036&z=8

NB: The maps do not provide details of the extent of

military control by the TDF, Amhara forces, Ethiopian
(ENDF) and Eritrean (EDF) armies.

- 18 -
Exactions against civilians and clerics, looting
In a video posted on Twitter on May 8, 2021, by a member of an American charity organization, Abune
Mathias I, patriarch of the Tewahedo Orthodox Church of Ethiopia, belonging to the Tigray ethnic
group, denounced an ongoing genocide in Tigray. According to several Ethiopian media reports, the
secretary of the Holy Synod of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and the archbishop of the diocese of
Sidama and Gedeo, Abune Yosef, said that the video message of Abune Mathias I was his personal
view and did not represent the position of the Holy Synod.51
Although Tigray has been isolated from the world for several months due to the interruption of
internet and telephone communications and the ban on journalists entering the area, there have been
numerous testimonies by survivors on abuses committed against civilians, reported in particularly by
Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Although one must be cautious with such information
in wartime, the reliability of several sources of information makes it possible to affirm that serious
abuses were committed, in particular massacres of civilians and clerics, numerous rapes, as well as
looting and deterioration of properties, infrastructures and holy places. Most of the testimonies
concern abuses committed by the Eritrean military and the federal Ethiopian forces.
Amnesty International reported that in the days following the capture of Aksum on 19 November 2020,
Eritrean troops engaged in widespread looting of civilian properties and extrajudicial executions. From
November 28 to 29, 2020, Eritrean soldiers shot civilians in the street and conducted systematic house-
to-house searches, arbitrarily executing men and children. The massacre was carried out in retaliation
for an earlier attack by militiamen joined by residents armed with sticks and stones.52
Also in Aksum, Ethiopian federal troops and Amhara militias reportedly killed more than 750 people
who were gathered in Aksum's Mariam of Zion Cathedral on December 15, 2020.53
A fact-finding investigation undertaken by the investigative agency Bellingcat also revealed the
extrajudicial execution of civilians in the Aksum region by Ethiopian soldiers.54 Numerous other
testimonies report similar abuses against civilians and clerics.
In western Tigray, hundreds of civilians were executed in May Kadra when federal ENDF troops
supported by Amhara Regional State Special Forces and Amhara Fanno militias captured the town in
early November 2020. Initial reports indicated that hundreds of Amhara civilians were killed by
Tigrayan militants, but further investigations in March 2021, while confirming these initial reports, also
revealed that Amhara Fanno militias killed hundreds of Tigrayan civilians, and also evicted many
Tigrayan families from their homes.55
In Irob District, reliable sources report that many civilians from the predominantly Catholic Irob ethnic
group have been executed by Eritrean forces, and that people have fled into the mountains to save
their lives.

51
« News: Ethiopian Orthodox Church Synod distances itself from patriarch’s remarks on Tigray », 2021.05.10,
[online], [2021.06.15], Source : Addis Standard. URL: https://addisstandard.com/news-ethiopian-orthodox-
church-holy-synod-distances-itself-from-patriarchs-remarks-on-tigray/
52
“The Massacre in Axum”, 2021, [online], 2021.06.30, Source: Amnesty International. URL:
https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/AFR2537302021ENGLISH.PDF
53
« Massacre at Tigray’s Mariam of Zion cathedral in Aksum », 2021.01.14, [online], [2021.06.15], Source:
Eritrea Hub. URL: https://eritreahub.org/massacre-at-tigrays-mariam-of-zion-cathedral-in-aksum
54
« Mahbere Dego: Clues to a Clifftop Massacre in Ethiopia », 2021.04.01, [online], [2021.06.15], Source:
Bellingcat. URL: https://www.bellingcat.com/?s=TIGRAY
55
Katharine Houreld, Michael Georgy, Silvia Alois, « How ethnic killings exploded from an Ethiopian town »,
2021.06.07 [online], [2021.06.30], Source: Reuters Investigates. URL:
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ethiopia-conflict-expulsions/

- 19 -
A document dated June 30, 2021, translates a report written by the interim governor of Mai Kinetal,
the main town in the District of Wer'i Leke. This report mentions that 440 civilians were killed, 558
women were raped, and 276 houses were burned in this District.56
There are also numerous reports of sexual abuses by men in uniform. According to a report by Sarah
Charles of USAID, Ethiopian health authorities recorded at least 950 cases of sexual violence between
March and April 2021 alone.57 The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) projects that
approximately 22,500 survivors of sexual violence in Tigray will need clinical care in 2021. According
to Mark Lowcock, the U.N.'s humanitarian chief, rape and sexual violence are used to pursue political
and military objectives in Tigray. 58
The non-governmental organization Europe External Program with Africa (EEPA) has collected
testimonies on brutalities against clerics, holy sites, and the Tigray heritage, including the attack on
several monasteries. For example, a monk's testimony describes the attack on the Debre-Damo
monastery with heavy artillery by the Eritrean army in January 2021, and reports that the soldiers
explained that they attacked the monastery believing that TPLF leaders were hiding there. 59 The Al-
Nejashi mosque in Negash, one of the oldest in Africa, was also damaged by shelling. 60
The Catholic Eparchy of Addigrat reports numerous cases of damage and looting of public and private
buildings immediately following the takeover of Addigrat by Ethiopian federal army and and Eritrean
forces. The newly built glass factory near Addigrat and the Addigrat pharmaceutical factory reported
that all their machinery and raw materials were dismantled and taken away. Buildings owned by the
eparchy, such as the priests' residence, the St. Mary's Agricultural University in Wuqro, the clinic and
the school in Edaga Hamus were damaged and completely looted. All the goods were taken away, for
example the school benches, the medicines of the clinic pharmacy, the computers, the personal
belongings of the religious and the employees, the solar panels of the water supply of the university.61
In the face of these numerous testimonies, the United Nations called in early March 2021 for an
independent investigation into possible "war crimes and crimes against humanity”. The UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights accepted the request of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
(EHRC) for a joint investigation.62
Situation of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs)
Since the conflict began in November 2020, approximately 2 million people have been forced to move
within Tigray, and some 63,000 people have fled to Sudan from western Tigray following the

56
“Damage Assessment from Mai Kinetal Wereda”, 2021.06.21, [online], [2021.06.21], Source: That. URL:
https://t.co/tZSZ9eAqFt
57
Sarah Charles, „Statement of Sarah Charles, Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau for Humanitarian
Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development - Before the Committee on Foreign Relations U.S.
Senate - Humanitarian Situation in Ethiopia”, [online], 2021.05.27, [2021.05.28], Source: USAID. URL:
https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/may-27-2021-statement-assistant-
administrator-charles-humanitarian-situation-ethiopia
58
Servet Gunerigok, „UN: Rape used for political, military goals in Tigray”, [online], 2021.04,27, Source:
Anadolu Agency, [2021.06.15], URL: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/un-rape-used-for-political-military-
goals-in-tigray/2222518
59
« Voices from Tigray - Brutalities against Religious Leaders, Holy Places and Heritage in Tigray - Testimony 3 -
Testimony from Debre Damo Monastery », 2021.06.08, [online], [2021.06.16], Source: Europe External
Program with Africa (EEPA). URL: https://www.eepa.be/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/3_Voices-from-Tigray-
Testimony-from-Debre-Damo.docx.pdf
60
« Tigray crisis: Ethiopia to repair al-Nejashi mosque », 2021.01.05, [online], [2021.06.15], Source: BBC News.
URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55530355
61
« Report of Solidarity Visit Made by Delegation of Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Ethiopia to the Eparchy of
Addigrat », 2021. January
62
Michelle Nichols, „U.N. rights chief agrees to Ethiopia request for joint Tigray inquiry”, 2021.03.18, [online],
[2021.06.23], Source: Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict-un-idUSKBN2B934E

- 20 -
occupation by Amhara forces. Many IDPs are dependent on host communities for basic needs such as
food and water, straining already limited resources. Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, has seen the largest
influx of conflict-displaced people, with overcrowded conditions, inadequate assistance, and shortages
of medicine and food.63
In addition, residents of some villages and small towns have fled to rural areas where some are hiding
in the mountains to save their lives.64
Situation regarding pre-existing refugee camps
Before the conflict began, Tigray had four main refugee camps, May Ayni, Adi Harush, Shimelba, and
Hitsats, which housed nearly 100,000 Eritreans according to UNHCR. Several sources report that
hundreds of refugees were executed in late 2020 and early 2021. The Shimelba and Hitsats camps were
looted and destroyed in January 2021, with some fleeing to the two remaining camps of May Ayni and
Adi Harush.65 Ethiopian television accused the TPLF of executing 300 civilians in the Hitsats camp, but
the New York Times reported that it was Eritrean forces that attacked and then looted the camp and
carried out executions as punishment for leaving Eritrea. 66
Major humanitarian crisis
Numerous reports confirm that a major humanitarian crisis is underway and worsening in Tigray and
neighboring regions, which, combined with the effects of Ethiopia's current deep economic crisis, could
eventually contribute to migration abroad, including to Europe.67. Moreover, the crisis in Tigray has
ended 30 years of development and hope, and many Ethiopians, especially middle-class Ethiopians,
are considering emigrating, believing that Ethiopia has returned to the hell of the 1980s.68
Before the conflict began, there were already 1.6 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in
Tigray out of an estimated total population of 6 million. Two and a half months after the conflict began,
in January 2021, the Tigray Interim Administration estimated that approximately 4.5 million people
needed emergency humanitarian assistance.65 By May 2021, USAID estimated that 5.2 million people
needed humanitarian assistance.
The population under food insecurity is spread across hundreds of rural communities in the
mountainous areas, as well as in urban and peri-urban areas where displaced people are seeking
assistance. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) estimates that in May-June 2021,
4 million people face high levels of acute food insecurity in Tigray territory, with an additional 1.5

63
Sarah Charles, „Statement of Sarah Charles, Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau for Humanitarian
Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development - Before the Committee on Foreign Relations U.S.
Senate - Humanitarian Situation in Ethiopia”, [online], 2021.05.27, [2021.05.28], Source: USAID. URL:
https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/may-27-2021-statement-assistant-
administrator-charles-humanitarian-situation-ethiopia
64
„Report of Solidarity Visit Made by Delegation of Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Ethiopia to the Eparchy of
Addigrat”, 2021. January
65
„Le HCR s’est rendu dans les camps détruits au Tigray dans le nord de l’Ethiopie”, 2021.03.26, [online],
[2021.06.10], Source: UNHCR. URL: https://www.unhcr.org/fr/news/briefing/2021/3/605dd186a/hcr-sest-
rendu-camps-detruits-tigre-nord-lethiopie.html
66
„Guest Map: Border Changes in Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict (February 2021)”, 2021.02.03, [online],
[2021.06.10], Source:Political Geography Now. URL: https://www.polgeonow.com/2021/02/tigray-map-
2021.html
67
Dino Mahtani and William Davison of International Crisis Group, „Ethiopia: Not too late to stop Tigray conflict
from unravelling country”; 2020.11.11, [online], [2021.06.23], Source: the Africa Report. URL:
https://www.theafricareport.com/49887/ethiopia-not-too-late-to-stop-tplf-conflict-from-unravelling-country/
68
Marsai Viktor, « Add meg magad vagy halj éhen! – polgárháború és humánitárius válság Etiópiában »,
2021.06.22, [online] [2021.06.24], Source : Institut des migrations de Budapest. URL:
https://www.migraciokutato.hu/press/horizont-2021-12-add-meg-magad-vagy-halj-ehen-%E2%80%95-
polgarhaboru-es-humanitarius-valsag-etiopiaban/

- 21 -
million people in the vicinity of Tigray in Afar and Amhara regional states. In May-June 2021, more than
350,000 people are in a situation described as catastrophic due to food insecurity, malnutrition,
disease, and famine.69
The conflict is having a severe impact on rural communities by eliminating many primary sources of
food and income. Restrictions on movement have prevented people from accessing markets, farmland,
and many services, limiting their ability to feed themselves and their families. Local economies have
collapsed with high unemployment, loss of livelihoods and low purchasing power. The usual temporary
employment opportunities that many people rely on for income, such as on farms or construction sites,
have become virtually non-existent, and income-generating activities, such as the sale of crops, milk
and livestock, have been severely disrupted. The conflict coincided with the harvest season, resulting
in the loss of more than 90 percent of the crop in 2020. In addition, the loss of animals used for field
work and the destruction of seed supplies and agricultural fertilizers could result in a shortage of
agricultural resources for several years.70 70 71
In addition, little is known about large areas of Tigray that have been completely isolated due to
fighting since November 2020. The UN estimates that 1.6 million people remain in hard-to-reach areas
of Tigray, and UNICEF warned in late June 2021 that at least 33,000 severely malnourished children in
hard-to-reach areas face "imminent risk of death" if emergency aid is not delivered quickly. 72
Due to looting by military forces, only 16 percent of hospitals and health centers are fully functional.
About a quarter of all schools in Tigray have been damaged and looted, preventing many children from
receiving schooling since November 2020.73 74
The conflict has also resulted in the destruction of essential water and sanitation infrastructures. It is
estimated that approximately 250 motorized water pumping systems in the cities are out of service
due to lack of fuel and electricity, damage, looting, or vandalism. The status of about 11,000 hand
pumps in various rural areas is unknown. As a result, many people do not have access to clean water.72
In an interview with the BBC-News on June 21, 2021, Abiy Ahmed denied the existence of famine in
Tigray.75 In another interview quoted by "The Ethiopian Herald" newspaper on June 25, 2021, Abiy
Ahmed said: “Some aid agencies’ complaints about lack of access to Tigray State is the cover to justify
their request for a special corridor thereby availing support to terrorist TPLF remnants. Some
international organizations have employed the same old technique of using sham famine narrative as

69
„ETHIOPIA [TIGRAY, AFAR & AMHARA]: Integrated Food Insecurity Phase Classification Snapshot”,
2021.06.10, [online], [2021.06.22], Source: ipcinfo.org. URL:
http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Ethiopia_Acute_Food_Insecurity_2021MaySe
pt_Snapshot.pdf
70
“Damage Assessment from Mai Kinetal Wereda”, 2021.06.21, [online], [2021.06.21], Source: That. URL:
https://t.co/tZSZ9eAqFt
71
Sarah Charles, „Statement of Sarah Charles, Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau for Humanitarian
Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development - Before the Committee on Foreign Relations U.S.
Senate - Humanitarian Situation in Ethiopia”, [online], 2021.05.27, [2021.05.28], Source: USAID. URL:
https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/may-27-2021-statement-assistant-
administrator-charles-humanitarian-situation-ethiopia
72
Cara Anna, “Trapped in Ethiopia’s Tigray, people ‘falling like leaves’”, 2021.06.30, [online], [2021.06.30],
Source: Associated Press News. URL: https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-united-nations-ethiopia-africa-
9540b17507dcb58dd78b79116e6d9aa7
73
“Schools in Ethiopia’s Tigray region pillaged, occupied”, 2021.06.28, [online], [2021.06.30], Source: Aljazeera.
URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/28/a-quarter-of-schools-in-ethiopias-tigray-region-are-
damaged-hrw
74
„Report of Solidarity Visit Made by Delegation of Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Ethiopia to the Eparchy of
Addigrat”, 2021. January
75
„Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed: 'There is no hunger in Tigray”, 2021.06.21, [online], [2021.06.23], Source. BBC News.
URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-57551057

- 22 -
a tool to bring regime change. International aid agencies employed a similar method during the 1984/5
Ethiopian famine, and they capitalized on a special corridor granted by the DERG regime and provided
support to the then TPLF fighters that wedged war to overthrow the former. Just like before, some
international organizations now want to use the same playbook to arm the fractured junta gangs in
the name of a special corridor. Due to the eagerness for the speed delivery of humanitarian support to
people affected by the current situation in Tigray, the government has been working tirelessly to
address the aid agencies’ difficult and somewhat unjustified requests.” 76
It is therefore feared that the Ethiopian government will maintain the blockade of Tigray, despite the
unilateral ceasefire announcement of June 28, 2021. Such a blockade would inevitably lead to a famine
on the scale of the 1984-1985 famine under the Mengistu dictatorship.
Growing tensions between ethnic groups
The conflict has exacerbated tensions between ethnic communities, which were already at a high level
before the conflict began. A young Ethiopian student in Europe, whose father is Tigray and whose
mother is Amhara, said that after the conflict began, his father had to flee the Amhara regional State
where he lived with his family to the Tigray capital because he was threatened due to his military
background in the Tigray Defense Forces.
For their part, the Tigrayans believe they have been betrayed by other ethnic groups and the
"Prosperity Party" coalition, particularly because they have allowed a foreign force to enter Tigray,
namely the army of Eritrea, a long-time enemy of the Tigrayans.

7. CURRENT RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS - NEEDS

Numerous international agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are mobilized on the
ground to provide the much-needed emergency assistance in Tigray. According to OCHA (United
Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), there are currently (as of June 24, 2021)
123 partners operating across the region: 70 international NGOs, 33 national NGOs, 11 UN agencies,
and 9 government offices. However, the aid provided falls short of the immense needs - 5.2 million
people need humanitarian assistance - and the continued fighting in several territories in Tigray
complicates the delivery of humanitarian aid, particularly in rural mountainous areas. 77 The risk for
NGO employees is very high; several NGO employees have been killed since November 2020, the latest
tragedy being the murder of three members of Médecins Sans Frontières on June 25, 2021.

Food assistance is currently the largest component of the humanitarian response, supplemented by
medical support, shelter and non-food relief items.78
OCHA estimates that the relief needs for the people of Tigray are $854 million for the period May to
December 2021, with a shortfall of $364 million. 78
Beyond emergency humanitarian assistance, there will be a longer-term need for support in the
following areas:
• Supply of materials and tools necessary for agricultural production, in particular seeds,
fertilizers, agricultural production equipment
• Re-establishment of drinking water supplies
• Rehabilitation of services and infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, that have been
damaged and looted by military forces

76
Daniel Alemayehu, “Premier speaks out on some aid agencies hidden agenda”, 2021.06.26, [online],
[2021.07.01], Source: Ethiopian Herald. URL :
https://www.facebook.com/epaEnglish/photos/a.420894541816571/939985023240851
77
OCHA, “ETHIOPIA - TIGRAY REGION HUMANITARIAN UPDATE - Situation Report”. 2021.06.24, [online],
[2021.06.25], Source : OCHA. URL : https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/ethiopia/

- 23 -
 • Reconstruction or restoration of holy places (churches, monasteries) that have been destroyed
or damaged and looted, search for and repatriation of stolen treasures from churches and
monasteries
• Psychological support for traumatized people, especially those who have suffered sexual
abuse
• Actions in favor of reconciliation, peace building
There was hope that the ceasefire announced on June 28, 2020, would allow for an increased
humanitarian aid delivery, but Abiy Ahmed's statements in late June denying starvation and accusing
humanitarian aid organizations of trying to support Tigrayan rebels suggest that a blockade of Tigray
is underway to bring down the TPLF leadership. Such blockade would lead to catastrophic
humanitarian consequences.78

78
Daniel Alemayehu, “Premier speaks out on some aid agencies hidden agenda”, 2021.06.26, [online],
[2021.07.01], Source: Ethiopian Herald. URL :
https://www.facebook.com/epaEnglish/photos/a.420894541816571/939985023240851

- 24 -

View publication stats