Article V Review

Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China

J. Wu, G. Han, H. Zhou, and N. Li

The level of vulnerability to disasters brought by climate change is heavily influenced by economic
development, as observed by the authors in China. It is concluded that vulnerability in certain areas
of China decreases with an increase in per-capita income. The authors separated the 31 mainland
provinces of China into three major economic categories: East as the most developed area, Central
as the underdeveloped area, and West as the less-developed area. They mapped the changes of
vulnerability through time and assessed its correlation to income by identifying the historical
records of fatalities and direct economic losses (DELs) and comparing them to population and
economic growth for each region classified and for China in general. Vulnerability is defined by the
mortality rate and DEL rate, then statistical relation was established between vulnerability and per-
capita GDP.

While records show that disasters in China ballooned since the 1980s, the country has detected a
consistent decrease in mortality rate from disasters since the founding of the People’s Republic of
China in 1949. The East region with its advanced development had the lowest record of fatalities,
followed by the West region and Central region. From 1978 to 2015, DELs are reported to increase
incrementally by one (1) billion dollars annually, with central having the highest share in
distribution, followed by East and West. The data concludes that while economic development
results in an increase in DEL, there is a significant decrease in the mortality rate.

The paper has made clear the apparent correlation between economic growth and vulnerability.
However, notable limitations were also raised by the authors, such as the lack of accurate records
on the disasters, especially in the underreported poorer regions. However, although with
limitations, the point of the study remains clear and significant. The supply-demand concept can be
used to further the claims of the authors of this paper, citing the increasing demand of people for
security along with increasing economic development. As urbanization intensifies, people shift their
attention to reducing the risk from climate-induced disasters, prompting policymakers to focus on
programs and initiatives that will make their communities calamity-resilient.

Trying to understand the study made in China and putting it in the Philippine context, it is evident
why the Philippines’ vulnerability to disasters is very high, in relation to its slow economic
development. While its exposure to natural calamities is high, it does not have the necessary
economic growth to adapt easily to disasters, and the wide economic disparity between rich and
poor regions makes it even more difficult to reduce vulnerability.