CITY OF MALOLOS SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL

CULMINATING ACTIVITY
Quarter 3 : Week 3

Ma. Cristina Kaye L. Roxas

Grade 12-HUMSS

The Rapid Population Growth and Economic Development in the Philippines

(Related to Social Science)

RATIONALE
Population growth and economic development are intrinsically tied. Their
connection might be either reversed or direct. In the notion that, while a
massive rise in population can bring to rapid economic development in certain
cases, it can also stifle economic progress in others. Over the last two decades,
Philippine development has been marked by unequal economic growth and a
gradual demographic change. In the 1960s and early 1970s, the economy grew
at a respectable rate. This was followed by a period of low and negative growth
from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. A fragile rebound occurred in the late
1980s, followed by considerably stronger growth parameters in the mid-1990s.

On the demographic front, after a sharp fall in fertility rates in the 1970s,
subsequent improvements have been extremely modest. While neighboring
Indonesia and Thailand have effectively lowered their birthrates to 1.5 and 0.9
percent, accordingly, the Philippines has still been increasing at 2.3 percent
since the 1995 census. In recent years, economists and researchers have paid
close attention to the link between these two in emerging nations. Moreover,
most textbooks on economic growth contain a section on 'population and
development. Yet, there is no agreement on whether population expansion is
advantageous or harmful to a developing country's economic success. The link
between rising demographic trends and economic growth has been described as
"complicated," with "historical data unclear, particularly of what is origin and what
is consequence" (Thirlwalhc 1994).

Furthermore, one of the key reasons cited is the government's ambiguous

support for the population program. In a recent analysis of the connection
between population growth and development, with a focus on Asia, the
Philippines was categorized with India as getting better initial population initiatives
that serves as a reference for many other countries of the world, but it has
been later left behind from neighboring countries when it comes of demographic
transition (Jha, Deolalikar and Pernia, 1993). The article cited political issues as
the reason for the program's demise. It's worth taking a look back at what's
happened to see how much of this gradual demographic transformation was
responsible for the city's poor performance in most other sectors as compared to
the other countries.

This study aims to examine the ongoing dispute over the interconnections
between population growth and economic development, with a focus on its
significance to Philippine socioeconomic development. The goal is to put the
country's historical development in context, so that a firmer commitment to
confront the population problem may be developed.
Review of Related Literature

1. According to Dawson and Tiffin (1998), for a long time, the relationship between
population growth and economic development was thought to be fundamental to the
study of developing countries Hence, most economic development textbooks have
included a section on "population and development."

2. According to Thirlwall (1994), there is still no agreement as to whether population

growth is detrimental or beneficial to an emerging country's economic performance."
The connection between rising demographic trends and economic growth has already
been described as "complex," to "historical evidence ambiguous, particularly as to what
is cause and what is effect."

3. According to Jha, Deolalikar and Pernia (1993), the Philippines was grouped with
India for having good initial population initiatives that serve as a basis for other countries
across the world, but has now fallen behind neighboring countries in terms of
demographic shift.

4. According to Simon J. (1996), as he highlighted the positive side of population

growth, he noted that a human being is the vital essential element and “the ultimate
resource” that contributes to economic growth. In contrast, the relationship between
population growth and economic performance in a country is regarded as negative if the
increase in population becomes an impediment to the country’s economic development.
This is because the rapid expansion of population increases the dependency burden
(i.e., the number of people who are considered to be economically unproductive such as
children and the elderly).

5. According to Thornton (2001), his findings supported Dawson and Tiffin's conclusion
regarding the long-run relationship between population growth and economic
development in seven Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela (1998). That is, "a long-run relationship
between population and real per capita GDP doesn't really appear to exist; thus, growth
in population neither causes nor is caused by per capita GDP growth."

6. According to Bucci and La Torre (2007), to investigate the relationship between

population growth and economic development, they used a two-sector endogenous
growth model. They emphasized that population growth could have a negative or
ambiguous impact on economic development. On one hand, population growth has a
negative effect on economic performance when physical capital and human capital are
substitutes. Because once physical and human capital are parallel, the effect of
population growth on economic growth becomes vague.

7. According to Turnemaine (2007), he developed an approach to analyse the

relationship between population growth and per capita growth.
Endogenous interactions occur between capital and population. He stated that growth in
population could have a positive or negative effect on economic development, and that
the result would be determined by the relative contribution of population and human
capital to the economy.

8. According to Herrin and Pernia (2004), it's been noted that the Philippines has
experienced remarkable population growth since the 1970s. They contended that, given
the economy's structural weaknesses, rapid population growth appeared to have
exacerbated the country's unemployment and poverty problems.

9. Mapa and Balisacan (2003) highlighted out that, among ASEAN member countries,
the Philippines' increasing population provided relatively little benefit (i.e., in terms of the
demographic dividend) to economic growth. Instead, the country was forced to pay a
high price for unchecked population expansion.
10. According to Dyson (2010), the inescapable demographic transition from high
fertility rate to low fertility rate can explain the main relationship between population and
development. Developed nations with low fertility rates, such as Japan, may face a
serious diversity issue of population shrinkage, where economic development may have
a detrimental effect on population growth. In comparison, developing countries with
relatively high fertility rates, such as the Philippines, could face a demographic problem
of "extreme" population growth. In the other word, economic development may cause
population growth in developing countries with high fertility rates.
 REFERENCES

Orbeta Jr, A., & Pernia, E. M. (1999). Population Growth and Economic Development in
the Philippines: What Has Been the Experience and What Must Be Done? (No. 1999-
22). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.

Ahlburg (1996) "Population Growth and Poverty," in Ahlburg et al. (eds.)

Ahlburg, D., A. Kelley, K. Oppenheim Mason, editors. (1996). The Impact of Population
Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, Springer-Verlag.

McNicoll, G. (1984). Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: An Overview and

Assessment. Population and Development Review, 10(2), 177–240.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1973081

Ahlburg, D. A. 1996. Population and poverty. In D. A. Ahlburg, A. C. Kelley and K.

Oppenheim Mason (eds.), The impact of population growth on well-being in developing
dountries. Berlin: Springer.

Bucci, A. and D. La Torre. 2007. Population and economic growth with human and
physical capital investments. Departmental Working Paper No. 2007-45. Department of
Economics, University of Milan.

Canlas, D. B. 2004. Economic growth in the Philippines: theory and evidence. Journal
of Asian Economics 14:759–769.

Dawson, D. J. and R. Tiffin. 1998. Is there a long-run relationship between population

growth and living standard? The case of India. Journal of Development Studies
34(5):149–156.

Easterlin, R. A. 1967. Effect of population growth in the economic development of

developing countries. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social
Sciences 369:98–108.

Mapa, D. S. and A. Balisacan. 2004. Quantifying the impact of population on economic

growth and poverty: the Philippines in an East Asian context. Paper presented at the 9th
Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, November 13–14, 2003, Hong
Kong.