1.23.18 MM Sector Update Rel Val

HIGH YIELD CREDIT
SNFI<go>
Nick Jarmoszuk, CFA
jarmoszukn@stifel.com | (212) 338-4726
METALS & MINING SECTOR UPDATE AND RELATIVE VALUE

- Commodity Summary (pg. 2)
- Industry Update (pg. 3)
- Earnings Calendar (pg. 4)
- Credit Trend / Rationale (pg. 5-7)
- Trading Relative Value (pg. 8-21)
- Operating Comps (pg. 22-25)
- Detailed Relative Value (pg. 26-33)
- Commodity Futures Curves (pg. 34)
- Charts (pg. 35-43)
- Appendix/Disclosures (pg. 44)
January 23, 2018

This report priced as of 4PM EST on January 23, 2018
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports
prepared for retail investors. This report may not be independent of Stifel’s proprietary interests. Stifel may trade the securities covered in this report or its
own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interest may be contrary to the recommendation offered in this report.
Stifel Debt Research Disclosure
COMMODITIES PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Spot Prices Consensus 01/23/18 01/16/18 1-week Δ 4-week Δ YTD Δ
Iron Ore Fines 65% FE (CIF China, $/mt, Brazil to China) $ 91.70 $ 92.50 -0.9% 3.6% 3.0%
TSI 62% FE (CFR China, $/mt) $ 70.00 $ 73.89 $ 73.03 1.2% 7.1% 4.4%
58% FE (CFR China, $/mt) $ 46.12 $ 45.45 1.5% 9.9% 8.9%
% Realisation 62% 63%
Met Coal Premium Hard Coking Coal Austr. Export (FOB, US$/mt) $ 174.96 $ 217.80 $ 249.70 -12.8% -16.1% -16.3%
Hard Coking Coal Australia Export (FOB, US$/mt) $ 185.60 $ 185.70 -0.1% 4.2% 4.2%
Currencies Australian Dollar $ 0.798 $ 0.796 0.3% 3.3% 2.2%
Chinese Yuan $ 0.156 $ 0.155 0.6% 2.1% 1.6%
Brazilian Real $ 0.309 $ 0.310 -0.5% 2.2% 2.2%
Scrap & Billets Turkish Scrap (CFR, $/mt) $ 355.50 $ 355.50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
US Shredded Scrap ($/ton) $ 378.00 $ 385.00 -1.8% 3.0% 3.0%
Chinese Billets (US$/mt) $ 572.78 $ 553.64 3.5% -4.4% -2.9%
Steel N. America Hot-rolled Coil (US$/ton) $ 694 $ 688 0.8% 7.5% 6.0%
China Hot-rolled Coil (export, FOB, US$/ton) $ 526 $ 526 0.0% -0.9% 0.0%
Reinforcing bar (FOB, US$/mt) $ 609 $ 600 1.5% -2.9% -5.9%
Base Metals Copper ($/lb) $ 2.78 $ 3.01 $ 3.11 -3.2% -6.3% -5.6%
Nickel ($/mt) $ 10,322 $ 12,724 $ 12,482 1.9% 5.4% 0.1%
Aluminum ($/mt) $ 1,968 $ 2,250 $ 2,187 2.9% 3.0% -0.4%
Zinc ($/mt) $ 2,861 $ 3,440 $ 3,450 -0.3% 5.3% 3.1%
Precious Metals Gold ($/oz) $ 1,258 $ 1,334 $ 1,338 -0.3% 4.0% 2.4%
Platinum ($/oz) $ 951 $ 1,007 $ 999 0.8% 9.2% 8.5%
Silver ($/oz) $ 17.13 $ 18.80 $ 17.19 9.3% 13.6% 11.0%
Source: Bloomberg, LME Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
For institutional investors only. Please refer to the disclaimer on the last page of this document. |2|
INDUSTRY UPDATE
• Iron Ore lost 1% on the week and is trading at $77.20/tonne. The premium for the 65% grade is flat at
~$14.50/ton and the 58% grade is seeing ~60% of the 62% Index. Chinese rebar has stabilized following a sharp
sell-off last week, which weighed on IO sentiment. The futures curve remains backwardated, port inventories
are at record highs (145MM tonnes), and the street is bearish. Nothing new to report.
• US HRC neared $700/ton as mills continue to have pricing power. We expect HRC to have strength in coming
months due to seasonality and tightness in the flat rolled market, on account of the AKS’ Middletown Works
incident.
• On the STLD earnings call, mgmt opined Section 232 determinations could benefit structural steel, pipes &
tubes as well as certain coated offerings.
Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
4Q17 ANNOUNCED EARNINGS CALENDAR
Company Earnings Date Call Date Call Time (EST) Dial-in Consensus EBITDA
Cliffs Natural Resources 1/25/2018 1/25/2018 10:00:00 AM 877.201.0168 113
Freeport McMorAn 1/25/2018 1/25/2018 10:00:00 AM - 2,055
Alliance Coal 1/29/2018 1/29/2018 10:00:00 AM (877) 506-1589 165
Petra Diamonds 1/29/2018 1/29/2018 4:30 AM 866.719.2729 -
AK Steel 1/30/2018 1/30/2018 11:00:00 AM 844.294.2300 / 5379688 38
Nucor 1/30/2018 1/30/2018 2:00:00 PM - 528
SunCoke Energy Inc 1/31/2018 1/31/2018 11:00:00 AM 833-236-5757 69
SunCoke Energy Partners 1/31/2018 1/31/2018 10:00:00 AM 833-236-5757 68
US Steel 1/31/2018 2/1/2018 8:30:00 AM (612) 288-0329 309
ArcelorMittal 1/31/2018 1/31/2018 9:30:00 AM 866.719.2729 1,993
Arconic 2/5/2018 2/5/2018 10:00:00 AM (877) 679 1722 426
CNX Coal Resources 2/6/2018 2/6/2018 11:00:00 AM 855-656-0928 26
Coeur Mining 2/7/2018 2/8/2018 11:00:00 AM (855) 560-2581 89
Peabody Energy 2/7/2018 2/7/2018 11:00:00 AM (888) 312-3049 421
Rio Tinto 2/7/2018 - - - 9,585
Barrick Gold 2/14/2018 2/15/2018 8:00:00 AM 800-319-4610 1,157
Gold Corp 2/14/2018 2/15/2018 1:00:00 PM 800-273-9672 330
Kinross Gold 2/14/2018 2/15/2018 8:00:00 AM - 345
Teck 2/14/2018 2/14/2018 11:00:00 AM 866.225.0198 1,500
Cloud Peak 2/15/2018 2/15/2018 5:00:00 PM 855-793-3260 26
Lundin Mining 2/15/2018 2/16/2018 8:00:00 AM 877 648 7976 266
Newcrest 2/15/2018 - - - -
Yamana 2/15/2018 2/16/2018 9:00:00 AM 866-223-7781 177
FMG 2/21/2018 - - - 635
Glencore 2/21/2018 - - - 7,664
IAMGOLD 2/21/2018 2/22/2018 8:30:00 AM 800-319-4610 98
AngloAmerican 2/22/2018 - - - 3,953
Newmont 2/22/2018 2/22/2018 10:00:00 AM 855.209.8210 719
Sibanye 2/22/2018 - - - -
Alamos 2/22/2018 2/22/2018 11:00:00 AM (800) 273-9672 71
Centerra Gold 2/23/2018 2/23/2018 11:00:00 AM 800-771-7943 165
Vale 2/28/2018 2/28/2018 - - 11989.1BRL
Source: Stifel fixed income research,, Bloomberg, company reports Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
CREDIT TREND/RATIONALE
Sub-Sector Ticker Ranking Rating Outlook Credit Trend / Rationale
Aluminum ARNC Unsecured Ba2/BBB- STABLE/STABLE ↔ Generous ratings for leverage and generally poor performance of acquisitions.
Low leverage, low yield, risk of leveraging acquisition. 6.75% could become
AA Unsecured Ba2/BB STABLE/- ↑
refinancing candidate in 9/2019.
With Lewisport ramping and capex declining, we expect ARS to call and refinance
ARS Secured B+/B- -/STABLE ↑ its capital structure in 2018. Bonds up since the start of the year in anticipation of
M&A.
With Lewisport ramping and capex declining, we expect ARS to call and refinance
ARS Unsecured Caa2/CCC+ -/STABLE ↑ its capital structure in 2018. Bonds up since the start of the year in anticipation of
M&A.
CSTM Unsecured B3/B- STABLE/STABLE ↑ We like the equity issuance, the declining capex and outlook for FCF.
The STLD of the downstream Al space. There is market expectation that HNDLIN
HNDLIN Unsecured B2/B STABLE/- ↔
will be a player in sector consolidation.
STEEL Top of the stack & limited additional secured debt capacity. We believe AKS
AKS Secured B1/BB- STABLE/POS ↔ should take these bonds out on the first call date to have available secured
capacity,
One quarter gets a pass, 2 quarters is a trend. We are concerned that AKS will be
AKS Unsecured B3/B- STABLE/POS ↔ under pressure with 4Q results. Offsetting poor operating trends is positive
steel sector sentiment.
ATI Unsecured B3/B NEG/STABLE ↔ Aerospace showing traction, FRP continues to underwhelm.
BSLAU Unsecured Ba1/BB+ -/- ↔ We expect these notes to be called and refinanced in May 2018.
CMC Unsecured Ba2/BB+ NEG/NEG ↔ Minimill pursuing leveraging acquisition of certain Gerdau assets.
China supply reforms promoting global profitability & limits steel price volatility.
Balance sheet is positioned for return to IG. The following notes will lose 25bps
MTNA Unsecured Ba1/BB+ POS/POS ↑
for each rating upgrade. 5.25% due 2020, 5.5% due 2021, 6.25% due 2022, 7% due
2039, 6.75% due 2041. Beware the 2039 and 2041 Notes.
NUE Unsecured Baa1/A- STABLE/STABLE ↔ NUE net leverage 1.1x, STLD net leverage 1.0x. Superior relative value in STLD.
Same credit metrics as NUE. Secured RCF and mgmt language stating leverage
STLD Unsecured Ba1/BB+ STABLE/POS ↑
will go up to 3.0x are gating factors to IG rating.
Company make-wholed $200MM of bonds. We expect these bonds to be mgmt's
X Secured B1/BB- NEG/STABLE ↑
focus through the first call date of 7/1/2018.
We presently like X over AKS. We believe steel pricing will be stable for the next
X Unsecured Caa1/B NEG/STABLE ↑ several month (into April) allowing FCF generation and further repayment of
additional debt.
Source: Stifel fixed income research,, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
IRON ORE CLF 1L Ba3/BB- STABLE/NEG ↑ Attractive relative to other more levered unsecured M&M paper yielding 5%.
We believe CLF is attractive for its low leverage, insulated market and contracted
CLF G'teed B2/B STABLE/NEG ↑
position.
CLF Unsecured Caa1/CCC+ STABLE/NEG ↑ Near-dated maturities attractive given LG's execution of the business.
Lower grade IO is under pressure from Chinese policies which look to improve air
quality. We believe spreads are too tight given low realizations relative to the
FMGAU Unsecured Ba2/BB STABLE/- ↓
62% index, risk of lowing the working capital benefit arising from prepayments
and higher duration of the unsecured bonds.
Premium pricing for higher grade Brazilian Fines and targeted $10BN debt
VALEBZ Unsecured Ba1/BBB- STABLE/POS ↑
reduction should continue to strengthen balance sheet.
GOLD / CDE Unsecured NA/BB- STABLE/STABLE ↔ Silver is a by-product metal. We prefer gold and copper credits.
SILVER / Market awaits revised mine plans and continued progress with Greek
DIAMONDS ELDCN Unsecured B1/B+ NEG/STABLE ↑ developments. Substantial EV behind bonds, suggesting attractive yield
opportunity.
HL Unsecured B3/B STABLE/STABLE ↔ Silver is a by-product metal. We prefer gold and copper credits.
Management has been successful in growing P&P reserves and extending mine
IMGCN Unsecured B2/B+ POS/STABLE ↑ life. Cash>debt. Despite higher geopolitical risk, we like the risk/reward. Low
leverage substantial EV behind the bonds.
~60% of production in Americas, low leverage, mine diversification, ample
KCN Unsecured Ba1/BB+ STABLE/POS ↑
liquidity, and no near term maturities. FCN positioned for IG upgrade.
Rainy River commissioned, business positioned to generate more EBITDA and
NGDCN Unsecured B3/B STABLE/STABLE ↑ delever. Medium term risk is construction of Blackwater and renewal of the
capex cycle.
Ongoing South Africa headline risk. Opaque diamond markets. Growing
PDLLN 2L B3 /*-/B -/- ↔
production profile.
49% interest in single mine, short mine life, lower than expected realized pricing.
MPVDCN 2L B3/B- STABLE/- ↓
New mine plan coming in 2018.
4B's, substantial equity check from Washington Companies. Ongoing
NORACQ 2L Ba3/BB- -/- ↔
development risk.
COPPER We expect the credit to benefit from higher copper prices, however we view
CDEL Unsecured A3/A+ STABLE/STABLE ↔
spreads and rating having exceptional support from the Chilean Government.
Cleaner operations, low leverage, positioned for upgrade in 2018. Potential for
FCX Unsecured B1/BB- POS / STABLE ↑
Grasberg resolution will also lower ongoing headline risk.
Balance sheet positioned for deleveraging and upside to higher commodity
GLENLN Unsecured Baa2/BBB STABLE/- ↑
prices.
Copper hedges giving $470MM EBITDA headwind - we estimate PF leverage of
FMCN Unsecured B3/B- NEG/POS ↑ 3.3x ex-hedges, rather than 4.8x. Cobre to fuel deleveraging and diversify cash
flow and operations.
HBMCN Unsecured B3/B+ STABLE/STABLE ↑ Stable portfolio and constructive 2018 outlook from higher Copper prices.
SCCO Unsecured Baa2/BBB STABLE/POS ↑ Attractive RV to CDEL, with low cost copper assets.
OTHER We do not like the business model. Barminco, "allows mine owners to focus on
BARPTY 1L B1/- -/- ↔ core capabilities.” Isn’t a miner’s core competency mining??? Otherwise you are
a royalty company.
Company has great performance with better alloy pricing, and these note have a
high likelihood of being called on first call date, 3/1/2019. We do not like seeing
GSM Unsecured (P)B3/- -/- ↑
mgmt teams/boards that pay dividends while being in violation of bank
covenants.
Massive improvement in credit quality from China focusing on its environment
RCOLIN 2L B2/B -/- ↑
and culling more polluting industries, including calcined petroleum coke.
COAL Mgmt has maintained leverage at ~1x for last 6 years. We believe these notes
ARLP Unsecured B1/BB- -/- ↑
carry an above market coupon and will be called on the first call date in 5/2020.
FELP 2L Caa2/CCC -/- ↑
Massive current yield, strengthen NAPP pricing, Rover pipeline should narrow
MURREN 2L Caa3/CCC STABLE/STABLE ↑
the HH/Dominion South differential.
Completely mis-priced coupon. Declining OpCo leverage, diversified business,
NRP Unsecured Caa2/- -/- ↑ low capex, high FCF conversion. We expect these bonds to be called and
refinanced on the first call date in 3/2019.
Diversified across basins and seaborne markets. Attractive yield for low leverage
BTU Secured Ba3/B+ STABLE/STABLE ↑
and positive outlook for coal.
We expect PRB consolidation and CLD will be a beneficiary of a consolidated
CLD 2L Caa3/B- -/STABLE ↑
basin
We expect PRB consolidation and CLD will be a beneficiary of a consolidated
CLD Unsecured Ca/CCC -/STABLE ↑
basin
We do not like underwriting met coal. If you want met exposure, play the equity.
HCC B3/B+ STABLE/STABLE ↔
TRADING RELATIVE VALUE – YIELD TO 1ST CALL / YTM
Net
Bond Issue Ratings Leverage Offer 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-2029 2030+
AA 6.75% Ba2/BB 0.0x 109.13 4.0% 5.1%
AA 7% Ba2/BB 0.0x 112.01 4.3% 5.3%
KALU 5.875% Ba3/BB+ 0.5x 106.90 3.7% 4.6%
AKS 7.5% B1/BB- 1.4x 108.25 4.2% 5.7%
AKS 7.625% B3/B- 2.7x 103.75 7.9% 6.5%
AKS 6.375% B3/B- 2.7x 101.00 7.0% 6.2%
AKS 7% B3/B- 2.7x 104.00 6.6% 6.4%
BSLAU 6.5% -/- 0.2x 104.25 5.0% 4.9%
CMC 4.875% Ba2/BB+ 2.1x 102.53 4.8%
CMC 5.375% Ba2/BB+ 2.1x 103.50 5.0% 4.9%
MTNA 5.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 105.00 2.9%
MTNA 5.25% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 106.53 3.0%
MTNA 5.5% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 107.52 3.4%
MTNA 6.25% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 111.69 3.6%
MTNA 6.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 114.50 3.8%
MTNA 7% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 128.36 5.3%
MTNA 7.5% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 128.25 5.1%
NUE 4.125% Baa1/A- 1.1x 105.74 2.7%
NUE 4% Baa1/A- 1.1x 103.54 3.3%
NUE 6.4% Baa1/A- 1.1x 131.57 4.1%
NUE 5.2% Baa1/A- 1.1x 119.34 4.0%
STLD 5.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 102.63 4.2% 4.3%
STLD 5.25% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 102.60 5.2% 4.7%
STLD 5.5% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 105.50 3.7% 4.5%
STLD 4.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 101.50 4.3% 3.9%
STLD 5% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 105.49 4.1% 4.3%
X 8.375% B1/BB- NM 108.43 3.1% 5.6%
X 7.375% Caa1/B 1.6x 107.35 3.8%
X 6.875% Caa1/B 1.6x 105.38 5.8% 6.0%
X 6.65% Caa1/B 1.6x 99.63 6.7%
KEY: Yield to 1st Call YTM
Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
Net
ARNC 5.72% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 103.02 2.9%
ARNC 6.15% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 107.63 3.0%
ARNC 5.4% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 106.49 3.1%
ARNC 5.87% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 108.09 3.7%
ARNC 5.125% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 106.90 3.9%
ARNC 5.9% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 113.01 4.2%
ARNC 6.75% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 118.60 4.4%
ARNC 5.95% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 109.98 5.1%
ATI 5.95% B3/B 5.6x 103.00 4.8% 4.9%
ATI 7.875% B3/B 5.6x 109.00 5.9%
ATI 6.95% B3/B+ 5.6x 103.20 6.4%
BARPTY 6.625% B1/- 3.6x 99.25 9.7% 6.8%
GSM 9.375% -/- 3.7x 109.10 5.0% 6.8%
MCGRND 7.375% B2/B NA 107.00 5.3% 5.9%
ARS 9.5% B+/B- 4.2x 106.00 2.5% 7.3%
ARS 7.875% Caa2/CCC+ 6.6x 100.75 23.0% 7.6%
CSTM 5.75% B3/B- 4.5x 102.75 5.7% 5.2%
CSTM 6.625% B3/B- 4.5x 104.92 5.6% 5.8%
CSTM 5.875% B3/B- 4.5x 102.95 5.7% 5.4%
HNDLIN 6.25% B2/B 3.6x 104.76 5.9% 5.4%
HNDLIN 5.875% B2/B 3.6x 102.75 5.8% 5.5%
CLF 5.75% B2/B 1.5x 98.13 8.7% 6.1%
CLF 5.9% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 101.03 5.4%
CLF 4.8% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 97.50 5.8%
CLF 4.875% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 95.71 6.4%
CLF 6.25% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 82.13 8.0%
FMGAU 9.75% Baa3/BB 0.2x 110.66 0.6% 6.7%
FMGAU 4.75% Ba2/BB 0.6x 101.95 4.2%
FMGAU 5.125% Ba2/BB 0.6x 102.00 4.8%
Net 2026-
Bond Issue Ratings Leverage Offer 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2029 2030+
AALLN 9.375% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 107.98 2.6%
AALLN 3.625% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 102.23 2.6%
AALLN 4.45% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 104.26 2.8%
AALLN 4.125% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 103.26 3.1%
AALLN 3.75% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 101.56 3.3%
AALLN 4.125% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 103.17 3.4%
AALLN 4.875% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 105.93 3.9%
AALLN 4.75% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 104.91 4.1%
FCX 3.1% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.00 3.1%
FCX 4% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.50 3.9%
FCX 3.55% B1/BB- 1.8x 98.00 4.1%
FCX 6.875% B1/BB- 1.8x 103.97 5.1%
FCX 3.875% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.59 3.7%
FCX 4.55% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.68 4.4%
FCX 7.125% Ba2/BB- 1.8x 113.23 5.4%
FCX 9.5% Ba2/BB- 1.8x 129.91 6.2%
FCX 6.125% Ba2/BB- 1.8x 104.53 5.7%
FCX 5.4% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.00 5.4%
FCX 5.45% B1/BB- 1.8x 99.40 5.5%
TCKBCN 8.5% Ba1/BB+ 0.0x 112.63 3.5% 6.1%
TCKBCN 4.5% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 101.23 4.1%
TCKBCN 4.75% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 103.50 3.8%
TCKBCN 3.75% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 100.69 3.6%
TCKBCN 6.125% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 112.25 5.1%
TCKBCN 6% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 111.59 5.1%
TCKBCN 6.25% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 115.00 5.1%
TCKBCN 5.2% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 101.25 5.1%
TCKBCN 5.4% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 103.00 5.2%
For institutional investors only. Please refer to the disclaimer on the last page of this document. | 10 |
Net 2026-
TKOCN 8.75% B3/B- 1.3x 104.38 8.4% 7.6%
IIICN 7% Caa3/CC 11.9x 95.75 108.5% 11.1%
FMCN 7% B3/B- 4.8x 103.60 5.5% 5.7%
FMCN 7.25% B3/B- 4.8x 104.25 21.3% 6.1%
FMCN 7.25% B3/B- 4.8x 106.41 6.3% 5.8%
FMCN 7.5% B3/B- 4.8x 108.03 6.0% 6.1%
HBMCN 7.25% B3/B+ 1.3x 107.00 4.7% 5.6%
HBMCN 7.625% B3/B+ 1.3x 109.50 5.3% 5.9%
LUNCN 7.875% Ba2/BB NM 107.13 3.5% 6.1%
CDE 5.875% NA/BB- 0.3x 100.20 6.9% 5.8%
ELDCN 6.125% B1/B+ 0.4x 100.00 25.6% 6.1%
HL 6.875% B3/B 1.3x 102.40 19.4% 6.0%
IMGCN 7% B2/B+ NM 104.50 7.0% 6.2%
NGDCN 6.25% B3/B 2.7x 103.50 1.4% 5.4%
NGDCN 6.375% B3/B 2.7x 106.08 5.5% 5.4%
PDLLN 7.25% B3 /*-/B 2.9x 103.44 7.1% 6.3%
NORACQ 7.125% Ba3/BB- 1.7x 103.50 6.9% 6.3%
ARLP 7.5% B1/BB- 0.8x 108.75 7.1% 6.3%
CLD 12% Caa3/B- 1.3x 109.21 7.2% 9.0%
CLD 6.375% Ca/CCC 1.8x 84.00 26.0% 9.9%
FELP 11.5% Caa2/CCC 4.8x 88.00 20.8% 14.9%
MURREN 11.25% Caa3/CCC PRIVATE 54.25 444.6% 36.5%
NRP 10.5% Caa2/- 3.8x 107.69 7.8% 8.3%
BTU 6% Ba3/B+ 0.5x 103.57 5.3% 5.0%
BTU 6.375% Ba3/B+ 0.5x 104.75 6.1% 5.6%
SXCP 7.5% B2/BB- 3.6x 105.25 7.3% 6.6%
Net 2026-
BHP 6.5% A3/A 0.8x 104.79 2.4%
BHP 3.25% A3/A 0.8x 101.97 2.7%
BHP 2.875% A3/A 0.8x 100.11 2.8%
BHP 3.85% A3/A 0.8x 104.46 3.0%
BHP 6.42% A3/A 0.8x 121.64 3.3%
BHP 6.25% A3/A 0.8x 129.62 3.7%
BHP 4.125% A3/A 0.8x 107.16 3.7%
BHP 5% A3/A 0.8x 120.52 3.7%
RIOLN 4.125% A3/A- 0.4x 104.85 2.6%
RIOLN 3.75% A3/A- 0.4x 103.52 2.7%
RIOLN 3.5% A3/A- 0.4x 101.58 3.1%
RIOLN 2.875% A3/A- 0.4x 100.32 2.8%
RIOLN 7.125% A3/A- 0.4x 130.43 3.6%
RIOLN 7.25% A3/A- 0.4x 126.25 4.2%
RIOLN 7.25% A3/A- 0.4x 128.02 4.4%
RIOLN 6.125% A3/A- 0.4x 126.62 3.9%
RIOLN 5.75% A3/A- 0.4x 121.84 4.0%
RIOLN 5.2% A3/A- 0.4x 120.73 3.8%
RIOLN 4.75% A3/A- 0.4x 114.41 3.8%
RIOLN 4.125% A3/A- 0.4x 106.15 3.7%
VALEBZ 4.625% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 105.77 2.4%
VALEBZ 5.875% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 109.08 3.0%
VALEBZ 4.375% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 104.02 3.3%
VALEBZ 6.25% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 116.00 4.0%
VALEBZ 7.2% Ba3/BBB- 1.5x 115.87 5.6%
VALEBZ 8.25% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 134.22 5.1%
VALEBZ 6.875% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 124.46 4.9%
VALEBZ 6.875% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 124.42 5.0%
VALEBZ 5.625% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 111.93 4.8%
Net 2026-
ABXCN 4.95% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 104.78 2.5%
ABXCN 4.4% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 105.98 2.5%
ABXCN 3.85% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 104.17 2.8%
ABXCN 6.375% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 116.49 4.8%
ABXCN 5.8% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 110.98 4.8%
ABXCN 6.45% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 125.20 4.4%
ABXCN 6.35% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 130.13 4.0%
ABXCN 6.35% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 128.76 4.1%
ABXCN 7.5% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 138.05 4.6%
ABXCN 5.95% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 119.54 4.5%
ABXCN 5.7% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 121.30 4.3%
ABXCN 5.25% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 116.49 4.2%
ABXCN 5.75% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 123.58 4.2%
GCN 2.125% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 100.06 1.7%
GCN 3.625% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 102.55 2.8%
GCN 3.7% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 101.35 3.4%
GCN 5.45% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 115.63 4.4%
KCN 5.125% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 105.48 3.4%
KCN 5.95% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 109.99 4.0%
KCN 4.5% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 101.50 4.3%
KCN 6.875% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 115.75 5.6%
NEM 5.125% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 103.87 2.8%
NEM 3.5% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 101.62 3.1%
NEM 5.875% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 121.13 4.1%
NEM 6.25% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 126.93 4.3%
NEM 4.875% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 109.82 4.2%
NCMAU 4.45% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 104.59 3.2%
NCMAU 4.2% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 103.26 3.4%
NCMAU 5.75% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 112.84 4.8%
YRICN 6.97% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 106.09 3.6%
YRICN 4.76% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 103.29 3.9%
YRICN 4.95% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 104.33 4.2%
YRICNStifel,
Source: 4.625% Baa3/BB+
Company reports, Bloomberg 2.4x 99.75 4.7%
Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
Net 2026-
GLENLN 2.5% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 99.99 2.5%
GLENLN 3.125% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 100.71 2.5%
GLENLN 2.875% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 100.40 2.7%
GLENLN 5.95% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 107.57 2.8%
GLENLN 4.95% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 106.69 3.1%
GLENLN 4.25% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 104.34 3.3%
GLENLN 3% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 98.87 3.3%
GLENLN 4.125% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 103.30 3.4%
GLENLN 4.625% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 105.76 3.6%
GLENLN 4% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 101.32 3.8%
GLENLN 4% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 99.60 4.1%
GLENLN 3.875% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 98.70 4.0%
GLENLN 6.9% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 123.55 5.0%
GLENLN 6% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 117.30 4.8%
GLENLN 5.55% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 111.45 4.8%
SCCO 5.375% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 106.42 2.4%
SCCO 3.5% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 102.64 2.9%
SCCO 3.875% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 103.60 3.3%
SCCO 9.25% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 134.70 4.9%
SCCO 7.5% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 136.32 4.5%
SCCO 6.75% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 131.33 4.5%
SCCO 5.25% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 112.68 4.4%
SCCO 5.875% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 122.11 4.5%
CDEL 3.75% A3/A+ 2.8x 103.27 2.5%
CDEL 3.875% A3/A+ 2.8x 103.01 3.0%
CDEL 3% A3/A+ 2.8x 99.22 3.2%
CDEL 4.5% A3/A+ 2.8x 106.01 3.3%
CDEL 2.25% A3/A+ 2.8x 107.35 1.1%
CDEL 4.5% A3/A+ 2.8x 106.43 3.5%
CDEL 3.625% A3/A+ 2.8x 98.99 3.8%
CDEL 5.625% A3/A+ 2.8x 118.87 4.1%
CDEL 6.15% A3/A+ 2.8x 125.50 4.2%
CDEL 4.25% A3/A+ 2.8x 102.27 4.1%
CDEL 5.625% A3/A+ 2.8x 122.53 4.2%
CDEL 4.875% A3/A+ 2.8x 111.29 4.2%
CDEL 4.5% A3/A+ 2.8x 105.86 4.2%
TRADING REL VALUE – G-SPREAD TO 1ST CALL / STM
Net
AA 6.75% Ba2/BB 0.0x 109.13 205 258
AA 7% Ba2/BB 0.0x 112.01 205 266
KALU 5.875% Ba3/BB+ 0.5x 106.90 187 209
AKS 7.5% B1/BB- 1.4x 108.25 225 326
AKS 7.625% B3/B- 2.7x 103.75 669 419
AKS 6.375% B3/B- 2.7x 101.00 490 363
AKS 7% B3/B- 2.7x 104.00 430 380
BSLAU 6.5% -/- 0.2x 104.25 159 286
CMC 4.875% Ba2/BB+ 2.1x 102.53 224
CMC 5.375% Ba2/BB+ 2.1x 103.50 267 229
MTNA 5.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 105.00 81
MTNA 5.25% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 106.53 92
MTNA 5.5% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 107.52 122
MTNA 6.25% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 111.69 132
MTNA 6.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 114.50 127
MTNA 7% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 128.36 251
MTNA 7.5% Ba1/BB+ 1.5x 128.25 235
NUE 4.125% Baa1/A- 1.1x 105.74 37
NUE 4% Baa1/A- 1.1x 103.54 82
NUE 6.4% Baa1/A- 1.1x 131.57 131
NUE 5.2% Baa1/A- 1.1x 119.34 116
STLD 5.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 102.63 290 208
STLD 5.25% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 102.60 378 224
STLD 5.5% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 105.50 172 200
STLD 4.125% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 101.50 213 132
STLD 5% Ba1/BB+ 1.0x 105.49 176 164
X 8.375% B1/BB- NM 108.43 156 272
X 7.375% Caa1/B 1.6x 107.35 175
X 6.875% Caa1/B 1.6x 105.38 372 341
X 6.65% Caa1/B 1.6x 99.63 394
Key: Yield to 1st Call YTM
Net
ARNC 5.72% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 103.02 106
ARNC 6.15% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 107.63 90
ARNC 5.4% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 106.49 92
ARNC 5.87% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 108.09 140
ARNC 5.125% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 106.90 138
ARNC 5.9% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 113.01 154
ARNC 6.75% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 118.60 179
ARNC 5.95% Ba2/BBB- 2.9x 109.98 238
ATI 5.95% B3/B 5.6x 103.00 262 267
ATI 7.875% B3/B 5.6x 109.00 343
ATI 6.95% B3/B+ 5.6x 103.20 384
BARPTY 6.625% B1/- 3.6x 99.25 782 448
GSM 9.375% -/- 3.7x 109.10 316 447
MCGRND 7.375% B2/B NA 107.00 328 346
ARS 9.5% B+/B- 4.2x 106.00 110 514
ARS 7.875% Caa2/CCC+ 6.6x 100.75 2,170 541
CSTM 5.75% B3/B- 4.5x 102.75 382 272
CSTM 6.625% B3/B- 4.5x 104.92 355 321
CSTM 5.875% B3/B- 4.5x 102.95 355 283
HNDLIN 6.25% B2/B 3.6x 104.76 399 285
HNDLIN 5.875% B2/B 3.6x 102.75 349 287
CLF 5.75% B2/B 1.5x 98.13 659 352
CLF 5.9% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 101.03 331
CLF 4.8% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 97.50 367
CLF 4.875% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 95.71 418
CLF 6.25% Caa1/CCC+ 2.6x 82.13 518
FMGAU 9.75% Baa3/BB 0.2x 110.66 (70) 441
FMGAU 4.75% Ba2/BB 0.6x 101.95 190
FMGAU 5.125% Ba2/BB 0.6x 102.00 224
Key: Yield to 1st Call YTM
Net
TKOCN 8.75% B3/B- 1.3x 104.38 649 520
IIICN 7% Caa3/CC 11.9x 95.75 10,726 925
FMCN 7% B3/B- 4.8x 103.60 426 351
FMCN 7.25% B3/B- 4.8x 104.25 2,004 376
FMCN 7.25% B3/B- 4.8x 106.41 431 336
FMCN 7.5% B3/B- 4.8x 108.03 389 354
HBMCN 7.25% B3/B+ 1.3x 107.00 277 319
HBMCN 7.625% B3/B+ 1.3x 109.50 323 338
LUNCN 7.875% Ba2/BB NM 107.13 177 372
CDE 5.875% NA/BB- 0.3x 100.20 485 332
ELDCN 6.125% B1/B+ 0.4x 100.00 2,438 396
HL 6.875% B3/B 1.3x 102.40 1,814 384
IMGCN 7% B2/B+ NM 104.50 491 365
NGDCN 6.25% B3/B 2.7x 103.50 11 300
NGDCN 6.375% B3/B 2.7x 106.08 341 279
PDLLN 7.25% B3 /*-/B 2.9x 103.44 528 397
NORACQ 7.125% Ba3/BB- 1.7x 103.50 491 386
ARLP 7.5% B1/BB- 0.8x 108.75 360 343
CLD 12% Caa3/B- 1.3x 109.21 545 677
CLD 6.375% Ca/CCC 1.8x 84.00 2,423 741
FELP 11.5% Caa2/CCC 4.8x 88.00 1,871 1,245
MURREN 11.25% Caa3/CCC PRIVATE 54.25 44,321 3,424
NRP 10.5% Caa2/- 3.8x 107.69 598 594
BTU 6% Ba3/B+ 0.5x 103.57 350 271
BTU 6.375% Ba3/B+ 0.5x 104.75 402 300
SXCP 7.5% B2/BB- 3.6x 105.25 516 402
KEY: Yield to 1st Call STM
Net
BHP 6.5% A3/A 0.8x 104.79 54
BHP 3.25% A3/A 0.8x 101.97 42
BHP 2.875% A3/A 0.8x 100.11 53
BHP 3.85% A3/A 0.8x 104.46 52
BHP 6.42% A3/A 0.8x 121.64 76
BHP 6.25% Baa1/A 0.8x 129.62 100
BHP 4.125% A3/A 0.8x 107.16 87
BHP 5% A3/A 0.8x 120.52 93
RIOLN 4.125% A3/A- 0.4x 104.85 37
RIOLN 3.75% A3/A- 0.4x 103.52 47
RIOLN 3.5% A3/A- 0.4x 101.58 77
RIOLN 2.875% A3/A- 0.4x 100.32 45
RIOLN 7.125% A3/A- 0.4x 130.43 97
RIOLN 7.25% A3/A- 0.4x 126.25 155
RIOLN 7.25% A3/A- 0.4x 128.02 174
RIOLN 6.125% A3/A- 0.4x 126.62 116
RIOLN 5.75% A3/A- 0.4x 121.84 127
RIOLN 5.2% A3/A- 0.4x 120.73 104
RIOLN 4.75% A3/A- 0.4x 114.41 102
RIOLN 4.125% A3/A- 0.4x 106.15 93
VALEBZ 4.625% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 105.77 22
VALEBZ 5.875% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 109.08 80
VALEBZ 4.375% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 104.02 98
VALEBZ 6.25% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 116.00 142
VALEBZ 7.2% Ba3/BBB- 1.5x 115.87 291
VALEBZ 8.25% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 134.22 239
VALEBZ 6.875% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 124.46 213
VALEBZ 6.875% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 124.42 224
VALEBZ 5.625% Ba1/BBB- 1.5x 111.93 198
Net
AALLN 9.375% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 107.98 76
AALLN 3.625% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 102.23 53
AALLN 4.45% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 104.26 64
AALLN 4.125% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 103.26 84
AALLN 3.75% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 101.56 102
AALLN 4.125% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 103.17 99
AALLN 4.875% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 105.93 137
AALLN 4.75% Baa3/BBB- 0.8x 104.91 149
FCX 3.1% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.00 103
FCX 4% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.50 157
FCX 3.55% B1/BB- 1.8x 98.00 177
FCX 6.875% B1/BB- 1.8x 103.97 331
FCX 3.875% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.59 132
FCX 4.55% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.68 190
FCX 7.125% Ba2/BB- 1.8x 113.23 273
FCX 9.5% Ba2/BB- 1.8x 129.91 350
FCX 6.125% Ba2/BB- 1.8x 104.53 298
FCX 5.4% B1/BB- 1.8x 100.00 269
FCX 5.45% B1/BB- 1.8x 99.40 268
TCKBCN 8.5% Ba1/BB+ 0.0x 112.63 162 355
TCKBCN 4.75% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 103.50 146
TCKBCN 3.75% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 100.69 119
TCKBCN 6.125% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 112.25 234
TCKBCN 6% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 111.59 234
TCKBCN 6.25% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 115.00 234
TCKBCN 5.2% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 101.25 231
TCKBCN 5.4% Ba3/BB+ 1.1x 103.00 237
Net
ABXCN 4.95% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 104.78 40
ABXCN 4.4% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 105.98 30
ABXCN 3.85% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 104.17
ABXCN 6.375% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 116.49 46
ABXCN 5.8% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 110.98 213
ABXCN 6.45% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 125.20 212
ABXCN 6.35% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 130.13 166
ABXCN 6.35% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 128.76 130
ABXCN 7.5% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 138.05 139
ABXCN 5.95% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 119.54 186
ABXCN 5.7% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 121.30 175
ABXCN 5.25% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 116.49 146
ABXCN 5.75% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 123.58 136
GCN 2.125% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 100.06 40
GCN 3.625% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 102.55 58
GCN 3.7% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 101.35 98
GCN 5.45% Baa3/BBB+ 1.5x 115.63 160
KCN 5.125% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 105.48 116
KCN 5.95% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 109.99 154
KCN 4.5% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 101.50 169
KCN 6.875% Ba1/BB+ 0.7x 115.75 285
NEM 5.125% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 103.87 78
NEM 3.5% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 101.62 76
NEM 5.875% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 121.13 142
NEM 6.25% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 126.93 155
NEM 4.875% Baa2/BBB 0.4x 109.82 142
NCMAU 4.45% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 104.59 88
NCMAU 4.2% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 103.26 105
NCMAU 5.75% Baa3/BBB- 1.1x 112.84 203
YRICN 6.97% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 106.09 160
YRICN 4.76% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 103.29 157
YRICN 4.95% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 104.33 164
YRICN 4.625% Baa3/BB+ 2.4x 99.75 202
Net
Bond Issue Ratings Leverage 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-2029 2030+
GLENLN 2.5% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 74
GLENLN 3.125% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 99.99 70
GLENLN 2.875% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 100.71 61
GLENLN 5.95% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 100.40 69
GLENLN 4.95% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 107.57 79
GLENLN 4.25% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 106.69 86
GLENLN 3% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 104.34 86
GLENLN 4.125% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 98.87 99
GLENLN 4.625% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 103.30 108
GLENLN 4% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 105.76 122
GLENLN 4% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 101.32 144
GLENLN 3.875% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 99.60 141
GLENLN 6.9% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 98.70 226
GLENLN 6% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 123.55 197
GLENLN 5.55% Baa2/BBB 2.2x 117.30 195
SCCO 5.375% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 111.45 31
SCCO 3.5% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 106.42 50
SCCO 3.875% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 102.64 75
SCCO 9.25% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 103.60 225
SCCO 7.5% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 134.70 176
SCCO 6.75% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 136.32 172
SCCO 5.25% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 131.33 159
SCCO 5.875% Baa2/BBB 1.8x 112.68 162
CDEL 3.75% A3/A+ 2.8x 122.11 37
CDEL 3.875% A3/A+ 2.8x 103.27 74
CDEL 3% A3/A+ 2.8x 103.01 82
CDEL 4.5% A3/A+ 2.8x 99.22 84
CDEL 2.25% A3/A+ 2.8x 106.01 96
CDEL 4.5% A3/A+ 2.8x 107.35 96
CDEL 3.625% A3/A+ 2.8x 106.43 113
CDEL 5.625% A3/A+ 2.8x 98.99 138
CDEL 6.15% A3/A+ 2.8x 118.87 143
CDEL 4.25% A3/A+ 2.8x 125.50 129
CDEL 5.625% A3/A+ 2.8x 102.27 136
CDEL 4.875% A3/A+ 2.8x 122.53 133
CDEL 4.5% A3/A+ 2.8x 111.29 129
OPERATING METRICS COMP SHEET - STEEL
Next FYE 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 8/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2017
Allegheny Commercial Arcelor Steel

($MM) AK Steel Technologies Metals Mittal Nucor Dynamics US Steel
Bond Ti cker AKS ATI CMC MTNA NUE STLD X
Equi ty Ti cker AKS ATI CMC MT NA NUE STLD X
Ra tings B3 / B- B3 /Ba
B+2 /*- / BB+ /*- Ba 1 / BB+ Ba a 1 / A- Ba 1 / NR Ca a 1 / B
F2015 Steel Production (MM tons ) 7.1 -- 3.5 92.5 19.3 8.5 16.0
F2016 Steel Production (MM tons ) 6.1 -- 3.6 90.8 21.3 9.5 15.7
F2015 EBITDA 393 164 366 5,231 1,600 706 202

F2016 EBITDA 502 113 298 6,255 2,058 1,172 510
LTM EBITDA 519 319 324 7,928 2,554 1,404 919
F2017E EBITDA 404 461 396 8,258 2,645 1,611 1,097
F2018E EBITDA 639 557 487 8,453 3,059 1,632 1,386
Cons ens us FY Ca pex (141) (99) (198) (2,872) (502) (221) (589)
F2015 EBITDA/ton $55 NM $104 $57 $83 $83 $13

F2016 EBITDA/ton $83 NM $82 $69 $97 $123 $33
Ca s h ($MM) 69 125 276 2,272 1,626 1,102 1,694

Total Debt ($MM) 2,098 1,914 1,063 14,156 4,392 2,534 2,899
Net Debt ($MM) 2,029 1,789 788 11,884 2,766 1,432 1,205
Gros s Levera ge 4.0x 6.0x 3.3x 1.8x 1.7x 1.8x 3.2x

Net Levera ge 3.9x 5.6x 2.4x 1.5x 1.1x 1.0x 1.3x
LTM
CFFO 171 22 141 3,331 1,328 740 691
Les s : Ca pex (134) (123) (230) (2,585) (570) (165) (329)
FCF before Shareholder Distributions 36 (100) (89) 746 759 575 362
FCF to Total Debt 2% -5% -8% 5% 17% 23% 12%
Les s : Di vi dends - - (56) (127) (485) (146) (35)
Les s : Sha re Repurcha s es - (10) (11) - (90) (252) (2)
FCF 36 (110) (155) 619 184 177 325
FCF to Total Debt 2% -6% -15% 4% 4% 7% 11%
TEV 4,385 5,263 3,598 50,889 25,065 12,431 8,227

Net Debt/TEV 46% 34% 22% 23% 11% 12% 15%
OPERATING METRICS COMP SHEET – IRON ORE
Next FYE 6/30/2018 12/31/2017 6/30/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2017
Cleveland Fortescue
($MM) BHP Billiton Cliffs Metals Rio Tinto VALE
Bond Ti cker BHP CLF FMGAU RIOLN VALEBZ
Equi ty Ti cker BHP CLF FMG AU RIO LN VALE
Ra tings A3 / A B2 / B Ba 2 / BB A3 / A- Ba 1 / BBB-
(mt) (l t) (mt) (mt) (mt)
F2016 Iron Ore Production (100% Ba s i s ) 257.3 29.8 169.4 329.5 348.8
F2017 Iron Ore Production (100% Ba s i s ) 268.3 30.0 170.3 330.0 360-380
F2018 Iron Ore Production 275-280 170.0
APIO
F2016 C1/wmt $15.06 $36 $15.43 N/A $13.30
F2017 C1/wmt $14.60 $35 $12.82 N/A N/A
F2018 C1/wmt Gui da nce $14.00 N/A $11-$12 N/A N/A
BRL
F2015 EBITDA 21,852 293 2,506 12,621 6,625
F2016 EBITDA 12,340 374 3,195 13,510 11,808
F2017 EBITDA 20,296 4,744
LTM EBITDA 20,296 557 4,744 17,185 16,004
2017E EBITDA reported 498 reported 18,944 15,050
F2018E EBITDA 23,784 533 3,634 17,816 14,582
F2019E EBITDA 21,541 3,135
Cons ens us FY Ca pex (6,392) (116) (926) (4,398) (13,280)
Ca s h ($MM) 14,153 261 1,838 8,099 4,725

Total Debt ($MM) 30,474 1,736 4,471 15,848 25,826
Net Debt ($MM) 16,321 1,475 2,633 7,749 21,101
Gros s Levera ge 1.5x 3.1x 0.9x 0.9x 1.6x

Net Levera ge 0.8x 2.6x 0.6x 0.5x 1.5x
CFFO 16,804 438 4,209 11,531 11,663

Les s : Ca pex (5,220) (102) (729) (3,452) (4,237)
FCF before Sha rehol der Di s tri butions 11,584 335 3,480 8,079 7,426
FCF to Total Debt 38% 19% 78% 51% 29%
Les s : Di vi dends (2,921) - (755) (3,057) (1,808)
Les s : Sha re Repurcha s es (108) (0) - (252) -
FCF 8,555 335 2,725 4,770 5,618
FCF to Total Debt 28% 19% 61% 30% 22%
TEV 146,195 3,948 15,184 113,969 88,670

Net Debt/TEV 11% 37% 17% 7% 24%
OPERATING METRICS COMP SHEET - COPPER
Next FYE 6/30/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017
Equi ty Ti cker BHP FCX FM CN HBM CN III CN LUN CN TKO CN SCCO 1006Z CI
Bond Ti cker BHP FCX FMCN HBMCN IIICN LUNCN TKOCN SCCO CDEL
Ra tings A3 / A B1 / BB- B3 / B- B3 / B+ Ca a 3 / CC Ba 2 / BB B3 / B- Ba a 2 / BBB A3 / A+
2015 Copper Production (MM tons ) 1,882,547 2,008,500 452,950 162,303 54,883 305,301 70,600 742,993 1,891,000
2016 Copper Production (MM tons ) 1,740,940 2,323,500 594,483 147,042 64,646 283,192 66,600 899,955 1,827,000
2017E Copper Production 1,850,000
2015 Copper C1 ($/l b) $ 1.57 $ 1.21 $ 1.28 $ 1.77 $ 1.25 $ 1.96 $ 1.12 $ 1.39
F2016 Copper C1 ($/l b) $ 1.20 $ 1.26 $ 1.06 $ 1.06 $ 1.52 $ 1.31 $ 1.85 $ 0.95 $ 1.26
F2017 Copper C1 Gui da nce $ 1.15 $ 1.19 $1.20-1.40 $ 1.16
F2018 $ 1.15
F2015 EBITDA 21,852 4,383 773 238 1 650 56 1,945 3,575

F2016 EBITDA 12,340 4,867 964 402 107 597 42 2,212 3,075
LTM EBITDA 20,296 5,101 1,054 509 52 809 178 2,922 4,859
Cons ens us F2017 EBITDA 23,784 5,689 1,129 611 87 1,069 180 3,209 NA
Cons ens us F2018 EBITDA 21,541 7,664 1,900 667 110 748 165 4,066 NA
Cons ens us FY Ca pex (6,392) (1,460) (1,550) (245) (73) (485) (87) (1,104) NA
Ca s h 14,153 4,957 476 329 11 2,221 96 729 890

Total Debt 30,474 14,782 6,466 1,065 896 994 331 5,956 15,180
Net Debt 16,321 9,825 5,990 736 885 (1,228) 236 5,227 14,290
Gros s Levera ge 1.5x 2.9x 6.1x 2.1x 17.3x 1.2x 1.9x 2.0x 3.1x
Net Levera ge 0.8x 1.9x 5.7x 1.4x 17.1x -1.5x 1.3x 1.8x 2.9x
LTM
CFFO 16,804 4,153 807 438 10 714 229 1,567 3,092
Les s : Ca pex (5,220) (1,524) (1,862) (205) (89) (341) (77) (991) (2,974)
FCF before Sha rehol der Di s tri butions 11,584 2,629 (1,055) 232 (79) 373 152 576 118
FCF to Total Debt 38% 18% -16% 22% -9% 38% 46% 10% 1%
Les s : Di vi dends (2,921) (3) (5) (4) - (51) - (302) (170)
Les s : Sha re Repurcha s es (108) 1,480 - - - - - - -
FCF 8,555 4,106 (1,060) 229 (79) 322 152 275 (52)
FCF to Total Debt 28% 28% -16% 21% -9% 32% 46% 5% 0%
TEV 146,195 40,934 16,511 3,119 1,145 4,328 735 43,112 NA

Net Debt/TEV 11% 24% 36% 24% 77% -28% 32% 12% NA
OPERATING METRICS COMP SHEET - GOLD
Next FYE 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 6/30/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2017
Barrick Newmont Newcrest Gold Corp Kinross AngloAshanti Yamana Eldorado IAMGOLD New Gold
Bond Ti cker ABX CN NEM NCM AU G CN K CN ANG SJ YRI CN ELD CN IMG CN NGD CN
Equi ty Ti cker ABX NEM NCMAU GCN KCN ANGSJ YRICN ELDCN IMGCN NGDCN
Ra ti ngs WR / BBB- Ba a 2 / BBB Ba a 3 / BBB- Ba a 3 / BBB+ Ba 1 / BB+ Ba a 3 / BB+ Ba a 3 / BB+ B1 / B+ B2 / B+ B3 / B
2015 Gol d Producti on (oz.) 6,117,000 4,584,000 2,422,568 3,464,400 2,594,652 3,947,000 1,275,375 723,532 806,000 435,718
2016 Gol d Producti on (oz.) 5,517,000 4,898,000 2,438,994 2,873,000 2,789,150 3,628,000 1,269,015 486,025 813,000 381,663
2017 Gol d Producti on (oz.) #VALUE! #VALUE! 2,380,630 2,569,000 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 292,980 #VALUE! #VALUE!
FY Gol d Producti on Gui da nce (MM oz.) 5.3-5.5 5.0-5.4 2.4-2.7 2.5 +/- 5% 2.5-2.7 3.6-3.75 0.96 . .845-.885 .38-.43
2015 Gol d Ca s h Cos t/oz, net of by-product $596 $663 $632 $605 $684 $712 $596 $606 $835 $443
2016 Gol d Ca s h Cos t/oz, net of by-product $546 $682 $594 $573 $696 $744 $1,008 $621 $739 $349
2017 Gol d Ca s h Cos t/oz, net of by-product -- -- -- -- -- -- $532 -- --
2017E Gol d Ca s h Cos t/oz, net of by-product $520-$535 $675-$715 $660-$720 $750-$800 $665-$675 NA $740-$780 $630-670
2018E Gol d Ca s h Cos t/oz, net of by-product 450
2016 Gol d AISC $730 $912 $787 $856 $975 $986 $911 $900 $1,057 $692
2017E Gol d AISC $740-$770 $900-$950 $823-$882 $825 +/- 5% $925-$1,025 $1,050-1,100 $890-$910 $900 $1,000-1,080 $760-800
2018E Gol d AISC 800
F2015 EBITDA 3,187 1,896 1,385 1,536 854 1,472 577 244 124 184
F2016 EBITDA 3,827 2,365 1,292 1,394 1,041 1,548 643 168 374 301
LTM EBITDA 3,966 2,546 1,408 1,753 1,081 1,377 621 148 336 308
Cons ens us F2017 EBITDA 4,109 2,654 1,515 1,453 1,221 1,181 636 111 340 322
Cons ens us F2018 EBITDA 3,879 2,561 1,878 1,690 1,272 1,514 799 197 380 435
Cons ens us FY Ca pex (1,402) (865) (653) (1,052) (848) (950) (563) (320) (214) (613)
Ca s h 2,025 3,045 492 195 992 183 125 551 811 207
Tota l Debt 6,447 4,050 1,991 2,826 1,732 2,366 1,643 596 410 969
Net Debt 4,422 1,005 1,499 2,631 740 2,183 1,517 45 (401) 762
Gros s Levera ge 1.6x 1.6x 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x 1.7x 2.6x 4.0x 1.2x 3.1x
Net Levera ge 1.1x 0.4x 1.1x 1.5x 0.7x 1.6x 2.4x 0.3x NM 2.5x
LTM
CFFO 2,186 2,217 1,467 939 827 1,043 486 62 294 214
Les s : Ca pex (1,372) (858) (627) (869) (811) (820) (591) (327) (200) (647)
FCF before Shareholder Distributions 814 1,359 840 70 16 223 (105) (265) 94 (433)
FCF to Total Debt 13% 34% 42% 2% 1% 9% -6% -44% 23% -45%
Les s : Di vi dends (116) (120) (105) (62) - (67) (19) (11) - -
Les s : Sha re Repurcha s es - - (19) - - - - (5) - -
FCF 698 1,239 716 8 16 156 (123) (281) 94 (433)
FCF to Total Debt 11% 31% 36% 0% 1% 7% -8% -47% 23% -45%
TEV 23,547 23,191 15,561 15,212 6,251 6,694 4,938 1,204 2,531 2,593
Net Debt/TEV 19% 4% 10% 17% 12% 33% 31% 4% NM 29%
DETAILED COMPS
Next Call Next Call LTM LTM Int. Net
Company Coupon Description Maturity Rating Rating Outlook Amt. Offer YTW G-Spread Date Price LTM Sales EBITDA Cov Debt/EBITDA
Arconic
5.720% Sr Notes 2/23/2019 Ba2/BBB- STABLE/STABLE 500 103.02 2.85% 106 NC NC 12,656 1,768 3.4x 2.9x
6.150% Sr Notes 8/15/2020 Ba2/BBB- STABLE/STABLE 1,000 107.63 3.03% 90 NC NC
5.400% Sr Notes 4/15/2021 Ba2/BBB- STABLE/STABLE 1,250 106.49 3.10% 92 100 1/15/2021
5.870% Sr Notes 2/23/2022 Ba2/BBB- STABLE/STABLE 627 108.09 3.71% 140 NC NC
5.125% Sr Notes 10/1/2024 Ba2/BBB- STABLE/STABLE 1,250 106.90 3.90% 138 100 7/1/2024
Alcoa
6.750% Sr Notes 9/30/2024 Ba2/BB STABLE/- 750 109.13 4.02% 205 105.06 9/30/2019 11,652 2,352 22.6x 0.0x
7.000% Sr Notes 9/30/2026 Ba2/BB STABLE/- 500 112.01 4.32% 205 103.50 9/30/2021
Kaiser Aluminum
5.875% Sr Notes 5/15/2024 Ba3/BB+ STABLE/STABLE 375 106.90 3.73% 187 104.406 5/15/2019 1,376 203 9.1x 0.5x
ArcelorMittal (USD Issues)
USD 5.125% Sr Notes 6/1/2020 Ba1/BB+ POS/POS 324 105.00 2.91% 81 NC NC 65,095 7,928 9.3x 1.5x
USD 5.250% Sr Notes 8/5/2020 Ba1/BB+ POS/POS 626 106.53 3.05% 92 NC NC
USD 7.000% Sr Notes 10/15/2039 Ba1/BB+ POS/POS 1,117 128.36 5.29% 251 NC NC
AK Steel
7.500% Sec Notes 7/15/2023 B1/BB- STABLE/POS 380 108.25 4.16% 225 103.75 7/15/2019 6,004 519 3.4x 1.4x
7.625% Sr Notes 10/1/2021 B3/B- STABLE/POS 406 103.75 4.74% 306 103.813 2/23/2018 2.7x
6.375% Sr Notes 10/15/2025 B3/B- STABLE/POS 280 101.00 6.12% 373 103.188 10/15/2020
7.000% Sr Notes 3/15/2027 B3/B- STABLE/POS 400 104.00 6.29% 373 103.5 3/15/2022
Allegheny Technologies
5.950% Sr Notes 1/15/2021 B3/B NEG/STABLE 500 103.00 4.76% 262 100 10/15/2020 3,411 319 2.4x 5.6x
7.875% Sr Notes 8/15/2023 B3/B NEG/STABLE 500 109.00 5.88% 343 100 5/15/2023
6.950% Sr Notes 12/15/2025 B3/B+ NEG/STABLE 150 103.20 6.43% 384 NC NC
BlueScope Steel
6.500% Sr Notes 5/15/2021 Ba1/BB+ -/- 500 104.25 3.06% 159 103.25 5/15/2018 10,649 1,485 16.5x 0.2x
Commercial Metals
4.875% Sr Notes 5/15/2023 Ba2/BB+ NEG/NEG 330 102.53 4.31% 188 100 2/15/2023 5,032 324 8.7x 2.1x
5.375% Sr Notes 7/15/2027 Ba2/BB+ NEG/NEG 300 103.50 4.81% 224 102.688 7/15/2022
DETAILED COMPS
Steel Dynamics
5.125% Sr Notes 10/1/2021 Ba1/BB+ STABLE/POS 700 102.63 3.08% 140 102.563 2/23/2018 1,404 1,404 10.5x 1.0x
5.250% Sr Notes 4/15/2023 Ba1/BB+ STABLE/POS 400 102.60 4.38% 217 102.625 4/15/2018
US Steel
8.375% Sec Notes 7/1/2021 B1/BB- NEG/STABLE 780 108.43 3.13% 156 106.281 7/1/2018 11,205 919 3.7x NM
7.375% Sr Notes 4/1/2020 Caa1/B NEG/STABLE 432 107.35 3.83% 175 NC NC 1.6
6.875% Sr Notes 8/15/2025 Caa1/B NEG/STABLE 750 105.38 5.52% 315 103.438 8/15/2020
6.650% Sr Notes 6/1/2037 Caa1/B NEG/STABLE 350 99.63 6.68% 394 NC NC
Nucor
5.850% Sr Notes 6/1/2018 Baa1/A- STABLE/STABLE 500 101.15 2.52% 101 NC NC 19,117 2,554 14.8x 1.1x
4.125% Sr Notes 9/15/2022 Baa1/A- STABLE/STABLE 600 105.74 2.73% 37 100 6/15/2022
6.400% Sr Notes 12/1/2037 Baa1/A- STABLE/STABLE 650 131.57 4.07% 131 NC NC
Aleris
9.500% Sec Notes 4/1/2021 B+/B- -/STABLE 800 106.00 2.46% 110 104.75 4/1/2018 2,747 214 2.1x 4.2x
7.875% Sr Notes 11/1/2020 Caa2/CCC+ -/STABLE 440 100.75 6.83% 513 101.969 2/23/2018 6.6x
Constellium
5.750% Sr Notes 5/15/2024 B3/B- STABLE/STABLE 400 102.75 5.03% 268 102.875 5/15/2019 5,150 412 2.2x 4.5x
6.625% Sr Notes 3/1/2025 B3/B- STABLE/STABLE 650 104.92 5.27% 295 103.313 3/1/2020
5.875% Sr Notes 2/15/2026 B3/B- STABLE/STABLE 500 102.95 5.18% 277 102.938 11/15/2020
Novelis
6.250% Sr Notes 8/15/2024 B2/B STABLE/- 1,150 104.76 5.07% 269 104.688 8/15/2019 10,397 1,134 4.6x 3.6x
5.875% Sr Notes 9/30/2026 B2/B STABLE/- 1,500 102.75 5.38% 284 102.938 9/30/2021
Moly-Cop/Grinding Media
7.375% Sec Notes 12/15/2023 B2/B -/- 775 107.00 5.31% 328 103.688 12/15/2019
Rain Carbon
7.250% 2L Notes 4/1/2025 B2/B -/- 550 109.12 5.16% 308 105.438 4/1/2020 PRIVATE PRIVATE PRIVATE 3.1x
DETAILED COMPS
Coupon Description Maturity Rating Rating Outlook Amt. Offer YTW G-Spread Next Call Next Call LTM Sales LTM LTM Int. Net
Fortescue Metals Group
9.750% 1L Notes 3/1/2022 Baa3/BB STABLE/- 2,160 110.66 0.58% (70) 109.75 3/1/2018 8,447 4,744 9.5x 0.2x
4.750% Sr Notes 5/15/2022 Ba2/BB STABLE/- 750 101.95 4.22% 191 100 2/15/2022 0.6x
5.125% Sr Notes 5/15/2024 Ba2/BB STABLE/- 750 102.00 4.74% 224 100 2/15/2024
Cliffs Natural Resources
4.875% Sec. Bonds 1/15/2024 Ba3/BB- STABLE/NEG 400 100.13 4.84% 242 102.438 1/15/2021 2,483 557 1.3x NM
5.750% G'teed Sr Notes 3/1/2025 B2/B STABLE/NEG 500 98.13 6.08% 352 104.313 3/1/2020 1.5x
5.900% Sr Notes 3/15/2020 Caa1/CCC+ STABLE/NEG 89 101.03 5.38% 331 NC NC 2.6x
4.800% Sr Notes 10/1/2020 Caa1/CCC+ STABLE/NEG 122 97.50 5.82% 367 NC NC
4.875% Sr Notes 4/1/2021 Caa1/CCC+ STABLE/NEG 138 95.71 6.38% 418 100 1/1/2021
6.250% Sr Notes 10/1/2040 Caa1/CCC+ STABLE/NEG 298 82.13 7.96% 518 NC NC
BHP Billiton
6.500% Sr Notes 4/1/2019 A3/A POS/- 770 104.79 2.37% 54 NC NC 38,285 20,296 14.2x 0.8x
3.250% Sr Notes 11/21/2021 A3/A POS/- 530 101.97 2.70% 42 NC NC
6.250% Sr Notes 5/15/2033 Baa1/A POS/- 200 129.62 3.70% 100 NC NC
4.125% Sr Notes 2/24/2042 A3/A POS/- 1,000 107.16 3.67% 87 NC NC
5.000% Sr Notes 9/30/2043 A3/A POS/- 2,500 120.52 3.75% 93 NC NC
Rio Tinto
4.125% Sr Notes 5/20/2021 A3/A- STABLE/ - 436 104.85 2.59% 37 NC NC 39,137 17,185 14.4x 0.4x
3.750% Sr Notes 9/20/2021 A3/A- STABLE/ - 353 103.52 2.73% 47 NC NC
3.500% Sr Notes 3/22/2022 A3/A- STABLE/ - 229 101.58 3.07% 77 100 12/22/2021
3.750% Sr Notes 6/15/2025 A3/A- STABLE/ - 1,200 103.46 3.20% 64 100 3/15/2025
7.125% Sr Notes 7/15/2028 A3/A- STABLE/ - 750 130.43 3.61% 97 NC NC
7.250% Sr Notes 11/1/2028 WR/A- STABLE/ - 100 126.25 4.19% 155 NC NC
5.200% Sr Notes 11/2/2040 A3/A- STABLE/ - 1,150 120.73 3.83% 104 NC NC
DETAILED COMPS
Next Call Next Call Net
Company Coupon Description Maturity Rating Rating Outlook Amt. Offer YTW G-Spread Date Price Sales EBITDA Int. Cov Debt/EBITDA
Barrick
4.950% Sr Notes 1/15/2020 Baa3/BBB- STABLE/POS 248 104.78 2.45% 40 NC NC 8,465 3,966 7.6x 1.1x
4.400% Sr Notes 5/30/2021 Baa3/BBB- STABLE/POS 616 105.98 2.53% 30 NC NC
Goldcorp
2.125% Sr Notes 3/15/2018 Baa3/BBB+ STABLE/NEG 500 100.06 1.71% 40 NC NC 3,468 1,753 12.7x 1.5x
3.625% Sr Notes 6/9/2021 Baa3/BBB+ STABLE/NEG 550 102.55 2.79% 58 100 4/9/2021
3.700% Sr Notes 3/15/2023 Baa3/BBB+ STABLE/NEG 1,000 101.35 3.40% 98 100 12/15/2022
5.450% Sr Notes 6/9/2044 Baa3/BBB+ STABLE/NEG 450 115.63 4.43% 160 100 12/9/2043
Newmont
5.125% Sr Notes 10/1/2019 Baa2/BBB STABLE/STABLE 626 103.87 2.75% 78 NC NC 7,202 2,546 9.9x 0.4x
3.500% Sr Notes 3/15/2022 Baa2/BBB STABLE/STABLE 992 101.62 3.05% 76 100 12/15/2021
5.875% Sr Notes 4/1/2035 Baa2/BBB STABLE/STABLE 600 121.13 4.14% 142 NC NC
6.250% Sr Notes 10/1/2039 Baa2/BBB STABLE/STABLE 874 126.93 4.32% 155 NC NC
4.875% Sr Notes 3/15/2042 Baa2/BBB STABLE/STABLE 1,000 109.82 4.21% 142 100 9/15/2041
Newcrest
4.450% Sr Notes 11/15/2021 Baa3/BBB- POS/- 750 104.59 3.16% 88 NC NC 3,477 1,408 13.7x 1.1x
4.200% Sr Notes 10/1/2022 Baa3/BBB- POS/- 750 103.26 3.44% 105 NC NC
5.750% Sr Notes 11/15/2041 Baa3/BBB- POS/- 500 112.84 4.84% 203 NC NC
Yamana
6.970% Sr Notes 12/21/2019 Baa3/BB+ NEG/STABLE 182 106.09 3.63% 160 NC NC 1,809 621 5.7x 2.4x
4.760% Sr Notes 3/23/2022 Baa3/BB+ NEG/STABLE 200 103.29 3.90% 157 NC NC
4.950% Sr Notes 7/15/2024 Baa3/BB+ NEG/STABLE 499 104.33 4.15% 164 100 4/15/2024
4.625% Sr Notes 12/15/2027 Baa3/BB+ NEG/STABLE 300 99.75 4.66% 202 100 9/15/2027
Kinross Gold
5.125% Sr Notes 9/1/2021 Ba1/BB+ STABLE/POS 500 105.48 3.38% 116 100 6/1/2021 3,396 1,065 9.2x 0.7x
5.950% Sr Notes 3/15/2024 Ba1/BB+ STABLE/POS 500 109.99 4.03% 154 100 12/15/2023
DETAILED COMPS
Next Call Next Call Net
Company Coupon Description Maturity Rating Rating Outlook Amt. Offer YTW G-Spread Date Price Sales EBITDA Int. Cov Debt/EBITDA
Coeur Mining
5.875% Sr Notes 6/1/2024 NA/BB- STABLE/STABLE 250 100.20 5.82% 347 102.938 6/1/2020 712 174 12.2x 0.3x
Eldorado Gold
6.125% Sr Notes 12/15/2020 B1/B+ NEG/STABLE 600 100.00 6.12% 438 101.531 2/23/2018 405 118 3.2x 0.4x
Hecla Mining
6.875% Sr Notes 5/1/2021 B3/B STABLE/STABLE 506 102.40 4.14% 270 103.438 2/23/2018 582 226 6.7x 1.3x
IAMGOLD
7.000% Sr Notes 4/15/2025 B2/B+ POS/STABLE 400 104.50 5.98% 354 105.25 4/15/2020 788 336 10.0x NM
New Gold
6.250% Sr Notes 11/15/2022 B3/B STABLE/STABLE 500 103.50 1.36% 11 103.125 2/23/2018 668 285 7.2x 2.7x
6.375% Sr Notes 5/15/2025 B3/B STABLE/STABLE 300 106.08 5.05% 261 104.781 5/15/2020
Petra Diamonds
7.250% Sr Notes 5/1/2022 B3 /*-/B -/- 650 103.44 6.07% 385 103.625 5/1/2019 505 203 5.2x 2.9x
Mountain Province
8.000% Sec. Notes 12/15/2022 B3/B- STABLE/- 330 99.50 8.12% 570 104 12/15/2019 505 203 5.2x 2.9x
Dominion Diamond
7.125% Sec. Notes 11/1/2022 Ba3/BB- -/- 550 103.50 6.07% 379 103.563 11/1/2019 683 302 7.6x 1.7x
Alliance Resource Partners
7.500% Sr Notes 5/1/2025 B1/BB- -/- 400 108.75 5.56% 311 105.625 5/1/2020 1,840 670 18.5x 0.8x
Cloud Peak
12.000% 2L Notes 11/1/2021 Caa3/B- -/STABLE 290 109.21 7.16% 545 106 11/1/2018 899 126 2.8x 1.3x
6.375% Sr Notes 3/15/2024 Ca/CCC -/STABLE 56 84.00 9.91% 741 103.188 3/15/2019 1.8x
Consol Mining
11.000% Sr Notes 11/15/2025 B3/CCC+ STABLE/STABLE 300 107.88 9.21% 673 105.5 11/15/2021 620 281 2.7x
Foresight Energy
11.500% Sr Notes 4/1/2023 Caa2/CCC -/- 425 88.00 14.89% 1,245 105.75 4/1/2020 923 313 2.0x 4.8x
Murray Energy
11.250% 2L Notes 4/15/2021 Caa3/CCC STABLE/STABLE 1,050 54.25 36.45% 3,424 108.438 4/15/2018 PRIVATE PRIVATE PRIVATE PRIVATE
Natural Resource Partners
10.500% Sr Notes 3/15/2022 Caa2/- -/- 346 107.69 7.68% 561 105.25 3/15/2019 369 222 2.6x 3.8x
Peabody Energy
6.000% Sr Notes 3/31/2022 Ba3/B+ STABLE/STABLE 500 103.57 4.77% 257 103 3/31/2019 5,503 1,422 14.6x 0.5x
6.375% Sr Notes 3/31/2025 Ba3/B+ STABLE/STABLE 500 104.75 5.31% 287 104.781 3/31/2020
SunCoke
7.500% Sr Notes 6/15/2025 B2/BB- -/- 700 105.25 6.33% 388 105.625 6/15/2020 829 227 4.2x 3.6x
Warrior Met Coal
8.000% 11/1/2024 B3/B+ STABLE/STABLE 350 106.00 6.51% 411 104 11/1/2020 1,083 366 NM 0.9x
Westmoreland
8.750% Sr Notes 1/1/2022 Caa3/CCC STABLE/NEG 350 50.75 31.39% 2,909 106.563 2/23/2018
DETAILED COMPS
Vale
4.625% Sr Notes 9/15/2020 Ba1/BBB- STABLE/POS 499 105.77 2.36% 22 NC NC 34,065 15,951 4.6x 1.5x
5.875% Sr Notes 6/10/2021 Ba1/BBB- STABLE/POS 1,250 109.08 3.02% 80 NC NC
7.200% Sr Notes 9/15/2032 Ba3/BBB- STABLE/POS 400 115.87 5.60% 291 NC NC
8.250% Sr Notes 1/17/2034 Ba1/BBB- STABLE/POS 800 134.22 5.09% 239 NC NC
Southern Copper
5.375% Sr Notes 4/16/2020 Baa2/BBB STABLE/POS 400 106.42 2.39% 31 NC NC 6,189 2,922 9.5x 1.8x
3.500% Sr Notes 11/8/2022 Baa2/BBB STABLE/POS 300 102.64 2.90% 50 NC NC
7.500% Sr Notes 7/27/2035 Baa2/BBB STABLE/POS 1,000 136.32 4.48% 176 NC NC
Codelco
3.750% Sr Notes 11/4/2020 A3/A+ STABLE/STABLE 585 103.27 2.52% 37 NC NC 13,185 4,859 8.0x 2.8x
3.875% Sr Notes 11/3/2021 A3/A+ STABLE/STABLE 485 103.01 3.02% 74 NC NC
4.500% Sr Notes 9/16/2025 A3/A+ STABLE/STABLE 1,621 106.43 3.53% 96 NC NC
3.625% Sr Notes 8/1/2027 A3/A+ STABLE/STABLE 1,500 98.99 3.75% 113 100 5/1/2027
4.500% Sr Notes 8/1/2047 A3/A+ STABLE/STABLE 1,250 105.86 4.15% 129 100 2/1/2047
DETAILED COMPS

Freeport McMoRan
2.375% Sr Notes 3/15/2018 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 1,482 100.00 2.35% 104 NC NC 15,739 5,460 8.4x 1.8x
3.100% Sr Notes 3/15/2020 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 998 100.00 3.10% 103 NC NC
4.000% Sr Notes 11/14/2021 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 600 100.50 3.86% 157 NC NC
3.550% Sr Notes 3/1/2022 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 1,893 98.00 4.08% 177 100 12/1/2021
6.875% Sr Notes 2/15/2023 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 50 103.97 5.10% 331 102.292 2/15/2019
4.550% Sr Notes 11/14/2024 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 850 100.68 4.43% 190 100 8/14/2024
7.125% Sr Notes 11/1/2027 Ba2/BB- POS / STABLE 115 113.23 5.37% 273 NC NC
5.400% Sr Notes 11/14/2034 B1/BB- POS / STABLE 750 100.00 5.40% 269 100 5/14/2034
HudBay Minerals Inc.

7.250% Sr Unsecured 1/15/2023 B3/B+ STABLE/STABLE 400 107.00 4.68% 277 103.625 7/15/2019 1,265 509 4.8x 1.3x
7.625% Sr Unsecured 1/15/2025 B3/B+ STABLE/STABLE 600 109.50 5.28% 323 105.719 1/15/2020
Glencore
2.500% Sr Notes 1/15/2019 Baa2/BBB STABLE/- 688 99.99 2.51% 74 NC NC 183,810 12,989 7.8x 2.2x
3.125% Sr Notes 4/29/2019 Baa2/BBB STABLE/- 447 100.71 2.55% 70 NC NC
4.950% Sr Notes 11/15/2021 Baa2/BBB STABLE/- 1,000 106.69 3.07% 79 NC NC
3.000% Sr Notes 10/27/2022 Baa2/BBB STABLE/- 500 98.87 3.26% 86 100 9/27/2022
4.000% Sr Notes 3/27/2027 Baa2/BBB STABLE/- 1,000 99.60 4.05% 144 100 12/27/2026
3.875% Sr Notes 10/27/2027 Baa2/BBB STABLE/- 500 98.70 4.04% 141 100 7/27/2027
DETAILED COMPS
Imperial Metals Corp C$ C$
7.000% Sr Unsecured 3/15/2019 Caa3/CC NEG/NEG 325 95.75 11.06% 925 103.5 2/23/2018 391 71 1.5x 11.9x
First Quantum Minerals
7.000% Sr Unsecured 2/15/2021 B3/B- NEG/POS 1,120 103.60 5.09% 330 103.5 2/23/2018 3,114 1,054 2.3x 4.8x
7.250% Sr Unsecured 5/15/2022 B3/B- NEG/POS 850 104.25 4.92% 345 105.438 2/23/2018
7.250% Sr Unsecured 4/1/2023 B3/B- NEG/POS 1,100 106.41 5.51% 318 105.438 10/1/2019
7.500% Sr Unsecured 4/1/2025 B3/B- NEG/POS 1,100 108.03 5.69% 325 105.625 4/1/2020
Lundin Mining Corp
7.875% 1st lien 11/1/2022 Ba2/BB STABLE/STABLE 445 107.13 3.48% 177 103.938 11/1/2018 1,856 996 12.5x NM
Taseko
8.750% Secured 6/15/2022 B3/B- STABLE/STABLE 250 104.38 7.27% 504 104.375 6/15/2019 375 178 3.9x 1.3x
Teck Resources C$ C$
8.500% Sr Notes 6/1/2024 Ba1/BB+ STABLE/STABLE 600 112.63 3.49% 162 106.375 6/1/2019 12,110 4,626 19.0x 1.1x
4.500% Sr Notes 1/15/2021 Ba3/BB+ STABLE/STABLE 220 101.23 4.02% 187 100 10/15/2020
6.125% Sr Notes 10/1/2035 Ba3/BB+ STABLE/STABLE 609 112.25 5.07% 234 NC NC
AngloAmerican
9.375% Sr Notes 4/8/2019 Baa3/BBB- STABLE/- 750 107.98 2.59% 76 NC NC 23,564 7,741 12.2x 0.8x
3.625% Sr Notes 5/14/2020 Baa3/BBB- STABLE/- 352 102.23 2.62% 53 NC NC
FerroGlobe
9.375% Sr Notes 3/1/2022 (P)B3/- -/- 350 109.10 4.96% 316 104.688 3/1/2019 1,663 139 2.4x 3.7x
Barminco A$
6.625% Sr Notes 5/15/2022 B1/- -/- 350 99.25 6.83% 448 103.313 5/15/2019 683 114 2.7x 3.6x
COMMODITY FUTURES CURVE
62% Iron Ore Futures Prices Zinc Futures Price

$3,600
$80
$3,400
$75
$70 $3,200
$65 $3,000
USD/mt
USD/dmt
$60
$2,800
$55
$50 $2,600
$45 $2,400
$40
$2,200
$35
$30 $2,000
01/2018 10/2018 07/2019 04/2020 01/2021 02/2018 12/2018 10/2019 08/2020 06/2021 04/2022 02/2023
Price Yesterday Price 1 Week Ago Price Yesterday Price 1 Week Ago
Price 1 Month Ago Price 6 Months Ago Price 1 Month Ago Price 6 Months Ago
Met Coal Futures Pricing Copper Futures Prices

$345
$265 $335
$245 $325
$225 $315
USD/100 lb
$305
USD/mt
$205
$295
$185 $285
$165 $275
$265
$145
$255
$125 $245
01/2018 11/2018 11/2019 01/2018 10/2018 07/2019 09/2020 07/2022
Price Yesterday Price 1 Week Ago Price Yesterday Price 1 Week Ago
Price 1 Month Ago Price 6 Months Ago Price 1 Month Ago Price 6 Months Ago
Source: Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
INDUSTRY CHARTS
Regional Hot Rolled US$/ton Turkish Scrap, Turkish Import & Chinese Billets
$1,200 400 $675
$210
$1,100 $625 $190
$1,000 300 $575 $170
Billet/Scrap Spread
$525 $150
$900 $130
US$/Tonne
$800 200 $475 $110
US$/Ton
$700 $425 $90

$375 $70
$600 100 $50
$500 $325 $30
$275 $10
$400 0 -$10
$300 $225 -$30
$200 -100 $175 -$50
1 Jan 08 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 11 12 Jun 14 11 Apr 17 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
China Domestic Billet, w/ VAT, $/ton Turkish Scrap CFR, $/ton
N. Europe HRC China HRC U.S Domestic HRC Differential Scrap/Billet Spread, 30 day avg.
Regional Hot Rolled US$/ton Turkish & US Scrap

$800 $400
$600 6.0x
$700 $350 5.5x
$500
$600
US/China Spread
$300 5.0x
Scrap-to-iron ore
$500 $400
US$/tonne
US$/Ton
$250 4.5x
$400 $300 4.0x
$200
$300 3.5x
$200
$200 $150 3.0x
$100 $100
$100 2.5x
$0 $50 $0 2.0x
Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
N. Europe HRC China HRC U.S Domestic HRC Differential Turkish Scrap Midwest Scrap Scrap to Iron Ore Ratio
Source: Platts, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
INDUSTRY CHARTS
$370
Premium Hard Coking Coal Architecture Billing Index
65
$320
60
$270
US$/tonne
55
$220 50
45
$170
40
$120
35
$70 30
Premium HCC
Global PMI North American Steel Capacity Utilization

105
65
95
60
85
55
75
50 % 65
45 55
40 45
Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17
35
Global PMI Europe PMI China PMI N. America PMI
INDUSTRY CHARTS
China & European HRC Spread to Spot Met & IO China & European HRC Spread to QBM Met & IO
$450 $450
$400 $400
$350 $350
$300 $300
$/ton
$/ton
$250 $250
$200 $200
$150 $150
$100
$100
$50
$50
.6 Met + 1.5 IO China HRC Raw Mat Spread .6 Met + 1.5 IO China HRC Raw Mat Spread
Euro HRC /Raw Mat Spread US/China HRC Spread Euro HRC /Raw Mat Spread US/China HRC Spread
China & European HRC Spread to Spot Met & IO China & European HRC Spread to QBM Met & IO
$450 $450
$400 $400
$350 $350
$300 $300
$/ton
$/ton
$250 $250
$200 $200
$150 $150
$100 $100
$50 $50
1/4/16 4/4/16 7/4/16 10/4/16 1/4/17 4/4/17 7/4/17 10/4/17 1/4/18 1/4/16 4/4/16 7/4/16 10/4/16 1/4/17 4/4/17 7/4/17 10/4/17 1/4/18
.6 Met + 1.5 IO China HRC Raw Mat Spread
.6 Met + 1.5 IO China HRC Raw Mat Spread
Euro HRC /Raw Mat Spread US/China HRC Spread Euro HRC /Raw Mat Spread US/China HRC Spread
Source: Platts, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
INDUSTRY CHARTS
Chinese Iron Ore Inventories & Iron Ore Prices Seaborn Iron Ore & Rebar
16,000 $180 $6,100 $195
$160 $5,600 $175
14,000 $140 $5,100 $155
$120
0,000 Tonnes
$4,600
CNY/ tonne
US$/Tonne
US$/tonne
12,000 $135
$100 $4,100
$115
$80 $3,600
10,000 $95
$60 $3,100
$40 $2,600 $75
8,000
$20 $2,100 $55
6,000 $0 $1,600 $35
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May-
Inventories Seaborn Iron Ore 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Chinese Rebar Seaborn Iron Ore
Steel Inventories Held by Chinese Traders 58% / 62% IO Pricing & Realizaiton
1,000 120.00%
$170 100%
100.00%
800 $150 95%
80.00%
$130 90%
60.00%
MM tonnes
600 85%
$/tonnes
40.00% $110
20.00% 80%
400 $90
0.00% 75%
$70 70%
200 -20.00%
$50 65%
-40.00%
0 -60.00% $30 60%
Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
China Steel Inventories Year Over Year Change 62% IO 58% IO % Realization
INDUSTRY CHARTS
Al, Zn, Cu Gold, Platinum & Silver Spot Price

$3,650 $5.25
$3,450 $2,000 $55
$3,250 $4.75 $1,800 $50
$3,050 $1,600 $45
$4.25
US$/mt, AL& Zn
$2,850
US$/oz, Au & Pt
$1,400
US$/oz, Ag
US$/lb, Cu
$2,650 $40
$3.75 $1,200
$2,450 $35
$3.25 $1,000
$2,250 $30
$2,050 $800
$2.75 $600 $25
$1,850
$1,650 $400 $20
$2.25
$1,450 $200 $15
$1,250 $1.75 $- $10
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Aluminum Zinc Copper Gold Platinum Silver
Al, Zn, Cu Gold, Platinum & Silver Spot Price

$3,650 $3.55 $1,450 $22
$3,450 $3.35 $1,350 $21
$3,250 $20
$3,050 $3.15
US$/oz, Au & Pt $1,250
US$/mt, Al & Zn
$2,850 $2.95 $19
US$/ oz, Ag
US$/lb, Cu
$2,650 $2.75 $1,150 $18

$2,450
$2.55 $1,050 $17
$2,250
$2,050 $2.35 $16
$950
$1,850 $2.15 $15
$1,650 $850
$1.95 $14
$1,450
$1,250 $1.75 $750 $13
Aluminum Zinc Copper Gold Platinum Silver
INDUSTRY CHARTS
Copper Price & Copper Inventories Aluminum Price & LME Aluminum Inventories
1,200,000 $5.00 6,000,000 $3,500

$4.50 $3,000
1,000,000 5,000,000
$4.00
Inventory (tonnes)
Inventory (tonnes)
$3.50 $2,500
800,000 4,000,000
US$/tonne
$3.00 $2,000
US$/lb
600,000 $2.50 3,000,000
$1,500
$2.00
400,000 2,000,000
$1.50 $1,000
200,000 $1.00 1,000,000 $500
$0.50
0 $0.00 0 $0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
LME Copper Inventories Shanghai Copper Inventory Copper Major Exchange Aluminum Inventory Aluminum
Copper Price & Copper Inventories Aluminum Price & LME Aluminum Inventories
450,000 $3.50 3,500,000 $2,250

400,000 $2,150
$3.00 3,000,000
Inventory (tonnes) $2,050
Inventory (tonnes)
350,000
$2.50 2,500,000 $1,950
US$/tonne
300,000
2,000,000 $1,850
US$/lb
250,000 $2.00
$1,750
200,000 $1.50 1,500,000 $1,650
150,000 1,000,000 $1,550
$1.00
100,000 $1,450
$0.50 500,000
50,000 $1,350
0 $0.00 0 $1,250
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
LME Copper Inventories Shanghai Copper Inventory Copper Major Exchange Aluminum Inventory Aluminum
INDUSTRY CHARTS
Zinc Price & LME Zinc Inventories HRC & Value-Add Flat Rolled Spreads
1,400,000 $5,000 1,000 $350
$4,500 900 $300
1,200,000 800
$4,000
Inventory (tonnes)
700 $250
Spread/ton
1,000,000 $3,500
600
US$/tonne
$200
$/ton
800,000 $3,000 500
$2,500 400 $150
600,000 $2,000 300 $100
400,000 $1,500 200
100 $50
$1,000
200,000 0 $0
$500
0 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
HRC CRC HDG CRC less HRC HDG less HRC
LME Zinc Invetories Zinc
Natural Gas Futures Curve PRB, API2 & Newcastle Coal Price
$3.45 $140.00 $18.00
$130.00 $16.00
$3.25 $120.00 $14.00
$110.00 $12.00
$/ton (PRB)
$3.05
$/MMBTU
$/Tonne
$100.00
$10.00
$2.85 $90.00
$8.00
$80.00
$2.65 $70.00 $6.00
$60.00 $4.00
$2.45 $2.00
$50.00
$2.25 $40.00 $-
02/2018 10/2018 06/2019 02/2020 10/2020 06/2021 02/2022 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17
Price Yesterday Price 1 Week Ago API2 Newcastle PRB
Price 1 Month Ago Price 6 Months Ago
INDUSTRY CHARTS
Global Steel Production China Steel Production
160,000 40.0% 80,000 50.0%
140,000 30.0% 70,000 40.0%
120,000 20.0% 60,000

30.0%
50,000
MM Tonnes
YoY Change
100,000 10.0%
MM Tonnes
YoY Change
20.0%
80,000 0.0% 40,000
10.0%
60,000 -10.0% 30,000
0.0%
40,000 -20.0% 20,000
10,000 -10.0%
20,000 -30.0%
- -40.0% - -20.0%
United States Steel Production North American Steel Production

10,000 100.0% 14,000 80.0%
9,000 80.0% 12,000 60.0%

8,000 60.0%
10,000 40.0%
7,000
40.0%
MM Tonnes
YoY Change
MM Tonnes
YoY Change
6,000 8,000 20.0%
20.0%
5,000
0.0% 6,000 0.0%
4,000
-20.0% 4,000 -20.0%
3,000
2,000 -40.0%
2,000 -40.0%
1,000 -60.0%
- -80.0% - -60.0%
Source: WSA Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
INDUSTRY CHARTS
EU (28) Steel Production Japan Steel Production

25,000 80.0% 12,000 80.0%
60.0% 10,000 60.0%

20,000
40.0% 40.0%
8,000
MM Tonnes
YoY Change
MM Tonnes
YoY Change
15,000 20.0% 20.0%
6,000
0.0% 0.0%
10,000
4,000
-20.0% -20.0%
5,000 2,000
-40.0% -40.0%
- -60.0% - -60.0%
Source: WSA Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com
PLEASE REVIEW THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER:
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt
research reports prepared for retail investors. The views expressed in this report may differ from views offered in Stifel’s debt research reports
prepared for retail investors. This report may not be independent of Stifel’s proprietary interests. Stifel trades the securities covered in this report
for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interest may be contrary to the recommendation(s)
offered in this report.
This publication is published by a debt research analyst as defined by FINRA Rule 2242 in reliance on the institutional exemption. This debt
research report and the debt research analyst responsible for the content is not independent of the firm’s trading activity and is not subject to all
of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research provided to retail investors.
The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of the publication. While the author believes its sources are reliable neither the
author nor Stifel represent the information to be complete or accurate.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The Firm may have positions in the securities
mentioned and may make purchases or sales of such securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise and may sell to or buy from
customers such securities on a principal basis; such transactions may be contrary to recommendations in this material.
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Please see the following link for a copy of the 2242 Affirmative and Negative Consent Letters, if you are not a Qualified Institutional Buyer as
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1.23.18 MM Sector Update Rel Val

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HIGH YIELD CREDIT

METALS & MINING SECTOR UPDATE AND RELATIVE VALUE

January 23, 2018

Source: Bloomberg, LME Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Allegheny Commercial Arcelor Steel

F2015 EBITDA 393 164 366 5,231 1,600 706 202

F2015 EBITDA/ton $55 NM $104 $57 $83 $83 $13

Ca s h ($MM) 69 125 276 2,272 1,626 1,102 1,694

Gros s Levera ge 4.0x 6.0x 3.3x 1.8x 1.7x 1.8x 3.2x

TEV 4,385 5,263 3,598 50,889 25,065 12,431 8,227

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Ca s h ($MM) 14,153 261 1,838 8,099 4,725

Gros s Levera ge 1.5x 3.1x 0.9x 0.9x 1.6x

CFFO 16,804 438 4,209 11,531 11,663

TEV 146,195 3,948 15,184 113,969 88,670

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

F2015 EBITDA 21,852 4,383 773 238 1 650 56 1,945 3,575

Ca s h 14,153 4,957 476 329 11 2,221 96 729 890

TEV 146,195 40,934 16,511 3,119 1,145 4,328 735 43,112 NA

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Next Call Next Call LTM LTM Int. Net

HudBay Minerals Inc.

Source: Stifel, Company reports, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

62% Iron Ore Futures Prices Zinc Futures Price

Met Coal Futures Pricing Copper Futures Prices

Source: Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

$700 $425 $90

Regional Hot Rolled US$/ton Turkish & US Scrap

Source: Platts, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Global PMI North American Steel Capacity Utilization

Source: Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Platts, Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Source: Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

Al, Zn, Cu Gold, Platinum & Silver Spot Price

Al, Zn, Cu Gold, Platinum & Silver Spot Price

$2,850 $2.95 $19

$2,650 $2.75 $1,150 $18

Aluminum Zinc Copper Gold Platinum Silver

Source: Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

1,200,000 $5.00 6,000,000 $3,500

450,000 $3.50 3,500,000 $2,250

Source: Bloomberg Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com

140,000 30.0% 70,000 40.0%

120,000 20.0% 60,000

United States Steel Production North American Steel Production

9,000 80.0% 12,000 60.0%

Source: WSA Nicholas Jarmoszuk 212.338.4726; jarmoszukn@stifel.com