Unit 6 Introduction to Basic Concepts in Probability ‘What this unit is all about ‘This unit contains exercises and solutions based on Unit 6 of the Business Statistics Module (STAT102). The unit covers the basic concepts in probability. 6.1 Worksheet 6: Exercises Q1. A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If the coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting exactly two tails? Q2. Of 1 000 items produced in a day in a certain factory, 400 are produced on the first shift, 350 on the second and 250 on the third. Suppose the proportions of defective items produced on the first, second and third shifts are 0.01, 0.02 and 0.04, respectively: (a) Anitem is picked at random. What is the probability that it was produced by: (i) the first shift? (ii) the second shift? the third shift? {iv) either first or second shift? (b) Draw a probability tree diagram, (c) What is the probability that it is: (i) defective? (ii) produced on the third shift given that it is defective? (iii) defective and also was produced on the first shift? 5152 Introduction to Basic Concepts in Probability Q3. The following data give the age distribution of a group of 80 people. Frequency, J 2 7 20 18 15 50 - 59 2 60 - 69 4 70-79 {a) Find the probability that (i) a person is aged between 20 and 39 years (ii) a person is at Teast. 60 years old. (b) If people under 40 years old are classified as “young” and people of 40 and above as “old”, what is the probability of (i) meeting a “young” person? (ii) meeting an “old” person? (ii) a “young” person being between 20 and 29 years old? (iv) an “old” person being over 70 years old? Q4. A study on the voting habits of married couples has shown that the probability that the husband votes on communal issues is 0.24, whereas the probability that the wife votes on such issues is 0.32 and the probability that. both vote is 0.12. (a) What is the probability that: (i) either the husband or the wife will vote? (ii) neither of them votes? (iii) the wife votes, knowing that the husband is going to vote? (b) If the wife has decided to vote, what is the probability of the husband not voting?Introduction to Basic Concepts in Probability 58 Q5. A poll taken among 50 employees ot an industrial firm on the question of changing the work week from five days (8 am - 5 pm) to four days (7 am - Gpm) yielded the following results. Favour change and are executive workers 2 Oppose change and are executive workers 1 Favour change and are sales persons 8 Oppose change and are sales persons 3 No opinion and are sales persons 2 Favour change snd are office workers 10 Oppose change and are office workers 3 No opinion and are office workers 2 Favour change and are plant workers 10 Oppose change and are plant workers No opinion and are plant workers 1 {a) Construct a contingency table. (b) One employee is selected at random from among the 50. (i) What is the probability that the employee is a plant worker and favours the change? (ii) What is the.probability that the employee will oppose the change given that he/she is a sales person? (iii) What is'the probability that the employee is either executive or a sales person and he/she expressed no opinion? (iv) Given that the employee is not a plant worker, what is the probability that he/she favours the change? (v) What is the probability that the employee either favours the change or is an office worker? (c) Are the events “office worker” and ‘plant worker” statistically independent? Why? {d) Are the events “office worker” and “favour change” statistically indepen- dent? Why? (@) Are the events “executive” and “plant worker” mutually exclusive? Why? (f) Are the events “executive” and “no opinion” mutually exclusive? Why?Introduction to Basic Concepts in Probability Q6. A town has both a morning and an evening newspaper. Of the families in the town, 50 percent buy the morning paper, 40 percent buy the evening paper, while 25 percent buy both papers. Define the events: Ay: Buys a morning paper Ay: Does not buy a morning paper By: Buys an evening paper By: Does not buy an evening paper (a) List all pairs of events from the above set that are mutually exclusive. (b) Find P(B2|Ai). (c) Find the probability that a family buys either one paper or the other but, not both, QT. A small poll of 200 voters revealed the following information concerning three candidates A, B and C of a certain party who were running for three offices: 28 in favour of both A and B 122 in favour of B or C but not A 98 in favour of A or B but not C 64 in favour of C but not A or B 42 in favour of B but not A or C 14 in favour of A and C but not B. What is the probability that a randomly selected voter was in favour of: (a) all three candidates? (b) A irrespective of B or C? (©) B irrespective of A or C? (a) C irrespective of A or BY (e) A and B but not 0? (£) Only one of the candidates? Q8. Ina government agency, 30% of the employees take public transportation to work, ‘Also 60% of the employees are female. It is assumed that the two characteristics are independent. (a) Draw a probability tree diagram. (b) Find the probability that an employee picked at random from this population will be: (i) female and takes public transportation to work. female and does not take public transportation to work. male and takes public transportation to work. (ji i (iv) male and does not take public transportation to workIntroduction to Basic Concepts in Probability 55 6.2. Worksheet 6: Solutions QL. Let H be the head and 7’ be the tail. P(H) = 3 and P(T) = ~The tree diagram is shown in Figure 6.1. Figure 6.1 The Probability Tree Diagram of Tossing a Coin Thrice ') + P(THT) + P(TTH) P(Getting exactly two tails) = P(HTT, ot U3a 1 ea a8, x3) + (553) + (5%5* 2 aT oe 7 i s z eo" 2 Zi 9 Q2. Let S; represent first shift, Sp represent second shift, Ss represent third shift and D represent defective itemsIntroduction to Basic Concepts in Probability P(S; or S2) P(Si) + P(S2) = 0440.35 = 0.75 3 a (b) ‘The probability tree diagram is shown in Figure 6.2. p00 D® 0.96 -—__ Figure 6.2 The Probability Tree Diagram of Defectives Produced on Each Shift (©) (i) The probability that it is defective is P(D) P(S: ND) + P(S2.D) + P(Ss3D) 0.4 x 0.01 +0.35 x 0.02 + 0.25 x 0.04 0.004 + 0.007 + 0.01 0.021 P(S3|D) P(S3ND) P(D) 0.25 x 0.04 0.021 0.01 0.021 10 a =. 0.476190476 = 0.4762Introduction to Basic Concep' Qs. in Probability at (ai) P(D Sy) = 0.01 x 0.4 = 0.004 (a) Total umber of people = Of =2+ 74... +12+442= 80 (20 + 18) P(Person is aged between 20 and 39) = 20418) (i) P(Person is at least GO years old) = (b) Let ¥ represent a, person classified as “young” (i) The probability of meeting a young person is _ 2ET+20+ 18) Pee oat 80 = 05875 (ii) The probability of meeting an old person is PY) = P(Y) a 130 33, 80 = dias (iii) Let the event W represent persons between 20 and 29 years. The prob- ability of a young person being between 20 and 29 years is Pway) PY) u PWIY) a 0.4255Introduction to Basic Concepts in Probability (iv) Let Z represent a person of over 70 years, PUZAYS) py) = = (ZI PI) a 2 = 0.06060606 = 0.0606 QA. Let A be the eveut that the uisbind votes and ler HF be the event that the wile votes, PUD) = 0.24. POV) = 0.82 and PUL) = 0.12 (a) (3) ‘The probability that either dhe husband or the wife votes is PUPGW) = PUT) + PUY) O21 #0232 — 0.12 bal naw (i) The probability that neither of then votes is purity = 1~PurUl) = 1-0. = 036 ii Pun) puviay) = Patan We) PUT} (b) P(HT AW) = 0.32 - 0.12 = 0.20 PU OW) iste al PUR) many 02 0.32 = 0.625 aIntroduction Concepts in Probability Q5. (a) ‘Type of worker Executive worker Sales person Office: worker 10 || Plant worker (hb). (i) Che probability that an employee is wee plant worker aud favours change (ii) Let A be the event thar He/she will oppose: the change and be the event that he/she is a sales person PANB) PB) PLAIBY = ir} = 0.23076923 = 0.2308 (iii) The probability that an employee is eit her an executive or a salesperson and that he/she expressed ino opinion is 2 = ok = O01 (iv) Let P represent the event that the cimployee is a plant worke represent the eveut that they favour change. PIE OP*) rey = oe) Sen 31 = 0.64516129 = 0.6452 (v) Let F be the event that they favour change and O be the event that they are an office worker P(F or O) = P(FUO) PUP) + PLO: Me ln 1 an 50 (ENO)Basic Concepts in Probability (c) No. they are actually mutually exelusive events (A) Lot O be the event office worker and F be that they favour change: PIO) = B = 3 = 03, P(F) = B= 6 and P(F NO) = Hf = 0.2. ‘Thus, PUO O) = 0.2 and P(O) x P(F) = 0.3 x 0.6 = 0.18. Since P(F0) # PIO) x PIF) 02 £ 03% 06 02 # 0:8 Phen. it follows that events O aud F are not independent, (o) Yes. they are categories of the same variable. (f) Yes. we do not have people who satisfy both categories. Q6. (a) (Ab. Ay) and (B). Be) (b) P(A) = 0.5, P(Az) = 0.5, P(B)) = 0.4, P(B2) = 0.6, P(AL 9 Bi) = and P(By 0 A;) = 0.25. Thus, the venn diagram is shown in Figure 6.3 ex | | 0.25 {o2s| 0.45 Figure 6.3 The Venn Diagram apa A) P(B2|Ai) ‘The probability is 0.5, eal aIntroduction to Basic Concepts in Probability 61 (c) The probability that a family buys either one paper or the other but not both is 0.25 + 0.15 = 0.40 Q7. hte who favour: Bonly are 42. C only are 64. B or C only but not A are 122. Thus, those who take B and C only are 122 - (42 + 64) = 16 A and C only but not B = 14 Both A and B are 28. Thus, those who take A only are 200 - (28 + 1 +16 + 64 + 42) = 200-164 = 36 A ot B but not C are 98, Thus, those who take A and B only are 98 - (36 + 42) = 98 - 78 = 20 Thus, those who take all three are 200 - (36 + 20+ 42 + 14 +16 + 64) = 200 -192 = 8 ‘Then the venn diagram is shown in Figure 6.4. r A Figure 6.4 Venn Diagram Showing Voters Preference for Candidates (a) The probability that a randomly selected voter was in favour of all three is ay = = 004.62 Introduction to Basic Concepts in Probability (b) The probability that a randomly selected voter was in favour of A irrespec- i "= S6i2048014 78 99 tive of B or C = S6x2048414 — 78 — 38 — 0.39. (c) The probability that a randomly selected voter was in favour of B irrespec- 204842. ane tive of A or C = 28es2416 B= 048. (a) The probability that a randomly selected voter was in favour of C irrespec- Lski16461 lo. SL tive of A or B= Hetieees — 12 _ SL 951 (c) ‘The probability that a randomly selected voter was in favour of A and B but not C= Bh = 4 = 0.1 (f) The proba. ty that a randomly selected voter was in favour of only one of vay BE 1g a the candidates is AB 07 QB. Let T represent a person who goes by public transport and F represent a fe ‘Thus, = Male, (a) ‘The probability tree diagram is shown in Figure 6.5. Figure 6.5 Probability Tree Showing Employees who Use Public TransportIntroduction to Basic Concepts in Probability 63 (b) (i) P(FNT) = P(F)x P(?) since events are independent = 06x03 0.18 ‘Thus, the probability that females take public transport to work is 0.18. (ii) P(FAT) = P(F) x P(T*) = 06x07 = 042 ‘Thus, the probability that females do not take public transport to work is 0.42, (iii) PFT) = P(F*)x P(T) = 04x03 = 0.12 ‘Thus, the probability that males take public transport to work is 0.12. (iv) P(FENT*) = P(F*)x P(T*) = 04x07 = 0.28 Thus, the probability that males do not take public transport to work is 0.28.