INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)

Published online 11 June 2014 in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.4078

Long-term changes in seasonal temperature extremes

over Saudi Arabia during 1981–2010
M. Nazrul Islam,a* Mansour Almazroui,a Ramzah Dambul,a P. D. Jonesa,b and A. O. Alamoudia
a
Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research / Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
b Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

ABSTRACT: Long-term changes in seasonal temperature extremes based on daily data across Saudi Arabia for the period
1981–2010 are analysed by assessing the trends for the four conventional seasons. Surface observations of daily maximum
and minimum temperatures from high-quality datasets at 27 stations are used as the input. The trend throughout each season
is then derived by employing Sen’s slope estimator to four extreme value indices, four relative indices and three mean value
indices. Warming trends for extreme value indices are observed for the majority of stations, particularly significant (at 95%
level) in spring and summer seasons, however, mixed increase/decrease trends are found for the cold temperature extremes
in autumn and winter seasons. Relative indices show significant warming trends for the majority of stations in all seasons;
however, strong warming (above 5 days decade−1 ) is witnessed in the spring, summer and autumn seasons. The rapid rise (fall)
of the number of warm (cool) days compared to warm (cool) nights is observed in the winter, summer and autumn (winter and
spring) seasons. Warming of cool/warm nights is insignificant for the majority of stations in winter. The national average of
mean value index diurnal temperature range shows an increasing trend for all seasons; however, its mixed increase/decrease
trends are observed for the majority of stations in summer and autumn seasons. Time series analysis reveals that irrespective of
seasons, warming is clearly visible in Saudi Arabia after 1997. Variations of warming for different regions across the country
are also noticed.

KEY WORDS temperature extremes; climate change; Saudi Arabia; seasonal indices
Received 18 December 2013; Revised 13 May 2014; Accepted 16 May 2014

1. Introduction which are very likely to be largely attributable to increas-

Since the last century, particularly in the last 50 years,
the observed rise in global and regional temperature
has fuelled widespread interest in studies on climate
change (Fernández-Montes and Rodrigo, 2011). In gen-
eral, the rise of air temperature all over the world has
been well-accepted and documented [e.g. Trenberth et al.
(2007) who reported that the surface mean temperature
has increased by 0.8 ∘ C since the late 19th century].
The updated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) concluded that
the global mean surface temperature has risen by 0.12
(0.08–0.14) ∘ C decade−1 since 1951 (1951–2012) (IPCC,
2013). There is a strong relationship between the rise
of air temperature and occurrence of weather extremes
(Alexander et al., 2006). Evidence of climate change is not
only found looking at changes of mean values, but also
through changes in the occurrence of weather extremes.
At the global scale, observed changes in the occurrences
of extreme temperatures are generally consistent with
increasing mean temperatures (Trenberth et al., 2007),
* Correspondence to: M. Nazrul Islam, Center of Excellence for Cli-
mate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz
University, PO Box 80234, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia. E-mail:
mnislam@kau.edu.sa
ing greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007). It is
observed that since 1950 the number of warm days and
nights has increased and the number of cold days and
nights has decreased (IPCC, 2013). However, different pat-
terns and intensities are found in different parts of the
world (Vincent et al., 2005; Klein Tank et al., 2006; Vin-
cent and Mekis, 2006).
In the Middle East, Zhang et al. (2005a) calculated
extreme temperature indices for the period 1950–2003
using daily data from 52 stations from 15 countries, but
only 7 stations are from the large country of Saudi Ara-
bia. In calculation of temperature extreme indices, seven
stations over Saudi Arabia are also used in the recent stud-
ies by Donat et al. (2013, 2014). In the Arabian Peninsula,
AlSarmi and Washington (2011) analysed temperature
data for the period 1980–2008 and revealed a clear signal
of climate change in the region. They used 21 stations over
the Peninsula, only 6 stations across Saudi Arabia, which
is clearly not representative of the largest country in the
region, covering about 80% of the Peninsula (Almazroui
et al., 2012b). Recently, Almazroui et al. (2013a) sum-
marized temperature extremes for 27 stations throughout
Saudi Arabia at annual timescales and AlSarmi and Wash-
ington (2014) analysed temperature extremes for 10 sta-
tions across the country. To date, however, there are only a
few analyses on the temperature extremes using daily data

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society

1580 M. NAZRUL ISLAM et al.
from a large number of surface observations across Saudi
Arabia at the annual scale (e.g. Almazroui et al., 2013a)
and extreme analysis at seasonal scale remains to be
discussed.
Weather extremes such as hot and cold events, as well
as heavy rainfall days have greater adverse impacts on the
economy, human society and natural environments than
mere changes in the climate averages in a region (Choi
et al., 2009). As a result, the Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) of the IPCC paid increased attention to the change
in climate extremes (IPCC, 2007). Any change in cli-
mate is the likely cause of extreme weather events such as
heavy rainfall, heat waves and cold surges. These weather
extremes are the cause of floods and prolonged drought
occurrences in a location (Kotwicki and Al Sulaimani,
2009). A single catastrophic extreme event can devastate
long-term accomplishment of human society within a short
period: for instance, the heavy rainfall events in Jeddah,
Saudi Arabia in 2009 and 2011 (Almazroui et al., 2012a)
and, the great flood in the Yangtze River basin of China
in 1998 (Huynen et al., 2001; Ye and Glantz, 2005). Simi-
larly, an extreme hot or cold temperature event can increase
human mortality, as well as energy utilization (Huynen
et al., 2001; UNEP, 2004). As an example, Saudi Ara-
bia has recently experienced extreme temperature events,
where 2010 is considered as the warmest year of the instru-
mental observational period in the country. The typical
example marking this extremely hot year is the national
record breaking 52 ∘ C that occurred in Jeddah on 22 June
2010 (Almazroui et al., 2012a).
There is little analysis conducted in Saudi Arabia
that has defined and characterized extreme events
based on the standard developed by the Expert Team
on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI,
http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/software.shtml, a joint
WMOCCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team), which
includes percentile, threshold, absolute and duration-based
indices (Almazroui et al., 2013a; Donat et al., 2013). Iden-
tification of adverse events, such as the extreme maximum
or minimum values for daily maximum and minimum
temperatures, is highly beneficial for application-oriented
sectors such as agriculture, water resources and power
generation of a country (Islam, 2009; Almazroui, 2012).
For example, when the lower bound of temperature goes
above room comfort (∼24 ∘ C), the demand naturally
requires more power supply, mainly for the air condi-
tioning (which has become widely used for both office
and domestic buildings in Saudi Arabia). Peak electricity
demand in Saudi Arabia has increased from 300 MW in
1975 to 44 GW in 2010 (SEC, 2010), but this is mainly
due to the development in infrastructure (e.g. increas-
ing number of air conditioning), however, the impact
of warming is not a negligible factor in the increase of
energy demand. Percentile-based indices, such as the
occurrence of warm/cold days and nights, are equally
important for vulnerability studies especially of those
related to health and tourism (Hajj/Umrah) sectors. For
Hajj every year, about 3–4 million pilgrims travel to
Makkah (21.43∘ N, 39.79∘ E) at the same time whereas for
© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society
Umrah about 4–6 million people travel to Makkah and
Madinah (24.54∘ N, 39.7∘ E) every year.
This article aims to analyse seasonal temperature indices
defined by ETCCDI using daily data from 27 stations
available across Saudi Arabia for the period 1981–2010.
The indices calculated by the widely used RClimDex soft-
ware (Zhang and Yang, 2004) are analysed as four stan-
dard seasonal values over the available longer timescale
to acknowledge the strong seasonality of climate in Saudi
Arabia as well as to utilize them in application-oriented
tasks. Their spatial patterns are also assessed for different
geographical subregions across the country which is infor-
mative in assessing vulnerability due to changes in climate.
2. Data and methods
Daily maximum and minimum temperatures collected by
the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME)
at 27 weather stations across Saudi Arabia (Table 1 and
Figure 1) are used to construct 11 extreme temperature
indices (Table 2, recommended by ETCCDI, for instance
see Alexander et al., 2006; Choi et al., 2009; Zhang et al.,
2011) for the period 1981–2010. Out of 27 stations, 7 of
them (station IDs 2, 13, 16, 20, 21, 24 and 27) are situated
in potentially urban-affected areas (within 500 m from the
edge of the city). During the study period, the 27 stations
used have not undergone any significant discontinuities
caused by artificial changes such as relocation or alteration
of measurement methods except for Jeddah (21.71∘ N,
39.18∘ E) which moved to a new airport in 1982. Because
1982 is very near to the beginning of the data series, so we
ignore this relocation for Jeddah station.
The selection of extreme indices is based on data avail-
ability and the nature of climate for Saudi Arabia. Fixed
threshold indices which are used in some studies (e.g.
Zhou and Ren, 2011) are excluded in this analysis, because
their values are either rare or unknown in Saudi Arabia’s
climate (e.g. frost days and ice days) or too common to
be considered extremes (e.g. summer days above 30 ∘ C).
The extreme value indices, i.e. the maximum of daily
maximum (TXx) and daily minimum (TNx) temperatures,
the minimum of daily maximum (TXn) and daily mini-
mum (TNn) temperatures are derived based on extremes of
daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The relative
indices such as warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p),
cool days (TX10p) and nights (TN10p) are derived based
on relative thresholds. In the calculation of relative indices,
the 90th (10th) percentile of the daily maximum (mini-
mum) temperature for the period 1981–2010 is used as
the upper (lower) threshold at individual stations (see Zhou
and Ren, 2011). If a daily maximum (minimum) temper-
ature exceeds the upper/lower threshold, then it is consid-
ered as a warm/cool day (night). In addition, the average
of the daily maximum (TXa), the average of the daily min-
imum (TNa) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are
also used. Except for 6 stations for which records only
started in 1985, the daily maximum and minimum tem-
peratures data are available from 1981 or earlier for the
Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)
 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OVER SAUDI ARABIA 1581

Table 1. Metadata of surface observation sites in Saudi Arabia.

ID Name WMO code Station type Latitude (∘ N) Longitude (∘ E) Elevation (m) Data used
1 Turaif 40356 Synoptic 31.68 38.73 852 1981–2010
2 Guriat 40360 Synoptic 31.40 37.28 504 1985–2010
3 Arar 40357 Synoptic 30.90 41.14 550 1981–2010
4 Al-Jouf 40361 Synoptic 29.78 40.10 670 1981–2010
5 Rafha 40362 Synoptic 29.62 43.49 445 1981–2010
6 Tabuk 40375 Synoptic 28.37 36.60 770 1981–2010
7 Al-Qaysumah 40373 Synoptic 28.33 46.12 360 1981–2010
8 Hail 40394 Synoptic 27.44 41.69 1000 1981–2010
9 Gassim 40405 Synoptic 26.30 43.77 648 1981–2010
10 Dhahran 40416 Synoptic 26.26 50.16 22 1981–2010
11 Wejh 40400 Synoptic 26.20 36.47 20 1981–2010
12 Al-Ahsa 40420 Synoptic 25.30 49.49 180 1985–2010
13 Riyadh New 40437 Synoptic 24.92 46.72 612 1985–2010
14 Riyadh Old 40438 Synoptic 24.71 46.73 610 1981–2010
15 Madina 40430 Synoptic 24.54 39.70 630 1981–2010
16 Yenbo 40439 Synoptic 24.14 38.06 8 1981–2010
17 Jeddah 41024 Synoptic 21.71 39.18 18 1981–2010
18 Taif 41036 Synoptic 21.48 40.55 1455 1981–2010
19 Makkah 41030 Synoptic 21.43 39.79 273 1985–2010
20 Wadi-Aldawasser 41061 Synoptic 20.30 45.12 617 1981–2010
21 Baha 41055 Synoptic 20.29 41.64 1655 1985–2010
22 Bisha 41084 Synoptic 19.99 42.61 1167 1981–2010
23 KhamisMushait 41114 Synoptic 18.29 42.80 2047 1981–2010
24 Abha 41112 Synoptic 18.23 42.66 2100 1981–2010
25 Najran 41128 Synoptic 17.61 44.41 1213 1981–2010
26 Sharurah 41136 Synoptic 17.47 47.12 727 1985–2010
27 Gizan 41140 Synoptic 16.90 42.58 4 1981–2010

Rub Al-Khali, the world’s largest continuous sand desert.

Figure 1. Topography (in km) of Saudi Arabia and its surroundings. The
surface observation sites across the country are shown with dots and the
numbers are the stations running from north to south. Site details are
given in Table 1.
other 21 stations. We additionally mention that these 21
stations data are complete from 1978, however, 1 (three)
of them extend back to 1952 (1956) but with many miss-
ing values. The analysis period is confined to 30 years
(1981–2010) due to the minimum time length for statis-
tical analysis as well as reducing missing data because
any analysis of extremes is sensitive to data quality and
quantity (Haylock et al., 2006). As shown in Figure 1,
observation sites are distributed in a relatively low-density
network across the country and there is no station over
The analysis employed RClimDex 1.0 software (Zhang
and Yang, 2004), the version that was updated on 18 June
2008. The calculation of extreme indices in this analysis is
similar to the procedures applied in Zhang et al. (2005b),
Haylock et al. (2006) and Donat et al. (2013).
The amount of missing observations only comprises
0.05% of the overall number of days (30 years times
365.25 days), which is acceptable for analysis of extremes.
Quality checks on the daily data are carried out using
the built-in tools in the RClimDex software, which iden-
tified potentially unrealistic climatic records and outliers,
if any. In the quality control (QC) procedure, the pos-
sible outliers in daily maximum and minimum temper-
ature are produced as a log file for each station. These
are daily values outside a user-defined threshold which is
the mean ± 5 × SD, in this analysis. Daily temperature val-
ues outside this threshold are checked and corrected on a
case-by-case basis with the help of metadata and with the
local expert climate knowledge, if required. In addition
to data quality control, a homogeneity test is performed
on monthly data for each station using another piece of
software, i.e. RClimDex-RHTest. The RHTest program is
based on a two-phase regression model with a linear trend
for the entire base series (Wang, 2003, 2008) capable of
identifying multiple segments between change points. In
this study, the latest version of homogeneity test software
RHTestV3 is employed as used in Donat et al. (2014).
Detailed discussion about RHTest software can be found

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)

1582 M. NAZRUL ISLAM et al.

Table 2. Extreme temperature indices used in this study for Saudi Arabia. TX and TN represent daily maximum and minimum
temperature, respectively.

SL Index Term Definition

1. TXa Average TX Monthly mean value of TX
2. TNa Average TN Monthly mean value of TN
3. DTR Diurnal temperature range Monthly mean value of difference between
TX and TN
4. TXx Maximum TX Monthly maximum value of TX
5. TNx Maximum TN Monthly maximum value of TN
6. TXn Minimum TX Monthly minimum value of TX
7. TNn Minimum TN Monthly minimum value of TN
8. TX90p Warm days Percentage of days when TX >90th
percentile
9. TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN >90th
percentile
10. TX10p Cool days Percentage of days when TX <10th
percentile
11. TN10p Cool nights Percentage of days when TN <10th
percentile

in the work of Wang (2003, 2008). In our analysis, maxi-
mum and minimum temperatures time series are tested for
homogeneity throughout the entire period of the data used
(1981–2010).
For each station, we use the updated version RHTestV3
(http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/software.shtml) and sig-
nificant (at 95% level) change points on a monthly basis
with and without reference series as shown in Table 3. The
station network is unevenly distributed in the study area,
therefore, the number of change points in a station series
varies with the selection of reference series, e.g. ID7 has 12
break points when ID5 is used as a reference series (data
not shown), however, it has only 3 break points when ID9
is used as a reference. Therefore, for the homogeneity test
of a particular station, time series data for the nearest sta-
tion is used as the reference. Noticeably there is no break
point common for all stations. For without reference, about
48% (22%) stations show a single (double) break point
for TX whereas 30% (11%) for TN which occurs mostly
during strong El Niño (1982), strong La Niña (1988), mod-
erate El Niño (1991) and moderate La Niña (1998) years.
Maximum change points for TX occur mostly during both
El Niño (1982, 1991) and La Niña (1998) years whereas
maximum change points for TN occur during a La Niña
(1988) year. Break points are also observed during normal
years (e.g. 1982, 2003). As none of the change points are
confirmed by station metadata, and most appear related to
natural climate variability (e.g. major El Niño and La Niña
events), we use the original time series in the calculation
of extreme indices.
At the final stage, temperature extremes indices are
calculated for individual stations using daily data for
1981–2010 and Sen’s slope estimator is used for trend
analyses of the indices time series. The statistical signifi-
cance of the trends is then assessed by the Mann–Kendall
test. In order to obtain probability density functions
(PDFs) of temperature anomalies across Saudi Arabia,
the normal distribution is used. In analysing the seasonal
indices, the four conventional seasons are used as the
basis, i.e. winter [December–February (DJF)], spring
[March–May (MAM)], summer [June–August (JJA)]
and autumn [September–November (SON)]. Maps are
drawn showing the trend magnitudes and their statistical
significance levels for each index at individual stations.
For easy reference, closed circles are used to represent
statistical significance (p < 0.05). The original unit (%
of days) for the percentile-based extreme temperature
indices is converted into days per season or year to make
the results more easily interpretable. Anomalies are calcu-
lated using the long-term average for the 26-year dataset
(1985–2010) as the base period. This procedure is applied
individually to all 27 stations. In the context of existing
literature on similar subject, the use of 26 years as a base
period is acceptable. Jones and Moberg (2003) have set
20 years as the minimum length of required base period to
derive appropriate anomaly values from a 30-year dataset.
Moreover, shorter averaging periods such as 10 years
often perform as adequately as 30-year averaging periods
for many climatic parameters (WMO, 2007).
3. Results
Prior to analysing the temperature indices in Saudi Ara-
bia, a national spatial mean temperature calculated as the
simple average of the actual daily values from each of
the available stations is discussed. To identify the changes
in temperature during the different seasons (Figure 2)
and over a long-term period, the time series of tempera-
ture anomalies obtained from the national spatial mean is
divided into two halves (first half: 1981–1995; and second
half: 1996–2010). The approach has been used in many
studies (for instance in Almazroui et al., 2012a, 2012b;
Franzke, 2013). There is a distinct change in the mean
and median between the two periods, as well as in the
different seasons. The increase in the median has been
0.98, 1.01, 1.20 and 0.80 ∘ C for the winter (Figure 2(a)),

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)

 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OVER SAUDI ARABIA 1583

Table 3. The details of significant change points in TX and TN for Saudi Arabia during 1981–2010. The change points are shown
by the year and month (e.g. 198809 means the change point is detected in September 1988).

ID Name RHTestV3 RHTestV3

without reference with reference
TX TN Date of change TX TN Date of change
point TX (TN) point TX (TN)
1 Turaif 0 1 (200911) 1 4 198809 (198508, 199710,
199811, 200504)
2 Guriat 0 0 – 1 0 198809
3 Arar 2 0 199804, 200902 4 4 198205, 198601, 199802,
200304 (199206, 199610,
200011, 200312)
4 Al-Jouf 1 1 200912 (200911) 4 4 198601, 199804, 200308,
200604 (198902, 199704,
199712, 200602)
5 Rafha 1 0 199804 3 2 198905, 199401, 200609
(200103, 200402)
6 Tabuk 1 0 198201 3 0 198112, 199412, 200008
7 Al-Qaysumah 0 0 – 3 4 199204, 199906, 200603
(198809, 199309, 200202,
200410)
8 Hail 1 0 199805 (198201) 3 0 197912, 198503, 198905
9 Gassim 2 1 198201, 199803 (198810) 1 5 199305 (198301, 198608,
198710, 200303, 200403)
10 Dhahran 2 0 198201, 199101 3 4 199112, 200603, 200911
(198709, 199904, 200108,
200607)
11 Wejh 1 1 199106 (200912) 3 1 198106, 199605, 200609
(199812)
12 Al-Ahsa 1 1 199801 (198810) 3 3 199205, 200006, 200611
(198703, 199408, 200109)
13 Riyadh New 1 0 199803 3 0 198905, 199401, 200609
14 Riyadh Old 1 2 199803 (198810, 200401) 2 1 198611, 199502 (199111)
15 Madina 1 0 198201 3 2 198106, 199607, 200701
(199410, 200012)
16 Yenbo 2 0 199106, 200412 3 1 198106, 199605, 200609
(199812)
17 Jeddah 1 198910 2 1 198111, 198905 (199412)
18 Taif 3 2 198201, 200008, 200405 2 3 198903, 199603 ( 199111,
(199512, 200205) 199512, 199709)
19 Makkah 2 2 199104, 200305 (198812, 2 1 199104, 200706 (199412)
199308)
20 Wadi-Aldawasser 0 0 – 0 1 (198511)
21 Baha 3 0 199504, 199803, 200710 3 2 198711, 199504, 199906
(199709, 199903)
22 Bisha 1 0 199803 3 3 199109, 199607, 200105
(199111, 199604, 200210)
23 KhamisMushait 1 1 199802 (198510) 1 4 198710 (198511, 198804,
199207, 200603)
24 Abha 2 199112, 199305 3 2 198509, 199302, 200708
(199002, 199705)
25 Najran 1 0 198108 1 0 200209
26 Sharurah 0 1 (199709) 4 0 199702, 199807, 200608,
201007
27 Gizan 3 1 198706, 199106, 200402 2 0 199302, 200708
(198810)

spring (Figure 2(b)), summer (Figure 2(c)) and autumn
(Figure 2(d)), respectively, for the second half compared
to the first half. The distributions of the two periods are
significantly (p < 0.05) different, however, the differences
in variance are not significant (p > 0.05). These results
indicate clear evidence of increasing temperatures in Saudi
Arabia and a small change in the median can greatly influ-
ence the frequency of extremes (Mearns et al., 1984). Cli-
mate change not only affects the magnitude of the mean
temperature, but it also causes extremes which are evident

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1584 M. NAZRUL ISLAM et al.

(a) 0.2 (b) 0.12

Winter Spring
1981–1995 0.1 1981–1995
0.15 1996–2010 1996–2010
0.08

PDF
PDF

0.1 0.06

0.04
0.05
0.02

0 0
–8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Tmean anomaly (°C) Tmean anomaly (°C)

(c) 0.4 (d) 0.1

Summer Autumn
0.35 1981–1995 1981–1995
1996–2010 0.08 1996–2010
0.3

0.25 0.06
PDF

PDF

0.2

0.15 0.04

0.1
0.02
0.05

0 0
–4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9
Tmean anomaly (°C) Tmean anomaly (°C)

Figure 2. Seasonal distribution of PDFs for the average of Saudi Arabian air temperature anomalies for the first half (1981–1995) and the second
half (1996–2010) of the analysis period. The mean air temperature anomaly for each season is averaged from 21 stations across Saudi Arabia which
has data available during 1981–2010. (a) Winter, (b) spring, (c) summer and (d) autumn.

in the upper or lower tail of the probability distribution
as documented in Meehl et al. (2000). In our analysis, the
shift of mean temperature to a higher level for all seasons
indicates the changes in the frequency of extremes in Saudi
Arabia and these are discussed next.
3.1. Extreme value indices
Spatial distributions for the trends of the seasonal maxi-
mum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) during
the four seasons are shown in Figure 3. All stations
show positive trends [significant (p < 0.05) at 63% of
the stations] in winter, with the exception of only one
south-western coastal station (ID 27) showing a negative
trend and only one western coastal station (ID 17) showing
no (0 ∘ C decade−1 ) trend. The winter season temperature
of Saudi Arabia (particularly the north-west areas) is influ-
enced by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
(Almazroui, 2012). Station 27 also shows a negative trend
in summer and autumn. A negative trend is also observed
for a north-western station (ID 2) in the spring and autumn
seasons. The increasing trend of TXx is significant for
52, 70 and 70% stations in the spring, summer and
autumn seasons, respectively. Overall, TXx has increased
over Saudi Arabia and a strong (above 1.5 ∘ C decade−1 )
increasing trend is observed for two stations (IDs 12
and 21) in winter and two stations (IDs 9 and 11) in the
autumn season. It is worth mentioning that increasing
temperature across Saudi Arabia during the winter, spring
and summer seasons is strongly related (correlation at
95% significant level) to the negative phase of the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Almazroui, 2012).
The maximum value of daily minimum temperature
(TNx) exhibits a similar behaviour to TXx in terms of
showing increasing trends for most of the stations; how-
ever, station ID 27 shows an increasing trend for all seasons
(Figure 4). Two stations (IDs 6 and 26) in winter show
insignificant decreasing trends. Seven stations (IDs 1, 2, 8,
11, 20, 21 and 23) in winter, three stations (IDs 17, 18 and
25) in spring, one station (ID 26) in summer and four sta-
tions (IDs 6, 18, 20 and 26) in autumn show no trends. Four
northern stations show strong increasing trends in summer.
As for the index TNx, there are fewer stations showing sig-
nificant trends compared to TXx, particularly in winter (i.e.
only 5 stations, about 19% show significant increases for
TNx compared to 63% for TXx). However, it is safe to
consider that the trend of TNx is generally increasing in

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)

 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OVER SAUDI ARABIA 1585

(a) (b) (a) (b)

(c) (d)
(c) (d)

Figure 4. Trends of the seasonal maximum value of daily minimum

Figure 3. Trends of the seasonal maximum value of daily maximum
temperature (∘ C decade−1 ) for (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM),
(c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons across Saudi Arabia
calculated for the period 1981–2010. The open solid (dashed) circle
represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed circle represents trend
significance at the p < 0.05 level.
temperature (∘ C decade−1 ) for (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM),
(c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons across Saudi Arabia
calculated for the period 1981–2010. The open solid (dashed) circle
represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed circle represents trend
significance at the p < 0.05 level.

(a) (b)
Saudi Arabia because only 7% of stations show a decreas-
ing trend, and none of these trends are statistically signifi-
cant. This lower number of stations with decreasing trends
is consistent with AlSarmi and Washington (2011) who
found decreasing trends for a few stations in the Arabian
Peninsula for the period 1980–2008 for the case of average
monthly maximum and minimum temperatures.
The spatial distributions for minimum values of daily
maximum (TXn) and daily minimum (TNn) temperatures (c) (d)

in different seasons are shown in Figures 5 and 6, respec-

tively. Of the four seasons, at most stations both TXn and
TNn show increasing trends more strongly in spring com-
pared to the other seasons. Note that the extreme indices
(e.g. TXx and TNx) have weaknesses in the transition sea-
sons (spring and autumn), as TXx normally only captures
information in May (for high temperatures in spring) and
September (for high temperatures in autumn) whereas TNx
captures information in March (for low temperatures in
spring) and November (for low temperatures in autumn).
Figure 5. Trends of the seasonal minimum value of daily maximum
For TXn and TNn, in winter and autumn, both increas- temperature (∘ C decade−1 ) for (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM),
ing and decreasing trends are observed, and these trends (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons across Saudi Arabia
are insignificant for many stations. The increasing trend in calculated for the period 1981–2010. The open solid (dashed) circle
TXn is significant for most of the stations in spring. The represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed circle represents trend
significance at the p < 0.05 level.
cold extremes are mainly located in the northern (central
towards the Arabian Gulf and south-western Highlands)
areas during the winter (autumn) season. except at ID 27 (the south-western coastal station, see
Figure 1). In this season, significant (p < 0.05) increas-
3.2. Relative indices ing trends are observed for most of the south-western sta-
Figure 7 shows the spatial distribution of the decadal tions and those near to the Arabian Gulf (Figure 7(a)).
trends of warm days (TX90p) during the four seasons in Warm days have stronger trends during spring compared
Saudi Arabia for the period 1981–2010. Positive trends to winter, and 85% of the stations show significant increas-
are observed all over the country in the winter season, ing trends (Figure 7(b)). In terms of spatial features, the

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)

1586 M. NAZRUL ISLAM et al.
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 6. Trends of the seasonal minimum value of daily minimum
temperature (∘ C decade−1 ) for (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM),
(c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons across Saudi Arabia
calculated for the period 1981–2010. The open solid (dashed) circle
represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed circle represents trend
significance at the p < 0.05 level.
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 7. Trends of warm days (TX90p in days decade−1 ) for (a) winter
(DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON)
seasons across Saudi Arabia calculated for the period 1981–2010. The
open solid (dashed) circle represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed
circle represents trend significance at the p < 0.05 level.
south-western coastal station (ID 27) once again shows a
negative trend, which has also been observed in all seasons.
During the summer season, the number of warm days
increased for all stations except ID 27 and ID 11. In
this season, the increase rates are significant for 78% of
stations. Positive trends across the country are observed
during the autumn season, and trends are significant for
70% of stations. In general, the number of warm days
© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 8. Trends of warm nights (TN90p in days decade−1 ) for (a) winter
(DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON)
seasons across Saudi Arabia calculated for the period 1981–2010. The
open solid (dashed) circle represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed
circle represents trend significance at the p < 0.05 level.
in Saudi Arabia has been increasing in all seasons and a
strong (above 5 days decade−1 ) increase rate is observed
at many stations, particularly in the spring, summer and
autumn seasons.
Decadal trends of warm nights (TN90p) and their spatial
distribution during the four seasons are shown in Figure 8.
The number of warm nights increased across Saudi Ara-
bia during the winter season, with 41% of the stations
showing significant (p < 0.05) trends (Figure 8(a)). In this
season, only one station (ID 6) shows an insignificant neg-
ative trend. In spring, however, the trend of warm nights is
stronger compared to the winter season with 67% of the
stations showing significantly increasing trends. Notice-
ably, warm nights increase for all stations during the sum-
mer, and 78% of the 27 stations exhibit significant trends.
In autumn, 63% of the stations show significant increas-
ing trends, with an exception of only one station (ID
26) showing an insignificant decreasing trend. Overall,
warm nights increase in Saudi Arabia and strong (above
5 days decade−1 ) positive increase trends are found for
48% of stations in summer season.
Irrespective of seasons, the numbers of cool days
(TX10p) decrease all over Saudi Arabia as shown in
Figure 9. The decrease rates are significant at 67, 81, 74
and 63% of the stations for the winter, spring, summer and
autumn seasons, respectively. For TX10p, strong (above
5 days decade−1 ) decrease rates are observed in all sea-
sons, and are significant for 56% of stations in the spring
season. Figure 10 shows the spatial distribution of cool
nights (TN10p) across Saudi Arabia for the four seasons.
In all seasons, the trends for cool nights are decreasing for
all stations except for an insignificant increase for station
ID 26 in winter. These decreasing trends are significant at
11, 74, 93 and 81% of the 27 stations during the winter,
Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)
 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OVER SAUDI ARABIA 1587

(a) (b) (a) (b)

(c) (d) (c) (d)

Figure 9. Trends of cool days (TX10p in days decade−1 ) for (a) winter
(DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON)
seasons across Saudi Arabia calculated for the period 1981–2010. The
open solid (dashed) circle represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed
circle represents trend significance at the p < 0.05 level. The colour scale
is reversed compared to Figure 7.
Figure 10. Trends of cool nights (TN10p in days decade−1 ) for (a) winter
(DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON)
seasons across Saudi Arabia calculated for the period 1981–2010. The
open solid (dashed) circle represents insignificant (no) trend. The closed
circle represents trend significance at the p < 0.05 level. The colour scale
is reversed compared to Figure 8.

spring, summer and autumn seasons, respectively. In the

(a) (b)
winter season, about 85% of stations show insignificant
decreasing trends. The decrease rate is strong (above
5 days decade−1 ) for 37% of stations in the summer sea-
son. This finding implies that the numbers of cool days are
reducing rapidly over the country, but cool nights in win-
ter appear to show weaker trends than other seasons, and
other indices, which might be considered as a noteworthy
signal of climate change along with strong increasing
trends of other indices at the local scale. The weaker trend (c) (d)

of cool nights in winter relates to the occurrence of cold

surges at the local scale even though the overall climate
is warming.

3.3. Mean value indices

The analysis of another temperature index, the diurnal tem-
perature range (DTR, the difference between daily max-
imum and minimum temperature averaged to a monthly
value), is displayed in Figure 11. DTR shows increasing
trends for all stations in winter except for decreasing trends
at six stations (Figure 11(a)). In spring, most stations show
increasing trends except three (one) stations showing
insignificant (significant) decreasing trends (Figure 11(b)).
In this season, increasing trends for 59% of stations are
statistically significant. Mixtures of increasing/decreasing
trends are observed in both the summer and autumn
seasons. The increasing trend of DTR in Saudi Arabia is
consistent with the results of AlSarmi and Washington
(2014) for the Arabian Peninsula. The seasonal analysis
using DTR shows that it increases at the rate of 0.35, 0.55,
0.07 and 0.12 ∘ C decade−1 in the winter, spring, summer
and autumn seasons, respectively (Table 4). The annual
trend is 0.27 ∘ C decade−1 . Table 4 also shows that the rate
Figure 11. Trends of DTR (∘ C decade−1 ) for (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring
(MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons across Saudi
Arabia calculated for the period 1981–2010. The open circle represents
insignificant trend. The closed circle represents trend significance at the
p < 0.05 level.
of increase for the mean of maximum temperature (TXa) is
almost double that of the observed increase in the mean of
minimum temperature (TNa) during the winter and spring
seasons. The rate of increase of TXa is also higher than
the rate of increase of TNa in the summer and spring sea-
sons. Overall, the increase rate of TXa (0.86 ∘ C decade−1 )
is higher compared to TNa (0.58 ∘ C decade−1 ) at the
annual scale.

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1588 M. NAZRUL ISLAM et al.

Table 4. Linear trends of absolute temperatures and temperature extremes in different seasons and the year over Saudi Arabia. For
absolute temperatures, trends for individual station are obtained and averaged from all 27 stations for the period 1981–2010.

DJF MAM JJA SON Annual Unit

TXa 0.80* 1.09* 0.84* 0.71* 0.86* ∘ C decade−1
TNa 0.44* 0.53* 0.77* 0.58* 0.58*
Tmean 0.63* 0.82* 0.81* 0.65* 0.73*
DTR 0.35* 0.55* 0.07 0.12 0.27*
TXx 0.97* 0.70* 0.91* 0.88* 0.71* ∘ C decade−1
TNx 0.37* 1.07* 0.59* 0.72* 1.03*
TXn 0.38 0.60* 1.29* 0.04 0.36
TNn 0.09 0.66* 0.82* 0.27 0.13
TX90p 2.93* 4.23* 5.03* 4.08* 15.34* Days decade−1
TN90P 2.66* 4.35* 2.88* 3.20* 11.93*
TX10P −3.56* −4.68* −4.99* −3.97* −18.71*
TN10p −2.68* −5.54* −3.67* −4.38* −16.51*
Extreme indices for individual stations are obtained and then a simple arithmetic mean is used for averaging before obtaining trends. The star
represents significance level (p < 0.05).

4. Discussion most regions show insignificant trends in winter for both

Using updated daily station temperature data up to 2010
in a recent study, Donat et al. (2013) showed signifi-
cant warming in all seasons at the global scale. They
used only seven stations from Saudi Arabia and displayed
gridded temperature extreme indices for the entire globe.
They discussed seasonal temperature extremes in a broader
regional aspect such as Northern Hemisphere, Southern
Hemisphere, North America, South America, Europe and
Asia. They also noticed that the strength of a particular
index varies from region to region. To understand in detail
the temperature extremes at local scales in Saudi Arabia,
this study analysed daily data for 27 stations and found
warming trends for most of the stations. However, some
indices show a mixture of warming/cooling trends in dif-
ferent seasons and regions.
In our analysis, the indices TXx, TNx, TXn, TNn,
TX90p and TN90p generally show warming trends for
all regions in all seasons, with very few exceptions show-
ing cooling trends in a specific region and season, e.g.
TXn at the more eastern stations (east of 46∘ E) during the
autumn. Overall, the spring and summer seasons show sig-
nificant warming trends; and regionally, the south-western
Highlands and both the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf areas
show warming trends in all seasons (except for TXn
in autumn). These results are in line with AlSarmi and
Washington (2014) who analysed data from ten stations
over Saudi Arabia for the period 1970–2008. The central
part of Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Gulf regions show
a somewhat different behaviour in different seasons; par-
ticularly, TXn is significantly warming in spring whereas
it is cooling in autumn. In the north-western region,
the trends of TNx are strong (above 1.5 ∘ C decade−1 )
to moderate (between ±1 and ±1.5 ∘ C decade−1 ) and
significant during the summer season; but they are
weak (between ±0.5 and ±1 ∘ C decade−1 ) in autumn
and weaker still (between ±0.1 and ±0.5 ∘ C decade−1 )
in winter. The south-western Highlands usually show
only warming trends for TXx and TNx; whereas TXn
and TNn show both warming/cooling trends. Note that
TXn and TNn.
During the autumn season, the eastern (north-eastern)
Saudi Arabia is under cooling trends for TXn (TNn). We
speculate that in this season, the Indian monsoon is in
its withdrawal phase and this influences the reduction of
minimum values of maximum temperature (TXn) at the
eastern side (Arabian Gulf region) but still the Red Sea
areas show warmth (Figure 5). In this season, cold air
also enters from the Siberian region to the north-eastern
areas of Saudi Arabia that causes the reduction of mini-
mum values of minimum temperature (TNn), but still the
southern areas show warmth (Figure 6). These are climato-
logical speculations; however, detailed study with proper
data analysis of large-scale forcings which control the cli-
mate of the Arabian Peninsula, particularly over Saudi
Arabia (covers 80% of the Peninsula area), is required to
understand these opposite characteristics of east–west and
north–south phenomena.
For both TX10p and TN10p, warming trends are mostly
significant in all regions for spring, summer and autumn,
but only in the south-western highlands and Red Sea areas
during the winter. Zhang et al. (2005a) reported for these
indices zero trends for the period 1950–2003 in Saudi
Arabia, but mostly insignificant warming trends for the
period 1970–2003. A majority of the stations exhibited
significant increases for TX90p, particularly in spring and
summer. For this index, strong trends are found in the
central and south-western highland areas. Zhang et al.
(2005a) also reported warming trends in winter and both
warming and cooling trends in spring, summer and autumn
for TN90p for the period 1970–2003. In our case, the data
period and the number of stations used are different from
Zhang et al. (2005a) and this may be the cause of warming
trends in summer.
In this study, the national average DTR shows an
increase which differs from the decreasing trend of DTR
evident in many other regions of the world such as
Asia-Pacific Network countries (Choi et al., 2009), in
China (Zhou and Ren, 2011), in the Middle East (Zhang
et al., 2005a). In Choi et al. (2009), 143 weather stations

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)

 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OVER SAUDI ARABIA
(a)
(c)
Figure 12. Time series of national average seasonal indices (in ∘ C) for (a) TXx, (b) TNx, (c) TXn and (d) TNn, as anomalies relative to 1985–2010.
from ten Asia-Pacific network countries are used and
they concluded that the mixed increase/decrease trends
are observed at various stations, however, decrease trends
are observed for majority (∼75%) of the stations. For
China, Zhou and Ren (2011) found significant decreases
of country-averaged DTR and concluded that decrease
trends of DTR mainly occurred prior to the mid-1980s
and become insignificant after that time. In Zhang et al.
(2005a), the DTR for the Middle East region was found
to show a decrease trend when a regional average was
taken from 52 stations of which only 7 from Saudi Arabia.
They stated that stronger trends are found for minimum
temperatures (TNx and TNn) compared to the maximum
temperatures (TXx and TXn) which caused negative
trends of DTR in regional averages for the Middle East.
Importantly, they showed that most of the locations of
the significant trend for minimum temperatures are sited
toward the north of the Middle East and all stations in
Saudi Arabia (our studied area) have insignificant increase
trends. In this analysis, mixed increase/decrease trends of
DTR are found at different station locations (Figure 11),
however, the national average DTR is an increasing trend
for Saudi Arabia (Table 4). The mixed increase/decrease
trends over Saudi Arabia is also seen in AlSarmi and
Washington (2014) for the analysis period 1986–2008
compared to the period 1970–2008 which was almost just
increases only. Table 4 shows that the mean minimum
temperature (TNa) increased at a slower rate than the mean
© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society
1589
(b)
(d)
maximum temperature (TXa) in all seasons. Therefore,
the difference between the two temperatures has become
larger over the years, which has resulted in greater values
for DTR. Overall, the strongest DTR trends are observed
in the highlands, the central area towards the Arabian
Gulf and southern regions, during the winter and spring
seasons.
Extremes in national mean values are a variable of inter-
est. For an overview of understanding of national mean
values of the temperature extremes from the seasonal
analysis, the selected indices are summarized in Table 4. It
is shown that TNx (1.07 ∘ C decade−1 ) has increased faster
than TXx (0.70 ∘ C decade−1 ) during the spring season. In
summer, TNx/TXx warms faster/slower in the second half
period (0.97/0.48 ∘ C decade−1 ) compared to the first half
(0.16/0.09 ∘ C decade−1 ) as shown in Figure 12. For these
two indices, the summer temperatures strongly influenced
the pattern of annual values (Table 4). The interannual
variations of TXn and TNn tend to follow the patterns
of the winter season (Figure 12). In addition to the main
driver of increased energy demand and urbanization,
the rapid increase in the warmest minimum temperature
(TNx) in Saudi Arabia could pose a serious issue in terms
of power supply and consumption. It is also found that
TXx increases faster than TNx in the winter, summer
and autumn seasons. Therefore, significant increases of
minimum (maximum) temperature extremes in spring
(winter, summer and autumn) seasons due to climate
Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)
1590
(a)
(c)
Figure 13. Time series of the national average seasonal and annual frequency (in days year−1 ) for the (a) TX90p, (b) TN90p, (c) TX10p and (d)
TN10p, as anomalies relative to 1985–2010. In this figure, the average value for TX90p, TN90p, TX10p and TN10p is 40.1, 38.5, 32.3 and 32.7,
respectively, shown as zero.
change should affect this power sector. The impact of
temperature warming/cooling is not limited to power
generation. The seasonal changes of temperature extremes
could also pose threats to other socioeconomic sectors,
such as agriculture, public health, water management and
tourism (especially the Hajj/Umrah activities).
From Table 4, it is evident that the annual frequency
of warm days increases faster than warm nights. This
is influenced strongly by the events of 1998, a hot year
in which there were 77 warm days but only 52 warm
nights (Figure 13(a) and (b)). The number of warm
days and warm nights was 93 and 94, respectively,
in the very hot year record of 2010. Note that 1998
(2010) was associated with a moderate (strong) La Niña
year but warmth was observed in Saudi Arabia. The
rapid rise of the number of warm days compared to
warm nights is also observed in the winter, summer
and autumn seasons. At annual scales, the warm nights
are increasing at a rate of about 11.93 days decade−1
which is about twice the increase rate of the global aver-
age 4.81 days decade−1 (Alexander et al., 2006). Warm
days are increasing at a rate of 15.34 days decade−1 . It
is also found that the annual frequency of cool days
decreases faster (−18.71 days decade−1 ) than cool nights
(−16.51 days decade−1 ) (Figure 13(c) and (d)). Linear
regression shows that there has been a faster decrease
(17.5 days decade−1 ) of the number of cool days during
the first half period (1981–1995) compared to a slower
decrease rate (5.2 days decade−1 ) during the second half
© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society
M. NAZRUL ISLAM et al.
(b)
(d)
period (1996–2010), both are statistically insignificant,
whereas cool nights decrease at almost the same rate
(14.6 and 16.2 days decade−1 for the first and second half,
respectively) in both periods, but second half is statistically
significant (Figure 13(a) and (b)). The slower decrease
of the number of cool days in the later period is mostly
affected by the cold winter and autumn of 2008 (a weak
La Niña year). Table 4 shows that the decreasing rate for
cool days is 18.71 days decade−1 at the annual scale. The
decrease rate of cool nights is about 16.51 days decade−1
which is more than four times higher than the global
average of 3.85 days decade−1 (Alexander et al., 2006).
This is evident in the large (5500 Wm−2 ) incoming solar
radiation each day on horizontal surface over Saudi
Arabia compared to the global average (1367 W m−2 )
(Mohandes and Rehman, 2010). The faster decrease rate
of the number of cool days compared to cool nights is
also observed in the winter and spring seasons. These
results are consistent with the global trends as found
by Alexander et al. (2006) analysing data for the period
1951–2003. Table 4 also shows that irrespective of the
seasons, the increase (decrease) rate of warm (cool) days
and nights are statistically significant in Saudi Arabia and
time sequences of these indices anomalies revealed that
warming is visible after 1997. Recently, Hasanean et al.
(2013) also reported the abrupt change of temperature
over Saudi Arabia in 1997. They examined the cause of
this abrupt change using three reanalysis datasets for the
period 1949–2010 with the Mann–Kendall rank statistic
Int. J. Climatol. 35: 1579–1592 (2015)
 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OVER SAUDI ARABIA
and concluded that the decrease of the Siberian High Index
is strongly correlated to the abrupt change of temperature
in Saudi Arabia in 1997.
In addition, the non-climatic drivers to the increase
or decrease of temperature indices in Saudi Arabia are
not yet fully understood. These non-climatic contributing
factors could be either the effect of urbanization (Zhou
and Ren, 2011) or the possible influence of aerosols in
industrial regions (Stone and Weaver, 2003; Zhou et al.,
2009). Examination of the urbanization effect for the sta-
tions located in the urban-affected areas across Saudi Ara-
bia by Almazroui et al. (2013b) showed that the rise in
air temperature is not likely due to urbanization changes
resulting from population increases. Therefore, examin-
ing the effects of some other factors such as the changes
of cloud cover and atmospheric/soil moisture (Dai et al.,
1999; Easterling et al., 2000; Duan and Wu, 2006) on the
increase/decrease trends of temperature extremes in Saudi
Arabia might be interesting to discuss in a separate study,
with the support of adequate statistical evidence. To empir-
ically establish the links between temperature extremes
in Saudi Arabia and natural variability/forcings such as
greenhouse gases and aerosols as well as volcanic erup-
tions (including the use of climate model data), further
analysis is required.
5. Conclusions
This paper analyses the temperature extremes in Saudi
Arabia under three dimensions: temporal (1981–2010),
spatial (the geography of Saudi Arabia) and season (winter,
spring, summer and autumn). Owing to the lack of detailed
seasonal analysis on extremes in this region (AlSarmi
and Washington, 2011), this third dimension is chosen as
the fundamental basis of this assessment. Therefore, the
temporal trends (of temperature extremes) and their spatial
distributions are evaluated for those four different seasons.
In order to assess the seasonal changes based on tem-
poral scales, the dataset is divided into two halves: first
half 1981–1995 and second half 1996–2010. It is found
that the median of air temperature has increased by about
1 ∘ C in all seasons for the second half compared to the
first. Details of the seasonal characteristics reveal that
the frequencies of cold extremes have decreased and hot
extremes have increased during all seasons. In spring, sum-
mer and autumn, cold extremes show clear significant
decreases that represent the warming across the country.
These seasons also show significant warming trends for hot
extremes. In Saudi Arabia, the increase rate of minimum
temperature is slower than the maximum temperature.
This has caused DTR to experience an increasing trend of
0.27 ∘ C decade−1 for the annual composite of all stations.
Geographically, the strongest DTR trends are observed in
the highlands, central areas to Arabian Gulf and south-
ern regions during the spring season. The teleconnec-
tion between temperature extremes in Saudi Arabia and
large-scale forcing factors might be an interesting research
area to pursue. Another added-value for further research
© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society
1591
is incorporating the data from climate model to establish
future forecast, which is useful for application-oriented
tasks.
Acknowledgements
This paper is funded by King Abdulaziz University (KAU),
under grant No. 2-155-1433/HiCi. The Presidency of
Meteorology and Environment in Saudi Arabia is acknowl-
edged for providing the observational datasets. The authors
express their thanks to the three reviewers and the editor
for their comments and suggestions about improving the
manuscript.
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