Introduction

A flood is an unusually high stage in a

river (the level at which the river
overflows its banks and inundates the
adjoining area).

Flood causes loss and/or damages in

terms of loss of life, property and
economic losses.

It also spoils image of a countries

infrastructure facility.
Definition of floods
 Flood disaster

Source: Central Water Commission, Ministry of

Water Resources, Government of India.
Floods in Mumbai and USA
x-Quantity of normal flow at one space may be a flood at
another space depending upon the infrastructure
New York and its suburbs:
In a developed country
Infrastructure ????
Population: 18,976,457 (189 lakh)
Area= 1,41,205 km2 (54,520 sq. miles)
Elevation = average of 0 to 305 m above msl
Population density = 155/km2 (409/sq.mile)

Mumbai and its suburbs:

In a developing country
Infrastructure is fast growing
Population: approximatly15 million (150 lakh)
Area= 437.71 km2 (169 sq. miles)
Elevation = average of 8 m above msl
Population density = 34,300/km2 (88,750/sq.mile)
 Public Transport New York
Subway system
Mumbai: completely disrupted,
Trains on the lifeline of most lines shut
the metropolis, down. Commuters
stopped for a while tries to crowd into
and resumed running, buses
Bus services largely
unaffected.
 Power
Mumbai: New York
Power firms cutoff supply The storm drenched the
after flooding to prevent region, cutting off
risk of electrocution and electricity to thousands of
resumed after receding homes.
of flooding
Flooding areas
Mumbai: New York
After 6 hrs continuous After 6 hrs of continuous rain
rain (more than 250 (63.5 mm)
mm), Lower Parel,
The deluge overwhelmed
Worli, dadar, and
storm sewer, flooded
Bhandup were under
major thorough fares.
water (all are low lying
areas)
Destruction
Mumbai: New York
The overflowing Mithi
Roofs turned off,
river submerged 600
shunties, 1500 people over 30 families
were evacuated forced to leave
home, cars
turned turtle
Death
Mumbai: New York
A young man One women killed
was in her car in a
electrocuted flooded
in the eastern underpass
suburbs, a
wall collapsed
and killed
another.
Introduction (contd…)

Millions of rupees are spent in flood

forecast, flood control and flood
mitigation.
Urban area
Urban population
Rural areas
Agricultural lands
Insurance companies
Never pay money if your infrastructure is in a
flood plain/zone
Flood Damage
Flood damaged paddy field
Average annual loss due to Floods in
India (only official records)
Sl.No. Items Loss
1. Area affected 7.351 million hectare
2. Population affected 40.967 million
3. Human lives lost 1793 number
4. Cattle lost 85599 number
5. Houses damaged 1452904 number
6. Houses damaged 370.607crore
7. Crop area damaged 3.725 million hectare
8. Crop damaged 1095.132 crore
9. Public Utilities damaged 1186.456 crore
10. Total losses 2706.243 crore

Source: Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India

Introduction (contd…)

Estimation of Flood peak is the most

important parameter considered in the
design of infrastructures and water
resources facilities

Peak flow magnitude and time to peak in

hydrographs

In the design, peak flow frequency

should be taken as 1 in 100 based on
the importance of the infrastructure.
Flood estimation
Flood estimation methods
1. Empirical method
2. Rational method
3. Unit-hydrograph technique
4. Flood-frequency studies

Flood Estimation method - Selection criteria

Desired objective
Available data
Importance of the project
Other factors-technical assumptions
The rational formula is only applicable to small-size (< 50km²)
catchments and the unit-hydrograph method is normally restricted
to moderate-size catchments with areas less than 5000 km².
Empirical method

These are regional bases formulae based

on the statistical correlation and important
catchment properties.

These are generally based on flood peak-

area correlation
Qp= f(A)
where Qp is maximum flood discharge.
A is the area of the catchment
Some of the Empirical formula used
in India (even today)?
Dickens formula (1865)

3 Where

Q p  CD A
Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
4 A = catchment area (km2)
CD = Dickens constant with value
between 6 to 30

Area CD

North-Indian plains 6
North-Indian Hilly 11-14
Central India 14-28
Coastal Andhra and Orissa 22-28
Contd…

Ryves Formula (1884)

Where
2
QP  C R A
Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
3 A = catchment area (km2)
CR = Ryves coefficient

Originally developed for the Tamil Nadu region, but presently used in
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh also.

CR = 6.8 for areas within 80 km from the coast

CR = 8.5 for areas 80-160 km from the coast

CR = 10.2 for hilly areas

Contd…

Inglis formula (1930)

124 A Where
QP  Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)

A  10.4
A = catchment area (km2)

Originally developed for the catchments in Western Ghats in

Maharashtra

At present this is used all over in Maharashtra with a modification in

the numerator (the value of 124)
Contd…
Fuller’s formula (1914) for USA basins
QTp  C f A 0.8
1  0.8 log T 
Where
QTp = maximum 24- h flood with a frequency of T years in m3/s
A = catchment area (km2)
Cf = a constant with values between 0.18 to 1.88
Contd…
Envelop curves

These are the curves which shows the relationship

between drainage area and maximum flood discharge

The observed flood (estimated) data is plotted on log-

log paper as flood peak Vs catchment area.

In the region of same climatological characteristics,

envelop curve can be used.

Catchment should not have significant difference in

meteorological and topographical characteristics.

It is useful in getting quick rough estimation.

Kanwarsain and Karpov (1967) presented enveloping

curves for Indian rivers.
Observe the X axis and Y axis scale
Contd…

Baird and McIllwraith (1951)

3025 A Where
QP  Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
278  A0.78 A = catchment area (km2)

Based on the maximum recorded floods throughout the world.

Rational Method
If a rainfall of uniform intensity occurs for very
long duration
The hydrograph may have time of concentration
The discharge becomes constant after time of
concentration
Hence in this case the time of concentration is very
important
Rational Method (contd..)
Basic equation
Qp = C A i for t ≥ tc
where
t = time of concentration
C = coefficient of runoff (runoff/rainfall)
A = area of the catchment
i = intensity of rainfall

Time of concentration (tc)

Time taken for a drop of water from the farthest
part of the catchment to reach the outlet.
Empirical equations are available to estimate it.
Contd….

US practice
n
 LL ca 
tc  t p  C t  
 S 

where tc is the time of concentration in hours

Kirpich equation (1940)

0.77 0.385
t c  0.01947 L S
where
tc = time of concentration in minutes
L = maximum length of travel of water
S = slope of the catchment
Use the tc to select the rainfall intensity
Rainfall intensity
Rainfall intensity corresponding to a duration tC and the
desired probability of exceedence is found from rainfall
frequency duration relationship for the given area.
(remember the IDF equation)
x
KT
i
tc  a  n

Runoff coefficient ( C )
It represents the integrated effect of the catchment losses.
It depends upon the nature of the surface, surface slope
and rainfall intensity.
Weighted equivalent average is taken, if the whole area can
be divided into sub areas of different C.
Sample values of C used all over the world

n
 Ci Ai
i 1
Ce 
A
Example
Q. An urban catchment has an area of 0.85 km2. the
slope of the catchment is 0.006 and the maximum
length of travel of water is 950 m. the maximum
depth of rainfall with a 25 –year return period is
below :
Duration (min) 5 10 20 30 40 60
Depth of 17 26 40 50 57 62
rainfall

If a culvert for drainage at the outlet of this area is

to be designed for a return period of 25 year,
estimate the required peak flow rate, by assuming
coefficient as 0.3.
Example (contd…)
First estimate the time of concentration
(use Kirpich formula)
t c  0.01947 L0.77 S 0.385
 0.01947 (950) 0.77 (0.006) 0.385
= 27.4 min
Estimate maximum depth of rainfall in 27.4 min (by linear
interpolation)
= 47.4 mm
Estimate the rainfall intensity = depth/time of concentration
= 47.4/27.4 = 1.73 mm/min = 103.8 mm/h
The maximum runoff = CiA
= (0.3x103.8x0.85)xuse appropriate unit conversion
= 7.35 m3/s
Unit Hydrograph Method

We have seen much more about UH

techniques

In this method use maximum rainfall

or PMP values to predict the flood
hydrograph and peak flow discharges.
Flood frequency studies
Hydrologic process such as floods are exceedingly complex
natural event.

It is difficult to model analytically.

Estimation of flood peak is very complex problem.

The annual data of maximum flood when arrange in

decreasing order of magnitude and the probability P of each
event being equaled to or exceeded is calculated by the
plotting position formula (remember this method ?????)
m
P where
N 1 m = order number of the event
N = total number of events in the data
Recurrence interval T
T= 1/P
Flood frequency studies (cont.)
Probability of occurrence of an event r times in n
successive years is
Pr ,n  n C r P r q n  r where q = 1-P

General equation of hydrologic frequency analysis:

xt  x  K Z
Remember this equation??????
where
xT = value of variate X of a random hydrologic series with a return
 period T
x = mean of variate
σ = standard deviation of variate
K = frequency factor which depends upon the return period T
and the assumed probability distribution.
Contd…

Commonly used frequency distribution

function for prediction of extreme
flood values:

Gumble’s Extreme value distribution

Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Log normal distribution
Gumble’s method (1941)
This is most widely used probability distribution
function for extreme values in hydrologic and
meteorology studies.
Gumble defined flood as the largest of the 365
daily flows.
The value of variate X with return period T is

x t  x  K Z
The above equations are the basic Gumble’s equation and are
applicable to an infinite sample size.
Gumble’s equation
Value of variate X, with

recurrence interval T
xT  x  K n 1
where σn-1 = standard deviation of the sample of
size N   2

 x  x 
  
N 1

K = frequency factor expressed as


yT  y n
K
Sn
in which yn and Sn are reduced mean and
standard deviation and are functions of sample
size n and yT = reduced variate, a function of T
and is given by  T 
y T    ln . ln
 T  1 
Values of reduced mean and standard deviation
REDUCED MEAN yn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUES DISTRIBUTION
N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.507 0.51 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.522
20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.532 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.538 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.541 0.5418 0.5424 0.543
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.553 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.554 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.555 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.557 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.558 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.56

REDUCED STANDARD DEVIATION Sn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION

N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.148 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.159
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.177 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.189 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.193
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.198 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.202 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.206
100 1.2065
?? The mean and standard deviation of flood
time series of 27 years is 4263 m3/s and 1433
m3/s. Estimate magnitude of the flood with a
return period of 10, 50, 100 and 200 years.

From Table reduced mean = 0.5332 and reduced std.dev =1.1004

yT = -{ln[ln(T/T-1)]}
Y10 = - ln ln (10/9) = 2.25037
K = (yT-yn)/Sn = (2.25037-0.5332)/1.1004 = 1.56
XT = 4263+1.56*1433 = 6499 m3/s

Find for X50, X100 and X200

Solve the remaining magnitude in the board?????????

Example
Q. Flood frequency computations for a river by using Gumble’s
method, yielded the following results:

Return period Peak flood

T (years) (m3/s)
50 40,809
100 46,300

Estimate the flood magnitude in the river with the return

period of 500 years.

Solve in the board?????????

Confidence limit
Value of variate determined by Gumble’s method
can have errors due to limited sample data.

The confidence interval indicates the limits about

the calculated value between which the true value
can be said to lie with a specific probability based
on sampling error only.
Confidence limit (Contd...)
For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval on the variate xT is
bounded by values x1 and x2

x 1  xT  f ( c ) S e
2
where f( c ) =function of the confidence probability c, determined by using
the table of normal variate.

c in percent 50 68 80 90 95 99
f (c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.58
Se = probable error
 n 1
b b  1  1.3K  1.1K 2
n
σn-1 = standard deviation of the sample

K= frequency factor
n= sample size
Log Pearson Type III distribution
In this the variate is first transformed into logarithmic form (base
)10 and then data is analyzed.
If X is the variate of random hydrologic series then
z = log x

zT  z  K Z  Z ,( n 1)
where
T = recurrence interval
Kz = a frequency factor = f (Cs , T)
Cs = coefficient of skew of the variate Z
σz = standard deviation of the Z variate sample
n = sample size

n ( z  z ) 3
Cs 
(n  1)(n  2)( z ) 3
xT = antilog (zT)
 Kz = F(Cs, T) FOR USE IN LOG-PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION
Recurrence interval T in years
Coefficient of skew,Cs
2 10 25 50 100 200 1000
3 -0.396 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051 4.97 7.25
2.5 -0.36 1.25 2.262 3.048 3.845 4.652 6.6
2.2 -0.33 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 4.444 6.2
2 -0.307 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605 4.298 5.91
1.8 -0.282 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 4.147 5.66
1.6 -0.254 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 3.99 5.39
1.4 -0.225 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271 3.828 5.11
1.2 -0.195 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 3.661 4.82
1 -0.164 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 3.489 4.54
0.9 -0.148 1.339 2.018 2.498 2.957 3.401 4.395
0.8 -0.132 1.336 1.998 2.453 2.891 3.312 4.25
0.7 -0.116 1.33 1.967 2.407 2.824 3.223 4.105
0.6 -0.099 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 3.132 3.96
0.5 -0.083 1.323 1.91 2.311 2.686 3.041 3.815
0.4 -0.066 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 2.949 3.67
0.3 -0.05 1.309 1.849 2.211 2.544 2.856 3.525
0.2 -0.033 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472 2.763 3.38
0.1 -0.017 1.292 1.785 2.107 2.4 2.67 3.235
0 0 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326 2.576 3.09
-0.1 0.017 1.27 1.716 2 2.252 2.482 2.95
-0.2 0.033 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 2.388 2.81
-0.3 0.05 1.245 1.643 1.89 2.104 2.294 2.675
-0.4 0.066 1.231 1.606 1.834 2.029 2.201 2.54
-0.5 0.083 1.216 1.567 1.777 1.955 2.108 2.4
-0.6 0.099 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88 2.016 2.275
-0.7 0.116 1.183 1.488 1.663 1.806 1.926 2.15
-0.8 0.132 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733 1.837 2.035
-0.9 0.148 1.147 1.407 1.549 1.66 1.749 1.91
-1 0.164 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588 1.664 1.88
-1.4 0.225 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318 1.351 1.465
-1.8 0.282 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087 1.097 1.13
-2.2 0.33 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905 0.907 0.91
-3 0.396 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667 0.667 0.668
 ??? The following data is pertaining to a river.
Estimate the flood peaks with 50, 100, 200, 500, and
1000 years return periods. Use Gumbels extreme
value distribution and Log Pearson Type III
distribution. Also plot the various discharges for
confidence limit of 80 to 99 % in Gumbels method.

Year 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968

Flood m3/s 3210 4000 1250 3300 2480 1780

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

1860 4130 3110 2320 2480 3405 1820

Limitation of frequency studies
It depends upon the length of data.

Minimum no of data required, depends upon the

variability of data and also on physical and
climatological characteristics of the catchment.
At least 30 years of data is required

Smaller length record are also used when it is

unavoidable but It can not be adopted for less than 10
years of data.

Frequency studies are reliable if climates are uniform

over the years. (Global Climate changes???)
Then use only short record of data
Design floods
In the design of hydraulic structure, it is not
practical to provide safety against maximum
possible flood.

Economic consideration should be taken care of.

Small structure (culvert and storm drainage) can

be designed for less severe floods.

Storage structures requires greater attention to the

magnitude of flood.
Some Definitions
Design flood
Flood adopted for the design
Spillways design flood
Design flood used for designing the spillway

Standard project flood (SPF)

The flood that would result from a severe
combination of meteorological and hydrological
factors.

Probable maximum flood (PMF)

The extreme flood that is physically possible in the
region as a result of severe most combination.
SPF = 40 to 60% PMF
Guidelines for selecting design
floods (CWC, India)
Structure
Spillways for major and
medium storage projects
(S>60 Mm3)
Minor dams, weirs, barrages
(S<60 Mm3)
Pick up weirs ??
Aqueducts
Project with inadequate data
Recommended Design Flood
1. PMF determined by the UH
2. Possible flood frequency
with T=1000 years
1. SPF determined by UH
2. Flood with T=100 years
Flood with T=100 to 50 years
T=50 years
Empirical formulae
Risk, Reliability and Safety factor

Risk (R) : The probability of occurrence of an

event (x ≥ xT) at least once over the period of n
successive years is called the risk.

R =1- (probability of non-occurrence of the event x ≥ xT in n years


R  1  (1  P ) n where P= probability P (x ≥ xT) = 1/T
n T=return period
 1
 1  1  
 T
Reliability (Re): The remaining nof the risk
 1 
Re  1  R  1  
 T
Risk and Reliability are governed by the economic
and policy considerations
Safety factor
Hydrologic uncertainties are considered in risk and
reliability.

For other uncertainties like structural,

constructional, operational and environmental and
non technological consideration economic,
sociological and political, factor of safety should be
introduced.

Safety factor =
actual value of the parameter adopted in the design of the project
value of parameter obtained from hydrological consideration only

The difference between actual and adopted is

called safety margin.
Solve?
? A bridge has an expected life of 25 year and is
designed for a flood magnitude of return period
100 years.
(a) What is the risk of this hydrologic design.
(b) If a 10% risk is acceptable, what return period
will have to be adopted.
n 25
 1  1 
R  1  1    1  1    0.222
 T  100 
Hence the inbuilt risk in this design is 22.2 %

25
 1
0.10  1  1  
 T
T  238  240 years
Self Study
? Log-normal distribution of flood frequency
studies

? Partial Duration Series

? Regional Flood frequency analysis

? Understand the cause and effects of flood

in your area? (hostel, Mumbai,
Maharashtra, India)

? Solve all the problem given in the class

Current research in this area
1. Suitable method for flood estimation, flood
forecast, flood warning

2. Integrated flood mitigation program

3. Measures to reduce urban flooding

a. Design of storm water drainage systems
b. Design of road side drainage network

4. Estimation flood magnitude for minimum risk

5. Flood frequency factors estimation using AI

6. Modification to rational formula and Estimation

of runoff coefficient

7. Conservation of flood waters

A review on Distributions
Most commonly used distributions in Hydrology and
Water Resources Engineering

Normal distribution
Log-normal distribution
Binomial distribution
Geometric distribution
Poisson distribution
Exponential distribution
Gamma distribution
Extreme value distribution
Pearson Type III distribution (3 parameter
gamma distribution)
Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Extreme Value Type-I Distribution
Consider a series of N observations of a random
variable
Where, N is quite large

Let the series is divided into n sub-samples of size

m, such that
N = nm

Each sample contains a largest and smallest value

Commonly referred to as extremes corresponding,

respectively, to floods and drought
-y
Density function F(x)=e-e

Median
Mode

Mean

Theoretical distribution of largest values

 Gumbel’s Method
Gumbel (1958) showed that the n largest values of sub-
samples asymptotically follow an extreme value (EV) type I
distribution, with PDF and CDF
{ ( x )e ( x ) }
f ( x)   e   x  
or     ,   0
 y e y
f ( x) e

 e  ( x   )
F ( x)  e
or
e  y
F ( x)  e   y  

Where, α (function of variance) and β (function of mode) are parameter,

y = (x – β) α; =1.2825/x =x-0.45005x
 Gumbel’s Method (Contd…)

According to this theory of extreme events,

Probability of occurrence of an event equal to or
larger than a value x0 is:

P X  x0   1 e e y

Substituting the values of β,and α the value of y is

1.2825( x  x)
y  0.577 ….1
x
Gumbel’s Method (Contd…)

Or the value of y can be expressed as

y = -ln [-ln F(y)]

In practice ‘y’ is the value of ‘x’ for a given

probability of exceedence and can be expresses as
yp = -ln [-ln (1-P)]

Since T=1/P, the value of ‘y’ associated with return

period T is
 T  ….2
yT   ln ln 
 T 1 
Gumbel’s Method (Contd…)

Or

 T 
yT   0.834 2.303loglog 
 T 1 
Thus equation 1 can be equated to equation 2 with
return periods

xT  x  K n 1

yT  0.577
K
1.2825
Gumbel’s Method (Contd…)
Gumbel was the first to employ the theory of extreme
value for flood frequency analysis.
Frequently called as Gumebl’s extreme value distribution
Gumbel’s distribution
Double negative exponential distribution

Most widely used distributions for frequency analysis

of floods, maximum rainfall, maximum wind speed,
and other meteorological parameters

The mean and variance of the distribution are:

EX        /   =Euler’s constant = 0.5772

Var  X    2   /  2 6  1.645 /  2
Gumbel’s Method (Contd…)
Gumbel showed that ‘y’ is a function of sample size.
When n , y 0.577

The standard deviation of y is also a function of sample size

When n , Sy 1.2825

Chow (1951)
Showed this is a log-normal distribution with constant skewness
The coefficient of skewness is approximately =1.14

Using method of moments the parameters of Gumbel’s is

found to be:
=1.283/x =x-0.45x
Values of reduced mean and standard deviation
REDUCED MEAN yn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUES DISTRIBUTION
N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.507 0.51 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.522
20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.532 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.538 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.541 0.5418 0.5424 0.543
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.553 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.554 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.555 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.557 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.558 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.56

REDUCED STANDARD DEVIATION Sn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION

N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.148 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.159
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.177 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.189 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.193
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.198 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.202 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.206
100 1.2065
?? Prove that the mean annual flood
used in hydrology will have a return
period of 2.33 years.