A Novel Hybrid Approach for Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using

TVF-EMD-ELM Strategy
A. Rabehi 1, M. Guermoui2, and K. Reski2
1
(Presenting author underlined) Djelfa University, Djelfa,17000, Algeria
2
Applied Research Unit in Renewable Energies URAER, Renewable Energy Development
Center CDER, Ghardaia 47133, Algeria

This paper discusses the efficient implementation of a new hybrid approach to forecasting
short-term PV power production for four different PV plants in Algeria. The developed
model incorporates a time-varying filter-empirical mode decomposition (TVF-EMD) and an
extreme learning machine (ELM) as an essence regression. The TVF-EMD technique is used
to deal with the fluctuation of PV power data by splitting it into a series of more stable and
constant subseries. The specified set of features (intrinsic mode functions (IMFs)) is utilized
for training and improving our forecasting extreme learning machine model. The adjusted
ELM model is used to evaluate prediction efficiency. The suggested TVF-EMD-ELM model
is assessed and verified in various Algerian locations with varying climate conditions. In all
examined regions, the TVF-EMD-ELM model generates less than 4% error in terms of
normalized root mean square error (nRMSE).