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ABSTRACT Transformer insulation paper is a key indicator for transformer remaining operational life.
Paper decomposition is evaluated using the degree of polymerization (DP) which calls for samples of
insulation paper from operating transformers. Since collecting such paper samples is extremely difficult,
other indicators have been used to indirectly reveal the DP value of insulation paper. This includes dissolved
gases in transformer oil such as carbon oxides and hydrocarbon gases, furan compounds, methanol, ethanol,
and moisture along with some oil characteristics such as interfacial tension. However, for the same oil
sample, these individual parameters lead to different DP values. This is attributed to the lack of accuracy
of the established mathematical and artificial intelligence models correlating DP with each of the above
mentioned individual parameters. This paper presents a self-learning method to estimate the DP value of
transformer insulation paper based on multiple transformer oil aging parameters. The proposed method
comprises data processing, fuzzy c-means and linear regression. Results reveal that estimating the DP value
based on multiple aging parameters is more accurate than estimating it using one single parameter as per
the current practice. The proposed method not only helps to understand the correlation between multiple oil
aging parameters and the DP value of paper insulation, but also promotes the establishment of more accurate
life assessment models for power transformers based on these oil aging parameters.
INDEX TERMS Degree of polymerization, oil aging parameters, paper insulation, power transformers.
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VOLUME 7, 2019 157471
S. Li et al.: New Technique to Estimate the DP of Insulation Paper Using Multiple Aging Parameters of Transformer Oil
thermally controlled oven for 240 days. During this period, TABLE 3. Quantity and size of solid and liquid materials placed in the
thermal aging chamber.
the temperature within the oven was maintained at 90◦ C and
aged oil-paper samples were extracted every 24 days to mea-
sure the above-mentioned aging parameters. This process was
repeated under other oven temperatures; 110◦ C and 130◦ C.
Thus, after the three thermal aging experiments, a total
of 30 aged samples were obtained.
All tests on aged oil-paper samples were conducted in
accordance to the standards listed in Table 2. The paper DP
measurement was conducted following the IEC 60450 in
which the specific viscosity of cellulose solution is mea-
sured to assess the DP value with the help of Mark 500 hours for palm oil samples. It was also repeated at a
Houwink equations [16]. DGA was conducted following temperature of 180 ◦ C for 20, 50, 100 hours for mineral oil
the IEC 60567 standards using gas chromatography [17]. samples and 50, 100, 200 hours for palm oil samples. Hence
Interfacial tension of oil was measured following the ISO nine aged samples for each oil type were tested and therefore,
6295-1983 guides [18]. 2-Fal in oil was determined following 2 datasets consisting of 9 individuals with 8 attributes and
IEC 61198 standards using high performance liquid chro- 1 label were obtained.
matography [19]. The moisture measurement was conducted The correlations of the paper DP value and the eight indi-
following IEC 60814 guides using Karl Fisher titration [20]. vidual aging parameters for the above thermal aging exper-
Since specific international standard for measurement of iments including the investigated three oil types are shown
methanol and ethanol in oil has not been set yet, test proce- in Figure 2. As can be seen in these plots, each aging param-
dure is conducted by following the method in using headspace eter exhibits inconsistent mathematical correlation with the
gas chromatography mass spectroscopy [21]. paper DP value due to the different types of oil and paper
as well as the thermal aging experimental conditions. Results
TABLE 2. Tests for aged samples with related standards. show that some oil aging parameters such as interfacial ten-
sion and 2-Fal compound comprise similar correlation with
the DP value for different thermal aging experimental results. data vector xi∗ equals to 0, with a standard deviation equals
However substantial difference on the range of DP value to 1.
can be observed among different thermal aging experimental xi − E (xi )
results. This validates the fact that a fixed equation correlating xi∗ = √ (1)
D (xi )
one oil aging parameter with the paper DP value is not very
accurate which poses the demand for a more flexible and where xi∗ is the normalized vector data of ith attribute,
accurate method to reveal the DP correlation with multiple E(xi ) represents the mathematical expectation value of data
aging parameters. vector xi and D(xi ) represents the variance of data xi .
Similar to the training dataset performance shown in Figure 5, TABLE 5. Evaluation indicators of the proposed method and other
the heat map of R2 of the FCM-LR model using the testing equations for mineral oil-2 samples.
TABLE 7. Detailed information and DP values of training and testing datasets of the 30 aged OIP (KI50X) samples calculated by the proposed method and
other equations.
Detailed DP values and more information of training and palm oil) are used to assess this adaptive feature. The per-
testing sets are listed in Table 7 in the Appendix. The table formance of the proposed FCM-LR model is compared with
shows that the proposed method in this paper is more accurate the performance of the principal component analysis linear
than the current methods used to estimate the paper DP value regression (PCA-LR) proposed in [2]. Results of this compar-
as evidenced from the least percentage error it results in for ison are listed in Tables 5 and 6 and are plotted in Figure 8.
all training and testing data sets. Evaluation indicators listed in Tables 5 and 6 attest the high
accuracy of the proposed method in estimating the DP value
based on multiple aging parameters when compared with the
D. GENERALIZATION PERFORMANCE OF THE current methods.
PROPOSED METHOD Figure 8 shows the DP value predicted using PCA-LR and
The main feature of FCM-LR is the self-learning nature that FCM-LR models for the 9 investigated samples of the two
facilitates its application for different thermal aging condi- types of oil. As can been seen from Figure 8, the FCM-LR
tions and oil-paper types. The aging experimental results model has a better performance than the PCA-LR in estimat-
obtained using the other two oil samples (mineral oil-2 and ing the DP values for various samples with a high degree of
[10] R. Gilbert, J. Jalbert, S. Duchesne, P. TÃľtreault, B. Morin, and Y. Denos, AHMED ABU-SIADA (M’07–SM’12) received
‘‘Kinetics of the production of chain-end groups and methanol from the B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees from Ain Shams
the depolymerization of cellulose during the ageing of paper/oil sys- University, Egypt, in 1998 and the Ph.D. degree
tems. Part 2: Thermally-upgraded insulating papers,’’ Cellulose, vol. 17, from Curtin University, Australia, in 2004, all in
pp. 253–269, Apr. 2009. electrical engineering. He is currently an Associate
[11] S. Y. Matharage, Q. Liu, and Z. D. Wang, ‘‘Aging assessment of kraft paper Professor and Lead of the Electrical and Elec-
insulation through methanol in oil measurement,’’ IEEE Trans. Dielectr. tronic Engineering Discipline, Curtin University.
Electr. Insul., vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 1589–1596, Jun. 2016.
His research interests include power system stabil-
[12] L. E. Lundgaard, W. Hansen, D. Linhjell, and T. J. Painter, ‘‘Aging of
ity, condition monitoring, power electronics, and
oil-impregnated paper in power transformers,’’ IEEE Trans. Power Del.,
vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 230–239, Jan. 2004. power quality. He has published over 230-research
[13] N. A. Baka, A. Abu-Siada, S. Islam, and M. F. El-Naggar, ‘‘A new article, book and book chapters in these research areas. He is the Editor-in-
technique to measure interfacial tension of transformer oil using UV- Chief of the International Journal Electrical and Electronic Engineering,
Vis spectroscopy,’’ IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul., vol. 22, no. 2, regular reviewer for various IEEE Transactions and a Vice-Chair of the IEEE
pp. 1275–1282, Apr. 2015. Computation Intelligence Society, WA Chapter.
[14] N. A. Bakar, A. Abu-Siada, and S. Islam, ‘‘A review on chemical diag-
nosis techniques for transformer paper insulation degradation,’’ in Proc.
Australas. Univ. Power Eng. Conf., Hobart, TAS, Australia, 2013, pp. 1–6.
[15] N. A. Bakar, A. Abu-Siada, and S. Islam, ‘‘A review of dissolved gas
analysis measurement and interpretation techniques,’’ IEEE Elect. Insul. LIUQING YANG was born in Gansu, China,
Mag., vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 39–49, May/Jun. 2014. in 1986. She received the B.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees
[16] Measurement of the Average Viscometric Degree of Polymerization in chemistry from Lanzhou University, in 2008 and
of New and Aged Cellulosic Electrically Insulating Materials, Stan- 2013, respectively. Since December 2017, she has
dard IEC 60450:2004, 2004. been an Associate Professor with the School of
[17] Oil-Filled Electrical Equipment—Sampling of Gases and Analysis of Free
Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University.
and Dissolved Gases—Guidance, Standard IEC 60567:2011, 2011.
Her research interests include energy storage,
[18] Petroleum Products—Mineral Oils—Determination of Interfacial Tension
of Oil Against Water-Ring Method, Standard ISO 6295:1983, 1983. functional polyimide, and functional polymeric
[19] Mineral Insulating Oils—Methods for the Determination of 2-Furfural and composites.
Related Compounds, Standard IEC 61198, 1993.
[20] Insulating Liquids—Oil-Impregnated Paper and Pressboard—
Determination of Water by Automatic Coulometric Karl Fischer Titration,
Standard IEC 60814, 1997.
[21] J. Jalbert, S. Duchesne, E. Rodriguez-Celis, P. Tétreault, and P. Collin,
‘‘Robust and sensitive analysis of methanol and ethanol from cellulose SHENGTAO LI (M’96–SM’11) received the
degradation in mineral oils,’’ J. Chromatogr. A, vol. 1256, pp. 240–245, Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from Xi’an
Sep. 2012. Jiaotong University (XJTU), China, in 1990.
[22] J. C. Bezdek, W. Full, and R. Ehrlich, ‘‘FCM: The fuzzy c-means clustering He was a Lecturer, an Associate Professor, and a
algorithm,’’ Comput. Geosci., vol. 10, nos. 2–3, pp. 191–203, 1984. Professor with XJTU, in 1990, 1993, and 1998,
respectively. He was a Research Fellow with
Waseda University, Japan, in 1996, and was also
a Senior Visiting Scholar with the University of
Southampton, U.K., in 2001. From 1993 to 2003,
he was a Deputy Director of the State Key Labora-
tory of Electrical Insulating and Power Equipment (SKLEIPE), XJTU. Since
SHIJUN LI was born in Shandong, China, 2003, he has been an Executive Deputy Director of SKLEIPE. His research
in 1992. He received the B.Sc. degree from Xi’an interests include dielectrics and their application, insulating materials, and
Jiaotong University (XJTU), China, in 2015, electrical insulation. He was awarded a Distinguished Young Scholar of
the General Engineer degree from Ecole Centrale China by the National Science Foundation, in 2006. He gave Liu Ziyu
de Lyon, ECLyon, France, in 2016. He is cur- Memorial Lecture on the 11th International Conference on the Properties and
rently pursuing the Ph.D. degree in domain of Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), in 2015. He was the Chair of
aging condition assessment of transformer with the 6th International Conference on Conditional Monitoring and Diagnosis
XJTU. He was with the Laboratory of TorreSupra, (CMD), in 2016, and the IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL
CEA Cadarache as a Researcher for three months INSULATION Vol. 25, No. 4; August 2018 1575 1st International Conference on
in 2015 in the domain of superconducting in Electrical Materials and Power Equipment (ICEMPE), in 2017. He is serving
Tokamak. on the Editorial Board of IEEE ACCESS.