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Table of Contents.............................................................................................................. 0 Table of Content..................................................................................................................1 Background & Methodology ..........................................................................................2 Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................3 1.0 Awareness & Support toward Transit Project................................................. 4 2.0 Views on Transit Project Facts..............................................................................5
Exhibit 3: Do you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or disagree with the following statements: [RANDOMIZE] (n=814) ................................................................................................. 5
Exhibit 5: For each of the following, please tell me which, in your view, is more of an important priority for the Ontario government: [RANDOMIZE] (n=814) ............................
Appendix A .............................................................................
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Table of Contents
Background & Methodology ..........................................................................................2 Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................3
1.0 Awareness & Support toward Transit Project................................................. 4 2.0 Views on Transit Project Issues ............................................................................5 3.0 Proposed Project Versus Other Priorities .........................................................7 4.0 Support Upon Learning About the Project ..................................................... 8
Appendix A.......................................................................................................................... 9
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Executive Summary
Nanos findings suggest that the more Ontarians learn about the proposed border transit project, the greater the likelihood they will oppose it. Comparatively greater proportions of Ontarians disagreed with the border transit project being started in light of the transit traffic drop, the financing approach taken for the construction of the border transit bridge and the lack of an official approval from the State of Michigan. Finally, for almost all Ontarians, the border transit project was not seen as more of a priority compared to construction or improvement of schools, hospitals and existing roads. To follow is a short summary of key findings: Almost two thirds (63.7%) of all Ontarians, including those who were aware of the project prior to the survey, said they opposed or somewhat opposed the project after learning about traffic levels, estimated costs and the financial configuration. Prior to learning of the configuration Ontarians who had learned of the proposed project were marginally more likely to support (45.4%) than oppose (37.9%) the proposed project. Opposition increased with greater knowledge of the project parameters. A majority of all Ontarians surveyed believed it made little sense to build the border transit bridge given the lack of approval by Michigan (66.5% agreed or somewhat agreed with this statement). A comparatively larger proportion disagreed with the government moving forward with the project while border transit traffic had dropped by half over the past decade (59.7% disagreed or somewhat disagreed with the government moving forward). Two in three Ontarians disagreed with the financial approach to building the border transit bridge (67.7% disagreed or somewhat disagreed with the approach taken). For almost all Ontarians, construction or improvement of Ontario hospitals (92.7%), schools (89.9%) and existing roads (88.0%) were each viewed as more of an important priority for the Ontario government compared to the construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan.
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Heard 49%
About half (48.8%) of all Ontarians said they had heard of the transit project prior to the survey. Unsurprisingly, respondents living in Southwest Ontario (66.2%) were comparatively more likely to have heard of the transit project compared to respondents from other Ontario regions.
Exhibit 2: Do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose this proposed project? [Only asked to respondents aware of the project] (n=397)
Somewhat oppose 7%
Oppose 31%
Among those who had heard of the transit project prior to the survey (397 Ontarians), nearly half (45.4%) supported or somewhat supported the project, while nearly four in ten (37.9%) opposed it. Of note, Southwest Ontario residents were comparatively more likely to support or somewhat support (61.6% versus average of 45.4%).
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
It makes little sense for the province of Ontario to build the $1.4 billion road to connect Windsor to a bridge that has not been approved by the State of Michigan.
52%
14%
7%
19%
7%
Even though there are already three crossings between Ontario and Michigan and cross-border traffic has dropped by almost half over the past ten years, the province of Ontario should pay $1.4 billion to build a new road that would connect ON to MI
20%
12%
11%
49%
9%
Agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Disagree
Unsure
Upon learning that the bridge connecting Windsor and Michigan had not been approved by the State of Michigan, about two thirds (66.5%) of Ontarians agreed or somewhat agreed that the project made little sense. Upon learning about the border transit traffic drop over the past decade, nearly six in ten Ontarians (59.7%) disagreed or somewhat disagreed with the province paying $1.4 billion to build the new road. One notable demographic difference was gender: indeed, female respondents (65.1%) were more likely to disagree or somewhat disagree than males (54.0%).
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Exhibit 4: The Government of Canada and the State of Michigan are considering building a new bridge between Detroit and Windsor that would cost $2 billion. Because the State of Michigan is under financial pressure, the Government of Canada would pay for its $1 billion half share of the bridge costs and then lend the State of Michigan an additional $550 million in Canadian taxpayers dollars to help with the American portion of the bridge. Do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose this proposed approach to financing the bridge construction? (n=814)
Oppose 56%
Support 15%
Unsure 6%
When learning about the configuration of the border transit bridges financing scheme, nearly seven in ten Ontarians (67.7%) opposed or somewhat opposed the approach. In terms of demographics, female respondents were comparatively more likely to oppose the approach (75.9% versus 59.3% for males). Conversely, compared to supporters of other parties, Liberal supporters were less likely to oppose the approach to financing the new bridge (58.3% versus 70.0% for PC supporters and 71.9% for NDP supporters).
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
The construction or improvement of Ontario's hospitals OR the construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan?
93%
4%3%
The construction or improvement of Ontario's schools OR the construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan? The construction or improvement of Ontario's existing roads OR the construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan?
90%
6% 4%
88%
8% 4%
Unsure
When comparing other construction project priorities with the new border transit project, Ontarians made it clear that the latter should not be more of a priority for the government. More than nine in ten Ontarians (92.7%) said the construction or improvement of Ontarios hospitals had to be more of a priority, and another nine in ten felt the same way for Ontario schools (89.9%) and existing roads respectively (88.0%).
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Oppose 51%
Support 16%
Unsure 7%
Liberal 34%
PC 40%
PC 43%
Looking at the voting intentions of decided Ontarian voters, there was no significant change among Ontarians upon learning about the details of the Liberals road project.
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Appendix A
Statistical Tables
Ontario Border Transit Study CTC September 2011 Nanos Research Final Report Project 2011-207
Region
Responses Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage 814 29.7 32.5 17.4 1.3 .1 19.0 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 31.1 32.4 28.8 24.0 29.0 33.7 30.0 29.4 31.6 35.8 26.0 26.8 29.0 32.1 30.3 39.1 29.4 37.8 29.2 35.3 29.8 26.3 22.9 37.7 32.5 40.5 18.5 12.5 12.2 26.9 12.5 22.7 16.4 18.3 17.9 17.4 18.2 19.1 14.9 1.8 1.7 2.7 .4 1.2 .0 .8 1.9 1.1 2.8 1.3 1.0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .4 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .5 .0 16.5 23.1 17.3 18.8 19.5 14.4 17.5 20.4 23.2 21.1 16.9 20.1 14.9
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 1
Region
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 2
The government of Ontario is planning to build a $1.4 billion road from Windsor to a bridge between Windsor and Detroit that has not been approved by the State of Michigan. Prior to today have you heard or not heard about this project? Total Responses Region Ontario 2011-08 Central GTA Golden Horseshoe/West Northeast Southwest Toronto Gender Male Female Age 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus Vote Profile Liberal PC NDP Green Other Undecided 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155 Heard Percentage 48.8 53.6 47.7 48.6 47.0 66.2 35.9 53.4 44.4 37.9 36.7 50.6 47.4 66.8 52.8 51.0 45.4 30.4 100.0 43.0 Not heard Percentage 51.2 46.4 52.3 51.4 53.0 33.8 64.1 46.6 55.6 62.1 63.3 49.4 52.6 33.2 47.2 49.0 54.6 69.6 .0 57.0
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 3
Region
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 4
It makes little sense for the province of Ontario to build the $1.4 billion road to connect Windsor to a bridge that has not been approved by the State of Michigan. Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree
Total
Agree
Disagree
Unsure
Region
Responses 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155
Percentage 52.2 38.4 55.2 54.9 59.0 44.7 48.4 49.8 54.6 42.1 49.5 53.2 56.7 58.8 47.7 56.3 56.0 70.8 .0 47.7
Percentage 14.3 22.3 10.6 16.3 13.0 14.9 15.1 16.7 11.9 20.0 16.5 13.6 13.9 8.4 15.6 11.3 22.1 12.2 100.0 9.8
Percentage 7.2 5.6 6.1 5.2 8.3 8.9 9.6 8.2 6.1 8.4 7.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.7 7.1 5.1 6.7 .0 8.4
Percentage 19.3 22.5 19.5 19.0 15.8 25.5 17.3 19.5 19.2 18.9 20.2 20.8 16.0 20.2 23.5 20.7 9.4 .0 .0 21.2
Percentage 7.0 11.2 8.6 4.6 4.0 6.0 9.6 5.7 8.3 10.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 5.7 5.6 4.6 7.4 10.3 .0 12.8
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 5
Even though there are already three crossings between Ontario and Michigan and cross-border traffic has dropped by almost half over the past ten years, the province of Ontario should pay $1.4 billion to build a new road that would connect Ontario and Michigan. Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree
Total
Agree
Disagree
Unsure
Region
Responses 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155
Percentage 19.7 23.8 18.1 24.2 13.5 26.4 18.3 24.9 14.6 17.9 22.9 19.5 13.9 23.3 24.9 19.8 14.9 .0 .0 17.3
Percentage 11.5 12.4 9.7 10.2 9.9 16.6 14.1 12.9 10.0 11.6 9.2 14.3 14.4 8.4 14.0 10.8 11.9 25.5 .0 7.3
Percentage 10.6 8.1 11.1 9.9 7.9 10.3 16.5 9.8 11.3 9.5 16.5 11.0 8.2 8.4 12.0 6.9 16.9 12.2 .0 8.8
Percentage 49.1 43.6 51.7 49.0 57.4 40.9 42.0 44.2 53.8 46.3 46.8 48.1 52.1 51.9 41.5 56.1 47.0 52.0 .0 50.9
Percentage 9.2 12.1 9.4 6.8 11.4 6.0 9.0 8.1 10.2 14.7 4.6 7.1 11.3 8.0 7.6 6.4 9.2 10.3 100.0 15.7
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 6
Construction or improvement of Ontario schools OR Construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan Construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan
Total
Unsure
Region
Responses 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155
Percentage 89.9 87.5 89.9 92.1 92.6 80.6 92.8 87.8 92.0 96.8 91.7 87.7 87.6 86.3 90.3 85.7 95.2 100.0 100.0 90.9
Percentage 6.3 11.0 6.2 2.3 4.6 13.4 4.5 8.0 4.6 1.1 7.3 6.5 7.7 8.8 6.3 8.5 3.5 .0 .0 5.4
Percentage 3.8 1.5 3.8 5.6 2.8 6.0 2.6 4.1 3.5 2.1 .9 5.8 4.6 5.0 3.3 5.7 1.3 .0 .0 3.7
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 7
Construction or improvement of Ontario's hospitals OR Construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan Construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan
Total
Unsure
Region
Responses 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155
Percentage 92.7 95.1 93.4 92.5 96.0 81.2 94.8 89.9 95.4 94.7 93.6 91.6 93.8 90.5 91.4 91.7 97.7 100.0 100.0 91.4
Percentage 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.8 .8 11.0 3.9 5.9 2.0 2.1 5.5 3.9 3.1 5.0 5.2 3.7 1.0 .0 .0 5.3
Percentage 3.4 1.5 3.0 3.7 3.3 7.8 1.3 4.1 2.6 3.2 .9 4.5 3.1 4.6 3.5 4.6 1.3 .0 .0 3.3
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 8
Construction or improvement of Ontario's existing roads OR Construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan Construction or improvement of Ontario's existing roads Construction of a new road connecting Ontario with Michigan
Total
Unsure
Region
Responses 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155
Percentage 88.0 88.2 91.3 88.7 93.8 72.1 85.3 84.5 91.4 92.6 91.7 84.4 87.6 84.7 85.4 88.5 90.7 100.0 100.0 87.8
Percentage 7.7 9.4 5.3 7.6 2.9 17.8 10.0 10.5 5.0 3.2 7.3 9.1 8.2 10.3 9.4 7.7 6.8 .0 .0 6.6
Percentage 4.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 3.3 10.0 4.7 4.9 3.6 4.2 .9 6.5 4.1 5.0 5.1 3.8 2.5 .0 .0 5.6
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 9
Do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose this proposed approach to financing the bridge construction? Total Responses 814 75 224 139 169 96 110 401 412 166 144 172 140 191 242 264 141 11 1 155 Support Percentage 15.3 18.7 16.2 16.1 11.1 23.8 9.3 20.4 10.4 14.7 13.8 16.2 14.9 16.4 21.8 14.4 12.0 6.7 .0 10.5 Somewhat support Percentage 10.9 12.1 8.4 14.5 11.6 14.5 6.1 13.4 8.3 8.4 14.7 12.3 9.8 9.5 13.8 10.0 9.1 .0 .0 10.1 Somewhat oppose Percentage 11.8 8.4 8.8 9.8 14.7 11.0 19.3 10.1 13.5 15.8 11.0 10.4 9.3 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.7 12.2 100.0 9.0 Oppose Percentage 55.9 54.2 61.0 54.8 56.3 45.9 56.0 49.2 62.4 51.6 55.0 55.2 60.8 57.3 45.9 57.7 59.2 74.5 .0 64.2 Unsure Percentage 6.1 6.5 5.6 4.9 6.2 4.8 9.3 6.9 5.3 9.5 5.5 5.8 5.2 4.6 6.0 5.6 7.0 6.6 .0 6.2
Region
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 10
Region
Gender
Male Female
Age
18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus
Vote Profile
Random telephone surveys of a total of 814 Ontarians from August 26th to 29th, 2011. The margin of error for a survey of 814 respondents is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com - Page 11