Biostatistic Chapter Two-1

Chapter 2
Probability and probability distribution
Teresa K.
Teresa Kisi.(Bsc., MPH) 1

Introduction to probability
What is Probability?
 The probability of an event is the relative frequency or
the event over an infinite number of trials.
Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 2

Basic Terms
 Random experiment: is an action or process that leads

to one of several possible outcomes.
 Here are some of random experiment and their
possible out come:
Illustration 1. Experiment: flipping a coin
possible out comes: heads and tails
Illustration 2. Experiment: record marks on
statistics test(out of 100)
possible out comes: number between
(0-100)
Basic Terms cont’d...
 The first steps in assigning probabilities is to produce

a list of the outcomes.
The lists of outcomes must be exhaustive, which
means that all the possible outcome must be
included.
 E.g.. In the list of the outcomes of the rolling of
die
S = 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5
The list is not exhaustive, because we have
omitted 6
Basic Terms cont’d...
The outcomes must be mutually exclusive, which

means that no two outcome can occur at the
same time
 From illustration 2 above:
0-50, 50-60, 60-70, 70-80, 80-100
These out comes are not mutually exclusive

because two outcomes can occur for some
students. If a student receive a mark 70,
both the third and the fourth outcomes
occur.
Basic Terms cont’d …
 Experiment: is a situation involving chance or

probability that leads to results called outcomes.
 Outcome: is the result of a single trial of an
experiment.
 The sample space: is the set of all possible outcomes
(male or female for single births, survive or die for
disease, etc.)

Basic Terms cont’d …
 Event: An event is any set of outcomes of interest.

A subset of the sample space
 Probability of an event P(E): “Chance” that an event

will occur. The probability of this event occurring can
be estimated by:
the number of ways of event E occurs
P( E ) =
the total number of possible outcome
It is the measure of how likely an event is.

Basic terms, Probability, cont’d …
 Is a measure of the chance of getting some outcome

of interest from some experiment.
The experiment might be rolling a dice and the
outcome of interest might be getting a six; or
The experiment might be performing a biopsy
with the outcome of interest being evidence of
malignancy and so on.

Basic Terms, Probability, cont’d …
 A prior probability is an initial probability value

originally obtained before any additional information is
obtained.
 A posterior probability is a probability value that has
been revised by using additional information that is
later obtained.

Class drill
Find the sample space for rolling two dice

simultaneously .
Find the sample space for sex of the

children if a family has three children

Types of probability
1. Classical Probability
 Classical Method
– Uses sample space to determine the numerical
probability that an event will happen.
– Assumes that all out comes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.
– Is the first type of probability studied formally by
mathematicians in the 17th and 18th century.
If the number of outcomes belonging to an event E is NE,
and the total number of sample space is N, then the
probability of event E is defined as:
P(E)=NE/N
Classical Probability cont’d…
Example: A couple wants to have exactly 3

children. Assume that each child is either a Boy or a
Girl and that there are no duplicate births.
 List sample space for the three children.

 Find the probability that two of them will be boys?

Possible orderings:
Solution: S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG,
GGB, GGG}
Then the event E={BBG, BGB, GBB}
P(E)=3/8
2. Relative Frequency/Empirical Probabilities
– Uses frequency distributions based on
observation.
This approach to probability is well-suited to a
wide range of scientific disciplines.
It is based on the idea that the underlying
probability of an event can be measured by
repeated trials Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 13
Relative frequency of an event occurring in an infinitely
large number of trials
Time period Number of Total Relative

male live number of frequency
birth live birth of live male
birth
1965 1927.054 3760.358 0.51247
1965-1969 9219.202 17989.360 0.51248
1965-1974 17857.860 34832.050 0.51269

Classical Probability cont’d…
3. Subjective probability
 Assigning probabilities based on the assignor’s
judgment.
 For instance, an experienced physician may say “this
patient has a 50% chance of recovery.”

Mutually exclusive events and the additive law
 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they

have no elements in common.
 If A and B are outcomes of an experiment they
cannot both happen at the same time.
For example, in the toss of a coin, the event A (it
lands heads) and event B ( it lands tails) are
mutually exclusive.
In the throw of a pair of dice, the event A ( the
sum of faces is 7) and B ( the sum of faces is 11)
are mutually exclusive.
Additive law
 In two mutually exclusive events, the probability of

either of the two events occurring is obtained by
adding the probabilities of each event.
 Thus, if A and B are mutually exclusive events,
Pr(A or B) = Pr (A) + Pr(B).
 For more than two events, if A, B, C… are mutually
exclusive events,
Pr(A or B or C or…) = Pr (A) + pr(B)+ pr(C) + …

Example 1
1. Consider an experiment of rolling a die,

 list the sample space and find the probability of:
a. A = {1} b. B = {5} c. C = {1} or {5}

Solution
 Set of possible outcomes is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
 Events A = {1} and B = {5} are mutually exclusive.
 Pr(A) = Pr(roll results in 1), Pr(A or B) = Pr(roll results

in 1 or 5) =Pr(A)+ Pr(B)
 The event that either A or B occurs is represented as:
Pr (A or B) =P(AUB) =2/6=0.33

Example 2
 Let A = the event an odd number turns up, A = (1,3,5)

 Let B = the event a 1,2 or 3 turns up; B = (1,2,3 )
 Let C = the event a 2 turns up, C= (2)
 i) Find Pr (A); Pr (B) and Pr (C)
solutions
Pr(A) = Pr(1) + Pr(3) + Pr(5)
= 1/6+1/6+ 1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2
Pr(B) = Pr(1) + pr(2) + Pr(3)
= 1/6+1/6+1/6 = 3/6 = ½
Pr ( C ) = Pr(2) = 1/6
ii) Are A and B; A and C; B and C mutually exclusive?
Solutions:
A and B are not mutually exclusive. Because they
have the elements 1 and 3 in common
similarly, B and C are not mutually exclusive. They

have the element 2 in common.
A and C are mutually exclusive. They don’t have any

element in common
When A and B are not mutually exclusive
pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)-pr(A n B)
 The reason is that in such a situation A and B
overlap, and the elements in the overlap are counted
twice’.
The formula considered earlier for mutually exclusive
events is a special case of this, since pr(A and B) = 0.
Example 3. Of 200 seniors at a certain college, 98 are

women, 34 are majoring in Biology, and 20 Biology
majors are women. If one student is chosen at
random from the senior class, what is the probability
that the choice will be either a Biology major or a
women.
Solutions:
Pr ( Biology major or woman ) = Pr (Biology major) +
Pr(woman ) – Pr (Biology major and woman)
=34/200 + 98/200 - 20/200
= 112/200 = 0.56

Conditional probabilities and the multiplicative law
 Sometimes the chance a particular event happens

depends on the outcome of some other event. This
applies obviously with many events that are spread
out in time.
E.g. The chance a patient with some disease
survives the next year depends on his having
survived to the present time. Such probabilities
are called conditional.
 The notation is Pr(B/A), which is read as “the

probability event B occurs given that event A has
already occurred .” Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 24
Conditional probabilities cont’d…
 Let A and B be two events of a sample space S:

The conditional probability of an event A, given B,
denoted by
Pr ( A/B )= P(A n B) / P(B) , P(B) ≠ 0.
Similarly, P(B/A) = P(A n B) / P(A) , P(A) ≠ 0.

Example 1 Suppose in country X the chance that an
infant lives to age 25 is 0.95, whereas the chance
that he lives to age 65 is 0.65. What is the chance
that a person 25 years of age survives to age 65?
Solution:
For the latter, it is understood that to survive to age
65 means to survive both from birth to age 25 and
from age 25 to 65.

 Independent Events Often there are two events such
that the occurrence or nonoccurrence of one does
not in any way affect the occurrence or
nonoccurrence of the others
Example 1
A classic example is n tosses of a coin and the
chances that on each toss it lands heads. These are
independent events. The chance of heads on any one
toss is independent of the number of previous
heads. No matter how many heads have already
been observed, the chance of heads on the next toss
is ½.

Example 2
A similar situation prevails with the sex of
offspring. The chance of a male is approximately
½. Regardless of the sexes of previous offspring,
the chance the next child is a male is still ½.
With independent events,
The multiplicative law becomes :
Pr(A and B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)
Hence, Pr(A) = Pr(A and B) / Pr(B) ,
where: Pr(B) ≠ 0
Pr(B) = Pr(A and B) / Pr(A) , where Pr(A) ≠ 0
Example 3:
A graduate statistics course has seven male and

three female students. The teacher will teach two
classes . His style is to select one student at random
and pick on him or her to answer the questions
during that class. What is the probability that the
two students chosen are females?
It is now possible to select the same students in each

of the two classes

Solution
A and B are independent events and we apply the

multiplication rule for independent events:
– P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
The probability of choosing the female students
in each of the two classes is the same. i.e
– P(A) = 3/10
– P(B) = 3/10
– P(A and B) = 3/10*3/10 = 0.09

Properties of probability
 The probability of any event E is a number between

and including 0 and 1. (0≤ pr(E) ≤ 1)
 If the event E cannot occur, then the probability of E is
0. The notation pr(E) = 0 means that E cannot occur
 If the event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
The notation Pr(E) = 1 means that E will occur.
 If the probability that an event occur is pr(E), then the
probability that the event will not occur is 1-pr(E)
 The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the
sample space is 1.
Probability Distribution
 A probability distribution is a table or an equation that

links each outcome of a statistical experiment with
its probability of occurrence.
 A probability distribution consists of the value a
random variable can assume and the corresponding
probabilities of the value.
 Is a function which assigns probabilities to the values
of a random variable.

Probability Distribution
Construct a probability distribution for rolling a

single die once.
Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and

each outcome has probability of 1/6, the distribution is
as follow
Out come, x 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability, pr(x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Probability Distribution for Categorical Variable
1. Binomial distribution
 A binomial experiment (also known as a Bernoulli trial) is a
statistical experiment that has the following properties:
Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We
call one of these outcomes a success and the other, a
failure.
The experiment consists of n repeated fixed number of
trials.
The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on
every trial.
The out come of each trials must be independent; that is,
the outcome on one trial does not affect the outcome on
other trials.

Binomial distribution cont’d…
 The binomial distribution describes the distribution

of "success" in a series of trials. that is, out of N
trials, what is the probability that X of them succeed.
– Examples : Coin tosses, sex of offspring, and so on.
 The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution.
The number of successes can only take positive
integer values.
The outcome of a binomial experiment and the

corresponding probabilities of these outcome are called
a binomial distribution
Binomial Formula:
The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution that
describes the probability distribution of the number of
successes in a sequence of n independent trials, each
of them occurring with a probability p.

Binomial
Binomial formula…
distribution cont’d…
 If the binomial assumptions are satisfied, the probability of r

successes in n trials and the probability of success on an
individual trial is P,
 Then the binomial probability is defined by:
 Where
is the number of ways of choosing r items from n.

 The general formula for the coefficients

Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution
 If p is the probability of success and q is the

probability of failure in a binomial trial, then the
expected number of successes in n trials (i.e. the
mean value of the binomial distribution) is:
 The variance of the binomial distribution is:

Example 1
 Suppose that in a certain malarious area past

experience indicates that the probability of a person
with a high fever will be positive for malaria is 0.7.
Consider 3 randomly selected patients (with high
fever) in that same area.
1. What is the probability that no patient will be
positive for malaria?
2. What is the probability that exactly one
patient will be positive for malaria?
3. What is the probability that exactly two of the
patients will be positive for malaria?
Example 1 cont’d…
4. What is the probability that all patients will be

positive for malaria?
5. Find the mean and the SD of the probability
distribution given above.

Example 2
Assume that, when a child is born, the probability it is

a girl is ½ and that the sex of the child does not
depend on the sex of an older sibling.
A) Find the probability distribution for the number of
girls in a family with 4 children.
B) Find the mean and the standard deviation of this
distribution.

Solution
f(x) = p(X=r) = 4 Cr (1/2)r (1/2)4-r ;
X= 0 ,1, 2, 3, 4.
A. Probability distribution
B. Mean = nP = 4 x 1/2 = 2
Standard deviation =

2. The Poisson distribution
A discrete probability distribution that is useful when

n is large, P is small and when the variables occur over
a period of time.
The probability of observing r successes is:

r
l e  l
P(x  r) 
r!

The Poisson distribution cont’d …
 r =Number of successes per unit time

 e= 2.718 (The base of the natural log)
 The mean and variance of a Poisson
distributed variable are given by:
m = l and V = l,l
 It is often used as a model for the number of events in
a specific time period.
 It is determined by one parameter, lambda.

The Poisson distribution cont’d …
The deference between the two random variable is

that a binomial random variable is the number of
success in a set number of trials, where as a Poisson
random variable is the number of success in an
interval of time or specific region of space.
Example:
The number of car arriving at a service station in 1
hour. (The interval of time is 1 hour.)
The number of accident in 1 day on a particular
stretch of highway. ( the interval is defined both by
time,(1 day,) and space, ( the particular stretch of
highway.))
Characteristics of Poisson Distribution
 The Poisson random variable should satisfies the
following conditions:
The number of successes that occur in any
intervals is independent of the number of
successes that occur in any other interval.
The probability of a success during a small interval
is proportional to the entire length of the interval.
The probability of a success in an interval is the
same for all equal-sized interval
The probability of more than one success in an
interval approaches 0 as the interval becomes
smaller.
Poisson Distribution
 Some of the examples in which Poisson distribution

is appropriate are:
Birth defects and genetic mutations
Rare diseases like Leukemia,
Car accidents and
Traffic flow and so on

Example:
 If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson

distribution with an average of 3 failures every twenty
weeks, calculate the probability that there will not be
more than one failure during a particular week.
Solution
 "Not more than one failure" means we need to include
the probabilities for "0 failures" plus "1 failure".

Probability Distribution for continuous Variables
 If a random variable is a continuous variable, its probability

distribution is called a continuous probability distribution.
 A continuous probability distribution differs from a discrete
probability distribution by:
Under different circumstances, the outcome of a
random variable may not be limited to categories or
counts.
Because a continuous random variable X can take on an
uncountable infinite number of values, the probability
associated with any particular one value is almost equal
to zero.
As a result, a continuous probability distribution cannot
be expressed in tabular form.
Characteristics of a distribution
 Features commonly used to describe a distribution are

location, dispersion, modality and skewness.
– Location tells us something about the average
value of the variable.
– Dispersion tells us something about how spread
out, the values of the variable are.
– Modality refers to the number of peaks in the
distribution.
– Skewness refers to whether or not the distribution
is symmetric

Density function
 Most often, the equation used to describe a continuous

probability distribution is called a probability density
function
 For a continuous probability distribution, the density
function has the following properties:
Since the continuous random variable is defined over
a continuous range of values (called the domain of
the variable), the graph of the density function will
also be continuous over that range.

Density function cont’d …
The area bounded by the curve of the density

function and the x-axis is equal to 1, when
computed over the domain of the variable.
The probability that a random variable assumes a
value between a and b is equal to the area under
the density function bounded by a and b.

Normal distribution/Gaussian distribution
 The normal distribution refers to a family of

continuous probability distributions described by the
normal equation
 The normal distribution is a theoretical, continuous
probability distribution whose equation is:

where
X is a normal random variable, which is the random
variable in the normal equation
μ is the mean of populations
σ is the standard deviation
π is approximately 3.14159, and e is approximately
2.71828.

Normal Curve
 The graph of the normal distribution depends on two

factors:
The mean and the standard deviation.
 The mean of the distribution determines the
location/center of the graph, and the standard
deviation determines the height and width of the
graph.
 When the standard deviation is large, the curve is short
and wide; when the standard deviation is small, the
curve is tall and narrow.
 All normal distributions look like a symmetric, bell-
shaped curve. Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 56
Normal Curve cont’d…

Properties of Normal Distribution
 It is a probability distribution of a continuous

variable. It extends from minus infinity (-∞) to plus
infinity (+∞).
 The normal curve is symmetrical about the mean
 The mean is at the middle and divides the area into
halves;
 The total area under the curve is equal to 1;
 It is completely determined by its mean and standard
deviation σ (or variance, σ2)

Standard Normal Distribution
 Is normal curve, with a mean of zero and a standard
deviation of 1 unit.
 We can transform all the observations of any normal
random variable X with mean μ and variance σ to a
new set of observations of another normal random
variable Z with mean 0 and variance 1 using the
following transformation:

 Since the values of μ and σ will depend on the particular

problem in hand and tables of the normal distribution
cannot be published for all values of μ and σ,
 Calculations are made by referring to the standard normal

distribution which has μ = 0 and σ = 1.
 Thus an observation x from a normal distribution with

mean μ and standard deviation σ can be related to a
Standard normal distribution by calculating :
SND = Z = (x - μ ) / σ = (raw score - population mean) /

population SD Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 60
 To simplify the tabulation of these areas, we

standardize each value of x by expressing it as a z-
score, the number of standard deviations (s) it lies
from the mean m.

SND
Standard … Distribution
Normal
 Additionally, every normal curve (regardless of its mean

or standard deviation) conforms to the following "rule".
About 68% of the area under the curve falls within
1 standard deviation of the mean.
About 95% of the area under the curve falls within
2 standard deviations of the mean.
About 99.7% of the area under the curve falls
within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

 A graph of this standardized (mean 0 and variance 1)

normal curve is given in Graph:

Properties of Standard Normal Distribution
Mean = 0; Standard deviation = 1

When x = m, z = 0
Symmetric about z = 0
Values of z to the left of center are negative
Values of z to the right of center are positive
Total area under the curve is 1.

Area under any Normal curve
 To find the area under a normal curve ( with mean μ

and standard deviation σ) between x=a and x=b, find
the Z scores corresponding to a and b (call them Z1 and
Z2) and then find the area under the standard normal
curve between Z1 and Z2 from the published table.
 Z-scores are important because given a Z – value we

can find out the probability of obtaining a score this
large or larger (or this low or lower).

Area under any Normal curve cont’d …
• To look up the probability of obtaining a Z-value as

large or larger than a given value, look up the first
two digits of the Z-score in the left hand column and
then read the hundredths place across the top.

Obtaining probability from z score
Pr(Z ≤ -Zo) = Pr(Z ≥ Zo) = 1– P(z ≤ Zo)

Pr(-Zo ≤z ≤0) =pr(0 ≤z ≤Zo)
Where as: Zo the given or calculated value

Table of standard normal curve
Example:
Suppose we want to compute the area under the
standardized normal curve to the right of Z = 1.45
This area can be computed by finding the
probability under the normal curve. The probability
can be read from table of standardized normal
curve by combining the value of 1.4 under the first
column and 0.05 under the first row.

Table of standard normal curve
The green shaded area in the diagram represents

the area that is within 1.45 standard deviations
from the mean. The area of this shaded portion is
0.4265 (or 42.65% of the total area under the
mean and Z=1.45.
Thus the area at the right of 1.45 is
0.5-0.4265 = 0.0735

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3304 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 Teresa K.(Bsc.,
0.4788 0.4793 MPH) 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 70
0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
Example
 Find the area under the standard normal curve for
the following, using the z-table. Sketch each one.
a. between z = 0 and z = 0.78
b. between z = -0.56 and z = 0
c. between z = -0.43 and z = 0.78
d. between z = 0.44 and z = 1.50
e. to the right of z = -1.33.
Solution:
a. p(0≤z≤0.78)= 0.2823
b. P(-0.56 ≤z ≤0) = pr(0 ≤z ≤0.56) = 0.2123
c. Pr(-0.43 ≤ z ≤ 0.78) = pr(-0.43 ≤ z ≤ 0) +pr(0 ≤ z ≤
0.78)
= pr(0≤ z ≤ 0.43) +pr(0 ≤ z ≤ 0.78)
= 0.1664 +0.2823 = 0.4487
d. Pr(0.44 ≤ z ≤ 1.50)
= pr(0 ≤ z ≤1.50) –pr(0 ≤ z ≤0.44) = 0.4332 -0.170
= 0.2632
e. Pr(-1.33 ≤ z) = 0.5 + pr(0 ≤ z ≤ 1.33)
= 0.5 + 0.4082 = 0.9082

Example
 Suppose scores on an IQ test are normally distributed. If
the test has a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of
10, what is the probability that a person who takes the
test will score between 90 and 110?
Solution:
Let X be IQ test, X ~ N(100, 100)
pr(90 ≤ X ≤ 110) =pr((90 -100)/10 ≤ (x – m)/ s ≤ (110 -
100) /10 ) = pr(-1 ≤ z ≤ 1) = 2pr(0 ≤ z ≤ 1) = 2x0.3413
= 0.6826


Biostatistic Chapter Two-1

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Biostatistic Chapter Two-1

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Chapter 2

Probability and probability distribution

Teresa Kisi.(Bsc., MPH) 1

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 2

 Random experiment: is an action or process that leads

 The first steps in assigning probabilities is to produce

The outcomes must be mutually exclusive, which

These out comes are not mutually exclusive

 Experiment: is a situation involving chance or

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 6

 Event: An event is any set of outcomes of interest.

 Probability of an event P(E): “Chance” that an event

It is the measure of how likely an event is.

 Is a measure of the chance of getting some outcome

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 8

 A prior probability is an initial probability value

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 9

Find the sample space for rolling two dice

Find the sample space for sex of the

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 10

Example: A couple wants to have exactly 3

 List sample space for the three children.

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 12

Time period Number of Total Relative

1965-1969 9219.202 17989.360 0.51248

1965-1974 17857.860 34832.050 0.51269

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 14

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 15

 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they

 In two mutually exclusive events, the probability of

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 17

1. Consider an experiment of rolling a die,

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 18

 Pr(A) = Pr(roll results in 1), Pr(A or B) = Pr(roll results

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 19

 Let A = the event an odd number turns up, A = (1,3,5)

similarly, B and C are not mutually exclusive. They

A and C are mutually exclusive. They don’t have any

Example 3. Of 200 seniors at a certain college, 98 are

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 23

 Sometimes the chance a particular event happens

 The notation is Pr(B/A), which is read as “the

 Let A and B be two events of a sample space S:

Pr ( A/B )= P(A n B) / P(B) , P(B) ≠ 0.

Similarly, P(B/A) = P(A n B) / P(A) , P(A) ≠ 0.

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 25

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 26

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 27

A graduate statistics course has seven male and

It is now possible to select the same students in each

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 29

A and B are independent events and we apply the

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 30

 The probability of any event E is a number between

 A probability distribution is a table or an equation that

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 32

Construct a probability distribution for rolling a

Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 34

 The binomial distribution describes the distribution

The outcome of a binomial experiment and the

Teresa K.(Bsc., MPH) 36

 If the binomial assumptions are satisfied, the probability of r