Al-Hikma University College

Department of Medical Laboratory

Techniques
2nd Year

Biostatistics
Probability
(Part - 2)

Lecture - 8

Lecture By
Dr. Mahmoud Abbas Mahmoud Al-Naimi
Assistant Professor
mahmoudalnaimi@hiuc.edu.iq
mahmoudalnaimi@gmail.com

2020
 Revision Examples
Example:
In the tossing a coin each of the two sides (Head and Tail) is equally
likely to be observed. So, the probability that a Head will be
observed is equal to 1/2.

Note that, in the same time, the probability that a Tail will be
observed is also equal to 1/2.
Example:
In the rolling of the die (six sided die), each of the six sides is equally
likely to be observed. So, the probability that a 4 will be observed is
equal to 1/6.

Note that, in the same time, the probability that a 3 will be observed
is also equal to 1/6.
Example:
A container contains 5 red, 2 black, and 3 green balls. If one ball is
drawn randomly from this container what is the probability it will
be black?

Solution:
The total number of the balls in the
container is (5 + 2 + 3) = 10
The total number of the black balls in
the container is 2
So, the probability of drawing a black
ball will be equal to 2/10 = 1/5

Note that, in the same time, the probability of drawing a red ball
will be equal to
5/10 = 1/2
 Theorems of Probability

Theorem 1
Probability is expressed as a number between 1 and 0,
where a value of 1 is a certainty that an event will occur
and a value of 0 is a certainty that an event will not
occur.

The probability of an event (A ) , always satisfies

0 ≤ P (A ) ≤ 1
Theorem 2

If P(A) is the probability that event A will occur, then

the probability that A will not occur is:
P(not A) = 1 - P(A)
Note: (not A) is denoted as A or A
Example:
In the rolling of the die (six sided die), what is the probability that a
4 will NOT obtained.

Solution:
The probability that a 4 will be observed is equal to 1/6. So, the
probability that it will NOT obtained.
= 1 - 1/6
= 5/6
Theorem 3

If A and B are two mutually exclusive events (the

occurrence of one event makes the other event
impossible), then the probability that either event A or
event B will occur is the sum of their respective
probabilities:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
This is the “additive law of probability”.
Example:
In the rolling of a die (six sided die), what is the probability that a
4 or 3 will be observed.

Solution:
Observing 4 observing 3 are mutually exclusive events. So, The
probability that a 4 or 3 will be observed is equal to the sum of their
respective probabilities.
= 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6
= 1/3
Theorem 4

If event A and event B are not mutually exclusive, then

the probability of either event A or event B or both is
given by:
P(A or B or both) = P(A) + P(B) – P(both)
Events that are not mutually exclusive have some
outcomes in common.
Example:
The probability that a student passes chemistry is 2/3, and the
probability that he passes biology is 4/9. If the probability that he
passes both courses is 14/45, what is the probability that he passes
at least one course.

Solution:
If C is the event of “passing chemistry” and B the event “passing
biology” then the probability that he passes at least one course
means P(C or B or both)

Therefore;
P(C or B or both) = P(C) + P(B) – P(both)
= 2/3 + 4/9 – 14/45
= 36/45
= 4/5
Theorem 5

The sum of the probabilities of all possible events of a

situation is equal to 1
P(A) + P(B) + ….. + P(N) = 1

For example In the rolling of a die (six sided die), the sum of the
probabilities of obtaining 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, is equal to 1
Example:
A health inspector examines 3 surgical scissors in a sample to
determine if they are acceptable. From past experience it is known
that the probability of finding no nonconforming scissors in the
sample of 3 is 0.990, the probability of 1 nonconforming scissors in
the sample of 3 is 0.006, and the probability of finding 2
nonconforming scissors in the sample of 3 is 0.003. What is the
probability of finding 3 nonconforming scissors in the sample of 3?

Solution:
There are 4, and only 4, events to this situation: 0 nonconforming
units, 1 nonconforming unit, 2 nonconforming scissors, and 3
nonconforming scissors.
P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1
0.990 + 0.006 + 0.003 + P(3) = 1
P(3) = 1 - 0.999
= 0.001
Theorem 6

If A and B are independent events (one where its

occurrence has no influence on the probability of the
other event or events), then the probability of both A
and B occurring is the product of their respective
probabilities:
P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B)
Example:
The probability that the first order of injection needles will be
rejected is 0.30, and the probability that the second order will be
rejected is 0.10. What is the probability that both orders will be
rejected?

Solution:
If A is the event of “rejection of first order” and B the event
“rejection of second order” then the probability that both orders
will be rejected is P(A and B). Since A and B are independent events
therefore;
P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B)
= 0.30 X 0.10
= 0.03
Theorem 7

If A and B are dependent events, the probability of both

A and B occurring is the probability of A and the
probability that if A occurred, then B will occur also:
P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B\A)
P(B\A) is defined as the probability of event B, provided
that event A has occurred.
This theorem sometimes referred to as conditional
theorem, since the probability of the second event
depends on the result of the first event. It is applicable
for more than two events.
Example:
A container contains 5 red, 2 black, and 3 green balls. If two balls
are drawn randomly from this container (without replacement).
What is the probability that both will be red?

Solution:
The total number of the balls in the
container is (5 + 2 + 3) = 10
The probability of the first one been red
ball (event A) is P(A) = 5/10 = 2/5
Since the first ball not returned to the
container, on the second draw there are
only 9 balls in the container with 4 red
since one red ball was removed on the
first draw; therefore, P(B\A) = 4/9
P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B\A)
= 5/10 X 4/9
= 2/9
Dr. Mahmoud Al-Naimi