UNIT-4

PROBABILITY

It is remarkable that a science, which began with the consideration of games of chance,
should be elevated to the rank of the most important subject of human knowledge. —Pierre
Simon Laplace

Introduction In everyday life, we come across statements such as

(1) It will probably rain today.
(2) I doubt that he will pass the test.
(3) Most probably, Kavita will stand first in the annual examination.
(4) Chances are high that the prices of diesel will go up.
(5) There is a 50-50 chance of India winning a toss in today’s match.
The words ‘probably’, ‘doubt’, ‘most probably’, ‘chances’, etc., used in the statements above
involve an element of uncertainty. For example,
The uncertainty of ‘probably’ etc can be measured numerically by means of ‘probability’ in
many cases. Though probability started with gambling, it has been used extensively in the
fields of Physical Sciences, Commerce, Biological Sciences, Medical Sciences, Weather
Forecasting, etc.

CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

The dictionary meaning of the term probability is “likely though not certain to occur.”
Probability of given event is an expression of likelihood or chance of occurrence of an event.
A probability is a number which range from 0 to 1. 0 for an event cannot occur and 1for an
event certain to occur.
Definition- “Probability is the limit of the relative frequency of successes in an infinite
sequence of trials.” – Croxton and Cowden

Classical Probability-This gives us the formula for classical probability. The probability of
an event occurring is the number in the event divided by the number in the sample space.
Again, this is only true when the events are equally likely. A classical probability is the
relative frequency of each event in the sample space when each event is equally likely.

Probability of occurring an event (p) = No. of Favorable Events/ Total No. of Likely Event

For example, if there are 4 red and 5 white balls in a bag, the probability of the ball being red,
in case of one ball is drawn, will be 4/9, because the number of favorable events is 4 and the
total number of likely event is 9.

Empirical or Statistical Approach of Probability- It is also known as ‘Relative Frequency

Probability’. According to this approach probability is computed on the basis of available
data or frequencies or past experiences.
 FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS OR TERM RELATING TO PROBABILITY

Probability Experiment- Process which leads to well-defined results call outcomes

Outcome- The result of a single trial of a probability experiment
Sample Space- Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
Event- One or more outcomes of a probability experiment
Classical Probability- Uses the sample space to determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen. Also called theoretical probability.
Equally Likely Events- Events which have the same probability of occurring.
Complement of an Event- All the events in the sample space except the given events.
Empirical Probability- Uses a frequency distribution to determine the numerical probability.
An empirical probability is a relative frequency.
Subjective Probability- Uses probability values based on an educated guess or estimate. It
employs opinions and inexact information.
Mutually Exclusive Events- Two events which cannot happen at the same time.
Disjoint Events- Another name for mutually exclusive events.
Independent Events- Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect
the probability of the other occurring.
Dependent Events-Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.

PROBABILITY THEOREMS

1) Addition Theorem- If two events (A & B) are mutually exclusive and probability of
occurrence of A is P (A) and that B is P (B), then probability of occurrence of any
event (A & B) will be the sum of the individual probabilities of A & B. If two events
are mutually exclusive, then the probability of either occurring is the sum of the
probabilities of each occurring.
Symbolically Addition Rule
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
In events which aren't mutually exclusive, there is some overlap. When P(A) and P(B) are
added, the probability of the intersection (and) is added twice. To compensate for that double
addition, the intersection needs to be subtracted.

General Addition Rule

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A and B)

Multiplication Theorem- This theorem is also called as “Theorem of Compound

Probability”. According to this theorem “If two events are independent, and probability of
occurrence of A is P (A) and that B is P (B), then probability of occurrence of any event (A &
B) will be the product of both these event of the individual probabilities of A & B.
Symbolically Multiplication Rule:
P (A and B) = P (A) * P (B)
Theorem of Conditional Probability: According to this theorem, “The probability of
simultaneous occurrence of the dependent event in the product of the probability of the first
event and the probability of the second after the first sub event has occurred.”
P (A and B) = P (A) * P (B|A)
P (A and B) = P (A) * P (A|B)

PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS

PERMUTATIONS- Permutation mean the total number of different way in which items can
be arranged by changing the order of component it is denoted that nPr.
Symbolically:
n !
Pr = ( )!
n = total no. of event, r = desired no. of event

COMBINATIONS- This concept is very useful in the theory of probability. The different
selections or groups that can be made out of a given set of objects taking all or some of them
at a time are called combinations. It is important that in combination no attention is given to
the order of arrangement of objects.
!
Symbolically- nCr = ( )!∗ !

Inverse Probability or Bayes' Theorem

Probability is calculated before occurrence of an event, while in inverse probability, it is

calculated for the cause of the event after its occurrence. The concept of calculation of
inverse probability was propounded by British mathematician Thomas Bayes. It is also
known as ‘a-Posteriori Probability’. According to this theorem “If the occurrence of an event
can be influenced by various but mutually exclusive reasons, then the calculation of
probability of its occurrence due to particular reasons is called as ‘inverse probability’.”

Mathematically, if an event can be influenced by any one reason out of n mutually exclusive
reasons the probabilities of influence of these reasons are P1, P2, P3……Pn and the probability
of happening the event by each of these reasons are p1, p2, p3….pn, then the probability of
happening the event due to mth reason can be calculated as follows:

Pmpm
P = -----------------------------------------
P1p1 + P2p2+ P3p3……+Pnpn

Example- 1 A bag contains 4 red and 6 white balls. Two drawn are made without
replacement, what is the probability that the balls are-
1. Red
2. White

Solution- total balls = 4+6

=10
1. Probability of red ball –
P(A) = 4/10
P(B/A) = 3/9
Then , P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B/A) = 4/10 * 3/9 = 2/15

2. Probability that both the balls are white-

P(A) = 6/10
P(B/A) = 5/9
Then , P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B/A) = 6/10 * 5/9 = 1/3.

Example- 2 bayes theorem based-

1- A factory has two machine , past record shows that machine x produces 30% of
the items of output abd machine y produces 70% of items. Further 5% of the items
produced by machine x were defective and only 1% of items produced by machine
y were defective. If a defective item are drawn at random . what is the probability
that a defective item was produced by machine y.

Solution- probability of machine x (Px) = 30/100

Probability of machine y( Py)= 70/100

Probability of defective items by machine x (px )= 5/100

Probability of defective items by machine y (py )= 1/100

Px px = 30/100 * 5/100 =3/200
Pypy = 70/100 * 1/100 = 7/1000

/
P= = = 7/22.
/

Exercise

1- In a factory manufacturing transistor, machine A,B, &C manufactured

30%,30% and 40% of the total production of transistor. The output 4%,5%
and 10% of the transistor are defective. If one transistor is selected at
random and if it is fount to be defective, what is the probability that it is
manufactured by machine B.

2- There are three bags that first contains 3 white and 7 black balls, second
contains 5 white and 3 black balls and third contain 8 white and 4 black balls
. a ball is drawn from one of these three bags and it was white then what is
the probability that it is drawn from bag first.
 PROBABILITY THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTION

BERNOULLI THEOREM OR BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

This theorem was propounded by the famous statistician James Bernoulli. According to him
if the probability of occurring an event in one trial or experiment is known, then it can be
calculated that what will be the probability of happening of that event exactly r times out of n
trials. The formula based on this theorem is as follows:
P(r) = nCr(p) r (q) n-r
Whereas:
P(r) = Probability of an event happening exactly r times
n = No. of total trials
r = Desired number of success or happening the event in one trial
p = Probability of success or happening the event in one trial
q = Probability of failure or not happening the event in one trial (1-p)

Characteristics or Properties of Binomial Distribution-

1) Theoretical Frequency Distribution- It is based on Bernoulli theorem of algebra.
2) Discrete Probability Distribution- In this distribution the numbers are in whole no. or
not in fraction.
3) Main Parameters- p and q are two main parameters of binomial distribution.
4) Mean, S.D. and variance- Mean(x) = n*p, S.D.(σ) = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 , Variance .(σ2) = npq

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Named after the French mathematician Simeon Poisson in the year 1837, it was discrete
probability distribution. Poisson probabilities are useful when there are a large number of
independent trials with a small probability of success on a single trial and the variables occur
over a period of time. It can also be used when a density of items is distributed over a given
area or volume. It is used to describe the behavior of rare events such as number of germs in
one drop of pure water.
Use of Poisson distribution-
1) In insurance Problems to count the number of casualties.
2) In determining the number of deaths due to suicides or rare disease
3) The number of typographical errors per page in a typed material or the number of
printing mistakes per page in a book
4) In biology to count the number of bacteria
5) In counting the number of defects per item in statistical quality control
6) Number of accidents taking place per day on a busy road
Lambda in the formula is the mean number of occurrences. If you're approximating a
binomial probability using the Poisson, then lambda is the same as mu or n * p.

Normal Distribution

The normal distribution was first discovered by an English mathematician Abraham De-
Moivre in the year 1733, but the credit of its practical application goes to French
mathematician Laplace and German astronomer Karl Gauss. It is sometimes also called
Gaussian distribution in honour of Gauss.
It is a continuous probability distribution in which the relative frequencies of a continuous
variable are distribution according to normal probability law. It is a symmetrical distribution
in which the frequencies are distributed evenly about the mean of distribution.

Properties of Normal Distribution:

1) Bell-shaped
2) Symmetric about mean
3) Continuous distribution
4) Never touches the x-axis
5) Total area under curve is 1.00
6) Approximately 68% lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean, 95% within 2
standard deviations, and 99.7% within 3 standard deviations of the mean. This is the
Empirical Rule mentioned earlier.
7) Data values represented by x which has mean mu and standard deviation sigma.

AREA UNDER THE NORMAL CURVE

The equation of the normal curve depends on mean and standard deviation and for
different values of mean and S.D. different normal curves are obtained, for this
purpose we use z-transformation, as given below:

𝒙
Z=
value 1 1.5 1.2 1.96 0.5 0.1 1.6 2 2.5
area .34134 .43319 .3849 .47500 .19146 .03983 .4452 .47725 .49379
 Example

Ques- Find the area under normal curve- if 𝒙 = 60 and σ = 10.

1. Between 60& 72
2. Between 50 & 60
3. Beyond 72

Solution-
1- between 60 and72
𝒙
for 60 …..Z = = 60-60 /10 = 0
Area at 0 = 0
𝒙
for 72…..Z = = 72-60/10 = 1.2
Area at – 1.2 = 0.3849
Area between 60 and 72= 0.3849-0
= 0.3849.

3. between 50 and 60
𝒙
For 50 …… Z = = 50-60/10 = - 1

Area = - 0.34134

𝒙
For 60…….. Z = = 60-60/10 = 0
Area = 0
Area between 50 and 60 = 0- (-0.34134)
= 0.34134
3. Beyond 72-
 𝒙
Z= = 72-60/10 = 1.2
Area at 1.2 = 0.3849
Area beyond 72 = 0.5 – 0.3849
= 0.1151

Exercise
Ques-2000 students appeared in an examination. Distribution of marks to be assumed
normal with mean 𝒙 = 30 and σ = 6.25. how many students are expected to get
marks –
1- Between 20 & 40
2- Less than 35
3- Above 50.