PRESENTED BY ,

NAME-ANKITA RATH
ROLL NO-17STAT008
P.G. DEPT. OF STATISTICS 2nd yr
 CONTENTS
 INTRODUCTION
 DEFINITION
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY
 TYPES OR WAYS OF ASSIGNING
PROBABILITY
 LIMITATIONS
WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
 Probability is the way of expressing
knowledge of belief that an event will
occur on chance.
 Probabilities are associated with
experiments where the outcome is not
known in advance.
DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY:
It is the measure of how often a particular event will happen if
something is done repeatedly.
It is defined as,
“The ratio of the number of favourable cases to the
number of all the cases”
P(E)= Number of outcomes favourable to E
Number of all possible outcomes of the experiments
 The probability P, of any event or state of nature occurring
is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.
i.e. 0≤P(event)≤1
BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY
 Random Experiment
 Possible outcome
 Sample space
 Event
 Simple or Elementary event
 Mutually Exclusive events
 Independent Events
 Dependent Events
 Exhaustive Events
 Equally likely Events
Experiment:-
A test or trial of something to discover what
happens to it under particular conditions.
Random Experiment:-
If in each trial of an experiment conducted
under identical conditions, the outcome is not
unique, but may be anyone of the possible
outcomes. Then such experiment is called a
random experiment.
Examples:-
 Tossing coin
 Throwing a die
 Selecting a card from a pack of playing cards
 Selecting a family out of a given group of families
etc.
In all these cases ,there are a number of possible
results which can occur but there is an uncertainty as
to which one of them will actually occur.
Possible Outcome:-
The result of a random experiment is called an
outcome
Example:-Tossing a coin and getting a head or
tail up is an outcome.
Sample Space:-
The set or aggregate of all possible outcomes
are known as sample space.
Example:-When we roll a die, the possible
outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5 and 6.Thus all the
outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are sample space and
each possible outcome or element in a sample
space is called sample point.
Event:-
Any possible outcome or combination of
outcomes of random experiments are termed as
events.
Example:-If a coin is tossed repeatedly, the
results isn’t unique. We may get any of the two
faces, either head or tail. Thus tossing a coin is
a random experiment or trial and getting of a
head or tail is an event.
Mutually Exclusive Events:-
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive
events when both can’t occur at the same time.
Mutually exclusive events always have a
different outcome. Such events are so that when
one happens it prevents the other from
happening.
Example:-If a coin is tossed, either the head can
be up or trial can be up, but both can’t be at the
same time.
Simple or Elementary events;-
An elementary event is an event which contains only a
single outcome in the sample space.
Examples:
a)In the experiment of drawing a token from a bag
containing 20 tokens numbered from 1 to 20.The
event of drawing a token with the number
1/2/3/4/5/6/7....20 is an elementary event.
b)In the experiment of tossing a coin , the event of
getting a head or tail is an elementary event .
Independent Events:-
A set of events is said to be independent, whose
occurrence or non-occurrence is not in anyway
influenced by the occurrence or non-occurrence
of another event.
Statistically, the probability that both events will
occur is equal to the product of their separate
probabilities.
Example:-When a coin is tossed twice, the
result of the second toss will in no way be
affected by the result of the first toss.
Let two events A & B are said to be
independent events if,
P(A and B)=P(A)*P(B)
P(A and B) means the probability of A and B
both occurring is called compound event.
Dependent Events:-
Two events are said to be dependent, if the occurrence
or non-occurrence of one event in any trial affects the
probability of the other subsequent trials.
If the occurrence of one event affects the happening of
the other events then they are said to be dependent.
Example:-The probability of drawing king from a
pack of 52cards is 4/52.The card is not put back, then
the outcome of drawing a king again is 3/51.Thus the
outcome of the first event affects the outcome of the
second event and they are dependant.
Exhaustive Events:-
The total no.of possible outcomes of a random
experiment is called exhaustive event.
Example:-In tossing a coin, the possible outcome are
head or tail, exhaustive events are 2.
Equally likely Events:-
Two or more events are said to be equally likely if the
chance of their happening is equal.
Example:-When a coin is tossed , the probability of
getting a head is ½ &
when a die is rolled the probability of getting 1 is 1/6.
Here,
P(A)=1/2
P(B)=1/6
Probability of both the events occur together=P(A)*P(B)
=(1/2)*(1/6)
=1/12
• Equally likely events are independent events.
 Types Of Probability

Classical approach to probability

Statistical(Empirical) probability
Subjective probability
Axiomatic approach to probability
Classical Approach To Probability
According to this approach the probability is the ratio of
favourable events to the total no.of equally likely events.
In tossing a coin the probability of the coin coming down is
1,of the head coming up is ½ and of the tail coming up is ½.

No.of favourable cases

P=
Total no.of equally likely cases
 If an event can occur in “a” ways and fail to occur in “b” ways
and these are equally to occur. Then the probability of the event
occurring, a/(a+b )is denoted by theoretical or mathematical
probability.
P is the probability of the event happening and Q is the
probability of it’s not happening.

P=a/(a+b) and Q=b/(a+b)

Hence, P+Q=(a+b)/(a+b)
=1
P+Q=1
Probabilities can be expressed either as ration fraction or percentage, such as
½ or 0.5 or 50%
Example:- Tossing a coin
Limitations:-
 If the various outcomes of the random experiment are not equally likely
or equally probable.
 If the exhaustive number of outcomes of the random experiment is
infinite or unknown.
Example:-
The probability that a candidate will pass in the certain test isn’t 50%,since
the two possible outcomes like success or failure(excluding the possibility of a
compartment) are not equally likely.
 The classical definition is applicable only when the events are mutually
exclusive.
 Statistical(Empirical probability)
If an experiment is performed repeatedly under essentially
homogeneous and identical conditions, then the limiting value
of the ratio of the no.of times the event occurs to the no.of
trials, as the no.of trials becomes in indefinitely large, is called
the probability of happening of the event. It being assumed that
the limit is finite and unique.
Symbolically,
If in N trials an event E happens M times then the
probability of the happening of E,denoted by
P(E)= Limit M/N
N ∞
Example:- If a machine produces 100 articles, in the
past two articles were found to be defective, then the
probability of the defective articles is 2/100 or 2% .
 The relative frequency obtained on the basis of past
experience .
Example:-If a coin is tossed for 6times,we may not get
exactly 3heads or 3 tails.But if it is tossed for a larger
no. of times, says 1000 times we can expect heads and
tails very close to 50%.
 There are certain laws according to which the occurrence or
non occurrence of the events takes place. Posterior probabilities
also called empirical probability. Which based on experiences of
the past and on experiment conducted.
Limitation:-
• The experiment conditions may not remain essentially
homogeneous and identical in a large no. of repetitions of the
experiment.
• The relative frequency m/n, may not attain a unique value no
matter however large.
Subjective Probability:-
When the probability of occurrence of the events are
assigned by individuals and are based on their personal
judgement ,wisdom and expertise etc. Then these
probabilities are called the subjective probabilities and
represent the degree of belief and the confidence.
Example:-
 You think you have an 80% chance of your best
friend calling today, because her car broke down
yesterday and she will probably need a ride.
 You think you have a 50/50 chance of getting the
job you applied for, because the other applicant is
very qualified.
 You are taking your dog to the vet today , and based
on the past experience you are pretty confident you
will need over $100 for the bill.
Axiomatic Approach to Probability:-

The probability calculations are based on the

axioms. The axiomatic probability includes the
concept of both classical and emperial
definitions of probability .
The approach based on Kolmogorov’s three
axioms,
Kolmogorov’s three axioms:
 For any event A, P(A)≥0
 When S is the sample space of an experiment ;i.e. the set of all
possible outcomes, P(S)=1
 If A and B are mutually exclusive outcomes,
P(A ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)
REFERENCES-
FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL
STATISTICS BY S.C. GUPTA & V.K. KAPOOR
THANK YOU