To Lecture on

Probability & Statistics

 Lecture on Basic concepts of
Probability
Objective
 Define & understand the basics concepts of
probability.
 Solve problems on probability using applicable
methods
 Motivation
 If we carry out an experiment under essentially
homogeneous and similar conditions, we generally
come across two types of situations:
 The results/outcome is unique or certain called
deterministic or predictable.
 The result is not unique but may be one of the several
possible outcomes called probabilistic.
An Important branch of Mathematics which numerically
measures the uncertainty is called the
“Theory of Probability”
Basic concepts in probability theory
 Random Experiment: If in each trial of an experiment conducted
under identical conditions, the outcome is not unique, but may be any one
of the possible outcomes, then such an experiment is called a random
experiment.
 Outcome: The result of a random experiment will be called an outcome.
 Trial and Event: Any particular performance of an random experiment
is called a trial and outcome or combination of outcome are termed as
events.
 Exhaustive Events or Cases: The total number of possible outcomes
of a random experiment is known as the exhaustive events or cases.
 Favourable Events or Cases: The number of cases favourable to an
event in a trial is the number of outcomes which entail the happening of
the event.
 Mutually exclusive events: Events are said to be mutually
exclusive if the happening of any one of them precludes the happening
of all the other i.e., if no two or more of them can happen
simultaneously in the same trial.
 Equally Likely Events: Outcomes of trial are said to be equally
likely if taking into consideration all the relevant evidences, there is no
reason to expect one in preference to the others.
 Independent Events: Several events are said to be independent if
the happening (or non-happening) of an event is not affected by the
supplementary knowledge concerning the occurrence of the remaining
events.
 Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random/
statistical experiment is called a sample space. It is represented by S.
Consider rolling of a fare dice

Here the experiment is rolling of a fare dice.

Outcome of the experiment is one of the following 1,2,3,4,5,6
Trial is rolling of a fare dice.
Exhaustive events are 6 outcomes viz 1,2,3,4,5,6
Favourable cases depends on the problem e.g. If we are asked to calculate
probability of coming of even number then number of favourable cases are
viz 2,4,6
In throwing of a dice all the six faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually
exclusive.
All the six faces are equally likely in throwing of a dice.
When a dice is thrown twice, the result of the first throw does not affect the
result of the second throw.
Classical Probability