4.

4 Probability
Probability is a way of describing uncertainty in numerical terms. In this section, we review some of the terminology
used in elementary probability theory.
A probability experiment, also called a random experiment, is an experiment for which the result, or
outcome, is uncertain. We assume that all of the possible outcomes of an experiment are known before the
experiment is performed, but which outcome will actually occur is unknown. The set of all possible outcomes of a
random experiment is called the sample space, and any particular set of outcomes is called an event. For example,
consider a cube with faces numbered 1 to 6, called a 6-sided die. Rolling the die once is an experiment in which
there are 6 possible outcomes: either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 will appear on the top face. The sample space for this
experiment is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here are two examples of events for this experiment.
Event 1: Rolling the number 4. This event has only one outcome.
Event 2: Rolling an odd number. This event has three outcomes.
The probability of an event is a number from 0 to 1, inclusive, that indicates the likelihood that the event occurs
when the experiment is performed. The greater the number, the more likely the event.

Example 4.4.1: Consider the following experiment. A box contains 15 pieces of paper, each of which has the
name of one of the 15 students in a high school class consisting of 7 juniors and 8 seniors, all with different
names. The instructor will shake the box for a while and then choose a piece of paper at random and read the
name. Here the sample space is the set of 15 names. The assumption of random selection means that each of the
names is equally likely to be selected. If this assumption is made, then the probability that any one particular
name will be selected is equal to

For any event E, the probability that E occurs is often written as .

For the sample space in this example, , that is, the probability that event E occurs, is equal to

If J is the event that the student selected is a junior, then

In general, for a random experiment with a finite number of possible outcomes, if each outcome is equally likely
to occur, then the probability that an event E occurs is defined by

In the case of rolling a 6-sided die, if the die is “fair,” then the 6 outcomes are equally likely. So the probability
of rolling a 4 is and the probability of rolling an odd number (that is, rolling a 1, 3, or 5) can be calculated as

The following are six general facts about probability.

Fact 1: If an event E is certain to occur, then .

Fact 2: If an event E is certain .
Fact 3: If an event E is possible but not certain to occur, then .
Fact 4: The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to .
Fact 5: If E is an event, then the probability of E is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in E.
Fact 6: The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes of an experiment is 1.

If E and F are two events of an experiment, we consider two other events related to E and F.

Event 1: The event that both E and F occur, that is, outcomes in the set
 Event 2: The event that E or F, or both, occur, that is, outcomes in the set

Events that cannot occur at the same time are said to be mutually exclusive. For example, if a 6-sided die is
rolled once, the event of rolling an odd number and the event of rolling an even number are mutually exclusive. But
rolling a 4 and rolling an even number are not mutually exclusive, since 4 is an outcome that is common to both
events.
For events E and F, we have the following three rules.
Rule 1: P(either E or F, or both, occur) = + P(F) − P(both E and F occur), which is the inclusion-exclusion
principle applied to probability.
Rule 2: If E and F are mutually exclusive, then P(both E and F occur) = 0, and therefore, P(either E or F, or
both, occur) = + P(F).
Rule 3: E and F are said to be independent if the occurrence of either event does not affect the occurrence of the
other. If two events E and F are independent, then P(both E and F occur) = P(F). For example, if a fair 6-
sided die is rolled twice, the event E of rolling a 3 on the first roll and the event F of rolling a 3 on the second
roll are independent, and the probability of rolling a 3 on both rolls is In this example,
the experiment is actually “rolling the die twice,” and each outcome is an ordered pair of results like “4 on the
first roll and 1 on the second roll.” But event E restricts only the first roll—to a 3—having no effect on the
second roll; similarly, event F restricts only the second roll—to a 3—having no effect on the first roll.
Note that if and , then events E and F cannot be both mutually exclusive and independent.
For if E and F are independent, then , but if E and F are mutually
exclusive, then P(both E and F occur) = 0.
It is common to use the shorter notation “E and F” instead of “both E and F occur” and use “E or F” instead of
“E or F or both occur.” With this notation, we can restate the previous three rules as follows.
Rule 1: P(E or F) = + P(F) − P(E and F)
Rule 2: P(E or F) = + P(F) if E and F are mutually exclusive.
Rule 3: P(E and F) = P(F) if E and F are independent.

Example 4.4.2: If a fair 6-sided die is rolled once, let E be the event of rolling a 3 and let F be the event of rolling
an odd number. These events are independent. This is because rolling a 3 makes certain that the event of
rolling an odd number occurs. Note that , since

Example 4.4.3: A 12-sided die, with faces numbered 1 to 12, is to be rolled once, and each of the 12 possible
outcomes is equally likely to occur. The probability of rolling a 4 is so the probability of rolling a number that
is a 4 is

The probability of rolling a number that is either a multiple of 5 (that is, rolling a 5 or a 10) or an odd number
(that is, rolling a 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, or 11) is equal to

P(multiple of 5) + P(odd) − P(multiple of 5 and odd)

Another way to calculate this probability is to notice that rolling a number that is either a multiple of 5 or an odd
number is the same as rolling one of the seven numbers 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11, which are equally likely
outcomes. So by using the ratio formula to calculate the probability, the required probability is

Example 4.4.4: Consider an experiment with events A, B, and C for which P(A) = 0.23, P(B) = 0.40, and P(C) =
0.85.
 Suppose that events A and B are mutually exclusive and events B and C are independent. What is P(A or B) and
P(B or C)?

Solution: Since A and B are mutually exclusive,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.23 + 0.40 = 0.63

Since B and C are independent, P(B and C) = P(B)P(C). So

P(B or C) = P(B) + P(C) − P(B and C) = P(B) + P(C) − P(B) P(C)

Therefore,

P(B or C) = 0.40 + 0.85 − (0.40)(0.85) = 1.25 − 0.34 = 0.91

Example 4.4.5: Suppose that there is a 6-sided die that is weighted in such a way that each time the die is rolled,
the probabilities of rolling any of the numbers from 1 to 5 are all equal, but the probability of rolling a 6 is twice
the probability of rolling a 1. When you roll the die once, the 6 outcomes are not equally likely. What are the
probabilities of the 6 outcomes?

Solution: Let p equal the probability of rolling a 1. Then each of the probabilities of rolling a 2, 3, 4, or 5 is equal
to p, and the probability of rolling a 6 is equal to 2p. Therefore, since the sum of the probabilities of all possible
outcomes is 1, it follows that

1 = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) = p + p + p + p + p + 2p = 7p

So the probability of rolling each of the numbers from 1 to 5 is and the probability of rolling a 6 is

Example 4.4.6: Suppose that you roll the weighted 6-sided die from Example 4.4.5 twice. What is the probability
that the first roll will be an odd number and the second roll will be an even number?

Solution: To calculate the probability that the first roll will be odd and the second roll will be even, note that
these two events are independent. To calculate the probability that both occur, you must multiply the probabilities
of the two independent events. First compute the individual probabilities.

Then

Two events that happen sequentially are not always independent. The occurrence of the first event may affect the
occurrence of the second event. In this case, the probability that both events happen is equal to the probability that
the first event happens multiplied by the probability that, given that the first event has already happened, the second
event will happen as well.

Example 4.4.7: A box contains 5 orange disks, 4 red disks, and 1 blue disk. You are to select two disks at random
and without replacement from the box. What is the probability that the first disk you select will be red and the
second disk you select will be orange?

Solution: To solve, you need to calculate the following two probabilities and then multiply them.

1. The probability that the first disk selected from the box will be red
2. The probability that the second disk selected from the box will be orange, given that the first disk selected
 from the box is red

The probability that the first disk you select will be red is If the first disk you select is red, there will be 5
orange disks, 3 red disks, and 1 blue disk left in the box, for a total of 9 disks. Therefore, the probability that the
second disk you select will be orange, given that the first disk you selected is red, is Multiply the two

probabilities to get

4.5 Distributions of Data, Random Variables, and Probability Distributions

In data analysis, variables whose values depend on chance play an important role in linking distributions of data to
probability distributions. Such variables are called random variables. We begin with a review of distributions of
data.

Distributions of Data
Recall that relative frequency distributions given in a table or histogram are a common way to show how numerical
data are distributed. In a histogram, the areas of the bars indicate where the data are concentrated. The histogram of
the relative frequency distribution of the number of children in each of 25 families in Data Analysis Figure 4 below
illustrates a small group of data, with only 6 distinct data values and 25 data values altogether. (Note: This is the
second occurrence of Data Analysis Figure 4, it was first encountered in Example 4.1.10.)

Data Analysis Figure 4 (repeated)

Many groups of data are much larger than 25 and have many more than 6 possible values, which are often
measurements of quantities like length, money, or time.

Example 4.5.1: The lifetimes of 800 electric devices were measured. Because the lifetimes had many different
values, the measurements were grouped into 50 intervals, or classes, of 10 hours each: 601 to 610 hours, 611 to
620 hours, and so on, up to 1,091 to 1,100 hours. The resulting relative frequency distribution, as a histogram, has
50 thin bars and many different bar heights, as shown in Data Analysis Figure 11 below.