Simple random sampling

（1）抽样方法
Stratified random sampling

Time-series data：data taken over a period of time

（2）Data
Cross-sectional data：data taken at a single point of time
1、Sampling
① Sampling error of the mean= sample mean- population mean
② The sample statistic itself is a random variable

（3）Sample statistic 特点 ③ Central Limit Theory ： n≥30→sample mean~N

④ Standard error=

① Unbiasedness：expected value of the estimator

= the parameter that are trying to estimate

（1）Desirable properties ② Efficiency ：离散程度较小

③ Consistency：随着 n 增加，准确性增加
Point estimate
（2）Estimation
Confidence interval= Point estimate ± Reliability factor x Standard deviation

（3）Central limit theorem：

方差已知用Z，方差未知用T，非正态总体小样本不可估计
（4）选择分布的标准
如果n>=30,都可以用Z
2、Estimation ① Symmetrical
② Degrees of freedom （df）：n-1
（5）T分布
③ Less peaked than a normal distribution fatter tails
④随着自由度的增大，T分布的形状接近标准正态分布
① Data-mining bias
② Sample selection bias
（6）估计的 Bias ③ Survivorship bias
④ Look-ahead bias
⑤ Time-period bias

Two-tailed:

步骤一：提出假设 One-tailed:

is what we want to reject

步骤二：计算 Test statistic =

3、Hypothesis test （检验μ） 步骤三：画分布找到 Critical value

Reject Ho： if | test statistic|>critical value ，sample value
is significantly different from the hypotesized value

Fail to reject Ho： if |test statistic|<critical value，sample value

is not significantly different from the hypotesized value
步骤四：判断

Increase the sample size→Type Ⅰ error & Type Ⅰ error ↓

4、TypeⅠerror & Type Ⅱ error
P（Type Ⅰ error）↓→ P（Type Ⅱ error）↑

P-value < α 时，reject Ho

5、P-value

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6、其他检验

Nonparametric tests ：Test things other than parameter values.

①Data do not meet distributional assumptions

②Data are given in ranks
7、Nonparametric tests
非参数检验适用情况
③The hypothesis we are addressing does not concern a parameter.
Parametric tests vs. Nonparametric tests