102nd Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board (TRB), Washington, D.C.

January 08-12, 2022

Impact of Grid Size on Spatiotemporal Prediction of Fine Particulate Matter

Rashmi Choudhary1, Amit Agarwal2

Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India Email: 1 rashmi.ce@sric.iitr.ac.in, 2 amitfce@iitr.ac.in

Introduction Methodology Results

❑ This study shows spatio-temporal prediction for fine particulate matter pollutants
performed using deep-learning techniques by dividing area in different grid sizes.
❑ Usage of hybrid CNN-LSTM model is proposed to improve the performance of
prediction models.
❑ Study area is divided in different sized hexagonal grids to understand the effect of grid
size on prediction accuracy.
Study Area
❑ South Delhi district area of Delhi, India, with four static monitors.
❑ Area is divided into fifteen hexagonal grids of 5 km, fifty grids of 3 km, and three-
hundred-twenty-six grids of 1 km.
❑ Prepared dataset was divided into 80%-10%-10% for training (learning dataset for models), validation
(hyper- parameters tuning), and testing (model evaluation) of models, respectively.
❑ A hybrid Convolution Neural Network – Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) model is developed to
predict PM2.5.
❑ In the hybrid model, a 2D CNN model is employed with convolution, max pooling, and batch normalization
layers, and a multilayer LSTM model is employed, which uses the output of CNN as its input.
Study area
(Fig 1) (Static Monitors)
❑ Comparison of actual and predicted values for cells of different-sized grids showed that the CNN-LSTM model for the 1 km grid performed better than for 3 km
and 5 km grids.
❑ R2 values varied from 0.8 to 0.95, with a minor difference between the 1 km and 3 km grid.
❑ The Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error indices were used to evaluate the accuracy, and it was observed that the 3 km grid performed better
than
the other two grids.
❑ When the predicted values were compared to real-world data collected from the static monitor for the duration not included in model development, it was
Input data
observed that both 1 km and 3 km grids were better than the 5 km grid.

Hexagonal
tessellations PM2.5
PM10

Temperature Fig 3: Actual vs. predicted values for one cell from each scenario (1 km grid, 3 km grid, 5 Fig 5: Mean absolute error values for hexagonal grids of 1 km, 3 km and
3 km 5 km Relative 5 km grid) for time period from February 5, 2021, to April 30, 2021. km (from left to right)
1 km
Fig 1: Study area in Delhi, India humidity Wind
Speed Wind
Data direction
❑ Historical data of particulate matter concentrations and meteorological parameters Pressure
was collected from the static monitors. Cell size in km
❑ Normalization of data was done using min-max scalar function.
𝑋𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚 = ( 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 )/( 𝑋𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 )
where, Xnorm is the normalized value, Xi is the existing value, Xm in and Xm ax are Model Fig 4: Results of CNN-LSTM for one cell from each spatial resolution (1 km grid, 3
the minimum and maximum value of X parameter.
❑ Inverse distance weighing and kriging interpolation were used to create the Development km grid, and 5 km grid) for two months ranging from May 01, 2021, to June 30,
Fig 6: Root Mean square error values for hexagonal grids of 1 km, 3
dataset for each cell of different sized grids. km and 5 km (from left to right)
Input data
(Past 72
Tab 1: Correlation between parameters hours data)
Predicted
PM2.5
Conclusions Future work
PM2.5 It is observed that the proposed architecture of CNN-LSTM provides accurate predictions for PM 2.5.
Variables PM10 Temp RH WS WD BP (next one ❑ The prediction models considering dynamic monitoring data can assist

Output (7 x 1) +
Next hour PM is predicted based on previous 72 h data.

Dropout (0.25)
Convolution

Convolution

hour)
Max pooling

Max pooling
normalization

PM2.5 1 normalization

Dense layer
The model is flexible, and a dynamic monitoring network can be accommodated in the proposed framework.

Reshaping
travelers in receiving information about air pollution in real time.

Sigmoid
PM10 0.88 1 Aggregation of data in smaller grids can result in better accuracy than in larger- sized grids.
Batch

LSTM

LSTM

LSTM
Batch

Hexagonal grids were used as they represent the earth’s curvature. ❑ These models can be explored for different times of the day, various seasons,
Temp -0.57 -0.31 1
RH 0.24 0.041 -0.53 1 etc.
WS -0.1 -0.075 0.053 -0.2 1
Acknowledgement
WD 0.05 0.047 -0.062 -0.079 -0.062 1
BP 0.39 0.3 -0.57 0.094 0.16 0.23 1 ❑ The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support by Science and
Convolution neural network for feature LSTM for time-series prediction
PM2.5: particulate matter of size 2.5 µm or smaller in µg/m ,
3
RH: relative humidity in extraction Engineering Research Board (SERB) for this study (Grant number -
%, PM10: particulate matter of size 10 µm or smaller in µg/m 3, WS: wind speed in m/s,
Temp: temperature in ◦ C, WD: wind direction, Fig 2: Study methodology with hybrid CNN-LSTM neural network. SRG/2020/001147).
BP: barometric pressure in mmHg

Poster ID TRBAM 23-03150 Contact at: